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Oboro-Garasu

Golden Sun Mafia

1109 posts in this topic

Pay this no mind; I'm rather frustrated by my attempts to start another draft.

JAGEN IS BEING A DILLWEED.

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[quote name='eclipse' date='21 April 2012 - 06:59 AM' timestamp='1335005976' post='1948238']
I'll attempt some numbers, but my head hurts.

If the mafia flavor does follow the tower guardians, then there's two of them on the loose (if I remember my game lore correctly). Shinori's claiming that his role states that there's a third-party, so if all that information is correct, it's 3-2-1.

Absolute best-case scenario is that I find whoever's holding out on the LPV, and the mafia hits the third-party, making it 3-2. Even in that best-case scenario, a silenced townie, especially the mayor, is death for the town. . .but I think you're smart enough to figure that out.
[/quote]

Yes, exactly. That's why I'd like to know what everyone else thinks I ought to do. But why did you say that's the best-case scenario? Wouldn't that be, you know, lynching mafia? Why would lynching the LPV be better?

I still don't understand your objection to claiming your character, or to massclaiming at all, but particularly the former.

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Fuck that was really dumb of me, I'm sorry guys. I can't open the rules because they're in spoiler boxes and I assumed PMs would be okay, because I remembered them being okay on another mafia thread, and epicmafia indicated it was okay. I didn't realize that NOC meant No Outside Contact. I thought it had something to do with the Night and Day being fused together. Probably should have asked. Ugh... Well, sorry again for handicapping you guys like this. But you can still do it!

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Yeowza. I was [i]completely[/i] off with my prediction. I feel so stupid right now, holy god. [img]http://serenesforest.net/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/Facepalm_emote_gif.gif[/img]

Eclipse, I'm going to ask. Do you want me to claim to prove that I'm innocent and I just made an irreparable mistake? I honestly thought that his jumpiness meant that he had something to hide.

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Holy balls.
This game.
That shoots my theory of him out the window. Like wth proto lol.
Anyways, so that means 2(probably 3) of us here aren't actually town, right?
Dang.
I'm actually not against a mass claim. I mean, at this point it doesn't really matter if the mafia know WHO they are killing or not anyway.. Well I suppose they wouldn't want to kill the 3rd party instead of town, but whatever.

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[quote name='StrawSloththeSawSlothStraw' date='21 April 2012 - 01:40 PM' timestamp='1335030058' post='1948598']
I'm actually not against a mass claim. I mean, at this point it doesn't really matter if the mafia know WHO they are killing or not anyway.. Well I suppose they wouldn't want to kill the 3rd party instead of town, but whatever.
[/quote]

Yeah, but the nightkill is a secondary problem. First we need to not mislynch. I'm not sure about the rest, but I think Imp should definitely claim, since she's on the chopping block currently, and Eclipse should claim her character IMO since I don't see any reason why she shouldn't and I'm really suspicious of her.

Shinori, post opinions on everyone alive now, okay? Just because people think you're likely to be town doesn't mean you get to not contribute.

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Mornin'. This is why I don't do numbers when the RNG is throwing the improbably stupid at me (calculate the odds of missing two 85% attacks using the two RN system and report back).

Anyway, I'm Ivan, and my usage of the Impact Psynergy means that my vote counts double.

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Okay guys, sorry that I kinda vanished for the past bit... I've been sitting in a corner over here, trying to think of something that could work out with a decent chance of success, but not much came to my mind. Here a few numbers for those curious, always assuming the 3-2-1 scenario:

Probability for lynching a Mafia (overall): 17%
Probability for lynching a Mafia (town perspective): 20%
Probability for lynching a non-Town (overall): 50%
Probability for lynching a non-Town (town perspective): 60%
Probability for a single cross fire (assuming 3rd Party = SK): 50%
Probability for a double cross fire (assuming 3rd Party = SK): 10%

While that's all nice and good and certainly looks somewhat acceptable, the problem is that we have a Mayor and a Silencer claim. Those basically screw with what we can do since a mislynch can mean game over even in case of a single crossfire if they are mafia, in other words, if either eclipse or Kay are mafia and we don't lynch them, the probability of us losing right there is 90% (not exactly since there might not be a SK and it gets a bit lower due to a second crossfire chance in a specific scenario if there is one or we could lynch the other mafia, but you get the point).

So I think the best course of action would be to lynch either of them and pray that we picked right. It's not much, but at the moment I can't come up with anything else. My apologies.

[hr]

That being said, can anyone explain to me why the information Shinori has been giving us that there is a third party and that there [i]might[/i] be a LPV or something like that is a proper role in any way? The info feels incredibly specific and kinda useless at the same time to me.

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I seem to be incapable of doing simple calculations in this game...

[quote name='Kaoz' date='21 April 2012 - 11:21 PM' timestamp='1335043278' post='1948920']
Probability for lynching a Mafia (overall): 33%
Probability for lynching a Mafia (town perspective): 40%
[/quote]

This should be correct now and the rest of the post should also work as it is. Sorry about that.

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[quote name='BigBangMeteor' date='21 April 2012 - 02:18 PM' timestamp='1335017890' post='1948354']
Fuck that was really dumb of me, I'm sorry guys. I can't open the rules because they're in spoiler boxes and I assumed PMs would be okay, because I remembered them being okay on another mafia thread, and epicmafia indicated it was okay. I didn't realize that NOC meant No Outside Contact. I thought it had something to do with the Night and Day being fused together. Probably should have asked. Ugh... Well, sorry again for handicapping you guys like this. But you can still do it!
[/quote]
http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=31619&view=findpost&p=1923309

Anyways, different types of games work differently. And yes, you should have asked. Hopefully, you won't make the same mistake again.

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[quote name='Kaoz' date='21 April 2012 - 05:21 PM' timestamp='1335043278' post='1948920']
While that's all nice and good and certainly looks somewhat acceptable, the problem is that we have a Mayor and a Silencer claim. Those basically screw with what we can do since a mislynch can mean game over even in case of a single crossfire if they are mafia, in other words, if either eclipse or Kay are mafia and we don't lynch them, the probability of us losing right there is 90% (not exactly since there might not be a SK and it gets a bit lower due to a second crossfire chance in a specific scenario if there is one or we could lynch the other mafia, but you get the point).

So I think the best course of action would be to lynch either of them and pray that we picked right. It's not much, but at the moment I can't come up with anything else. My apologies.
[/quote]

Yeah, I had been trying to figure something out, but I just really don't want to bet on Eclipse being town. I gotta agree with Kaoz here. The chances aren't that amazing otherwise, anyway, and the odds of Eclipse being scum (or me, or either one of us, from another point of view) aren't that low.


SHINORI

You have been online since my last post yelling at you to talk. Why have you still not said anything? Post some opinions on what you think is the best course of action, who you think is town/scum, how on earth your role makes sense, etc.


Imp, why do you think the mayor test is necessary?

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[quote name='Kay' date='21 April 2012 - 04:40 PM' timestamp='1335062401' post='1949415']
Yeah, I had been trying to figure something out, but I just really don't want to bet on Eclipse being town. I gotta agree with Kaoz here. The chances aren't that amazing otherwise, anyway, and the odds of Eclipse being scum (or me, or either one of us, from another point of view) aren't that low.


SHINORI

You have been online since my last post yelling at you to talk. Why have you still not said anything? Post some opinions on what you think is the best course of action, who you think is town/scum, how on earth your role makes sense, etc.


Imp, why do you think the mayor test is necessary?
[/quote]

May I ask why you don't want to take the possibility that I'm town into consideration?

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[quote name='eclipse' date='21 April 2012 - 10:42 PM' timestamp='1335062574' post='1949425']
May I ask why you don't want to take the possibility that I'm town into consideration?
[/quote]

I realize it's a possibility, and I have taken it into consideration. I just don't think it's likely.

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I don't care how likely you think it is; I'm the one that sees my own role PM.

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[quote name='eclipse' date='21 April 2012 - 11:01 PM' timestamp='1335063709' post='1949481']
I don't care how likely you think it is; I'm the one that sees my own role PM.
[/quote]

And I'm the one who sees mine. It's not a very convincing argument.

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I've been wondering why this feels so damn familiar, and now I know. . .this is like KRRM the second. Guess who had a habit of responding SO LOUDLY that it discouraged others from reading, let alone form their own opinions and contribute?

[b]##Unvote
##Vote: Kay[/b]

It's trying to drown everyone else out with your own voice. It's not that easy to catch, but it's obvious to someone that knows what to look for. If you don't believe me, look back on this last day, and see who posted the most. It sure as hell wasn't me. Respond to this if you will, but the more I see from you, the less I like you.

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No I haven't actually been here too much. I refreshed the page a few times but i was actually busy most of the day. Why are you exactly all over me btw? Me and eclipse. It was pretty much proven multiple times i'm town. I mean never actually proven, but one of the most probable town in this game. I really don't like how you're acting.

[b]##Vote: Kay[/b]

[b]##Unvote[/b]

Waiting for mayor proof

I promise ill post more before night ends. but im busy atm.

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Crap, I really don't like how this phase is going but my brain is is like incapable of allowing me to think properly about this game. I think Kaoz and Shinori and myself need to claim.

I won't claim out full just yet, but I have a question I want Eclipse to answer that'll be pretty informative.

ECLIPSE. I wanted to ask you this earlier but I got nervous. WHY DID YOU TARGET ETHER AND I WITH YOUR CURSE ABILITY? I had a theory in my mind that made your choice of targets seem town oriented. But the more I think about it, the more suspicious it becomes. I understand using it over your mayor half(assuming you're telling the truth about your mayor ability) for cycle 0, but why choose to use your post restriction ability just to use it on Ether and myself who aren't usually the most active players anyways?

I know its probably dumb for me to give away so much, but I figured we're either losing after this cycle or, if we hit mafia, one of us still has to die anyway. Might make their choice a little harder. And this phase is stressin me out.

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Shinori, if you want Eclipse to claim shes mayor why don't you vote someone OTHER than kay. It proves nothing if you vote the same person she voted.

Also, for someone who is "pretty much proven town" why do you have the least town attitude out of anyone here!? in that post you offered basically nothing of help, didn't actually aid to the whole mayor testing thing, didn't post your opinions as requested by kay or eclipse or whoever earlier.

I feel like I'm beginning to doubt the "town" reads we've been getting on you.

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[quote name='Shinori' date='22 April 2012 - 12:32 AM' timestamp='1335069177' post='1949653']
No I haven't actually been here too much. I refreshed the page a few times but i was actually busy most of the day. Why are you exactly all over me btw? Me and eclipse. It was pretty much proven multiple times i'm town. I mean never actually proven, but one of the most probable town in this game. I really don't like how you're acting.

[b]##Vote: Kay[/b]

[b]##Unvote[/b]

Waiting for mayor proof

I promise ill post more before night ends. but im busy atm.
[/quote]

Shinori, have I not said it enough? I trust you more than anyone else alive right now. That's exactly why I want your input. Or would you rather the mafia be the ones doing all the brainstorming? Please, post some actual opinions on other people when you're less busy.

[quote name='eclipse' date='21 April 2012 - 11:40 PM' timestamp='1335066050' post='1949557']
I've been wondering why this feels so damn familiar, and now I know. . .this is like KRRM the second. Guess who had a habit of responding SO LOUDLY that it discouraged others from reading, let alone form their own opinions and contribute?

[b]##Unvote
##Vote: Kay[/b]

It's trying to drown everyone else out with your own voice. It's not that easy to catch, but it's obvious to someone that knows what to look for. If you don't believe me, look back on this last day, and see who posted the most. It sure as hell wasn't me. Respond to this if you will, but the more I see from you, the less I like you.
[/quote]

Discouraging others from contributing? Thank you, Eclipse, I had been trying to think of a good way to describe what you're doing. [i]I'm asking for everyone's opinions on everything.[/i] Is that more discouraging that stating "Okay, I'm mayor, this is my plan which is what we're doing this cycle and nobody else vote"?

Eclipse... why are you saying it's scummy for me to be posting a lot? I see what you mean, I've seen the argument before, usually by noobtown. "So-and-so is talking too much, they're mafia trying to influence everyone." Usually you want people to post a lot, though, so it's pretty ridiculous coming from you. Who's the person normally making half the posts in a game? Why is this any different than the normal situation, where mafia is reluctant to say much in case they slip up? Explain why my posting a lot now is bad, when posting a lot is normally good. What's so different about the way I'm posting or the amount or the situation? If that's what I'm trying to do, why am I yelling at people to talk when it apparently just makes me look worse?

I've been posting just about every idea that occurs to me this cycle, and responding to every question I notice about what I'm doing. You're taking an authoritative tone but your posts don't seem to have as much content. You've been discouraging discussion all game, shouting people down for giving away too much info. Some info benefits the town as much as the mafia, revealing things isn't necessarily always bad. You adamantly refused to claim all game until now, when you seemed to have no objection at all suddenly.

Why were you okay with claiming then, but not earlier? Frankly I'm kinda suspicious, because of how it was right after BBM died, and it makes sense for only one of Sheba/Ivan to be in the game.

You defended Paperblade, apparently over some RL issue or something (I'm sorry if you're town and/or this is a genuine thing, but the fact is that it's unverifiable information that is now relevant to the game).

What's so townish about you not posting?

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BTW, I meant you not posting as much in that last sentence, sorry.

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Frankly I'm not so sure of eclipse. That eclipse, and strawman. I've stated that these three are my most suspicious. Strawman and kaoz i think are the mafia and i was thinking that eclipse was going to be the third party, but if he's mayor that ruins my plans so thats why i am going to post here in a bit, I'm gonna re read the past few pages and post my thoughts later this night.

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I chose random people because I really hate sitting on what I've got. I know Ether doesn't post much anyway, so I figured he wouldn't hit the limit. Likewise, Strawman, you don't post that much. If I wanted to screw the town over, I would've hit someone like Prims, who can talk in a non-scummy way.

[quote name='Kay' date='21 April 2012 - 07:09 PM' timestamp='1335071397' post='1949705']
Shinori, have I not said it enough? I trust you more than anyone else alive right now. That's exactly why I want your input. Or would you rather the mafia be the ones doing all the brainstorming? Please, post some actual opinions on other people when you're less busy.



Discouraging others from contributing? Thank you, Eclipse, I had been trying to think of a good way to describe what you're doing. [i]I'm asking for everyone's opinions on everything.[/i] Is that more discouraging that stating "Okay, I'm mayor, this is my plan which is what we're doing this cycle and nobody else vote"?

Eclipse... why are you saying it's scummy for me to be posting a lot? I see what you mean, I've seen the argument before, usually by noobtown. "So-and-so is talking too much, they're mafia trying to influence everyone." Usually you want people to post a lot, though, so it's pretty ridiculous coming from you. Who's the person normally making half the posts in a game? Why is this any different than the normal situation, where mafia is reluctant to say much in case they slip up? Explain why my posting a lot now is bad, when posting a lot is normally good. What's so different about the way I'm posting or the amount or the situation? If that's what I'm trying to do, why am I yelling at people to talk when it apparently just makes me look worse?

I've been posting just about every idea that occurs to me this cycle, and responding to every question I notice about what I'm doing. You're taking an authoritative tone but your posts don't seem to have as much content. You've been discouraging discussion all game, shouting people down for giving away too much info. Some info benefits the town as much as the mafia, revealing things isn't necessarily always bad. You adamantly refused to claim all game until now, when you seemed to have no objection at all suddenly.

Why were you okay with claiming then, but not earlier? Frankly I'm kinda suspicious, because of how it was right after BBM died, and it makes sense for only one of Sheba/Ivan to be in the game.

You defended Paperblade, apparently over some RL issue or something (I'm sorry if you're town and/or this is a genuine thing, but the fact is that it's unverifiable information that is now relevant to the game).

What's so townish about you not posting?
[/quote]

Go reread Kamen Rider Ryuuki Mafia, no matter how much that game irritates you. Take a close look at the second-to-the-last day, especially JB's reaction. It's good to talk, but not to talk so much that no one can get a word in edgewise.

Also. . .

[quote name='Kay' date='21 April 2012 - 07:09 PM' timestamp='1335071397' post='1949705']You defended Paperblade, apparently over some RL issue or something (I'm sorry if you're town and/or this is a genuine thing, but the fact is that it's unverifiable information that is now relevant to the game).[/quote]

None of your business, and I refuse to answer any more shit like this; not only are you prying, this comes across as smearing.

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Mother fuck my head is hurting, next post might be a bit confusing whenever it's done but i'm gonna try my best to do this properly.

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Also eclipse are you up? If so could you answer strawmans question? I missed when you claimed that and i didn't think you had cause i still haven't found it while going through pages. Course i'm not looking for that specifically either.

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