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XCom Long War Ironman Impossible


Balcerzak
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Okay, I might be insane, but I'm willing to give this a try. I cannot guarantee I will succeed, but damned if we won't go down without a fight. For those of you not in the know, Long War is a mod for XCom (Enemy Within) that adds a lot of new content, and amps of the difficulty in several ways, while rebalancing it in others.

I will be playing with a custom namelist. I've already added in a bunch of Serenes Forest users who've stuck out to me for one reason or another in the past, as well as various other people from other places in my travels across the internet. I have not been arsed to sort names to genders, so if the RNG misgenders you, please do not take offense. If you want to be double-sure your name is on the list, I won't start the playthrough for at least seven days, to give you a chance to reply to the topic and such. Long War also gives you the option to rename your Interceptor pilots. I'm not sure where the game file for that is, so I'll just rename them manually as I order new birds for my hanger. I'll be accepting nominations for the names of these fellas as well.

Beta15 of Long War introduces some unique and interesting perks based on your starting country. These might not all be equally balanced, but I will pick the one I want, and you will deal with it. Additionally, I will restart after the first mission until I get steam vents etc. in positions that please me. This is my right, as I'm going to want every edge I can get to have a shot. After that, however, it'll be one save from start to end, just like it is supposed to be.

People will die. If you die, either because of RNG or gross incompetence on the part of the commander, do not complain to me. You knew the risks when you enlisted.

I don't have a set update schedule planned, but that might change if I get into a nice smooth routine. I will attempt to be as informative as I can be, but XCom is reasonably deep, and sometimes over-familiarity with a subject will numb you to the sorts of questions beginners might have on the subject. If something doesn't make sense, please ask!

Updates:

Update 0

Update 1

Update 2

Update 3

Update 4 (two parts)

Update 5 (two parts)

Update 6

Edited by Balcerzak
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Good fucking luck

Followed Beaglerush and N7 on their runs and it's fucking hell. I'm doing Long War myself on Classic and I'm in uhh, July?

Are you gonna run with Strict Screening or any of the DLC?

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and you will definitely not get it

Not with that attitude

Here is hope you will get all of the luck forever. May your Lightnings ignore rules and may your Specters shoot true

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Are you gonna run with Strict Screening or any of the DLC?

Just for you, Elie, here's update 0. I'll give a rundown of what I expect to start off with, discuss why, and also go into an extremely brief introduction to XCOM basics to help fill in the viewer who might not know exactly what is going on here. This first spoiler assumes the reader has a reasonable level of familiarity with the game already, and will not likely be accessible to someone seeing the game for the first time. If that is not the case, they should skip it for now, and maybe revisit it later, after I've introduced most of the concepts as they arise in actual gameplay. I will give a brief overall intro in the 2nd spoiler though, to sort of whet the appetite. For the record, all thumbnails should be clickable for larger versions, if you so choose, unless I fucked it up somewhere, in which case let me know.

[spoiler=How I rollin']

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Impossible Difficulty selected. Self-explanatory.

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For the Advanced Options I tick Ironman, as advertised, and I leave Operation Progeny checked. I don't own the Slingshot DLC, but even if I did, I don't think I'd use it, as getting access to a fusion core without having to shoot down a Battleship UFO seems hella unbalanced, especially for Long War, unless the mod changed that reward. In contrast, I can't think of any reason why Annette's missions shouldn't go into rotation, especially considering the changes to psionics in Long War, but I'd listen to opposing arguments if you have them. (The first two "Disabled" boxes are Tutorial options that were removed in Long War, IIRC.)

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For the Second Wave Options, the only one I'm using is Perfect Information, which has no real gameplay effect, and is solely there because I am curious about numbers, and if I get hit on a 1% I want to properly be able to rage about it. I feel like Strict Screening is a crutch, and a lot of the other Second Wave options change the game too radically for what should be a run of the mill Long War campaign. If I selected them I'd definitely be advertising them. But as long as we're on the subject of Second Wave...

[spoiler=Second Wave Options, in-depth]

  • Damage Roulette (#0): Weapons have a much wider range of damage. Adjusted for Long War to be less extreme than vanilla.
  • New Economy (#1): The funding offered by individual council members is randomized.
  • Strict Screening (#2): Rookies' starting stats are fixed at the averages of soldiers' typical ranges.
  • Hidden Potential (#3): Soldiers' level-up stats are randomized.
  • Training Roulette (#4): Each soldier's training tree will be partially randomly generated. Does not apply to MEC Troopers.
  • Save Scum (#5): Loading a save game will reset the random number seed, so taking an identical action may yield different results.
  • Red Fog (#6): Any wounds taken in combat will degrade a unit's aim and mobility stats while wounded or damaged. This applies to aliens, as well.
  • Absolutely Critical (#7): Flanking shots will receive a +100 bonus (instead of +50) to critical hit chances.
  • Liberators (#8): You must free all countries from alien control before launching the final mission of the campaign. Significantly will extend campaign time.
  • Dynamic War (#9): A tunable version of Long War with a new alien strategic AI, scaled number of missions and an adjusted economy. Default is 50% of standard Long War, but this can be changed by modding DefaultGameCore.ini.
  • Results Driven (#10): A country will offer less funding as its panic increases.
  • Cinematic Mode (#11): XCOM units are significantly more accurate in tactical combat.
  • Diminishing Returns (#12): The cost of satellites increases with every one that is built.
  • Wear and Tear (#13): Items carried by soldiers will sometimes wear out after missions and require repair, even if the soldier isn't injured.
  • Itchy Trigger Tentacle (#14): Upon being revealed, some aliens may attempt to shoot at soldiers instead of moving or going into Overwatch.
  • War Weariness (#15): Overall funding levels drop inexorably with every month that passes. Adjusted for Long War.
  • Bronzeman Mode (#16): Allows restart of tactical missions via pause menu in Ironman mode. (Restarts are automatically enabled for non-Ironman games).
  • Total Loss (#17): Sometimes lose gear from soldiers who die in combat or are left behind on missions (Default chance is 40%).
  • Commander's Choice (#18): You may select the class for each soldier upon promotion to specialist. Use the cycle-soldier icons at the bottom of the class selection screen in the barracks view to rotate through classes.
  • Aiming Angles (#19): Units receive an aim bonus the closer they are to flanking an enemy.
  • Mind Hates Matter (#20): Genetically modified soldiers cannot undergo psi testing; gifted soldiers can never receive genetic modifications.
  • Hidden Trees (#21): You cannot see perk options for ranks a given soldier has not attained.
  • Durability (#22): Items never need to be repaired, although you will need to build a Repair Bay to augment MEC troopers. This overrides the 'Wear and Tear' option.
  • United Humanity (#23): EXALT is inactive. EXALT troopers may still show up on alien missions.
  • The Friendly Skies (#24): Your interceptors are significantly more accurate during air combat.
  • We Are Legion (#25): Start with the two squad size increases already developed, and use additional troops on some covert ops missions.
  • Miracle Workers (#26): Repairing items costs no resources, only time.
  • Quick and Dirty (#27): Many missions will have fewer aliens overall. INI adjustments to increase fragment income is recommended.
  • Perfect Information (#28): You will see enemy to-hit values.
  • Recon (#29): You will see meld cans and bomb nodes in the fog.
Choices 0, 1, 3, 4 just serve to add more RNG to the mix, and that generally doesn't really sit well with me.

Choices 2, 11, 18, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, and 29 are all ways of making the campaign easier, which doesn't jive with the feel of IRONMAN IMPOSSIBLE.

Choices 5 and 16 don't apply, because Ironman. Shoutout does go to Bronzeman mode though, which became my new default way to play, as it reminds me of the Fire Emblem tradition of restarting a map from the beginning, allowing you to correct for tactical errors, but not strategic ones (like forgetting to buy weapons/training the wrong units/etc.)

Choices 6, 7, 9, 14, and 19 are all choices that I would consider valid and fun to try, but fundamentally alter the game

Choices 8, 10, 12, 13, 15, 17, 20 are all ways of making the campaign more difficult, which I'm not comfortable with without many campaigns successfully under my belt. Possible exception goes out to Mind Hates Matter (#20) though, that might be fun, thematic, and only alters the game in a minor way.

Choice 21 doesn't make sense to pick unless Choice 4 is also taken.

Choice 28 is selected, for the reasons I already mentioned.

Now, you could argue that if "more RNG doesn't really sit well with me" I should take Strict Screening, but the thing is that variance is the default variance. If they had a second wave option that made all guns always do their average damage roll, I wouldn't take that either.

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This is the starting base I'm considering, as it looks to be one of the strongest. Let's go into a little more theory on that though...

[spoiler=Base choices and reasonings]

There are a number of things to consider when making your base choice. First is obviously the unique benefit given, while the second is which starting continent it's on, and the associated continent bonus. While, yes, unlike vanilla you don't get the continent bonus for free and you still need to full cover it, having one satellite up for free is a huge leg forward, especially considering that how nasty the air game is in Long War, you're not liable to be able to afford to head to a second continent before full covering your initial one. So let's begin by looking at the continent bonuses, and work our way out from there.

  • South America: Power to the People: Power facilities cost 30% less to build and maintain.
  • North America: Air Superiority: Aircraft and aircraft weapons cost 25% less to purchase and maintain.
  • Africa: Architects of the Future: Laboratories and Workshops cost 30% less to build and maintain.
  • Europe: Wealth of Nations: Monthly XCOM funding increased by 20%.
  • Asia: New Warfare: Foundry projects have cash, alloy and elerium cost reduced by 25% percent.
South America requires only two satellites, North America and Africa require three satellites, while Europe and Asia require four. With Long War having changed uplinks to only give one satellite capacity (plus one for each adjacency) that means in order to cover Europe or Asia you need at least two uplinks beyond your starting free uplink, in other words, you're not going to see that full cover bonus for months as you grind up the engineers and cash to accomplish that. The most likely scenario is that it takes all your money to just build the first new uplink and one satellite in March, meaning only South America can full cover by the first council report, but North America and Africa aren't that far behind, as they can pretty easily finish coverage sometime mid-April, which would allow them to start reaping the discounts as they begin to expand interceptor fleet or build a lab. The fact of the matter is, though, that after you build that first uplink, you're almost always going to need to build a power plant next, which is another argument in South America's favor, however, considering the fact that the income you get from Brazil ($100) and Argentina ($70) is barely more than the income you'd have from starting in the US ($160) not to mention wherever a second satellite in NA would go (either Canada for $90 or Mexico for $80)... the 30% saving on your first Thermal Generator is only $105, and the savings on upkeep is only $10 a month. So after one month you're $25 ahead of NA, and then in April they get their bonus, buy an interceptor, and wreck your lead. The situation is probably worse for Africa, with their nations being poorer, and the first Labs and Workshops probably not rolling out until May.

So... I'll be starting in North America, as that seems to be the most logical choice. Where in NA, though is still open. I'm including the full list of starting base bonuses, just for completeness, and will probably mention some of the ones that I feel are especially strong, even though I won't end up taking them. Options I don't find appealing at all won't even be brought up. It's also worth noting, that in many case you'll get a watered down version of the initial base bonus just for having a satellite above the country, which is a useful perk, and can make decisions on which countries to cover in which order on the way to full coverage a little more interesting than "this one has more dollars".

Initial Base Bonus:

  • Argentina: Patriae Semper Vigilis: All soldiers receive +5 will.
  • Australia: Per Ardua Ad Astra: All soldiers receive +5 ability points for stat rolls upon recruitment.
  • Brazil #1: Jungle Scouts: Early armors (Tac Vest and Tac, Kestrel, Phalanx and Aurora Armors) receive an additional small item slot until Tactical Rigging is developed.
  • Brazil #2: Expertise: +15% bonus to research credits from interrogations.
  • Brazil #3: On Our Own: No unique bonus.
  • Canada #1: Advanced Preparations: XCOM HQ starts with a Laboratory and Workshop already built.
  • Canada #2: Cadre: Start with four corporals in the barracks, on of each supraclass.
  • China #1: Wei Renmin Fuwu: Start with a Workshop and Repair Bay already built.
  • China #2: Xenological Remedies: 100% bonus cash from alien corpse and wreck sales.
  • China #3: Deus Ex: 50% reduction in genemod meld and cash cost and modification time.
  • Egypt #1: Gift of Osiris: Fatigue from psi powers, genemods and officer ranks reduced by 50%.
  • Egypt #2: For the Sake of Glory: Start with Advanced Repair foundry project, which grants faster repair time for aircraft, mechanized units and damaged soldier gear.
  • France #1: Quai d'Orsay: Country item requests occur 40% faster; fulfilled requests provide 40$ additional defense, and intel scans cost 40% less.
  • France #2: Foreign Legion: Start with 20 additional soldiers in the barracks.
  • Germany #1: Skunkworks: XCOM HQ starts with the Foundry already built.
  • Germany #2: Baumeister: Facility construction time reduced by 33%.
  • Germany #3: NeoPanzers: 50% reduction in cash, alloy and elerium required for MEC and SHIV primary weapons.
  • Germany #4: On Our Own: No unique bonus.
  • India: Jai Jawan: Start with 2 additional interceptors in your home base and Elerium Afterburners foundry project, granting extended interception time.
  • Japan #1: Ring of Fire: XCOM HQ has 3 additional Steam Vents.
  • Japan #2: Ghost In The Machine: SHIVs receive +10 aim, and you start the campaign with two SHIVs in the barracks.
  • Japan #3: Kiryu-Kai Commander: Start with a Master Seargeant of a random class on your roster.
  • Japan #4: Robotics: +5 bonus aim for new SHIVs and MEC troopers.
  • Japan #5: On Our Own: No unique bonus.
  • Mexico #1: Wealthy Benefactor: Start with 500 bonus cash.
  • Mexico #2: Ancient Artifact: Start the campaign with an Illuminator Gunsight small item.
  • Mexico #3: Legacy of Uxmal: 20% bonus to psionic training chances.
  • Nigeria #1: Pax Nigeriana: All soldiers receive +1 mobility.
  • Nigeria #2: The Old Path: 50% reduction in psi training time.
  • Nigeria #3: On Our Own: No unique bonus.
  • Russia #1: Sukhoi Company: Start with Enhanced Avionics foundry project, granting +10% to hit during air combat.
  • Russia #2: Roscosmos: Start with an additional satellite uplink, and all satellites cost 50% less to build.
  • South Africa #1: Resourceful: Start with Alien Metallurgy and Advanced Salvage foundry projects (bonus alloys and weapon fragments).
  • South Africa #2: Survival Training: All soldiers receive +1 hit point.
  • United Kingdom #1: Special Air Service: All soldiers receive +3 aim.
  • United Kingdom #2: Their Finest Hour: Start with Penetrator Weapons foundry project, granting interceptor weapons increased armor piercing capabilities.
  • United Kingdom #3: Sandhurst: 33% reduction in ranks required to unlock Officer Training School projects.
  • United States #1: Special Warfare School: Officer Training School Projects cost 90% less.
  • United States #2: Cheyenne Mountain: XCOM HQ starts with all elevators already built, and excavation costs are reduced by 50%.
  • United States #3: We Have Ways: 75% reduction in time to complete autopsies and interrogations.
  • Untied States #4: On Our Own: No unique bonus.
Brazil's Jungle Scouts option looks amazing at first glance, as that's a huge early power spike. But it's only for the weakest couple of tiers of armor, and while it will definitely help your tactical through the rough and tumble early game, honestly Long War doesn't let up that much by Carapace. Sure, you'll have ranked up some good troops, and probably had an easier time doing it thanks to extra grenades, medkits, platings, but now your advantage is gone and you're left flapping in the wind. Novelty choice, not really as good as it looks, imo.

Canada's Advanced Prep is almost certainly a trap (China's Wei Renmin Fuwu is a nearly identical situation). Those building aren't going to have extra power, so you're going to have to rush a genny to get an uplink. What's worse, the starting placement will probably fuck any chance you have of making nice adjacency blocks. Avoid.

Canada's Cadre has potential, on the other hand, as Corporal's allow for building Officer Training School right away. However, the total soldier ranks requirement will still hold you back from early squad size purchases. That said, the ability to coast on some early missions due to a nice perk lead is somewhat enticing.

China's Xenological remedies looks like a nice way to boost your cast flow, but I'm often selling meld, elerium, power supplies, etc. which don't benefit from the boost. It could be my personal fault for holding on to corpses when I shouldn't be, but this perk isn't that strong imo, especially because base China coverage still provides a lesser 34% boost if you need it later.

Egypt's For the Sake of Glory is a perk that not only looks amazing, but actually is. The Advanced Repair foundry project costs $500, 100 alloys, 80 meld, substantial research time, and is gated behind Heavy Floater autopsy, meaning it will probably be November or something ridiculous before it's feasible to pick up on its own. The $500 savings alone matches one of Mexico's perks (poor Mexico), and having your interceptors on a quicker turn-around since day one is going to be huge for your air game, as they'll almost always be taking more punishment than you'd like. This is a perk that would make me actually consider an Africa start, no joke.

France's Quai d'Orsay is actually a quite interesting pick up, as council requests are often the best way you have of getting more scientists and engineers, by trading corpses etc. to nations that request them. Having requests come out nearly twice as often means you can get a significant boost there, not to mention you can afford to be more choosy about which deals you accept. Saving cash on intel scans for EXALT is also quite a big boon in the long haul. A seriously good perk, that is sadly stuck in Europe, where I'm hard pressed to consider a decent start.

France's Foreign Legion on the other hand, is kind of laughable, imo. The $25 per soldier that those 20 soldiers cost is equal to the $500 Mexico bonus, except you don't have the freedom to spend it on other things. You have to be losing a damn lot of men to need that many reserves too. It can definitely happen, but you shouldn't go in assuming it will off the bat, imo.

Germany's Baumeister is a very interesting option, but I'm not really sure how to compare it against other perks to be honest. Time saved on construction is only really important if you have a hard deadline (council report, etc.) that you otherwise would have serious negative consequences for failing to meet. A lot of time this perk isn't helping you.

India's Jai Jawan is actually pretty strong looking. The cost of Elerium Afterburners is $200, 30 alloys, 30 elerium, 2 power sources, and it's gated behind Alien Propulsion, which is way down there in the tech tree. Now, it's arguable that your base interceptors can make full use of the extra 5 seconds, as survival is questionable, but if it means you only damage one too shoot down a disc rather than putting two birds up for repair, that can be a huge benefit. Not to mention, you also get the two free interceptors for a $400 savings anyway! A shame it's in Asia, but it would make India an attractive base there if you were looking for some extra challenge but not too much extra, imo.

Japan's Ring of Fire is a trap, you're not going to need 5 vents, many of them will go to waste. Avoid.

Japan's Kiryu-Kai Commander on the other hand... I'm just imagining this Master Sergeant (the highest rank a soldier can be promoted to) carrying the whole squad through earlygame. Obviously the fatigue mechanic keeps him in check, and there's only so much one man can do without a similarly trained squad, especially when shit hits the fan. But it'd be worth a try at some point, that's for sure.

Mexico's Ancient Artifact gives the Illuminator Gunsight, a sweet piece of equipment at +12 aim, +12 crit, and free Executioner perk. But part of me has trouble justifying passing up some of the really nice strategic options for a purely tactical benefit.

Russia's Suhkov Company gives Improved Avionics, which would otherwise cost $400, 10 alloys, 50 weapon fragments, 3 flight computers, and gated behind Advanced Aerospace concepts. +10 hit to your interceptors is good, yes, but is it as good as the Egypt or India perks? I guess it's Europe's alternative.

Russia's Roscosmos looks impressive, and maybe it is, but the early uplink doesn't power itself, so you'll be rushing a genny, and you are still 10 engineers away from building the next one, so you're not really getting rid of the disadvantage of being unable to cover as quickly as non-Europe, non-Asia continents can. Still, 50% saved on every satellite ever (including replacements for those that get shot down, this savings can get scary high in Long War), and a $200 building at no cost is nothing to sneeze at.

South Africa's Resourceful is a monster in its own right. The Alien Metallurgy upgrade increases your alloy recovery by 20% and costs $300, 30 alloy, 10 elerium, and 100 meld!! Considering alloys can often be the sticking point on whether you can build something or not, gathering more of them quicker is amazing, and that's an expensive foundry research out of the way early. But there's also Improved Salvage, boosting your weapon fragments recovered by 20% that also costs $200, 40 alloys, 20 elerium, and 40 meld!! Considering I often hit the point where my scientists have nothing to research because I'm short on fragments, this is also a no brainer to get ASAP, and having it from day one is kind of insane. Might be a better choice than the Egypt one, but they cover different aspects of the game so it's hard to judge.

United Kingdom's Their Finest Hour gives you Penetrator Weapons, an upgrade that would otherwise cost $300, 80 alloys, 45 weapon fragments, 3 Cyberdisk wrecks, 3 flight computers, and an Advanced Aerospace degree. It also means you won't have to worry about equipping some of your initial interceptors with Stingrays to handle the April fighters coming your way, and a lot of peace of mind in easier UFO shootdowns. Would consider if doing Europe for some reason.

United Kingdom's Sandhurst seems like a trap (and similarly the United States' Special Warfare School). Outside of the squad size upgrades, the rest of the Officer Training options are not usually on my "must immediately buy" list, but perhaps I undervalue them and should reconsider.

United States' Cheyenne Mountain seems like a good deal, but I think the elevators will take enough power that you can't immediately build that uplink. How much you need to excavate and when is also pretty random, so while the savings are definitely there, I don't consider it amazing.

United States' We Have Ways is a nerfed version of the vanilla continent bonus for South America. The less time wasted on autopsies and interrogations, the better, as they're often gates to important new techs or foundry projects. Of the North American options I think it's easily the strongest, but will listen to other opinions.

[spoiler=What exactly is XCOM, you ask?]

Maybe this isn't completely the right was to categorize it, but I'd consider it a strategic and tactical roleplaying game. (Bear with me if you disagree. I'll explain.) You take the role of the commander of the XCOM project to eliminate the extraterrestrial threat, and you do so both in a strategic fashion during what's frequently referred to as the Geoscape, where you prioritize your current research projects, build additions to your base, order new equipment, manage your resources, and more. This aspect is teased at in the handful of screenshots below.

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In additon to that, there's the tactical phase, where you take a squad of soldiers down to the action and lead the command of what is sometimes called the Battlescape. As your soldiers complete more missions and kill more aliens, they gain experience and will be promoted through the ranks, essentially levelling up, at which time they gain stats and more importantly, they unlock new perks. A couple of shots showing the Battlescape (on non-consecutive turns mind you) are shown below, as well as one giving a peek at what levelling up a soldier looks like. While on the field soldiers can move and perform a variety of different actions. I'll get into all of that in a lot more detail during the actual first update, but a lot of the key concepts can already be seen, such as different qualities of cover, "blue moves" vs "gold moves", sizing up your chance to hit enemy units, and so on.

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Also, if at any point people feel I'm either going into too much, or not enough detail, feel free to speak up, otherwise I'll just keep on plowing along at whatever pace I'm on, and people may or may not be disappointed with the results.

Finally, I've taken the liberty of adding anyone who's posted so far to the namelist. If you would prefer I use a name that is not your current username (in favor of a past one, or one you're thinking of changing to in the future, or really anthing), or if you would like to not be added (for whatever reason), go ahead and let me know. Also, just stating again, but being on the list does not guarantee your trooper gets rolled up when the game starts, there's a lot of names and only so many soldiers at the start. That said, I have been trimming and refining it, and to be honest, though this is not a promise, frequent posters may end up being added to the roster manually (overwriting the name of some poor sap who isn't paying attention) depending on my mood.

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Having an early Master Sgt would be nice for early game considering rookies are only useful for grenades and crap.

in my Classic run, I went with the US for the 90% cost reduction for OfficerTrainingSchool perks. Having affordable SquadSize boosts makes a huge impact, because you can maintain keeping your funds for Aircraft and stuff that North America's bonus offers, and other weaponry. Officer Training School perks are so pricey in Long War, and unless you feel like dumping hundreds of cash into just increasing your field deployment slots and Command bonuses, and seriously, $20 for SquadSize+1 instead of $200 is a ridiculously cheap cost for a longterm perk for early game.

That being said, I'm not DABES and you might prefer something else? I either misread or looked over the nation+perk you're choosing...?

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500 bonus cash from Mexico is so good because you can get your satellites up faster in NA, giving you the Air Force discount faster, as well as have money to buy more interceptors with that new discount.

While the 90% discount from OTS upgrades are nice, you only really need 2 of them early game, and that's Squad Size I and the first Officer perk; if you get NA covered, you get the discounts for air game much faster, which will give you more mission and money overall from being able to shoot down UFOs back to back.

Edited by N7 Commander John
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Not with that attitude

Here is hope you will get all of the luck forever. May your Lightnings ignore rules and may your Specters shoot true

Assuming you won't get lucky is probably a good attitude to have when playing this game

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It's definitely an incredibly complicated game. Basically, unless the single RN system means that unless you see 100% on your shots, you'd better plan to run a backup procedure.

For what it's worth, early game makes you feel lucky when you fire with 60%s

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