Lunatic+ playlog/guide/walkthrough - COMPLETED

[Knusperkeks]

If you're concerned about hit this much, take a skill asset and see where it gets you. I did it in my last lunatic file and it was great. It's essentially guaranteed offense in the form of a few points of hit. On average it should get you about 3-6% true hit, depending on the situation. Didn't check the numbers, just a hunch here.

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

When focusing on early Robin supports, do keep in mind that s/he gains them at different rates depending on whether Robin is male or female (particularly, same gender C supports can be done in one map, while opposite genders need two or a Seed/Tile). At the moment I think we're all focusing on female (who's better all around; Chrom and Fred take two chapters either way but Sully and Sumia can be done in one) but it could be useful to keep this in mind since build options greatly increase after earlygame.

Tonight I'll do some number crunching to see exactly what the new strat's odds of success for turn 1 are. I'm pretty sure I know all the numbers off the top of my head but if someone with a Cht.2 save could post them to make sure... (Assuming -Skl Robin with ~70 listed on the Barb after Lissa bonus and base everyone else)

Oh, right, I keep forgetting the way that table works with the 1 SP counting as part of the support rank itself. so M!Robin would take a bit of effort over chapters 1 and 2 to get Sully, but I guess that means substituting her for Vaike when F!Robin fights the boss means bringing that C support to chapter 3. A combination 3Str/2Skl/2Spd/3Def pairup certainly sounds like something that could possibly be useful somewhere, anyway.

As for the numbers, what are you looking for? The enemy stats? The wiki does have them if that's what you're looking for. If not, I can boot up my chapter 2 save when I get home and transcribe whatever it is you need.

If you're concerned about hit this much, take a skill asset and see where it gets you. I did it in my last lunatic file and it was great. It's essentially guaranteed offense in the form of a few points of hit. On average it should get you about 3-6% true hit, depending on the situation. Didn't check the numbers, just a hunch here.

Well, hit is a concern, but not to the exclusion of other things. A +Skl might help with this particular situation, but there are thesholds that +Spd and +Def help her reach that make the trade-off not really worth it. It's more of a question of "How much hit can we get away with while still retaining our preferred Assets?"

[Knusperkeks]

So you want to bolster your strength instead of fixing your weakness, then there are certain risks you have to take.

It doesn't make sense to devise a strategy for multiple assets. Instead, I would try to come up with a specific strategy "x" for defense asset, "y" for speed, etc.

[Interceptor]

Next, I need to figure out how to herd the second wave around. As it is, I find they get bored of chasing Chrom and start to run amok right before or right after the boss dies. If they all went in the same direction, it'd be okay, but peel off and split pretty randomly between pursuing the two groups.

If you have a minimal left-side team (and you can, since the boss isn't THAT threatening), you can just ferry people across the water with Robin, who can fight on the water effectively with a healer safely behind her. That's generally what I did if more than one stray broke off from Chrom (obv if it was just one stray, she can handle him easily), and generally hits the reset button on them. I also tend to drag the boss all the way to the left when fighting him, which helps a little bit.

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

So you want to bolster your strength instead of fixing your weakness, then there are certain risks you have to take.

It doesn't make sense to devise a strategy for multiple assets. Instead, I would try to come up with a specific strategy "x" for defense asset, "y" for speed, etc.

Nah, it is trying to cover the weakness. It's just that picking +Skl causes other weaknesses that have to be made up for (and can be much harder to make up for at that). Also, the current strategies are already kind of skewed because Spd and Def are so valuable. Also, there are times when RNG happens and strategy X stops being able to apply for +Def, because LV14 Robin only has 3 Def over base. :P

If you have a minimal left-side team (and you can, since the boss isn't THAT threatening), you can just ferry people across the water with Robin, who can fight on the water effectively with a healer safely behind her. That's generally what I did if more than one stray broke off from Chrom (obv if it was just one stray, she can handle him easily), and generally hits the reset button on them. I also tend to drag the boss all the way to the left when fighting him, which helps a little bit.

He actually kind of is if he has Luna+. Anyway, I did do that a few times (and pretty much always hang out on the far left), but the problem there is that the enemy then starts homing in on the guys hiding out in the lower left corner. Which is fine for a bit because they can run right, but then the remaining guys by Chrom often decide it'd be funner to chase after them too. Really, I just need to figure out how to manipulate them into chasing in one direction and I'll be set.

[Interceptor]

Really? Robin can definitely take a 25mt Luna+ hit to the face and survive (otherwise you couldn't handle the Barbarians), and Vulnerary + Lissa should keep her out of the danger zone after Enemy Phase. Wouldn't it just be annoying, or am I neglecting to consider something?

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

Right, it won't kill her, but healing resources are running a bit tight. With my current test, I have enough Vulneraries to do that twice, which is enough to take down the boss. The main concern is that it leaves her mostly dead, so after the boss dies, if there are Luna+ mooks approaching, a staff heal might not be enough (depending on who breaks off, of course). The other units can soak a few hits, but that only goes so far when 3-4 decide to break off. Robin's gotta help 'em out eventually, which means potentially taking quite a few Luna+ hits. Part of it is also me trying to get as much EXP into Robin as possible, so getting the enemy into a more manageable line lets her pick up more in a controlled fashion.

[Czar_Yoshi]

So you want to bolster your strength instead of fixing your weakness, then there are certain risks you have to take.

Spd and Def are only strong points for Robin if you take assets in them, otherwise they're just average, and one of them really needs to be a strength. There's a big difference between improving the RNG odds of something you're already capable of doing (like KOing that Barb on the mountain) and allowing yourself to be able to do completely new things: no amount of extra Skl will push you over any solid KO/survival thresholds.

If you have a minimal left-side team (and you can, since the boss isn't THAT threatening), you can just ferry people across the water with Robin, who can fight on the water effectively with a healer safely behind her. That's generally what I did if more than one stray broke off from Chrom (obv if it was just one stray, she can handle him easily), and generally hits the reset button on them. I also tend to drag the boss all the way to the left when fighting him, which helps a little bit.

What I've been doing is engaging the Merc with Robin from two spaces down (so no counterattack) and moving into position to fight the Boss just to the left of the bridge as soon as it won't cause the whole gang to break off. I can then kite the Boss left along the river since I've got room to go backward, and because there's room for the squishies to move there they can help out with taking down the mooks. There's usually a spot to Robin's left where Lissa will be safe to stay on staff duty, and if the Boss lacks Hawkeye (or Luna+, or both) then sometimes it's possible for Robin to KO a mook at range while still keeping the Boss's attention. Alternately, if Robin needs to get out of his range for a turn to kill something dangerous/have an extra turn of healing and the Boss lacks Luna+, Sully with a Stahl support (and an optional Bronze Sword) can take a round from him to keep him from wandering off instead (if he does have Luna+, Sully needs either an HP or Def level above base).

It's pretty hard to get a perfect turn-by-turn strat for the top because there's so much randomness in the enemy movement, but since the biggest actual threat there (besides Gamble) is having squishies be gunned down, I've generally been able to get by with kiting as long as nobody sneaks up on me (if the squishies aren't behind Robin to the left, leaving them about 1-2 turns northeast of the bottom corner unpaired and in rescue chain position gives me a lot of time to react to anything coming their way).

[Knusperkeks]

Spd and Def are only strong points for Robin if you take assets in them, otherwise they're just average, and one of them really needs to be a strength. There's a big difference between improving the RNG odds of something you're already capable of doing (like KOing that Barb on the mountain) and allowing yourself to be able to do completely new things: no amount of extra Skl will push you over any solid KO/survival thresholds.

I know that. That's why I mentioned doing it in regular lunatic. I'm just trying to fill the role of the person who just blurts out something random in hopes of getting some serendipity out of it, since everyone else is wracking their brains over this topic for quite some time know.

It's like when you work on your thesis and can't come up with anything, but as soon as you leave the room and do something unrelated, a spark of inspiration suddenly ignites in your mind and you have a trace to follow since you changed perspective, either figuratively or literally.

[Czar_Yoshi]

Well, I won't deny that I've seen that work many times before. Carry on, then.

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

Okay, giving Fred the Bronze Sword doesn't work. It tanks his damage too much against the Soldier he counterattacks, so now Robin can't finish him off without a dual strike.

[Czar_Yoshi]

Does Robin not double the Soldier?

Fred should be doing 16-5 =11 damage to the Soldier, putting it at 21 HP. It has 1 Res, and Robin should have well over the 12 Atk needed for that to be a KO. Even if the Soldier is on a forest it would only take 13 Atk on Robin, which I think is what the stats call for.

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

Not at 11 Spd. Chrom with C support gives +4, which only lets Robin double the Barbs. Soldiers have 11 Spd, so Robin will need even more to double them. Spd Asset will very likely hit 12, but any other build is probably gonna have a bit of trouble even getting to 11.

[Czar_Yoshi]

...Well, Robin potentially can get one more level from the Barb kill. But yeah, if you only have 11 Spd then I guess you can't go for it (so it's a thing you'd decide on the fly if you're Spd blessed rather than a stock tactic).

[Cat1803]

Having more than 11 Spd isn't a tall order for a +Spd Avatar, IIRC.

Is +Mag worth considering here? I did a few test runs with +Mag and Robin had enough Mag to KO the Barbarian without Chrom's help four times out of five, as well as 11 Spd thanks to +Mag's bonus Spd growth and getting in nine levels before Ch. 2. It also made hitting the Mag thresholds for Ch. 5 far easier.

...Of course, +Mag won't be all that useful later on outside of Levin Swords as a Merc/BK unless Robin decides to be a long-term Magic user (thinking Tactician -> Merc -> BK -> Sorc or Tactician -> Merc -> DM -> Sorc). Especially since for the purposes of Interceptor's run, Miriel/Laurent are the main magic users. +Mag also won't be too useful for Lucina and Morgan unless they go magical, which is also unlikely (especially for Lucina since she wants P. Falchion).

But hey, it's a shot in the dark, I guess. +Mag and Mag-oriented Avatar/kids may be more useful in a MaMU Galeforce-oriented run or some other run that isn't using Miriel/Laurent or is otherwise in need of Magic.

...I actually may try out a run with a +Mag MaMU and one with a +Mag FeMU for kicks and giggles, since I have a better idea of what I'm even doing now. Classpath suggestions for either? I was able to get Galeforce on my FeMU last time and would still like to do so, so I may just run Tacician -> Merc -> Bow Knight -> Dark Flier -> Sorc, which is only barely different from my last run (where I went with Sniper at the end instead). MaMU would probably just go to Sorc after BK, or promote to Hero instead for Sol. Thoughts? I'll probably record my information in a notebook and post it all in one place when I'm done, and I think I'll do the FeMU run first.

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

...Well, Robin potentially can get one more level from the Barb kill. But yeah, if you only have 11 Spd then I guess you can't go for it (so it's a thing you'd decide on the fly if you're Spd blessed rather than a stock tactic).

Fair enough. I guess I'm just trying not to take too many stats for granted, so I'm looking at the rough averages (which is why I mentioned +Spd being quite likely to hit 12 because it should actually be at 13 at that point).

Is +Mag worth considering here? I did a few test runs with +Mag and Robin had enough Mag to KO the Barbarian without Chrom's help four times out of five, as well as 11 Spd thanks to +Mag's bonus Spd growth and getting in nine levels before Ch. 2. It also made hitting the Mag thresholds for Ch. 5 far easier.

I've actually been idly considering other Assets, although I haven't really done much for math (started looking at values vs a +HP build, but didn't do a bit more than a cursory glance). I'll definitely have to keep that in mind for Mag, though. One of my own reclass routes would even see long-term benefit because it ends at Dark Knight.

[Cat1803]

Base +Mag Robin has 7 Mag and 6 Spd. Assuming accurate growth rates, a Robin that hits Level 10 by Chapter 2 should have +5.4 Mag and +4.95 Spd if my calculations are correct (and if SF's numbers on 60% Mag and 55% Spd are correct). Robin needs, again if I haven't messed up, 12 Mag (or 11 Mag with C Tomes) to 2HKO the Barbarian if he has 27 HP left. Robin should have no problem breaking the Mag threshold needed to ORKO the Barbarian without Chrom's help, assuming she has enough Spd to double him. With a little RNG nudging (can we consider +4.95 as +5 for statistical purposes?), Robin should break the 11 Spd threshold as well.

Edit: These numbers assume you've taken a flaw that doesn't affect Spd or Mag. Hopefully my math is right otherwise.

Edited February 26, 2015 by Cat1803

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

I'd say you can more or less consider it 5, yeah. What I've been doing is counting the decimals as percent odds of having the next level of stat. That's why I normally consider reaching 11 Spd iffy for most of the builds (since they'll be at 10.5 at best, which is a coin flip). +Mag definitely looks like it's got favourable odds going for it in the offense department. And given that Robin generally avoids too much face tanking with my Prologue and chapter 1 strat (and a reasonably moderate amount in Interceptor's chapter 2 strat), getting away with it might just be feasible. I think I may be sold on +Mag/-Skl enough to trial a run tonight (it would also give me an excuse to redo chapter 1 to snag those screenshots for my guide).

[Cat1803]

It definitely seems reasonable. I've run through early game several times and the only consistent assets in terms of reaching that Spd threshold were +Spd and +Mag (I didn't do +Res). +HP, +Str, +Skl, and +Def have honestly been all over the place (I picked flaws that didn't affect Spd, such as Skl/Def/Lck).

...If I increase my willingness to reset for stats, I generally don't let my avatar past the prologue without 10 Spd, so another point of Spd in two levels gained in Chapter 1 isn't too unreasonable either. I think I'll start a run now and see where it goes.

[Interceptor]

I'd suggest using a binomial calculator for stuff like that. I like this one for quick calulations.

"Probability of success" is the growth rate (in decimal), "number of trials" are the total level-ups you gain, and "number of success" are how many stat-ups you need to hit the threshold. So it would be 0.55/9/5 for a Robin that starts at 6 SPD, gets 9 level-ups, and needs +5 to hit the cut-off.

You want "Cumulative Probability: P(X >= 5)", because that's the chance she hits the threshold or overshoots it. Chance is 62.1% in this case, better than half the time. But that also means a 37.9% failure rate. You can combine that with the probabilities for the other required stat (SPD) and get a master percentage for the whole shebang.

[Cat1803]

I think I'll need to study that a bit more before it makes sense. I like math but I'm pretty awful at statistics and will probably need to go over the calculator and some other stuff on the site before I fully grasp it.

This is why I changed my major from math to biology

[Interceptor]

Take a look at the FAQ and the examples on that page; they will help you understand how it works. You can also do a few toy examples in your head, like map out the result of a few trials of coin flips. If you need more clarification or have something else to crunch, you can post here and I can detail how you'd input it.

But anyway, that's basically how your hypothetical will play out. If you need 5 +SPD procs over 9 level-ups, two times out of five you are going to miss the mark for Chapter 2. That's kinda why I use SPD asset, heh. The chance of you missing the 11 SPD threshold after nine level-ups, is only about 2.5%, if you are going +SPD/SKL.

Edited February 26, 2015 by Interceptor

[Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi]

Heh, so Speed remains Fire Emblem's god stat. I guess since I'm going to reliability, I'll probably need to swap over to +Spd, especially since my current strats make Def a bit less important by comparison. Also, thanks for linking that calculator.

[Cat1803]

I think I may switch back to +Spd as well. I've gotten the stats I need three times in a row... but not the C Support with Chrom because he refuses to like Female Robin (I went out of my way to get five battles with him paired up with FeMU in Chapter 1, and he was adjacent to/paired up with her for a good part of the prologue). And without the C Support... she can't double.

+Spd is going to be more useful in the long-term, as it stands. Even when I go through Dark Flier, I'd rather end with Sniper or Assassin.

Still not sure what to do about Chapter 5, though. That Mag threshold for Thoron OHKO is really high - I use full renown and had to use Spirit Dust AND Naga's Tear AND Tiki's Tear (Dang you, lack of Magic Tonics!) to make it work the last four times.

I'll just have to get better at rigging my stats, I guess. It's something I'd rather not do (I'd love to save that Dust for someone like Miriel/Lissa/Maribelle), but the Mag required for not-getting-boned-by-counter-in-Chapter-5 is brutal. I could make a conscious effort to get Tomes to A, but I'd be robbing Miriel of experience in her best training chapter. *Sigh*

One way to make this more feasible is to just go with the 15 Mag threshold and reset if the Barbarians that will be attacking Robin on EP have counter. You'd still have to get ten +Mag levels in 14-16 level-ups at a 50% growth, though (or eight if you're using the Dust).

[Czar_Yoshi]

Just to make sure, is your resetless condition specifically trying to make any given playthrough have a decent chance of success, or just to get a recorded resetless run? Because if it's the latter, early resets and stat manipulation should be on the table- I'd consider anything through Cht.3 to be roughly fair game, especially the Prologue.

Thoron OHKOes: If we're going for a 1000 Renown context then forged Thoron likely won't even be on the map (you'll have to use Mjolnir instead, which will prevent Miriel from training). But keep in mind that OHKOing things is merely very useful and not a catch-all, since Aegis+ can still ruin your day- when I did Cht.5 Rescueless I was only getting them on Wyverns thanks to Rexcalibur. Either way, you won't want to get by just standing on the Fort, Ricken and Maribelle are both capable of chipping in and Fred likely won't need backup on the bottom after Cht.2 so Robin can get reinforcements for PPO (including possibly Chrom, who with a Sumia B support is a pretty big help).