BBM Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 But then it goes 7-3 and 6-2 as we lynch 2 mafia in a row, Marth and Manix, and they get off 2 NKs. A 6-2 split is pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclipse Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The more I think about it, the more ridiculous a mafia reviver who can keep someone alive indefinitely sounds, especially given Marth's role PM. However, I'm not sure what everyone else does, so I can't say if that would be balanced or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 @eclipse I also find two town revivers quite ridiculous balance wise, so that kinda goes both ways. But then it goes 7-3 and 6-2 as we lynch 2 mafia in a row, Marth and Manix, and they get off 2 NKs. A 6-2 split is pretty good. The problem here is that we still only have one mislynch in that case. In NOC games, it's usually rather difficult to catch mafia quickly, and as I pointed out before, when looking at the beginning of this cycle, I'm not exactly confident that we'd use that time to actually get closer to the rest of the mafia. Furthermore, we don't know what the remaining mafia roles might be, hence they could potentially be protecting stronger roles like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Percivalé Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 You guys do realize that the other reviver was a randomized Djinn and had a chance of reviving mafia, too? If I remember it correctly. kindly stop saying that people don't read your posts I will once I stop getting asked questions that I've already answered and assumptions that I've already attempted to explain. And it's okay if you don't agree with my playstyle, just... I get sensitive about it because I really do understand and I try my best. Just remember that, okay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 You guys do realize that the other reviver was a randomized Djinn and had a chance of reviving mafia, too? If I remember it correctly. That is true. However, if used properly it shouldn't be too much of an issue. What basically rubs me the wrong way is that most people seem to neglect the risks associated with this lynch. We can be put at a major disadvantage here if things go wrong (and the probability for that is not exactly small). And at the same time, I don't see anyone else offering any great alternatives. There were a grand total of five votes after I got subbed in, Rapier pressure voting eclipse, me voting Manix for reasons I've stated often enough by now, Manix voting me for I believe fishing, JB voting Rapier based on gut feeling and eclipse voting me based on an out of context statement (unless you think I made that scenario look less in favour of my argument on purpose). Throw in BBM keeping his vote on Snike I guess. That's far too little when we have no real lead on what we wanna do and given that we only have a little less than six hours left. Maybe something different then. The player with the most votes on him at the moment is Rapier. Would you agree with this lynch, yes or no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Votals: Domu/Rapier (3) - Strawman, Snike, Aurora Snike (subbing in for Paperblade) (2) - BigBangMeteor, Bizz Kaoz (subbing in for Ether) (2) - Manix, Eclipse Manix (1) - Kaoz Haven't voted: Iris, Rapier, Kay, Shinori Rapier gets lynched atm. However, this could swing any way with Rapier only in the lead by 1 and 4 people who haven't voted. If all 4 of them vote for the same person, someone who doesn't even have any votes yet could be lynched. Come on, guys. Unless some groundbreakingly contrary evidence comes up, or it's the only way to achieve a lynch, my vote will stick with Snike. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclipse Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Maybe I should change my vote to BBM so he learns how to make accurate votals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I wouldn't be entirely averse with a lynch against Rapier. My voting priority at the moment is Snike >> Rapier > Kaoz > Manix. Kaoz, you're in there because I don't quite like how hard you're pushing this lynch on Manix. You're saying that if we lynch correctly and Manix is mafia, we only get one mislynch. If we lynch Manix and he's town, we go from 9-4 to 7-4 counting in the mafia NK. That also gives us only 1 mislynch. And, we're put in that situation next cycle instead of two cycles after that. I think you're greatly underestimating what might happen if we lynch Manix and he flips town. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Maybe I should change my vote to BBM so he learns how to make accurate votals Huh, how did I screw up? By taking out all the cancelled votes? I'm pretty sure the current votes are right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclipse Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Rapier has a vote on me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I wouldn't be entirely averse with a lynch against Rapier. My voting priority at the moment is Snike >> Rapier > Kaoz > Manix. Kaoz, you're in there because I don't quite like how hard you're pushing this lynch on Manix. You're saying that if we lynch correctly and Manix is mafia, we only get one mislynch. If we lynch Manix and he's town, we go from 9-4 to 7-4 counting in the mafia NK. That also gives us only 1 mislynch. And, we're put in that situation next cycle instead of two cycles after that. I think you're greatly underestimating what might happen if we lynch Manix and he flips town. I think I acknowledged that at some point... my main concern was the scenario where he is mafia and we mislynch. Let's see... if we're assuming that the probability for him being Mafia is 50%, the probability for that scenario is around 12.5%, we would be out of mislynches in that case. Then there are a bunch of scenarios where we go from two mislynches to one mislynch, and finally the best case scenario where we stay at two mislynches. Also I don't necessarily mind disucssing alternatives. As I said in my second (I think) post, I'm not too fond of Rapier, so if people feel that a 12.5% chance is low enough to be disregarded, I'd likely go that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclipse Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I'm still not wholly in favor of a Rapier lynch, mostly because he's also stupidly paranoid (which can go either way). However, I'm seeing precious little discussion from everyone that isn't Kaoz. Speak, dammit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 We go for 88% hit chances in Fire Emblem all the time, don't we? I think we should let Manix go for now. Even in the worst case scenario, where we mislynch and he flips mafia, and we have no mislynches left, we're not going to mislynch for the next two cycles, because we know Marth and Manix are mafia. Yes, maybe we won't get all that much discussion going in those two cycles, but we get info in the night phase too. There is a somewhat decent chance that in 3 night phases before we are at 0 mislynches and no idea who to lynch, Cop/Watcher/Tracker/somebody unearths another mafia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 We go for 88% hit chances in Fire Emblem all the time, don't we? I think we should let Manix go for now. Even in the worst case scenario, where we mislynch and he flips mafia, and we have no mislynches left, we're not going to mislynch for the next two cycles, because we know Marth and Manix are mafia. Yes, maybe we won't get all that much discussion going in those two cycles, but we get info in the night phase too. There is a somewhat decent chance that in 3 night phases before we are at 0 mislynches and no idea who to lynch, Cop/Watcher/Tracker/somebody unearths another mafia. 1. This isn't FE. 2. I'm pretty sure that there are people who would think two or three times about risking that when their Lord is in death range and they had to play the whole chapter over again if he misses. That being said, it's rather difficult for me to adress other things when you always go back to the same topic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Percivalé Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 I'm beginning to read Kaoz as mafia right now. Also, let's not lynch Manix. Seriously. /: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Percivalé Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Haven't we gotten over this whole Manix argument already? It seems like overkill at this point to keep on pressing something we've already fully discussed and it's starting to irritate me. Fucking lynch Manix or don't lynch Manix, but we've gone over the risks, the probabilities, and the improbabilities. If you want to risk being out of a revive of a strong player, then by all means fuck it and do that. As for Rapier, I'm still not sure, but he's not exactly someone I would avoid lynching if he had to get down to it. Snike or Rapier, I don't care. Manix has a target on his head already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strawman Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I think for now I'd have to stick Rapier. Well, there are several possibilities. 1. He wants to appear town by giving something to someone who is likely to report it in the thread. Bizz would be one of the better targets for this from what I've seen. Also we don't know how strong the gift is (I might be misremembering, but didn't Bizz say it was useless because of what she did?), so if it doesn't really give the town an advantage, it's not a big deal. 2. He doesn't know what the gifts do and was afraid they had a negative effect. I believe he already said he used his Djinn on her. I guess that doesn't necessarily mean that it is true(as in maybe it was his role but he didn't want to give any hints to that), but I don't really see a reason not to believe it. Though, I guess my 2nd choice to Rapier would be Kaoz. I know you're always a logical player, but you're logic so far in this game seem either really forced to look definitive, what with the somehow calculated out percentages of this theory and that theory, or just not really all that logical, like more false logic. And I think BBM made a really good point in that post about taking us to 7-4 if Manix is town. Also, you're basing almost your entire argument around assumptions of what might happen if we lynch him, and much less around things that make him suspicious. I mean you said this: Manix - The reviver claim was just bad for multiple reasons. Adding to that, I don't recall any good posts aside from one sometime during the beginning of this cycle, overall doesn't do a whole lot that makes me want to keep her around. ##Unvote ##Vote: Manix Reasons stated above. The risks of keeping her around outweigh the benefits in my opinion. And a few things when you two were "arguing" ( I just couldn't think of a better word) that kind of gave that sort of opinion, but mostly your going off numbers after lynch. And in all reality, you could use the same numbers after lynch argument for pretty much anyone. Sure, theres a little different int here with the reviver claim since obviously he can bring someone back and all and that affects numbers, but it still doesn't seem like a real reason why Manx should be lynched since its not really specific to him to bring up numbers like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strawman Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Well that sent before it was supposed to. I do agree that some of his posts have not been all that great and you could even see his "gonna revive Prims" posts as just trying to say something that will get him townie brownie points. But you don't really address things like that so I'm having a hard time believing you actually believe your own argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I keep returning to the same topic because I think that lynching Manix, if he flips town, is no better than mislynching and having Manix revive Marth. In the one, we are left with 1 mislynch left next cycle, in the other we are left with 0 mislynches left in three cycles. The first option, which you think is better than the second one, could have us in MYLO a cycle earlier than the second. I really think that lynching Manix is not a good idea for this cycle. Anyways, are we lynching Rapier then? Rapier, if you're reading this, you'd better claim or something. I might be gone for the rest of the night. I might not be able to change my vote. It's sticking on Snike for the moment, but if there's a tie between Rapier and someone who is not Snike, SWITCH MY VOTE TO RAPIER. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 And I think BBM made a really good point in that post about taking us to 7-4 if Manix is town. Didn't deny that. Also, you're basing almost your entire argument around assumptions of what might happen if we lynch him, and much less around things that make him suspicious. I mean you said this: I mentioned in that same post that I was unhappy with his inactivity and that the timing of the claim looked bad to me. And a few things when you two were "arguing" ( I just couldn't think of a better word) that kind of gave that sort of opinion, but mostly your going off numbers after lynch. And in all reality, you could use the same numbers after lynch argument for pretty much anyone. Sure, theres a little different int here with the reviver claim since obviously he can bring someone back and all and that affects numbers, but it still doesn't seem like a real reason why Manx should be lynched since its not really specific to him to bring up numbers like that. You just said yourself that he's a special case because of his role... Anyway though, I've said multiple times now that I'm willing to drop the issue, seeing as it's not going anywhere, and since that apparently isn't happening as long as I have this vote... ##Unvote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Oh and ##Vote: Rapier commented on in the longer post from before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclipse Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I keep returning to the same topic because I think that lynching Manix, if he flips town, is no better than mislynching and having Manix revive Marth. In the one, we are left with 1 mislynch left next cycle, in the other we are left with 0 mislynches left in three cycles. The first option, which you think is better than the second one, could have us in MYLO a cycle earlier than the second. I really think that lynching Manix is not a good idea for this cycle. Anyways, are we lynching Rapier then? Rapier, if you're reading this, you'd better claim or something. I might be gone for the rest of the night. I might not be able to change my vote. It's sticking on Snike for the moment, but if there's a tie between Rapier and someone who is not Snike, SWITCH MY VOTE TO RAPIER. I'm sorry, but you'll have to do that for yourself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snike Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 It would be kinda dickish to lynch Snike so early, but my vote on Paperblade wasn't based on inactivity. You can still seem like an inactive townie. Paperblade's last minute Marth bandwagoning seemed scummy to me. Snike/Paperblade: Paperblade's last minute post on C1, as I've said several times, just irks me. There was no reason to post that at that point in the cycle. Marth's lynch was basically an inevitability at that point. And he didn't change his vote to Marth, or say why he was keeping his vote on Shinori. He was just distancing himself from Marth, IMO. My vote is staying here, at least for the moment. Ok, with the second comment in mind, that sort of bothers me. You're essentially lynching me over the fact that my predecessor didn't throw in a last minute vote on someone, which would've been more suspect. And because he did not explain why he decided to keep a vote on someone he thought was mafia. Yeah, I'm not sure what to think there. :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kriemhild Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 Votals Joshaymin/Aurora (0) - Paperblade Clipsey!/eclipse (1) - Joshaymin, Domu Kay/Centurion (0) - Ether BigBangMeteor Prims (died C1) Domu/Rapier (5) - Clipsey!, Strawman, Snike, Joshaymin, BigBangMeteor, Kaoz Shinori Strawman/StrawSloththeSawSlothStraw Snike (subbing in for Paperblade) (1) - Clipsey!, Kay, BigBangMeteor, Manix, Clipsey!, Bizz, Clipsey! Iris~ (0) - Clipsey! Kaoz (subbing in for Ether) (2) - Joshaymin, Joshaymin, Manix, Manix, Clipsey! Manix (0) - Bizz, Domu, Shinori, Clipsey!, Joshaymin, Kaoz Blues/Marth (lynched C1) Spike/Stolypin Necktie (missing) Bizz/Levantamos Haze (0) - Kaoz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclipse Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I see some support for a Rapier lynch, but I don't see enough reason to move my vote elsewhere. Therefore, it's staying put. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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