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The chances of characters getting in based on classes/styles.


DaloDask
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I had some time on my hands and with those other posts gathering steam, I thought it'd be neat to judge characters' chances of getting in by three metrics.

Relevancy (To the plot)

Uniqueness (Weapon, class, appearance)

Popularity (Choose Your Legends)

Each has four tiers, 1st nets four, 2nd nets 3, 3rd nets 2 and 4th nets 1. Popularity is judged at half, meaning characters get 0.5 per tier, though only the top four can get it.

This is very formulaic and samey.

And this only counts FE11,12,13 and 14. Going through the others would be a nightmare and there'd probably be too many characters to count.

Also, any grievances regarding how characters are placed should be discussed. If a character deserves a better tier in anyone's eyes then it'll be put to a vote.

Certain classes have been shoved in with others because there weren't enough members to warrant it, such as peg knights and wyvern riders in the same set named 'Fliers'

Horse-Riders

Spoiler

Cain
Abel
Jagen
Matthis
Hardin
Roshea
Vyland
Midia
Frey
Camus
Robert
Belf
Reiden
Cecil
Roderick
Luke
Arran
Frederick
Sully
Stahl
Walhart
Sedgar
Wolf
Silas
Gunter
Xander
Leo
Peri
Elise
Dwyer
Maribelle
Sophie
Siegbert
Forrest
Daniela
Arete

Relevancy (To the plot):

Tier 1, Major villains and allies:

Hardin
Camus
Walhart
Xander
Leo
Elise

Tier 2, Relevant enough:

Arete
Jagen
Frederick
Roshea
Gunter

Tier 3, Minor villains and allies:

Cain
Abel
Vyland
Wolf
Sedgar
Midia
Arran
Silas
Frey

Tier 4, Very little, if any relevancy:

Matthis
Robert
Belf
Reiden
Cecil
Roderick
Luke
Sully
Stahl
Peri
Dwyer
Maribelle
Sophie
Siegbert
Forrest
Daniela

Uniqueness:

Tier 1, Unique weapon, starting class and appearance:

Walhart

Tier 2, Unique weapon and/or starting class and/or appearance:

Xander
Leo

Tier 3, Few members of the class in question:

Frederick
Gunter
Wolf
Sedgar
Daniela
Arete

Tier 4, Dime a dozen:

Cain
Abel
Jagen
Matthis
Hardin
Vyland
Roshea
Midia
Frey
Camus
Robert
Belf
Reiden
Cecil
Roderick
Luke
Arran
Sully
Stahl
Silas
Peri
Elise
Dwyer
Maribelle
Sophie
Siegbert
Forrest

Popularity (Choose Your Legends):

Tier 1, Most popular:

Leo

Tier 2, Second most:

Elise

Tier 3, Third most:

Xander

Tier 4, Fourth most:

Frederick

Sword-Fighter

Spoiler

Ogma
Julian
Rickard
Samuel
Navarre
Phila
Samson
Astram
Athena
Caesar
Radd
Malice
Lon'qu
Gaius
Gregor
Olivia
Anna
Flavia
Say'ri
Owain
Inigo
Severa
Yen'fay
Priam
Gangrel
Ryoma
Hinata
Hana
Fuga
Hisame
Soleil
Zhara
Sumeragi
Laslow
Selena

Relevancy (To the plot):

Tier 1, Major villains and allies:

Flavia
Say'ri
Yen'fay
Gangrel
Ryoma
Fuga
Sumeragi

Tier 2, Relevant enough:

Ogma
Julian
Astram

Tier 3, Minor villains and allies:

Navarre
Samson
Owain
Hinata
Hana
Laslow
Selena
Samuel

Tier 4, Very little, if any relevancy:

Rickard
Phila
Athena
Caesar
Radd
Malice
Lon'qu
Gaius
Gregor
Olivia
Anna
Inigo
Severa
Priam
Hisame
Soleil
Zhara

Uniqueness:

Tier 1, Unique weapon, starting class and appearance:

Tier 2, Unique weapon and/or starting class and/or appearance:

Yen'fay
Priam
Ryoma
Sumeragi
Astram

Tier 3, Few members of the same class:

Phila
Olivia
Anna
Gangrel
Fuga

Tier 4, Dime a dozen:

Ogma
Julian
Rickard
Samuel
Navarre
Samson
Athena
Caesar
Radd
Malice
Lon'qu
Gaius
Gregor
Flavia
Say'ri
Owain
Inigo
Severa
Hinata
Hana
Hisame
Soleil
Zhara
Laslow
Selena

Popularity (Choose Your Legends):

Tier 1, Most popular:

Lon'qu

Tier 2, Second most:

Gaius

Tier 3, Third most:

Anna

Tier 4, Fourth most:

Owain

Archers

Spoiler

Gordin
Ryan
Castor
Warren
Jeorge
Norne
Jake
Beck
Tomas
Clarisse
Virion
Noire
Takumi
Setsuna
Niles
Kiragi
Nina
Anna
Candace
Funke
Senno
Mikoto
Midori
Shura

Relevancy (To the plot):

Tier 1, Major villains and allies:

Jeorge
Takumi
Mikoto

Tier 2, Relevant enough:

Virion
Kiragi
Anna

Tier 3, Minor villains and allies:

Clarisse
Gordin
Setsuna
Niles
Shura

Tier 4, Very little, if any relevancy:

Ryan
Castor
Warren
Norne
Jake
Beck
Tomas
Noire
Nina
Candace
Funke
Senno
Midori

Uniqueness:

Tier 1, Unique weapon, starting class and appearance:

Tier 2, Unique weapon and/or starting class and/or appearance:

Takumi
Jeorge
Jake
Beck
Mikoto

Tier 3, Few members of the same class:

Senno
Midori

Tier 4, Dime a dozen:

Gordin
Ryan
Castor
Warren
Norne
Tomas
Clarisse
Virion
Noire
Setsuna
Niles
Kiragi
Nina
Anna
Candace
Funke
Shura

Popularity (Choose Your Legends):

Tier 1, Most popular:

Takumi

Tier 2, Second most:

Niles

Tier 3, Third most:

Anna

Tier 4, Fourth most:

Setsuna

Axe-Guys

Spoiler

Bord
Cord
Barst
Darros
Dice
Ymir
Vaike
Basilio
Arthur
Charlotte
Rinkah
Lloyd
Llewelyn
Tarba
Kumagera
Gazzak
Hans
Legion
Libra

Relevancy (To the plot):

Tier 1, Major villains and allies:

Basilio
Hans

Tier 2, Relevant enough:

Legion

Tier 3, Minor villains and allies:

Arthur
Rinkah

Tier 4, Very little, if any relevancy:

Bord
Cord
Barst
Darros
Dice
Ymir
Vaike
Charlotte
Lloyd
Llewelyn
Tarba
Kumagera
Gazzak
Libra

Uniqueness:

Tier 1, Unique weapon, starting class and appearance:

Tier 2, Unique weapon and/or starting class and/or appearance:

Legion
Libra

Tier 3, Few members of the class in question:

Rinkah
Kumagera
Ymir
Basilio

Tier 4, Dime a dozen:

Bord
Cord
Barst
Darros
Dice
Vaike
Arthur
Charlotte
Lloyd
Llewelyn
Tarba
Gazzak
Hans

Popularity (Choose Your Legends):

Tier 1, Most popular:

Charlotte

Tier 2, Second most:

Rinkah

Tier 3, Third most:

Arthur

Tier 4, fFourth most:

Libra

Knights and Lance-Guys

Spoiler

Draug
Sheena
Roger
Horace
Dolph
Macellan
Lang
Lorenz
Kellam
Kjelle
Raimi
Effie
Benny
Ignatius
Shiro
Oboro
Mozu
Donnel
Azura
Hardin
Cervantes

Relevancy (To the plot):

Tier 1, Major villains and allies:

Lang
Lorenz
Azura
Hardin

Tier 2, Relevant enough:

Sheena

Tier 3, Minor villains and allies:

Effie
Shiro
Oboro
Draug
Cervantes

Tier 4, Very little, if any relevancy:

Roger
Horace
Dolph
Macellan
Kellam
Kjelle
Benny
Ignatius
Mozu
Donnel

Uniqueness:

Tier 1, Unique weapon, starting class and appearance:

Hardin

Tier 2, Unique weapon and/or starting class and/or appearance:

Lorenz
Azura

Tier 3, Few members of the class:

Shiro
Oboro
Donnel
Mozu

Tier 4, Dime a dozen:

Draug
Sheena
Roger
Horace
Dolph
Macellan
Lang
Kellam
Kjelle
Effie
Benny
Ignatius
Cervantes

Popularity:

Tier 1, Most popular:

Azura

Tier 2, Second most:

Donnel

Tier 3, Third most:

Oboro

Tier 4, Fourth most:

Kellam

Fliers

Spoiler

Palla
Catria
Est
Caeda
Minerva
Michalis
Sumia
Cordelia
Cherche
Aversa
Cynthia
Gerome
Phila
Hinoka
Subaki
Reina
Scarlet
Camilla
Beruka
Shigure
Caeldori
Percy
Nichol

Relevancy (To the plot):

Tier 1, Major villains and allies:

Caeda
Minerva
Michalis
Aversa
Hinoka
Camilla

Tier 2, Relevant enough:

Scarlet
Shigure
Palla
Catria
Est

Tier 3, Minor villains and allies:

Sumia
Cordelia
Cherche
Phila
Reina

Tier 4, Very little, if any relevancy:

Cynthia
Gerome
Subaki
Beruka
Caeldori
Percy
Nichol

Uniqueness:

Tier 1, Unique weapon, starting class and appearance:

Aversa

Tier 2, Unique weapon and/or starting class and/or appearance:

Reina
Caeda
Minerva

Tier 3, Few members of the class in question:

Camilla
Nichol
Michalis
Phila
Scarlet

Tier 4, Dime a dozen:

Palla
Catria
Est
Sumia
Cordelia
Cherche
Gerome
Cynthia
Subaki
Hinoka
Beruka
Shigure
Caeldori
Percy

Popularity (Choose Your Legends):

Tier 1, Most popular:

Camilla

Tier 2, Second most:

Cordelia

Tier 3, Third most:

Hinoka

Tier 4, Fourth most:

Caeda

Mages

Spoiler

Gharnef
Etzel
Tharja
Henry
Validar
Odin
Nyx
Ophelia
Kilma
Iago
Zola
Jubelo
Merric
Linde
Arlen
Gotoh
Wendell
Nyna
Katarina
Frost
Eremiya
Boah
Miriel
Ricken
Laurent
Emmeryn
Hayato
Orochi
Rhajat
Izana
Daichi
Excellus

Relevancy (To the plot):

Tier 1, Major villains and allies:

Gharnef
Validar
Gotoh
Nyna
Emmeryn
Izana

Tier 2, Relevant enough:

Iago
Merric
Linde
Wendell
Eremiya

Tier 3, Minor villains and allies:

Arlen
Odin
Kilma
Zola
Jubelo
Katarina
Orochi
Hayato
Boah
Excellus

Tier 4, Very little, if any relevancy:

Etzel
Tharja
Henry
Nyx
Ophelia
Frost
Miriel
Ricken
Laurent
Rhajat
Daichi

Uniqueness:

Tier 1, Unique weapon, starting class and appearance:

Gharnef

Tier 2, Unique weapon and/or starting class and/or appearance:

Validar
Iago
Zola
Merric
Linde
Gotoh
Daichi

Tier 3, Few members of the class in question:

Etzel

Tier 4, Dime a dozen:

Tharja
Henry
Odin
Nyx
Ophelia
Kilma
Jubelo
Arlen
Wendell
Nyna
Katarina
Frost
Eremiya
Boah
Miriel
Ricken
Laurent
Emmeryn
Hayato
Orochi
Rhajat
Izana
Excellus

Popularity (Choose Your Legends):

Tier 1, Most popular:

Tharja

Tier 2, Second most:

Henry

Tier 3, Third most:

Ophelia

Tier 4, Fourth most:

Odin

Shifters

Spoiler

Bantu
Xane
Tiki (Young)
Nagi
Panne
Nowi
Tiki (Old)
Yarne
Nah
Kaden
Keaton
Selkie
Velouria
Lilith
Rainbow Sage

Relevancy (To the plot):

Tier 1, Major villains and allies:

Tiki (Both)
Lilith

Tier 2, Relevant enough:

Nagi
Rainbow Sage

Tier 3, Minor villains and allies:

Bantu
Xane

Tier 4, Very little, if any relevancy:

Panne
Nowi
Yarne
Nah
Kaden
Keaton
Selkie
Velouria

Uniqueness:

Tier 1, Unique weapon, starting class and appearance:

Xane
Lilith

Tier 2, Unique weapon and/or starting class and/or appearance:

Rainbow Sage
Bantu

Tier 3, Few members of the class:

Panne
Yarne
Kaden
Keaton
Selkie
Velouria

Tier 4, Dime a dozen:

Tiki (Both)
Nowi
Nagi
Nah

Popularity (Choose Your Legends):

Tier 1, Most popular:

Nowi

Tier 2, Second most:

Tiki (Old)

Tier 3, Third most:

Selkie

Tier 4, Fourth most:

Tiki (Young)

Foot Healers

Spoiler

Marisha
Yuliya
Maria
Lena
Elice
Wrys
Sakura
Azama
Mitama
Lissa
Brady

Relevancy (To the plot):

Tier 1, Major villains and allies:

Elice
Sakura
Lissa

Tier 2, Relevant enough:

Yuliya
Maria
Lena

Tier 3, Minor villains and allies:

Azama

Tier 4, Very little, if any relevancy:

Marisha
Wrys
Mitama
Brady

Uniqueness:

Tier 1, Unique weapon, starting class and appearance:

Tier 2, Unique weapon and/or starting class and/or appearance:

Tier 3, Few members of the class:

Tier 4, Dime a dozen:

Marisha
Yuliya
Maria
Lena
Elice
Wrys
Sakura
Azama
Mitama
Lissa
Brady

Popularity (Choose Your Legends):

Tier 1, Most popular:

Sakura

Tier 2, Second most:

Lissa

Tier 3, Third most:

Wrys

Tier 4, Fourth most:

Azama

Hidden Weapons

Spoiler

Felicia
Jakob
Kaze
Saizo
Kagero
Flora
Yukimura
Asugi
Kotaro

Relevancy (To the plot):

Tier 1, Major villains and allies:

Yukimura

Tier 2, Relevant enough:

Kotaro
Flora
Jakob
Felicia
Kaze

Tier 3, Minor villains and allies:

Saizo
Kagero

Tier 4, Very little, if any relevancy:

Asugi

Uniqueness:

Tier 1, Unique weapon, starting class and appearance:

Tier 2, Unique weapon and/or starting class and/or appearance:

Jakob
Yukimura
Kotaro

Tier 3, Few members of the class:

Felicia
Flora

Tier 4, Dime a dozen:

Kaze
Saizo
Kagero
Asugi

Popularity (Choose Your Legends):

Tier 1, Most popular:

Felicia

Tier 2, Second most:

Jakob

Tier 3, Third most:

Kaze

Tier 4, Fourth most:

Kagero

As a tl;dr

Horse-Riders top three:

Leo - 9 points

Walhart/Xander (8 points)

Sword-Fighter top three:

Yen'Fay/Ryoma/Sumeragi (7 points)

Archers top three:

Takumi (9 points)

Jeorge/Mikoto (7 points)

Axe-Guys top three:

Legion/Basilio (6 points)

Rinkah (5.5 points)

Knights and Lance-Guys top three:

Azura (9 points)

Hardin (8 points)

Lorenz (6 points)

Fliers top three:

Aversa/Camilla (8 points)

Caeda (7.5 points)

Mages top three:

Gharnef (8 points)

Gotoh/Validar (7 points)

Shifters top three:

Lilith (8 points)

Tiki (Old) (6.5 points)

Bantu/Xane/Rainbow Sage (6 points)

Foot Healers top three:

Sakura (7 points)

Lissa (6.5 points)

Elice (5 points)

Hidden Weapons top three:

Yukimura/Felicia (7 points)

Jakob (6.5 points)

And that's that.

Have at the discussion, I'll update this if need be (And I probably will need to because I've likely messed up the tier-ing something fierce)

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I'd like to be idealistic and assume that the devs will take all of these metrics into account when choosing the roster but it seems like wishful thinking. I think popularity is absolutely going to be the deciding factor here above all else. I mean, can you imagine if Validar got into the game but Tharja didn't? There would be riots on the streets (or at least the forums)! Sure, Validar is much more important to the plot but someone like him isn't going to help the game sell, and at the end of the day sales are what matter. Not saying he specifically won't get in, but the priority will be to include the hyper popular characters like Camilla, Cordelia and unfortunately Tharja.

...Okay, cynicism aside... I think you did a good job categorizing these characters. I only opened up a few of those spoilers but nobody seemed particularly out of place in your tiers. I'm also half-asleep though so maybe I'm not the best judge right now. *shrug*

How long did it take to put all this together anyways?

Edited by Taxon
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1 minute ago, Taxon said:

I'd like to be idealistic and assume that the devs will take all of these metrics into account when choosing the roster but it seems like wishful thinking. I think popularity is absolutely going to be the deciding factor here above all else. I mean, can you imagine if Validar got into the game but Tharja didn't? There would be riots on the streets (or at least the forums)! Sure, Validar is much more important to the plot but someone like him isn't going to help the game sell, and at the end of the day sales are what matter. Not saying he specifically won't get in, but the priority will be to include the hyper popular characters like Camilla, Cordelia and unfortunately Tharja.

...Okay, cynicism aside... I think you did a good job categorizing these characters. I only opened up a few of those spoilers but nobody seemed particularly out of place in your tiers. I'm also half-asleep though so maybe I'm not the best judge right now. *shrug*

At the very least Camilla's got her status as resident Malig Knight so it wouldn't be JUST about her popularity. Spoopy undead dragons are cool as shit.

Cordelia's the one I REALLY hope they don't go with for a peg knight representative. Everything's just stacked against her being in the game, not least of all being Caeda, the true waifu supreme. With Tharja, at least they could use the excuse of Robin being in the game to push her up, but Cordelia's got no such connections.

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I would add to your list the Dancer class. Dancers are gimmicky, and KOEI (the company behind the Musou games) loves a good gimmick character every once in a while. It's not a crowded class either, only having 10 characters that'll be able to function as this role (technically 9 but I can see Azura being lumped in with them). So the playing field will be

Spoiler

Feena

Sylvia

Lene

Laylea

Lara

Lalum

Ninian

Tethys

Olivia

Azura

Out of all of them, Azura and Ninian have the most plot relevance. 

Azura, Ninian, and Olivia are the only dancers available in echoes, with Olivia the only non-Blue unit. (she's red)

So I would say these 3 have the highest chance of making it in. Ninian probably isn't as widely recognized as Olivia or Azura, but I believe she's well received by fans so they may include her.

The others have a much smaller chance. Out of the remaining 7, I'd say Feena has the best chance; Feena is the FIRST dancer in the series and is from New Mystery, which was pretty popular in Japan I believe? Japanese fans are more of an influence than foreign fans, so Feena isn't out of the question.

Sylvia is my next guess, because she could be just plain comedic relief and fanservice. She's gimmicky and pretty, so she works. And she's quotable too. "Ever seen a little girl with THESE before?" "I like it rough!" Plus the 1st Gen of FE4 is more popular in Japan than the 2nd Gen IIRC.

The others... not so much. I would love Lene to be in this, since technically, she could be the strongest dancer out of all of them (with the right father and strong for her game). And since this a hack and slash, and she's the strongest, it makes sense. Her and Feena are true combat dancers (Olivia is arguably one, but since you have to reclass her in order to do so....hmm I'm not sure if it counts but it doesn't matter anyways)

As for movesets, while they'll most likely have a sword, I would prefer if they had a more 'unconventional weapon' that way their moveset can be more dancer-like. Examples:

Spoiler

 

 

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4 hours ago, Dandy Druid said:

I would add to your list the Dancer class. Dancers are gimmicky, and KOEI (the company behind the Musou games) loves a good gimmick character every once in a while. It's not a crowded class either, only having 10 characters that'll be able to function as this role (technically 9 but I can see Azura being lumped in with them).

The issue is that this just takes into account the 3/6 games we know are confirmed. Which leaves us with Azura, Olivia and Pheena, I lumped them in with the Lance/Sword guys respectively because there weren't enough to where I thought I could justify giving them their own category. Azura's a guarantee tbh, and I really hope they don't skip out. Olivia and Phina's got far less chance due to basically no relevance.

I could see them getting in though under the guise of relations to other characters, or simply because Dancers would be interesting to stylise.

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