1108 replies to this topic

[Leder]

I mentioned why I was suspicious of Paperblade in pieces, and him replacing like that just makes me even more wary. Sorry.

[Leder]

Err, subbing out like that.

I need sleep.

[Kaoz]

First things first...

##Vote: Haze

Now then... this is all stuff from C2, if someone wants me to adress something prior to that, bring it to my attention.

Well, I guess if Shinori didn't give Bizz a gift, someone would have counterclaimed, so that clears Shinori for now... Unless both of them are mafia, but I think Bizz is town. Also, I lol'd at the second-last line of Paperblade's post. Is there anyone who doesn't make you uneasy? (This may sound slightly mocking, but it's a serious question)

Mafia Inventors exist.

"Gut feeling" is, according to my memory, an even better way of getting yourself lynched because you're still not fully explaining yourself!

##Vote: Bizz

1) First off what do you think of marth's votes before cycle one end? Do you think there is any relevance behind them? Do you think the people he started voting for are most likely town?

To answer the last question first, no. As has been mentioned multiple times before, those kind of votes can easily be used to make a mafia look better after the flip. Especially the vote for Bizz seemed out of place since it was clear that that wouldn't go anywhere.

2) To go along with question 1 Who do you think is the most town at the moment? Also why do you think they are the most town?

3) Now the opposite of that, Who do you think is most likely to be scum? And why do you think that? Any specific reasoning?

Going to combine these two and just give opinions on everyone:

JB - Posts are reasonable for the most part, leaning very slightly towards town.
eclipse - Not leaning either way here at the moment. If you could provide your opinions on everyone I would appreciate it.
Kay - Had a good C0/C1 from what I recall, but got significantly weaker C2. Seemed too fixated on BBM at the beginning and her votes had little reasoning behind them from what I recall, overall appears non commital at the moment.
BigBangMeteor - Was rather active but the posts could have had more content for my taste. I would like to hear your opinions on everyone as well, and don't be afraid of being wrong or something (at least that's kind of the feeling I got so far), everyone makes mistakes at times (even Life).
Domu/Rapier - Was rather self centered so far during this cycle, the last post is a little better. Still not feeling too great about him.
Shinori - Neutral I guess. Was the only one who tried to kick discussion off during C2 from what I recall, so that's a positive at least.
Strawman - Pretty much the same as JB.
Snike - I recall Paper making some decent posts when he actually did post. Inactivity is an issue, but that's always the case, I expect Snike to rectify that. What I find somewhat noteworthy is that someone (or maybe multiple people, not sure) saw him as more town because of his inactivity, but then voted him for exactly that reason.
Iris - Seems incredibly forgetable to me and was basically non existant. One of the people I expect thoughts from the next time they post.
Manix - The reviver claim was just bad for multiple reasons. Adding to that, I don't recall any good posts aside from one sometime during the beginning of this cycle, overall doesn't do a whole lot that makes me want to keep her around.
Spike - I remember him posting quite a bit during C1, but nothing that really stuck out to me. Might reread C1 later I guess.
Bizz - Could go either way depending on how certain things are interpreted. For now, please prove your role to me this cycle, I'm pretty sure you can assuming I'm right about it.

4) Do you think the kidnapper is more town or scum?

Someone remind me to answer this in a cycle or two when we have more than one data point to work with.

5) What do you think the chances of a third party being in play are? Say a survivor or cult?

Not leaning either way at the moment. However, if someone has a role indicating a Cult, speak up.

But Proto made a role for every single Djinn. Probably several of them are revivers of some sort. The randomized choice thing was fairly complicated, it would make sense if he was trying to differentiate several different Reviver Djinn. Keep in mind that a lot of things about the setup will be based on luck because of the Djinn system.

I would expect Proto to make sure the game is reasonably well balanced, even with the somewhat random nature. Of course we can't know for sure, but there would have always been the possibility of giving a lower number range to ensure that no broken combinations exist.

But Proto made a role for every single Djinn. Probably several of them are Also, it doesn't matter if Manix is scum right now. If he's mafia, and there is no mafia reviver, we can lynch him when Prims isn't revived. If he is a mafia reviver, why not make him help the town first? I'd say reviving Prims is worth keeping him around for, in that case. There isn't anything to be gained from lynching Manix this cycle.

I disagree. Who says that Manix was telling the truth about the restrictions? Say she revives Marth, we have to kill both of them again which puts us at the end of C4 at the very least (chances that we mislynch this cycle in that case aren't exactly low), so even though we would have confirmed mafia, we would still give them lots of time to do whatever they want, possibly protecting more devastating roles with this.

BIZZAnyway, throwing this out before I get back to schoolwork.##Vote: EtherYou haven't been in here after over 30 hours, and I wub Iris too much to vote for her now.

JB...

When I said that I couldn't see there being a harmless third-party, I wasn't saying this out of hard proof I had. I said it because the only third-party character I could see existing would be the Wise One, and he doesn't strike me as harmless, considering he creates the Doom Dragon and all.

Random piece of advise, don't assume too much about the game based on flavour.

That's a hell of a lot of trouble to go to just to save one guy, when the net result is yet another mafia member dead.

As said above, it's about time more than anything. We don't know how many mafia there are, so those additional cycles might very well be all they need.

Unless, maybe the post restriction was a result of something like say an inventor type role that gives random effect to people? That could always be a possibility, since cursed to only be able to post 6 times doesn't quite seem like something that would be the main definitely ability of a role.

It's certainly possible that the whatever-it-is is part of an Inventor type role. I dislike repeating myself, but possibility of Mafia Inventors etc.

I remember, when I was hosting CM4, how upset Paperblade was because "it's bad luck" whenever he's on the side of the mafia. This is more meta, but it's entirely plausible that outside distractions plus the D1 lynch of a teammate with an invaluable role made him give up. He didn't state his reason for replacement, so I really am actually willing to believe this, but yeah, it's pretty dickish. I don't know what other leads I have, though.(by the way i made a terrible mistake and pulled an all-nighter so brb sleeping forever)

This would maybe be worth considering (except that it's still meta, i.e. unreliable), if Paperblade wasn't already fairly inactive at the beginning of the game when there was probably no reason to give up.


Lastly,

##Unvote
##Vote: Manix

Reasons stated above. The risks of keeping her around outweigh the benefits in my opinion.

[eclipse]

Hooray, phase extension~! My head's not in the best of shape, but I think I can put together something coherent (this is the longest I've been affected by my allergy, ever. . .damn thing usually goes away in 24 hours).

My thoughts is that my head fucking hurts, and that there is precious little discussion going on. I'm sorry for not being as aggressive, Rapier, but I'd like to see you play properly when your sense of balance is thrown out the window.

I only wish people would tell me why I look like I'm trying to clear myself over this, instead of just saying "He's trying too hard let's lynch him" without counter-arguing. Tell me why Marth would vote me and Shinori if we were his scumbuddies, for example.

It's called bussing, and a move that's meant to disassociate yourself from your scumbuddies. You'd know what this is, as you were a victim of it at least once.

As for everyone else. . .

JB - DO YOUR HOMEWORK! (seems busy with RL)
me - Corn Pops are evil.
Kay - Comes in, picks on someone, leaves. I'm not sure if I like her idea of "being active" (this isn't an attack on you, BTW). This is about the time where her life kicks in, so meh.
BBM - Rather invested in flavor, but at least isn't giving away info for no reason. I guess that's an improvement?
Rapier - I'm not liking his insistence that he has to be clear because Marth voted for him, BUT it's not quite enough to warrant a vote from me. Yet.
Shinori - Probably the most helpful person during this phase. . .everyone, step it up~!
Strawman - IIRC, this is your busy time. I hope you find time between your homework to say more.
Snike - I'd like to give him a bit more time to say something, but that's because his time zone sucks. Didn't like the fact that Paper only opened his mouth when pressured.
Iris - If you're gonna be that busy, sub out at the end of this phase.
Kaoz - Doesn't seem to trust anything, which is par for the course.
Manix - I don't care for hiding behind one's role as a way of proving yourself (this might be my fault from Training Mafia, so sorry everyone), but having Prims back would liven things up. Also, get well soon.
Spike - Don't forget this game exists!
Bizz - Get well soon! Drink lots of water!

I hope you guys can say SOMETHING interesting while I'm asleep. Since it's Saturday, I'll be back well before the phase ends.

[Manix]

Firstly, it's "he", but I'll let that slide.

Also, which restrictions about my role? Okay, let's throw this down (also, I hate repeating myself):

- I can revive people, and can choose whether to keep them alive or not.
- It's a role ability
- I can only keep one person alive at any one time
- Another fact I'm omitting for safety purposes (see below the quote below as for why)

Think about it: I wouldn't have the capacity to revive multiple people, it'd just mean I'd have stupid amounts of power for town, making the game imba as hell. I doubt.

Also, I admitted that my claim was probably not the best idea in the world.

Might I remind you that claiming Reviver as Mafia is quite possibly one of the stupidest ideas ever. Hell, claiming Reviver as Town isn't the best either. Claiming Mafia Reviver would just set me up very easily for a lynch. Yeah, that's an incredibly smart idea as mafia /sarcasm

Actually, your entire post towards me rubs me completely the wrong way. You're fishing for more information about my role. No one else has asked anything about what else my role is capable of. Let me fish out some quotes for you:

I disagree. Who says that Manix was telling the truth about the restrictions? Say she revives Marth, we have to kill both of them again which puts us at the end of C4 at the very least (chances that we mislynch this cycle in that case aren't exactly low), so even though we would have confirmed mafia, we would still give them lots of time to do whatever they want, possibly protecting more devastating roles with this.

This irks me sooooooooooo much. This is fishing for information for beyond what town would actually care about. And if scum knew exactly what my omission was, they'd have a perfect reason to kill me off immediately. Town wouldn't mind if they didn't know.

##Vote: Kaoz

You've given me a very good reason to vote you right now. That makes it easier to decide.

Tip to the maybe non-existent Doctor: You might want to target me this cycle

[Kaoz]

Firstly, it's "he", but I'll let that slide.

My apologies.

Also, which restrictions about my role? Okay, let's throw this down (also, I hate repeating myself):

- I can revive people, and can choose whether to keep them alive or not.
- It's a role ability
- I can only keep one person alive at any one time
- Another fact I'm omitting for safety purposes (see below the quote below as for why)

Yes, these restrictions, you already said all of that, no reason to repeat yourself. Who confirms me that you really have those?

Think about it: I wouldn't have the capacity to revive multiple people, it'd just mean I'd have stupid amounts of power for town, making the game imba as hell. I doubt.

Except that I never claimed that you had those abilities. Let's look at a scenario in the case you are mafia:

-You revive Marth
-We have to lynch Marth next cycle, if we don't he can use his role to prevent the lynch
-We have to lynch you afterwards
-We are at the beginning of C5 with two killed mafia, X remaining ones and probably 2 Town less, and if this cycle is any indication, we got nothing done in the meantime

If you are town we get Prims back which is nice and all, but from what I can tell, it'd be a smaller benefit to have him back than it would be detrimental to the Town if Marth got revived and we had to lynch him again. Furthermore, as JB mentioned, you also more or less bind the Doctor (if one exists), which leaves everyone else open for shots, and in the worst case scenario, the Mafia has a Watcher and gets to know who the Doctor is because of that.

Then we have the possibilities of Mafia Roleblockers, or even worse, Redirects.

Also, I admitted that my claim was probably not the best idea in the world.

That doesn't change anything. I don't see why I should give you a free pass for doing something like this.

Might I remind you that claiming Reviver as Mafia is quite possibly one of the stupidest ideas ever. Hell, claiming Reviver as Town isn't the best either. Claiming Mafia Reviver would just set me up very easily for a lynch. Yeah, that's an incredibly smart idea as mafia /sarcasm

Yeah... because clearly as Mafia, I would claim Mafia [Role], not just the role itself.

Claiming as Reviver is suboptimal, regardless of your allignment. The thing that bothers me is that apparently a lot of people here are assuming that Reviver = Town when that is not the case at all and even a single revive could easily change the flow of the game.

Actually, your entire post towards me rubs me completely the wrong way. You're fishing for more information about my role. No one else has asked anything about what else my role is capable of. Let me fish out some quotes for you:

This irks me sooooooooooo much. This is fishing for information for beyond what town would actually care about. And if scum knew exactly what my omission was, they'd have a perfect reason to kill me off immediately. Town wouldn't mind if they didn't know.

I'm not fishing for info. I haven't asked you what your role was capable of, I went by what you already said.

##Vote: Kaoz

You've given me a very good reason to vote you right now. That makes it easier to decide.

Tip to the maybe non-existent Doctor: You might want to target me this cycle

You've given me a very good reason to keep my vote where it is for the time being.

[eclipse]

Damn walls of text.

Claiming as Reviver is suboptimal, regardless of your allignment. The thing that bothers me is that apparently a lot of people here are assuming that Reviver = Town when that is not the case at all and even a single revive could easily change the flow of the game.

I don't know which side Manix is on ATM. Why are you assuming mafia. . .or do you know something I don't?

[Kaoz]

I don't know which side Manix is on ATM. Why are you assuming mafia. . .or do you know something I don't?

I apparently didn't make this clear. I'm not assuming he's Mafia, what I'm saying is that if he is, it'd be really bad for us, say a -10, and that if he is Town, it'd only be like a +5, and since it could be either, it'd be more logical to lynch him than not to.

[Manix]

One moment:

I'm not fishing for info. I haven't asked you what your role was capable of, I went by what you already said.

so what about this:

I disagree. Who says that Manix was telling the truth about the restrictions? Say she revives Marth, we have to kill both of them again which puts us at the end of C4 at the very least (chances that we mislynch this cycle in that case aren't exactly low), so even though we would have confirmed mafia, we would still give them lots of time to do whatever they want, possibly protecting more devastating roles with this.

Which kind of implies that you may want to know whether what I'm saying is true, and hence know what my role exactly does.

But anyway, so be it. We will stand opposite each other on this issue.

Although, a question: What happens if we make it to next phase and I flip town by reviving Prims? Would you still try to be rid of me?

[eclipse]

While I'm not happy with Kay, Rapier, or Snike, at least they make an effort to talk.

##Vote: Iris

This is a reminder to sub out sooner than later, especially if life's about to get hectic. Being busy all the time isn't helping the town in the least. I know that I won't be sick all the time. . .

[Kaoz]

Which kind of implies that you may want to know whether what I'm saying is true, and hence know what my role exactly does.

That's what you get for trying to read something in my posts that's not in there. I said what I said, nothing more, it's hardly my fault if you misinterpret my statements.

Although, a question: What happens if we make it to next phase and I flip town by reviving Prims? Would you still try to be rid of me?

Others likely would require my attention more than you then. If you actually revive Prims, the chance that you're Mafia decreases by quite a bit, but I wouldn't want to put it at 0%, even then.

[Lævateinn]

Votals

• Joshaymin/Aurora (0) - Paperblade
• Clipsey!/eclipse (1) - Joshaymin, Domu
• Kay/Centurion (0) - Ether
• BigBangMeteor
• Prims (died C1)
• Domu/Rapier (2) - Clipsey!, Strawman, Snike
• Shinori
• Strawman/StrawSloththeSawSlothStraw
• Snike (subbing in for Paperblade) (2) - Clipsey!, Kay, BigBangMeteor, Manix, Clipsey!, Bizz, Clipsey!
• Iris~ (1) - Clipsey!
• Kaoz (subbing in for Ether) (1) - Joshaymin, Joshaymin, Manix, Manix
• Manix (1) - Bizz, Domu, Shinori, Clipsey!, Joshaymin, Kaoz
• Blues/Marth (lynched C1)
• Spike/Stolypin Necktie (missing)
• Bizz/Levantamos
• Haze (0) - Kaoz

[Sawslothducksaucestrawman]

Kaoz, I think lynching Manix doesn't seem very logical. If we lynch him and he is telling the truth we lose out on townie manix AND townie prims. That is not good. Also, I wish I could say more but I'm about to be late. Volunteering with a church at 8 in the morning :/ lol.

[Kaoz]

Kaoz, I think lynching Manix doesn't seem very logical. If we lynch him and he is telling the truth we lose out on townie manix AND townie prims. That is not good. Also, I wish I could say more but I'm about to be late. Volunteering with a church at 8 in the morning :/ lol.

That is true. On the other hand, if we don't lynch him and he isn't telling the truth, it throws us back quite a bit which is also not good. It's a matter of risk/reward and I currently feel that the risk is greater.

Adding to that, it's only C2 and you guys produced barely any leads other than lynching inactives.

If someone makes a good argument for lynching someone else, I will gladly reconsider the risk/reward ratio, but that's how it seems to me at the moment.

[Kaoz]

Alright so I figured since it seems that I didn't express myself very clearly, I'd draw up my (possibly not perfect) thought process regarding this issue. Note that I do not know anything about the numbers, and of course the results vary depending on that assumption, but we gotta start somewhere.

Assuming 5 Mafia (= 2 Mislynches, disregarding vote modifiers)
Current: 10-4

Case Mafia
After C2: 8-5 (revive, probability for a mislynch increases)
After C3: 7-4
After C3: 6-3

If the Kidnapper is Mafia -> No mislynches left

Case Town
After C2: 10-3 or 9-4 (assuming successful revival)

The situation is a lot better but given that the game is NOC, nowhere near a certain win. Furthermore there is the aforementioned risk of a Mafia Roleblocker or something similiar.

Case Town
After C2: 9-3 or 8-4 (assuming failed revival)

In other words, our situation only improves if Manix is Town and the revival is successful, otherwise it gets worse or stays around the same (the latter only if we lynch Mafia).

 

There's one more thing I'd like to know. Manix, why did you claim? We covered that it probably wasn't a good decision, but surely you must have had some sort of reason regardless. I apologize if you answered this before, I probably missed it in that case.

[Manix]

There's one more thing I'd like to know. Manix, why did you claim? We covered that it probably wasn't a good decision, but surely you must have had some sort of reason regardless. I apologize if you answered this before, I probably missed it in that case.

I don't think I ever did explain, so you wouldn't have missed it. Mostly, I did it because I wanted to get some communication going between the town, and give the town some goals by who doesn't like what I claimed, etc. Also, to let the town know what my plan was about Prims, before I revived him. Because getting past a fakeclaim made the following day is also important. (Fakeclaims are hard to break in just one phase, and I can't afford that, tbh.)

Also because my head wasn't really in the right place that day. But hey, what's done is done...

[Skyward]

JB - DO YOUR HOMEWORK! (seems busy with RL)

I thought I was doing enough WRT posting for this phase =/

Regarding Kaoz/Manix, IMO it's still much better to leave Manix alone for this phase. Yes, there is the risk that he's mafia, but honestly, if he were mafia he'd probably have run his plan by his teammates already. And I honestly don't think such a plan would have made it through.

[Kaoz]

Well, who do you want to lynch then? You're not voting for anyone at the moment I believe.

[Skyward]

The problem here for me is that everyone either looks townish (Bizz, Manix), is/was inactive as hell (Iris, the 2 subs) or I have practically zero reads on/feel indifferent towards (Strawman, Eclipse). There's no one who sticks out even slightly as scummy... Except maybe this.

##Vote Rapier

Still think you were defending yourself way too vigorously WRT Marth's vote on you. Gut feeling (I KNOW I SAID THIS WAS TERRIBLE), bleeeeeeegh

[BBM]

Okay, my thoughts.

JB: I'm still a bit mistrustful about how he and Kay pushed so hard on that one very slightly incorrect sentence I made, but I'm neutral other than that.

Eclipse: Uh... even before he got sick, he didn't actually have many content-related posts. He posted frequently, but a lot of them were just about voting for inactives. That's a bit suspicious.

Kay: See JB.

Rapier: I... really don't know. His posts are kind of weird and overly aggressive. Getting a weird vibe from him.

Shinori: I pushed kinda hard on him C1, but I think he's town. I know Mafia Inventors exist, but if he was scum, wouldn't he have given the gift to someone in the mafia? I don't think Bizz is mafia.

Strawman: I don't have any reads on him. >_>

Snike/Paperblade: Paperblade's last minute post on C1, as I've said several times, just irks me. There was no reason to post that at that point in the cycle. Marth's lynch was basically an inevitability at that point. And he didn't change his vote to Marth, or say why he was keeping his vote on Shinori. He was just distancing himself from Marth, IMO. My vote is staying here, at least for the moment.

Iris: Inactive. However, she has, I think, made a post once or twice about posting impressions soon, but never has. If this is because of being busy, please ask for a sub.

Kaoz/Ether: Ether was inactive and Kaoz has just come in, so no read yet.

Manix: I also find him suspicious. I still think it's a possibility he claimed to divert attention away from him, because people were talking about lynching him C2 in C1. However, I think Paperblade/Snike are more likely to be scum. Yes, if he flips Mafia, we're behind a cycle, but it's not that great a loss if we lynch correctly today. Kaoz, your calculations didn't show the possibility of a correct lynch and Mafia Manix, as far as I can see. However, keep in mind guys, Prims said that if he gets revived, he'll probably need a sub. So we won't necessarily be getting Prims' activity if Manix is town.

Bizz: Town. I may be reading too much into the flavour again (damnit, I should have picked a mafia where I didn't know the game at all), but it makes sense for Agatio to have a partner.