Anyone else think buying orbs increases your chances to get a 5 Star?

[Gebby]

I know this is entirely unfounded, but I really do feel like buying orbs secretly increases your chances for five stars. More often than not, I see people satisfied with their pulls after paying. While I don’t doubt this is probably due to people more likely wanting to share getting something good for than money than something that’s total crap, it has still helped reinforce this belief.

Thoughts? Anyone else feel the same? Or am I just a complete idiot?

[Alkaid]

Honestly, my luck feels like it might even be worse when I pay for orbs, if anything. I'd go with your other explanation, since like you said people who pull good stuff are more likely to bother posting. Which is why the pull thread is such a hall of despair to visit every banner release

[thecrimsonflash]

the more you pull the more chances you have to get a 5*. No your raw chances do not go up but you have more opportunities to get a really good pull. You likely would get more 5*s if you made 300 pulls per banner.

[Ice Dragon]

Not perfectly exact because I'm too lazy to exclude free 3-star, 4-star, and 5-star units and my first 100-odd data points are slightly biased towards 5-stars (because I started counting after I had sent home quite a few units to make space), but my acquisitions records give me 905 5-star units out of 11,559 total, which comes out to a 7.8±0.3% 5-star rate, which is within reason considering I snipe colors rather than make full pulls (3-character banners typically give around a 6.5% base 5-star rate for colors with 1 focus character and around a 10% base 5-star rate for colors with 2 focus characters).

[Vaximillian]

1 hour ago, Alkaid said:

Which is why the pull thread is such a hall of despair to visit every banner release

I don’t even know why I’m still subscribed to it. It increases the concentration if salt in me manyfold.

[Rafiel's Aria]

Honestly? I don't know. Sometimes when I buy orbs, I get extremely lucky. Sometimes I don't get anything at all. Having more orbs in general means you're more likely to get the character you want since you have more chances to get said character. But that being said, there's also a chance you could spend 800 orbs and not get that character at all.  

For the most part, I've been relatively pleased with my spending. However, I remember on one of the TT banners, my f2p orbs got me a perfect +SPD Celica and a +ATK Ephraim on my first pull. A few pulls later, I got a +ATK Gray. ...and then I think I easily spent 80 bucks and for the life of me couldn't get Delthea. And when I finally did get her, she was -ATK. 

The RNG giveth. The RNG taketh away.

[Xenomata]

My luck wildly shifts in the right direction when I actually GIVE UP on getting any 5* units I want and am now just spending orbs to get rid of the pity rate, damn the number of orbs I bought.

But otherwise I don't feel it. I usually have better luck just spending orbs the moment I get 20 for free.

[Cute Chao]

It doesn't make your chances any better for the individual pull but since you have more pulls, you will eventually end up with more 5*s depending upon how much you put into the game. 

It's why I don't regret spending even when my money pulls are poor. My luck isn't usually great and I wouldn't have half the units I wanted if I hadn't spent for them. 

Edited November 26, 2017 by Cute Chao

[carefreejules]

That's usually the general mind set that gacha games build around so tho it sometimes feels like paying for orbs increases your chance, it really is just the game playing with your desire to want to do more pulls to get what you want but in order to do that, you have to make that exchange. That's why people end up spending so much on money on gacha games because they're excited by the prospect of having more immediate funds to roll in order to get a potential jackpot.

It's an endless cycle of either getting a good roll and wanting more, or getting a bad roll and telling yourself that your luck will be better next time so you'll give it another shot. 

[De Geso]

Isn't there a term for people psyching themselves up when they spend money to justify their purchase? Maybe it's that. "If I hadn't bought those orbs I'd have never pulled this 5 star unit!"

Edited November 26, 2017 by YouSquiddinMe

[Cute Chao]

4 hours ago, YouSquiddinMe said:

Isn't there a term for people psyching themselves up when they spend money to justify their purchase? Maybe it's that. "If I hadn't bought those orbs I'd have never pulled this 5 star unit!"

It's not really psyching yourself up. If you spend more money, you get more orbs. More pulls usually equals more 5*s, even though the orbs themselves aren't any more or less lucky. Honestly, I usually find people saying they're less lucky with bought orbs, but it's still superstition. I feel neither more or less lucky with my bought orbs, but I would not have gained many of the seasonal units had I not spent for the sheer fact that my luck wasn't good enough to get them with the pulls I had on free orbs. 

Of course, that changed from banner to banner. 

Then again, if you're buying with the mindset that you definitely will get a 5* because you've bought, that's when there's something worrying. My mindset to buying is that I'm hoping to get X unit, and I also like putting my spare gaming money towards this game since I spend the majority of my time on this, currently ^.^ 

[Alexmender]

4 hours ago, YouSquiddinMe said:

Isn't there a term for people psyching themselves up when they spend money to justify their purchase? Maybe it's that. "If I hadn't bought those orbs I'd have never pulled this 5 star unit!"

The sunk cost fallacy comes to mind but that applies more to high pity rates.

Now for me the first time I spent money I had to shell out $40 just to get a -Atk Julia so no. I've gotten more 5* out of f2p orbs than payed. I remember I spend during the SS banner and got nothing while some f2p orbs during the last day gave me Tana.

Buying orbs increases your chances to get a 5* because you have more orbs (duh) but it's not like payed orbs work any different from f2p orbs, they only give you more chances to roll.

Edited November 26, 2017 by Alexmender

[De Geso]

53 minutes ago, Cute Chao said:

It's not really psyching yourself up. If you spend more money, you get more orbs. More pulls usually equals more 5*s, even though the orbs themselves aren't any more or less lucky. Honestly, I usually find people saying they're less lucky with bought orbs, but it's still superstition. I feel neither more or less lucky with my bought orbs, but I would not have gained many of the seasonal units had I not spent for the sheer fact that my luck wasn't good enough to get them with the pulls I had on free orbs. 

Of course, that changed from banner to banner. 

Then again, if you're buying with the mindset that you definitely will get a 5* because you've bought, that's when there's something worrying. My mindset to buying is that I'm hoping to get X unit, and I also like putting my spare gaming money towards this game since I spend the majority of my time on this, currently ^.^ 

"Psyching yourself up" wasn't the correct term. I basically meant that people deceive themselves into thinking that their spent money was worth it regardless of whether or not it actually was.

[YingofDarkness]

I feel I have worse luck when I spend money, but that is probably just the guilt talking. I've gotten 5 stars I've wanted from first time pulls, spending more then I'd like to admit, and just using the free ones we get. It all depends on how the RNG wants to treat you that day.

[Prince Endriu]

I dont think there is a relation - I got lucky with free orbs and unlucky with paid orbs.

I think there is also a difference between sniping and doing full pulls, you will never know how many 5* units you missed out on when sniping.

Right now I am sitting on 75 orbs and want to use them all when the hero fest banner STARTS - and planning to buy 75 orbs when the hero fest banner ENDS. I will do full pulls only - irregardless of what kind of stones I get - all units are somewhat great (except Xander of course). Curious which summoning session will give more 5* units.

Edited November 27, 2017 by Prince Endriu

[Charmeleonbrah]

Nah.

I have spent $100 so far, and that netted me 3 5-star units; Minerva and H! Nowi on their respective banners, and Raven.  Mind you, I spent $50 on the Halloween banner and only got 1 focus unit, which was definitely not worth it.  In comparison, I summoned 4 PA dancers without spending at all.

I've also pulled 5 star Dierdre, Ephraim, and Nowi as free pulls.

So no, buying has not improved my summoning luck for me.  I've actually had much better luck when not spending.  I've learned my lesson and will not be spending any more money on the game, as much as I'd enjoy getting some characters, like Spring Camilla and Hector.  IMO the $100 wasn't worth it, considering I could have spent that buying PoR or RD, which are better games than FEH. 

I've watched parts of Youtuber summoning videos, and they often don't get the units they want (PM1 seems to pull many -Atk units). 

Edited November 27, 2017 by Charmeleonbrah

[Christactics]

I don't think that's the case, as I get satisfying summons once in a while. I never bought any orbs before. I think it is more in the mentality of the people, meaning that more may be inclined to post whenever they get a satisfying 5* pull. Also, it does increase the odds for a 5* when you have more orbs to spend, which means you have more chances?

Edited November 27, 2017 by Christactics

[BANRYU]

Not really. I've been predominantly F2P since the start, and on the two occasions when I bought orbs with money, it didn't get me anything noteworthy whatsoever (though granted, I didn't spend more than like 20-30 USD either time). 

The only reason I'm considering it today is in a desperate bid to grab Halloween Henry before he's gone :\

Edited November 27, 2017 by BANRYU

[sirmola]

DOn't japanese laws make it illegal to do things that edit the displayed probabilities without saying so?

[Infinite Dreams]

As someone who has spent a lot of money on this game, nope. 

Also, yeah, I agree that people tend to post their pulls more often when they're good.  

[Elise Navidad]

I'm not sure. It would be a jerk move if that was true, I guess. I'm f2p, so yeah, I'm no help.

[thecrimsonflash]

3 hours ago, Elise Navidad said:

I'm not sure. It would be a jerk move if that was true, I guess. I'm f2p, so yeah, I'm no help.

disgusting freeloader!

Is what I would say but I'm a leech too.

[eclipse]

On 11/27/2017 at 11:20 AM, Infinite Dreams said:

As someone who has spent a lot of money on this game, nope. 

Also, yeah, I agree that people tend to post their pulls more often when they're good.  

Yep.

I'm crazy enough to post all my pulls, ranging from amazing to probability-defying bad.  I'm also keeping track of the number of units I pull, as well as the number of 5* units I've obtained.  It makes me feel a little better when I run into a spot of bad luck.

Oh, right, topic.  Paying for orbs means that you get more chances to pull, so you'll most likely end up with a bigger roster.  No need to massage the pull rates!

[Sandman83]

Personally, I think it feels like after paying for orbs you will have a higher chance for 5 star character.
But after a while you will have a lower chance for a while. For example a little while back I bought 3 orbs and got a lot of stuff on that banner.
Then I collected over 600 orbs and put all of them into summer refreshers banner to try to get the blue archer lyn.
I got 1 blue archer lyn and 2 Ursula and blue archer lyn was attack minus. That's it.
My luck was literally horrible.
So I'm not sure paying for orbs is really a good thing in the long run. Might be better to always pay for them or never pay for them ever.

[Captain Karnage]

That's a necro