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Everything posted by Othin

  1. Ward Fliers is a far more likely skill to drop right now than Goad Dragons. All dragon buff skills have been initially introduced at 5*, while Ward Fliers dropping would fit the precedent of adding 4* access to buff skills formerly 5* exclusive like Goad Armor and now Fortify Dragons. Also, Kana is a far rarer unit type. My impression is that unit drops have tended to be a lot more signified by skills and unit type than stat distribution. I don't think that makes sense in context.
  2. My understanding is that "colorless hell" is about what happens when you don't get a 5*, not when you do. Colorless has a lot of lower-rarity units who aren't very useful for inheritance, meaning low odds of getting both focus and non-focus 5*s and meaning non-5*s can be especially disappointing. To my understanding, the rarity change slightly improved the focus 5* rates but further decreased the non-focus 5* rates. At present, for a fully balanced banner (4 units, 1 of each color), the odds by color should be: Red: 2.51% focus 5*, 4.20% non-focus 5* (total 6.71%) Blue: 2.85% focus 5*, 2.87% non-focus 5* (total 5.70%) Green: 4.07% focus 5*, 2.91% non-focus 5* (total 6.98%) Colorless: 2.97% focus 5*, 1.78% non-focus 5* (total 4.75%)
  3. CYL doesn't matter anymore? What exactly are you basing that on, and what do you think is determining which new characters get in?
  4. Fortify Dragons at 4* is sweet, and I was not expecting a Brazen skill to show up on a non-5*-exclusive character anytime soon. Definitely upgrading him ASAP, and the other copies are Fortify Dragons fodder.
  5. There is absolutely no basis for that claim. Reina scored #197 on CYL2. Shigure scored #226, and we just got our second copy of him.
  6. Kaze does seem to have TT unit skills. And it's good to see that conventional enough seasonal weapons can get regular counterparts.
  7. Got Hinoka with about 150 orbs, so pretty much exactly average. Along the way, I managed to get 4* versions of Klein, Lucius, and Nanna, so now Soleil is my only missing 4*. Also a new 5* Sothe, who's +Atk/-HP instead of +Def/-Atk, which is a great improvement. I hadn't even realized my old Sothe was -Atk: with LaD and Peshkatz he reaches 52 Atk anyway.
  8. That was revealed when the Thracia update went out, since it's the one that added them to skill descriptions. So most of the initial discussion happened then, and it's why everyone is expecting the upcoming legendary hero to be an archer.
  9. Can confirm. And it's especially an incentive to go for a character right away because even if they appear on another banner in the near future, it could very well be a more diluted one.
  10. Huh, that could actually make a lot of sense. I've already been guessing Sakura with Mikoto's Bow, now I'm not sure which is more likely.
  11. Personally, I'm fine with alts as long as they're sufficiently varied and in appropriate numbers for the character. Chrom is an especially bad example with his four alts split across just two weapon types, while I'm fine with Lyn having four alts because she's one of the most popular characters and they all have different weapon types. That's not to say alts should never have the same weapon types, but they should have good enough justification to exist. Legendary Ephraim, for example, has a horse, a legendary elemental effect, and a personal passive skill. That adds up to a reasonable enough difference. Exalted Chrom, on the other hand, just has a horse. That's not really enough. Which I guess really comes down to same-weapon alts being fine for legendaries but not for non-legendaries. Not the only constraint, but it's a big one I wish they'd follow.
  12. So if Kaze really is the next TT unit, does that mean we'll probably get a GHB as the fourth unit for the May 10 banner? That'd be three GHBs in a row, which would be surprising but certainly welcome. Of course, it could also just be a four-unit banner like the FE5 one or something. But all the three-character banners so far have had at least one additional associated unit, to bring the total up to four or more.
  13. If we do get Sakura as the legendary hero, Mikoto's Yumi could be a fitting bow.
  14. Looking at units that have introduced new weapon/movement type combinations since launch: Green tome flier: Spring Camilla Blue tome flier: Summer Corrin Bow cavalry: CYL Lyn Red tome flier: Halloween Nowi Bow armor: Halloween Jakob Green tome armor: Halloween Henry Red tome armor: Christmas Tharja Green breath flier: Myrrh Blue tome armor: Valentine's Lyn Green breath armor: Fallen Robin Dagger flier: Spring Kagero Colorless breath flier: Legendary Robin Bow flier: Blue Sky Hinoka 12 alts, 1 non-alt. Conclusion: new unit types almost exclusively get introduced via alts. Reina could very well be added in the future. She scored 197 on CYL2, which is plenty reasonable. (Better than Shigure, for one thing.) She could be the second bow flier, like how female Morgan is the second blue tome flier. But with how new units have been getting handled, it makes perfect sense for her to not be the first bow flier.
  15. On CYL2, the beast units on the top 100 are: Selkie (21) Keaton (34) Panne (44) Kaden (46) Velouria (54) FE9 Ranulf (69) FE9 Lethe (86) FE10 Ranulf (87) So really heavily weighted towards Fates, especially at the top. Of course, for current banners, CYL1 is probably still more relevant: Selkie (59) Kaden (76) Keaton (78) Velouria (84) Panne (94) Which is pretty similar, just lower. Heroes does tend to like introducing new unit types one at a time, but I could see them breaking from that with beast units because they'd be an entirely new weapon type, so introducing just one would make them unable to inherit other weapons until more were released. It could go either way, though.
  16. Some sort of weapon named Kaze's Needle could make a lot of sense, whatever its effect is.
  17. Don't forget Joshua. I think it's highly unlikely for Kaze to have an old dagger, since all the inheritable non-seasonal daggers are from 1.0 and therefore are way behind the power level of the refined versions. Like with Water Breath on Kana, I'm guessing we're finally getting some sort of new regular dagger, but who knows what.
  18. Thinking about it more, I'm changing my Legendary Hero prediction from Takumi to the other Hoshido royal with bows as a primary offensive weapon: Sakura. Even with colored bows, another infantry archer Takumi would seem really silly, especially this soon after his other recent alts. A colored bow Takumi would really want to be a Kinshi Knight, but that'd make no sense right after getting Hinoka as our first Kinshi Knight. It'd make more sense to space them out, especially with one of them being legendary and having a cool new bow type. There's also the matter of element. A legendary Takumi would want to be Wind element, but it wouldn't make sense for the first two greens to both be Wind. Meanwhile, Sakura could fit nicely in Water, which is the most likely element for the upcoming one. So I'm predicting Sakura as a green bow infantry with Water element and a boost to... hmm. Res is the stat that'd make the most sense for her, but that's shared with Gunnthra. Is that a problem? I'm not sure. It's something I was expecting them to try to avoid, but I don't think it's as big of a priority as other things. It's probably fine. That's true, I forgot about that. It's certainly something they could do if they wanted to, but it's also a plenty good justification for avoiding it.
  19. I guess another Fates banner now means it may take a while before there's much of a chance of a beast banner, since most of the popular beasts are from Fates. Although this is Fates we're talking about, so who knows. Could be that backing off from the 3DS games in seasonal banners means doing more New Heroes banners with them.
  20. While I'm not the biggest fan of this banner, I think it's a lot better than the FE13 one. Bow flier Hinoka is way more interesting than yet another Chrom, and in addition to male/female versions of the self-insert's kid and a new TT unit, we've got Shigure as a regular version of a formerly seasonal-exclusive unit. If we have to keep getting this many alts, I'm glad we're starting to have them branch out more into side characters who don't have alts already. I think it's interesting that Hinoka got a new bow rather than the Pursuer, an S rank bow from her game that hasn't been added yet. I've speculated that Takumi might be the upcoming legendary hero with the Pursuer rather than a Fujin Yumi rehash, and that could be a reason for them to avoid the Pursuer here.
  21. Not necessarily. They could be pulling a Clive and associating a TT with an earlier banner for some reason. Or they could pull a Marisa and have a weird miscellaneous TT.
  22. My question is, do I pull for Hinoka immediately or wait to try for the legendary hero first? Probably Hinoka. I'm impatient. It's inheritable, but is there any indication of it being refinable?
  23. The May 10 banner will likely coincide with the release of version 2.5, and if they weren't planning on releasing the first colored bow user until 2.5 or later, it would be pretty strange for them to include colored bows in 2.4. Although it's true that we're working off just one reference point here.
  24. It would be strange for them to have two legendary dragons in a row. More importantly, the fact that there's no colored bow user on this banner basically confirms that the legendary hero will be a green bow user.
  25. They haven't said how we'll get him. My guess is he'll be the reward for the May TT.