Cuphead In: Don't Deal With the Mafia (Game Over)

[C. C.]

I don't disagree with any of your points against Baroness. I just don't think Baroness can be scum with Cala or Grim (and it seems like you agree with this). I guess FYPOV I make sense as a buddy for Baroness but I don't actually think this is the case. Like I said near the start of the day it doesn't make sense for me to vote both my buddies on D1, switch to defending them both on D2, and then switch to attacking my remaining buddy on D3 again even though I would want them to survive for longer after my first buddy died. You might say that I decided to bus Baroness to get me towncred to survive longer, but then why wouldn't I have stayed on the Baroness wagon and pushed that lynch through? and if your response to that is that I saw the Baroness wagon was losing steam and saw it as an opportunity to switch off, that would be wrong because at the time I changed votes, the votes were tied 4/4 between Sally and Baroness, so the Baroness lynch definitely still had a lot of support. And also, why wouldn't I have voted Sally in this situation, rather than try to start a third wagon from scratch?

I'll agree with you that I didn't think there was much of a problem with Grim's D1/D2; it was why he was lower on my priority list than both Sally and Hilda. And in a vacuum he would be lower than Baroness too. But the Grim/Cala makes more sense than any other scumteam combo IMO (FYPOV Grim/Captain makes sense too I guess).

more in a bit I have to change locations

[Cú Chulainn]

On 2/9/2018 at 1:06 AM, Grim Matchstick said:

how can mafia be real if our eyes aren't real

someone kill me so I can have the sweet release of death, and other such laments

it's time for the GRIM MATCHSTICK'S SALLY STAGEPLAY ANALYSIS which the thread slowed to a screeching halt in anticipation of this is a joke

I think what bothers me as I read Sally isn't that they feel indecisive or waffle-y, but that I don't feel like they're making a real effort to resolve their indecisiveness. They'll state stuff like "Werner's vote was fine but them emphasizing it as townie wasn't" and then just... leave it. It's difficult for me to put into words why this bugs me, but it makes me feel like they're not really trying to solve the game and are instead just making posts to blend in. However, they DO definitely change their mind on Werner when Werner is still the leading wagon. I'm a bit conflicted here, since on one hand if they tunneled and Werner flips town (which even ignoring my read on Werner would be the likely result if Sally's scum) I think it reflects kinda badly on them? On the other, they then proceed to kickstart the Djimmi wagon which was... also a mislynch? However, this one had some building consensus of "Djimmi might be lurkscum" in offhand remarks from a lot of players whereas the Werner wagon had pretty much died. It also bugs me that Sally doesn't really change their read on Werner for anything Werner actually did within the time frame of Sally's posts and they just thought about it a lot and came to a conclusion.

Sally's towniest post is probably the response to Briney's attempt to turbo her.

But the Briney townread is also really ??? Sally seems to be basing this off role/actionspec which is super weird. I'm... not sure what to make of this honestly. I don't get what benefit town has for making this sort of post, I feel like maybe she's trying to appease/buddy with Briney?

The way Sally approaches the Cala/Rumor wagons is really bad, and it's kind of weird because I feel like her approach is suddenly a lot different from D1 (I don't think this is really alignment indicative it's just weird). Sally has gone from half-defending Rumor D1 to finding Rumor scummy D2 when very little for Rumor has changed, and has really nothing positive to say about Cala but ends up voting Rumor in what basically amounts to a pressure vote, as they don't want to put Cala at L-1.

I also dislike how Sally approaches the Cala wagon. People are on her for not factoring it into her reads or trying to improve her reads on the people on the wagon (which I agree with), but I don't really have any idea who she finds scummiest of them or anything. She lists 3 names (Rumor, Cagney, and Kahl) and I'm not sure which she finds scummy of them? I have to assume Rumor is scummiest because Rumor is the only one Sally is actually pressuring, and then I guess Cagney because Kahl only got a parentheses remark? 

Overall, reading through Sally's posts and Briney's analysis I have to say I agree with the case

Of the 3 wagons today (Rumor, Cala, Sally) I'm definitely not lynching Cala. I still think BvBB is the scummiest player in the thread and people are sleeping on this. I'm bothered that Rumor just disappeared but shit happens so it's pretty NAI. Because of this I'll probably vote Sally

I should be around to consolidate tomorrow, I legit forgot we need hammer today because it wasn't needed D1 >_>

 

I'm actually in the middle of my other post but I found something extremely weird starting here.  A massive wall post against Sally shortly after voting me.  This seems to like it has a much stronger reasoning for voting Sally > me but people do what they want, it's based on opinions.  However the bolded line is very interesting.  This was shortly before the cop claim from Wally.  Basically placing Sally at the top of the list, rumor being NAI and a 'would not lynch' Cala.   I heavily dislike this post especially even more so after the Sally flip.  This post wasn't included in the other post as it was a quote Pre-day 3.

Back to my other post.

[Estelle]

2 minutes ago, Baroness Von Bon Bon said:

I'm actually in the middle of my other post but I found something extremely weird starting here.  A massive wall post against Sally shortly after voting me.  This seems to like it has a much stronger reasoning for voting Sally > me but people do what they want, it's based on opinions.  However the bolded line is very interesting.  This was shortly before the cop claim from Wally.  Basically placing Sally at the top of the list, rumor being NAI and a 'would not lynch' Cala.   I heavily dislike this post especially even more so after the Sally flip.  This post wasn't included in the other post as it was a quote Pre-day 3.

Back to my other post.

I remember that post because I asked him what his read on Sally was.  It's literally the post right above it.

[Cú Chulainn]

On 2/11/2018 at 6:22 AM, Grim Matchstick said:

why am I awake at this hour

reading but my vote is like 99% gonna be on baroness

Starting from here we have every post from grim since the start of day 3, except one, the one not here is just him voting someone, nothing else in it.  PReviously before this was all of his day 2 posts, the only things I feel that have any merit in them is the fact that he was apparently feeling extremely bad about me most of the day phase while posting a MASSIVE wall post against Sally(who has flipped town) that also felt like it had A LOT more weight and power behind it than his arguments against me.  But let's start here in day 3.  Just a blank post, start of the day phase this doesn't really matter much, wondering why he didn't just vote me though?

On 2/11/2018 at 8:40 AM, Grim Matchstick said:

I don't think there's evidence of a scum role cop. I initially backed off Beppi in part because he heavily implied he was a power role. Later in the day he also made several comments heavily implying he was Doc specifically. Werner's case on Sally seems to be implying that Rumor and Sally both crumbed doc with a save on Briney, which means they're both mafia because... uh. 

Bonbon's content still sucks, her reaction to cases yesterday was to accuse me of not reading her post and not really explain herself at all? You can't deny that a significant amount of your cases were predicated on "This person is playing in a way I disagree with, they must be scum" without connecting it from playing poorly to being scummy and the reaction feels like scum not knowing what else to do but act indignant and hope people buy the act

Sally's cases are kind of whatever. idk I'll need to see what her posts today bring

Feeling really confident that my Cala townread was accurate after Rumor flipped scum

Wally is obvtown imo, the only scenario where I see him being scum would be no godfather and town having an unclaimed PR and he bussed Rumor for the cred. I don't think this is a likely scenario since I also read his D2 as tonally town but I'm throwing it out there 'cause I don't want to die and see people throw lategame

Cagney is obvtown unless Beppi was the most obvious Doc in the world yet was also incredibly misleading about his save (less than 1% chance of this imo)

wouldn't lynch Werner, I don't really agree with a lot of their cases but this is standard for that player and they're towntelling really hard

Briney is obviously a good player, so even ignoring my meta read, I'll go into why I think they're town a bit despite bad Rumor interactions: Basically, I think Briney is smart enough to know that hard defending Rumor is going to look bad if Rumor flips scum, and would make some sort of effort to have a better interaction? It'd be pretty cocky to think he could just hard defend his scumbuddy who is barely doing shit and self-admittedly is a bad scum player (which no doubt Briney would've known from the start of the game), and while the person I'm thinking of has definitely made cocky scumplays in the past, this game doesn't really fit their MO. And if I'm wrong about their identity... well, then making cocky scumplays doesn't really fit anyone else's MO period.

I suck at reading new/inexperienced players so Hilda is just kind of someone who posts and I go "cool, I hope someone else can make heads or tails of your slot"

Kahl is in this weird spot where I don't really remember their posts other than nothing stood out to me as scummy and they generally felt pure/honest, so I've got a townread there and I don't feel like making a serious reread rn

idk I'm pretty demotivated right now, I feel like we just lynch Baroness+Sally and game is over easy easy 

So let's talk about this post and Grim's playstyle of the game.  Bolded town reads.  Underlined scum reads. Italicized reads that were null, or could go either way.  Literally in this post he has 2 scum reads. Period.  The rest of his are all town reads except Hilda, who was basically null and could swing in whatever way he wanted. This is good for scum.  Scum would generally leave a newbie in a state of limbo because it allows them to go multiple ways.  The Kahl read is also worded in a way that he can easily flip it from a town read to something else.  States demotivation but still like for real?  You shouldn't be town reading literally the entire game. Now that hilda, sally and Dr. Kahl have all flipped town this post looks 100% worse.  The only person left on his 'scum list' is me.

On 2/11/2018 at 7:31 PM, Grim Matchstick said:

I just woke up like 30 minutes ago, go me

wrt my Rumor read I'll admit I was feeling they were town because their play felt too... obvious/brazen? I did try to get more details out of them D2 because I was uncertain though

Werner makes a good point about Kahl that I hadn't considered before. Briney's right they didn't push it but Kahl mentioned Day 2 they fell asleep before deadline so I'm inclined to give them a pass

Post talking about his past rumor town read.  Also just kind of saying "Yeah you guys are right doing that stuff." While doing nothing else in this post.

On 2/12/2018 at 6:26 AM, Grim Matchstick said:

Game talk: If Baroness thinks trying to solve the game by finding townreads and then lynching the least townie people is bad and/or scummy, why were they townreading Rumor of all people?

Baroness's posts feel like someone who is frustrated they/their team is being lynched for what they perceive to be bad reasons. I feel like they are pointing to things and saying "this could be scum, why are you townreading this??"

Real talk: Like, yes, lots of things can be construed as scummy if look at them that way, that's why you have to just make your best guess. You don't need to be a professional psychologist to determine if someone is lying, people do that all the time. Being scum in mafia is hard, because you have to not just lie, but you have to convince a bunch of other people that a good number of them are also liars, all while everyone is constantly scrutinizing each other's words trying to find out who the deceitful ones are. 

Game talk: Apparently just having a lot of town reads has made Grim's accuracy awful as all of his scum/null reads have flipped town.  I still don't understand the second part of this post.  Only one scum member has been lynched so I have no clue what this means.  I'm also pretty sure at this point in time I was the one with the most votes and on the chopping block so it even makes less sense.

This post is still just a post focused towards me.

On 2/12/2018 at 9:21 PM, Grim Matchstick said:

Because you're angry that people (like me) are posting townreads and lynching you because you're not in them, and are scumreading me for it as far as I can tell. But you were townreading Rumor whose entire playstyle was to townread people. Am I misinterpreting this?

also @Cagney Carnation if Baroness is who I think it is, as town they're more argumentative but it feels different, they are usually arguing about reads and that sort of thing, in this case it feels like they're just arguing to argue and hoping that looks townie? They'll frequently argue with their scumreads as town but Bonbon's responses to me generally feel really flippant like they don't want to get pulled into that.

Still solely talking about me, where did that Sally scum read go I wonder?

On 2/12/2018 at 9:31 PM, Grim Matchstick said:

no

I think their late day 1 and actions around the Djimmi lynch were very scummy (not scumreading him but saying in the same post they would consolidate on him and preferred him over other potential lynches they were actually scumreading), their big D2 post was bad because I feel their reads/cases are weak in a way that feels like scum struggling to come up with cases, and they're continuing on that today. The meta thing was in response to you saying you feel they're playing to their town meta

Only me.

On 2/12/2018 at 10:02 PM, Grim Matchstick said:

I backed off because in my experience, 95% of the time someone makes some comment like Beppi did implying they're a townie PR, they actually are a town PR and not scum trying to BS.

Defending his Beppi push that he backed off of.  Which is also bad in hindsight.

On 2/12/2018 at 10:09 PM, Grim Matchstick said:

I don't really have anything to say to the rest of it. I did townread people more than scumread them, but I don't think that's scummy so all I can say is... alright?

Literally only had 2 scum reads as of the beginning of day 3.   ?!?!?!?!?!?  So far all the scum reads/null reads had have also flipped town.

On 2/12/2018 at 10:33 PM, Grim Matchstick said:

I explained pretty clearly that I backed off Werner because of a meta read.

The Baroness point is like... every time they do something, I still think it's scummy? How is it scummy that I didn't back off all 3 of my scumreads from d1/early day 2? I guess I don't understand what you mean by reevaluate. They've done things I think are very scummy and nothing they've said or done is really swaying my opinion, especially since I think most other slots are townier.

I think backing off of someone based on a meta read can be bad, especially since the entire time he's only really posted mainly meta reads.  They have been plenty of other reasons as to why Werner is town than just a meta read and this is a weak reasoning for posting someone as a town read.

On 2/12/2018 at 11:06 PM, Grim Matchstick said:

I've been posting about it and responding to people about it, but it'd probably be fair to say that I've been pretty passive this game. That's probably a result of outside factors affecting my mood, a lot of the time I will check on the thread after sleeping in way past noon, see a bunch of posts, and just kind of... meh. I should probably be pressing people more on what I'm scumreading Baroness for since I don't really feel like anyone has responded to the stuff I'm casing them on but eh

Also Baroness's top 2 scumreads are me and someone who I think is pretty clearly town on associations/play (Cala) and tbh I can't think of anyone else who feels scummier at this point. Like, I was entertaining the thought of you being scum but I just don't feel it. It's possible it's Hilda/Sally but we have enough mislynches to cover that so I don't feel particularly assed to determine which of them is town. This is pretty careless but this game also isn't top priority for me rn (in fact I considered subbing out at a couple points but yeah)

Bolded line is EXTREMELY important.  Outside of that line this entire post is just focusing on me or commenting on how he doesn't want to play mafia.  The line about having enough mislynches that he doesn't care to look at who could be scum/town in his scum reads is TERRIBLE and SCUMMY.

The italicized part of this post is WRT the though of entertaining the thought of Briney being scum.  But he doesn't feel it.

On 2/12/2018 at 11:14 PM, Grim Matchstick said:

I'm not going to at this point, it was mostly during D1 when my personal life decided to shit on me

This was WRT being told to not sub out.  He was simply stating that he wasn't gonna sub out.

On 2/15/2018 at 1:33 PM, Grim Matchstick said:

whatever, we can lynch sally first if the alternative is me

##Vote: Sally Stageplay

THE ONLY POST HE HAD DAY 4.  PEOPLE WERE TALKING ABOUT EARLY HAMMERING HIM BEFORE THIS EVEN HAPPENED.  AND AFTER IT HAPPENED.  WHY DIDNT THIS GET LYNCHED?  LIKE.  This post is obviously going "I don't wanna post much cause it seems like I'm dead, but on the off chance lets go and vote the other leading candidate."

It also stands out to me because it seems to imply that he wasn't sure about the sally read in this post.  He last stated he was scum reading sally the previous day but now it seems up in the air?  Also this is the first actual post not focused on me since day 3 started.

On 2/19/2018 at 8:02 AM, Grim Matchstick said:

I'm vanilla

I'm thinking it has to be Baroness+Briney

Briney/Baroness/Rumor scumteam makes sense since Briney was actively defending both of them and he probably thought he could get away with it because he was widely townread

Still nothing.  Dunno where that Briney read came from.  Felt like he literally just had to ass it out of nowhere.  No thoughts on Cala or why Briney is scum.  I've literally quoted all of his posts since DAy 3 start and the only mention he had of Briney was in the post I quoted earlier and it was completely half-assed.  Why is Briney more likely scum than Cala? What about Werner? He's stated that he is town reading them because of Meta, is that really strong enough at this point in time in the game.

He also has yet to return after making this post or, like I said, comment on anything else.

So literally from day 3 START on to now he has not made a single post towards anyone else except me unless it was in response to very small questions. He hasn't even answered some of the bigger questions or thoughts that have been posted WRT him.

I want people to explain to me why Grim is town while acknowledging these posts as well as the one I already quoted and posted about.

[Cú Chulainn]

On 2/8/2018 at 7:39 PM, Grim Matchstick said:

Do you have any actual problems with my play other than me making meta reads? Or... half your reads, really. Your Sally read for example seems to be "I disagree with how they're playing so I'm okay with lynching them" vs. "I think what they're doing is scummy" and I feel like your Wally read is much the same.  You did a lot of this D1 too iirc

Also you claim I brought up the Cala read change after other people pointed it out and gutread this as scum but... I don't think anyone talked about it this phase until I brought it up as a towntell? This feels like something you just made up which is ???

man fuck it 

##Vote: bvbb

People really shouldn't be giving this slot a free pass for something easy to fake as scum (their argument with Briney D1) and I don't feel good about voting Sally without doing a proper analysis (which I haven't had the motivation for lul)

Him voting me cause I came back and posted.

On 2/9/2018 at 1:06 AM, Grim Matchstick said:

how can mafia be real if our eyes aren't real

someone kill me so I can have the sweet release of death, and other such laments

it's time for the GRIM MATCHSTICK'S SALLY STAGEPLAY ANALYSIS which the thread slowed to a screeching halt in anticipation of this is a joke

I think what bothers me as I read Sally isn't that they feel indecisive or waffle-y, but that I don't feel like they're making a real effort to resolve their indecisiveness. They'll state stuff like "Werner's vote was fine but them emphasizing it as townie wasn't" and then just... leave it. It's difficult for me to put into words why this bugs me, but it makes me feel like they're not really trying to solve the game and are instead just making posts to blend in. However, they DO definitely change their mind on Werner when Werner is still the leading wagon. I'm a bit conflicted here, since on one hand if they tunneled and Werner flips town (which even ignoring my read on Werner would be the likely result if Sally's scum) I think it reflects kinda badly on them? On the other, they then proceed to kickstart the Djimmi wagon which was... also a mislynch? However, this one had some building consensus of "Djimmi might be lurkscum" in offhand remarks from a lot of players whereas the Werner wagon had pretty much died. It also bugs me that Sally doesn't really change their read on Werner for anything Werner actually did within the time frame of Sally's posts and they just thought about it a lot and came to a conclusion.

Sally's towniest post is probably the response to Briney's attempt to turbo her.

But the Briney townread is also really ??? Sally seems to be basing this off role/actionspec which is super weird. I'm... not sure what to make of this honestly. I don't get what benefit town has for making this sort of post, I feel like maybe she's trying to appease/buddy with Briney?

The way Sally approaches the Cala/Rumor wagons is really bad, and it's kind of weird because I feel like her approach is suddenly a lot different from D1 (I don't think this is really alignment indicative it's just weird). Sally has gone from half-defending Rumor D1 to finding Rumor scummy D2 when very little for Rumor has changed, and has really nothing positive to say about Cala but ends up voting Rumor in what basically amounts to a pressure vote, as they don't want to put Cala at L-1.

I also dislike how Sally approaches the Cala wagon. People are on her for not factoring it into her reads or trying to improve her reads on the people on the wagon (which I agree with), but I don't really have any idea who she finds scummiest of them or anything. She lists 3 names (Rumor, Cagney, and Kahl) and I'm not sure which she finds scummy of them? I have to assume Rumor is scummiest because Rumor is the only one Sally is actually pressuring, and then I guess Cagney because Kahl only got a parentheses remark? 

Overall, reading through Sally's posts and Briney's analysis I have to say I agree with the case

Of the 3 wagons today (Rumor, Cala, Sally) I'm definitely not lynching Cala. I still think BvBB is the scummiest player in the thread and people are sleeping on this. I'm bothered that Rumor just disappeared but shit happens so it's pretty NAI. Because of this I'll probably vote Sally

I should be around to consolidate tomorrow, I legit forgot we need hammer today because it wasn't needed D1 >_>

 

His Sally case.

On 2/6/2018 at 7:49 PM, Grim Matchstick said:

Baroness Von Bon Bon

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/80638-cuphead-in-dont-deal-with-the-mafia-night-1/&do=findComment&comment=5127480
Their Beppi vote here looks to basically be a pressure vote. I think this is okay considering it’s relatively early in the game and she apparently miscounted the number of votes on Werner. I don’t see the scum intent in it.

I’m currently inclined to think this slot is town because they are the only person agreeing with me about Beppi as of page 3, which is kind of dumb but w/e. Other people let that slot slide way too easily.

This slot disappears for a long time, and their reentry to the thread is BAD.

"I actually kind of agree that the Djimmi lynch is bad to an extent, but that's solely because they haven't been around.  Realistically that's null.  Also from my current position I feel that I'll end up being swayed to vote Djimmi."

"So before I do my reread I would be at Djimmi > Cala > Rumor.  I currently have more town reads than scum reads and that's frustrating for me, mainly because the people I was previously scum reading became town reads(Insert Beppi, Hilda, Werner.)"

These are from the same post. This doesn’t make any sense. BvBB calls their Djimmi a consolidation but the wording here implies they also think Djimmi is scummiest. I also really dislike how they forewent rereading to cheerlead the Djimmi turbo by picking a fight with Brineybeard. This is really scummy because talking about game theory/mechanics instead of analyzing is a pretty classic scumtell, and while people misuse those all the time I feel confident in this, and it adds to the feeling that despite claiming the Djimmi lynch was bad, everything said and done after that was encouraging it.

Lynch priority: Beppi > BvBB > Cala?

Would not lynch today: Myself > Cagney > Werner > Briney > Kahl

Everyone else: Hilda, Sally, Rumor, Wally

##Vote: Beppi

eury out bitches this isn't an identity claim don't modkill me

His me case.  Looking at both of them his case on Sally is by far stronger but he doesn't even pay attention to it from day 3 onwards until literally a "Well if it's that guy and not me."  Which is extremely suspect.

[Estelle]

4 minutes ago, Baroness Von Bon Bon said:

His me case.  Looking at both of them his case on Sally is by far stronger but he doesn't even pay attention to it from day 3 onwards until literally a "Well if it's that guy and not me."  Which is extremely suspect.

That was from D2, when the only flip was Djimmi.  Sally's case is from D3, where we have two additional flips.  It's not surprising that his Sally case would be stronger.

Your last post was better, albeit a bit hindsight-y.  Am I scum for sitting on Sally for so long?  Is Maria scum for having a reads list on D1 with one flipped scumread?

[Cú Chulainn]

The sally case is D2

[Cú Chulainn]

The case on me is start of D2. The sally case is D2 before cop claim.

[C. C.]

2 hours ago, Wally Warbles said:

I reread D2 and I'm liking Grim more and more, his posts seem very genuine there and his cases are good. I kind of disagree now about Grim I don't think he waffled anymore than you did Cap, he says that they are scummy but their play doesn't make sense coming from scum, which was basically the argument you used against me all phase? What makes his reaction to the Rumor wagon significantly different to yours @Captain Brineybeard? I'm also going to 180 on my demotivated read because I now feel like scum in *ylo would have one last push to get the win. I think it just bothers me more from a play perspective than it does a logical one. The kills do make sense coming from him but I think they make sense coming from anyone, Kahl was a strong player willing to re-evaluate reads.

Yes but the difference is that I said I was leaning town on Rumor and my townread became stronger as D2 progressed. Grim started the day with Rumor as null. I feel like it's more waffly to just end up at null rather than still take a stance on someone, and me defending a townread is more consistent with my stated reads than Grim defending a nullread. I think Grim's activity is null frankly. The demotivation started partway through D3, right after a scum lynch. You say later (too lazy to quote it) that the demotivation started D2 but I don't think this is true. Sure, scum in *ylo would want to try hard to get that last lynch, but town in *ylo would want to try hard because they lose if they don't? Also, town at the end of Antihero didn't become drastically less motivated despite continued mislynches (and if Grim is who I think he is, he was one of the players alive at endgame there). I think it's just related to him losing interest in the game and is separate from his alignment. 

2 hours ago, Wally Warbles said:

What happened to this?

nothing. it still holds and I admitted as such in analyzing the Cala-Rumor interactions. i guess for me it's a question of who I think makes less sense as buddies- Grim/Baroness or Rumor/Cala. I feel like Grim/Baroness make less sense than Rumor/Cala, which is why I think Grim/Cala is a more likely scumteam than Grim/Baroness. If you're looking for a different argument from me for why Baroness is town, I don't have one. that being said I don't really get the meta case. in p5 he was reactionary against basically everyone and then it died down once they stopped pushing him. Here it's more selective and not quite as tied to people pushing him? like his arguments about you not doing much on D2 are bad but he started criticizing you before your invigorated push against him today. 

2 hours ago, Wally Warbles said:

##Vote: Baroness von Bon Bon putting my money where my mouth is.

I said Baroness/Captain scumteam if Hilda flipped town, I said it again if Sally flips town. I'm sick of second guessing myself due to lack of motivation, frustration at certain players in the game and lack of self-confidence. I should've done this 2 phases ago but we lynched an inactive noobtown and Sally who I nullread for eternity and had no resistance to their lynch.

this is frustrating for me because I still don't really know why since D2, you've identified me as Rumor's buddy defending her over the other people defending her. even if you think Grim defending her is the same as me defending her, why me over Grim then? iirc on d2 you were saying stuff about me inventing answers on her behalf but I don't understand where I did that, or at least, where I did that to a greater extent than others.

[Cú Chulainn]

1 minute ago, Werner Werman said:

Your last post was better, albeit a bit hindsight-y.  Am I scum for sitting on Sally for so long?  Is Maria scum for having a reads list on D1 with one flipped scumread?

No I don't think your scum for that but I've also already stated that.  However if Cala or Grim flipped town I'd probably say the last remaining scum would be captain, but I'm confident enough in my reads on Cala/Grim that I don't think that's the case.

[C. C.]

it's frustrating to realize how much I depend on meta to inform lategame reads. Baroness's identity is obvious and I'm 50% sure I know who Grim is but I have no idea who Cala is so my read of her is not confident at all. But I kind of feel like Grim has to be scum bc I think Cala/Baroness is even less likely than Grim/Baroness. so I feel a lot more confident in lynching Grim than anybody else.

the scummiest thing for me that Grim has done in the past few days which is non-interactions related is his post today saying it has to be me/Baroness because it goes against several days of him not thinking I was scum. I've done the same with Cala but at least I tried to see how that fit more than Grim giving the exact opposite interpretation for one of my actions. Like Baroness points out he said earlier that he didn't think I would make the cocky scum play of hard-defending my buddy and today he's like "yeah makes sense that Captain thought he could get away with hard defending his buddies". there's no attempt to try to reconcile the two viewpoints at all.

i don't really have anything else to say. seems like Grim and Cala are going towards a Baroness vote and me and Werner are going towards a Grim vote (not sure if Werner's opinions changed over the last page). that leaves us tied at 3-3 so it's a question of who's going to budge from their reads first?

[Ochako Uraraka]

Late but at Captain: I think you're most likely to be Baroness' scumbuddy if she's scum but I'm not sure about 2nd scummiest because Grim just going AFK from this game and not really pushing Baroness doesn't match with what I'd expect town to do and that has really thrown me off, like I didn't expect it at all after his D2 and ED3.

You're right that my play makes sense coming from scum keeping their options open but it similarly does as town wanting to lynch correctly and not shut down other explanations. Like FMPOV if people are pushing a Grim/Cala scumteam and I perceive Grim to be doing something scummy it does mean that something is wrong and someone is lying or did something that scum doesn't usually do, so its very reasonably for me to go back and check if I was wrong on something? What's making me feel bad about you is that you kind of didn't really think of other explanations for scumteams until I posted ideas and it feels like you're trying to shut them down which is more likely to come from scum.

 

Also stuff like scumreading Baroness only to pass her up because0 'no one makes sense as her scumbuddy' while townreading me only to put me up for a lynch because I make sense as someone else's buddy really feels like scum!logic IMO. I'm still doubting my read on you though because I haven't really seen anything from Grim.

[Ochako Uraraka]

But yeah I'm also trying to see if a Captain/Grim team would hold here because the way you argued Sally over Grim last phase only to now devolve to a Grim/Cala guess while shutting down arguments looks suspicious.

[Ochako Uraraka]

4 hours ago, Wally Warbles said:

She never talked about scum!Grim and in fact was townreading him?

The entire reason people were suspecting Rumor D1, the few that were, was because she gave arguments for scum!Grim but never laid a vote on him, instead sticking to her RVS vote on the Captain.

[Ochako Uraraka]

Any questions I can probably answer now I'm not going to be on for like 10+ hours and it sucks that discussion is only starting now.

[Ochako Uraraka]

@Wally  do you think a Captain/Grim team taking advantage of Baroness' play is likelier than Baroness being scum with either of them? 

[Cú Chulainn]

Maybe I'm paranoid or it's the fact that I'm confident in my reads but Cala's posting style in these last few posts really make it seem like she's almost fine on lynching any of me/Grim/Captain and I heavily dislike that.

[Cú Chulainn]

Who do you vote if you had to vote right now Cala?

[C. C.]

i'm not trying to shut down arguments for other scumteams. i'm just trying to argue for my opinion. I don't think the chance of a Grim/Baroness scumteam is 0%. I'd probably say it's like 10%, and Baroness/Cala is like 5%. But what's the point of me saying "yeah these are possibilities" when in the end I'm still just going to argue for the one I think is most likely? that's basically what you're doing isn't it? you're like "yeah Grim/Baroness is possible and here's why but I still think Captain is more likely". so what's the point of that other than to hedge risks?

shutting down arguments for other scumteams doesn't really make sense for me to do as scum either because I'm tying myself to Baroness and going for broke today.

[C. C.]

i'm being a bit unfair I guess. giving details on your entire thought process is more transparent and allows people to better understand the reason you came to the conclusion you did. But it doesn't actually help much with convincing someone that your belief is correct.

[Ochako Uraraka]

10 hours ago, Captain Brineybeard said:

i'm not trying to shut down arguments for other scumteams. i'm just trying to argue for my opinion. I don't think the chance of a Grim/Baroness scumteam is 0%. I'd probably say it's like 10%, and Baroness/Cala is like 5%. But what's the point of me saying "yeah these are possibilities" when in the end I'm still just going to argue for the one I think is most likely? that's basically what you're doing isn't it? you're like "yeah Grim/Baroness is possible and here's why but I still think Captain is more likely". so what's the point of that other than to hedge risks?

shutting down arguments for other scumteams doesn't really make sense for me to do as scum either because I'm tying myself to Baroness and going for broke today.

Or other players pick up on things that I did not and point them out, giving me a better chance to lynch accurately? Not like that happened today but still. I mean in a Grim/Cala team the only thing I need to do is ensure that Baroness gets lynched over Grim, I don't have any reason to think about other teams and push them other than WIFOM, and if I'm part of any other scumteam, I'm basically doing this for my own amusement.

 

But yeah I haven't been as confident with a Briney/Baroness team mostly because Grim vanished and I find it hard to believe that Town thinks Baroness is scum but votes Sally in a not-me-over-me situation when only one guy has voted =Grim, and it looks weird because he hasn't even pushed Baroness as hard as anyone else who was voting her D3 did. So even if it makes less sense for scum to do that D3 after their buddy got lynched its hard to sign this off as a town/scum interaction because scum could just be trying to distance using WIFOM.  We know for a fact that Refa and Junko pulled a similar thing in Heroes mafia after their buddy Michelaar got lynched, albeit with their role. But the point is if the argument against this team is based off of one action I think its shaky, especially when their individual actions aren't panning out as town.

 

Not really, it totally makes sense for you to do as scum if you have faith in arguing against your lynch the next phase on a Baroness lynch. I mean we could talk similarly about the Sally/Grim team being your guess last phase and you're pretty confident today about a Grim/Cala team so its so in you to do that.

 

[Ochako Uraraka]

But yeah I think if Grim was just scum who struggled to fake a case it'd make sense to go on to his buddy for towncred. The one thing I'm struggling to rationalize is voting Baroness D2 as a counterwagon when he strongly opposed both Rumor's and my lynches, like he could've easily jumped on Rumor to get more towncred on a Rumor flip, unless he thought that it would be worse since majority were townreading her?

 

I guess I'd still vote Baroness mostly because there doesn't exist an argument for Town!Baroness other than "No one makes sense as her buddy" which is very faulty.

[Ochako Uraraka]

Yeah I won't be around for deadline so ##Vote:Baroness Von Bon Bon

[All Might]

Votals 5.2
Baroness Von Bon Bon (2): Wally Warbles, Cala Maria (L-2)
Grim Matchstick (1): Baroness Von Bon Bon
Not Voting (3): Captain Brineybeard, Grim Matchstick, Werner Werman

You have ~10.5 hours left in the day. With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

It is possible for town to lose following a mislynch today!

[C. C.]

it's not like I'm just saying "i think the scumteam is cala/grim" i'm giving reasons for that and why I don't want to lynch baroness and why I think baroness/grim is unlikely. there are lots of opportunities for people to critique my reasoning. I'm just not saying "this is a 10% chance and Grim/Cala is an 85% chance" or whatever, I'm just saying "I think Grim/Cala is most likely".

i feel like you're accusing me of shutting down your arguments for scumteam possibilities with Baroness in them but are not engaging my reasons for thinking that they're unlikely. like you haven't answered why grim/baroness decide to bus each other on D3 after a buddy dies on D2, or my reasons for why I don't make sense as a buddy with Baroness.

i mean sure I could still win as scum after a scum baroness lynch but it would be harder after encouraging lines drawn in the sand between me/Baroness and you/Grim. it's different from switching from Sally/Grim to Grim/Cala today cuz there are fewer people so I wasn't tying myself as directly to Baroness yesterday. but this is all wifom anyways so whatever.

i forgot that the phase end time got pushed later because phase started late. I won't be here for deadline but I'll be here up to about an hour and a half before.