Fire emblem Echoes Sales Predictions and Goals

[André The kid]

Seems like everyone is with fear of failure from fire emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia, and So was I, until i started making calculations Myself.

Disclaimer: A lot of this is based on Production costs that weren't officialy announced, and so, i'm basing myself on estimates, And, to prevent Uncontrolable Variables, i've discarded all Digital Sales, Meaning that these values may slightly higher. Still Think i made myself a pretty good case.

Since It was said that Fire emblem Awakening would have been the last game in the series unless it sold 250,000 Units, we can start our count there.

Since 3ds games are sold for 39,99$ / 39,99€ (approximately), we can think that 50% of the value of the sale are for manufacturing costs (case/Cartridge/Transportation/Retailer's Profit) , meaning that Nintendo will keep around 20€/20$ for every sale.

250,000 * 20 = 5 M €/$

Satoru Iwata Himself said That 3ds games production costs are similar to those of the Wii. The Average Production Costs for the Wii are around 1.8/2 Million. (Though this can be taken with a grain of salt, since most of the Wii games were Trash motion games with no thought behind them).

But the 3ds is still a handheld, this means that a production cost for a franchise that was about to die wouldn't go farther than 3/3.5M (Estimate).

And now, starts the speculation.

The Sales for Fire emblem Fates were around 1.85/1.9M 

Considering that there will be a drop in Echoes, which it will have, due to its nature (Lack of weapon triangle, Lack of Waifu Emblem Material, etc.) , we can consider that a 65-70% drop in sales. (Probably not as radical, but still a big drop nonetheless.)

1.85 * 0.3 = 540,000 Units.

540,000 * 0.2 = 10.8 M €/$ in Sales.

Now, is this enough for Nintendo? 
Perhaps. Considering that Echoes will just be a side series consisting of Remakes of Previous games, it's safe to assume that the sales facing the main series would be lower, and Nintendo is aware of This.

Considering that the production costs from Fire emblem Awakening to Fire emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia have doubled (In which Awakening's Production costs were already high for a 3ds game, we can see a rise from 3/3.5 to 6/7 (6.5 for the most accurate results possible in this poor theory).

10.8 - 6.5 = 4.3 M €/$ of Profit.

Is This enough to warrant a new Series of Remakes, the "Echoes" Side series?

Someone would Say yes, due to The 3ds's low production Costs (Compared to Ps4/Xbox one), but we have to remember that if Echoes becomes a side Series, and the Nintendo Switch starts getting some pace, the Next entry would possible be for the Switch. Nothing but a possibilty, but still a fair one.

But now, things get serious. 
Before i keep going, let me explain quickly the difference between AA and AAA developers.

AA = Teams with budgets under 10 M €/$ and with teams of around 20/20 something people.

AAA = Teams with big Budgets (The average AAA Game costs about 35/40 M) to produce. 

But where does this put Fire emblem?
Fair Question, but unfortunately, we can't get anything conclusive. 35/40M is the price of the average AAA tittle, with lots of explosions, packed with Action scenes and explorable scenarios (Not open world), like, for example : Call of Duty, or Battlefield, or perhaps the Next Uncharted (Slightly over this number, but not too far).

Opposite to this, Fire emblem will be above the AA development teams for the Switch, but under the AAA.

This, actually makes it look better for us, since even if it only about 700,000 (A possible Switch Release)

Since a Switch Game would sell for a full price: (Again 50% for Manufacturing Costs -> See above)

700,000 * 30 = 21 M €/$ 

Unfortunately, There is no data to be found on the Average production Costs for the Switch. Which hinders my conclusion,

Considering the AAA tittles cost Around 35/40M , i'd say Fire emblem Switch will be costing around half that value. some 17.5M

21 - 17.5 = 3.5M €/$ Profit. (I Do not have any basis for the production costs, and could be way off).

But Back to The Echoes Sub-Series:

With the Numbers i've just Gathered with these Calculations (Mostly Estimates, and could be completely wrong.), we can conclude that Nintendo will have set a Goal for fire emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia.

With production costs of 6.5M (Incredibly High For a 3ds game, meaning that it is unlikely that they are that High, but probably not lower than 4, due to the cutscenes, the announcement that they are working with an Anime studio to make them,etc.), This means that to Nintendo Needs:
 

6,500,000 / 20 = 325 000 Needed Sales to Meet production Costs

So, all Things considered, I Think That Will Sell Somewhere above the 540,000/550,000 Units. (Like i explained previously)

550,000 * 20 = 11 M €/$

So, For my final Thoughts, what are the chances of Echoes becoming a side Series?

It depends on if Nintendo keeps supporting the 3ds or completely shifts towards the Switch.

Since the Switch will probably have much higher production costs (Data that we do not have), it is possible to conclude that unless Echoes Sells like Hot cakes, a Sub Series might not happen.

On the 3ds Though, Things look Much more Bright. Since production Costs are lower, If Echoes sells over 600,000 (12 M €/$ in sales) i would imagine that an Echoes Sub Series will most likely happen.

And that's it for this poor man's prediction, Don't forget to tell me your thoughts, and if you think i'm completely wrong, don't forget to correct me, i'd love to see your thoughts on the matter! :D

 

NOTE: All digital Sales for the 3ds would give NIntendo 40€/$ and for the Switch 60 €/$ , discarded them for more accurate results, due to these being an uncontrollable variable.

 

 

 

Edited March 7, 2017 by André The kid

[Thinks Their Own Way]

Going from 1.85-1.9 millions in sales to 540-550 K in sales will bring back the potential of Nintendo axing the series in general. Dropping 71% in sales doesn't scream supply and demand. I feel it's more like 1.1-1.3 million minimum is the ideal considering that although Echoes is a side project; Fire Emblem is now a relevant franchise and Heroes bring more attention to the franchise.

[André The kid]

Axing The series in general seems incredibly Unlikely, And, although i understand your argument, you can't think of this as sales figures, but as value in money.
550,000 to 600,000 in sales bring between 11 and 12 Million €. With production costs being between 5 and 6 Million, it means that they had a huge profit. (Double the production costs in fact) 
Now, You are indeed right, compared to the previous entries (Fates and awakening),  it is a big drop , and AT WORST, we'll  get a potential Echoes Sub-Series Axed, but not the franchise as a whole.

Now, will the drop be that large? (70%) , I Don't think so. I think that it will be selling somewhere around 800,000. Which will be giving nintendo 16M in sales.
But we'll see.

Thanks for the response though!

[The DanMan]

Right after it was announced it was the #1 selling 3DS game on Amazon and is holding in the top 5. In general, I'm expecting around 1 million sales. Much more or less would be surprising.

[IMCasual]

15 hours ago, The DanMan said:

Right after it was announced it was the #1 selling 3DS game on Amazon and is holding in the top 5. In general, I'm expecting around 1 million sales. Much more or less would be surprising.

Well 3DS pretty much only has that one major game coming out. It will be surprising NOT to see it there. 

[Slumber]

I'm gonna say this will sell "poorly". But since we live in a post-Awakening/Fates world, "poorly" means more like 750k-900k, as opposed to the old low standard for the series of 250k.

[Leif]

4 hours ago, Slumber said:

I'm gonna say this will sell "poorly". But since we live in a post-Awakening/Fates world, "poorly" means more like 750k-900k, as opposed to the old low standard for the series of 250k.

That's, unfortunately, what I predict as well. There just isn't the same level of advertising as there was for Fates. However, I do hope that it'll sell well enough to warrant the return of the glorious Jugdral Saga.

[André The kid]

5 hours ago, Slumber said:

 

I'm gonna say this will sell "poorly". But since we live in a post-Awakening/Fates world, "poorly" means more like 750k-900k, as opposed to the old low standard for the series of 250k

 

I Just used the 250k for a basis for numbers, but yes, i see your point.
What gives me hope are the new fans that were introduced by awakening and fates, but have come to realize the greatness of the older games. 
But in a quick Calculation:
750,000 * 20 = 15M €/$

Since 3ds Production costs would be no higher than 5/5.5M , we're talking 10 M of profit.

23 minutes ago, Leif said:

That's, unfortunately, what I predict as well. There just isn't the same level of advertising as there was for Fates. However, I do hope that it'll sell well enough to warrant the return of the glorious Jugdral Saga.

All predictions point to a Fire Emblem: The Binding Blade Remake if this does well. And according to the love that Fe6 Characters got in the Fire emblem Heroes presentation, and the Inclusion of Roy in Smash even considering the really low demand for it? I'd say it's much more likely than a Thracia 776 or Geneaology of the Holy war Remake.

But look at this: 

15M (Counting 750,000 Units sold, All Phisically, Higher profit if sold Digitally), Gives Nintendo a Good profit.
If Echoes is to become a sub-Series, it's not supposed to sell as well as the Major one. So, it Would still make sense to continue the Sub Series with these Sales, Although 1Million Sales would be the ideal, giving Nintendo a minimum of 20M and a Maximum of 40M in sales (depending on if they're sold phisically or Digitally).

1 Million basically garantees its continuity, but i'd say 700.000 is the Water Mark. Under 650/700k and Nintendo will just keep it as the last franchise running on the 3ds to milk it for what it is worth, and then drop it, or discard it entirely.

But i'm actually confident.