Holiday banner predictions

[Ice Dragon]

33 minutes ago, Charmeleonbrah said:

Is it confirmed that there will be a New Years banner in addition to the Christmas banner?

Nope.

Honestly, I don't think they will, but the timing is just too perfect.

My main reasoning for thinking they won't have two holiday banners is because most players simply won't have the money to spend on two back-to-back limited banners. Creating new content costs money, and spreading out limited-duration paid content to allow your customers to replenish their wallets gets you the most return on that money.

 

34 minutes ago, Charmeleonbrah said:

The last holiday banner, for Halloween, lasted thirty days, and it's safe to assume that the Xmas banner will run for 30 days as well. 

Nothing prevents two seasonal banners from overlapping. The two summer banners overlapped by a few days.

Limited banners look like they were all intended to run for the usual ~2 weeks, but had their length extended to give players more time to pull from them. If you look at the new character release schedule, limited banners don't take the place of two normal new-character banners; they simply last longer and overlap the next banner.

[Othin]

25 minutes ago, TadpoleSuperHero said:

Curious why so many are speculating a Tempest Trials for the Christmas banner. In the past, every Seasonal banner has been accompanied by new Paralogues. That seems the most likely scenario (and I'd be very grateful for the orbs, especially if it also adds to the Chain Challenges)

Each of the past three mid-month banners have been followed by a TT associated with them. No need for a seasonal banner to be any different, especially after we had a seasonal gauntlet a few months ago.

Not in place of associated story maps or anything, but in addition to them.

[mampfoid]

I don't care too much about what characters from what game will be in the banner, but I'm hoping for cool art and perhaps a green Cav or a flier. 

[Ice Dragon]

7 minutes ago, Othin said:

Each of the past three mid-month banners have been followed by a TT associated with them.

You're looking for patterns where there might only be coincidence. The most recent three mid-month banners have coincidentally also been the most recent three non-limited new-character banners.

Also, I don't think the developers care to differentiate new-character banners by "start of month" and "mid-month" to begin with.

[Othin]

Just now, Ice Dragon said:

You're looking for patterns where there might only be coincidence. The most recent three mid-month banners have coincidentally also been the most recent three non-limited new-character banners.

Also, I don't think the developers care to differentiate new-character banners by "start of month" and "mid-month" to begin with.

Start of month and mid-month is just relevant because of when the TTs happen. The past three TTs started in the second half of the month rather than the first half, and they all were based on the main banner that had just started, which was therefore the mid-month one.

It's possible that they'll change up the TT schedule again or base it on the Children of Fate banner, but I don't see any reason to assume that has to happen. I'm sure we'll eventually get one or more TTs with a seasonal theme, and this is just a case where it'd fit nicely because of how things are lining up.

[GinRei]

52 minutes ago, Alkaid said:

It's just speculation. I think it could go either way. I'm sure Christmas will run 30 days, and possibly at the start of January they could still drop a New Years banner so it'd end in time for Feburary, where I'm sure something else big will start for the anniversary of the game.

Considering it sounds like we might get another legendary banner at the end of the month, maybe they'll just go with that and skip New Years since that seems like a bit much going on all at once.

It's a gacha game.  There's never too many banners.  Give people options, else you get many feeling "my orbs are safe".  It still baffles me that they don't have some sort of static rotating gacha independent of whatever rate-up happens to be going on.

[Cute Chao]

1 hour ago, NoirCore said:

I'd argue the 3DS pandering isn't that big. Echoes is justified in that it just came out and now has as many characters as one of the Elibe games (and targeting games all games from a console (1 out of 5) seems sorta unfair), and until now, we've gotten NO Awakening or Fates banners and only one Awakening TT. As for VG winners, that's out of IS's hands minus choosing the participants, and even then that can't be controlled much.

 

I've already argued the opposite in this thread. It doesn't matter that Awakening hasn't had a banner yet. Many games are still playing catch up to it, since many don't have many of their units in, whereas it started with a good chunk of units in and got the first TT, plus it's had its ranks bolstered more and more by seasonals. There's not been a single seasonal that hasn't had an Awakening unit on (with the exception of Nohrian Summer, which was a direct counter to Ylissian Summer). 

So it's not really pandering to 3DS, it's pandering mostly to Conquest and Awakening with the seasonals. I would love to see seasonals of more units, as both a new and old games fan, even though I've liked many of the seasonals so far. It just seems boring if they're going to keep up this trend, although I can see it happening for money reasons. 

If I had the choice, I'd happily get them to swap. Bring out a gen 2 banner for Awakening and give us some other seasonals! 

But then we're still waiting on a Thracian banner and RD banner to bring their actual lords into the game...

[Ice Dragon]

17 minutes ago, Othin said:

It's possible that they'll change up the TT schedule again or base it on the Children of Fate banner, but I don't see any reason to assume that has to happen.

You're making the assumption that the pattern is intentional and not just a coincidence of timing.

[Othin]

4 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

You're making the assumption that the pattern is intentional and not just a coincidence of timing.

I'm not assuming anything. Like I said, it's possible that the pattern is the one you predicted; there's just no reason to insist that it has to be the case.

Do you think we'll ever see a seasonal TT?

[Alkaid]

16 minutes ago, GinRei said:

It's a gacha game.  There's never too many banners.  Give people options, else you get many feeling "my orbs are safe".  It still baffles me that they don't have some sort of static rotating gacha independent of whatever rate-up happens to be going on.

Sure, but I'm still not really expecting it since they haven't usually jammed so much stuff in together like that. The summer banners didn't overlap much, and if they let a New Years banner start around when the Christmas one would end that'd be kinda late for it. So It seems like they'd have drop a New Years banner at actual New Years which is like 2 weeks overlap into the Christmas one, which would also be right after or at the same time as the other hinted legendary hero banner.

If they do go for that, I don't really care, but I'd just be surprised since that seems a bit much for their usual behavior. New Years could even just be the second legendary banner instead of a new limited banner, which is more of what I'm thinking will happen.

Edited December 14, 2017 by Alkaid

[Ice Dragon]

1 minute ago, Othin said:

I'm not assuming anything. Like I said, it's possible that the pattern is the one you predicted; there's just no reason to insist that it has to be the case.

Do you think we'll ever see a seasonal TT?

I haven't actually predicted any pattern. I've only said that there are confounding variables in your interpretation that mean your perceived pattern could just be a coincidence.

Tempest Trials come. They have a theme. What that theme is is anyone's guess.

 

With the current state of the game, I could imagine another Mini Tempest Trials with another Marth as the reward with a seasonal theme. I will, in fact, be surprised if we have a full Tempest Trials with a seasonal theme and a seasonally themed reward. And it will be a mixed pleasantly surprised and disappointingly surprised because "free unit!", but "no merges".

[Anacybele]

If they do anything for New Year's, I reckon it'd be the Chinese new year, not the western one. I heard Japan celebrates the Chinese one.

[Ice Dragon]

1 minute ago, Anacybele said:

If they do anything for New Year's, I reckon it'd be the Chinese new year, not the western one. I heard Japan celebrates the Chinese one.

Japan definitely celebrates the January 1st one with bigger things (e.g. first sunrise, first shrine visit, great cleaning).

[Anacybele]

Just now, Ice Dragon said:

Japan definitely celebrates the January 1st one with bigger things (e.g. first sunrise, first shrine visit, great cleaning).

Oh, really? People always told me they like the Chinese one more. Huh.

[Rezzy]

It will be a crime if they pass up the opportunity to give the seasonal units Sleighing Weapons.

Robin's tree could be the Sleighing Lance.

[May]

1 hour ago, Anacybele said:

Oh, really? People always told me they like the Chinese one more. Huh.

They don’t celebrate Lunar New Year, as I have heard. Chinese, Vietnamese, and Korean people celebrate it.

[Flying Shogi]

On 12/14/2017 at 7:16 PM, Aera said:

They don’t celebrate Lunar New Year, as I have heard. Chinese, Vietnamese, and Korean people celebrate it.

This. Lunar New Year is celebrated in multiple Asian countries as Aera has said. 

Anyway, there's not much that will make me pull from this banner except maybe Bow Valor. Even then I might not pull for it. Red Tome Valor might also be an incentive but I don't use red mages enough for me to pull for it.  

Edited December 18, 2017 by tobuShogi

[Liliesgrace]

16 hours ago, Doof said:

As a Robin fanboy who has obsessed over the leaked Holiday art for him, the guy on that sillouette is not Male Robin, definitely. The shape doesn't match any of his art, and we have the full set of his art, so unless he was redrawn before this event was made, that guy is not Male Robin.

My bet is Chrom, the girl on that pic is definitely Lissa, and then we have the leaked Tharja and Male Robin to round up the banner.

Regardless of who it is, I am whaling on this banner. I will not be denied Christmas Robin.

This post is my spirit animal. 

I'll be over the moon if it's Chrom, Lissa, and Robin.

[Poimagic]

4 hours ago, mampfoid said:

I don't care too much about what characters from what game will be in the banner, but I'm hoping for cool art and perhaps a green Cav or a flier. 

Same here, but I only really care if there is a flier.

[May]

this btch is pulling for all of them

[Silverly]

Well, I’m conflicted. I don’t really care for ANYONE here enough to pull them in terms of character alone. On the other hand, some of these skills are fantastic (specifically the one on Lissa and Tharja plus RTome Valor) and I doubt they’re going to be on regular units for months to come. I’m more likely going to pass on this, but should I give in to greed I’d try for Tharja for both her B and C skills.

Also holy moly 3 armor units? Assuming their stats aren’t garbage, armor emblem is going to be a more painful than ever...

[Cute Chao]

2 hours ago, SilvertheShadow said:

Well, I’m conflicted. I don’t really care for ANYONE here enough to pull them in terms of character alone. On the other hand, some of these skills are fantastic (specifically the one on Lissa and Tharja plus RTome Valor) and I doubt they’re going to be on regular units for months to come. I’m more likely going to pass on this, but should I give in to greed I’d try for Tharja for both her B and C skills.

Also holy moly 3 armor units? Assuming their stats aren’t garbage, armor emblem is going to be a more painful than ever...

4 armour units. All of them are armours, for better or worse.

[Liliesgrace]

Yes, I'm so happy!!! 

Robin, Chrom, and Lissa!!

The armour unit is a surprise and I'll really need to work on learning how to use them correctly and efficiently, but Chrom does come with Pivot and I know that's worked for Hector though I'll need a dancer on the team to give another turn since the stat bonuses are for attacking first.

At first I panicked when I thought I'd have an extra Chrom with no Robin to pair with but then I realized I can just pair Christmas Chrom with female Robin. They're both green which I don't like since the other two pairs are balanced, but at least one's an armour and one's a mage. 

Monday cannot get here soon enough!

[Ledrert]

41 minutes ago, Liliesgrace said:

Yes, I'm so happy!!! 

Robin, Chrom, and Lissa!!

The armour unit is a surprise and I'll really need to work on learning how to use them correctly and efficiently, but Chrom does come with Pivot and I know that's worked for Hector though I'll need a dancer on the team to give another turn since the stat bonuses are for attacking first.

[...]

Monday cannot get here soon enough!

I feel the same. I didn't have any great armor units, but this banner will make me dig in it.

What stats bonus are you talking about ? Their weapons ? If so, it's if FOES attack first. Not the unit.

...Monday ? .......Oh... I saw the 17th, but I forgot that it's pacific time... Noooo, I have to wait for Monday night ? Gaaah.

[May]

7 minutes ago, Ledrert said:

I feel the same. I didn't have any great armor units, but this banner will make me dig in it.

What stats bonus are you talking about ? Their weapons ? If so, it's if FOES attack first. Not the unit.

...Monday ? .......Oh... I saw the 17th, but I forgot that it's pacific time... Noooo, I have to wait for Monday night ? Gaaah.

Sunday night, 11 PM! For pacific anyways.