Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[Refa]

Yeah, I think those are both good points (moreso the second, first I could see him making as town).

[Bartozio]

22 minutes ago, Elieson said:

OK IM READING DAY TWO AND INTERESTING THINGS ARE BEING SPOTTED

 

Made D2. How do you know paper is town again?

I find it very convenient that you happened to leave out the part of that post where I talked about said other possibilities...

Here's the full post:

On 4-12-2017 at 1:38 AM, Bartozio said:

The only part that is a proven fact is that Mack is in contact with paper of course.

However, as long as Paper is town, it benefits us to keep Mack alive. We can always ask him whether Mack is confirmed town to him afterwards. At the very least, there's no way Paper benefits from Mack dying (and knowing this), because he wouldn't be coaching Mack otherwise.

Both of them being scum sounds odd, but I can't think of a good reason why it's not possible. I hope other people can say more about how likely that is.

Just in case: @Mackc2, is PaperBlade confirmed town for you?

The first part of my post was mostly in response to Sully wondering whether it was possible Mackc2 was still scum even with Paper being town. (here's the post for people who don't believe me:)

Spoiler

On 4-12-2017 at 1:13 AM, SullyMcGully said:

Been reading back over some of Mack's posts, and had some thoughts. Mack's play this game has been... poor. In very many ways, despite the apparent legitimacy of the PaperBlade claim, his previous posts still look scummy (which is why a lot of us were voting him). Now, his claim seems solid, so this isn't a serious suspicion of mine, but could it be that PaperBlade is town oblivious to Mack being scum or both of them are scum (or destined for it).

@everybody is there still ground for doubting certain aspects of Mack's claim, or is this just me being foolish?

I also consider the possibilities of Paper being scum, both with Mack being scum (the third line) and Mack being town (the final question). I really don't see how you could read this post and come to the conclusion that I "knew" PaperBlade was town...

22 minutes ago, Elieson said:

Made Day 3. Trackr claim with a N2 on Marth. Claims N1 tracker action on Refa after being pushed by Sully to claim it to begin with and that's ok because it's meta and all BUT HERE IS SOMETHING YOU SHOULD CONSIDER @Refa @Quote! Why did he track Marth in the first place? Literally on Day 2, he said nothing about Marth except for his #700 which is a wash as he basically countered his own suspicions on him AND he outright shared legitimate suspicions on Shinori and Baldork, both whom he could've tracked on N2 with more legitimacy to back up his suspicions on the slots. I can't be the first to notice this.

Right, should have tracked Baldrick N2, my bad /endsarcasm

I don't really see how I countered my own suspisions in that post? I said I had doubts about Marth being in a scum team with Baldrick, but how would that make me not suspect him after Baldrick flips town?

I'll admit I should have tracked Sully or Shinori, sure. The reason I tracked Marth was because I thought he'd be the most likely to take the night kill from my suspects. Clearly, I was too focussed on tracking the night kill with mind games for the first two nights, which I get now.

This logic doesn't make a lot of sense to me honestly. You're basicly saying: "Look the guy made a weird choice for his first target, which I guess is understandable, but he also made a weird choice for his second target after nobody pointed out his first target was bad. That's super scummy!"

I mean seriously, why would my targets get better without anyone pointing out to me I'm doing things wrong? People only explained to me my it was stupid on D3 (since they didn't know I was being dumb before that obviously), so why were you expecting me to go from a dumb choice to a good one?

Maybe I'm biased because I know he's scum, but this really feels like a quickly frabicated case against me to make sure you guys lynch the wrong person today.

[Refa]

How would you know that Marth is the most likely to take the kill when you've never played w/Scum!Marth outside of an OC game where he never took the kill?

[Refa]

9 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

I don't really see how I countered my own suspisions in that post? I said I had doubts about Marth being in a scum team with Baldrick, but how would that make me not suspect him after Baldrick flips town?

This is bullshit lol, why would Marth be suspicious just because Baldrick flipped town?  You never mentioned any issues with his slot previously as far as I can remember.

[Bartozio]

4 minutes ago, Refa said:

How would you know that Marth is the most likely to take the kill when you've never played w/Scum!Marth outside of an OC game where he never took the kill?

Because he was under the least amount of suspision, same reason I thought you would take the kill as scum...

2 minutes ago, Refa said:

This is bullshit lol, why would Marth be suspicious just because Baldrick flipped town?  You never mentioned any issues with his slot previously as far as I can remember.

I literally talk about this in the post Elie linked!

I talk about scum teams with Marth as a possibility. I can't find a likely scum team with both him and Baldrick on it, but I do mention he might be scum if Baldrick flips town.

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

Because he was under the least amount of suspision, same reason I thought you would take the kill as scum...

I literally talk about this in the post Elie linked!

I talk about scum teams with Marth as a possibility. I can't find a likely scum team with both him and Baldrick on it, but I do mention he might be scum if Baldrick flips town.

Me/BBM were under less suspicion, why didn't you think we would take the kill?

I don't see this in the post that Elie linked...maybe you should link that post.

[Bartozio]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

Me/BBM were under less suspicion, why didn't you think we would take the kill?

Because even I realized that just tracking whoever seemed the least suspicious was going to slow, so I focussed on the people I wasn't townreading instead (I realized this during D2).

1 minute ago, Refa said:

I don't see this in the post that Elie linked...maybe you should link that post.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/79451-persona-5-mafia-day-5/&page=28&tab=comments#comment-5071252

In the last line I mention Marth as a possibility (to be completly accurate, I say the scum team is likely Sully/Shinori and then one of Kirsche or Marth).

[Refa]

Reread Michelaar's play in Heroes, he basically acted defensive until people pressed him to give reads and even then, they were pretty barebone (no actual scumreads and some fairly weak townreads).  More importantly, he mostly ignored my vote on him (important to note was that I was his scumbuddy).  This was his most substantial reads post of the day, for reference.  Additionally, he went out of his way to not have any reads on his scumbuddies despite both of them having cased him at some point throughout the day.  This contrasts heavily to his play in this game.  Here, he makes several cases unprompted, with his biggest suspicion being on his scumbuddy.  Additionally, he presses the vote despite getting a lot of flake from Shinori (these don't read as scum/scum interactions).  Also, he actively defends Sully instead of just stating a townread on the slot and leaving it there.   Ken M. vote was lazy but honest, so it doesn't really bother me.  He also goes out of his way to call out Shinori later on, and I don't read his interactions with the slot as scum/scum.  This direct comparison is important because I don't view Michelaar (or most people, really) as someone who can change his scum game so drastically between two games.

Regarding Elie's play, his 1v1 attempt w/you was shoddy at best but I can get where he was coming from.  It doesn't make him look better, but it's NAI for me.  I don't remember him making any other posts of value before today, so instead I'm going to link what he said in the QT.

Something something "This is me dodging a prod that I was actually prodded for" also I legit forgot this existed

If I were scum, I'd be applauding my scumteam for getting stuff done without any effort from myself or whoever else there was.

Honestly I'd be more motivated to keep upw ith this game if I were scum, because then I'd have some easily accessible OC to remind me to keep active

OK SO ITS NIGHT

OK SO I AM AN IDIOT AND SAW THAT SB POSTED NIGHT START so yea

Refa: I thought Barto was accusing Marth of visiting someone and marth was saying "I visited noone!". Marth didn't say that, i just interpreted it as that. 

Levi: Refusing to cooperate? NO DEAR!

```Levi: Refusing to cooperate? NO DEAR!```

By that, I mean that I'm kinda bothered by this because I'm not refusing anything. I just haven't been in here because i haven't played a game with a quicktopic in ages so it's genuinely not on my active radar of things to check even when i'm not terribly busy

UHH @REFA IDK IF I'M ALLOWED TO POST IT SO IN SYNOPSIS but it was basically a bunch of responses to what I said in here (with a quote of Levi) and a vote on kirsche because i didn't actually see the last page and didn't know that it was Night 4 since SB never updated the thread title and just half-arsed the phase end post. 

Also it was clarity to Refa on the 1v1 that wasn't really a 1v1.

If Bart is scum, he's catching so much scum at this point right...he's going for major town cred I guess? Town has like no info if Bart is scum from what i can tell

He is 100% wrong because I didn't act last night; I'm straight up vanilla and I'm not mafia vanilla.

GDI this is so lame

I found the one thing that Barto slipped up on. If you won't believe me claiming vanilla, please read it and believe that what i called bart out for makes no sense for town!bart (n2 Marth track).

If this slot is scum, I'll join Prims' EiMM game because there's no way that that's true.  Elie's content is mostly...well, it's stuff I can see him either way.  However, I don't see him not noticing it was night phase as scum, and not noticing that he was in a 1v1 w/Bartozio as scum.  Michelaar's content is more telling for reasons I already stated.

[Refa]

@Quote Thoughts?

[Percivalé]

I'm in a seroquel hhaze I'm gonns sleep for on er more hour then post

thinkinh bart id scum though off of his resctiobd with kirsche

[Elieson]

9 minutes ago, Quote said:

I'm in a seroquel hhaze I'm gonns sleep for on er more hour then post

thinkinh bart id scum though off of his resctiobd with kirsche

offtopic but seroquel hazes are fierce stuff; don't mafia on trazedone or seroquel kids

[Elieson]

1 hour ago, Bartozio said:

This logic doesn't make a lot of sense to me honestly. You're basicly saying: "Look the guy made a weird choice for his first target, which I guess is understandable, but he also made a weird choice for his second target after nobody pointed out his first target was bad. That's super scummy!"

 

That's not it; it's "You targetted Refa, which I can get, he wasn't looking ultratown and earlygame scumleads are few and far between" and "you targeted marth for no reason whatsoever...you said you found other people scummy, and targetted marth instead of either of them." Why would town not track a scumread and instead go for broke panic and track some random guy that they're just kind of nullreading when they have [stated] reasons to track specific people?

 

1 hour ago, Bartozio said:

I'll admit I should have tracked Sully or Shinori, sure. The reason I tracked Marth was because I thought he'd be the most likely to take the night kill from my suspects. Clearly, I was too focussed on tracking the night kill with mind games for the first two nights, which I get now.

Suspects? At the time, the only real suspicion you had on Marth was that you didn't find him as ubertown as others, and you had suspects, in Shinori and Sully (gdi why did I say baldrick earlier). You never stated Marth as a suspect. You can't just pull this shit out of your ass now and expect us to believe it:

 

Quote

It bothers me quite a bit that Shinori and Balderick have made several passing remarks about finding each other scummy, without ever commiting to it. Shinori has been saying he suspects Balderick for a while now, but never really posted a case on him. Balderick started to focus on Shinori mostly after he got under pressure, even though he said he was more sus on Marth on D1. Could very well be because Shinori is the actual scum between the two (him and Marth I mean)....

AND LATER IN THE SAME POST

Baldrick/Kirsche/Sully. Maybe Marth instead of Sully. Sully and Marth both being Baldricks scum buddies would mean they pretty much decided to both focus him at the start of D2, which I find very unlikely.

So Kirsche would make a good lynch if Baldrick flips scum.

If Balderick doesn't flip scum for some reason, I'd say

Sully/Shinori/Kirsche or Marth, but that's more based on individual suspision then associative reads.

Perhaps you're missing the bullet that you just shot into your own foot here: You were very committed to Shinori being scum. WHERE did you highlight Marth as a legitimate suspect? He's PoE based on your basically ignoring him outside of just mentioning his name. You can't backpedal yourself out of this one man.

 

Spoiler

MAN THIS IS HARD TO TRY TO TALK ABOUT THINGS OBJECTIVELY WHEN I HAVE SUBJECTIVE REASONS TO JUST POINT MY FINGER

 

[Refa]

I'm rereading his content just to make sure and there's stuff like...

On 11/29/2017 at 7:24 AM, Bartozio said:

##Unvote

##Vote: Shinori

I'll probably change my vote if I get a satisfactory answer for my question, but until then this bothers me more then other people.

#MakesYouThink

Shinori's reaction doesn't seem as telling as his reaction to Michelaar either.  Bartozio does indeed unvote Shinori without pressing the slot further either.  Shinori went to the bottom of his lynch priority in the next post as well, which is...odd.  In his next post, Bartozio also mentions that Shinori is an okay lynch because he hasn't contributed any good new reads, but this conflicts with the unvote earlier.  Clearly there was a period of time where Bart wasn't bothered by Shinori enough to unvote him, so why is Shinori suddenly a good lynch again (to be fair, Shinori was at the bottom of the lynch priority, but Bartozio was still okay with lynching him)?  Not producing enough good reads is not a good enough reason.  I also don't like how he said "since LG is getting lynched anyways, I'm not going to state my current read on him" which is an easy way to leave his vote on the slot without any conflict.  

Man, how was I not bothered by this on D2?  I should have listened to Prims (figured out 2/3 of the scum team on D1 broken)...

On 12/7/2017 at 8:16 AM, Bartozio said:

Honestly, I'm feeling Sully/Kirsche as a scum team even more now. Considering how both of his buddies were under heavy suspision, it wouldn't suprise me that much if Kirsche wanted to get a case out on both of them to make sure he wouldn't look bad after their flip.

I'm fine with a lynch on either of them, but swapping my vote would put Kirsche at L-1, so lets not do that just yet...

Now I just feel stupid.

[Elieson]

Barto should've just tracked Marth and instead threw Shinori under the bus, if he wanted to really get town cred. I'm guessing he wanted to see Marth either claim or get lynched since either means no lynch on mafia) and they lucked out with Marth having acted that night, so they didn't have to out a "no info" or throw a buddy under the bus

[Refa]

On 12/5/2017 at 11:46 PM, BBM said:

A Thing wrt Shinori-Bartozio interactions- Bartozio at the start of D2 was like "yeah Shinori's D1 case on me was fine" even though it blew holes and then when Shinori yelled at him here for not doing shit he basically didn't respond even though he posted pretty soon after that. maybe because he knew it was a bit faked? I'm feeling better about that as a possible scumpair now

Shinori/kirsche/Bartozio it's LOCKED you guys want to give up?

On 12/6/2017 at 12:12 AM, Refa said:

You gotta understand that there ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on, till we get to the end of the line.

##Vote: Bartozio

[Elieson]

#BBMReadingSkills
#EliesonClutchesAtEndgameOnceAgain
#mafiasux

 

[Elieson]

Just now, Elieson said:

#EliesonClutchesAtEndgameOnceAgain

By clutches, I of course mean "Does the absolute minimum to score another town win while appearing completely clueless"

#cardflipsucks is a fine alternative though

[Bartozio]

40 minutes ago, Refa said:

Reread Michelaar's play in Heroes, he basically acted defensive until people pressed him to give reads and even then, they were pretty barebone (no actual scumreads and some fairly weak townreads).  More importantly, he mostly ignored my vote on him (important to note was that I was his scumbuddy).  This was his most substantial reads post of the day, for reference.  Additionally, he went out of his way to not have any reads on his scumbuddies despite both of them having cased him at some point throughout the day.  This contrasts heavily to his play in this game.  Here, he makes several cases unprompted, with his biggest suspicion being on his scumbuddy.  Additionally, he presses the vote despite getting a lot of flake from Shinori (these don't read as scum/scum interactions).  Also, he actively defends Sully instead of just stating a townread on the slot and leaving it there.   Ken M. vote was lazy but honest, so it doesn't really bother me.  He also goes out of his way to call out Shinori later on, and I don't read his interactions with the slot as scum/scum.  This direct comparison is important because I don't view Michelaar (or most people, really) as someone who can change his scum game so drastically between two games.

Okay, I can understand why you'd townread Michelaar based off of meta, but aren't you being a bit to easy there? I mean, yes it's a significant difference, but you have to remember that

• In Heroes, he was convinced that not having any reads on D1 was normal. Not that it was okay to do as scum, not that noobs might not have any, but that it was perfectly normal for players in general. Since he has realized now that he was wrong, wouldn't you expect him to improve? The difference between not trying to have content and actually trying can make quite a difference.
• During that game, he believed himself to be pretty experienced at mafia, which is is why he didn't listen to any of your advice. Now that he knows he has to adapt, he's obviously going to listen to the advice of his buddies. Is it still impossible for him to make a good case on Shinori even when his buddies are telling him to do it?

Quote

If this slot is scum, I'll join Prims' EiMM game because there's no way that that's true.  Elie's content is mostly...well, it's stuff I can see him either way.  However, I don't see him not noticing it was night phase as scum, and not noticing that he was in a 1v1 w/Bartozio as scum.  Michelaar's content is more telling for reasons I already stated.

Why would it matter whether he is scum or town wrt not realizing it was night? The only difference is that he has to send in night actions, but how would that prevent him from realizing it was night? If he had only realized this during the next day, sure I could see that, but how would it prevent him from realizing it only later on in the night?

And how difficult is it to just fake not realizing being in a 1v1?

Urgh, and of course several cases against me came up when I was typing this, so I'll respond to those now...

Being slow at typing sucks

[Bartozio]

23 minutes ago, Elieson said:

That's not it; it's "You targetted Refa, which I can get, he wasn't looking ultratown and earlygame scumleads are few and far between" and "you targeted marth for no reason whatsoever...you said you found other people scummy, and targetted marth instead of either of them." Why would town not track a scumread and instead go for broke panic and track some random guy that they're just kind of nullreading when they have [stated] reasons to track specific people?

 

Suspects? At the time, the only real suspicion you had on Marth was that you didn't find him as ubertown as others, and you had suspects, in Shinori and Sully (gdi why did I say baldrick earlier). You never stated Marth as a suspect. You can't just pull this shit out of your ass now and expect us to believe it:

 

Perhaps you're missing the bullet that you just shot into your own foot here: You were very committed to Shinori being scum. WHERE did you highlight Marth as a legitimate suspect? He's PoE based on your basically ignoring him outside of just mentioning his name. You can't backpedal yourself out of this one man.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

MAN THIS IS HARD TO TRY TO TALK ABOUT THINGS OBJECTIVELY WHEN I HAVE SUBJECTIVE REASONS TO JUST POINT MY FINGER

 

There were 4 people left on my list of non-town reads, and there were 3 scum members left. Marth and Kirsche were both PoE at that point, but one of them had to be scum FMPoV. I figured Marth would be the most likely of the people on my "list of people who might be the scum", which I will refer to as my list of suspects from now on, to carry out the kill that night.

I didn't track Shinori or Sully because I thought they wouldn't carry out the kill anyway, even if they were scum.

22 minutes ago, Refa said:

I'm rereading his content just to make sure and there's stuff like...

#MakesYouThink

Shinori's reaction doesn't seem as telling as his reaction to Michelaar either.  Bartozio does indeed unvote Shinori without pressing the slot further either.  Shinori went to the bottom of his lynch priority in the next post as well, which is...odd.  In his next post, Bartozio also mentions that Shinori is an okay lynch because he hasn't contributed any good new reads, but this conflicts with the unvote earlier.  Clearly there was a period of time where Bart wasn't bothered by Shinori enough to unvote him, so why is Shinori suddenly a good lynch again (to be fair, Shinori was at the bottom of the lynch priority, but Bartozio was still okay with lynching him)?  Not producing enough good reads is not a good enough reason.  I also don't like how he said "since LG is getting lynched anyways, I'm not going to state my current read on him" which is an easy way to leave his vote on the slot without any conflict. 

When I voted Shinori, I thought they had made a stupid slip up that made no sense coming from town. It turned out I missread, so I unvoted and Shinori dropped on my suspect list.

I unvoted Shinori because he wasn't at the top of my suspect list anymore, and I also didn't have a case to push on him. There's a big difference between being at the top of a suspect list and being a good lynch. The latter only means that I think that person is more likely to be scum then most other people.

When I said I wasn't going to give my read on LG, I had very little time before the phase ended, so I decided to spend it on other people. I believed spending my time on considering who to lynch/look into in the next days was more important then talking about a lynch that wasn't going to change anyway. I have shared my thoughts on LG during D2 though.

[SB.]

Votals 5.1

Bartozio (2): Elieson, Refa
Elieson (1): Bartozio

Not Voting (1): Via

Day 5 ends in 48 hours and 40 minutes. With 4 alive, it takes 1 to lynch and 3 to hammer.

Town is in MYLO.

Edited December 12, 2017 by SB.

[Percivalé]

i'm awake finally

i can't convince myself that it isn't bart anymore and i still think it's weird kirsche decided to push bart as itp rather than scum ?_? and that their interactions were forced so does anyone else have anything to say or should i just hammer this

[Percivalé]

i don't think elie faked not knowing he was in a 1v1 

[Percivalé]

actually whatever there's no point stalling anymore ##vote: bartozio @SB.

[SB.]

That's hammer.

[SB.]

With Akira long gone, nobody wanted to put up with his stupid cat and his ridiculous 7am bedtimes.



Bartozio - Morgana, Mafia Night 1-3 Tracker+Namecop, was lynched Day 5

And with that, the game concludes.

Elieson never ended up winning a vote like he wanted to, but for the rest of the town that was a pretty good thing.



Elieson - Toranosuke Yoshida, Town Vanilla, survived and won

Refa decided to celebrate town's victory by getting wasted, although he probably would have done that anyway.



Refa - Ichiko Ohya, Town Vanilla, survived and won

And Via was free to go back to drawing lobsters and dinosaur comics in peace.

Via - Yusuke Kitagawa, Town Vanilla, survived and won

Congratulations to the town for winning Persona 5 Mafia!

Edited December 13, 2017 by SB.