I was just going to say that and you beat me to it. It would be hard work vs pay to win if you could buy specific characters, stronger skills etc. But the only thing you are buying is another chance to gamble. Lucky f2p can be as powerful as unlucky dolphin and it has nothing to do with hard work. Maybe being a whale can really make a difference, but I understood that this topic is about if to pay at all.
And there is another problem. If you are a f2p from the beginning you would be able to get up to 4796 orbs. If someone starts now, that is a gap that is hard to fill.
I started playing in April and it was very frustrating to me. I paid some money to speed up my progress and it actually made me happy. Even if I didn't get all the characters I wanted, the fodder was also very precious for me. Now I'm only paying for monthly deals, because that feathers/coins are very valuable to me - because I missed on free distribution of them earlier. But it is because I am comfortable with spending that money. And my teams are still way weaker than teams of someone who is f2p, but started earlier.