Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[Michelaar]

31 minutes ago, Shinori said:

Those 3?

So me Baldick and sully are your only reads?  I'm confused. Who is scum Mich?

What I just said? There is nothing to be confused about is there? I scumread you three, I am null- or townreading the rest.

[Shinori]

2 hours ago, Michelaar said:

Wow guys. Sorry about this. The last part of day 1, I was kinda busy with family matters that are private for the most part, I may have been lurking a bit but I definitly didn't feel like posting/Didn't have the time. And this day only started for 6 hours. Come on guys. Timezones DO in fact, exist. No need to sub me out quite yet, though if it's getting too heated with my family, I am going to have to ask SB to sub me out.

Now, I struggle to find the reason why i'm scum other than ''You're inactive'', which is kinda stupid. Quote saying that I should die now is kind of annoying. Is that how you usually play mafia games? 

 

Now for my reads. if Shinori still suspects me for the BS reason he gave yesterday then he is high on my list. It is pretty much a ''You think i'm scum? Nonsense! You're the scum'' vote. 

I am actually kind of scumreading Sully here. I feel like he puts in.. minimal effort, and kind of lifts on other player to explain his cases. And he mostly suspects people, if other people suspect them. His cases don't seem particularly strong either. I see people often have to call him out for him to explain his reasons, because they don't make a lot of sense.

From what i've read, the baldrick cases actually make a lot of sense, but i'm personally not really feeling it at the moment since I myself voted LG too yesterday, and I think that's the primary reason people vote him? Forgive me if I'm wrong, it's 8 in the morning.

 

## Vote: Sully

Bolded the 3 important parts. Scum reading me sully and the cases on Baldrick make sense but you aren't really feeling it?  That would imply that you actually don't feel like Baldrick should be lynched or is scum. I quesion you scum reading him yet not feeling the votes on him, this is really weird to me.

1 hour ago, Michelaar said:

If you have given up then you're still on my list, but not top priority.

This is poor reasoning for even raising me up higher or lower and is literally just a straight OMGUS.

40 minutes ago, Michelaar said:

I still don't like your overly aggresive play (in my eyes), which really isn't neccesary. Yeah, the main argument for Baldrick is that he voted LG or something? I don't really agree and can apply to anyone if that's your way of logic. I don't currently have scum reads outside those 3.

Not really understanding the case on him. Care to explain to me?

You don't like my overly aggresive play? what about it is overly aggressive? Is it the mannerisms in which I'm speaking or the way I attempt to question logic that is poor?  Also in this post you really seem to not understand why baldrick has votes on him while yet saying you understand and like the cases on him while also at the same time saying you're scumreading him.  This is the most backwards logic I've heard this entire thread. Like Why are you scum reading him if you aren't feeling the votes on him? Why is he scum to you then?  I really don't understand any of this logic you have posted here. 

Just now, Michelaar said:

What I just said? There is nothing to be confused about is there? I scumread you three, I am null- or townreading the rest.

There is plenty to be confused about and I think this actually needs a lot of answers.

Why is Baldrick scum? If you understand the cases on him why do you seem confused about why people are voting him? If you are scumreading him then why are you 'not feeling it' for the people that are voting him?

##Vote: Michelaar

[Michelaar]

You know, i'm so done with this conversation right now. 

[Shinori]

Well when you decide to answer the questions regarding Baldrick and your thoughts/opinions of him let me know because your last few posts have been filled with inconsistencies regarding that.

[SB.]

Votals 2.2

Mackc2 (4): Bartozio, Refa, SullyMcGully, Via
Baldrick (3): BBM, Marth, Mackc2
Bartozio (1): kirsche
Shinori (1): Baldrick
SullyMcGully (1): Michelaar
Michelaar (1): Shinori

With 11 alive, it takes 4 to lynch and 8 to hammer. Phase ends in 61 hours and 25 minutes.

Edited December 3, 2017 by SB.

[Mackc2]

I want to highlight that Baldrick did basically nothing before the Gaius sub. He stayed solidly parked on Ken while making non comments (https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/79451-persona-5-mafia-day-2/&do=findComment&comment=5066922)

He said he was suspicious of Marth and Shinori yet I can't find the start of his suspicions of Marth and his suspicions on Shinori are suspiciously timed, I want to draw attention to the area around this post https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/79451-persona-5-mafia-day-2/&do=findComment&comment=5067312. To start Shinori makes the post and the vote swap he supposedly finds sus but his next post is him complaining something about marth in response to Shinori. But then Michalaar makes a comment about how suspiciously timed shinoris vote swap was and with his very next post he says, "I agree with Michelaar." asks Prims a question and disappears and he never really adds anything to the read past that, and that isn't really the only time he just goes along with something someone else said. 

Lets put that aside for a second and say he truly suspects Shinori or Math, well I can't see that because he doesn't put any pressure on either of them, most of the time he just passively mentions he finds them sus, while keeping his vote parked on Ken and after the Gaius sub he does change his vote to Marth, doesn't really do anything with it, doesn't push Marth to talk just puts his vote there and moves it to Shinori in his next post before another dissapearing act, coming back to say something and go back to his Ken park. 

I want to ask 
@Bartozio @Refa @Quote
I can understand why you find me scummy but what makes me more scummy than Baldrick? 

 

[Bartozio]

9 hours ago, Mackc2 said:

So before I go back and read the thread I wanted to say something about Michelaar, he should not be given a free pass just because of how he acts because acting like mafia all the time doesn't stop him from actually being mafia. Only problem is that conventional tests and analysis of plays don't work well on him because he just ends up looking scummy, its annoying me because if he's mafia he could just be cruising off his reputation, Its unlikely but the thought still annoys me and if anyone has a method they think would work they should try it.

I really think people are missunderstanding the mich meta here. the idea isn't that he's just always not posting much, it's that it's nothing when he's scum and little when he's town.

Basicly, he never posts a lot, but there's still a clear difference between his previous scum and town games.
I'm mostly posting this to at least clearify the meta to some people, because I personally don't like it to much. The scum games were his first games on this forum and the town games the later ones, so it's possible he's just getting better at the game. I think I talked about this to Marth in Rein's game as well (I know I talked about it to someone, think it was Marth). Also, do keep in mind that Michelaar was convinced not having scumreads isn't a bad thing in his scum games and changed his mind on this afterwards.

I don't get the feeling he's scum in this game, but I do agree mich shouldn't get a free pass just because he has opinions in the early game. Refa mentioned it would be a very big change in just a couple of games, which I can agree with. Mich is actually pushing suspisions and votes on people, and interacting with the town decently. He's not obv town to me for this, but I feel he's more likely town then scum.

Hope this helps people with reading Michelaar a little...

[Bluedoom]

I agree with your analysis, but I  gotta say, his play feels very similar to kemono friends mafia.

[Bartozio]

@Mackc2 Balderick's early content was good, while you didn't really have any good content D1? Also, what are your current thoughts on the game, outside of scumreading Balderick and being frustrated by mich?

@Michelaar I would also like to hear you clear up your current thoughts on Balderick, since what you currently posted is really confusing me.

@Shinori Since you're apparently done with your series (congratz btw), Balderick case?

I do admit I might've been going a bit to easy on Balderick for his early game content, so I'll give him a read up, along with BBM now. Why did I like mafia agian?

[SullyMcGully]

I'm still not feeling Michelaar. He really seems like he isn't paying much attention, but he's at least trying to make reads. His attitude is way too reactive right now and of course it makes him look scummy but I think he's really just zoned out. Like, he doesn't know what the case on Mack is and he doesn't seem to understand the one on Baldrick, and then his primary suspects are me, and Shinori (with Baldrick, kinda just sitting there without a good explanation) but I don't think his cases on either of us are very good. That doesn't seem scummy to me though, compared to Michelaar's Kemono Friends play.

Mack, I'll just say it: your case on Baldrick sucks. Your posts are long-winded but they contain very little original material. It looks like you're finding different ways of making the same cases everybody else has made. There's a little bit of new material in there, but not enough to merit how long your posts are. So you're basically sheeping, but of course if you just said "I'm sheeping everyone on Baldrick" that would seem scummy coming from someone under suspicion. 

@Mack I'll ask you again: why did you think my case on you day 1 was good?

I'm still sold on this idea of a Baldrick-Mack scum team. Even though Mack is now on the Baldrick wagon, isn't that what you would expect when they're under suspicion of working together? Nothing like this happened in the Kemono Friends game, so I don't really know how scum usually acts about this kind of thing.

@ experienced players: when two of the scum are suspected of being on a team together, how do they usually react to throw off suspicion without lynching a teammate?

@ Michelaar your case on me uses a lot of the same logic that BBM used in his case on me D1. A lot has changed since then, care to provide an example of how I am currently "lift(ing) on other player(s) to explain (my) cases"?

[Mackc2]

Recently I have been thinking about Prims role,  whether he was baiting the mafia with his claim refusal or if he actually had a power role is something I am curious about but thats irrelevant at this point in time.

I have also realised that I have basically forgotten Kirsche exists, its probably not a good thing that it feels to me like they have almost no presence. 
I'm not sure to feel about Shinori, I guess I'm townreading them for now because Balderick is trying so hard to get them lynched, but it feels like those two are just arguing with eachother 
Michelaar is whatever, I'll admit you have a good point he is more active than he was during the Heroes Mafia so I guess I will back off there.
Still on the fence about Marth, feels like he gets people talking but doesn't really talk much about his own reads.
Refa hasn't made a post since my first post of the day and I still haven't really analysed the early day 2 stuff so I really have no clue there.

also @Bartozio I have no clue what you are asking me, are you calling me out on hypocrisy or something? 
Right now Balderick is far and away my strongest scum read so I have just been pushing that 
 

[Bartozio]

The first question was more of a retorical response to your question. The second one was a real question, which you answered.

[Mackc2]

@SullyMcGully I thought your case was good in the sense it was unique and showed you where trying to scumhunt and unlike some of the more experienced people I didn't find it that far fetched. 

I will agree that I didn't have a good D1 but I don't agree that Balderick had a good D1 

I'm really hating my time zone right now, it feels like all the conversation happens when I'm asleep and I'm just left with too much to comment on. Now if you don't mind its 1:00am right now and I could really use some shut eye  

[Zkirsche]

Have very little time right now (will be back prob in 3 hours), but a few things:

@Bartozio: Thanks to Refa's helpful links I noticed you criticised Gaius' lack of contribution to the thread, but what do you think of his actual cases, for example, Sully and Prims.

Quote

<Marth>: So I feel like his play  isn't really matching whatever that I've read of the two games mentioned above.  Like I think the Sully vote later during D1 is good even though it is late. Obviously I agree with the Baldrick vote today, but also, I kinda don't see scum arguing against the Prims wagon at deadline when a)There were valid concerns about his play b)You're getting an easy mislynch on a good player. Thoughts?

As BBM's buddy this game I don't know if he'd do the same thing this game. It was a mistake to bus Earlio like that early and he kinda got caught out in the end for our hubris. I think claiming he is likely town because he didn't bus a buddy (or didn't bus a buddy successfully potentially, don't think Ken Masters was his main focus last phase) is a bit of a stretch surely.

I wouldn't say Prims was an easy mislynch? Before myself there wasn't really a lot of pressure on him and his reaction was fierce, passionate, and just about good enough (in terms of making reads).

Quote

<BBM>: It would have been perfectly fine to just say "gonna vote Gaius to get the lynch" or something. 

Then why wouldn't he say that? Scum aren't gonna have a tough time finding a lazy way of joining on the Gaius Masters wagon.

[Michelaar]

I guess I don't really understand the logic of the Baldrick case at all, so i'm going to back out of that one completely. Sully, I think you're basically using other people's arguments. I have never seen you think something on your own. It's always another person's case you're going along with. On day 1, the main one I remember is my and Bart's case, but I remember you heavily relied on cases other than that one as well. Correct me if i'm wrong by all means

[Shinori]

8 minutes ago, Michelaar said:

I guess I don't really understand the logic of the Baldrick case at all, so i'm going to back out of that one completely. Sully, I think you're basically using other people's arguments. I have never seen you think something on your own. It's always another person's case you're going along with. On day 1, the main one I remember is my and Bart's case, but I remember you heavily relied on cases other than that one as well. Correct me if i'm wrong by all means

Would you mind answering my questions previously.  Because now you have legitimately gone back on what you've said.  Previously you said the cases made a lot of sense yet now you say you don't understand them at all while at the same time scum reading him.

 

Just woke up, morning.

[SullyMcGully]

@Michelaar

Yes, I did sheep you and Bart on the Shinori case. But there were other cases on D1 where I created my own arguments: my first Mack case, my old BBM case, and my prims case (while I didn't vote until after kirsche and Gaius, I made my case beforehand). You can call me out on some of my logic being poor, I've already admitted to that. But saying I'm only using other people's arguments makes it all the more clear to me that you haven't really been reading very closely. 

What is it about the Baldrick case that you aren't understanding, anyway? It's a major wagon at the moment, you might want to form a stronger opinion on it. If you think it's illogical, mind explaining why?

[Michelaar]

12 minutes ago, SullyMcGully said:

@Michelaar

Yes, I did sheep you and Bart on the Shinori case. But there were other cases on D1 where I created my own arguments: my first Mack case, my old BBM case, and my prims case (while I didn't vote until after kirsche and Gaius, I made my case beforehand). You can call me out on some of my logic being poor, I've already admitted to that. But saying I'm only using other people's arguments makes it all the more clear to me that you haven't really been reading very closely. 

What is it about the Baldrick case that you aren't understanding, anyway? It's a major wagon at the moment, you might want to form a stronger opinion on it. If you think it's illogical, mind explaining why?

@Shinori wut? Can a guy change his mind or what

And for you Sully. I guess I can see your point. I don't think i've said the Baldrick case is illogical, did you ever read that? I said I am not going to follow the case since I don't really have an idea why he's being bandwagoned. Sorry, but I don't feel like thinking very hard on this one. You being scum makes a lot of sense in my head. Your reads have been pretty weak, you are playing very defensively, this whole time (Which is not all bad, but is a symptom I had as well when I was mafia in my first few games) And i'm just not really feeling other cases besides the Shinori one. But I don't have good arguments for that one either. 

[SullyMcGully]

Okay. That's all fair. Just try and make sure you're fully engaged; while you may not be scum, it still can be annoying if it seems like your posts aren't well-informed.

[Shinori]

No. I'm sorry you literally cannot just post a bunch of inconsistencies, refuse to answer my questions, come back and say you changed your mind. ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

 

I should say, changing your mind is fine but I feel you still need to answer the questions I asked last night which should be at a point that you hadn't changed your mind.  Alternatively what made you change your mind?  You said multiple times you were scumreading him yet didn't understand the cases against him(while saying you thought they had merit initially) so what was YOUR specific reason for scumreading him last night?

[Refa]

16 hours ago, Baldrick said:

@Refa;

Already mentioned how I saw Ken was around, so he was active lurking without posting (inactive lurking?) and that I dismissed Gaius' content because I only had time to skim it.

tbh only my Marth and Shinori reads are any good. here and my first post of day 2 are where I summarise them.

Fair enough, but that wasn't your reasoning for most of the day AND people already talked about how that wasn't alignment indicative with no comment from you.  FMPOV even if you skipped his content, there'd be no reason to be so dismissive towards it.

My problem with your cases isn't that the logic in them is bad, but that you're only analyzing one to two posts instead of their entire game.  Obviously scum won't show scum intent in every post, but I don't think that's an excuse for them being so barren.

16 hours ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

@Refa Thoughts on Quote?

Honestly, I don't know.  Nothing they've posted has bothered me so far is my stance.  I like their explanations for their votes past ED1.

16 hours ago, BBM said:

These are the suspicious things Mack has done IMO:

1) His Shinori unvote while still finding him scummy is weird but he says in that post that he was unvoting because Shinori was at L-1. This was very wrong because Shinori wasn't anywhere close to being lynched, but why would he do this as scum and make more work for himself wrt having to read more people and stuff? I don't see the scum intent unless Shinori is his buddy. 

2) His post where he was just like "man I'm too lazy to read more so I'm just going to vote Ken since I've been finding him scummy" is bad obviously but also an understandable sentiment I think. I would probably do the same and forgo rereading if I weren't a masochist.

3) In general I think in his past few games as town he's been around more often and posting more frequently even when he didn't really have as many opinions. Here his posting is a lot more infrequent.

2 and 3 aren't great but they're not enough for me to lynch him on given that his other posts have been good I think. 1 isn't something I'd vote on without Shinori's flip. A Baldrick/Mack/Shinori scumteam is very neat but I'd want to lynch the other two first.

1) The problem is he never actually did more work for himself WRT having to read people and stuff, so this is a moot potin.

2) It wouldn't be bad if he had an established Ken M. scumread, but I don't remember ever seeing one from him.

3) I don't think that's a particularly great reason to vote him either, yeah.

16 hours ago, Mackc2 said:

So before I go back and read the thread I wanted to say something about Michelaar, he should not be given a free pass just because of how he acts because acting like mafia all the time doesn't stop him from actually being mafia. Only problem is that conventional tests and analysis of plays don't work well on him because he just ends up looking scummy, its annoying me because if he's mafia he could just be cruising off his reputation, Its unlikely but the thought still annoys me and if anyone has a method they think would work they should try it.

This bothers me becaus-

14 hours ago, BBM said:

do you even think Michelaar is scum? here you're just trying to like spread the idea that he could be scum. reads like scum being salty that someone else is getting a pass despite playing badly

Yeah, this.

15 hours ago, Mackc2 said:

So first read was on Balderick, general impressions is they where all bark and no bite, generally their posts where on the scarser side, the talk on almost every page indicating they check the page often but they make an average of about 1-2 posts per page, not too bad but not fantastic. So multiple complaints firstly, their votes just seem all over the place and have little to do with what they say their suspicions are. Namely they vote park on Ken for the whole beginning while talking about how suspicious they find Shinori and Marth, mostly Marth. I think their case on Shinori was mostly that the vote change was sus (I don't really agree) and maybe I am just stupid or maybe I missed it but I don't know what their problem with marth was besides that it felt like he was disinterested (something Balderick admitted he felt himself). There is also something about the way they treat the Ken Masters sub that rubs me the wrong way, they swap their vote off him before he even says anything despite the fact that "He was most suspicious of Ken." swapping the player doesn't swap the role, if Ken is suspicious then Gaius is just as suspicious, yet apparently he starts from square one? I don't know what you where trying to pull but town would have thought of the role not the player. 
Almost forgot one last thing, it felt that they where ignoring the general goings on in the game and tunnelling Shinori, Marth and Ken. 

##Vote: Balderick

Also @Refa there was something I was curious about, when the guy not playing posted you mentioned SB might sub him in as a hidden player, are hidden players a common thing, and what are they?

This scum read seems really padded to me.  Making an average of 1-2 posts per page is not scummy, no matter how much he's been checking the page.  I don't see how his votes have been all over the place, either.  I agree that the vote park on Ken is bad, and I don't agree that his reasoning for voting Shinori/Marth was bad, just really limited.  Him swapping his vote off of Ken isn't scummy because it doesn't benefit him as scum to give Town!LG time to breathe.  It's something he could do as scum, but it doesn't make him scum.  Fair enough on your last point.

Pretty sure the OP mentions that there are no hidden players, but they're players who don't show up on the player list.

8 hours ago, Mackc2 said:

I want to highlight that Baldrick did basically nothing before the Gaius sub. He stayed solidly parked on Ken while making non comments (https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/79451-persona-5-mafia-day-2/&do=findComment&comment=5066922)

He said he was suspicious of Marth and Shinori yet I can't find the start of his suspicions of Marth and his suspicions on Shinori are suspiciously timed, I want to draw attention to the area around this post https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/79451-persona-5-mafia-day-2/&do=findComment&comment=5067312. To start Shinori makes the post and the vote swap he supposedly finds sus but his next post is him complaining something about marth in response to Shinori. But then Michalaar makes a comment about how suspiciously timed shinoris vote swap was and with his very next post he says, "I agree with Michelaar." asks Prims a question and disappears and he never really adds anything to the read past that, and that isn't really the only time he just goes along with something someone else said. 

Lets put that aside for a second and say he truly suspects Shinori or Math, well I can't see that because he doesn't put any pressure on either of them, most of the time he just passively mentions he finds them sus, while keeping his vote parked on Ken and after the Gaius sub he does change his vote to Marth, doesn't really do anything with it, doesn't push Marth to talk just puts his vote there and moves it to Shinori in his next post before another dissapearing act, coming back to say something and go back to his Ken park. 

I want to ask 
@Bartozio @Refa @Quote
I can understand why you find me scummy but what makes me more scummy than Baldrick? 

I don't get how the first linked post makes him scum, and I really don't get your logic for the second post.

I agree with the third paragraph, that's mainly why I've been scumreading him in the first place.

I have more doubts on my issues with him than I do with my issues on you.  Additionally, his responses to me have been mostly fine, whereas most of your posts today have made me feel worse about your slot.  You also have not adequately responded to peoples' issues with you IMO.  Also I don't like your case on Baldrick, because it feels like you're tunneling in on him and viewing this as a 1v1 even though that is not the case.  Reminds me of how I played my first scum game, really.

[Refa]

To elaborate, my main problem with Baldrick (besides already stated issues) is that his posts feel really...safe.  His responses have always been sparse and while they do make me feel better about him, there's nothing that makes me think "wow, this guy is town".

[BBM]

@kirsche- it's not so much "so why wouldn't scum say that" as what Baldrick actually did say, which was stuff that wasn't true, and then when pressured about it, he said that he felt like he had to justify the vote more. That reads like he was overly self-conscious about putting down a sparse vote to me.

@Refa- I think 1 is still important because even if he didn't actually do the rereading, he created that expectation for other people, which is still creating a problem where none needed to exist. wrt 2 he didn't directly push Ken but he did say several times that he found Ken scummy but I'm too lazy to go find the posts now. 3 is weak but tbh before his latest string of posts on D2 that's what made me most uncomfortable about him. I agree with your analysis of his recent Baldrick vote though.

@Shinori- I think you're correct about the inconsistencies in Mich's posts. I don't think his initial post was inconsistent wrt Baldrick because you can see the case while still just not feeling them as scum, but then Michelaar's later posts where he switched to saying that the Baldrick votes actually were bad and he didn't get the logic are inconsistent. However, there's only scum intent if Baldrick is also scum.

the rest of the back-and-forth between the two reads like them comparing the size of their dicks but with OMGUSes and trying to argue the other person's is bigger instead of their own

[Refa]

25 minutes ago, BBM said:

the rest of the back-and-forth between the two reads like them comparing the size of their dicks but with OMGUSes and trying to argue the other person's is bigger instead of their own

lmao

[Bartozio]

Alright, read up on Balderick for now.
I feel like he does respond to what is happening in the thread and engages in discussion with people, which is good. The main thing is that he's focussing on a few people he determines are sus (dangerous, because if people manage to escape the early game from him, he won't catch them until it's way to late), and he isn't really using his vote to pressure people. It also seems that his current reads are to a good degree based around the idea of his main suspect, shinori, being scum (as otherwise I should be the only person thinking I'm less scummy then Refa outside of role shenanigans).

I can see this being a different mindset (although one that benefits scum), but what bothers me most is him unvoting LG near the end of the phase.

Seriously @Baldrick, why? I mean, you have given two explanations (which is weird in it's own right), but I find both very odd.

1. In the post you decide to look for other reads, you mention not wanting to lynch the slot now that it has gotten subbed. Basicly going to echo Mack here, if you were so sure Ken was scum that you felt no need to change your vote most of the day phase or actively push other reads, why would this change after a sub?

2. In a response to Mack you mention just wanting to persue other reads. This is good and all, but why didn't you use your vote to push these cases earlier on again? And more importantly, why would you even bother thinking about which case is more likely to receive support if you were planning to put your vote back on LG to lynch him anyway?

##Unvote

##Vote: Baldrick

Mack is far from of the hook, but I really want to hear an explanation here first.