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Revival of Mafia Mafia- Day 3


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Cam, what do you think about his reasoning for why he voted you over Izhuark?  My initial reaction to it was that it read as confirmation bias over scum intent.

(as always, I'm in the midst of making a bigger post but I'd prefer to get these answers ASAP)

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Just now, Refa said:

Cam, what do you think about his reasoning for why he voted you over Izhuark?  My initial reaction to it was that it read as confirmation bias over scum intent.

I would have bought "you're the same except you have this thing with boron" if he had said that the first time instead of "hmm 'why me not him' is a bad reaction"

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17 minutes ago, Shin said:

However, in addition you had the thing with Boron and now you've got this hostile response against me. I said you were nitpicking because you didn't actually have a vote on me, nor did you have any other reads that you were sharing. It shows that you weren't willing to commit to a case, as with Boron, and you only voted me after being prodded repeatedly

this is also damned-if-i-do-damned-if-i-don't reasoning, as well as being strictly false -- refa was the only person that prodded me to vote (for anybody)

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6 minutes ago, CT075 said:

riddle me this:

"scum!cam made a bad play" is a reasonable argument

but "town!cam made a bad play" is not?

Town!Cam can show me he's town by making other town plays that suggest that it was a blip. Scum!Cam generally doesn't give me any reassurance.

I've said that your soft push on Boron and backtrack is what pushed you ahead of Izhuark, and now an extreme reluctance to vote and an absence of other cases have added themselves to the list. Refa prodded you to vote, I did not say that everyone was prodding you to vote. When I said prodding, I meant the to-and-from interaction that we've had during this phase. 

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##Unvote

Not feeling up to voting Paperblade.  If he's not contributing because of external sources, that's different and (more importantly) harder for me to read scum intent.

Regarding Shin, his switch from Izhuark to Cam this phase was really baffling to me.  He actually didn't mention Izhuark in his first post today at all, which bothers me because scum reads don't just disappear like that (I figured that that he was either townreading Izhuark or intentionally not voting him, but his later posts suggest that neither was the case).  Took him a while to actually explain why Cam was scummier than Izhuark as well, and it's...well, I'm with Cam on this one, actually;  felt like he was dodging the question even though he did have a reasonable answer (that being that he voted Cam over Izhuark because of the Boron thing).  His explanation also contradicts this post, where he gives a different explanation for voting Cam over Izhuark.  In general, I don't like his case on Cam, there's nothing about it that I can point to and say "HERE LIES SCUM".  It just irks me, I guess; still scumreading him for what I said before, though.

##Vote: Shin

8 hours ago, SB. said:

@Refa, it isn't scummy to suspect lurkers on its own but doing it as a player with zero impact on the game is kind of hypocritical. Like, what did you expect to actually get out of that Elieson vote? Maybe a tiny bit of pressure, but its more of an observation being made than trying to get anything out of him - and then the vote stays for so long. And throwing Prims in with the 'not really around' people is weird as heck and honestly better expanded upon, when reading it.

It's actually even weirder because it feels like your content gravitates towards Prims (and what other people think of him) much more in general until the end of the day but your vote is elsewhere.

Don't see how it was hypocritical at all.  I had a steady progression of reads and most of the active players weren't bothering me (and if people want to know my reads on people who don't bother me, they'll have to ask me because I'm not wasting my time on that shit).  Elie was the person I was most confident in flipping scum for the entirety of D1.  I'm not pretending it was a particularly strong read, but I don't get why it's such a bad vote considering the lynch was on Gaius (who had one more post than Elie when the votes were piling on, which wasn't even as bad as Elie's).

Prims barely made any posts for quite a while, and I just wasn't reading scum intent in his later posts.  That disconnect was why I didn't vote him, and I'm still conflicted on the slot TBH.  When it comes to you/Prims, I'm going to base my read on an admittedly small portion of your content because a lot of it just isn't telling (that's a compliment, I think).  My only issue with Prims on Day 1 was his reaction to the Shin vote, and I still don't think that's as telling as my issues with Elieson were.  Incidentally, that's also why you were higher on the scum list despite my biggest issue with you being a vote on me (which is inherently biased).

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12 minutes ago, CT075 said:

I would have bought "you're the same except you have this thing with boron" if he had said that the first time instead of "hmm 'why me not him' is a bad reaction"

22 hours ago, Shin said:

 

Looking back, Cam actually kinda bothers me, because he's incompetent. Initially, I thought he was just incompetent, but that attempt to softpush Boron came across as a lazy attempt to get a wagon going. I see no reason for town to try and do that unless there was a solid case, and his backtrack bothers me more in retrospect. I'd be interested to hear some of his not-Izhuark reads. Izhuark is guilty of the same, but the whole Boron thing makes me want to go for Cam ahead of him.

##Vote: Camdar

Unless you meant something in D1, this is what I said when I made my vote on you today. Not gonna jump on you for that, but I'm pretty curious at what you were referring to.

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In general, I don't like his case on Cam, BUT there's nothing about it that I can point to and say "HERE LIES SCUM".

^Fixing a minor error

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Just now, Shin said:

Unless you meant something in D1, this is what I said when I made my vote on you today. Not gonna jump on you for that, but I'm pretty curious at what you were referring to.

Wait, how did I miss that?  I quit.  That literally contradicts all of my issues with you.  I hate life.  Also rethinking my vote after I cry to myself.

##Unvote

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Just now, Refa said:

Wait, how did I miss that?  I quit.  That literally contradicts all of my issues with you.  I hate life.  Also rethinking my vote after I cry to myself.

##Unvote

No problem, bro, we should go get some NICE CREAM.

I did also talk about Izhuark after his massive list post and that his explanations don't match up with his priorities list. I really want him to come back and explain some of these, but a bunch of them are non-committal padding, but I can't really do that without a response from Izhuark! 

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i'll admit i didn't see that, but i still don't see why you didn't just say that here:

9 hours ago, Shin said:

Both you and Izhuark were pretty focused on each other for a lot of D1. I used the hip young piece of lingo "funky" to describe an argument which really didn't go anywhere. Maybe if you were COOL and YOUNG like me, you'd understand. I don't like the "why me not him" mentality, because I've made it clear that I really don't like Izhuark either. If I had two votes, you'd have one a piece!

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Just now, CT075 said:

i'll admit i didn't see that, but i still don't see why you didn't just say that here:

I kinda assumed that you'd read my initial post, so I was continuing my train of thought rather than just repeating the same one in hope that that changes the response I get.

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I am half there, there was just a problem (an actual problem not a game problem) eimm thzt really concerned me and i want to be sure all is right.

So if you can put what you want from me in the same post shin it will help me respond to it easily once i can fully concentrate on noc again.

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tfw sf keeps respawning the giant fucking content post from hours ago in your reply box

A lot of the Paper case falls apart if he's just kinda in a shitty headspace, so this vote is pointless now.

##Unvote
##Vote: Shin


I feel like Shin is being way too stubborn about this and get Cam's frustration. I actually thought that Shin pushing Cam coming into the day seemed town because I doubted that scum would want to immediately push that way based on how all interest seemed to have died out yesterday, but I kind of feel like he's just being almost too obstinate for this to be real? I don't think that he's legitimately addressing Cam's defense at all in a way that gives him a chance to change his opinion? 

Like, saying "town!Cam could prove himself" while true is a kind of ridiculous as a response when it feels like you're not actually evaluating his newer stuff and are just side-stepping arguments. There's nothing actually wrong with asking you to explain your lynch priority if he doesn't find it clear (I'm fairly sure others have too, so it's not like it was totally obvious).
 

2 hours ago, Shin said:

Never said it was a last minute wagon, nor did I say that you voted for her, BBM's mysterious question mark sporting ghost would be proud. My issue was that you produced a lazy read that you backtracked from immediately because someone suspected you. If making up a case on Paper would have been easier and gotten you less flak, why didn't you do it? You can't say "It doesn't count because you rely on scum making bad moves" after you've said "But scum wouldn't be that dumb". You can't have your cake and eat it, that's how you get diabetes!

Like, please explain how this is alignment relevant at all. How would Town!Cam react differently to Scum!Cam here and why? I actually have no idea where this logic is coming from.

I get that confirmation bias is a thing (and kind of thought that as an initial reaction) but it feels like this is going too far when Shin is not getting heated in these arguments at all. It looks like he's already reached his conclusion and THAT is why he isn't giving Cam the time of day instead of not thinking clearly because he's annoyed, upset, etc.

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Shin, I'm just salty because I read through your entire argument like FIVE TIMES but then I was like "That first post?  Nah, I definitely remember EXACTLY what it said, no need to check back".

Reread SB just to make sure I was okay with voting him.  I'm uh...not?  Maybe it's just paranoia because I really don't want to get to the end of this game only for SB to be like I WAS SCUM ALL ALONG BITCHES because no one else bothered to look at him.  His explanation for Prims' point that I sheeped is fine and while I still have issues with his vote on me, his followup to that was fine as well.  More importantly than that, though, rereading him made me realize that the reason I wasn't bothered with him early on was more because his tone and the way he pressed his cases felt townie over the actual cases themselves.

So then I moved on to Prims, of course.  My issues with his Shin case are still valid; in addition to him discrediting his own vote (saying that Shin does it as town and voting him anyways), it's weaker than his Zeonth case.  Don't like how he sidesteps this with "I dunno why I voted Shin over Zeonth" either.  Agree with Junk about how his Gaius case was stronger than his Cam case but he drops it anyways; I don't buy the mid day reaction test explanation.  A lot of his Cam case is paranoia over what Cam could be doing as scum over why Cam actually is scum.  None of his other D1 content makes me feel better about him, since they aren't cases (and like I said before, stuff like him pulling for a lynch on Gaius is alignment neutral).  Something that retroactively bothers me is that all of his cases today are entirely new (not bad on its own) and he doesn't follow up on issues with Cam. 

##Vote: Prims

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I don't feel great about Prims overall, but what do you think the motive behind scum!Prims changing the wagons from Cam to Gaius D1, Refa? I have some thoughts on this but I kind of want a second opinion.

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let's just get this over with

shin's first post:

On 7/17/2017 at 1:02 PM, Shin said:

I'm looking at the Prims on me, and there's a few possible explanations for it. However, I think it's pretty reasonable to question why I "knew" and it's pretty much the only sensible thing that someone could pick up on from my post. Something was going to trigger a wagon, but that didn't really seem like his intent. Fun fact: My guess about there being three scum was an ASSPULL that fit with my 666 joke. I can't actually take much issue with the rest of the wagon, it's more its critics that I'm interested in.

"I'm more interested in the critics of my wagon", followed by

On 7/17/2017 at 1:02 PM, Shin said:

Cam and Paper are BORING, I don't really see any meaningfulness in their interaction.

"nothing interesting happened here, paperblade throws his vote around a lot and izhuark's paperblade vote sucks".

On 7/17/2017 at 1:02 PM, Shin said:

My bro Refa brings VALID POINTS, and I'm already getting town vibes from him - which is bad because Refa's always scum and I end up losing horribly because I realise that he's scum right at the end or even after the game. Bro, what would BBM gain from swapping from Cam to SB other than creating another case for display as scum? I mean, that might be the conclusion you came to but it doesn't seem like much for a simple switch, unless you think that's bad compared to Izhuark's posts which make me SAD from reading them.

"refa's posts are fine"

On 7/17/2017 at 1:02 PM, Shin said:

To be fair, I'm really confused abotu Izhuark's priorities. There's nothing wrong with defending yourself, but when most of your content involves around trying to justify one's points, and then trying to shut down discussion to "move on", it doesn't look good. From what Izhuark's posted, I don't really see any sort of priorities other than "Paper might be bad, but I'm trying to make sense". He's not really trying to form any other real cases, so far he's just soft-pushing a few people. 

"izhuark hasn't really said anything about not-cam"

On 7/17/2017 at 1:02 PM, Shin said:

The game hasn't been particularly eventful, but the minimalist input from Gaius makes me SAD. His reason for voting Prims feels really late and unless he's literally posting as he reads (which doesn't appear likely), he's not really paid much attention to much of the game other than what he's been directly involved in.

"gaius is inactive and voted prims for a bad reason"

 

This post is reasonable but noncommittal -- the thing about me and paperblade ends with "but izhuark's vote looks really weird", followed by "izhuark isn't saying anything", ended by a "gaius is inactive" vote.

 

Next up:

On 7/18/2017 at 5:04 AM, Shin said:

BBM, as Cam clarified later, chasing after Cam for the "remembering why I voted comment" was incredibly nitpicky compared to the rest of his flow. I also disagree that Cam comes across as scum trying to seem consistent. The problem with Izhuar/SB/Cam is that they don't really make any sense as a scum team together, but they seem individually FUNKY. The rest of his points were valid, but leading the case with that almost seems like an attempt to discredit him.

"Izhuark/SB/Cam don't make sense as a scumteam and this one part of BBM's case is wrong" -- this hedges on BBM with the "this seems like an attempt to discredit" at the end.

On 7/18/2017 at 5:04 AM, Shin said:

Cam's kinda gone off on a massive tangent. I really don't like how he's gone into game theory because it makes me feel like I know NOTHING, but at the same time I'm really wondering why Scum!Cam would strip naked and start dancing in front of everyone as he is now. However, his weird push on Boron doesn't make sense at all - and then Cam realises that he's incompetent. It's hard to tell if that was genuine BBM literacy skills or a massive backtrack on his part when he realised he couldn't push it.

it was mentioned earlier that shin thinks that izhuark and i need to focus on not-each-other, so this doesn't actually come out of nowhere but it also appears to set up the next case on me. Further point -- my "weird push" on boron was first retracted because i "couldn't push it", but then because i was suspected for it, presumably referencing this single BBM post which are not actually the same thing. I'll buy "i thought about it and it was worse than i thought at first", but it's worth pointing out that this is also a pretty easy hedge.

On 7/18/2017 at 5:04 AM, Shin said:

There's a bunch of inactives this game, which ANNOYS ME. I could go for either Gaius, who made like one lame point about early game halfway through the day and hasn't contributed since, and Izhuark who basically wants to lynch Cam. There's a fairly hefty gap between Gaius/Izhuark and Cam/SB, which my first post didn't highlight. 

This is continuing to vote for an inactive, which is fine, i guess?

 

I've already aired my grievances with shin's case on me over the boron thing (which, for reference, is that all three posts stating that i had zero substance behind suspecting boron is "a lazy attempt to get a wagon going")

there's also

23 hours ago, Shin said:

My bro, Refa, kinda looks bad because I can't actually see why he didn't agree with Cam/Izhuark being lynched - despite being asked by Prims and saying he doesn't want to lynch either of them. Either the lack of ISO's has crippled my reading ability or he only swapped because he didn't want to be voting Eli. I still have this horrible thing where I townread Refa regardless, maybe I just want him to be town!

which is yet another hedge that could go either way easily

 

In this post, we have this:

10 hours ago, Shin said:

I'm not going to let that go assuming that scum!Cam would go for optimum play. I'd rather like you to elaborate your logic on picking Boron as town, surely there can't be NO RAISINS at all? 

this question doesn't really make sense and only gives the illusion of trying to press me further. why does town need a reason to "pick" anybody? note that my response to this was ignored, as was the fact that i stated multiple times that i didn't really have any concrete reason to be sus of boron

 

this post says that shin's staying on me because "it doesn't make sense for scum cam to do this" is a bad response (without elaboration). what i expected to say? the only other thing i really could have said was "i don't really know". i don't like this because it makes it sound like shin is giving more leeway than he did (there's no reason for me to bullshit some reason to vote boron and "i don't know" is easy to write off as "unconvincing").

 

this post ignores my response and writes off me defending myself as "nitpicking at his arguments" -- if i didn't think shin was scum before, i sure as hell did after that. This line doesn't really make sense either:

2 hours ago, Shin said:

If making up a case on Paper would have been easier and gotten you less flak, why didn't you do it? You can't say "It doesn't count because you rely on scum making bad moves" after you've said "But scum wouldn't be that dumb". You can't have your cake and eat it, that's how you get diabetes!

first of all, this strawmans my response, but also pre-supposes that i'm scum -- "making up a case on paperblade being easier and getting me less flak" are only concerns for a hypothetical scum!cam instead of town!cam (which basically flips the burden of proof; am i supposed to suddenly come up with an argument for scum!cam doing something stupid? of course not, that was my point to begin with)

 

I'll break this post down line by line:

1 hour ago, Shin said:

I said that your tunneling behaviour during D1 made you look bad, something that Izhuark was also guilty of. However, in addition you had the thing with Boron and now you've got this hostile response against me. I said you were nitpicking because you didn't actually have a vote on me, nor did you have any other reads that you were sharing. It shows that you weren't willing to commit to a case, as with Boron, and you only voted me after being prodded repeatedly. Izhuark is bad for his own reasons, but the whole debacle was why I voted you over him. Would you have had your rant if I'd voted him instead? Is my vote on you the only reason why you'd have considered scumreading me at all?

 

"I said that your tunneling behavior during D1 made you look bad, something that Izhuark was also guilty of" -- Fine.

"In addition, you had the thing with boron and now you've got this hostile response against me" -- This is damned if I do, damned if I don't. If I continue not to vote, it's easy to keep pressuring me for it. If I vote shin (as I did), it's "hostile". If I make up a case on someone else, it's "caving to pressure" (something that shin already stated that I did regarding the Boron thing)

 

i was gonna post more but sb cut me and this is long anyway

 

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oh i forgot to cover the rest of that quote

"I said you were nitpicking because you didn't actually have a vote on me, nor did you have any other reads that you were sharing." -- this completely sidesteps the fact that he's voting me and i'm picking holes in his arguments for calling me scum

"It shows that you weren't willing to commit to a case, as with Boron, and you only voted me after being prodded repeatedly." -- see above

"Izhuark is bad for his own reasons, but the whole debacle was why I voted you over him." -- This is fine on its own but completely disregards my defense that basically comes down to "your reasoning about the debacle makes no sense"

"Would you have had your rant if I'd voted him instead?" -- this is a misleading hypothetical; obviously I don't know because you didn't

"Is my vote on you the only reason why you'd have considered scumreading me at all?" -- This is subtly implying that I hav eno reason for voting shin other than OMGUS, The answer is yes, by the way; I didn't really have a reason to look deeply into your posts until this argument had you basically ignoring my counterarguments

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Votals D2:

Prims (2): junko, Refa
Elieson (2): Boron, Izhuark
Camtech (1): Shin
Paperblade (1): Prims
Shin (2): Camtech, SB

Not voting: Paperblade, Elieson

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 2 ends on the 22nd of July, GMT 4:45 pm (in 1 day, 19 hours and 15 minutes).

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WRT Prims I do actually buy him swapping to me to see my reaction. Prims was  but I'm less willing to buy the switch off me at the end of the phase. FMPOV, Prims was one of the primary drivers of my wagon and I don't think anybody would have questioned him staying on me.

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1 minute ago, CT075 said:

WRT Prims I do actually buy him swapping to me to see my reaction. Prims was  but I'm less willing to buy the switch off me at the end of the phase. FMPOV, Prims was one of the primary drivers of my wagon and I don't think anybody would have questioned him staying on me.

wtf SF i deleted that because it was dumb

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