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Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread


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2 hours ago, Green Poet said:

Never mind, just reread. Pika's courier succeeded to BBM N1, failed to me N2, failed to Proto N3. I was wondering if there were any attestable gaps where Pika idled his courier.

It's fair to assume that there's only one antitown player left, and that a player can't visit two players in the same night to send a message + perform a factional kill, right? If both of those are true, I think we shouldn't lynch Pika today, and that Pika should visit Marth every night until he "proves" he can't have taken the kill. Even if notPika!scum idles the kill to encourage a mislynch on Pika, that doesn't change the pace of reaching parity and we all just get more chances to figure things out with night actions.

##Unvote

I have no idea how to process this.  There's no reason to assume that Scum!Pika couldn't send a message and perform the factional kill on the same night, it'd be ridiculously townsided otherwise.

 

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2 hours ago, Green Poet said:

Never mind, just reread. Pika's courier succeeded to BBM N1, failed to me N2, failed to Proto N3. I was wondering if there were any attestable gaps where Pika idled his courier.

It's fair to assume that there's only one antitown player left, and that a player can't visit two players in the same night to send a message + perform a factional kill, right? If both of those are true, I think we shouldn't lynch Pika today, and that Pika should visit Marth every night until he "proves" he can't have taken the kill. Even if notPika!scum idles the kill to encourage a mislynch on Pika, that doesn't change the pace of reaching parity and we all just get more chances to figure things out with night actions.

##Unvote

I have no idea how to process this.  There's no reason to assume that Scum!Pika couldn't send a message and perform the factional kill on the same night, it'd be ridiculously townsided otherwise.

 

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Thanks, new SF.  Anyways, my reads currently are:

1) Mackc2, the basically confirmed townie.  You could WIFOM a reason for him being scum, but it makes no sense for him to hard bus Junk on Day 3 for town cred considering no one was suspicious of him.

2) Marth, the actual confirmed townie.  No problems here.

3) Me.

4) Proto, the probably townie.  The big reason I'm townreading him is that I don't see Scum!Proto letting Junk claim to be roleblocked considering how risky the plan was (there would be easier ways to force a 1v1 with FK if he wanted).

5) Pika, the interactions townie.  Don't see why he wouldn't vote Michelaar as scum, especially considering Mass Roleblock and Persuade is way stronger than whatever Michelaar was.

6) GP, the PoE'd scum.  Significantly reduced activity after D2 and barely any interactions with Junk.  Not strong enough on their own, but I'm pretty confident about all of my other reads, so yeah.  I want Proto to respond to my post first, but after that, this is where my vote is going.

 

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Thanks, new SF.  Anyways, my reads currently are:

1) Mackc2, the basically confirmed townie.  You could WIFOM a reason for him being scum, but it makes no sense for him to hard bus Junk on Day 3 for town cred considering no one was suspicious of him.

2) Marth, the actual confirmed townie.  No problems here.

3) Me.

4) Proto, the probably townie.  The big reason I'm townreading him is that I don't see Scum!Proto letting Junk claim to be roleblocked considering how risky the plan was (there would be easier ways to force a 1v1 with FK if he wanted).

5) Pika, the interactions townie.  Don't see why he wouldn't vote Michelaar as scum, especially considering Mass Roleblock and Persuade is way stronger than whatever Michelaar was.

6) GP, the PoE'd scum.  Significantly reduced activity after D2 and barely any interactions with Junk.  Not strong enough on their own, but I'm pretty confident about all of my other reads, so yeah.  I want Proto to respond to my post first, but after that, this is where my vote is going.

 

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3 hours ago, Green Poet said:

Never mind, just reread. Pika's courier succeeded to BBM N1, failed to me N2, failed to Proto N3. I was wondering if there were any attestable gaps where Pika idled his courier.

It's fair to assume that there's only one antitown player left, and that a player can't visit two players in the same night to send a message + perform a factional kill, right? If both of those are true, I think we shouldn't lynch Pika today, and that Pika should visit Marth every night until he "proves" he can't have taken the kill. Even if notPika!scum idles the kill to encourage a mislynch on Pika, that doesn't change the pace of reaching parity and we all just get more chances to figure things out with night actions.

##Unvote

In general, the Mafia factional kill counts as a separate action, that does not interfere with the Mafia member's regular abilities. Sometimes there are exceptions (e.g. "you may not use this ability while performing the factional kill") but the general case is that the factional kill doesn't enforce any restrictions. So the entire Pika logic fails, because yes, Scum!Pika can almost certainly keep killing while sending messages. 

1 hour ago, Refa said:

1) It's not your reasoning about me that bothered me.  It's more how you were confident enough to make a scumread based off an assumption of how my role worked, which is inconsistent with your prior play of analyzing every possibility.

It wasn't a scumread though. The context of your quote was on a list where I analyzed everybody as a possible Mafia member based on pure role/claim analysis. This included myself even. Here's the rest of the section that you quoted from:

Spoiler
13 hours ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Regarding Mack's concerns, we know there's a Persuader (possibly 1-shot) and a Mass Roleblock (almost certainly 1-shot). The final scum has these abilities as well as whatever abilities they already proved in their claims. Let's consider these possibilities:

- Proto: Sibling (Neighbor) + DayVig after sibling dies. Am I the only one thinks that this is far too OP when you add a 1-shot Persuade + 1-shot Massblock? Also, the Persuade was on the same phase as the dayvig, so Scum!Proto basically suggests that I used two instant-effect actions on the same phase. This sounds ridiculous. Also, this reasoning implies that the mods designed the Neighbor roles such that I could easily shoot Prims on N1 to gain the free vig while axing off a Townie. Which Refa is claiming is exactly what I did. Would the mods really have designed a Neighbor Sibling like this?
- Pika: Courier. Courier is a crap role, I can totally see 1-shot Persuader and 1-shot Mass Roleblock added to it. Maybe even more. Pika also can't be hiding anything as Town, because the claim was done out of pressure from a really heavy wagon.
- Green Poet: Odd night Insomniac + Ascetic. The interesting thing to note is that both of these are passive abilities. They aren't very powerful either, so I can also plausibly see a 1-shot Persuade and 1-shot Massblock added to it.
- Refa: Hijack. The hijack on N1 is essentially confirmed via Mack + Green Poet claims. However, what we don't know is on the restrictions behind it. Refa claimed that it can't be used on consecutive nights, implying that was the only limitation, but it could just as easily have been a 1-shot hijack; Refa planned to use the mass roleblock on N3 regardless, so all he only needs to win before N5 and his claim can't be disproved. Worth noting that his non-consecutive claim was on D3 (not D2), so that may have been when he was sure of unleashing the massblock on N3.
- Mack: Randomizer. I really don't want to consider Scum!Mack, but fine. The track on N1 is confirmed by Green Poet and Refa... well, okay, Mack's Tracker claim was the last one from the trio, so it could have been a quick fabrication, but I doubt that. Still though, as far as roles are concerned, there's no actual confirmation of their abilities. But they did have the opportunity to save Junko on D3 (by claiming Safeguard), but they didn't do that. Which probably isn't inherently Townish, because Junko's dangerous gambit probably forced them to sacrifice Junko as opposed to having them both get lynched once FK flipped. Either way, I doubt Scum!Mack is a thing.

1 hour ago, Refa said:

a) Prims being confirmed town to you read as a scum neighbor, especially since the mods went out of their way to claim that you were not masons.  Looking at what was omitted in his Role PM, I'm fairly sure that you were not confirmed town to him.

Well, I can't really disprove this, but t would be really weird if our roles were not symmetrical. So I am pretty sure I was confirmed Town to Prims, and that Prims knew that something would happen if I died. However, the mods probably set those components to be removed from cardflips, so that the death of one of us will not make the other one a confirmed Townie (unless we both claimed and confirmed Masons before the first death). 

1 hour ago, Refa said:

b) You getting a dayvig when Prims dies.  Boron has made a decent number of mafia games, and I have a hard time she'd approve of something as unbalanced as a Mason Dayvigs variant (if this was just a Shinori game, I'd probably buy it a lot easier though), even assuming that you were not confirmed town to Prims.

To quote from Boron herself, "You don't know what the mods know", so unless we have complete knowledge of all the roles, including their limitations, and including the final scum member's abilities, we can't really make a judgment on how balanced the game is. Also, even if there is a genuine scenario that points to a decision being unbalanced, the mods are still humans that may not have considered such a scenario. 

It may be worth noting that our investigative abilities are limited to a Color Cop that needs two results for anything meaningful (and even then it only receives an XOR result), a Randomizer who has no clue that this one ability is a Tracker and... yeah, that's it, since the Watcher is scum. It doesn't help that the Mafia has a Godfather, a Watcher/Roleblockceptor and possibly an Ascetic. 

1 hour ago, Refa said:

c) Your end of day 2 content.  You were okay with lynching Junk before, so it bothered me (still bothers me) that your reason for not lynching him was to prove FK's role (despite the fact that voting him would have made more sense).  I can get why you voted Bartozio at deadline, what I can't get is why you didn't vote Junk before that. 

I didn't know that others found this weird, tbh. FK declared that they would gain info on Junko, so I didn't want to eliminate a player who we could learn about. FK's info might reveal that Junko is Town, for instance. I was unsure of how the Color Cop worked, and even with the actual role, it was still possible that FK would match Junko up with somebody like me or Marth to reveal Junko's alignment. Given such a situation, I didn't want to lynch either FK, Junko, or Bartozio, since they were all involved in my proposal for Bartozio to empower FK while FK receives information about Junko (and possibly somebody else, depending on how Color Cop worked). I changed my mind about Bartozio after BBM's observation (Empowerer > Safeguard), but I never considered voting for Junko after FK claimed they would retrieve info on him.

1 hour ago, Refa said:

d) Junk probably targeting you on Night 2.  Didn't make any sense to me why he'd target a townie over a scumbuddy.

I think I cleared this up already, though I do agree it would have been safest (which may not necessarily have been the basis of the Mafia's decision priority) from the Mafia's perspective for Junko to watch his scumbuddy, assuming it wasn't Green Poet.

1 hour ago, Refa said:

e) Read my first reply, this still seems inconsistent with your current play.

I assume this is referring to the reply about my role analysis for all five living players (sorry, Marth) as scum. 

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Random thought while I was away: what if the 1-shot persuade and massblocks aren't actually tied to a specific player? Maybe these are abilities granted to the Mafia faction as a whole whenever they lose a member. So they gained a 1-shot persuade after Michelaar died, and unleashed it on D2. They got a 1-shot massblock after Junko died, and unleashed it immediately on N3. I imagine any of the surviving Mafia members can execute these abilities, and it wouldn't interfere with their own regular abilities, or at least not with their factional kill. 

I thought of this because I actually considered implementing something very similar in a Mafia game I was planning once upon a time. And also because the timings seem to match quite well, especially the 1-shot massblock, which would probably be better used asap (more roles blocked + less risk that the bearer of the ability would die before abusing this) if it were an ability that the final scum had from the start. 

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23 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

It wasn't a scumread though. The context of your quote was on a list where I analyzed everybody as a possible Mafia member based on pure role/claim analysis. This included myself even. Here's the rest of the section that you quoted from:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

You're nitpicking my word choice, the point was that in a post dedicated to analyzing every possibility you assumed that my role worked a certain way and were confident enough to say "this is how it is".

23 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Well, I can't really disprove this, but t would be really weird if our roles were not symmetrical. So I am pretty sure I was confirmed Town to Prims, and that Prims knew that something would happen if I died. However, the mods probably set those components to be removed from cardflips, so that the death of one of us will not make the other one a confirmed Townie (unless we both claimed and confirmed Masons before the first death). 

Considering your role name was described as "a mix of neighbor and mason", I doubt you were confirmed town to Prims.  If you were, then the mods were straight up lying when they said you weren't a mason.  Mods have never been hesitant about having masons flip as masons before, so I don't see why they'd be coy about it now.

23 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

To quote from Boron herself, "You don't know what the mods know", so unless we have complete knowledge of all the roles, including their limitations, and including the final scum member's abilities, we can't really make a judgment on how balanced the game is. Also, even if there is a genuine scenario that points to a decision being unbalanced, the mods are still humans that may not have considered such a scenario. 

It may be worth noting that our investigative abilities are limited to a Color Cop that needs two results for anything meaningful (and even then it only receives an XOR result), a Randomizer who has no clue that this one ability is a Tracker and... yeah, that's it, since the Watcher is scum. It doesn't help that the Mafia has a Godfather, a Watcher/Roleblockceptor and possibly an Ascetic.

Fair enough.

23 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

I didn't know that others found this weird, tbh. FK declared that they would gain info on Junko, so I didn't want to eliminate a player who we could learn about. FK's info might reveal that Junko is Town, for instance. I was unsure of how the Color Cop worked, and even with the actual role, it was still possible that FK would match Junko up with somebody like me or Marth to reveal Junko's alignment. Given such a situation, I didn't want to lynch either FK, Junko, or Bartozio, since they were all involved in my proposal for Bartozio to empower FK while FK receives information about Junko (and possibly somebody else, depending on how Color Cop worked). I changed my mind about Bartozio after BBM's observation (Empowerer > Safeguard), but I never considered voting for Junko after FK claimed they would retrieve info on him.

I think I cleared this up already, though I do agree it would have been safest (which may not necessarily have been the basis of the Mafia's decision priority) from the Mafia's perspective for Junko to watch his scumbuddy, assuming it wasn't Green Poet.

Again, fair enough.  

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35 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Random thought while I was away: what if the 1-shot persuade and massblocks aren't actually tied to a specific player? Maybe these are abilities granted to the Mafia faction as a whole whenever they lose a member. So they gained a 1-shot persuade after Michelaar died, and unleashed it on D2. They got a 1-shot massblock after Junko died, and unleashed it immediately on N3. I imagine any of the surviving Mafia members can execute these abilities, and it wouldn't interfere with their own regular abilities, or at least not with their factional kill. 

I thought of this because I actually considered implementing something very similar in a Mafia game I was planning once upon a time. And also because the timings seem to match quite well, especially the 1-shot massblock, which would probably be better used asap (more roles blocked + less risk that the bearer of the ability would die before abusing this) if it were an ability that the final scum had from the start. 

...That'd make a lot of sense, actually, especially if scum has to use the ability during the next cycle.  Persuading someone onto me doesn't make sense normally (why waste a persuade on a town lynch that was going to happen anyways), but if they HAD to use the persuade that day, then it makes a lot more sense (might as well get a turbolynch off instead of hoping that it'll be useful later on in the day).  It'd explain why scum didn't use the mass roleblock on N2 (would have guaranteed FK's action would be unsuccessful AND made him look suspicious).  Anyways

##Vote: Green Poet

I'm pretty confident in this considering I can't see any of the other alive players as scum.

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Votals

Green Poet (2): Oboro-garasu, Refa

Not voting: everyone else

Green Poet is at L-1!

There are still approximately 50 hours left in the day phase. This is code for "stop making us do phase updates at weird times lol"

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31 minutes ago, Refa said:

I have no idea how to process this.  There's no reason to assume that Scum!Pika couldn't send a message and perform the factional kill on the same night, it'd be ridiculously townsided otherwise.

Hmm. I'm pretty sure that was how the factional kill worked in my last scum game, ITTD mafia, but that was quite a few years ago. It seems that's not the case now :|

For me to be scum... there'd have to be a scum shrouder, godfather, and ascetic + masshooker in the same setup as a color cop. The chance that a guilty could correctly be determined in such a setup is unrealistically low imo, but that's something for everyone else to consider. There's little I can do about being a NAI passive role, and I think I claimed it at the most helpful time I could, when someone with an active role was talking about targeting me.

I doubt there's much else I can say to sway everyone's opinion, and today's lynch looks pretty set, so I'm going to talk about tomorrow's lynch instead. I feel pretty certain that the last mafia is between Refa and Pika - I can't see Mack or Proto together facilitating the Junko lynch when we're almost certain to be considering one remaining scum (pretty sure it would be MYLO today otherwise). Proto also cleared Mack in doing this, because it meant that Mack got Junko lynched via the latter not knowing about Mack's actions rather than Mack intentionally catching him. Scum!Mack can't have bussed Junko via "disorganization" because such a tactic still relied on town!Proto being the one to push the case - if it were intentional on scum!Mack's end, he would have had to do the explaining because on the surface it only lends town!Proto towncred otherwise.

I don't think Pika should be cleared based on his end of D1 behavior, either - at the time, scum couldn't have known about the color cop or any other difficulties related to town investigative power, so keeping a godfather alive who was likely to get scanned N1 is potentially more powerful than anything else. This is even likelier if Proto's theory about the massblock being factional is true, as it makes Pika's individual role less comparatively valuable to preserve.

Also, revisiting the use of the persuade - looking back on it now and seeing that both the user and target were scum, the motivation behind it was probably mainly to discourage town from considering scum!Junko, or rather from considering that the people affected by the persuader are scum. By being the one deprived of his vote, Junko's the victim of what looks like an antitown play - in a vacuum, Junko loses his vote, no one explains why, town's hurt by that, and the conventional conclusion is that Junko is town. Simultaneously, someone at a L-2 wagon gets another vote wordlessly stapled to them, Refa, the second person affected by the persuader, and then who's hurt by that? The persuade action actually accomplished nothing in terms of affecting the lynch, but what it did leave behind on the game was the impression that the persuader had victimized two players, seemingly without giving them the chance to speak back or identify whoever had taken away their agency. Then when claims come out later and no one claims persuader, the conventional thought is that the targets of the action aren't scum. Could be a stretch, but I think it's something to consider.

Assuming Marth doesn't count as a living townie in terms of reaching parity, 6 "alive" today means that tomorrow is MYLO, so make it count and good luck.

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1 hour ago, Green Poet said:

For me to be scum... there'd have to be a scum shrouder, godfather, and ascetic + masshooker in the same setup as a color cop. The chance that a guilty could correctly be determined in such a setup is unrealistically low imo, but that's something for everyone else to consider. There's little I can do about being a NAI passive role, and I think I claimed it at the most helpful time I could, when someone with an active role was talking about targeting me.

I don't think Pika should be cleared based on his end of D1 behavior, either - at the time, scum couldn't have known about the color cop or any other difficulties related to town investigative power, so keeping a godfather alive who was likely to get scanned N1 is potentially more powerful than anything else. This is even likelier if Proto's theory about the massblock being factional is true, as it makes Pika's individual role less comparatively valuable to preserve.

Also, revisiting the use of the persuade - looking back on it now and seeing that both the user and target were scum, the motivation behind it was probably mainly to discourage town from considering scum!Junko, or rather from considering that the people affected by the persuader are scum. By being the one deprived of his vote, Junko's the victim of what looks like an antitown play - in a vacuum, Junko loses his vote, no one explains why, town's hurt by that, and the conventional conclusion is that Junko is town. Simultaneously, someone at a L-2 wagon gets another vote wordlessly stapled to them, Refa, the second person affected by the persuader, and then who's hurt by that? The persuade action actually accomplished nothing in terms of affecting the lynch, but what it did leave behind on the game was the impression that the persuader had victimized two players, seemingly without giving them the chance to speak back or identify whoever had taken away their agency. Then when claims come out later and no one claims persuader, the conventional thought is that the targets of the action aren't scum. Could be a stretch, but I think it's something to consider.

Considering there's psuedo masons/innocent child, it makes sense that cop would be weakened as a result.  I don't have any issue with how you claimed, it's not a factor in my read on you.

From Scum!Pika's PoV, why would he refuse to vote his scumbuddy when it'd just make them both look bad on a flip?

FMPOV it's likely that the persuade either couldn't hammer and/or the persuader didn't know that it would announce the vote on thread (leaving a hidden vote on me when FK was contemplating voting me makes sense).  Assuming I'm scum, scum!me would have to value potential town cred over 1) the chance of getting accidentally hammered and 2) wasting a persuade use.

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I'm trying to understand what would be scum Pika's motivations for his actions. Like, Junko was totally fine with Michelaar dying, so why would scum Pika allow himself to get lynched over Mich and ruin a buddy's plan? I'm also wondering about last night; the mass roleblock is useless because the only thing a non-scum!Refa is scared of is Refa himself, and scum!Refa should be only scared of Mack. Would it be possible that Pika Mass RB'd to protect himself from Refa/Mack and not deliver a message to Proto? I'm not sure.

 

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13 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

I'm trying to understand what would be scum Pika's motivations for his actions. Like, Junko was totally fine with Michelaar dying, so why would scum Pika allow himself to get lynched over Mich and ruin a buddy's plan? I'm also wondering about last night; the mass roleblock is useless because the only thing a non-scum!Refa is scared of is Refa himself, and scum!Refa should be only scared of Mack. Would it be possible that Pika Mass RB'd to protect himself from Refa/Mack and not deliver a message to Proto? I'm not sure.

Pika's activity has been legendarily bad, so I doubt Scum!Pika would be interacting/planning with his buddies much.  He didn't even know my claim!  Actually wait, did Junk mention anything about my claim on thread?  If he did, then it's provable that scum didn't just miss it which would imply that Pika is town (I mean, he could have been playing dumb but it didn't read that way to me).  I also don't see why Junk would refuse to vote Pika later on.  Assuming what Proto said about the factional persuade/mass roleblock is true, I doubt Scum!Pika would have a more valuable role than Godfather.  Proto's theory being true would also explain why the mass roleblock was used this late instead of earlier on.

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6 hours ago, Refa said:

You're nitpicking my word choice, the point was that in a post dedicated to analyzing every possibility you assumed that my role worked a certain way and were confident enough to say "this is how it is".

...I don't think I agree with you on who's nitpicking whose word choice here. And I never said "this is how it is". Can you please quote where I said or implied that?

I was analyzing every possibility from a neutral perspective based on information that is essentially confirmed, and how plausible it is for them to have a persuade + massblock on top of that (which I believed were abilities that the last scum had, though I no longer think this). I did not make any assumptions outside of what is already established. 

This is why I labeled myself as being a confirmed Neighbor (Sibling) as opposed to a Mason, because although I am a Mason from my perspective, this would not be confirmed from a neutral perspective. 

And when I came to your role, I noted that the hijack action itself is confirmed, but  I wanted to highlight that the "non-consecutive" claim was not confirmed. I did NOT say "this is how it is" (seriously, where are you getting this from???), but I said "it could just as easily have been a 1-shot hijack". The consequences of claiming "non-consecutive" is that the player would be expected to use the ability every other night, so you would be expected to use the hijack in N3. If the hijack was 1-shot, you would not be able to use it on N3, but if you also carried the massblock (again, assuming this was an inherent ability of the final scum), then you could just use the massblock on N3 to avoid being questioned as to why you didn't hijack. 

Seriously, please read the quote snippet again, and let me know if you still feel like I was making "assumptions" to justify a "scumread". I have no idea how you could be misinterpreting that quote snippet. 

6 hours ago, Refa said:

Considering your role name was described as "a mix of neighbor and mason", I doubt you were confirmed town to Prims.  If you were, then the mods were straight up lying when they said you weren't a mason.  Mods have never been hesitant about having masons flip as masons before, so I don't see why they'd be coy about it now.

I mentioned this before, but my role PM never used the word "mason", nor did it use "neighbor". But I did know that Prims is Town, could communicate privately with him, and the role PM did say that something would happen to me if Prims died. Regular masons don't gain new abilities when their buddies die, so the role name of "sibling" was more appropriate. You claimed that the mods were lying but I am sure the mods never said I was not a mason (please quote if I'm wrong). What they did say is that I was a sibling, and they refused to confirm/deny whether it had mason implications or neighbor implications. 

I seriously can't understand how you are misinterpreting multiple messages in a manner that points me to being scum. If you want to justify your interpretations as reasonable, please at least quote the posts about me making assumptions to justify a scumread, or the mods saying that I was not a mason. Because as far as I can see, it really looks like you're trying hard to twist interpretations to paint me as scum.

4 hours ago, Green Poet said:

Also, revisiting the use of the persuade - looking back on it now and seeing that both the user and target were scum, the motivation behind it was probably mainly to discourage town from considering scum!Junko, or rather from considering that the people affected by the persuader are scum. By being the one deprived of his vote, Junko's the victim of what looks like an antitown play - in a vacuum, Junko loses his vote, no one explains why, town's hurt by that, and the conventional conclusion is that Junko is town. Simultaneously, someone at a L-2 wagon gets another vote wordlessly stapled to them, Refa, the second person affected by the persuader, and then who's hurt by that? The persuade action actually accomplished nothing in terms of affecting the lynch, but what it did leave behind on the game was the impression that the persuader had victimized two players, seemingly without giving them the chance to speak back or identify whoever had taken away their agency. Then when claims come out later and no one claims persuader, the conventional thought is that the targets of the action aren't scum. Could be a stretch, but I think it's something to consider.

Just wanted to say that no, the conventional thought is NOT that the targets of a Mafia Persuader are scum. Mafia Persuaders persuade their scumbuddies and/or persuade players to vote their scumbuddies very often in an attempt to mislead the Town. So much so that being the target or victim of a Mafia persuade is non-alignment indicative. It would be relevant if the persuasion had a significant impact on the lynch, but as I noted way back in D2, the persuasion would not have actually pushed Refa into being lynched. I did state that a competent scum would only persuade on D2 for the purposes of misleading the Town though, which is consistent with Junko's flip, so it no longer indicates anything about Refa.

2 hours ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

I'm trying to understand what would be scum Pika's motivations for his actions. Like, Junko was totally fine with Michelaar dying, so why would scum Pika allow himself to get lynched over Mich and ruin a buddy's plan? I'm also wondering about last night; the mass roleblock is useless because the only thing a non-scum!Refa is scared of is Refa himself, and scum!Refa should be only scared of Mack. Would it be possible that Pika Mass RB'd to protect himself from Refa/Mack and not deliver a message to Proto? I'm not sure.

It's Pika. He's not the most active player, nor the most experienced one. It's not reasonable to assume that Pika's actions were all optimal for their faction.

On that note, if Junko consulted his scumbuddies before he claimed roleblocked, I can totally see Pika being cool with it. Green Poet probably wouldn't be active enough to reply so it could be her too, but Refa definitely wouldn't give the green light. 

Speaking of the message, @Pika_pika42, if our lynch today does not win us the game, please send me a message again tonight about who the last scum is. Thank you.

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3 hours ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

Speaking of the message, @Pika_pika42, if our lynch today does not win us the game, please send me a message again tonight about who the last scum is. Thank you.

@Refa, does this sound okay to you? If you're really paranoid, I have an alternative proposal but it would require a sacrifice (maybe Mack?). But I think this should be fine as it is?

Anyhow, regardless of how you feel about that, I also have a message for @Pika_pika42 and @Mackc2. If we're wrong about Green Poet, there is a possibility that I'll die tonight. If that happens, then I want you to listen to @Magnificence Incarnate on the next Day Phase (D5). Do NOT follow Refa's instructions, no matter how convincing they might be, until and unless @Magnificence Incarnate approves. 

Likewise, for fairness, if Refa dies, then you guys shouldn't follow me until and unless @Magnificence Incarnate approves. 

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3 hours ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

...I don't think I agree with you on who's nitpicking whose word choice here. And I never said "this is how it is". Can you please quote where I said or implied that?

I was analyzing every possibility from a neutral perspective based on information that is essentially confirmed, and how plausible it is for them to have a persuade + massblock on top of that (which I believed were abilities that the last scum had, though I no longer think this). I did not make any assumptions outside of what is already established. 

This is why I labeled myself as being a confirmed Neighbor (Sibling) as opposed to a Mason, because although I am a Mason from my perspective, this would not be confirmed from a neutral perspective. 

And when I came to your role, I noted that the hijack action itself is confirmed, but  I wanted to highlight that the "non-consecutive" claim was not confirmed. I did NOT say "this is how it is" (seriously, where are you getting this from???), but I said "it could just as easily have been a 1-shot hijack". The consequences of claiming "non-consecutive" is that the player would be expected to use the ability every other night, so you would be expected to use the hijack in N3. If the hijack was 1-shot, you would not be able to use it on N3, but if you also carried the massblock (again, assuming this was an inherent ability of the final scum), then you could just use the massblock on N3 to avoid being questioned as to why you didn't hijack. 

Seriously, please read the quote snippet again, and let me know if you still feel like I was making "assumptions" to justify a "scumread". I have no idea how you could be misinterpreting that quote snippet. 

It was an expression, sorry for not being more clear.  Also, I think you are misunderstanding what bothers me here.

Okay, I get that the non consecutive part of my role claim is not established.  I am not bothered by this, or by you saying that my hijack could be 1-shot.  All of that is perfectly valid FYPOV.  What I don't get is how you assumed that my action wouldn't work on N4, since from my understanding that is not usually the case.  I had to ask the mod myself whether or not it would work that way, so it read strange to me that you would assume that.

3 hours ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

I mentioned this before, but my role PM never used the word "mason", nor did it use "neighbor". But I did know that Prims is Town, could communicate privately with him, and the role PM did say that something would happen to me if Prims died. Regular masons don't gain new abilities when their buddies die, so the role name of "sibling" was more appropriate. You claimed that the mods were lying but I am sure the mods never said I was not a mason (please quote if I'm wrong). What they did say is that I was a sibling, and they refused to confirm/deny whether it had mason implications or neighbor implications. 

I seriously can't understand how you are misinterpreting multiple messages in a manner that points me to being scum. If you want to justify your interpretations as reasonable, please at least quote the posts about me making assumptions to justify a scumread, or the mods saying that I was not a mason. Because as far as I can see, it really looks like you're trying hard to twist interpretations to paint me as scum.

No, I mean like...if you guys were functionally masons, it makes no sense that you would not flip as masons (especially considering the fact that either of you could claim mason, which would make labeling a mason role as "siblings" pointless).  Just a question if you don't mind answering: Did Prims ever imply that you were confirmed town to him in your QT?  What did he say?

FTR, this doesn't point towards you being scum.  At worst, it points towards you not being confirmed town.  I'm not scumreading you, but at times it feels like you're going out of your way to not understand where I'm coming from.

14 minutes ago, Oboro-Garasu said:

@Refa, does this sound okay to you? If you're really paranoid, I have an alternative proposal but it would require a sacrifice (maybe Mack?). But I think this should be fine as it is?

Anyhow, regardless of how you feel about that, I also have a message for @Pika_pika42 and @Mackc2. If we're wrong about Green Poet, there is a possibility that I'll die tonight. If that happens, then I want you to listen to @Magnificence Incarnate on the next Day Phase (D5). Do NOT follow Refa's instructions, no matter how convincing they might be, until and unless @Magnificence Incarnate approves. 

Likewise, for fairness, if Refa dies, then you guys shouldn't follow me until and unless @Magnificence Incarnate approves. 

I'm not paranoid about you, otherwise I wouldn't have put GP at L-1.  I'm fine with this proposal.

Fair enough on the second part.

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Just now, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Didn't you claim alt-night hijacker? I didn't know it was non-consecutive.

Nope.  I think my claim was at the beginning of Day 3, if you want to check.

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2 minutes ago, Refa said:

Okay, I get that the non consecutive part of my role claim is not established.  I am not bothered by this, or by you saying that my hijack could be 1-shot.  All of that is perfectly valid FYPOV.  What I don't get is how you assumed that my action wouldn't work on N4, since from my understanding that is not usually the case.  I had to ask the mod myself whether or not it would work that way, so it read strange to me that you would assume that.

Oh, right, yeah, that was, indeed, a poor assumption (I guessed I mixed up "odd-night" with "non-consecutive"), and I later corrected myself (after you pointed it out) that your deadline would be N4 then. 

4 minutes ago, Refa said:

No, I mean like...if you guys were functionally masons, it makes no sense that you would not flip as masons (especially considering the fact that either of you could claim mason, which would make labeling a mason role as "siblings" pointless).  Just a question if you don't mind answering: Did Prims ever imply that you were confirmed town to him in your QT?  What did he say?

As I said earlier, the mods may have decided to slightly nerf the Masons by not revealing them in the cardflip, thus preventing the other sibling from being confirmed when one of them dies. Yes, this would be irrelevant if we claimed together before either of us died, but it doesn't exclude the possibility that the mods felt it would be a worthwhile adjustment nonetheless.

7 minutes ago, Refa said:

Just a question if you don't mind answering: Did Prims ever imply that you were confirmed town to him in your QT?  What did he say?

Okay, I actually read back on the QT (which I haven't opened in a while), and WHOA, Prims explicitly stated that the PM confirmed both of us as Town. He actually thought we might be scumbuddies at first but then he reread the role PM and corrected himself. So yeah, I am now completely sure that Prims was definitely informed of my alignment. 

10 minutes ago, Refa said:

FTR, this doesn't point towards you being scum.  At worst, it points towards you not being confirmed town.  I'm not scumreading you, but at times it feels like you're going out of your way to not understand where I'm coming from.

I can see where you're coming from with respect to the Mason aspect of my role, and I don't think I should be considered as confirmed Town either. 

Anyhow, I'm ready to put Green Poet at L-1, but I kinda want to make sure @Pika_pika42 sees my request first.

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Fair enough on your entire post, Proto.  Don't really have anything specific to comment on, I agree with all of the points that you made.

14 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Just lynch GP already, she's the most likely to be the last scum. I just wish Mack would say something instead of flaking.

Even worse than Rapier 2017.

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