Voting Gauntlet: Enduring Love!

[DarkLordIvy]

2 hours ago, mampfoid said:

Did I miss any multipliers for team Sigurd today? I didn't play much. 

Any ideas when there will be the next one? I'm sitting on flags. 

/Edit: Now. @Hilda @DarkLordIvy @Symphonica

Ah man I woke up barely in time to catch the tail end of that last multiplier. I’ve dropped from rank 51 to 260. 

Sigurd has three multipliers yesterday, including the one right after the gauntlet started

2 minutes ago, Ledrert said:

Did someone have the link about predictions ? I'd like to see them.

Here ya go: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bCUggXvOds0ZHTLLFQWbYJWB14rQo-UdemCsM8OVBdo/htmlview#

[Ledrert]

Just now, DarkLordIvy said:

Here ya go: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bCUggXvOds0ZHTLLFQWbYJWB14rQo-UdemCsM8OVBdo/htmlview#

Thanks !

[Yula]

If Priscilla wins, it was a good round. Will be happy about the feathers. If Tharja wins this round, my hat's off to Team Priscilla, y'all put up a good fight.

[Anacybele]

Has Sigurd winning by about 800 mil! Works for me if that stands. :D

GO SIGGY!

Edited December 7, 2017 by Anacybele

[Arcanite]

Now Catria might not win

what is sadness

[Ice Dragon]

1 hour ago, Arcanite said:

Not always, the predictor predicted Lyn losing to Cam since the DAY before, so I think it still holds water. Thats just me though

From a statistical perspective, that's merely a coincidence. Speeding up or slowing down the acquisition of points by very specific amounts will lead to the same results.

For example, if I have a pendulum that swings at 60 minutes per full swing, but can change, and it's currently on the left side, I can make a prediction that the pendulum will be on the left side exactly 24 hours from now.

However, if the speed that the pendulum swings increases to 57.6 minutes per full swing soon after I make the prediction, the pendulum will still be on the left side exactly 24 hours from now, but the justification for my prediction went out the window, making the fact that I was correct simply a coincidence that the increase in speed was exactly enough to give the same result that that particular point in time.

[Jingle Jangle]

Currently it's a tie between Priscilla and Tharja. And I have to work for the final hours of the round missing some multipliers for Tharja, life can be cruel. 

[Yula]

11 minutes ago, Jingle Jangle said:

Currently it's a tie between Priscilla and Tharja. And I have to work for the final hours of the round missing some multipliers for Tharja, life can be cruel. 

I'll throw some extra flags in to help Tharja. All while praying Katarina pulls off the impossible.

[Rezzy]

2 hours ago, Arcanite said:

Not always, the predictor predicted Lyn losing to Cam since the DAY before, so I think it still holds water. Thats just me though

 

2 hours ago, Vaximillian said:

It’s been before the threshold’s been lowered to 1% though.

Before the 1% cutoff, it was reliable, now the swings are too unpredictable until the very end.

[Zapp Branniglenn]

To all my rando Priscilla teammates with Priscilla as their unit thx thx thx

@Vaximillian Your Sharena is the only thing out here saving my bacon.

Also got a shanna as my rando teammate once. I can see my fellow mercs fight with me again, even if they still haven't switched their unit and STILL don't know how to play this mode.

[EricaofRenais]

Well I was in the top 100 players for Catria but I needed sleep so now I am in the 2000s.  Oh well I am supporting who I like and I will still get a good amount of feathers, so I can't complain.  Shout outs to @Alexmender's Tiki and @ruruo's Seth (I am now going to give my Seth Slaying Edge+ because of how good it works on yours) for being my most common FL units and for really helping out:)  

[Infinite Dreams]

I'm on team Katarina and I haven't spent a single flag yet.  Looks like there will be many more multipliers to come... When should I start unloading them?  Hmm...

[mcsilas]

9 minutes ago, Infinite Dreams said:

I'm on team Katarina and I haven't spent a single flag yet.  Looks like there will be many more multipliers to come... When should I start unloading them?  Hmm...

Definitely from now to the end

i've put in some flags here and then like before i go to sleep in case goes to a draw in the final hours

still only just over rank 10,000 though. People are really using up flags in the multipliers

@Glennstavos do you need help to combat your Priscilla friends? You can add my FC in my sig if you want

[Infinite Dreams]

16 minutes ago, mcsilas said:

Definitely from now to the end

i've put in some flags here and then like before i go to sleep in case goes to a draw in the final hours

still only just over rank 10,000 though. People are really using up flags in the multipliers

@Glennstavos do you need help to combat your Priscilla friends? You can add my FC in my sig if you want

Yeah that's what I'm thinking.  Gonna try to snag myself an army rank in the top 1000.

Edited December 7, 2017 by Infinite Dreams

[GinRei]

35 minutes ago, Rezzy said:

Before the 1% cutoff, it was reliable, now the swings are too unpredictable until the very end.

I feel like the swings could be accounted for just by tweaking the formulae (assuming it doesn't already, since it's protected and I can't check it).  Not perfectly, mind you, but this is the second or third VG using this 1% threshold now.  Might not be able to adjust it until after this one, but I imagine two points of data (weighted towards the second due to increased experience in the format) is at least enough to begin tracking the correlation between "multiplier bonus", "flags used", and "current round".

[NegativeExponents-]

Had to use a Light’s Blessing for the first time due to constantly being paired up with Zephiel. To be fair he wasn’t a bad unit but there’s no way he and my Priscilla were gonna survive a Reinhardt. Also I was not expecting team Tharja to put up a fight but I guess I forgot how popular she is

[Yula]

7 minutes ago, NegativeExponents- said:

Had to use a Light’s Blessing for the first time due to constantly being paired up with Zephiel. To be fair he wasn’t a bad unit but there’s no way he and my Priscilla were gonna survive a Reinhardt. Also I was not expecting team Tharja to put up a fight but I guess I forgot how popular she is

It is a good match. Like I said though, it doesn't matter to me which team wins in our bracket. So long as I get the feathers.

[Alexmender]

1 hour ago, EricaofRenais said:

Well I was in the top 100 players for Catria but I needed sleep so now I am in the 2000s.  Oh well I am supporting who I like and I will still get a good amount of feathers, so I can't complain.  Shout outs to @Alexmender's Tiki and @ruruo's Seth (I am now going to give my Seth Slaying Edge+ because of how good it works on yours) for being my most common FL units and for really helping out:)  

I'm glad my Tiki has been of help, I haven't tested her since the upgrade so I wasn't sure how useful she would be but it seems she's doing pretty good.

For me the units I've gotten the most are @ruruo's Seth (what a beast, he's incredible), a B!Roy and a vanilla Ryoma. Hopefully I'll be able to try out your Innes soon.

[Ice Dragon]

1 hour ago, GinRei said:

I feel like the swings could be accounted for just by tweaking the formulae (assuming it doesn't already, since it's protected and I can't check it).  Not perfectly, mind you, but this is the second or third VG using this 1% threshold now.  Might not be able to adjust it until after this one, but I imagine two points of data (weighted towards the second due to increased experience in the format) is at least enough to begin tracking the correlation between "multiplier bonus", "flags used", and "current round".

No, it's far more difficult than that to predict flag usage because the number of flags used depends not only on the size of the multipler, but also how often multipliers occur, how many multipliers are expected to occur between "now" and the end of the round, and how close the teams' scores are to each other.

There's also the spill-over from players who started a map while a multiplier was active and ended the map after the multiplier ended, which results in the hour after a multiplier having higher apparent flag usage than normal.

[Prince Endriu]

Funny total score

 

 

Edited December 21, 2017 by Prince Endriu

[Ice Dragon]

I swear there is a Brave Lyn for Rhajat to kill in every run I do. Cavalry units make my day.

[Tybrosion]

8 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

I swear there is a Brave Lyn for Rhajat to kill in every run I do. Cavalry units make my day.

Yeah, she sure has been showing up very often for me as well. ......Too bad I'm on Team Catria with at least one idiot who thinks giving me their Catria won't just piss me off, especially whenever I have the aforementioned Brave!Lyn to deal with.

[Arthur97]

7 minutes ago, Tybrosion said:

Yeah, she sure has been showing up very often for me as well. ......Too bad I'm on Team Catria with at least one idiot who thinks giving me their Catria won't just piss me off, especially whenever I have the aforementioned Brave!Lyn to deal with.

Guess I'm sort of lucky. One of my friends has a female Corrin that can tank her pretty well. 

[Ice Dragon]

Looks like Rhajat v. Faye is going to be stuck in Same hell for a bit. Assuming the current rates keep up, Team Rhajat has the advantage since she'll get her last multiplier within the last three hours. Team Faye has the biggest chance of winning with a final-hour rally if Team Rhajat pushes out of Same hell an hour earlier than predicted.

[Strullemia]

I hate how these rounds in the VG always seem to end when I tend to sleep. Right now there's only 5 hours left and Sigurd has more points than Katarina but god knows everything can change in those final hours.