FE16 "leaks"

[domilea]

Perhaps this isn't the best thread to be posting this, but I'd like to gather everything we do know in one place, while positing some theories of my own. 

[Warning, wall of text incoming. I'm not the most succinct person on my best days, and since I'm still recovering from a recent cold....] 

Anyway... this is what we know for sure:

• Unless IS gives an official announcement that shows FE16 has been delayed, we're still expecting a 2018 release date.
• Aesthetically, characters will aim for "realistic proportions and movements"; the game aims to be "completely different... breathing life into our characters like never before."
  • https://serenesforest.net/2017/08/16/echoes-nintendo-dream-interview-may-2017 and https://nintendoeverything.com/nintendo-says-fire-emblem-switch-is-going-to-be-looking-beautiful-with-great-graphics/
  • I can definitely see how people can interpret these interview statements to mean, "Intensified Waifu Simulator-16", and leave it at that. But to me, these interview statements mean that IS is finally going to get away from the cel-shaded style of past FEs, and to finally give the characters' hair and clothes some much-needed detail and texture. I think that's what they've wanted to do for a long time, actually. Remember the first minute of the Fates teaser trailer? Now, imagine if the cel-shading that Azura, Garon, etc. got were replaced with that opening style.... (For those with memories as bad as mine, here's a link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pz2LJ-4DDWU).  

That's more-or-less all the concrete facts we have about FE16. From here on, we slide into less solid statements. Prepare for a bit of a detour:

• The typical FE Cipher events follow a set pattern. About a five weeks before a set's release date, the first promotional livestream is held. The second livestream, called the pre-release, is held the weekend before the release date. It is at these livestreams where the next two sets' game focuses and artwork are revealed - so that, for those uninterested in the current set, they may have something to look forward to from the next set, or the set after that. Series 12 (S12) just released, so as expected, the livestreams did give non-fans of Green/Yellow/Blue decks something to look forward to: S13 is going to be Purple/Red/Colourless.
• But, in an atypical move from Cipher, we still know nothing about S14 except for the keyword, "infinity" (無限 mugen). The complete lack of rough character art or formal announcement of the set's game focuses is highly suspicious, and has led a lot of the Cipher community to expect S14 to be the FE16 introductory set. 
  • As an example of what I'm talking about, some cards from the most recent set (S12) were shown in rough way back during an S10 livestream, and S9's equivalent also had early artwork for S11.
    • See for yourself: https://www.reddit.com/r/fireemblem/comments/70h7aj/cipher_s10_prerelease_livestream_screencaps/ and https://www.reddit.com/r/fireemblem/comments/6htcpt/cipher_s9_prerelease_livestreaam_summary_and/.
  • In contrast, the S12 pre-release livestream said nary a word about S14:  https://www.reddit.com/r/fireemblem/comments/853qae/cipher_s12_prerelease_livestream_new_s12_cards/
• Cipher sets also release on a consistent schedule. Releases have always been held in March, June, September, and December. S12 came out this month, and S13 appears to be on-track for a June 28 release date. So unless something exceptional happens, then this mysterious S14 should be coming out in September.
  • However, how this relates to FE16's release date is uncertain. We have no precedent to go by here; this is the first time in Cipher's life that a totally-new, not-a-remake entry has come out, so how Cipher is going to handle it is a matter of curiosity. Will S14 precede the game, and act as a promotional material in of itself? Or will it come out after (which seems to be the more logical decision)?  
• Because of this consistency in Cipher's scheduling, we can also predict when Cipher's first S13 livestream should be held: around May 23. S12 may have completely skimmed over S14, but for the set right before S14 to not include any mention of it at all would be very unusual. It is possible, then, that we'll get our first substantial news (i.e. more than just a keyword) about S14 by around May 23. Furthermore, the second S13 livestream should take place around June 23, and since that has always been when we get finished art releases for the next set... then we might get glimpses into Cipher's FE16 card art between May/June 23.
• E3 is to be held between June 12-14 this year. Given the scarcity of tangible information about FE16 up to now, the general consensus by the fandom is that FE16 will get its first reveal either at E3, or before that; but, presuming the 2018 release remains true, FE16's presence at E3 seems to be assured.
  • E3 takes place in-between the two S13 livestreams. This fact is the reason why some hold that the May livestream may continue the radio silence, as the timing is perfect for the June livestream to further promote what was revealed at E3. 
  • However, if FE16 is to be revealed before E3, then the most commonly-cited date is the franchise's birthday, April 20. This isn't without some merit, as FE has given its birthday some significance in the past: Blazing Blade's Japanese release date was Apr 25, Path of Radiance's was Apr 20, Awakening's was Apr 19, and Echoes: Shadows of Valentia's was also Apr 20. Do bear in mind, however, that the precedent for game releases being around the birthday does not speak the same for game reveals.    
  • The other pre-E3 possibility is sometime in May. This idea comes from the aforementioned Cipher livestream dates. It would be very, very odd for our first images of FE16 to be given to us via Cipher. Thus, if the May livestream contains anything about FE16, then it is probable that a formal reveal for the game itself precedes it. The outcome would be approximately similar to the late-April reveal, just without the presumption of FE's birthday having any sort of significance. 
• The part that Heroes plays into all of this is relatively minor, mainly because of Heroes' comparatively flexible scheduling and tendency to only announce things at best a month in advance. But if how Shadows of Valentia was handled is any indication, then FE16 would most definitely get a plethora of banners, at least one if not two Tempest Trials, and a dedicated GHB. If the September date for S14 has any meaning, then Heroes' banner(s) and events may also be in around that time.
  • With all of the lords out of the way by April, Heroes is probably going to subsist on alts until FE16 drops. A September release would roughly coincide with the time of the year when the first Choose Your Legends banner dropped. But then - is there more perfect a way to nab orbs, than to have the first FE16 banner near the second CYL?

Okay. This part now transitions into the almost purely hypothetical territory. Please do not hold anything said below here as incontestable fact.

I do not normally give so-called "leakers" or rumourmongers much credit. It's fun to think about Vampire Emblem, Pirate Emblem, Fire Emblem on Mars, etc. But there are good reasons for why these "leaks" or "rumours" get dismissed as quickly as they do. I do not believe I am alone in this, either. But for the moment, let us place our skepticism aside. 

A couple of weeks ago, one particular Twitter account gained some fame by predicting the March Direct before anyone else did. This same user claimed that Fire Emblem 16: 

• would be subtitled "Elegy of the Brave", at least as a WIP title, owing to its theme around "soldiers passing away,"
• that it would have a summer release date,
• and that a CG trailer for it would be shown at the March Direct.
  •  https://twitter.com/LeakyPandy/status/970983243137855489 

Well, as we all know, they were wrong about a lot of things, including the supposed March reveal. They later apologized for it, and claimed that their error was out of "tunnel vision". However, they maintained that everything else was true. (https://twitter.com/LeakyPandy/status/972248748729434113) 

I have a lot of reservations with their statements, especially since they don't have a reputation to back them up with. But there are some... things about what they've said, that have given me pause. Allow me to elaborate:

• "CG trailer reveal"
  • Since this would be similar to how Fates was handled, no surprise there. Neither is there much to discuss. 
• "Summer release date"
  • Given the theorized reveal dates discussed earlier (around April 20, sometime in May, or else at E3), this short of a timeframe seems improbable.
  • However. Perhaps it is the only thing in this statement's favour, but there is one thing: Cipher. Namely, S14's probable September release.
    • If we give this statement credit and assume a Japanese release date in August... that would give the fans time to be acquainted with the new cast, incentivizing preorders for S14. More importantly, by the usual schedule, S14's livestreams would be held in August and September. Releasing the game in the (late) summer would also avoid the problem of livestreams promoting cards for characters from a game no one has played yet.
    • Additionally, an August release would give FE16 some room to breathe before Smash inevitably takes up all the attention for the Switch during the Fall/Holiday season. 
    • However, Cipher could simply choose to not release in September (which would be a first, to be sure). Or perhaps it could release cards for a game no one's played yet. Who knows? 
• "Elegy of the Brave" / "Soldiers passing away":
  • Vague. Nonspecific. And on top of that, permadeath is already a series staple, leaving this statement rather wanting for meaning.
  • However. Allow me to play the devil's advocate here, just for a moment. Once again, I'm turning to Cipher:
    • Each colour in Cipher is associated with a particular set of games. These roughly correlate with the consoles they were played on. As FE16 is our first mainline game on the Switch, it seems likely to introduce a new colour to Cipher.
    • Each colour also has its own typifying traits; usually, these are through certain classes of skills being found in abundance in one colour, but being scarce in the others. Because these skills use different triggering mechanisms, each colour in Cipher has a different feel to them, a different playstyle, a different flavour. And a hypothetical new colour should be no different. 
    • While there are many ways a new colour could differentiate itself from the established colours, the simplest way would be to introduce a class of skills that trigger or manipulate the board in a way not already done by the other colours. And the simplest method to do that, is to alter the skill's location.
    • Most other areas of the board, however, are already covered in some way by the other colours (e.g. Orbs - White/Black/Blue; Bonds - Yellow; Supports - Purple). It's certainly possible for a new colour to share its design space with another colour.
    • There are three locations, however, which have not been the focus of any class of skills: the hand, the deck, and the Retreat. Skills oriented around the hand or the deck tend to be tricky to balance. But as far as I am aware, there are no colours which are typified by skills that trigger from/manipulate the Retreat. Such a class of skills could have interesting synergy with established colours, especially ones that rapidly mill cards. 
  • What was the point of all this? Well... in other TCGs, the Retreat is known as the Graveyard. 
    • This would result in an entire Cipher colour themed around soldiers passing away.

In summary, from my perspective:

SCHEDULING

•  There has been nothing stating FE16 won't hold to its 2018 release date.
• In the 3 years since its inception, Cipher has held fast to a clockwork schedule.
• The scheduling seems to imply that FE16 will be revealed sometime between late April to mid-June.
• This schedule also seems to imply that FE16 will be released sometime between late August to October.
• An unverified Twitter account has claimed a summer release date for FE16.
  • This account should not be held reliable in any way whatsoever. But it is worth noting that they have gained notoriety for predicting the March Direct, and thus they do have that tiny smidgen of a reputation over most other "leakers". 

CONTENT 

• FE16 is going to to be "beautiful", with "realistic proportions and movements".
  • So, something like the first minute of the Fates teaser trailer?
• "Infinity" (無限 mugen) - somehow important.
• A new Cipher colour?
  • For whatever it's worth... Unlike with many other "leaks", "Elegy of the Brave" seems to be readily translatable into Cipher.

Phew. Okay, I've got a headache coming on now, so I'm going to go take a bit of a nap. If you're still with me... thanks for putting up with my long-windedness. Regardless, I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on this. Most particularly, about a "August-October release date", vs. "November-December" / "not until 2019". Given the lack of information about FE16 up to now, I'm inclined to agree with those latter predictions. But then, how can we figure out how Cipher plays into all of this? When do you think we'll finally get anything substantial about FE16?

[Metal Flash]

Not quite sure what they mean by "realistic proportions and movements".

Can`t comment on the Cipher stuff as I know nothing about it.

Elegy of the Brave sounds like a really cool subtitle.

Summer sounds like a good time to release the game, even if it sounds unlikely. I feel that if it comes out in summer they would have told us something by now. Even then, I doubt it will be released that soon.

Not sure how infinity will play in to this game.

Anyway, thanks for putting all this info in one place. That was my two cents on it. Hope it helped.

[senior firehood]

So....we could get something around 20 April? im sure i getting some feathers and orbs but pretty sure no information from fe switch.

there are sooo many rumors...fe pirates, fe gothic, fe kung-fu and much more......E3 will end this....and when we all know what fe game it is...we gonna run crazy!!!

 

[familyplayer]

1 hour ago, senior firehood said:

So....we could get something around 20 April? im sure i getting some feathers and orbs but pretty sure no information from fe switch.

there are sooo many rumors...fe pirates, fe gothic, fe kung-fu and much more......E3 will end this....and when we all know what fe game it is...we gonna run crazy!!!

 

It would be funny if we all just become unhyped because we'll cautious if the real announcement is REALLY REAL.

[domilea]

Quote

So....we could get something around 20 April? im sure i getting some feathers and orbs but pretty sure no information from fe switch.

I don't think we're going to get anything at all on April 20. At the very least, nothing of the sort happened last April (https://feheroes.gamepedia.com/Orb_Distribution_2017#April).

If anything, they're going to pull the same stunt as they did last year. PoR!Ike and Alm's first banners dropped in April, merely weeks - or in Ike's case, days - before the first Hero Fest. We already know Leif is coming. Who knows who is going to star on April's second banner. But I'm pretty sure that either way, we're getting another Hero Fest.

That said, regarding Heroes... I may have underestimated how much about FE16 can be predicted from it. Not by much, but since I definitely focused on Cipher last time, I should give attention to what Heroes has to offer. Two things, actually:

First (in terms of "Content"): I noticed something interesting about the Arena. Here are the titles for each tier: (under "Arena Tiers") https://feheroes.gamepedia.com/Arena.

Notice something?

Tiers 1-4 are named after Archanean titles. Tiers 5-7 are Jugdrali. Tiers 8-13 are Elibean. Tier 14 is Magvellian. Tier 15-16 are from Tellius. Tier 17 is from Awakening. Tiers 18-20 are from Fates.

It seems, then, that FE16 should add between 1 to 6 new Arena tiers, named accordingly after titles found within its own canon.

So, beyond just bringing in banners, TTs, and BHBs/GHBs; it seems that FE16 could bring about a content update, too. One that, at the minimum, restructured the Arena a bit.

Now, second (in terms of "Scheduling"): I said earlier that Heroes tends to be less predictable than Cipher, since it doesn't release its schedules more than a month in advance. But I'd forgotten something pretty important.

FEH does have a small degree of predictability: FEH Channels, the announcements for major content updates, seem to occur roughly every 3 months.

Our last FEH Channel was Jan 30, functionally the beginning of February. The ones that were broadcast in English before that that were held Nov 14, 2017 (~2.5 months earlier), and July 27, 2017 (~3.5 months before that). The first one was only in Japanese, and the video for it no longer exists (https://serenesforest.net/2017/04/27/heroes-feh-channels-livestream-breakdown/). That one was on April 27, 2017 (~3 months prior). 

Thus, it seems reasonable to guess that the next FEH Channel should be  roughly 3 months after the last one; so, around the beginning of May. The next one after that would be around the beginning of August. Plus or minus half a month in each case, so we could be talking about each Channel possibly being as late as mid-May and late August, respectively.

Coordinate this with my previous comment:

THE GRAND SUMMARY:

IF

• Cipher: S14 is FE16-themed (highly probable), AND
• Cipher: Either of S13's livestreams in May and June contain any information about S14 (likely?), AND
• Heroes: the FEH Channel occurs for ~May (likely?), AND
• Heroes: doesn't ignore FE16 being revealed (nearly certain), AND
• Neither Cipher nor Heroes reveals FE16 before Nintendo gives FE16 a proper reveal of its own (nearly certain)... 

THEN

• The FE16 reveal should occur before both Cipher's S13 livestreams and the next FEH Channel - roughly, early-to-mid May. 

Additionally:

IF

• Cipher: S14 is FE16-themed (highly probable), AND
• Cipher: S14's release date and associated livestreams are scheduled as normal, for August/September (highly probable?), AND
• Heroes: 2018's 3rd FEH Channel occurs ~August/September, roughly 3 months after the one in spring (likely?), AND
• Heroes: That later FEH Channel uses FE16 as the vehicle for a major content update, including, but not limited to, changes to Arena tiering (iffy), AND
• Neither Cipher nor Heroes reveals anything about FE16 before it has been made available on the Switch (probable?)...

THEN

• FE16 will be released before the S14 livestreams and before the late-summer FEH Channel - roughly, sometime in August (!?) 

I want to sound like I'm being anything less than optimistic with these "predictions", but I have to admit... there are a lot of assumptions here....

[senior firehood]

if they coming up with infos, i really want something new in the online mod, something like.....you choose 3 or 4 heroes and must clean up a map with two  other friends, a map what desingend by other players! Just like this mario maker but better^^.Fates was ok but after long time i get frustration about the hackers.....

 

[Guest Dreamyboi]

Alright well since nobody is saying a thing here goes: Wouldn't it be cool if Kimihiko Fujisaka were the new character artist?

After seeing his art for The Last Story, Terra Battle and Drakengard 3 I think he'd make a fantastic artist for Fire Emblem.

[Ivy Wife Supremacy]

RIP this topic.....it went very far...

Then to more extent the board is pretty much dead with a somewhat occasional reply going completely nowhere.

Edited March 30, 2018 by Blade Lord Lyn

[SMinairo]

4 hours ago, Dreamyboi said:

Alright well since nobody is saying a thing here goes: Wouldn't it be cool if Kimihiko Fujisaka were the new character artist?

After seeing his art for The Last Story, Terra Battle and Drakengard 3 I think he'd make a fantastic artist for Fire Emblem.

He draw Jakob in heroes and Roy in awakening, and they really are fantastic, I'd love to have him as main artist.

[SuperNova125]

4 hours ago, Blade Lord Lyn said:

RIP this topic.....it went very far...

Then to more extent the board is pretty much dead with a somewhat occasional reply going completely nowhere.

If you play heroes and have masked Lucina you must know that "Hope will never die!!".

[kiaxxl]

Honestly, I hope FE16 has a similar thing to Echoes where you can recruit people in villages/towns and whatever (if they do have a more open menu/map). Having your future allies always show up in battle can be a bit limiting and sometimes nonsensical if there's not really a good reason for them to join the player. Finding village boys like Atlas and recruiting him there to help him with his problems was interesting and made sense. 

Anyways, I hope the Cipher clues about S14 means that a May livestream is a thing... I feel like FE16 at E3 will be drowned out by Smash hype. A name + gameplay teaser the month before would be better than having the big reveal, ESPECIALLY if the rumours about Pokemon being 2018 also come true. 

Edited March 30, 2018 by kiaxxl

[Ivy Wife Supremacy]

I'm 100% positive the hint for S14 of cipher is likely a hint to FE16s main theme that's the only thing that intrigues me so many possibilities (just like the hint itself lol)

Edited March 30, 2018 by Blade Lord Lyn

[senior firehood]

öhhhmmm, i dont know this cipher game (it would be cool if it came out as a mobile game).

i think we get a title name at april, pictures at may and at least in e3 a fire emblem that suprise us very good. I tried fire emblem warriors, it is good but it is not like the other emblems.....

man.......i am still angry about the last direct...the last minutes....splatoon charakters.....then darkness......the fire in these eyes ( I STAND UP"FIRE FIRE FIREEE EMBLEM" because i didnt know that smash symbol)....and i swear  i hated mario and zelda soo much after i saw that too in the shadows xD. I hope we get something , this year, then im calmed down.

 

[redlight]

28 minutes ago, senior firehood said:

öhhhmmm, i dont know this cipher game (it would be cool if it came out as a mobile game).

i think we get a title name at april, pictures at may and at least in e3 a fire emblem that suprise us very good. I tried fire emblem warriors, it is good but it is not like the other emblems.....

man.......i am still angry about the last direct...the last minutes....splatoon charakters.....then darkness......the fire in these eyes ( I STAND UP"FIRE FIRE FIREEE EMBLEM" because i didnt know that smash symbol)....and i swear  i hated mario and zelda soo much after i saw that too in the shadows xD. I hope we get something , this year, then im calmed down.

 

Cipher is the Fire Emblem trading card game. I would definitely recommend checking it out here: https://serenesforest.net/wiki/index.php/Fire_Emblem_TCG

It has artwork of a lot of characters throughout several FE games and even has gorgeous artwork of rather unknown characters. I see that you might like Noire so you'll be delighted to find that she also has Cipher artwork

[Guest Dreamyboi]

Welp, the thread is finally dead.

I hope FE Switch is worth the wait.

[familyplayer]

3 hours ago, Dreamyboi said:

Welp, the thread is finally dead.

I hope FE Switch is worth the wait.

I want to be hype, but I've been burned one too many times to get too hyped. I say this yet I'll probably have an orgasm at the first trailer drop.

[Ivy Wife Supremacy]

April has begun....2 months remaining before E3 month aka the judgement day.....

[Chconroy]

Remember, tomorrow is April 1st. Believe nothing you see on the internet, it will almost definitely be fake.

[Guest Dreamyboi]

On 3/31/2018 at 12:17 AM, familyplayer said:

I want to be hype, but I've been burned one too many times to get too hyped. I say this yet I'll probably have an orgasm at the first trailer drop.

April 1st. Y'all ready for more fake leaks?

[The Lazy Tactician]

Oh God I forgot how much I hate this day.

[Book Bro]

Well, we are in FE anniversary month. Let's hope they have something planned.

[Ivy Wife Supremacy]

1 hour ago, Book Bro said:

Well, we are in FE anniversary month. Let's hope they have something planned.

Again doubt it likely more free Heroes orbs crap... plus other IPs show its not guaranteed for news to come during anniversaries....only positive is that off-topic a bit and hate to imply anything heroes for clues but Leif is the last lord in the series currently to be added to Heroes this month so they eventually have to show the Lord/Avatar and others for the next new game.

Edited April 1, 2018 by Blade Lord Lyn

[kiaxxl]

They didn't celebrate the anniversary last for Heroes, IIRC. In fact I don't think they do much for most of their anniversaries, except Pokemon and Mario? 

The gamefaqs "leak" said it was coming on the anniversary, but that's about the only thing I can think of and it's not that reputable 

[senior firehood]

something will happen between now and 31 december 2018. it could be that something happen at the anniversary but 90 %say no, the world hopes that fire emblem reveals at e3. if e3 shows no fire emblem then we are all doomed.........no more coffe...no more pain......just other bad games :(((

 

[Altrosa]

I haven't been here for a while and phew. 

How desperate we are to start theory crafting the announcement... All in time, but I guess Nintendo stating that mainline FE was coming to Switch was a detriment to the hype train. Though, I get why Nintendo's doing that (Metroid got similar treatment), as they needed to pull out every card they had to get Switches sold after the WiiU's failings.

 

If the April 20 thing is possible, I'd soon guess a teaser, then a big announcement with trailers and Treehouse gameplay at E3, but it's more likely the game is being held as a big one for E3 since Smash already got it's teaser. We're going to likely see Smash, Metroid Prime 4, Bayonetta 3, more Octo Expansion, and then like, Octopath Traveler and a bunch more ports.

Unless we see that Switch Animal Crossing (which the 3DS one languished similarly to us now in getting announced WAY too early), the only other show stealer is Pokemon Switch, which is hinted for 2019.

As for "Elegy of the Brave" and "Infinity/Mugen," sounds like reincarnation could be a core theme, to me.