Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[SullyMcGully]

So we don't get a card flip on night kills? That makes things harder.

Alright, a new day. After reading through yesterday's posts again, I figured I would go ahead and start off with some opinions on all of the players. I'll get around to Prims' death after this, I've got a fair bit to figure out about that. 

@Baldrick: I've got an entire post on you coming.

@Bartozio: I'll second Kirsche on how early those first Ken votes were. I'm developing a case for you, but you aren't my primary suspicion.

@BBM: I'm fairly satisfied with your late day 1 content. I'm letting you off the hook for now.

@kirsche: You haven't done anything that makes me suspicious of you yet, but I still think there's a fair chance that you're scum. You haven't convinced me either way yet.

@Mackc2: Some of the suspicion being thrown your way is merited, I'll have to study your case a little bit more. I asked you a question Day 1, figured you may have missed it so here it is again: Why did you think my read on you was good? I thought it sucked.

@Magnificence Incarnate: You're a lot like kirsche, you don't have enough presence for me to get a strong reading on you.

@Michelaar: Something about you is striking me in a funny way, you haven't contributed very much other than defending yourself and its bothering me. I'll look into that more later.

@Refa: Before Prims died, you were my strongest townread. I kinda thought you were everybody else's strongest townread also, so why didn't you die last night? I'll discuss this in depth later.

@Shinori: I'm good with you. While your Bart case has its merits, it isn't the strongest I've ever seen, but it doesn't strike me as scummy either. You've eased my suspicion... for now.

@via: You were my second strongest townread and you didn't die last night either. Maybe I'm missing something.

 

 

[BBM]

anyways after rereading the thread in the last 30 minutes before deadline all night, I have come to: ##Vote: Baldrick

so I mentioned last phase why I thought Baldrick was the worst votepark offender. In hindsight this really should have stuck out to me a lot earlier but his vote on Ken is like bordering on a policy vote. He says it's purely because Ken doesn't have reads, and that he was starting to suspect Sully as well but then didn't just because Sully had reads. This isn't a great vote/line of thinking given he's talking about either first-time (Sully) or still very new (Ken) players here; it's worse as basically the sole reason to keep that vote on Ken for so long, given that he says he doesn't think Ken was overly reactionary or defensive.

His posts around that time are all pretty good (for the first 24 hours or so) but then after that he has several posts where his side content during that votepark is just "I agree with X about Y" or asking other people for their opinions on someone: here and here, for example. In some cases (notably Shinori and Marth) he engages more with that person and tries to push them after agreeing with someone else's case on them (Shinori stuff is decent, Marth stuff is a bit weak), but doesn't really do that much with Mack. The other thing is that after saying Mack is in "would-lynch" territory he starts pseudo-defending him while attacking Shinori and basically doesn't say why he stops scumreading Mack at any point. 

So I think it was unfair of me to say that Baldrick did less than Bartozio while voteparking Ken, but to some extent I think that makes his votepark worse? He had other, better, reasons for voting Shinori but sticks to "new player didn't give reads in the first 12 hours" and doesn't switch votes to Marth until Gaius subs in. I'm also not sure why he switches votes from Marth to Shinori, his initial reason for voting Marth was that his actions had more definite scum intent. He says something about "consolidating" on Shinori even though Shinori had no votes so I don't know what that's about.

What put him over the top for me though was his last post or two before deadline. The post where Baldrick re-votes Gaius's slot near phase end pings me because he says it's scummy for Gaius to try and defend the residual cases against Ken vs putting out new content, which exaggerates the amount by which Gaius was defending Ken and basically dismisses the other content on Prims and other people that Gaius had produced. This wasn't quite the swing vote (that was Refa) but basically guaranteed that it would be Gaius getting lynched.

this bit also irks me though I'm not sure there's scum intent: "I have an opinion on the prims wagon but it might be better to save for postgame." also doesn't make sense because Prims was one of the leading wagons so why wouldn't he share? Even if it was shitty maybe let other people make that assessment? plus if it was so shitty that nobody else would be swayed by it, maybe he shouldn't be either? 

[Bluedoom]

I'm quite annoyed that Prims played so lazily and tunneled on some townie. Anyway,

##Vote: Baldrick

Didn't like the votepark, but he only talks about other reads when pressured. Only switched votes to me after I called him out on the votepark, Shinori vote doesn't make any sense coming from town when we're a few hours from deadline. 

[BBM]

I think Shinori is tentatively my #2 scumread over Sully atm. I think Baldrick and Shinori being buddies is quite conceivable given Baldrick never votes Shinori despite pushing him for a significant amount of time until a point in the game where it was pointless. The bit about Marth's actions having more definite scum intent over Shinori is also under-explained IMO

[BBM]

@Sully- most likely scum have a Janitor, which is a role that allows them to hide flips of people they kill. It's almost always limited use, probably 1x given the size of the game.

[Bartozio]

Via and Refa feel town to me. Refa has been very active in obtaining reads and questioning others, but didn't neglect to give his own opinions.

Via has been less active, but he came up with a good number of original  (and decent) cases when he was around. Didn't like how he started out by just posting gut reads, but he explained them well enough afterwards.

BBM has felt more townie to me for most of the game, but the fact that I mostly didn't like the cases against him might have clouded my mind a bit. I feel he's town for similar reasons as Refa, but I'm going to give his posts a read over tommorow just in case.

LG's posts didn't feel scummy, but they didn't feel townie enough for me to make up for Ken's posts. I think I already mentioned it for a good part, but I didn't like the explanation Ken gave for not liking ED1 reads. It made me feel he was trying to fly under the rader long enough for votes to switch around, but they didn't, and he didn't come back. His explanation also gave me the idea at first he'd at least post cases further along D1. I generally don't let inactivity bother me much, but it reinforced my read a bit to much in this case.

[Bluedoom]

@BBM Why do you think Shinori might be scum? Is it solely based off of interactions between Baldrick and him or something else?

[SullyMcGully]

Dang it BBM, you just took half of my Baldrick case!

So yeah, Baldrick. He was pretty strong at the beginning of the game but got more passive as things progressed. Here's my problem with it all. At the beginning, Baldrick was the primary person who pressured me into making that rushed Mack read. See this post:

On 11/28/2017 at 8:37 PM, Baldrick said:

I know there's not much material to go off, but either make your best guess or question someone to try and get more material. As I said before, weak reads don't bother me, but not having any reads or making any effort to get them bothers me.

Remember the bolded part, I come back to that later. This is the same pressure he exerted on Ken, which played a major role in getting that wagon started. When I first saw Baldrick going around putting pressure on people like this, I assumed he was probably town pushing for answers, maybe he had irrational expectations for everyone, but he didn't seem like scum. However, things changed as the game progressed, until we got this post:

On 11/30/2017 at 12:00 AM, Baldrick said:

I'll admit that I've lost motivation as the day goes on, because a Ken lynch seems inevitable to me based on how D1 typically goes, and since he's not around I can't make any progress.

But, if he's getting a sub I wouldn't really want to lynch them before they acclimatise. So @ people who are willing to lynch him now, would you prefer somebody subs in? If so, I'll pursue other options because I can't guarantee I'll be around at deadline.

Remember the bolded part from the first post? They seem to contrast each other, in the beginning he was all like "everybody should try to get reads" but later he says that he's "lost motivation" to pretty much do that very thing. This hypocrisy (that's a bit of a strong word, but you get the idea) really discards however much I townread him early on, because apparently, he doesn't practice what he preaches. Or at least that's how it comes across to me.

##Vote: Baldrick

[Baldrick]

What I prepared last night. I'll respond to posts this morning in a separate post

 

On 12/1/2017 at 12:01 AM, Magnificence Incarnate said:

@Baldrick Not sure what you're asking for here. In the first quote I said nothing about Mack provoking Michelaar. Michelaar isn't a player that gets provoked by a vote, you're putting words in my mouth here.

 

The point being I thought that Mack was throwing shade on Michelaar when people pressured him so that he could create some noise in the thread and get away with it. Then when he had his argument with Refa, over the course he figured out that he had to cover his tracks, and that he couldn't get away with what he did.

You said Mackc’s vote was scummy because he knows Michelaar’s playstyle, and Mackc says Mich does get provoked by a vote. If that’s not the part of Michelaar’s playstyle you were referring to, what is?

Sorry, I’m not following the second part at all. Can you explain it to me like I’m an idiot?

 

I didn't tell mack I was after a reaction because I was kind of late in posting at that time.  Other stuff had happened and I don't generally go and tell people every time I do a reaction test.

This seems like a poor play. Lost motivation because you feel Ken is going to be lynched so you just like stop putting in that much effort overall.  I can understand the whole apatheticness but I feel like this post followed by his Marth vote which was fairly quickly replaced with a vote on me is really weird and I feel like he's just looking for a lynch anywhere not LG.

 

So you didn’t have “literally NOTHING” to say to Mack. You were OK with him voting you for your vote being weak, while not aware that your vote is a reaction test? You haven’t answered me on whether you agree that there’s scum on Mackc’s wagon.

You quoted my posts, but you haven’t read it if you can’t tell why I switched off Ken. The keywords are “ if he's getting a sub I wouldn't really want to lynch them” and “I’ll pursue other options”

If you read my subsequent posts you will see I felt my Marth case was stronger, but felt there was more support for your lynch. So I voted Marth first to gauge any interest, then switched to you for the purposes of consolidation.

Shinori's read on Bartozio displays a surface-level reading of his posts;

- As someone else said, he doesn’t want to lynch LG because he’s just subbed in, this is not inconsistent with wanting to lynch Ken for his play.

- He says the Sully and Mackc reads came from nowhere. This is true at first glance, but in his previous posts he had no non-Ken reads (Shinori even points this out earlier!) and the reads are based on their recent posts so it makes sense.

- He concludes that Bartozio was sheeping Mackc on him. They both voted Shinori, but for different reasons, and Bartozio didn't mention Mackc. For reference, he mentions Prims and I when voting Ken and doesn't provide any new reasoning

- In general, he's not trying to work out what Bartozio is thinking. He says in delay in switching from Ken to him was awkward with no elaboration. He doesn't address the meat of his Sully read.

His biggest scumread being so shallow makes me think he decided he found Bartozio scummy before reading his posts; it would explain why he announced Bartozio was scum several hours before laying out his case. At best, this suggests he has a survival mindset, overly focussed on people voting or pressuring him. At worst, he’s got a reason to lynch Bartozio unrelated to reads.

[Bluedoom]

-Michelaar is a player, who, as scum, cannot post reads without being pressured by many players. And when he does, they are one liners.

-Mack wanted to get a wagon started on an inactive!Mich as an escape gate when he was being pressured by people.

-Refa punishes Mack for this.

-Mack over the course of the discussion realizes that he cannot get away with his vote and switches his vote to cover his tracks.

 

That's about as much as I can explain my interpretation.

[Bluedoom]

I read a couple of BBM's scum games:C9++++ on smogon and Trinity Mafia(two years ago) over here.

In the smogon game(being the most recent scum game of his) he busses his buddy hard and fakes tunnel vision on the guy while asking/pressuring another player who is lynchbait material. The D1 lynch lands on his buddy and then he coasts off of the towncred that he gets.

In Trinity Mafia he does the same thing where he pressures new players/lynchbait but he spends most of the time asking people questions that don't push the game forward in any direction. 

So I feel like his play  isn't really matching whatever that I've read of the two games mentioned above.  Like I think the Sully vote later during D1 is good even though it is late. Obviously I agree with the Baldrick vote today, but also, I kinda don't see scum arguing against the Prims wagon at deadline when a)There were valid concerns about his play b)You're getting an easy mislynch on a good player. Thoughts?

[SullyMcGully]

So the Prims kill really confuses me. I came into today highly suspicious of Prims after LG flipped town, and then I find that he's dead. I was expecting Refa, or maybe via or kersch but especially Refa, since they seemed to be the overall most trusted people around here and were contributing the most to the town. I came up with a list of scenarios in which it would make sense for the scum to kill Prims instead of Refa:

1) Refa is scum and mafia does not kill its own. 

2) Mafia assumes that if Refa doesn't die, people will suspect him and potentially lynch him.

3) Mafia assumes that somebody has a Night 1 protection power, which would probably be used on Refa.

The problems here are that:

1) Refa has been a very observant and consistent poster, with many questions and very good insight. If Refa is scum, he's really, really good at it. 

2) Why would Mafia hope people would suspect Refa and then kill someone people already suspected? Prims had a fair chance of being lynched today (as kersch's case shows). 

3) This is OK, but it still doesn't explain: Why Prims? via, kersch, and, to a lesser extent, marth all had fairly low suspicion on them at the end of the day, if any of them were townies they would have been an okay kill, and they can't all be scum. Well, I guess they can, but that seems unlikely.

Here are a few more reasons, for why they would want Prims dead in particular:

1) Prims is an experienced player, at the end of D1 suspicion on him was abating, he could probably have dodged getting lynched today if he played his cards right.

2) Killing any of the other options would cast suspicion on a specific member of the mafia.

3) Prims was mafia, and the rest of the mafia are in a position where they would be exposed if he was lynched today and his card was flipped.

I really don't know what to make of this, and perplexing myself over it isn't getting me any reads, so I suppose I'll look back over what people have already said.

 

[Bluedoom]

There is this feeling that he isn't townreading as many people as he usually does as town though, I forgot to mention that.

[Bluedoom]

My takeaway from the Prims kill was that the mafia were scared of Prims getting better reads D2 despite his inaccurate play during D1. I didn't expect it myself,honestly.

[Refa]

I thought night would end like two hours later, feels bad man.

[Baldrick]

24 minutes ago, BBM said:

anyways after rereading the thread in the last 30 minutes before deadline all night, I have come to: ##Vote: Baldrick

so I mentioned last phase why I thought Baldrick was the worst votepark offender. In hindsight this really should have stuck out to me a lot earlier but his vote on Ken is like bordering on a policy vote. He says it's purely because Ken doesn't have reads, and that he was starting to suspect Sully as well but then didn't just because Sully had reads. This isn't a great vote/line of thinking given he's talking about either first-time (Sully) or still very new (Ken) players here; it's worse as basically the sole reason to keep that vote on Ken for so long, given that he says he doesn't think Ken was overly reactionary or defensive.

His posts around that time are all pretty good (for the first 24 hours or so) but then after that he has several posts where his side content during that votepark is just "I agree with X about Y" or asking other people for their opinions on someone: here and here, for example. In some cases (notably Shinori and Marth) he engages more with that person and tries to push them after agreeing with someone else's case on them (Shinori stuff is decent, Marth stuff is a bit weak), but doesn't really do that much with Mack. The other thing is that after saying Mack is in "would-lynch" territory he starts pseudo-defending him while attacking Shinori and basically doesn't say why he stops scumreading Mack at any point. 

So I think it was unfair of me to say that Baldrick did less than Bartozio while voteparking Ken, but to some extent I think that makes his votepark worse? He had other, better, reasons for voting Shinori but sticks to "new player didn't give reads in the first 12 hours" and doesn't switch votes to Marth until Gaius subs in. I'm also not sure why he switches votes from Marth to Shinori, his initial reason for voting Marth was that his actions had more definite scum intent. He says something about "consolidating" on Shinori even though Shinori had no votes so I don't know what that's about.

What put him over the top for me though was his last post or two before deadline. The post where Baldrick re-votes Gaius's slot near phase end pings me because he says it's scummy for Gaius to try and defend the residual cases against Ken vs putting out new content, which exaggerates the amount by which Gaius was defending Ken and basically dismisses the other content on Prims and other people that Gaius had produced. This wasn't quite the swing vote (that was Refa) but basically guaranteed that it would be Gaius getting lynched.

this bit also irks me though I'm not sure there's scum intent: "I have an opinion on the prims wagon but it might be better to save for postgame." also doesn't make sense because Prims was one of the leading wagons so why wouldn't he share? Even if it was shitty maybe let other people make that assessment? plus if it was so shitty that nobody else would be swayed by it, maybe he shouldn't be either? 

I don't think it's particularly hard for a new player to post reads. As I noted here, Ken hadn't vanished entirely, he was just active lurking without posting, which is a fair degree worse than merely not having reads.

I don't really know Mackc, so I thought to let Marth push him and that would help me read both Marth and Mackc. The stuff about Shinori's interaction with Mackc wasn't pseudo-defending Mackc or not scumreading him; if anything, I think Shinori's lack of reaction to Mackc implies they're buddies.

I thought I had done a better job explaining why Marth was scummy, but this is the first time I'm getting feedback on my reads. Even though Shinori had no votes on him at the time, he had votes before and more people had said they would lynch him, so I felt a Shinori wagon could more conceivably happen than a Marth wagon.

When switching to Gaius I felt I had to say something about his play. It was based on the post I quote and it referred to, but I didn't have time to read his content properly.

To be frank, after I had typed it up, it sounded less like a defence of Prims and more like a rant about my personal feelings. I should have deleted it entirely.

 

19 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

I'm quite annoyed that Prims played so lazily and tunneled on some townie. Anyway,

##Vote: Baldrick

Didn't like the votepark, but he only talks about other reads when pressured. Only switched votes to me after I called him out on the votepark, Shinori vote doesn't make any sense coming from town when we're a few hours from deadline. 

Had I been pressured at all D1? Not rhetorical, I honestly can't recall.

Pure coincidence, my vote switch was motivated by Gaius subbing in.

See the first paragraph of my BBM response above.

 

1 minute ago, SullyMcGully said:

Remember the bolded part from the first post? They seem to contrast each other, in the beginning he was all like "everybody should try to get reads" but later he says that he's "lost motivation" to pretty much do that very thing. This hypocrisy (that's a bit of a strong word, but you get the idea) really discards however much I townread him early on, because apparently, he doesn't practice what he preaches. Or at least that's how it comes across to me.

##Vote: Baldrick

Lost motivation to push people other than Ken, not lost motivation to get reads on people other than Ken. I was still developing reads on Marth and Shinori, but I was applying no pressure on them because believed Ken was so likely to be lynched.

[Percivalé]

I think it's weird prims died first cuz he was a potential wagon for d2 especially after his huge case flipped town. I have a lowkey feeling newb mafia might have fearkilled him. ALSO prims refusing to claim might have drawn mafia to him too, in case he had a power role.

also mafia has a janitor @ sully. usually janitors are only one shot. sometimes more but this is a small game so I wouldn't expect it to have more. janitor hides both role and alignment upon death.

I just got off work, will post later.

[Percivalé]

I really want mich to die or be vigged btw.

[SullyMcGully]

Vig = Vigilante Daykill, right?

[BBM]

I was also kind of surprised by the Prims kill but I think another possibility is that the mafia thought he had a power role since he was so vehemently against claiming at the end of the day 1.

@Baldrick- active lurking is posting stuff in the thread while not giving opinions. not posting at all is just being inactive, even if they are active elsewhere in the forum.

Do you actually find mack scummy? Even now you're not saying that you do, just that they could be buddies. You haven't mentioned him except indirectly while pushing Shinori/Marth since early on and you didn't mention him when talking about who to vote when switching away from Gaius after he subbed in. honestly feels like you just forgot about Mack entirely. Wanting to let Marth push him because you didn't know Mack well sounds like an excuse because you didn't know Ken either and he was your main scumread.

@Marth- too lazy to re-type my Shinori stuff from last phase but I think his votes have been quite weak, especially the Bartozio one. I also felt that at parts he was prioritizing defending himself over scumhunting when he was busy.

[Bluedoom]

Honestly the Kenwagon was horrible, I'll be surprised and also mad if there weren't any scum on it.

I'm trying to picture a scenario with scum!Bart on the wagon but the question is, if Bart is scum, why was there a resistance to my Bart vote so early in the game? It would be abnormal for town to find issue with voting a wagonhopper who didn't do anything prior to the hop. So we could talk about mafia defending Bart. But then we'd have like,  Prims(alignment didn't flip but most likely town anyway),BBM(plausible),Baldrick(unsure if scum decide to pile votes here) and Refa(he scumread Bart for the vote himself and felt better about his play later on, doesn't read as buddy play to me). Don't think I'd push this slot today or in the near future just based on thread flow during ED1.

[Bluedoom]

@Michelaar pls post more dude. I think you're town but going inactive doesn't help find scum and will only get you lynched, please.

[SullyMcGully]

It would seem Michelaar has been having a serious case of "active lurking", then. I'm looking forward to hearing what he has to say, I just get this feeling he really hasn't posted any opinions... like, at all. Almost everything he's posted has been in response to something else, I know this is his normal playstyle but I'd like to think that he's improved on that front. 

@Michelaar yesterday I asked if you had any reads, you never answered. Do you have any reads today (and please have good ones I'm not down for mislynching you again)?

[Refa]

Marth, what do you think about Bart justifying his vote and reevaluating it (I think BBM said he did that, I don't remember who)?  I agree w/Prims that that can be faked by scum, but the votepark bothers me less than Mackc2 (because of what you said, but also because I don't remember him ever mentioning scumreading Ken M in any more detail than "yeah, I agree with the cases on him") and Baldrick (sheeping BBM's read on this one).

[Bluedoom]

Which page is it on? I vaguely remember it but I'm struggling to search for it now.