Antihero Anonydraft Mafia (Game Over)

[C. C.]

oh wait think i understand your point nvm

[All Might]

I keep reading Endeavor's posts this phase and flip flopping on it but he's still the best lynch by far, if he had bothered putting out content like he did today D2 then maybe it'd be different. Between all the subbing and the way these lynches have gone I've lost all my motivation but I think analysing Beast vs Lapis will bring it back for me so get hype for that.

Sorry Beast but that means more WORDS for you to read. Good job powering through the thread, let's go over your analysis of me. To address the first point, neither vote had anything to do with the Kokichi self vote. Next two are gross oversimplifications. Especially the second since I go into great detail talking about how Kratos wasn't pushing their scum reads in a way that I thought was townie. Specifically his Titania suspicion. You missed my point with Mello in that I was saying that every thought they had I also had and that's why I thought they were town. It's different to just agreeing with me: it's the reasoning, the thought process, everything. I will gladly use other people to help form reads and opinions, this is a team game. Bouncing reads off of others and looking at things from a different perspective is always important.

Why am I scum though? Is it because I use a lot of words? Is Batter scummy simply for not being very active this phase?

[Olivier]

On 1/6/2018 at 5:05 AM, Titania Andersen said:

My point is more the numbers thing isn't something I'd be actively thinking about. He'd have to go "Oh Crowler claimed, let me see if that adds up with my [and my scumbuddies'] numbers." It doesn't make sense as mafia because you'd assume the SK would tell the truth about their number even moreso than mafia (the SK would know if they're caught lying that they're immediately dead), so mafia have no reason to assume someone would lie about their draft order

Mello is town because of this.

[All Might]

By the way I don't fully understand why the Mello townslip is not actually a townslip so could you explain that for me? I know you hate using them, but sometimes more WORDS is actually better.

[C. C.]

what do you think of beast @Toshio Ozaki

[Shiki Ryougi]

2 minutes ago, Omar Little said:

doesn't crawler flipping town actually mean mello is townier? Crawler was telling the truth about their numbers so that means that mello made a mistake? If crawler was the sk you'd have a point but they weren't.

From a scum PoV, it can be used to drive a mislynch further.  From a player PoV, if it was a drafting error, it affects the entire game.  Hence why I don't put too much stock into it.

Yes, Nagito, that includes your quote.

Just now, Toshio Ozaki said:

I keep reading Endeavor's posts this phase and flip flopping on it but he's still the best lynch by far, if he had bothered putting out content like he did today D2 then maybe it'd be different. Between all the subbing and the way these lynches have gone I've lost all my motivation but I think analysing Beast vs Lapis will bring it back for me so get hype for that.

Sorry Beast but that means more WORDS for you to read. Good job powering through the thread, let's go over your analysis of me. To address the first point, neither vote had anything to do with the Kokichi self vote. Next two are gross oversimplifications. Especially the second since I go into great detail talking about how Kratos wasn't pushing their scum reads in a way that I thought was townie. Specifically his Titania suspicion. You missed my point with Mello in that I was saying that every thought they had I also had and that's why I thought they were town. It's different to just agreeing with me: it's the reasoning, the thought process, everything. I will gladly use other people to help form reads and opinions, this is a team game. Bouncing reads off of others and looking at things from a different perspective is always important.

Why am I scum though? Is it because I use a lot of words? Is Batter scummy simply for not being very active this phase?

Well, as long as it means you actually have more than that Endeavor read, that's great.

If you're open to people that agree with your logic, mafia simply needs an opinion or two that jives, and you're less likely to suspect them.  If you're mafia, then it's a lot easier to take on someone else's opinion as your own.  No matter what you're alignment, it's bad play at best, and scummy at worst.

I lost my Lapis place again.  At this rate, I won't have time for Nagito/Kokichi.

[Shiki Ryougi]

Next: Lapis

First Lapis, come back, we need you.  The RP was a little weird, but I could understand her points.  I don't like this - vote or don't, but being passive about it accomplishes nothing.  Don't agree that Omar is town based on role, because night phases are great for thought-out posts without having to worry about a bunch of random notifications.  Likewise, don't agree with that Nagito vote, since prodding people based on a newly-flipped scum is legit, especially early in the phase.  I have no idea what this is supposed to mean.

I love the associative read with Nagito, since that seems to be Lapis' thing.  Like Toshio, I'm not really happy with this slot sitting on a single scum read.  Which means I need to read Nagito, despite the fact that I'm beginning to hallucinate a bit.

[All Might]

I have much more than just an Endeavor read considering I'm townreading 80% of the game.

It wasn't just one thought though. It happened over and over again and in the very short timeframe of the first 24 hours of D1. 

Explain why I am scummy please don't dodge the question.

18 minutes ago, Omar Little said:

what do you think of beast @Toshio Ozaki

They've put in a lot of effort but the analysis' aren't that townie. Mello's is really short and buzzwordy like. The Batter 's one is even shorter and basically warrants throwing shade on the slot for one shift in opinion. I actually agreed with the weird tone shift at the time but I read up more on his posts today and thought it all made sense to the point where I can't imagine him being scum. The problem with the analysis is that its very empty, I feel like Beats should have more to talk about than just his Titania vote and his switch onto Endeavor.

Then his analysis on me ignores a bunch of content from my posts, over generalises them and doesn't make it clear why I'm the main lynch priority. I guess it is early days in terms of him reading me though.

The best thing about him is that he looks at both sides which I'm not sure scum would bother doing. 

[Shiki Ryougi]

I read the entire game in one sitting.  You do that and tell me whether or not your brain would be fried.  I'll do a more detailed reading of Mello/Batter later.  But not now, because I have bigger fish to fry.

[C. C.]

oh derp didn't see yoy would analyze beast vs lapis toshio. sorry about the question.

i'm going to wait for beast to finish his reading. Because toshio does have other reads but i'm getting the impression they think toshio only has an endeavor read. Although a bit bothered because a lot of their statements seem to refer Toshio's ED1 posts where i don't see why having one read is bad. But ugh beast suspecting toshio is definitely making me unsure because scum bussing now would be incredibly dumb.

I did miss something from toshio that bothers me that came back cuz beast linked a post of theirs in his case. this sounds bad because i only said i didn't understand the sentiment but i can see how it could be twisted as scummy. Toshio calls Crawler scummy because his votes are "easy" which isn't very good because it dismisses the actual case. People shouldn't be forced to make reads based on what's "difficult" but who they actually think is scum. I think other people did this too and they're bad. I'll go look for them later and point them out because i am not going through this thread all over again right now.  I also feel like Toshio misreps some of Crawler's opinions. He says crawler thinks that beast is bad because of badly explained opinions.

quoted below is one of crawler's thoughts about beast

"Not everyone is going to be around to make the first observation, and that's okay. But why do you seem so self-conscious about how you look in thread? I'm not convinced."

"Mafia is never a game of absolutes. You can't contribute if you think you need a perfect case to indict someone, you're just going to take too long otherwise. Contribute in imperfect amounts, it's just how this works."

"Since you're not actually telling us what you opinion is, I don't know if this is just a holdover from when you voted Kratos due to his "attitude" or whether you actually have more opinions on his play. The fact that you're very non-committal to any sort of justification does not sit well with me."

The only point where I think it comes down to opinion is maybe the second point but the others actually give reasons for why beast is scummy, (self conscious and non commitalness). His original vote was beast was making fluff posts and had limited opinions. Nothing to do with bad opinions and crawler actually gives some justification for why he thinks beast is scummy which makes me think toshio misrepped crawler.

before making any further action i want to wait till beast is completely done for a reason.

 

 

 

  

[Olivier]

28 minutes ago, The Batter said:

Komaeda's hard defense of the Endeavor wagon bundled with no convincing alternatives followed by him changing his mind on it doesn't look good. It reads as scum starting out posturing since the Endeavor lynch is incredibly likely to happen no matter what they do, only to take the easy way out so nobody holds them to posting new content on Beast and their other suspects.

I wouldn't need to change my mind as scum.  I did reread Beast, and the only thing that pinged me was the self deprecation.  Admittedly, I could have reread you/Toshio/Omar as well, but I don't think I'd get anything out of it that I hadn't before.

3 hours ago, Beast said:

I'm done with my initial read, and I have a gigantic headache.  Following everyone's logic is damn hard when I'm thrown into a situation where there may or may not be a near-hammer.  I'll start with an impressionpost, then reread everyone in-depth and get something more solid.

• Screw all of you for lynching my strongest townread on D1. I actually liked Crowler's logic, right up until that sub request.
• I didn't have a very positive opinion about Endeavor until here.  This was the towniest reaction to those votes that I could think of.  The only reason why I'd place a vote here at this point would be on associative reads and lack of time.  Is there enough time to move the wagon?
• I regret subbing in already.

What votes on both of the lynches are scummy and why?  If you're not reading scum intent in the votes, then don't even bother complaining in the first place, it's frustrating to listen too.

Why is the reaction townie?

All of your points in this post have been complaining over actual reads.  This applies to your other posts as well.  You point out individual portions that you like/dislike, but you're not drawing any overall conclusions on these slots, which bothers me.

33 minutes ago, Beast said:

From a scum PoV, it can be used to drive a mislynch further.  From a player PoV, if it was a drafting error, it affects the entire game.  Hence why I don't put too much stock into it.

Yes, Nagito, that includes your quote.

Why would it come from a scum PoV?  Why would scum think "this guy is definitely lying" and not "I fucked up"?  If you think it's faked, explain how it reads as faked to you.

##Vote: Beast

[Shiki Ryougi]

Just now, Nagito Komaeda said:

Why would it come from a scum PoV?  Why would scum think "this guy is definitely lying" and not "I fucked up"?  If you think it's faked, explain how it reads as faked to you.

##Vote: Beast

I think it's null, not faked. There's nothing more to it.

[C. C.]

oh derp didn't see yoy would analyze beast vs lapis toshio. sorry about the question.

i'm going to wait for beast to finish his reading. Because toshio does have other reads but i'm getting the impression they think toshio only has an endeavor read. Although a bit bothered because a lot of their statements seem to refer Toshio's ED1 posts where i don't see why having one read is bad. But ugh beast suspecting toshio is definitely making me unsure because scum bussing now would be incredibly dumb. I know beast hasn't technically voted for toshio but i assume he's not bothering to make a vote because it doesn't matter like me.

I did miss something from toshio that bothers me that came back cuz beast linked a post of theirs in his case. this sounds bad because i only said i didn't understand the sentiment but i can see how it could be twisted as scummy. Toshio calls Crawler scummy because his votes are "easy" which isn't very good because it dismisses the actual case. People shouldn't be forced to make reads based on what's "difficult" but who they actually think is scum. I think other people did this too and they're bad. I'll go look for them later and point them out because i am not going through this thread all over again right now.  I also feel like Toshio misreps some of Crawler's opinions. He says crawler thinks that beast is bad because of badly explained opinions.

quoted below is one of crawler's thoughts about beast

"Not everyone is going to be around to make the first observation, and that's okay. But why do you seem so self-conscious about how you look in thread? I'm not convinced."

"Mafia is never a game of absolutes. You can't contribute if you think you need a perfect case to indict someone, you're just going to take too long otherwise. Contribute in imperfect amounts, it's just how this works."

"Since you're not actually telling us what you opinion is, I don't know if this is just a holdover from when you voted Kratos due to his "attitude" or whether you actually have more opinions on his play. The fact that you're very non-committal to any sort of justification does not sit well with me."

The only point where I think it comes down to opinion is maybe the second point but the others actually give reasons for why beast is scummy, (self conscious and non commitalness). His original vote was beast was making fluff posts and had limited opinions. Nothing to do with bad opinions and crawler actually gives some justification for why he thinks beast is scummy which makes me think toshio misrepped crawler.

 

 

 

  

[C. C.]

welp editor deleted last portion of post. I'm gonna wait to do anything until beast is finished for a reason

[Rain Nijika]

Even if Crowler was SK, why would scum (outside of WIFOM) risk that, ignoring that it was a muck up?  Like, let's assume in that situation Crowler was lying about his pick order for some reason and Scum!Mello notices this.  Mafello claims pick order.

Best case scenario: Crowler gets lynched as serial killer. Mello gets town cred. The mafia are in a bad position because a kill source to whittle the town has been eliminated.  (Reminder: this is our second of at least 2 MLs. If scum doesn't have vengeful, I think we have three, and that's entirely due to the n1 super crossfire).

Worst case scenario: Crowler gets lynched as town (power, or vanilla in absolute worst case). Mello gets rolled the next day because he provoked that cc and thus was probably lying (assuming no corrections by crowler). The mafia are in a bad position because they just went one for one over a dumb town fake in a low power setup.

There was leeway to redirect the lynch, so why wouldn't they, with private knowledge that Crowler is lying, just let him lie until night phase and take a shot there? He wasn't townie enough to be doc protected had he survived D1, so at worst you ping the SK (good for later) and at best you nail a PR without taking any risk.

It just doesn't make sense for a scum pov, from what I'm seeing.

@ searead post:

Your first point on me is from my defunct alter-ego, and I do not know what their thought process was, so I'm not going to waste text defending them. It should be interesting to note you go from "come back

That second link is an add on to the Nagito case in my first post, and it's the part where I'm going on about Nagito's Toshio/Rick analysis just a few posts after N1 flip. If that's all you have, you've basically ignored 2- pages of my content to pull that read up. Is that other stuff null or ...?

I've been cut, so stopping here.

[Rain Nijika]

Omar you double posted rip in peace

 

[Olivier]

Actually, @Beast, why was Dr. Crowler of all people your strongest townread?  I know if someone made a bad vote on my slot, they wouldn't be my strongest townread.

@Omar Little You mentioned that Toshio dismissed Dr. Crowler's case (by calling his vote easy) but that he also misrepped it.  How can both of these be true?  He'd have to acknowledge the case in order to misrep it.  FTR, I don't agree w/either of these accusations, but Toshio can defend himself if he's as great of a doctor as he claims.

 

[Rain Nijika]

I did not put together that post very well. I'm sorry.

Quote

Your first point on me is from my defunct alter-ego, and I do not know what their thought process was, so I'm not going to waste text defending them. It should be interesting to note you go from (paraphrasing) "First Lapis, you are better than your sub" to "I don't like this" about them near-instantaneously.

(I removed the come back because I think verbatim using the quote would be awkward to write around when amending my post.)

Quote

2-3 pages

Note this estimate's wrong, I had about 50 posts since sub-in but a good portion of them are smaller posts. There's still probably a page of content, however, that he omitted.

And was the one scum read thing directed at my slot? That's not clear at all. Point me to where Toshio said it please. If you're saying it applies to both Toshio and myself, you're wrong.

[C. C.]

1 minute ago, Nagito Komaeda said:

Actually, @Beast, why was Dr. Crowler of all people your strongest townread?  I know if someone made a bad vote on my slot, they wouldn't be my strongest townread.

@Omar Little You mentioned that Toshio dismissed Dr. Crowler's case (by calling his vote easy) but that he also misrepped it.  How can both of these be true?  He'd have to acknowledge the case in order to misrep it.  FTR, I don't agree w/either of these accusations, but Toshio can defend himself if he's as great of a doctor as he claims.

 

hmm kind of hard to explain my feeling. Maybe misrep wasn't even the right word, I guess another way to explain is that it feels like toshio dismisses crawler's reads as "beast is bad cuz bad opinions" when crawler gave justification and uses this to call crawler's votes "easy" which again just feels like it's dismissing crawlers actual case. Why is easy bad exactly?

[Rain Nijika]

 

I'm going to head off, but I'll be back well before deadline. Endeavour might not be since they're probably going to be prodded. I still think they're a good lynch for aforementioned reasons but a new challenger has appeared for that.

@The Batter @Kokichi Ouma @Mello What are your thoughts on New Beast? Are you going to be around for deadline?

[BBM]

Votals 3.3

Endeavor (4): Lapis Lazuli, Kokichi Ouma, Mello
Beast (2): The Batter, Nagito Komaeda
Lapis Lazuli (1): Endeavor

Not Voting (3): Beast, Omar Little, Toshio Ozaki

Slightly less than 14 hours left in the phase. 5 votes to hammer.

[Olivier]

@Lapis Lazuli What are YOUR thoughts on New Beast?

[Shiki Ryougi]

2 minutes ago, Nagito Komaeda said:

Actually, @Beast, why was Dr. Crowler of all people your strongest townread?  I know if someone made a bad vote on my slot, they wouldn't be my strongest townread.

@Omar Little You mentioned that Toshio dismissed Dr. Crowler's case (by calling his vote easy) but that he also misrepped it.  How can both of these be true?  He'd have to acknowledge the case in order to misrep it.  FTR, I don't agree w/either of these accusations, but Toshio can defend himself if he's as great of a doctor as he claims.

 

Starting here, it's a RVS analysis.  Except there's a lot of it.  I agree with that vote on my slot earlier, because whoever the hell had this slot originally had a shoddy early-mid D1 showing.  That's the time to poke, prod, and talk with everyone, not clam up.  Which means I have very limited time to interact with as many of you as possible, so I can be useful if I'm lynched/killed.  Biggest thing that bugs me about this is the lack of analysis on everyone else.  Bugging the inactive slot is one thing, but it also requires associative reads from the active players.

From what I can read, it looks like the issue with Crowler was targeting not-active players.  Yet Faye was lynched and Endeavor was at L-1 for a while.  This is really hypocritical, and I suspect it's part of the reason why I'm having issues with my reads and rereads.

34 minutes ago, Lapis Lazuli said:

Even if Crowler was SK, why would scum (outside of WIFOM) risk that, ignoring that it was a muck up?  Like, let's assume in that situation Crowler was lying about his pick order for some reason and Scum!Mello notices this.  Mafello claims pick order.

Best case scenario: Crowler gets lynched as serial killer. Mello gets town cred. The mafia are in a bad position because a kill source to whittle the town has been eliminated.  (Reminder: this is our second of at least 2 MLs. If scum doesn't have vengeful, I think we have three, and that's entirely due to the n1 super crossfire).

Worst case scenario: Crowler gets lynched as town (power, or vanilla in absolute worst case). Mello gets rolled the next day because he provoked that cc and thus was probably lying (assuming no corrections by crowler). The mafia are in a bad position because they just went one for one over a dumb town fake in a low power setup.

There was leeway to redirect the lynch, so why wouldn't they, with private knowledge that Crowler is lying, just let him lie until night phase and take a shot there? He wasn't townie enough to be doc protected had he survived D1, so at worst you ping the SK (good for later) and at best you nail a PR without taking any risk.

It just doesn't make sense for a scum pov, from what I'm seeing.

@ searead post:

Your first point on me is from my defunct alter-ego, and I do not know what their thought process was, so I'm not going to waste text defending them. It should be interesting to note you go from "come back

That second link is an add on to the Nagito case in my first post, and it's the part where I'm going on about Nagito's Toshio/Rick analysis just a few posts after N1 flip. If that's all you have, you've basically ignored 2- pages of my content to pull that read up. Is that other stuff null or ...?

I've been cut, so stopping here.

Yet Mello wasn't lynched on D2, Faye was.

The more I read of this townslip, the more convinced I am that it's a nullslip.  Yes, I'm looking at it from hindsight, but the supposed actions that should've happened, well, didn't.  And Crowler outright claimed vanilla, so why even bother with the night kill?  He was prime mislynch material.

If I'm not posting stuff from you (or anyone else), it means it didn't ping me enough to comment on it.  There's 700+ posts in this game, I don't have time for a post-by-post breakdown of every last person.

@Omar Little I'm sorry this is taking a while.  I started on Nagito, and then THIS happened.

To the rest of the game: Why would I raise eight hundred ways of hell when Endeavor was at L-1, and WHY would I attempt to hard-defend him?  And then, why would I post a bunch of things that are contradictory to the rest of the game logic?  Scum strategy would be to be more active than the last two posters, without drawing lynch attention away from Endeavor.  I'm going to make myself useful, even if I'm a corpse.

Now back to rereading Nagito.  Who has way more posts than anyone else so far. FML.

[Rain Nijika]

@Nagito Komaeda Less than kind. To the point where I'm tempted to partially quote the serial killer. (Might be why I'm pinging those players.)

I see the Beast post. I see (what I think is) WIFOM. I'm actually going to bed because it's actually morning where I am in the world. I will try and get back to this later.

[Olivier]

@Omar Little Yeah, I can definitely understand why you'd think he easily dismissed Dr. Crowler's content; that's a good point.  You're not diving deep enough, though.  Why is this dismissal more likely to come from scum considering that it was a secondary scum read?

@Beast My problem isn't that I feel the townslip is absolute but rather you're not explaining very well why it's null.  Hard defending the person who's about to flip makes sense if you're scum and he's town, which is why my vote is on you.  My problem with your defense is it boils down to "this one post is townie" and doesn't address any of the cases on him at all.  Obviously you're not bothering to make the effort to change anyone's minds, you're not even offering up a counterwagon despite being bothered by like ten players.  The only thing your hard defense is going to accomplish is making you look better if he flips town.  Being contradictory to the rest of the game logic is more likely to come from town (scum would prefer not to shake up such an apathetic game state).  However, you're not actually posting any definite conclusions despite rereading several players, which reads more as scum to me.