After doing a comprehensive analysis of dondon's Chapter 12 run, I've got to conclude that he seriously underrepresented the sheer amount of luck involved with a successful four-turn completion.
Hit True Hit
72 84.6
73 85.69
92 98.8
92 98.8
92 98.8
76 88.72
76 88.72
50* 50.5
30 18.3
50 then 90* 50.5 then 98.1
93x2 (one hits) ~100
74 86.74
75 87.75
77 89.65
60 68.4
2 (crit) 2
90 98.1
91 98.47
78 90.54
78 90.54
Those are all the hits that absolutely
have to land.
* -> dondon didn't make this clear, but the enemy PK and mercenary have no preference between attacking Hector versus Matthew (I'm assuming it's a 50/50 split). If the mercenary hits, the PK will always follow after; but even if the mercenary chooses Hector, the PK may still got for Matty.
And the final odds are... *drumroll*
TOTAL: .000186240495794
You're not reading that wrong: without any RNG abuse, the odds of a C.12 four-turn completion are about 2% in 1%, or .018%. That's something like one in ten thousand. In other words, dondon RNG abused (and all of you who wish to do a minimum-turn run need to).
Edited by Jaffar7, 10 February 2011 - 04:01 PM.