1108 replies to this topic

[Kaoz]

I wouldn't be entirely averse with a lynch against Rapier. My voting priority at the moment is Snike >> Rapier > Kaoz > Manix.

Kaoz, you're in there because I don't quite like how hard you're pushing this lynch on Manix. You're saying that if we lynch correctly and Manix is mafia, we only get one mislynch. If we lynch Manix and he's town, we go from 9-4 to 7-4 counting in the mafia NK. That also gives us only 1 mislynch. And, we're put in that situation next cycle instead of two cycles after that. I think you're greatly underestimating what might happen if we lynch Manix and he flips town.

I think I acknowledged that at some point... my main concern was the scenario where he is mafia and we mislynch. Let's see... if we're assuming that the probability for him being Mafia is 50%, the probability for that scenario is around 12.5%, we would be out of mislynches in that case. Then there are a bunch of scenarios where we go from two mislynches to one mislynch, and finally the best case scenario where we stay at two mislynches.

Also I don't necessarily mind disucssing alternatives. As I said in my second (I think) post, I'm not too fond of Rapier, so if people feel that a 12.5% chance is low enough to be disregarded, I'd likely go that way.

[eclipse]

I'm still not wholly in favor of a Rapier lynch, mostly because he's also stupidly paranoid (which can go either way). However, I'm seeing precious little discussion from everyone that isn't Kaoz. Speak, dammit.

[BamBamMan]

We go for 88% hit chances in Fire Emblem all the time, don't we? I think we should let Manix go for now. Even in the worst case scenario, where we mislynch and he flips mafia, and we have no mislynches left, we're not going to mislynch for the next two cycles, because we know Marth and Manix are mafia. Yes, maybe we won't get all that much discussion going in those two cycles, but we get info in the night phase too. There is a somewhat decent chance that in 3 night phases before we are at 0 mislynches and no idea who to lynch, Cop/Watcher/Tracker/somebody unearths another mafia.

[Kaoz]

We go for 88% hit chances in Fire Emblem all the time, don't we? I think we should let Manix go for now. Even in the worst case scenario, where we mislynch and he flips mafia, and we have no mislynches left, we're not going to mislynch for the next two cycles, because we know Marth and Manix are mafia. Yes, maybe we won't get all that much discussion going in those two cycles, but we get info in the night phase too. There is a somewhat decent chance that in 3 night phases before we are at 0 mislynches and no idea who to lynch, Cop/Watcher/Tracker/somebody unearths another mafia.

1. This isn't FE.
2. I'm pretty sure that there are people who would think two or three times about risking that when their Lord is in death range and they had to play the whole chapter over again if he misses.

That being said, it's rather difficult for me to adress other things when you always go back to the same topic.

[Leder]

I'm beginning to read Kaoz as mafia right now.

Also, let's not lynch Manix. Seriously. /:

[Leder]

Haven't we gotten over this whole Manix argument already? It seems like overkill at this point to keep on pressing something we've already fully discussed and it's starting to irritate me. Fucking lynch Manix or don't lynch Manix, but we've gone over the risks, the probabilities, and the improbabilities. If you want to risk being out of a revive of a strong player, then by all means fuck it and do that.

As for Rapier, I'm still not sure, but he's not exactly someone I would avoid lynching if he had to get down to it. Snike or Rapier, I don't care. Manix has a target on his head already.

[Sawslothducksaucestrawman]

I think for now I'd have to stick Rapier.

Well, there are several possibilities.

1. He wants to appear town by giving something to someone who is likely to report it in the thread. Bizz would be one of the better targets for this from what I've seen. Also we don't know how strong the gift is (I might be misremembering, but didn't Bizz say it was useless because of what she did?), so if it doesn't really give the town an advantage, it's not a big deal.

2. He doesn't know what the gifts do and was afraid they had a negative effect.

I believe he already said he used his Djinn on her. I guess that doesn't necessarily mean that it is true(as in maybe it was his role but he didn't want to give any hints to that), but I don't really see a reason not to believe it.

Though, I guess my 2nd choice to Rapier would be Kaoz. I know you're always a logical player, but you're logic so far in this game seem either really forced to look definitive, what with the somehow calculated out percentages of this theory and that theory, or just not really all that logical, like more false logic. And I think BBM made a really good point in that post about taking us to 7-4 if Manix is town. Also, you're basing almost your entire argument around assumptions of what might happen if we lynch him, and much less around things that make him suspicious. I mean you said this:

Manix - The reviver claim was just bad for multiple reasons. Adding to that, I don't recall any good posts aside from one sometime during the beginning of this cycle, overall doesn't do a whole lot that makes me want to keep her around.
##Unvote
##Vote: Manix

Reasons stated above. The risks of keeping her around outweigh the benefits in my opinion.

And a few things when you two were "arguing" ( I just couldn't think of a better word) that kind of gave that sort of opinion, but mostly your going off numbers after lynch. And in all reality, you could use the same numbers after lynch argument for pretty much anyone. Sure, theres a little different int here with the reviver claim since obviously he can bring someone back and all and that affects numbers, but it still doesn't seem like a real reason why Manx should be lynched since its not really specific to him to bring up numbers like that.

[Sawslothducksaucestrawman]

Well that sent before it was supposed to. I do agree that some of his posts have not been all that great and you could even see his "gonna revive Prims" posts as just trying to say something that will get him townie brownie points. But you don't really address things like that so I'm having a hard time believing you actually believe your own argument.

[BamBamMan]

I keep returning to the same topic because I think that lynching Manix, if he flips town, is no better than mislynching and having Manix revive Marth. In the one, we are left with 1 mislynch left next cycle, in the other we are left with 0 mislynches left in three cycles. The first option, which you think is better than the second one, could have us in MYLO a cycle earlier than the second. I really think that lynching Manix is not a good idea for this cycle.

Anyways, are we lynching Rapier then? Rapier, if you're reading this, you'd better claim or something.

I might be gone for the rest of the night. I might not be able to change my vote. It's sticking on Snike for the moment, but if there's a tie between Rapier and someone who is not Snike, SWITCH MY VOTE TO RAPIER.

[Kaoz]

And I think BBM made a really good point in that post about taking us to 7-4 if Manix is town.

Didn't deny that.

Also, you're basing almost your entire argument around assumptions of what might happen if we lynch him, and much less around things that make him suspicious. I mean you said this:

I mentioned in that same post that I was unhappy with his inactivity and that the timing of the claim looked bad to me.

And a few things when you two were "arguing" ( I just couldn't think of a better word) that kind of gave that sort of opinion, but mostly your going off numbers after lynch. And in all reality, you could use the same numbers after lynch argument for pretty much anyone. Sure, theres a little different int here with the reviver claim since obviously he can bring someone back and all and that affects numbers, but it still doesn't seem like a real reason why Manx should be lynched since its not really specific to him to bring up numbers like that.

You just said yourself that he's a special case because of his role...


Anyway though, I've said multiple times now that I'm willing to drop the issue, seeing as it's not going anywhere, and since that apparently isn't happening as long as I have this vote...

##Unvote

[Kaoz]

Oh and

##Vote: Rapier

commented on in the longer post from before.

[eclipse]

I keep returning to the same topic because I think that lynching Manix, if he flips town, is no better than mislynching and having Manix revive Marth. In the one, we are left with 1 mislynch left next cycle, in the other we are left with 0 mislynches left in three cycles. The first option, which you think is better than the second one, could have us in MYLO a cycle earlier than the second. I really think that lynching Manix is not a good idea for this cycle.

Anyways, are we lynching Rapier then? Rapier, if you're reading this, you'd better claim or something.

I might be gone for the rest of the night. I might not be able to change my vote. It's sticking on Snike for the moment, but if there's a tie between Rapier and someone who is not Snike, SWITCH MY VOTE TO RAPIER.

I'm sorry, but you'll have to do that for yourself.

[Snike]

It would be kinda dickish to lynch Snike so early, but my vote on Paperblade wasn't based on inactivity. You can still seem like an inactive townie. Paperblade's last minute Marth bandwagoning seemed scummy to me.

Snike/Paperblade: Paperblade's last minute post on C1, as I've said several times, just irks me. There was no reason to post that at that point in the cycle. Marth's lynch was basically an inevitability at that point. And he didn't change his vote to Marth, or say why he was keeping his vote on Shinori. He was just distancing himself from Marth, IMO. My vote is staying here, at least for the moment.

Ok, with the second comment in mind, that sort of bothers me. You're essentially lynching me over the fact that my predecessor didn't throw in a last minute vote on someone, which would've been more suspect. And because he did not explain why he decided to keep a vote on someone he thought was mafia.


Yeah, I'm not sure what to think there.
:/

[Lævateinn]

Votals

• Joshaymin/Aurora (0) - Paperblade
• Clipsey!/eclipse (1) - Joshaymin, Domu
• Kay/Centurion (0) - Ether
• BigBangMeteor
• Prims (died C1)
• Domu/Rapier (5) - Clipsey!, Strawman, Snike, Joshaymin, BigBangMeteor, Kaoz
• Shinori
• Strawman/StrawSloththeSawSlothStraw
• Snike (subbing in for Paperblade) (1) - Clipsey!, Kay, BigBangMeteor, Manix, Clipsey!, Bizz, Clipsey!
• Iris~ (0) - Clipsey!
• Kaoz (subbing in for Ether) (2) - Joshaymin, Joshaymin, Manix, Manix, Clipsey!
• Manix (0) - Bizz, Domu, Shinori, Clipsey!, Joshaymin, Kaoz
• Blues/Marth (lynched C1)
• Spike/Stolypin Necktie (missing)
• Bizz/Levantamos
• Haze (0) - Kaoz

[eclipse]

I see some support for a Rapier lynch, but I don't see enough reason to move my vote elsewhere. Therefore, it's staying put.

[BamBamMan]

Okay, yeah ##Vote Rapier, since I see Proto did that anyways.

@Snike- Yes, putting the vote in as well would have made it too obvious. I think he didn't put the vote in because he was trying to do it subtly, to put it into people's minds that he was against Marth, but without just bandwagoning. But whatever, my vote's on Rapier anyways.

[Kaoz]

I see some support for a Rapier lynch, but I don't see enough reason to move my vote elsewhere. Therefore, it's staying put.

How so? Pretty much any reason seems better than no reason to me.

Your vote for me is based on you thinking I assumed a different amount of mafia members for my scenarios than I actually did. In fact, you asked for the number I used. On the other hand...

Rapier - I'm not liking his insistence that he has to be clear because Marth voted for him, BUT it's not quite enough to warrant a vote from me. Yet.

To me it seems like you have an issue here, whereas the one that inspired your current vote was cleared up hours ago.

[eclipse]

The other person I don't like is Kay, but I don't think everyone's gonna pop out and vote for her based on what I have to say, and it looks like Kaoz isn't getting lynched. ;/

##Unvote
##Vote: Rapier

I'm not happy with this, but I'm less happy with my vote going nowhere.

[Shinori]

I've been suspicious of rapier but I also think there is a high chance of him being town, however i can't get too much of a read on most others that i would think are definte scum. At the moment I'm not entirely liking Kaoz and how he wants to lynch Manix so hard. After that I think I have my eyes on Kay and Strawman. I still think there might be a third party somewhere in this game. Don't know though.

Anywho. We already have alot of votes on rapier, and i won't to give him a chance to say something before phase end or majority lynch. Maybe you should claim sometime soon, since you're now at 7 votes.

[BamBamMan]

He's already at majority lynch. 7/12.