Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[Baldrick]

I'll admit that I've lost motivation as the day goes on, because a Ken lynch seems inevitable to me based on how D1 typically goes, and since he's not around I can't make any progress.

But, if he's getting a sub I wouldn't really want to lynch them before they acclimatise. So @ people who are willing to lynch him now, would you prefer somebody subs in? If so, I'll pursue other options because I can't guarantee I'll be around at deadline.

[Prims]

I would rather just lynch the slot and not worry about it. I don't feel strongly about any other reads atm.

[Percivalé]

Big Bad Mafia

[BBM]

gonna respond to cases one by one here, in order they were posted, so it's gonna be a string of posts defending myself first and then I'll give my thoughts on the posts made by other people in the past few pages

@Sully- Firstly, you don't mention that I was scumreading Marth for almost half the phase, which is again part of what makes me think that you're willfully ignoring parts of my posts because not only did I have several posts talking about scumreading Marth (here, here, here), I had another exchange of posts with Prims and Shinori talking about them also missing my scumread on Marth (here, here).

Fair enough on the difference between active lurking as scum vs being completely not present, and different standards for me as an experienced player vs Ken. I just don't understand how it's possible to read my posts and come away with the opinion that I'm doing the former or that I'm not making unique contributions when I've been the first person to (seriously) vote both Mack and Marth. I also have no idea what you're talking about when you say I'm not taking sides; I haven't been waffling on anyone except Shinori. That's one post about one person, you can't use that to extrapolate an opinion about my entire play.

Can you give more than one example of me waffling on someone? This is the other part of what I dislike about your vote on me- it makes sweeping generalizations about my play while not giving any concrete examples.

The entire bit about me being scummy for voting you because you're new is bad because you never used this line of reasoning about the other experienced people voting you. Why is it suspicious for me specifically to be calling you scummy vs them? Not to mention, if I just wanted to score an easy lynch against a new player I could have voted you way earlier near the beginning of the phase when Refa was pushing you. I said at that time that you not having reads that early into the game wasn't suspicious; my vote on you is based on your play later into the phase once you started posting more content.

It's not that what you said about Ken is wrong, it's just that it's super obvious and doesn't need to be restated. If people have weak reads they're more likely to be scum and if they have good reads they're more likely to be town, regardless of the context. That's a given.

[Refa]

2 hours ago, Quote said:

where did refa go anyway

i was playing MEGA MAN X4 with friends now i'm reading the two pages

[BBM]

next, kirsche

It's not that scum can't fake townreads; it's that they don't really have much of an incentive to do so (beyond to blend in since scumreading everyone would be suspicious) because it makes it harder to justify voting those people later on. This is especially the case if you're townreading and defending people who could easily be lynched, as Marth was, except for the bit on Baldrick. Add to that that my read on Marth was largely lazy scum and I realized that him townreading lots of people isn't really consistent with that. This is also partially a meta thing; I don't have time to go read past games to link posts for you but I think Marth is more likely to defend people as town than scum. Also, Marth made a ton of votes between my vote against him and my next post or two where I unvoted him; I think more than he'd made in the game total to that point. Those posts gave me more townvibes than scumvibes, so even if it was a relatively quick unvote time-wise, it wasn't a quick unvote post-wise. 

I did say originally Ken/Shinori/Baldrick, but the posts that I found most objectionable from Sully were all after that. I didn't really see the point of voting Ken when he already had a bunch of votes and there was nothing for me to add since he hadn't posted for so long. I almost voted Shinori but I decided Sully was worse. Also, while I'm still not sure about Baldrick there wasn't anything concrete that made me think he was scummy so I didn't feel like voting him either.

As for the bit about my vote on Sully, yes, it's true that a large part of his case was about Shinori's reaction and I guess I should have made a qualifier about that. And yes, a large part of Shinori's content after his initial vote on me was defending himself. But the part about Shinori not having any reads really stuck out to me because it was super similar to what he said about me and in both cases was making this overarching statement about us that wasn't true. And the common thread between us was that we both weren't voting, so it seems to me that he was just using that as the sole basis for making that claim as opposed to actually off our posts.

[Refa]

@Magnificence Incarnate What are your thoughts on BBM?  Also what are your thoughts on Sully's latest posts?

@kirsche Yeah, I probably misrepped his town reads (sorry about that Mackc2), but that's not really my issue with him.  I think they could have been better explained, but I don't think they're particularly scummy.  You might be right about the tunnel, but I dunno, it's not like I'm ignoring his newer content or anything (actually, that's what's bothering me more).

@Mackc2 Fair enough on your defense.  I'm not entirely convinced on you, but I could definitely see you doing that (Michelaar/Shinori votes) as town.  Also a personal thing but I don't think you need to say stuff like this "Regardless I probably have wrong assumptions on how scum would act and vote on wagons." until postgame; after all, it's entirely possible that I'm the one in the wrong about the votes on you.  Also can you explain your issues with Baldrick?  I'm null on the slot myself, so having another opinion would be great.

I'd sheep Via and Kirsche's points on BBM.  For me personally, the way he's handling his Sully case is bothering me and I can't put a finger on it.  Sorry for having a shitty reason for being bothered because how do you even argue against this, but I think you (BBM) should at least address Via and Kirsche's points against you.

2 hours ago, Prims said:

Just so we're clear: I actually do think Ken is the most likely to flip scum at this juncture. In effect, he was using playstyle as an excuse to not contribute to the thread. His biggest concerns when posting were generally people voting him since that's what got him to reply to thread the most. But he doesn't engage the people voting him beyond telling them "I don't care about ED1 lol". In his response to Marth here, he says serious suspicion won't happen until later today, but what's he doing to reach that point? Is he just waiting for everybody to provide content for him? I'm not expecting super strong reads from him that early on, but a townie playing to the beat of their own drum should be doing more to actually get reads out of people if they're not happy with the current thread content. What he was doing was reactive and passive play, which is scummy.

The disappearing act is just argh at this point. It says he was last online 3 minutes ago so I don't know what's up with that.

This is very sheepable.  The last part in particular makes me think that he's scum that's given up over town that's busy.

##Unvote

##Vote: Ken M.

[Refa]

BBM's defense against Sully is good.  I didn't get why Sully thought BBM was active lurking.  I can get taking issue with him because it feels like his votes don't have that much weight behind them, but he definitely has original the opinions and is doing things.  Although BBM, do you think Sully would use reasoning that you're voting him because he's an easy mislynch?  I don't really see a newer scum player using that logic.  I don't agree with his reasoning, but I don't think it's coming from a scum PoV.

9 minutes ago, BBM said:

It's not that scum can't fake townreads; it's that they don't really have much of an incentive to do so (beyond to blend in since scumreading everyone would be suspicious) because it makes it harder to justify voting those people later on. This is especially the case if you're townreading and defending people who could easily be lynched, as Marth was, except for the bit on Baldrick. Add to that that my read on Marth was largely lazy scum and I realized that him townreading lots of people isn't really consistent with that. This is also partially a meta thing; I don't have time to go read past games to link posts for you but I think Marth is more likely to defend people as town than scum. Also, Marth made a ton of votes between my vote against him and my next post or two where I unvoted him; I think more than he'd made in the game total to that point. Those posts gave me more townvibes than scumvibes, so even if it was a relatively quick unvote time-wise, it wasn't a quick unvote post-wise. 

I did say originally Ken/Shinori/Baldrick, but the posts that I found most objectionable from Sully were all after that. I didn't really see the point of voting Ken when he already had a bunch of votes and there was nothing for me to add since he hadn't posted for so long. I almost voted Shinori but I decided Sully was worse. Also, while I'm still not sure about Baldrick there wasn't anything concrete that made me think he was scummy so I didn't feel like voting him either.

As for the bit about my vote on Sully, yes, it's true that a large part of his case was about Shinori's reaction and I guess I should have made a qualifier about that. And yes, a large part of Shinori's content after his initial vote on me was defending himself. But the part about Shinori not having any reads really stuck out to me because it was super similar to what he said about me and in both cases was making this overarching statement about us that wasn't true. And the common thread between us was that we both weren't voting, so it seems to me that he was just using that as the sole basis for making that claim as opposed to actually off our posts.

I disagree about townreads.  As scum, it's really easy to have a townread only to drop it after you "reread the thread" or "saw the flips".  Marth is a good enough player to do this.  Fair enough on the meta read and townreading him for his later posts, though.

I'm fine with the rest of this defense, though.  A response to Bizz's issues would be nice to make sure, but I really don't think these are scum responses to being cased so far...which means that my only scumread is a guy who hasn't posted all day long.  Great.

[Refa]

Also BBM, what are your current thoughts on Ken M.?

[BBM]

something else to add to the bit responding to kirsche- both him and Refa have said that my posts about Sully seem more about just pointing things he's doing wrong or badly vs trying to find scum intent and it's frustrating because I don't understand how the things I'm pointing out that he's doing aren't me showing scum intent on his part. He's ignoring a large number of posts I've made (not just parts of single posts, but many entire posts) and using one post about Shinori to say I'm waffling in general, and no posts at all as evidence to show that I don't have any reads. How do you guys not find this scummy?

thirdly, Via

I don't actually have a lot to say I guess that I haven't mostly already talked about in responding to Sully and kirsche. I did waffle on Shinori in that one post, but it was more so waffling about one particular part of his play (whether or not his outburst was scummy) as opposed to his alignment as a whole. The rest of the post was me taking back/apologizing for one reason for finding him scummy (because I had earlier agreed with Bart's reasoning for his vote) since I hadn't properly vetted Bart's post before agreeing with it, and being misread clearly bothered Shinori. I do still think he's suspicious (I'll expand on this in my upcoming posts).

cut by Refa, answers coming in next post

[Refa]

Just now, BBM said:

something else to add to the bit responding to kirsche- both him and Refa have said that my posts about Sully seem more about just pointing things he's doing wrong or badly vs trying to find scum intent and it's frustrating because I don't understand how the things I'm pointing out that he's doing aren't me showing scum intent on his part. He's ignoring a large number of posts I've made (not just parts of single posts, but many entire posts) and using one post about Shinori to say I'm waffling in general, and no posts at all as evidence to show that I don't have any reads. How do you guys not find this scummy?

I'll reread him because I do agree with what you said in your defense post against him (also my scumreads dried up, so I'll need to conjure up more out of thin air).  FMPOV though, it just felt like you were taking issue with him because his posts didn't read like he was intentionally misrepping you, but more that he didn't feel like you were doing enough.

Do you mean you find Bart or Shinori suspicious?

[SB.]

Lord Gaius subs for Ken Masters.

I’ll post votals when I can.

[Refa]

How does it feel to not be able to win with me?????

[ZoesMad]

Sup y'all I got class in about seven hours so I'm gonna read tonight then sleep. Expect a good post with at least a few hours to go before phase end.

[ZoesMad]

Just now, Refa said:

How does it feel to not be able to win with me?????

Hey man we just won resurgence, don't mess with the vibes now

[Refa]

Just now, Lord Gaius said:

Hey man we just won resurgence, don't mess with the vibes now

Oh, my bad gotta keep the streak going

[Refa]

Also do you know why Ken M. subbed out?

[ZoesMad]

Not at all

[BBM]

one more thing @Via- I think you're overestimating the amount of votes on Sully. I don't think there's ever even been an actual wagon on him. Refa voted him at the start of the game and then he unvoted; then a while later Marth voted, and then I voted. I don't think he's ever had more than 2 votes at a time. I think maybe when Refa was voting him there was more general talk that he might be scum but it was pretty ED1 stuff. So I don't really think it's correct to characterize my vote as an attempt to revive the wagon on him when there hasn't even been one in the first place.

@Prims/Refa- my lynch priority would go Sully > Ken/Shinori probably.

I do think Ken's reactions to people asking him to contribute, and what Prims said basically, is suspicious, but I think the bits about him purposely avoiding the thread as scum are a stretch. While that's possible, it's about equally possible that he just lost interest.

I actually thought Shinori had posted stuff more recently but I guess not. The listread post just has so little detail about everything except the bit on Michelaar that I don't really know what to make of it. The thing that bothers me most about his play as a whole is just that he says he's skimming while playing games, which fits given how his posts have been, but he's been using most of his limited time to defend himself rather than look for scum in more detail?

I'm not sure about Bartozio; I was townreading him slightly around the time I was scumreading Marth but he's dropped off the radar since then. It may just be a similar thing as Baldrick and Prims where his main scumread being AWOL is causing him to lurk slightly while waiting for them to return. Need to read his later posts again.

[Baldrick]

The formatting of this post is shot because I kept going back and forth between Notepad. Oh well.

 

Still got to not-skimread BBM's defence and make up my mind on the current wagons, but one little thing re: Marth and townreads.

He was townreading me before, but in one of his latest posts he said my Ken vote is "based on RVS", so I don't know how deep his read on me was.

Cut by Subs are Bad. I guess we can still lynch Gaius if he doesn't deliver. ##unvote

 

Marth
His Bartozio read was inconsistent, he was initially serious about it then tried to frame it as a pressure vote afterwards.
 

Shinori

He was weirdly ambivalent to Mackc's vote on him. He says he has no objections to Mackc's logic, but

- he told me his initial vote on Mackc was to pressure him. Mackc didn't get that impression when he voted, but Shinori didn't correct him.
- Mackc based his vote on the guess that someone on his wagon is scum. Shinori isn't looking for scum among those people.

I'm a little more definite in the scum intent behind Marth's actions, but I feel the Shinori case is more likely to get support at deadline.

##vote: Marth

[Michelaar]

I'm kind of conflicted who to vote on to be honest, there are a lot of good cases that I agree with, like the Shinori case. I am probably going to vote Ken Masters after rereading though. I don't agree with ''waiting till he's subbed out'' because that doesn't change his alignment last time I checked.

 

## Vote: Ken Masters

[BBM]

I guess a bit more about Sully because he's like a top townread apparently. Sully's play doesn't sit right with me because it just doesn't feel like it should for a newbtown. At the start of the game he was sort of passive and willing to hang around and wait back, which I thought was fairly in line with a new player and so when people were first a bit suspicious of him I didn't really see it. But since then he's become a lot more aggressive and that kind of shift just sits wrong with me? I suppose this change in play is what's causing people to be townreading him more, but it's done the opposite for me. I'm not really sure because I don't think anybody's given an explanation for why they think Sully is town except kirsche, but that consists mostly of a silly confirmation post thing and them agreeing on reads.

So I went looking for more concrete scummy things he'd done even if they weren't exact explanations for the shift in his play but maybe those things just seem more like bad play things to you guys rather than scummy things? I'd really like more detail here from Prims, Via, and kirsche in specific.

Baldrick, what do you think of Marth's later play starting with the Sully vote?

okay I've been reading/making mafia posts non-stop for almost three hours so I'm going to take a break.

[Refa]

On 11/28/2017 at 6:16 PM, SullyMcGully said:

Nope. When Refa got on my case a little bit ago, I thought that might be scummy 'cuz I'm an easy target, but then he let up, so I think he was just pointing out some of my mistakes, like what you said.

@BBM Sully mentioned being potentially suspicious of me for casing him too, so there's precedent for that logic.  To be fair to you, though, I don't think he mentioned anything about Marth casing him despite Marth dropping a vote on him as well.

On 11/28/2017 at 6:49 PM, SullyMcGully said:

I think the case behind Mack is the strongest right now. The fact that Mack suspects Michelaar for something so small, when Michelaar has a bit of a reputation for looking guiltier than he is, is slightly off-putting. Imagine the following scenario: Mack is scum, and Mich isn't. Mack knows that Mich often comes off as guilty when he's usually just a townie, and is going for what seems like an easy prey. Mack presumes that, if pushed, Mich will make a mistake (as he has in the past) that will make him a prime lynching target. In order to push Mich, Mack votes him for an exceedingly small reason. 

This bothers me because it assumes that Mackc2 is scum right away and saying it makes sense for him to case Michelaar instead of coming to the conclusion that Mackc2 is scum because of his read on Michelaar.  It also assumes that Michelaar is town who's getting mislynched despite Sully not having a read on Michelaar.  Dunno if I'm conveying this right, but basically it's him going from B (Mackc2 is scum) -> A (reasoning) instead of the other way around.

16 hours ago, SullyMcGully said:

I am satisfied with Mack's answers... for now. I don't feel too suspicious about Ken, he just seems like a guy who doesn't like others telling him what to do, which might make him more suspicious but doesn't set off any more alarms. So for right now:

##Unvote

##Vote: Shinori

I agree with Michelaar and Bart; the timing on your votes is suspicious. Do you have a good explanation for this?

Still don't like this vote like I mentioned earlier.  His followup on Shinori was fine, though.

11 hours ago, SullyMcGully said:

@Magnificence Incarnate after rereading, I don't think I ever properly responded to you asking me about your thoughts on Shinori. Here's the deal:

I know the logic for Michelaar's original Shinori vote was poor, but I also felt like Mack had sufficiently addressed the problems people had with him. I gave my logic for not getting on board with the Ken case already, and Shinori was the only thing that really struck me as odd (I didn't really get any bad vibes from you and BBM, and you two were the only other suspicious people at the time). I figured if I added my vote to the two already there, it would make answering my question a higher priority for Shinori. He did answer, and I got some interesting information from that. If it weren't for the questions the tone of his answers raised, I would be going for my next suspicion, which is

@BBM I'm not suspicious of you for the reasons the others have stated; I don't think your voting choices were as bad as Shinori's (which have already been covered) and your posts since then aren't that scummy to me. However, you've contributed notably little, despite posting often, your posts consist mostly of corrections and clarifications and not unique opinions. I want to know who you are actually reading, and while I'm keeping my vote on Shinori until he answers for his tone, you're my next suspicion should I decide Shinori is innocent.

If you knew the logic for the vote was poor, why did you sheep it?  I have trouble buying that.

If you didn't get bad vibes from BBM before, what changed your mind in this post?  Also a little thing but the wording here implies that you had a suspicion on BBM before, but none of your previous posts even mention him. I can get why BBM sees this as a misrep because the bolded part is objectively false.

6 hours ago, SullyMcGully said:

@BBM The difference between you/Shinori and Ken is that you two have posts, Ken does not. Mafia that is trying to survive wants to fit in but Ken's actions (or lack thereof) stick out like a sore thumb. If he's mafia, he's terrible at it. On the other hand, skilled mafia would post as frequently as possible, trying to give the illusion of having actual content while rarely taking a side. That's the kind of behavior I see from you in particular, I'm not as suspicious of Shinori and I only really suspected him because of the voting irregularity (which he cleared up) and the rageposting (which seems to be normal for him). However, you have consistently

1) posted with neutral content, like when you correct people on other people's posts. That could be townplay, but it could also be a convenient way of contributing to the conversation and seeming useful without actually saying anything unique.

2) posted with no real reads, like when you say several people are suspicious but don't settle on anyone in particular. The most serious leads you've had were Mack, which was early enough that it could've gone anywhere, and me. I have a paragraph on that last dude.

When people target me, it comes across as scummy to me because I'm the easiest to take advantage of. I've already made mistakes that have made me seem suspicious due to my inexperience with Mafia, and I'll probably make mistakes again. This post might be a flippin' mistake, I wouldn't know! But I'll bet whoever the Mafioso are would be looking to paint a target on my back since I have the highest chances of slipping up. And the fact that your most serious read in the game is on me, when I'm the least experienced and when I've just attacked you, makes me even more convinced that you might be scum.

No complaints about the first paragraph, it's a good point.

1) This doesn't really add to the scumread, especially considering you admit it could come from town.

2) I don't know if this is scum logic but it's hypocritical of you to complain about BBM's lack of reads (also ignored his Marth read yeah) when earlier you were voting Shinori because you didn't have anything better.  Considering you're proven town FYPOV, why couldn't Town!BBM have a similar perspective?

I still think the next paragraph is more likely to come from town.

[Refa]

Oh right, forgot to actually give my final thoughts on the slot.  Basically I'd be okay with lynching him.  Even disregarding the misrep (honestly, I'm still not sure if it's intentional but it is happening), his Mackc2/Shinori votes bother me and it's kind of weird that he didn't really get any flak for them.  Something interesting (but not directly relevant to my read on him) is it feels like he's always jumping around voting for Ken M despite having a consistent suspicion of the slot, so I'd look into him/Ken M. if one of them flips scum.

[BBM]

ok I missed that part where he also said the same thing about you so it's less actively scummy due to not targeting me specifically with it, but the logic as a whole is still bad because it begins with the premise that people are more likely to be scum just for voting him