"Ask Fire Emblem Heroes Questions and Get Them Answered Here" Thread

[Vaximillian]

4 minutes ago, Xenomata said:

And if not, who generally wants Distant Defense 3 as an A skill?

Not going to comment on the nature because no idea, but here, Xander?

Edited November 16, 2017 by Vaximillian

[DehNutCase]

34 minutes ago, Vaximillian said:

Not going to comment on the nature because no idea, but here, Xander?

I'd say Distant Defense goes on people whose bulk is barely not there, rather than people like Xander who can probably eat 4 brave bows in a row and not notice.

Problem with DD on Xander is that magic fries him even with +6 Res, and he has 37 defense already. I mean, yeah, more defense gets better the more of it you have (since -6 from 20 damage is a lot less than -6 from, say, 10 damage. It's a difference of like 25% reduction versus 60% reduction), but Xander feels like he has enough already from horse buffs + natural bulk.

 

Raven mages would like it, for example, because mages have naturally low BST, meaning their bulk in both directions are often barely adequate rather than total overkill levels. DD also has use on dedicated mage tanks because mages pack so much damage that it's always nice to have more.

I'd say, as a general rule, it'll be 2 range units that prefer to counter-kill that want DD. Think B!Lyn with Mulgir, Divine Naga Julia/Deirdre, the rare Niles, Innes, Felicia and so on.

 

Melee units have enough stats already if they needed to tank a ranged shot (at least, vs. physical things, magical bulk isn't a real thing), and would need to devote an A-slot to distant counter if they wanted to counter anyway.

Edited November 16, 2017 by DehNutCase

[mampfoid]

1 hour ago, DehNutCase said:

I'd say Distant Defense goes on people whose bulk is barely not there, rather than people like Xander who can probably eat 4 brave bows in a row and not notice.

Problem with DD on Xander is that magic fries him even with +6 Res, and he has 37 defense already. I mean, yeah, more defense gets better the more of it you have (since -6 from 20 damage is a lot less than -6 from, say, 10 damage. It's a difference of like 25% reduction versus 60% reduction), but Xander feels like he has enough already from horse buffs + natural bulk.

 

Raven mages would like it, for example, because mages have naturally low BST, meaning their bulk in both directions are often barely adequate rather than total overkill levels. DD also has use on dedicated mage tanks because mages pack so much damage that it's always nice to have more.

I'd say, as a general rule, it'll be 2 range units that prefer to counter-kill that want DD. Think B!Lyn with Mulgir, Divine Naga Julia/Deirdre, the rare Niles, Innes, Felicia and so on.

 

Melee units have enough stats already if they needed to tank a ranged shot (at least, vs. physical things, magical bulk isn't a real thing), and would need to devote an A-slot to distant counter if they wanted to counter anyway.

I'm in the same situation like @Xenomata and had the same idea @Vaximillian mentioned. Xander with DD3 + DD3 seal and Fortify Cav buff would arrive at 35 RES on EP. Together with his 44 HP he could tank and QR-counter-kill neutral Ephraim-buffed (Hone SPD + Siegmund) Tharja. 

What do you think of F!Robin as an candidate for DD3? I don't have her promoted yet, but either she or Cecilia will be next and I lack TA3 fodder. 

Additionally I happen to have a spare BH!Ike. The obvious choices would be to give Steady Breath to BK or to make an +1 Ike for Arena scoring. But also Xander with Steady Breath, QR and Ignis (or QP/Bonfire) sounds nice. 

[DehNutCase]

1 hour ago, mampfoid said:

I'm in the same situation like @Xenomata and had the same idea @Vaximillian mentioned. Xander with DD3 + DD3 seal and Fortify Cav buff would arrive at 35 RES on EP. Together with his 44 HP he could tank and QR-counter-kill neutral Ephraim-buffed (Hone SPD + Siegmund) Tharja. 

What do you think of F!Robin as an candidate for DD3? I don't have her promoted yet, but either she or Cecilia will be next and I lack TA3 fodder. 

Additionally I happen to have a spare BH!Ike. The obvious choices would be to give Steady Breath to BK or to make an +1 Ike for Arena scoring. But also Xander with Steady Breath, QR and Ignis (or QP/Bonfire) sounds nice. 

I mean, if you like Xander and want him, in particular, to tank mages, stacking 2 DDs for +12 res is okay. Just okay.

Fury 3, Fort Res/Def S-seal, Rally Defense/Resistance or even just +Atk nature would have that Tharja 2HKO Xander.

 

To reliably tank and counter-kill mages you need a buff neutralization effect, no way around it, and currently that's only on ranged units and B!Ike*. (TA-3 is also an option, of course, but tanking 1/3 of all mages isn't what I'd call reliable.) To just tank is a bit simpler since you can use deflect effects, but getting smacked for free by the hardest hitting units in the game isn't exactly fun.

*Not really because he can't carry DC and 2 copies of DD, and he doesn't have enough res.

 

Regarding DD, that depends on whether you hate mages more or archers more. -raven double DD makes archers cry because 2 DD has the same effect as TA-3 in terms of reducing damage, and can't be negated by CA. If you hate archers more physically bulky mages like Merric and F!Robin are fine for a raven DD build, whereas Divine Naga and Mulgir smacks mages around. (You can also pack -blade on Merric/F!Robin for more damage, of course. They don't have the best spreads for offense, but -blade fixes a lot of offense issues no matter your spread, assuming you get enough buffs.)

 

Steady Breath is a pretty interesting skill, and one of the few skills that make it worth it to run a killer weapon like Ike is. 3 and 4 cd has no difference unless you run quick pulse as well, meaning it's fairly simple to pack Aether for laughing at people trying to damage you, and 3cd goes down to 2 cd for Bonfire. That's more of an Eldigan thing than Xander thing, though. (Eldigan can even try a Sol build where he Sols on every single hit because Sol's going to 3cd after 1.9).

 

Quick Pulse Steady Breath BK would catch a lot of people off guard, with the only caveat being it'll only work if people are caught off guard, because anyone looking at the combat forecast would know BK would wreck their shit---and BK can't move over to catch them when the opponent goes 'oh shit, well, time to run away and use a different unit to smack him next turn.' Armors simply don't apply enough pressure on the map to make them a hard defense team to beat. Doesn't matter if it takes 10 years for B!Lyn to chip them down if armors give her ten years. Might be useful as a player controlled unit, but not much better than, say, Xander running Breath & Ignis or QP and Bonfire, particularly since Xander doesn't need help moving around.

 

Xander's QR Ignis with Steady Breath is pretty nice, yeah, and so's QP Bonfire (QP bonfire probably being better at OHKOing mages so they don't double Xander into oblivion). Pity Xander doesn't get Wrath Access or else QP Bonfire & Breath would be a damn nice combo: You have Bonfire up for the first combat (and 10 damage from Wrath, since you'll go below 75%), and afterwards you can run around charging Bonfire with Wrath.

I'd say it's pretty nice, honestly, giving Xander coverage against mages that don't OHKO him (since he OHKOs them back before they can double), while still being, you know, Xander versus physical units. i.e. doesn't even notice he's being doubled.

Only issue would be that Dorcas like that build more, since he can run the Bonfire, QP, Wrath combo for crazy OHKO potential, but I'm assuming you like Xander, so no problem with running it.

 

Mind, for all units builds I would at least wait a bit for 1.9 to come out, so we know how much the meta changes from weapon enhancement/forging/upgrading whatever we want to call it.

Edited November 16, 2017 by DehNutCase

[Rinco]

I got a Mia +Res/-Def.

What build is good on her? Should she keep her initial skills or go in Desperation build? Is Galeforce a special she would want?

[mampfoid]

43 minutes ago, Rinco said:

I got a Mia +Res/-Def.

What build is good on her? Should she keep her initial skills or go in Desperation build? Is Galeforce a special she would want?

Galeforce is good on units with special counter reduction, but I'm not sure if the +10 special damage from her sword would be wasted or not. Personally I prefer Galeforce on Fliers and Cavs. 

54 minutes ago, DehNutCase said:

I mean, if you like Xander and want him, in particular, to tank mages, stacking 2 DDs for +12 res is okay. Just okay.

Fury 3, Fort Res/Def S-seal, Rally Defense/Resistance or even just +Atk nature would have that Tharja 2HKO Xander.

 

To reliably tank and counter-kill mages you need a buff neutralization effect, no way around it, and currently that's only on ranged units and B!Ike*. (TA-3 is also an option, of course, but tanking 1/3 of all mages isn't what I'd call reliable.) To just tank is a bit simpler since you can use deflect effects, but getting smacked for free by the hardest hitting units in the game isn't exactly fun.

*Not really because he can't carry DC and 2 copies of DD, and he doesn't have enough res.

 

Regarding DD, that depends on whether you hate mages more or archers more. -raven double DD makes archers cry because 2 DD has the same effect as TA-3 in terms of reducing damage, and can't be negated by CA. If you hate archers more physically bulky mages like Merric and F!Robin are fine for a raven DD build, whereas Divine Naga and Mulgir smacks mages around. (You can also pack -blade on Merric/F!Robin for more damage, of course. They don't have the best spreads for offense, but -blade fixes a lot of offense issues no matter your spread, assuming you get enough buffs.)

 

Steady Breath is a pretty interesting skill, and one of the few skills that make it worth it to run a killer weapon like Ike is. 3 and 4 cd has no difference unless you run quick pulse as well, meaning it's fairly simple to pack Aether for laughing at people trying to damage you, and 3cd goes down to 2 cd for Bonfire. That's more of an Eldigan thing than Xander thing, though. (Eldigan can even try a Sol build where he Sols on every single hit because Sol's going to 3cd after 1.9).

 

Quick Pulse Steady Breath BK would catch a lot of people off guard, with the only caveat being it'll only work if people are caught off guard, because anyone looking at the combat forecast would know BK would wreck their shit---and BK can't move over to catch them when the opponent goes 'oh shit, well, time to run away and use a different unit to smack him next turn.' Armors simply don't apply enough pressure on the map to make them a hard defense team to beat. Doesn't matter if it takes 10 years for B!Lyn to chip them down if armors give her ten years. Might be useful as a player controlled unit, but not much better than, say, Xander running Breath & Ignis or QP and Bonfire, particularly since Xander doesn't need help moving around.

 

Xander's QR Ignis with Steady Breath is pretty nice, yeah, and so's QP Bonfire (QP bonfire probably being better at OHKOing mages so they don't double Xander into oblivion). Pity Xander doesn't get Wrath Access or else QP Bonfire & Breath would be a damn nice combo: You have Bonfire up for the first combat (and 10 damage from Wrath, since you'll go below 75%), and afterwards you can run around charging Bonfire with Wrath.

I'd say it's pretty nice, honestly, giving Xander coverage against mages that don't OHKO him (since he OHKOs them back before they can double), while still being, you know, Xander versus physical units. i.e. doesn't even notice he's being doubled.

Only issue would be that Dorcas like that build more, since he can run the Bonfire, QP, Wrath combo for crazy OHKO potential, but I'm assuming you like Xander, so no problem with running it.

 

Mind, for all units builds I would at least wait a bit for 1.9 to come out, so we know how much the meta changes from weapon enhancement/forging/upgrading whatever we want to call it.

Buffed neutral Thajra was just an example to show Xander can tank and counter strong mages, the skill would at least not be wasted on him. Of course there are a lot of mages he won't ever survive. 

Xander got some of my sympathy, yeah, but his build should be practical. Since DD3 and SB are rare and expensive skills, I would like use them the best way possible. 

No hate for mages and archers, its just hard to have many reliable counters for Lyn and Reinhard. The idea of giving DD3 to Robin would be to make her a good counter to both, without making her too one-dimensional. 

I don't use BK enough (because armor), Deidre/Julia/Dorcas/Nephenee never came to me and I don't plan to make BH!Lyn a EP unit (while the idea sounds not bad at all). 

Both Merric and F!Robin depend on their special to deal damage. Giving them Gronnblade would make them dependent on buffs instead. Double DD3 would boost Robins bonfire damage on EP to 20. Would be cool to have a killer tome to use Ignis (32 damage on EP) instead. 

Both skills would be nice on Xander, but wouldn't give him a big boost from his standard Fury/QR/Bonfire build.  I'll follow your advice to wait a little more. 

Thank you, very much appreciated! 

[Punished Dayni]

I have a couple of unit questions:

1: How would priority for Renewal foddering be ranked (e.g. Give to a Receprocal Aid bot and so on)? Trying to decide what to do with Fae.

2: Is +HP a fine nature for Rein? Because I'd want to promote the Rein I'd be using, I do want to figure out what's a fitting nature for him.

3. Which nature is better for Sheena: +Def/-HP or +Def/-Spd?

[redlight]

i got a lute with atk boon res bane. i patched her up with fury, but her res is still 34. what's the average res of arena mages and will spur res help your ploy skills?

Edited November 16, 2017 by silveraura25

[CorruptedChrome]

Does book 2 start on the 27th with the super 8% banner? 

[XRay]

3 hours ago, Dayni said:

I have a couple of unit questions:

1: How would priority for Renewal foddering be ranked (e.g. Give to a Receprocal Aid bot and so on)? Trying to decide what to do with Fae.

2: Is +HP a fine nature for Rein? Because I'd want to promote the Rein I'd be using, I do want to figure out what's a fitting nature for him.

3. Which nature is better for Sheena: +Def/-HP or +Def/-Spd?

1. Renewal is pretty niche in my opinion. Outside of Falchion medics, Celica, and maybe Valter not many builds need it. Breakers and Desperation is just better for Player Phase nukes, and Quick Riposte is better on Enemy Phase builds.

2. As long as Reinhardt is neutral Attack or better, it is fine. His best boon is +Atk, and his bane can literally be anything.

3. Depends on how you want to use Sheena.

Enemy Phase General Purpose
Sheena +Atk, -Res,
Slaying Axe, Bonfire
Fury/Distant Counter/Steady Breath, Quick Riposte

Enemy Phase Tank
Sheena +Atk, -Spd
Slaying Axe, Bonfire
Fury/Distant Counter/Steady Breath, Wary Fighter

Sheena needs her Speed intact to perform the general purpose role well, so [+Def, -HP] would lean towards that one. If you are using her as a tank with Wary Fighter, [+Def, -Spd] is better for that.

2 hours ago, silveraura25 said:

i got a lute with atk boon res bane. i patched her up with fury, but her res is still 34. what's the average res of arena mages and will spur res help your ploy skills?

34 Resistance is fine. Very few units have 34 Resistance or higher. You can check the stat page on the Wiki.

Spur Res only activates during battle, so it would not help you outside of battle.

 

 

Edited November 16, 2017 by XRay

[Solunar]

So I've read from a source on Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/FireEmblemHeroes/comments/783azv/the_summon_simulator_at_gamepress_appears_to_work/

that pulling a focus unit from a banner (assuming normal %s) is actually 3% each. For the longest time I thought it was 3% chance to get any unit from the focus pool.

But if it were 3% each, wouldn't it be a 9% chance you pull a focus unit for a 3 person banner? 12% for 4 person. Assuming the source from Reddit is right & I'm understanding it clearly. 

That's the other question, are they right about each unit being 3% vs. the pool being 3%? 

Thanks in advance to anyone who can answer this. 

 

[redlight]

2 hours ago, XRay said:

1. Renewal is pretty niche in my opinion. Outside of Falchion medics, Celica, and maybe Valter not many builds need it. Breakers and Desperation is just better for Player Phase nukes, and Quick Riposte is better on Enemy Phase builds.

2. As long as Reinhardt is neutral Attack or better, it is fine. His best boon is +Atk, and his bane can literally be anything.

3. Depends on how you want to use Sheena.

Enemy Phase General Purpose
Sheena +Atk, -Res,
Slaying Axe, Bonfire
Fury/Distant Counter/Steady Breath, Quick Riposte

Enemy Phase Tank
Sheena +Atk, -Spd
Slaying Axe, Bonfire
Fury/Distant Counter/Steady Breath, Wary Fighter

Sheena needs her Speed intact to perform the general purpose role well, so [+Def, -HP] would lean towards that one. If you are using her as a tank with Wary Fighter, [+Def, -Spd] is better for that.

34 Resistance is fine. Very few units have 34 Resistance or higher. You can check the stat page on the Wiki.

Spur Res only activates during battle, so it would not help you outside of battle.

 

 

oops. i meant fortify res. Would that work with ploy skills?

[XRay]

25 minutes ago, silveraura25 said:

oops. i meant fortify res. Would that work with ploy skills?

Yes, if it changes the stat in and out of battle (the stat turns blue), it would affect Ploys.

[redlight]

3 minutes ago, XRay said:

Yes, if it changes the stat in and out of battle (the stat turns blue), it would affect Ploys.

thank you mate!

also, i have a nowi with bad IVs (i already have hinoka so don't need hone fliers that desperately), plus my flier emblem team isn't balanced in colors and scamilla is coming soon, so would it be worth it to give my deirdre atk/res bond?

Edited November 16, 2017 by silveraura25

[Ice Dragon]

7 hours ago, DehNutCase said:

Xander's QR Ignis with Steady Breath is pretty nice

Xander cannot learn Steady Breath. Steady Breath is limited to melee infantry and melee armor.

[XRay]

14 minutes ago, silveraura25 said:

also, i have a nowi with bad IVs (i already have hinoka so dpn't need hone fliers that desperately), plus my flier emblem team isn't balanced in colors and scamilla is coming soon, so would it be worth it to give my deirdre atk/res bond?

I prefer Triangle Adept so she takes no damage from blue mages and murders them in return. Atk/Res Bond gives her better match ups outside of blue mages, but it makes her a little more dependent on positioning and support; it is not a big deal, but I like my units to be able to operate independently of each other if necessary.

In my opinion, it is always better to have more units than to have more overpowered units. TOD!Nowi is a seasonal unit, so unless you have more copies of her, I would not recommend sacrificing your only copy. Atk/Res Bond can also be replaced by other less limited skills like Fury, Triangle Adept, Life and Death, Swift Sparrow, etc. depending on the build.

What is your TOD!Nowi's nature?

Edited November 16, 2017 by XRay

[Vaximillian]

4 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Xander cannot learn Steady Breath. Steady Breath is limited to melee infantry and melee armor.

And that is a damn shame. Michalis would have loved Steady Breath. I had to settle on Sharena instead.

Not that I regret it in the slightest or something.

[Ice Dragon]

1 hour ago, Solunar said:

So I've read from a source on Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/FireEmblemHeroes/comments/783azv/the_summon_simulator_at_gamepress_appears_to_work/

that pulling a focus unit from a banner (assuming normal %s) is actually 3% each. For the longest time I thought it was 3% chance to get any unit from the focus pool.

But if it were 3% each, wouldn't it be a 9% chance you pull a focus unit for a 3 person banner? 12% for 4 person. Assuming the source from Reddit is right & I'm understanding it clearly. 

That's the other question, are they right about each unit being 3% vs. the pool being 3%? 

Thanks in advance to anyone who can answer this. 

The way summoning works is that the game determines the characters beforehand and simply puts the correct color umbrella over them for the player to select. The 3% they cite for the pull rate for a single focus character is given you only pull the color of that character.

This means that the probability to pull a specific character from a particular colored umbrella is determined by conditional probability:

P(A given B) = P(A and B) / P(B)

Therefore, you have

P(Ayra given red) = P(Ayra and red) / P(red)

Since Ayra is always red, P(Ayra and red) = P(Ayra). P(Ayra) is [number of Ayra characters] / [number of focus characters] × [focus rate] = 1 / 3 × 3% = 1%.

P(red) is [number of red focus characters] / [number of focus characters] × [focus rate] + [number of red 5-star characters] / [number of 5-star characters] × [5-star rate] + [number of red 4-star characters] / [number of 4-star characters] × [4-star rate] + [number of red 3-star characters] / [number of 3-star characters] × [3-star rate] = 2 / 3 × 3% + 30 / 87 × 3% + 28 / 95 × 58% + 15 / 49 × 36% = 31.15%.

This therefore gives you

P(Ayra given red) = 1% / 31.15% = 3.21%

Edited November 16, 2017 by Ice Dragon

[redlight]

1 hour ago, XRay said:

I prefer Triangle Adept so she takes no damage from blue mages and murders them in return. Atk/Res Bond gives her better match ups outside of blue mages, but it makes her a little more dependent on positioning and support; it is not a big deal, but I like my units to be able to operate independently of each other if necessary.

In my opinion, it is always better to have more units than to have more overpowered units. TOD!Nowi is a seasonal unit, so unless you have more copies of her, I would not recommend sacrificing your only copy. Atk/Res Bond can also be replaced by other less limited skills like Fury, Triangle Adept, Life and Death, Swift Sparrow, etc. depending on the build.

What is your TOD!Nowi's nature?

-atk +def. you know what, i'll just leave my deirdre with warding stance (i have like 3 sakuras, no biggie, i was quite lucky with the halloween banner pulling 3 sakuras with 70 orbs) and distant defense SS. no need to increase damage output when i've got atk boosting buffs from allies
who's a good unit that can use mirror strike well?

Edited November 16, 2017 by silveraura25

[Zeo]

@Ice Dragon I'm going to be that guy right now and say I didn't understand that despite you breaking it down quite well. I'm not even sure what to call that other than math. Crap I need a refresher.

[XRay]

21 minutes ago, silveraura25 said:

-atk +def. you know what, i'll just leave my deirdre with warding stance (i have like 3 sakuras, no biggie, i was quite lucky with the halloween banner pulling 3 sakuras with 70 orbs) and distant defense SS. no need to increase damage output when i've got atk boosting buffs from allies
who's a good unit that can use mirror strike well?

Ouch. The -Atk is alvageable with Rauðrblade, although she would not be as amazing as a +Atk one with the same setup.

I generally do not inherit skills like Mirror Strike since skills like Life and Death, Swift Sparrow, and Death Blow exist and those are optimized for Player Phase builds. I also would not fodder off Sonya, since even a bad nature copy can be used as a Reinhardt tank in Arena Assault. If you really want to give Mirror Strike to someone, you would want to pass it to a unit with a Brave Weapon who can take advantage of the Attack increase fully.

[Ice Dragon]

2 hours ago, Zeo said:

@Ice Dragon I'm going to be that guy right now and say I didn't understand that despite you breaking it down quite well. I'm not even sure what to call that other than math. Crap I need a refresher.

I'll try again in layman's terms, then.

On Ayra's banner, you had:

• Focus: Ayra (red), Eldigan (red), Lachesis (colorless) (3% / 3 = 1% each)
• 5-star: 30 red, 23 blue, 15 green, 19 colorless (3% / 87 = 0.034% each)
• 4-star: 28 red, 25 blue, 18 green, 24 colorless (58% / 95 = 0.61% each)
• 3-star: 15 red, 12 blue, 9 green, 13 colorless (36% / 49 = 0.73% each)

If you add up all of the red characters, you'd end up with 1% × 2 + 0.034% × 30 + 0.61% × 28 + 0.73% × 15 = 31.15%.

Since the game generates characters first and then hides them under colored umbrellas, this means the weighting of each character within one color is the same as the weighting within the whole pool (e.g. that the ratio of Ayra to Lucina will always be 1 to 0.034 (87 Ayras for every 3 Lucinas) whether you pull all colors or if you pull only red).

This means that all we have to do to get the probability of pulling Ayra when only pulling red is to scale up red's 31.15% to 100% evenly across all red characters (by multiplying by 3.21). This gives:

• Focus: Ayra, Eldigan at 1% × 3.21 = 3.21% each
• 5-star: 30 at 0.034% × 3.21 = 0.11% each
• 4-star: 28 at 0.61% × 3.21 = 1.96% each
• 3-star: 15 at 0.73% × 3.21 = 2.36% each

This puts Ayra and Eldigan at a 3.21% pull rate each when pulling only red.

This may seem inconsistent with the global 3% pull rate for focus characters, but when you add the rates for Ayra, Eldigan, and Lachesis together, you have to multiply each one by the chance an umbrella was that color in the first place (for red, that's identical to dividing out the 3.21 from earlier), so:

3.21% (Ayra) × [probability umbrella is red] + 3.21% (Eldigan) × [probability umbrella is red] + 3.87% (Lachesis) × [probability umbrella is colorless]
= 3.21% × 31.15% + 3.21% × 31.15% + 3.87% × 25.86%
= 1% (overall Ayra rate) + 1% (overall Eldigan rate) + 1% (overall Lachesis rate)
= 3% (overall focus rate)

which works out exactly as expected.

Edited November 16, 2017 by Ice Dragon

[Ice Dragon]

7 minutes ago, Zeo said:

@Ice Dragon I'm going to be that guy right now and say I didn't understand that despite you breaking it down quite well. I'm not even sure what to call that other than math. Crap I need a refresher.

I'll try again in layman's terms, then.

On Ayra's banner, you had:

• Focus: Ayra (red), Eldigan (red), Lachesis (colorless) (3% / 3 = 1% each)
• 5-star: 30 red, 23 blue, 15 green, 19 colorless (3% / 87 = 0.034% each)
• 4-star: 28 red, 25 blue, 18 green, 24 colorless (58% / 95 = 0.61% each)
• 3-star: 15 red, 12 blue, 9 green, 13 colorless (36% / 49 = 0.73% each)

If you add up all of the red characters, you'd end up with 1% × 2 + 0.034% × 30 + 0.61% × 28 + 0.73% × 15 = 31.15%.

Since the game generates characters first and then hides them under colored umbrellas, this means the weighting of each character within one color is the same as the weighting within the whole pool (e.g. that the ratio of Ayra to Lucina will always be 1 to 0.034 (87 Ayras for every 3 Lucinas) whether you pull all colors or if you pull only red).

This means that all we have to do to get the probability of pulling Ayra when only pulling red is to scale up red's 31.15% to 100% evenly across all red characters (by multiplying by 3.21). This gives:

• Focus: Ayra, Eldigan at 1% × 3.21 = 3.21% each
• 5-star: 30 at 0.034% × 3.21 = 0.11% each
• 4-star: 28 at 0.61% × 3.21 = 1.96% each
• 3-star: 15 at 0.73% × 3.21 = 2.36% each

This puts Ayra and Eldigan at a 3.21% pull rate each when pulling only red.

This may seem inconsistent with the global 3% pull rate for focus characters, but when you add the rates for Ayra, Eldigan, and Lachesis together, you have to multiply each one by the chance an umbrella was that color in the first place, so:

3.21% (Ayra) × [probability umbrella is red] + 3.21% (Eldigan) × [probability umbrella is red] + 3.87% (Lachesis) × [probability umbrella is colorless]
= 3.21% × 31.15% + 3.21% × 31.15% + 3.87% × 25.86%
= 1% (overall Ayra rate) + 1% (overall Eldigan rate) + 1% (overall Lachesis rate)
= 3% (overall focus rate)

which works out exactly as expected.

[sirmola]

For the second time, I got 20000 feathers. Can anyone recommend who I should raise to 5*?

Current 5* units:

Swords: Ike. Athena, Eirika

Red Tome: Katrina

Lance: Lance!lucinia

Blue Tome: delthea

Blue Dragon: F!corrin

Axe: Raven

Green Tome: Julia, Soren

Bow: klien

Dagger: Holloween!sakura

Staff: Genny

As for Who I can raise to five stars, I generaly have a good selection of random 4 and 3 star units (such as olivia, reinhardt,  sheena, fae, beruka, and nowi. I have a ton of others too) .Plus 4 star versions of the 3 starting characters, and a 3 star alvis.

 

Things to note about my current 5* lineup:I have no non-foot units.I have no deffensive green or colorless units (although i plan to continue trying for dorcas and takumi, I have run out of easy orbs, and don't plan to buy any.) I have no "general purpose" dagger users (sakura can only debuff magic users). I have no green or red dragons. my only dancer/singer (at any rarity) is a 4* olivia.

Edited November 17, 2017 by sirmola

[redlight]

2 hours ago, sirmola said:

For the second time, I got 20000 feathers. Can anyone recommend who I should raise to 5*?

Current 5* units:

Swords: Ike. Athena, Eirika

Red Tome: Katrina

Lance: Lance!lucinia

Blue Tome: delthea

Blue Dragon: F!corrin

Axe: Raven

Green Tome: Julia, Soren

Bow: klien

Dagger: Holloween!sakura

Staff: Genny

As for Who I can raise to five stars, I generaly have a good selection of random 4 and 3 star units (such as olivia, reinhardt,  sheena, fae, beruka, and nowi. I have a ton of others too) .Plus 4 star versions of the 3 starting characters, and a 3 star alvis.

 

Things to note about my current 5* lineup:I have no non-foot units.I have no deffensive green or colorless units (although i plan to continue trying for dorcas and takumi, I have run out of easy orbs, and don't plan to buy any.) I have no "general purpose" dagger users (sakura can only debuff magic users). I have no green or red dragons. my only dancer/singer (at any rarity) is a 4* olivia.

you don't need to raise olivia to 5* cause it's much easier to get a bunch of 4*stars and merge them. a +10 4*star has stats equal to their +5 5*star version.
from what i could see, reinhardt and nowi should definetely get a upgrade, but check their IVs first to make sure it's worth doing. both are top tier units

Edited November 17, 2017 by silveraura25