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31 minutes ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

Why doesn't FEH do this?

The first reason is because the probability is exactly [stated probability for a rarity pool]/[number of units in that pool]%.

If you see a focus rate of 3% and 3 units in the pool, it's exactly 1% per unit before you know the color of the pull.

 

The second reason is actually technical. The screens that show the list of possible pulls in both Heroes and F/GO, for example, are static web pages embedded in a mobile app.

F/GO lists the exact rates for ever possible pull on their page, and this makes sense because the rate never changes after the banner is released.

Heroes would need to pass information from the app to the web page to update the rates on each individual pull based on how high your pity rate currently is, which is work for very little gain.

 

The third reason is because Heroes provides the player with additional information about their pull before they select which thing to pull, which means you can influence your own results by your own choices. Does it make more sense to list the pull rate for a particular pull overall, or given a specific color? Would people understand the difference between the former and the latter (answer is "no")? Would people understand why individual green pulls have higher rates than individual blue pulls (answer is "no")? If both are shown, would people understand why they are different (answer is "no")?

Probability after some new information is known after the initial rates are given (in other words, conditional probability) is something that confuses people and could be an absolute nightmare for your HR team to have to answer questions about it all the time.

In contrast, the other games I'm familiar with (F/GO and Tales of Asteria) simply make you press a single button to get x number of pulls without the ability to influence your results from the stated rates.

Edited by Ice Dragon
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Even though two Seasonals in a row has me wary for the future, this banner has made me the happiest to just grind up new units in months.  I can't wait to use Wolf Mama and the Peep Crew.  Too bad it will be another year until we see Tellius again.  RIP Nolan and Jill among others.

 

With the release of this Tellius banners, I was fully expecting to see a Fates Banner with Keaten, Kaden, Velouria, and Selkie, since I think they're among the most popular units not in the game yet, but since it will be at least until late Fabruary that we have another normal banner, maybe my optimism was misplaced.

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Yeah, next seasonal should better be a good surprise =/. It just reeks of altmania again. After reading about the idea about some collaboration I'd rather have this then another alts. Even as one who belongs to the Camilla yay faction. At least a collab could be nice if it fits the setting.

And there are still many units left who are liked by the players. With a limited amount of new banners some of them might never see the light. I even tend to give up on Rinkah for the next fate banner. My only hope might be a mixed banner or the treatment Charlotte had. And there she was in the top 100 on CYL2...

As for PoR/Rd Ena and Lucia are still on my list. 

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11 hours ago, Garlyle said:

So the next promised banner is in March, what can be our expectations after CYL2? (green improved since CYL1, red dropped back a lot)

Rank Character Votes
151 Idunn 1,697
159 Rutger 1,561
230 Lugh 1,038
239 Dieck 980
265 Gonzalez 857
276 Lot 802
286 Sue 766
307 Perceval 696
319 Echidna 670
321 Wolt 654
330 Melady 618
350 Thite 537
398 Brunnya 444
417 Guinivere 407
438 Hugh 337
457 Igrene 296
470 Noah 276
491 Galle 255
510 Geese 232
517 Dorothy 222
519 Chad 219
523 Larum 218
528 Saul 213
539 Lance 198
543 Niime 197
544 Cath 194
564 Merlinus 164
571 Zeiss 159
574 Sin 156
576 Murdock 155
587 Marcus 143
589 Alen 141
592 Elffin 140
610 Bors 123
626 Ogier 111
633 Elen 104
644 Trec 95
652 Douglas 93
689 Jahn 68
690 Juno 65
713 Barthe 54
715 Astolfo 53
744 Garret 40
749 Wade 38
765 Zelot 34
773 Yoder 30
781 Dayan 27

I'm thinking Rutger, Lugh, Sue, and Echidna on the banner, and an Idunn GHB.

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5 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

In contrast, the other games I'm familiar with (F/GO and Tales of Asteria) simply make you press a single button to get x number of pulls without the ability to influence your results from the stated rates.

Okay. Thanks for the very detailed explanation!

Seemed shady, but it just really avoids a headache. Perhaps FEH is actually rather generous in allowing one to snipe colors, would've been useful for DL where I never got a fourth Wind unit nevermind I had a pile of Wyrmite worth 100+ summons by the time I quit.

 

Sniping I guess is why summons have to be done individually. Would be nice if there was a way to highlight multiple Orbs and then tap summon just once. Tap a unit after the summon if you wanted the intro dialogue you skipped, I know it'd be but a few seconds spared, but it'd be a nice little convenience.

 

2 hours ago, Rezzy said:

With the release of this Tellius banners, I was fully expecting to see a Fates Banner with Keaten, Kaden, Velouria, and Selkie, since I think they're among the most popular units not in the game yet, but since it will be at least until late Fabruary that we have another normal banner, maybe my optimism was misplaced.

With Velouria and Keaton, from Nohr, we'd have only the following left not included:

Spoiler
  1. Non-seasonal Charlotte
  2. Nyx
  3. Benny
  4. Forrest
  5. Ignatius
  6. Percy

And the shared characters of:

  1. Mozu (more Hoshidan though)
  2. Shura (better come with a movement skill)
  3. Izana
  4. Midori (more Hoshidan though)
  5. Sophie
  6. Dwyer

So in other words, Nohr is close to running out of units. With Velouria and Keaton, we have only 8 exclusives, and 14 units total.

Hoshido by contrast has the following exclusives left unincluded:

  1. Rinkah
  2. Hayato
  3. Reina
  4. Orochi
  5. Kaden
  6. Scarlet
  7. Yukimura
  8. Selkie
  9. Kiragi
  10. Mitama
  11. Caeldori
  12. Asugi
  13. Hisame

So 13 vs. 8. And all but two of the shared characters left, and Fuga, are Hoshidan in appearance.

Altogether, 13 + 8 + 6 + 1 = 28 unincluded Fates PCs leaving out Anna left. 

 

By contrast, even if I leave out most RD-exclusive PCs due to being so underdeveloped so they're deadweight, were still missing even with this Laguz banner:

Spoiler
  1. Ilyana
  2. Tauroneo
  3. Jill 
  4. Zihark
  5. Tormod
  6. Muarim
  7. Rafiel
  8. Marcia
  9. Haar
  10. Brom
  11. Lucia
  12. Lethe
  13. Mordecai
  14. Geoffrey
  15. Astrid
  16. Kieran
  17. Makalov
  18. Danved/Devdan
  19. Largo
  20. Calill
  21. Rolf
  22. Boyd
  23. Shinon
  24. Gatrie
  25. Rhys
  26. Ranulf
  27. Janaff
  28. Ulki
  29. Tanith
  30. Skrimir
  31. Stefan
  32. Bastian
  33. Volke
  34. Pelleas
  35. Sephiran
  36. Ena
  37. Nasir 
  38. Kurthnaga
  39. Caineghis

And while someone like Largo and Devdan and Muarim aren't like to get in, I could've added Lyre, Sigrun, and Vika. Heather's lesbianism and Volug's chest might be entertaining too.

I pick Tellius, since something like Thracia or Archanea have lots of underdeveloped characters, including some who never actually say a word. Everyone from PoR however has a personality with some measure of exploration and development.

FE4 got two banners last year- Quan and co., and Ares and co., we need a Path of Radiance one later this year.

 

And while we're at it, let us see how Awakening fares, how it compares with its heir called Fates.:

Spoiler
  1. Vaike
  2. Miriel
  3. Kellam
  4. Ricken
  5. Panne
  6. Gregor
  7. Say'ri
  8. Basilio
  9. Flavia
  10. Non-Seasonal Inigo
  11. Non-Seasonal Noire
  12. Severa
  13. Cynthia
  14. Brady
  15. Kjelle
  16. Yarne
  17. Laurent
  18. Nah
  19. Gangrel
  20. Emmeryn
  21. Yen'fay
  22. Priam

So at first, Awakening doesn't look so shabby, it has only six non-Robinsexual Gen 1s left. Add in those Robinsexuals and the Gen 2s however, and you see it is much worse. Despite being only one game, unlike the semi-two of Fates, it has only six fewer character missing. 

 

Now how about that supposed other darling FE7- if you can call it one? Well don't let the amount of Lyn and Hector favoritism fool you:

Spoiler
  1. Sain 
  2. Kent
  3. Wil
  4. Erk
  5. Rath
  6. Nils
  7. Wallace
  8. Lowen
  9. Marcus
  10. Oswin
  11. Guy
  12. Dart
  13. Fiora
  14. Isadora
  15. Heath
  16. Geitz
  17. Pent
  18. Louise
  19. Farina
  20. Harken
  21. Vaida
  22. Renault
  23. Athos

Despite having a smaller cast than Awakening, it has only one fewer characters still missing. And I didn't include Nergal, Limstella, or the easy sell of Sonia. And like PoR, this game has supports, its characters are developed to some degree, and this is past the problematic start of supports that FE6 was.

Five ladies only though. And Vaida is much too unappealing for most superficial men I think. I'd like Farina though, I dislike Awakening and thereafter Anna, but Farina I somehow do. Maybe because she was never as intrusive and isn't a franchise mascot.

 

And while I'm at it, how about the other game with many good supports from the GBA era, SS:

Spoiler
  1. Franz
  2. Vanessa
  3. Gilliam
  4. Moulder
  5. Ross
  6. Garcia
  7. Neimi
  8. Colm
  9. Artur
  10. Natasha
  11. Kyle
  12. Forde
  13. Gerik
  14. Tethys
  15. Dozla
  16. Saleh
  17. Ewan
  18. Cormag
  19. Rennac
  20. Duessel
  21. Knoll
  22. Syrene

 

And for Creature Campaign only PCs, many bleh:

  1. Orson
  2. Selena
  3. Caellach
  4. Ismaire
  5. Riev
  6. Glen
  7. Hayden
  8. Fado

Thirty-three PCs

total in the story, yet

only eleven.

 

Plenty of men left, many older. Yet they have five PC women left, six with Selena Fluorspar (I'm leaving out Ismaire). With two per-four character banner, and one for the last with Selena GHB, we could save a few good men. Cormag, Gerik, Forde, Ross, Duessel, Saleh, Knoll (my personal preferences), that would leave: Franz, Rennac, Ewan, Gilliam, Colm, Artur, Kyle, Garcia, and Moulder to freeze and drown in the North Atlantic, not that I'd be happy with killing them like that.

Arguably better than SoV though. Good luck deciding which two-three lucky guys of 12 are saved by Tatiana, Silque and Rinea. Nomah and Mycen will die, Leon can cry an ocean too. I'd hazard Conrad and Zeke will escape the pyre.

Edited by Interdimensional Observer
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4 hours ago, DraceEmpressa said:

Two consecutive seasonals.... I wonder if I finally will see bow dancer, non-infantry lance/axe/green tome valor skill carriers , or hell, maybe beast valor.

tbh any regular Dancer after L. Azura is kinda moot, ecxept for Laguz Dancers because they can move 3 spaces, horse dancer or Armor dancer.

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14 minutes ago, Hilda said:

tbh any regular Dancer after L. Azura is kinda moot, ecxept for Laguz Dancers because they can move 3 spaces, horse dancer or Armor dancer.

it is , but I am just hoarding dancers of every weapon type in case of valor seals corresponding to that weapon are released. It's the similar reason why I want non-infantry lance/axe/gtome valor bearers. 

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Hmm, even ignoring the fact that it's skill studies rather than GM, this weeks Tactics Drills were a lot more railroaded (and therefore easier), than normal. Of course, it's kind of hard not to be obvious with only 2 player controlled units, but I did manage to fuck up Corrin & Azura last week, so yeah.

 

I do like the design of the drills, though, but it'd be more interesting if more units were involved while also keeping the 'right moves' obvious with unit placement. Managed both drills on the first attempt, but that's more because the drills are easy than anything else.

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3 hours ago, Hilda said:

tbh any regular Dancer after L. Azura is kinda moot, ecxept for Laguz Dancers because they can move 3 spaces, horse dancer or Armor dancer.

Please everyone vote for legendary Azura.  Now they might pull something with the upcoming legendary banner with a little nod nod wink wink by Feh encouraging everyone, but as of now L! Azura with the power creeped dance and insane Prayer Wheel seems like the ultimate prize.  Being a legendary unit also so very limited and hard to get.  Barring some huge broken surprise in January mythic banner (Is that Caeneghis or Dheginsea?) all my votes will go to her if indeed Hero Rises returns.

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8 minutes ago, silverserpent said:

*has learned after 15 years that Naesala rocks long hair* I don't remember if he had a ponytail in PoR/RD, I don't remember seeing one in any of his sprites. Artistic flair strikes again for Heroes?

You can barely see his ponytail in his PoR and RD artwork and portraits and one Cipher art. Part of it is his wings covering his back and the other part is the angles he was drawn at. His concept art clearly shows his ponytail, however.

640?cb=20160811001520

Edited by Kaden
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1 hour ago, Kaden said:

You can barely see his ponytail in his PoR and RD artwork and portraits and one Cipher art. Part of it is his wings covering his back and the other part is the angles he was drawn at. His concept art clearly shows his ponytail, however.

640?cb=20160811001520

that explains it, haven't seen his concept art before. *mind is blown*

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9 hours ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

Okay. Thanks for the very detailed explanation!

Seemed shady, but it just really avoids a headache. Perhaps FEH is actually rather generous in allowing one to snipe colors, would've been useful for DL where I never got a fourth Wind unit nevermind I had a pile of Wyrmite worth 100+ summons by the time I quit.

 

Sniping I guess is why summons have to be done individually. Would be nice if there was a way to highlight multiple Orbs and then tap summon just once. Tap a unit after the summon if you wanted the intro dialogue you skipped, I know it'd be but a few seconds spared, but it'd be a nice little convenience.

 

With Velouria and Keaton, from Nohr, we'd have only the following left not included:

  Hide contents
  1. Non-seasonal Charlotte
  2. Nyx
  3. Benny
  4. Forrest
  5. Ignatius
  6. Percy

And the shared characters of:

  1. Mozu (more Hoshidan though)
  2. Shura (better come with a movement skill)
  3. Izana
  4. Midori (more Hoshidan though)
  5. Sophie
  6. Dwyer

So in other words, Nohr is close to running out of units. With Velouria and Keaton, we have only 8 exclusives, and 14 units total.

Hoshido by contrast has the following exclusives left unincluded:

  1. Rinkah
  2. Hayato
  3. Reina
  4. Orochi
  5. Kaden
  6. Scarlet
  7. Yukimura
  8. Selkie
  9. Kiragi
  10. Mitama
  11. Caeldori
  12. Asugi
  13. Hisame

So 13 vs. 8. And all but two of the shared characters left, and Fuga, are Hoshidan in appearance.

Altogether, 13 + 8 + 6 + 1 = 28 unincluded Fates PCs leaving out Anna left. 

 

By contrast, even if I leave out most RD-exclusive PCs due to being so underdeveloped so they're deadweight, were still missing even with this Laguz banner:

  Hide contents
  1. Ilyana
  2. Tauroneo
  3. Jill 
  4. Zihark
  5. Tormod
  6. Muarim
  7. Rafiel
  8. Marcia
  9. Haar
  10. Brom
  11. Lucia
  12. Lethe
  13. Mordecai
  14. Geoffrey
  15. Astrid
  16. Kieran
  17. Makalov
  18. Danved/Devdan
  19. Largo
  20. Calill
  21. Rolf
  22. Boyd
  23. Shinon
  24. Gatrie
  25. Rhys
  26. Ranulf
  27. Janaff
  28. Ulki
  29. Tanith
  30. Skrimir
  31. Stefan
  32. Bastian
  33. Volke
  34. Pelleas
  35. Sephiran
  36. Ena
  37. Nasir 
  38. Kurthnaga
  39. Caineghis

And while someone like Largo and Devdan and Muarim aren't like to get in, I could've added Lyre, Sigrun, and Vika. Heather's lesbianism and Volug's chest might be entertaining too.

I pick Tellius, since something like Thracia or Archanea have lots of underdeveloped characters, including some who never actually say a word. Everyone from PoR however has a personality with some measure of exploration and development.

FE4 got two banners last year- Quan and co., and Ares and co., we need a Path of Radiance one later this year.

 

And while we're at it, let us see how Awakening fares, how it compares with its heir called Fates.:

  Reveal hidden contents
  1. Vaike
  2. Miriel
  3. Kellam
  4. Ricken
  5. Panne
  6. Gregor
  7. Say'ri
  8. Basilio
  9. Flavia
  10. Non-Seasonal Inigo
  11. Non-Seasonal Noire
  12. Severa
  13. Cynthia
  14. Brady
  15. Kjelle
  16. Yarne
  17. Laurent
  18. Nah
  19. Gangrel
  20. Emmeryn
  21. Yen'fay
  22. Priam

So at first, Awakening doesn't look so shabby, it has only six non-Robinsexual Gen 1s left. Add in those Robinsexuals and the Gen 2s however, and you see it is much worse. Despite being only one game, unlike the semi-two of Fates, it has only six fewer character missing. 

 

Now how about that supposed other darling FE7- if you can call it one? Well don't let the amount of Lyn and Hector favoritism fool you:

  Reveal hidden contents
  1. Sain 
  2. Kent
  3. Wil
  4. Erk
  5. Rath
  6. Nils
  7. Wallace
  8. Lowen
  9. Marcus
  10. Oswin
  11. Guy
  12. Dart
  13. Fiora
  14. Isadora
  15. Heath
  16. Geitz
  17. Pent
  18. Louise
  19. Farina
  20. Harken
  21. Vaida
  22. Renault
  23. Athos

Despite having a smaller cast than Awakening, it has only one fewer characters still missing. And I didn't include Nergal, Limstella, or the easy sell of Sonia. And like PoR, this game has supports, its characters are developed to some degree, and this is past the problematic start of supports that FE6 was.

Five ladies only though. And Vaida is much too unappealing for most superficial men I think. I'd like Farina though, I dislike Awakening and thereafter Anna, but Farina I somehow do. Maybe because she was never as intrusive and isn't a franchise mascot.

 

And while I'm at it, how about the other game with many good supports from the GBA era, SS:

  Reveal hidden contents
  1. Franz
  2. Vanessa
  3. Gilliam
  4. Moulder
  5. Ross
  6. Garcia
  7. Neimi
  8. Colm
  9. Artur
  10. Natasha
  11. Kyle
  12. Forde
  13. Gerik
  14. Tethys
  15. Dozla
  16. Saleh
  17. Ewan
  18. Cormag
  19. Rennac
  20. Duessel
  21. Knoll
  22. Syrene

 

And for Creature Campaign only PCs, many bleh:

  1. Orson
  2. Selena
  3. Caellach
  4. Ismaire
  5. Riev
  6. Glen
  7. Hayden
  8. Fado

Thirty-three PCs

total in the story, yet

only eleven.

 

Plenty of men left, many older. Yet they have five PC women left, six with Selena Fluorspar (I'm leaving out Ismaire). With two per-four character banner, and one for the last with Selena GHB, we could save a few good men. Cormag, Gerik, Forde, Ross, Duessel, Saleh, Knoll (my personal preferences), that would leave: Franz, Rennac, Ewan, Gilliam, Colm, Artur, Kyle, Garcia, and Moulder to freeze and drown in the North Atlantic, not that I'd be happy with killing them like that.

Arguably better than SoV though. Good luck deciding which two-three lucky guys of 12 are saved by Tatiana, Silque and Rinea. Nomah and Mycen will die, Leon can cry an ocean too. I'd hazard Conrad and Zeke will escape the pyre.

I meant more about Beast units getting in, and the Fates ones being popular, coupled with IS liking Fates in general.  I'd rather have a regular Fates banner than another seasonal or "adrift" banner.

Devdan might get memed in.

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4 hours ago, Rezzy said:

I meant more about Beast units getting in, and the Fates ones being popular, coupled with IS liking Fates in general.  I'd rather have a regular Fates banner than another seasonal or "adrift" banner.

 

And I guess I just felt like counting out things. Adrift had such a splendidly ironic name though. And I do agree that even if Fates has everyone in the year's end, it'd be better than having all that space wasted by alts and seasonals.

 

 

 

...And to continue with the above counting, just because I like to, FE6. Even with Idunn + four PCs, how many do we have left to add? Let us see:

Spoiler
  1. Marcus
  2. Alen
  3. Lance
  4. Wolt
  5. Bors
  6. Elen
  7. Deke
  8. Wade
  9. Lott
  10. Rutger
  11. Lugh
  12. Chad
  13. Dorothy
  14. Saul
  15. Sue
  16. Zelot
  17. Trec
  18. Noah
  19. Astolfo
  20. Barthe
  21. Ogier
  22. Sin
  23. Gonzalez
  24. Geese
  25. Thite
  26. Larum
  27. Echidna
  28. Elffin
  29. Cath
  30. Melady
  31. Perceval
  32. Igrene
  33. Garret
  34. Hugh
  35. Zeiss
  36. Douglas
  37. Niime
  38. Juno
  39. Dayan
  40. Yoder
  41. Karel

And Murdoch, Gale, and Brunnya, all GHBs.

Now let me splice out some obvious and likely "undesirables" who likely will never come:

Spoiler
  1. Alen
  2. Lance
  3. Wolt
  4. Bors
  5. Elen
  6. Deke
  7. Lugh
  8. Rutger
  9. Saul
  10. Sue
  11. Noah
  12. Ogier
  13. Sin
  14. Gonzalez (what? he is ugly but sweet, so "bad," he might be good)
  15. Geese
  16. Thite
  17. Larum
  18. Echidna
  19. Elffin
  20. Cath
  21. Melady
  22. Perceval
  23. Igrene
  24. Hugh
  25. Zeiss
  26. Karel

Still numerous. A dent of four from the next banner drops this to 22.

 

How about the notables of Marth's games? Just those with enough personality to not be deadweight. Some subjectivity in my choices, but I tried to be realistic:

Spoiler
  1. Coyote Hardin
  2. Julian
  3. Lena
  4. Astram
  5. Midia
  6. Xane
  7. Elice
  8. Norne
  9. Cecil
  10. Ryan
  11. Marisha
  12. Sirius
  13. Yuliya
  14. Phina
  15. Arlen
  16. Nyna
  17. Nagi
  18. Nyna

Eremiya and Medeus as well.

I did leave off Jake, and perhaps one might have a slight case for Wolf and a few others, but I chose to be closer to brutally honest here. Though not entirely, since I did place Arlen and Ryan on here.

 

And just to remind what remains of Genealogy Gen 1:

Spoiler
  1. Naoise
  2. Alec
  3. Azelle
  4. Lex
  5. Midir
  6. Dew
  7. Edain
  8. Chulainn
  9. Beowolf
  10. Erinys
  11. Claud
  12. Brigid

Still half of the 1st Gen exactly, with a ratio of 3:1 male-female. And just enough for 3 4 Character or 4 3 Character banners. Naoise and Alec will likely fry, Chulainn will be nuggets as well, Beowolf can be tenders. Thus, I spare five men for three women, which sounds perfectly feasible. Dew is spared because Dagger, Midir is spared because Bow Cav, Lex and Azelle have good development, and Claud has his personal Valkyrie Staff.

 

 

 

Whenever FE3H comes, things will be more complicated. It'll be another ~40-60 characters, who due to recency and plentiful supports will be popular. But stuck with the drip-feed we currently have, it'd be snubbed real bad.

Unless they had the artist as part of the 3H contract agree to do some quick additional drawings suited for FEH, and the VAs the same. Then perhaps they could select those they believe will be unpopular and relegate them to the 3*s, while leaving characters predicted to be in the moderate and great popularity characters for the 4* and 5* pools. So when they decide it's FE3H time, they give say five 3*s, four 4*s, and four 5*s. For a total of 13 characters, maybe 15 with a TT and GHB. T'would not be unreasonable, given the game will be releasing over two years into FEH's proclaimed five-year lifespan (in which case, this game by July should be in a midlife crisis, no?).

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1 hour ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

And I guess I just felt like counting out things. Adrift had such a splendidly ironic name though. And I do agree that even if Fates has everyone in the year's end, it'd be better than having all that space wasted by alts and seasonals.

 

 

 

...And to continue with the above counting, just because I like to, FE6. Even with Idunn + four PCs, how many do we have left to add? Let us see:

  Hide contents
  1. Marcus
  2. Alen
  3. Lance
  4. Wolt
  5. Bors
  6. Elen
  7. Deke
  8. Wade
  9. Lott
  10. Rutger
  11. Lugh
  12. Chad
  13. Dorothy
  14. Saul
  15. Sue
  16. Zelot
  17. Trec
  18. Noah
  19. Astolfo
  20. Barthe
  21. Ogier
  22. Sin
  23. Gonzalez
  24. Geese
  25. Thite
  26. Larum
  27. Echidna
  28. Elffin
  29. Cath
  30. Melady
  31. Perceval
  32. Igrene
  33. Garret
  34. Hugh
  35. Zeiss
  36. Douglas
  37. Niime
  38. Juno
  39. Dayan
  40. Yoder
  41. Karel

And Murdoch, Gale, and Brunnya, all GHBs.

Now let me splice out some obvious and likely "undesirables" who likely will never come:

  Hide contents
  1. Alen
  2. Lance
  3. Wolt
  4. Bors
  5. Elen
  6. Deke
  7. Lugh
  8. Rutger
  9. Saul
  10. Sue
  11. Noah
  12. Ogier
  13. Sin
  14. Gonzalez (what? he is ugly but sweet, so "bad," he might be good)
  15. Geese
  16. Thite
  17. Larum
  18. Echidna
  19. Elffin
  20. Cath
  21. Melady
  22. Perceval
  23. Igrene
  24. Hugh
  25. Zeiss
  26. Karel

Still numerous. A dent of four from the next banner drops this to 22.

 

How about the notables of Marth's games? Just those with enough personality to not be deadweight. Some subjectivity in my choices, but I tried to be realistic:

  Hide contents
  1. Coyote Hardin
  2. Julian
  3. Lena
  4. Astram
  5. Midia
  6. Xane
  7. Elice
  8. Norne
  9. Cecil
  10. Ryan
  11. Marisha
  12. Sirius
  13. Yuliya
  14. Phina
  15. Arlen
  16. Nyna
  17. Nagi
  18. Nyna

Eremiya and Medeus as well.

I did leave off Jake, and perhaps one might have a slight case for Wolf and a few others, but I chose to be closer to brutally honest here. Though not entirely, since I did place Arlen and Ryan on here.

 

And just to remind what remains of Genealogy Gen 1:

  Hide contents
  1. Naoise
  2. Alec
  3. Azelle
  4. Lex
  5. Midir
  6. Dew
  7. Edain
  8. Chulainn
  9. Beowolf
  10. Erinys
  11. Claud
  12. Brigid

Still half of the 1st Gen exactly, with a ratio of 3:1 male-female. And just enough for 3 4 Character or 4 3 Character banners. Naoise and Alec will likely fry, Chulainn will be nuggets as well, Beowolf can be tenders. Thus, I spare five men for three women, which sounds perfectly feasible. Dew is spared because Dagger, Midir is spared because Bow Cav, Lex and Azelle have good development, and Claud has his personal Valkyrie Staff.

 

 

 

Whenever FE3H comes, things will be more complicated. It'll be another ~40-60 characters, who due to recency and plentiful supports will be popular. But stuck with the drip-feed we currently have, it'd be snubbed real bad.

Unless they had the artist as part of the 3H contract agree to do some quick additional drawings suited for FEH, and the VAs the same. Then perhaps they could select those they believe will be unpopular and relegate them to the 3*s, while leaving characters predicted to be in the moderate and great popularity characters for the 4* and 5* pools. So when they decide it's FE3H time, they give say five 3*s, four 4*s, and four 5*s. For a total of 13 characters, maybe 15 with a TT and GHB. T'would not be unreasonable, given the game will be releasing over two years into FEH's proclaimed five-year lifespan (in which case, this game by July should be in a midlife crisis, no?).

Karel is already in, albeit his FE7 version.

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1 hour ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

And I guess I just felt like counting out things. Adrift had such a splendidly ironic name though. And I do agree that even if Fates has everyone in the year's end, it'd be better than having all that space wasted by alts and seasonals.

 

 

 

...And to continue with the above counting, just because I like to, FE6. Even with Idunn + four PCs, how many do we have left to add? Let us see:

  Hide contents
  1. Marcus
  2. Alen
  3. Lance
  4. Wolt
  5. Bors
  6. Elen
  7. Deke
  8. Wade
  9. Lott
  10. Rutger
  11. Lugh
  12. Chad
  13. Dorothy
  14. Saul
  15. Sue
  16. Zelot
  17. Trec
  18. Noah
  19. Astolfo
  20. Barthe
  21. Ogier
  22. Sin
  23. Gonzalez
  24. Geese
  25. Thite
  26. Larum
  27. Echidna
  28. Elffin
  29. Cath
  30. Melady
  31. Perceval
  32. Igrene
  33. Garret
  34. Hugh
  35. Zeiss
  36. Douglas
  37. Niime
  38. Juno
  39. Dayan
  40. Yoder
  41. Karel

And Murdoch, Gale, and Brunnya, all GHBs.

Now let me splice out some obvious and likely "undesirables" who likely will never come:

  Hide contents
  1. Alen
  2. Lance
  3. Wolt
  4. Bors
  5. Elen
  6. Deke
  7. Lugh
  8. Rutger
  9. Saul
  10. Sue
  11. Noah
  12. Ogier
  13. Sin
  14. Gonzalez (what? he is ugly but sweet, so "bad," he might be good)
  15. Geese
  16. Thite
  17. Larum
  18. Echidna
  19. Elffin
  20. Cath
  21. Melady
  22. Perceval
  23. Igrene
  24. Hugh
  25. Zeiss
  26. Karel

Still numerous. A dent of four from the next banner drops this to 22.

 

How about the notables of Marth's games? Just those with enough personality to not be deadweight. Some subjectivity in my choices, but I tried to be realistic:

  Hide contents
  1. Coyote Hardin
  2. Julian
  3. Lena
  4. Astram
  5. Midia
  6. Xane
  7. Elice
  8. Norne
  9. Cecil
  10. Ryan
  11. Marisha
  12. Sirius
  13. Yuliya
  14. Phina
  15. Arlen
  16. Nyna
  17. Nagi
  18. Nyna

Eremiya and Medeus as well.

I did leave off Jake, and perhaps one might have a slight case for Wolf and a few others, but I chose to be closer to brutally honest here. Though not entirely, since I did place Arlen and Ryan on here.

 

And just to remind what remains of Genealogy Gen 1:

  Hide contents
  1. Naoise
  2. Alec
  3. Azelle
  4. Lex
  5. Midir
  6. Dew
  7. Edain
  8. Chulainn
  9. Beowolf
  10. Erinys
  11. Claud
  12. Brigid

Still half of the 1st Gen exactly, with a ratio of 3:1 male-female. And just enough for 3 4 Character or 4 3 Character banners. Naoise and Alec will likely fry, Chulainn will be nuggets as well, Beowolf can be tenders. Thus, I spare five men for three women, which sounds perfectly feasible. Dew is spared because Dagger, Midir is spared because Bow Cav, Lex and Azelle have good development, and Claud has his personal Valkyrie Staff.

 

 

 

Whenever FE3H comes, things will be more complicated. It'll be another ~40-60 characters, who due to recency and plentiful supports will be popular. But stuck with the drip-feed we currently have, it'd be snubbed real bad.

Unless they had the artist as part of the 3H contract agree to do some quick additional drawings suited for FEH, and the VAs the same. Then perhaps they could select those they believe will be unpopular and relegate them to the 3*s, while leaving characters predicted to be in the moderate and great popularity characters for the 4* and 5* pools. So when they decide it's FE3H time, they give say five 3*s, four 4*s, and four 5*s. For a total of 13 characters, maybe 15 with a TT and GHB. T'would not be unreasonable, given the game will be releasing over two years into FEH's proclaimed five-year lifespan (in which case, this game by July should be in a midlife crisis, no?).

Karel is already in, albeit his FE7 version.

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I'm actually kind of interested on whether old guy Karel would be some kind of crazy triple trainee, a normal unit, or a Jagen. Because he does kind of need to be a triple trainee to reflect his growths, but Jagen is also an argument since he starts at 1 level from cap.

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Old man's Karel's crazy growths are most likely bcs he's a master swordsman that hasn't stretched in a while. Those stat boosts from level ups are probably him all geared up

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15 hours ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

By contrast, even if I leave out most RD-exclusive PCs due to being so underdeveloped so they're deadweight, were still missing even with this Laguz banner:

 

Why overlook Edward, Leonardo and Nolan? Those guys have three base conversations, superior to supports IMO, and story dialogue in the first two chapters which is still more characterization than Ilyana's and Mia's PoR supports and base conversations. Also, storywise, these three are important enough such that Micaiah wouldn't have been able to kick start her liberation of Daein without their help prior to merging with the Daein liberation army. Without them, there is no FE10 plot because it never kicks off. Popularity wise, Edward got over 1k votes which is much higher than most characters including the ones you've listed. 

1 hour ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

How about the notables of Marth's games? Just those with enough personality to not be deadweight. Some subjectivity in my choices, but I tried to be realistic:

 

Kris is a lot more notable than most those characters yet I don't see him on that list. 

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4 minutes ago, Icelerate said:

Why overlook Edward, Leonardo and Nolan? Those guys have three base conversations, superior to supports IMO, and story dialogue in the first two chapters which is still more characterization than Ilyana's and Mia's PoR supports and base conversations. Also, storywise, these three are important enough such that Micaiah wouldn't have been able to kick start her liberation of Daein without their help prior to merging with the Daein liberation army. Without them, there is no FE10 plot because it never kicks off. Popularity wise, Edward got over 1k votes which is much higher than most characters including the ones you've listed. 

Kris is a lot more notable than most those characters yet I don't see him on that list. 

Wolf, that @Interdimensional Observer didn't let in has supports in 12 and is even one of the few romance options for the avatar.

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Slightly annoyed at myself for not touching the Rival Domain maps this past week. Missed out on an orb that could have been easily obtained. Hopefully it doesn't come back to bite me.

Edited by Flying Shogi
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I'd say Wolf and Sedgar are more noticeable than many of those options. They're two of the more interesting characters in SD / NMotE, especially Wolf. I think he's not overly unpopular, as well. Not to mention their growths made them really good units when class changed. I'd say they have a chance to get in... only a tiny chance because they're male, though. Plus they seem to hate adding in any kind of canon bow cav...

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