Voting Gauntlet: Battle on the Beach!

[Ice Dragon]

7 minutes ago, Sarracenia said:

Didn't expect Robin to pass up Corrin so swiftly.

Well, as long as the next Robin multiplier hits around the 30-hour mark, Corrin's got this in the bag.

Forecast still at this link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13Uy_ahqcH76loBNST3w_lPTdY3JqifNjmMru_6rmjnk/htmlview

[Thane]

9 minutes ago, Sarracenia said:

Didn't expect Robin to pass up Corrin so swiftly.

She just had a times four multiplier and didn't even pull ahead enough to give Team Corrin one. I'd say that doesn't bode well for Team Robin. Jesus, just how many people are on Team Corrin?

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

Just now, Thane said:

She just had a times four multiplier and didn't even pull ahead enough to give Team Corrin one. I'd say that doesn't bode well for Team Robin. Jesus, just how many people are on Team Corrin?

We are Legion.

[Alkaid]

3 minutes ago, Sarracenia said:

Didn't expect Robin to pass up Corrin so swiftly.

The flag-spending fight is fierce. This is probably the longest I can remember a round swinging back and fourth hour to hour for so long.

Also forgot to post last night that I joined team Robin when Tiki went down. If anybody on Robin (and even Corrin, because I'm going to join her after when Robin likely loses) would like another teammate my FC is in my sig.

And funnily I'm still getting the same Lyn and @Frenzify's M Robin for all my matches even after the switch. (Since I haven't seen @a bear's Camus again I assume he's gone to team Corrin or Leo) The rng really wants us to stick together.

If anybody wants me to switch my unit from B Cordelia just let me know. I left her alone for now since she still seems like she'll be good against Corrin's team.

 

[Ice Dragon]

1 minute ago, Thane said:

She just had a times four multiplier and didn't even pull ahead enough to give Team Corrin one. I'd say that doesn't bode well for Team Robin. Jesus, just how many people are on Team Corrin?

Based on score counts, Team Corrin is just under 2 times the size of Team Robin.

[Thane]

3 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

We are Legion.

I'm torn between replying "UWEHEHE!" and "Disgusting", so you get both.

Quote

Based on score counts, Team Corrin is just under 2 times the size of Team Robin.

I see, thanks. By any chance, was Team Corrin some four times the size of Team Elise? Because Team Corrin started with more than four times the score of Team Elise, and barely double the amount of Team Robin.

Edited August 3, 2017 by Thane

[Ice Dragon]

5 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

We are Legion.

2 minutes ago, Thane said:

I'm torn between replying "UWEHEHE!" and "Disgusting", so you get both.

ヤヤッ　俺がいっぱいいる。

ウキキ。

 

2 minutes ago, Thane said:

I see, thanks. By any chance, was Team Corrin some four times the size of Team Elise? Because Team Corrin started with more than four times the score of Team Elise, and barely double the amount of Team Robin.

Team Corrin was about 5 times the size of Team Elise.

[Thane]

2 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

ヤヤッ　俺がいっぱいいる。

ウキキ。

Well I mean, he's not wrong. Too bad I've never played FE12, 'cause I sort of want to know what his deal is. 

2 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Team Corrin was about 5 times the size of Team Elise.

I see. Welp, since this is an anime game, I'll try to defy the data and all the stats and score a win for Robin anyway, 'cause it doesn't matter how little clothes Corrin wears, I can't join her team.

[Book Bro]

Dammit, Leo is not doing as well as I hoped. Did most people from defeated teams go over to the waifus?

[Beddlam]

Man, whoever wins from the men's side is going to get like 30 hrs of bonuses in the final match-up. 

I was a fool and woke up in the middle of the night to catch Robin's first 2 bonuses before I realized I'm much better off waiting and trying to catch the last few. Do the people keeping track of the math have an estimate of how many more bonuses Robin will get?

[Ice Dragon]

6 minutes ago, Book Bro said:

Dammit, Leo is not doing as well as I hoped. Did most people from defeated teams go over to the waifus?

Team Leo actually outnumbers Team Gaius by about 1.5×. You're just currently recovering from the last Gaius multiplier.

 

EDIT2:

4 minutes ago, Beddlam said:

Man, whoever wins from the men's side is going to get like 30 hrs of bonuses in the final match-up. 

I was a fool and woke up in the middle of the night to catch Robin's first 2 bonuses before I realized I'm much better off waiting and trying to catch the last few. Do the people keeping track of the math have an estimate of how many more bonuses Robin will get?

You can check the forecast: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13Uy_ahqcH76loBNST3w_lPTdY3JqifNjmMru_6rmjnk/htmlview

(The answer is 1.)

Edited August 3, 2017 by Ice Dragon
I can numbers.

[a bear]

16 minutes ago, Alkaid said:

And funnily I'm still getting the same Lyn and @Frenzify's M Robin for all my matches even after the switch. (Since I haven't seen @a bear's Camus again I assume he's gone to team Corrin or Leo) The rng really wants us to stick together.

Yup, I went to Corrin. Also swapped out Camus for Olivia to stick with my "use the color your team is strong to" plan.

[Anacybele]

I hope Robin can somehow beat Corrin and make it to the final. I think Robin would definitely beat Leo (who will surely beat Gaius). I'd love for her to win it all for Freddy!

[Tactician_Iris]

1 hour ago, Silith13 said:

Summer!Corrin helped a lot. Though I entered the fights with level 1 Xander so your corrin whiped the floor with them. The Lon'Qu someone else kept providing was also really good. I don't know if it was someone on here that did that. The dedication of a Lon'Qu with Counter was heartwarming.

Glad to hear she flushed a few opponents to the abyss for you! :D

There's plenty of dedication in this game that's for sure, one of the most impressive examples I've seen first hand is this Japanese Laslow in my Friendlist with 76 skills in his skill list including stuff like Zanbato+, Heavy Blade 3, and Cancel Affinity 3.

They also had an all 5* Laslow team in the arena and some of them were merged to boot (idek how many feathers that must have cost). Impressive for sure.

1 hour ago, Tolvir said:

 

Tfw your current Crusader Kings 2 playthrough going on for 350+ years has you playing as a Zorostrian Shah. *Looks at FE - shrugs* Eh...this is peanuts in comparison to Zoroastrian dynasties in CK2.

[Beddlam]

6 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

You can check the forecast: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13Uy_ahqcH76loBNST3w_lPTdY3JqifNjmMru_6rmjnk/htmlview

Thanks for the link! Man, if felt like we were losing much more badly than that. I thought we'd have a 3 or 4 more multipliers by the end.

[Ice Dragon]

1 minute ago, Anacybele said:

I hope Robin can somehow beat Corrin and make it to the final. I think Robin would definitely beat Leo (who will surely beat Gaius). I'd love for her to win it all for Freddy!

Interestingly enough:

• Robin has basically no chance against Corrin because of where the multiplier is going to hit. Team Robin needs to either speed up their point acquisition to move their next multiplier forward by something like 10 hours or slow down their point acquisition to move their next multiplier backwards by something like 10 hours, and neither of those are statistically plausible.
• Gaius has a very good chance of an upset again, again due to where the multiplier lands. Gaius's next multiplier is likely to occur late in the round and won't give Leo enough time to recover.

[Kaden]

43 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

That feels a bit lazy... They couldn't come up with a unique one for them all? Oh well.

Or it's a theme. The Spring Festival had Camilla and Xander share "Spring is here!" which is similar to summer Elise and Leo sharing "I'll sink you!" There's also Chrom and Lucina sharing 3 quotes: "I say when winter's over!", "Spring gives me strength!", and, "You will not stop my festivity!" It's only the Nohrian and Ylissean Summer banners that all characters regardless of which game they came from or their relations all sharing the same line of "Tropical Attack!" If anything, it's kind of similar to the Fates retainers and royals sharing a special/critical quote.

Also, both Corrins share 3 quotes, Chrom and both Robins share "Our bonds give me strength!", normal Xander and summer Xander share "Right where I want you!", and regular and spring Camilla share "Sweet dreams."

[Anacybele]

2 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Interestingly enough:

• Robin has basically no chance against Corrin because of where the multiplier is going to hit. Team Robin needs to either speed up their point acquisition to move their next multiplier forward by something like 10 hours or slow down their point acquisition to move their next multiplier backwards by something like 10 hours, and neither of those are statistically plausible.
• Gaius has a very good chance of an upset again, again due to where the multiplier lands. Gaius's next multiplier is likely to occur late in the round and won't give Leo enough time to recover.

Will you please stop this? Just because you say it doesn't mean it will actually happen. Gaius didn't upset Frederick, Gaius almost got upset himself. Frederick just barely didn't have enough time to recover from the last Gaius multiplier.

Edited August 3, 2017 by Anacybele

[Ice Dragon]

2 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

Will you please stop this? Just because you say it doesn't mean it will actually happen. Gaius didn't upset Frederick, Gaius almost got upset himself. Frederick just barely didn't have enough time to recover from the last Gaius multiplier.

Do you also yell at the weatherman on the TV for telling you there will be isolated thunderstorms tomorrow?

Edited August 3, 2017 by Ice Dragon

[Anacybele]

Just now, Ice Dragon said:

Do you also yell at the weatherman on the TV for telling you ithere will be isolated thunderstorms tomorrow?

No, but weather forecasts are not always accurate either. I've seen my phone's weather app tell me rain will come the next day, but then we don't get a single drop.

[Beddlam]

2 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Do you also yell at the weatherman on the TV for telling you it there will be isolated thunderstorms tomorrow?

But he said there was a 60% chance of rain and it didn't rain!! He knows nothing!

[Frenzify]

25 minutes ago, Alkaid said:

And funnily I'm still getting the same Lyn and @Frenzify's M Robin for all my matches even after the switch. (Since I haven't seen @a bear's Camus again I assume he's gone to team Corrin or Leo) The rng really wants us to stick together.

Your Cordelia has been a great help whenever I got her. Not as often as you seem to be getting my Robin, though. Kinda makes me regret not getting her in the bride banner. I may be tempted to switch back to Beruka, though, as the summer Robin is also a blue unit, and I imagine most people would be entering the gauntlet with their bonus unit.

[Ice Dragon]

2 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

No, but weather forecasts are not always accurate either. I've seen my phone's weather app tell me rain will come the next day, but then we don't get a single drop.

I'm basically doing the same thing: turning numbers into words.

 

As for a few other things:

• Gaius's win in the first round definitely counts as an upset. His team was about 5% smaller and ended up winning because Frederick's team couldn't recover from the last Gaius multiplier.
• Forecasts for the Voting Gauntlets are actually more interesting than forecasts for the weather because the reactions of the players can affect the outcome.
• That said, Robin has very little hope to win. Her next multiplier is to far from the end of the round to make Corrin's team unable to recover, but not far enough from the end of the round to get one more multiplier in near the end. However, because the round has only just started, a lot can still change, but it will have to change a lot to have a meaningful effect.
• Leo's currently projected loss is entirely avoidable. If the current trend continues, he's still in a position for a rally in the last 2 or 3 hours to take back his rightful lead. Leo can also invest some more pressure in the next few hours to push the next Gaius multiplier earlier by about 2 or 3 hours, which can give Leo enough time to recover from the Gaius multiplier.

[SageOfAnys]

15 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

• Gaius has a very good chance of an upset again, again due to where the multiplier lands. Gaius's next multiplier is likely to occur late in the round and won't give Leo enough time to recover.

Soo... what you're telling me is that Team Leo might need to do a repeat of Team Elise in the last gauntlet by not using flags to prevent the enemy from getting the bonus?

Goddamit not again. At least I ranked well last round to make up for the inevitably bad ranking I'll get this round.

[Ice Dragon]

Just now, SageOfAnys said:

Soo... what you're telling me is that Team Leo might need to do a repeat of Team Elise in the last gauntlet by not using flags to prevent the enemy from getting the bonus?

Goddamit not again. At least I ranked well last round to make up for the inevitably bad ranking I'll get this round.

Actually, based on the forecast, the best chance Leo has is to burn as many flags as possible. At the current pace, Leo will barely fail to recover from the next Gaius multiplier, meaning he wants to push Gaius's multiplier a few hours earlier to give him another few hours to recover.