I wouldn't be entirely averse with a lynch against Rapier. My voting priority at the moment is Snike >> Rapier > Kaoz > Manix.
Kaoz, you're in there because I don't quite like how hard you're pushing this lynch on Manix. You're saying that if we lynch correctly and Manix is mafia, we only get one mislynch. If we lynch Manix and he's town, we go from 9-4 to 7-4 counting in the mafia NK. That also gives us only 1 mislynch. And, we're put in that situation next cycle instead of two cycles after that. I think you're greatly underestimating what might happen if we lynch Manix and he flips town.
I think I acknowledged that at some point... my main concern was the scenario where he is mafia and we mislynch. Let's see... if we're assuming that the probability for him being Mafia is 50%, the probability for that scenario is around 12.5%, we would be out of mislynches in that case. Then there are a bunch of scenarios where we go from two mislynches to one mislynch, and finally the best case scenario where we stay at two mislynches.
Also I don't necessarily mind disucssing alternatives. As I said in my second (I think) post, I'm not too fond of Rapier, so if people feel that a 12.5% chance is low enough to be disregarded, I'd likely go that way.