Ice Dragon Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 As expected, Robin closed the gap more than the forecast spreadsheet predicted. Team Corrin can now cruise control to victory, but if point acquisition doesn't taper off, there's still a chance of Robin getting a multiplier near the end because of how close to the threshold the score will get. Gaius v. Leo is still a toss-up until we see the results of the next yo-yo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anacybele Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Ice Dragon said: As expected, Robin closed the gap more than the forecast spreadsheet predicted. Team Corrin can now cruise control to victory, but if point acquisition doesn't taper off, there's still a chance of Robin getting a multiplier near the end because of how close to the threshold the score will get. Gaius v. Leo is still a toss-up until we see the results of the next yo-yo. I REALLY wish you would stop bringing up these "forecast sheets." You rely on them too much and I'm tired of hearing about them. And as I've said before, they're not perfectly accurate as you just showed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falcom Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 (edited) That is not a good situation for Team Robin. It's nearly impossible for them to earn another multiplier. Welp, Team Corrin will win this round. Edit: Oh wait Ice Dragon said it already. Lol Edited August 4, 2017 by Falcom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Dragon Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Just now, Anacybele said: I REALLY wish you would stop bringing up these "forecast sheets." You rely on them too much and I'm tired of hearing about them. And as I've said before, they're not perfectly accurate as you just showed. And I really wish you'd actually take some time to understand how forecasts work instead of blasting away at me every time I say something you don't like to hear because the character you want to win doesn't look like they will win. You have this bad habit of agreeing with me when I give you favorable news and telling me to fuck off when I give you unfavorable news despite the fact that I'm using the exact same source of data for both. The spreadsheet may be wrong, but it's wrong in predictable ways. The algorithm they are using for it is naive, which means if you know in what ways it makes the wrong assumptions, you can make a more accurate forecast by correcting those assumptions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beddlam Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, Anacybele said: I REALLY wish you would stop bringing up these "forecast sheets." You rely on them too much and I'm tired of hearing about them. And as I've said before, they're not perfectly accurate as you just showed. Many of us find them useful, and no one has claimed they are perfectly accurate. This is a forum, you don't get to dictate what others post. If you don't find the forcast sheets useful, just ignore posts concerning them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bartozio Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 I'm honestly suprised Gaius hasn't gotten the multiplier yet. Still, considering the score, it's pretty much guranteed he'll get it in the next hour. Guess these next few hours will pretty much determine the outcome of this round. Still not sure what the best tactic is for us now... 11 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: As expected, Robin closed the gap more than the forecast spreadsheet predicted. Team Corrin can now cruise control to victory, but if point acquisition doesn't taper off, there's still a chance of Robin getting a multiplier near the end because of how close to the threshold the score will get. Since Robin didn't catch up even with the multiplier this time, do you think it would matter if they got it later on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Dragon Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Just now, Bartozio said: Since Robin didn't catch up even with the multiplier this time, do you think it would matter if they got it later on? They can swing their score by about 3 billion points, which is enough to regain the lead from the -10% point. The only reason they didn't regain the lead this time was because they were way farther down than -10% after the Corrin multiplier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anacybele Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, Beddlam said: Many of us find them useful, and no one has claimed they are perfectly accurate. This is a forum, you don't get to dictate what others post. If you don't find the forcast sheets useful, just ignore posts concerning them. I'm not trying to dictate what anyone posts. Besides, I'm told to stop posting certain things sometimes too. I just don't think Ice Dragon has to make every one of his posts in this thread about "forecast sheets." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astellius Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Ah, Corrin got a multiplier and I missed it! I seem to always miss the multipliers. 8 hours ago, Tactician_Iris said: Your Cherche has been a green nuke of doom for any greens/blues I've pitted her against so far, that's for sure! In other words, your Cherche's Minerva has gotten quite a few snacks on my matchups her latest "snack" being a Delthea. ;) I'll be honest, seeing your Cherche in action really makes me want to finish building my own, and I'm almost there, "only" her own 5* promo and Brave Axe+ promo left. Speaking of Reps, do either of you, @Astellius, @Infinite Dreams, want me to switch out Xander for anyone else/another colour? 4 hours ago, Tactician_Iris said: Heh...speaking of those two matchups, @Astellius's Cherche saved my bacon on both, the first one I went up against Ryoma, Bridal!Cordelia, and Ninian. On my end I had Takumi, Cherche, and...a random Bridal!Lyn. I thought I'd lose that one for sure, but no - thanks to Cherche's Squad Ace and Brave Axe+ we carried the day, since she could tank a hit from Ryoma (2 HP remaining). The second match was Takumi, Cherche, and random Spring!Chrom vs Awakening!Tiki, Gray, and Setsuna (with a Refreshing Bolt+). And Cherche carried the team again thanks to Repositioning Takumi. Haven't gotten your Xander yet, but it's good to see that Cherche is putting in good work! My Cherche is +HP, so I thought the Squad Ace looks really nice on her, giving her 52 HP. She can definitely take a hit! Was definitely worth it to spend two 5* allies to build her that way! As for color quests, I don't have a Summer Corrin, so that makes it simple for me to just field whoever needs to cover a quest. Thanks though! 7 hours ago, Rafiel's Aria said: Guess who made it onto the top player board? I shouldn't be this excited. Also I still have 710 flags. Congrats! Hope you stay there! 17 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: As expected, Robin closed the gap more than the forecast spreadsheet predicted. Team Corrin can now cruise control to victory, but if point acquisition doesn't taper off, there's still a chance of Robin getting a multiplier near the end because of how close to the threshold the score will get. Gaius v. Leo is still a toss-up until we see the results of the next yo-yo. Yeah, the best strategy for Corrin is to simply take it easy. I really dislike how the multiplier system disincentivizes play frequently. 13 minutes ago, Anacybele said: I REALLY wish you would stop bringing up these "forecast sheets." You rely on them too much and I'm tired of hearing about them. And as I've said before, they're not perfectly accurate as you just showed. This is a forum, so stop taking issue all the time with what people say. If you don't like those posts, just ignore them. That's mostly what I do with your posts now, since seem to like taking issue with everything. Stop being so confrontational, especially when the post had nothing to do with you. Seriously, why should we have to cater the conversation to you? Some of us like talking about the data and making predictions off of that. It's fun for some of us, but why should we stop simply because you don't like it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuiltyLove Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Just now, Astellius said: This is a forum, so stop taking issue all the time with what people say. If you don't like those posts, just ignore them. That's mostly what I do with your posts now, since seem to like taking issue with everything. Stop being so confrontational, especially when the post had nothing to do with you. Seriously, why should we have to cater the conversation to you? Some of us like talking about the data and making predictions off of that. It's fun for some of us, but why should we stop simply because you don't like it? This is a lost cause. It's not worth trying to reason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anacybele Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Astellius said: This is a forum, so stop taking issue all the time with what people say. If you don't like those posts, just ignore them. That's mostly what I do with your posts now, since seem to like taking issue with everything. Stop being so confrontational, especially when the post had nothing to do with you. Seriously, why should we have to cater the conversation to you? Some of us like talking about the data and making predictions off of that. It's fun for some of us, but why should we stop simply because you don't like it? Then people should stop taking issue with what I say sometimes. Because I get this every now and then too. And the only thing I've been taking issue with lately is Ice Dragon's "forecasts." Nothing else. And using "data" and "sheets" ruins the fun for me, personally. Edited August 4, 2017 by Anacybele Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astellius Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Just now, GuiltyLove said: This is a lost cause. It's not worth trying to reason Yeah, I know, but I at least wanted to show some solidarity with Ice Dragon, because I do like being able to discuss things like predictions and forecasts, and I like his posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anacybele Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 (edited) Still, why would you ruin someone's fun like this? But fine, I don't need this. I won't post in this thread anymore if this is all that will happen. Edited August 4, 2017 by Anacybele Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruruo Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Astellius said: Yeah, the best strategy for Corrin is to simply take it easy. I really dislike how the multiplier system disincentivizes play frequently. On the flip side I find the multiplier system god-sent for more casual play. For this gauntlet just I check the trackers for when the multipliers will hit to get points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astellius Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 1 minute ago, ruruo said: On the flip side I find the multiplier system god-sent for more casual play. For this gauntlet just I check the trackers for when the multipliers will hit to get points. Yeah, that is nice. I miss being able to rally all the time, but this can be okay too. I would like the rewards for deep participation to be better, but I suppose I'm doing well enough on feathers even without good rankings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Personette Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 (edited) Can someone point me to a good tracker? I'm trying to figure out when gaius will get the multiplier. Edited August 4, 2017 by Personette Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ildanach Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 (edited) 1 minute ago, Personette said: Can someone point me to a good tracker? I'm trying to figure out when gaius will get the multiplier. I believe this one has a pretty decent reliability:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13Uy_ahqcH76loBNST3w_lPTdY3JqifNjmMru_6rmjnk/htmlview# Edit: speaking of which, it looks like Gaius is on track to get a multiplier as on the next score update (1:03 PM eastern). Edited August 4, 2017 by Ildanach Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Personette Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Ildanach said: I believe this one has a pretty decent reliability:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13Uy_ahqcH76loBNST3w_lPTdY3JqifNjmMru_6rmjnk/htmlview# Thank you very much! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bartozio Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said: They can swing their score by about 3 billion points, which is enough to regain the lead from the -10% point. The only reason they didn't regain the lead this time was because they were way farther down than -10% after the Corrin multiplier. Derp, thanks for the reminder... 2 minutes ago, Personette said: Can someone point me to a good tracker? I'm trying to figure out when gaius will get the multiplier. Pretty sure he'll get it in the next hour, considering how he barely didn't get it this hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a bear Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Boy I really wish they just let you fight twice every hour (starting on the hour) instead of a 30 minute cooldown. That or if someone woke me up 30 minutes earlier this morning, both good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alkaid Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 1 minute ago, a bear said: Boy I really wish they just let you fight twice every hour (starting on the hour) instead of a 30 minute cooldown. That or if someone woke me up 30 minutes earlier this morning, both good. Indeed. I was lucky to wake up just a few minutes after the start of Robin's first multiplier this morning. Had I slept just a little more I might have missed doing one of the battles. Though the fact that I even immediately reached over to check my phone after waking up may indicate I have a problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Personette Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bartozio said: Pretty sure he'll get it in the next hour, considering how he barely didn't get it this hour. Yeah, I've been checking every few minutes for the last hour & I finally got irritated enough to do the easier and more efficient thing that I should have been doing to begin with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vaximillian Posted August 4, 2017 Author Share Posted August 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, a bear said: Boy I really wish they just let you fight twice every hour (starting on the hour) instead of a 30 minute cooldown. That or if someone woke me up 30 minutes earlier this morning, both good. Just give us two “charges”, each replenishing in half an hour. It’s much more convenient than a strict cooldown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magical Glace Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 As expected, Gaius does indeed have a multiplier now. Time for some ping pong, I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astellius Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, Personette said: Can someone point me to a good tracker? I'm trying to figure out when gaius will get the multiplier. In addition to the one @Ildanach posted, which gives statistical projections, there's also this one if you were wanting to look at various types of data in more detail: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bxAC7aTAl7ZmrM4dQX-5jMY1cihagCtieLquruI1bPs/edit#gid=0 It has tabs at the bottom for the different things one can look at (hourly gains, charts, lead percentages). Doesn't have the forecasts, but I think it's a good resource for people if they like looking at that. 2 minutes ago, Vaximillian said: Just give us two “charges”, each replenishing in half an hour. It’s much more convenient than a strict cooldown. I like that idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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