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[DATAMINE] Special Heroes Coming! Hoshidan New Years Banner - From Dec. 31


Coolmanio
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11 hours ago, SlipperySlippy said:

Honestly... 

Back to back seasonals (let alone the gratuitous amount of them in the first place) and Legendary Hero banner is beyond frustrating. I'd ask for a refund on money I've spent in the past if I was allowed to. :\

Pretty sure we all got that buyer's remorse. God knows how much I regret rolling for Ninian. *groans*

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Thinking about it, I'm really glad I pulled for Christmas Robin when I did. My original plan was to wait and see if the New Year's banner would have any units I really needed, and if I had, there's no way I would have gone for him rather than saving all my orbs for. But I got impatient, pulled for him anyway, got him in only like 100 orbs, and he's already proved his worth as one of my most important characters. Well worth it.

Looking forward towards Sunday, this is the second time I've planned a double-banner pulling chain like this: holding off on a banner I want to pull from, so I can pull from a later overlapping one first and then hopefully get what I want from that with enough orbs left over to use on the earlier one. The other time was in August, although by now I think I was wrong to hold off back then, since Summer Corrin has proved to be much more valuable than Ninian and Genny. Of course I can't really complain since I ended up getting Summer Corrin anyway, and I think making that whole plan really helped me form good habits about how to be careful with my orbs.

With my current reserves, I think I can accumulate like 250 orbs by the end of Gunnthra's banner if I stay aggressive about claiming available orbs from the TT and other places. That's probably a lot less than the average to get both Azura and Gunnthra, but it's enough for a decent shot at it. If it takes the usual ~200 orbs to get Azura, that leaves ~50 for Gunnthra's banner. (200 is probably a bit of an overestimate since she's green, but it's a nice and round number that's a close enough guess for average orb costs of a character you're sniping for, at least on a typical banner.) Since it's a legendary banner, that's an average of like one 5* hero, but probably not Gunnthra herself. Still worth going for, though, and I've gotten lucky plenty of times before.

Whether or not I get Gunnthra, I think I have pretty safe odds of getting Azura sometime this month, and if I do, I think she'll replace Hinoka on Team Flying Death Princesses. Hinoka doesn't always really pull her weight outside of Hone Fliers support, since she can't contribute much to combat that Elincia/Corrin/Camilla can't do better, and the team could really use an easy way to fit in a dancer. She's even a princess, too! It'll screw up my supports, though. I don't want to have to make Hinoka and Camilla break up, and I don't want to pair Camilla with Azura either so that'd mean splitting up Elincia and Corrin as well. I'm definitely not pairing Corrin with Camilla, so I guess that'd turn it into Elincia/Camilla and Corrin/Azura. Corrin's girlfriend leaves her for her sister, RIP.

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So I just watched the video for the new heroes... M. Corrin was on the battle map but not on the summon banner.... I wonder if that means we're getting a free character? Or if he'll be obtainable some other way? Or if there was just some sort of error.

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Just now, mcsilas said:

New Video is up.

and it's only a 3 unit banner?!?

Good news for Takumi hunters, since Corrin ins't in it...

....so another seasonal TT with Corrin as a reward?!?!!?

I really hope it's not another seasonal TT. XD But even if it is, at least that means we MIGHT get a new reward. But this one is a full month banner too. I wonder if they're going to be screwy like they were with Ayra and have a random second banner with M. Corrin on it?

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And they couldn't have made Azura a reward. We get a defensive archer with lackluster speed and without close counter as a present. And Corrin of all people is a gift.

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I'm going with M!Corrin being in the next Voting Gauntlet/Tempest Trials banner until I'm proved wrong. It's better this way instead of thinking about him being a gift and getting disappointed because he isn't one (although I don't want him at all...but that's my bias talking).

Edit: Guess I just got proved wrong by the official Twitter account. Still I'm going to make Corrin fodder.

Edited by Alexmender
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Oh, cool. Corrin isn't on the banner. And since he's not in the video at all (other than appearing on the map), I'm assuming that means he'll be a free unit instead of on another banner (since Rhajat was on another banner and still got a spot in the video).

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2 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Oh, cool. Corrin isn't on the banner. And since he's not in the video at all (other than appearing on the map), I'm assuming that means he'll be a free unit instead of on another banner (since Rhajat was on another banner and still got a spot in the video).

The FEH twitter account confirmed there being a new unit as a reward for a event

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5 minutes ago, Coolmanio said:

 

This says that "I have received information that you will be receiving one new unit as a reward for a January event'!

Looks like a free unit!!

That's...suspiciously generous..

@Rafiel's Aria Actually on second thought I was beginning to think maybe they'll put him in a Voting Gauntlet banner and have him as the Ayra/Rhajat

But I guess giving him free works too because he's not the most popular lord (even female one is more popular). At least Takumi fans can sigh in relief as they enter colourless hell..

Still...only 1 actual Hoshidan in a Hoshidan New Year banner....that makes it worse lol

Although on the other hand, you get a representative of all 3 routes....so it's about unity... yay? 

Oh and Misty Lee sounds better as Camilla now at least.

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I just watched the video and about lost it when I didn't see Corrin as available but with the Twitter account implying he will hopefully be the free unit my rage is subsided for the moment. 

Even if he's not free and is included in a later banner that's fine, especially if he ends up not sharing a color with other units.

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10 minutes ago, silveraura25 said:

The FEH twitter account confirmed there being a new unit as a reward for a event

I didn't bother to edit my post after reading the Twitter post.

 

7 minutes ago, silveraura25 said:

If this is how they're gonna do seasonal banners from now on them I'm okay with it.

As long as it's the least useful character they give out for free.

I don't like being locked to neutral nature and limited merges. It's nice for free-to-players, but it's pretty much a throwaway character for people who pay and people who have played long enough to start merging up their summonable units (I'm pretty sure a +10 Beruka would be better than a +4 Michalis if it weren't for Hauteclere's unique refine).

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Not to look the gift horse in the mouth, but I'll be a bit disappointed if we simply get Corrin for free and can't just pick one of the banner units ourselves. Seeing as he's not on the banner though, it seems that might be the case.

Mainly saying that since I'd have loved to cut down on the hell that I'll likely face going for both Azura and Camilla.. I'd be fine with just a free neutral copy of either.

Edited by Alkaid
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1 minute ago, Ice Dragon said:

I didn't bother to edit my post after reading the Twitter post.

 

As long as it's the least useful character they give out for free.

I don't like being locked to neutral nature and limited merges. It's nice for free-to-players, but it's pretty much a throwaway character for people who pay and people who have played long enough to start merging up their summonable units (I'm pretty sure a +10 Beruka would be better than a +4 Michalis if it weren't for Hauteclere's unique refine).

Or they do this to negate units sharing the same colour.

I am totally okay with this!

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4 minutes ago, Coolmanio said:

Or they do this to negate units sharing the same colour.

Two characters sharing a color doesn't make a big difference in the rate of getting a specific character, though. It makes it more likely you'll get pity-broken, but it doesn't significantly affect the per-pull chance of pulling a specific character.

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1 minute ago, Ice Dragon said:

Two characters sharing a color doesn't make a big difference in the rate of getting a specific character, though. It makes it more likely you'll get pity-broken, but it doesn't significantly affect the per-pull chance of pulling a specific character.

Really? Wouldn't it theoretically cut the 3% rate down to 1.5% per character?

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Just now, Ice Dragon said:

Two characters sharing a color doesn't make a big difference in the rate of getting a specific character, though. It makes it more likely you'll get pity-broken, but it doesn't significantly affect the per-pull chance of pulling a specific character.

My luck when characters share a color has always been dismal so I tend to disbelieve this just due to said rotten luck. Wanted spring Chrom, got spring Camilla. Wanted Halloween Sakura, got Halloween Jakob. Even when I have the funds to pull for multiples when characters share a color I usually always end up with a 2:1 or even 3:1 ratio of unwanteds versus wanteds.

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I know it technically sharing colors don't have a big impact, but desire sensor somehow negates all of the probability and throws the one I don't want at me lmao. It just knows. So I'm really glad corn's not on the banner so I can snipe for taco without fear lol

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13 minutes ago, Coolmanio said:

Really? Wouldn't it theoretically cut the 3% rate down to 1.5% per character?

That's not how it works. (I feel like I have to explain this a lot.)

The game splits the rate evenly across all of the characters in one rarity group (focus being a separate group from standard 5-stars), pulls 5 characters (with replacement, for those savvy in probability terminology), and covers them with an umbrella of each other. This is the simplest means of making sure the advertised rates are accurate.

When one color has more focus representation than others, the rate of getting an umbrella of that color is increased by a large enough amount (because that color now has a bigger share of the total pullable characters) that it offsets the "sharedness". As colors become less balanced (such as for the all-green Wyvern Knights Voting Gauntlet banner), that increase becomes less and less able to offset the "sharedness", but for 2 characters out of 4, it's still enough of an offset to not matter.

 

10 minutes ago, Liliesgrace said:

My luck when characters share a color has always been dismal so I tend to disbelieve this just due to said rotten luck.

Superstition is a strong force, but believing the earth is flat doesn't make the earth flat.

Edited by Ice Dragon
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While I'm happy for the confirmation that Corrin will be a free character (yay for making it easier to get Takumi while still getting the other one I want), I'm a bit worried in case this sets a precedent for future seasonal banners...

I swear, if we start getting three person, female weighted seasonals as well as main...

Urgh, it's Fire Emblem. I'm still going to go for it -.- Although I'll definitely think a lot harder before dropping any money in this game and I fully intend to complain via feedback for every single one.

Might just be me being pessimistic. I'll try to remain hopeful for now and say yay, free Corrin :D

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