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Broken hit rates


mangasdeouf
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Hello,

Today I'm posting this to have answers:

Does anyone else find the hit rates completely false? In my Birthright playthrough, my Hinoka is regularly (as in 2x in a row against specific ennemies I need to reset several times to make her hit...) missing ennemies with 80+% hit rate. It happened in Moshuku  against a ninja at the beginning of the levels and now in the opera against the archer on the boat west from the starting point (she was riding with Jakob paladin as her backpack in the opera). This is always resulting in forced resets since she can't take an arrow without ending at 1 HP or so and getting killed by whatever sh*t hits her afterhand. I'm playing on hard casual. If it was one miss once in a hile...but when none of the hits land with 80+% hit rate and double attack, it feels like RNG is broken.

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LOL yes I see, same thing for FE6 the hit rates and the weapons' base hit rates were like they came from a FE randomizer.

Edit: it's not the main topic of my topic but since we're here: I also find the avoid being trash tier in Fates. They cut the max stats by 15 but they kept the shitty skill, luck and speed bonuses while also cutting backpack support bonuses (+2 str, def and res with Jakob paladin, whatever his stats are, so even if I went on the hard path to level him up to 35 he would give the same bonuses, am I wrong?)...seeing dodgetank classes (samurai, sky knight) getting hit 90% of the time makes me puke. You capped speed and luck? Good luck with your 60 avoid against 130 hit rate ennemies *trollface*

Edit of edit: also some classes really seem like fillers: Master of Arms LOL the skills are purely suicidal, take more damage to inflict more, yes good on ally phase but it eans if you use the skill you're not going to doany ennemy phase, which means your unit will attack around 10-20x instead of 40-ish if you were allowed to ennemy phase (especially with samurai's avoid skill being only on PP it's so stupid, it was meant to make the glass cannons ables to avoid dangerous hits but no it won't let you tank hits on EP so now dodgetanks are useless classes while tanks who don't double but don't get doubled are the kings of the game...no more strat, put a tank in and heal pot until you win the chapter)

Edited by mangasdeouf
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4 hours ago, mangasdeouf said:

Hello,

Today I'm posting this to have answers:

Does anyone else find the hit rates completely false? In my Birthright playthrough, my Hinoka is regularly (as in 2x in a row against specific ennemies I need to reset several times to make her hit...) missing ennemies with 80+% hit rate. It happened in Moshuku  against a ninja at the beginning of the levels and now in the opera against the archer on the boat west from the starting point (she was riding with Jakob paladin as her backpack in the opera). This is always resulting in forced resets since she can't take an arrow without ending at 1 HP or so and getting killed by whatever sh*t hits her afterhand. I'm playing on hard casual. If it was one miss once in a hile...but when none of the hits land with 80+% hit rate and double attack, it feels like RNG is broken.

RNG is RNG.

That said the player gets a lot of tools to boost hitrate (AStance, Wta, skills, stats, freeze) so this should never be relevant.

Edited by joshcja
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Hinoka is C or B support with Jakob. Anyway I overused Takumi's cannon to ware downennemies and killed Xander and Garon with the bow after putting them at 1 HP. Tankumi could solo this map if I had a tank with enough def and HP (the highest I have for now would be Jakob with Naginata guard and a def sup, with 11 base def, +1 with the paladin skill and aegis, still i's only 17 def with an OP defensive weapon...and 34 HP which is correct.

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I don't know if you had experience with Awakening, or any other FE games from Binding Blade onwards. If you did, then the change in RNG mechanics is the reason why. FE6 (Binding Blade) until Awakening used an different mechanic that skewed the actual percentages towards the polar ends, which means 51%+ attacks hit more often than displayed, while 49%- attacks hits less often. This "polar skew" seemed to be made weaker in Fates, which results in more noticeable cases of higher percentage not connecting. If it was the older games, then an 80%+ was a near-guaranteed hit. For Fates, I actually aimed for 90+% hit rate if there was no room for error.

Edited by henrymidfields
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1 hour ago, henrymidfields said:

I don't know if you had experience with Awakening, or any other FE games from Binding Blade onwards. If you did, then the change in RNG mechanics is the reason why. FE6 (Binding Blade) until Awakening used an different mechanic that skewed the actual percentages towards the polar ends, which means 51%+ attacks hit more often than displayed, while 49%- attacks hits less often. This "polar skew" seemed to be made weaker in Fates, which results in more noticeable cases of higher percentage not connecting. If it was the older games, then an 80%+ was a near-guaranteed hit. For Fates, I actually aimed for 90+% hit rate if there was no room for error.

Thanks. I read something like that on GameFAQs it seems it uses the same RNG system as FE6 and older games instead of FE7-13 (except maybe FE Shadow Dragon).It sucks but we can't can't fix that. I would just like to see actual avoid in my units' stats instead of only in skills that activate mainly on PP. I miss my 90 avoid from TSS or 110+ from RD...

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The hit rates in Fates often times seem to function closer to single RNG which as an example say a fighter with 35% chance to hit attacks a mercenary with 85% chance to counter. Most people would say that the fighter is not going to hit, but when you are working with single RNG it is possible for a really low hit chance to hit. At the same time you can have a 90% hit chance completely miss. Whereas this would not happen in Awakening and is very unlikely even in FE7 and FE8. 

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Well, I've already missed 98+% hit in FE 8 and died because of this (arena sucks) and 12% hit rate tend to hit more than 60% for ennemies. A bit exaggerating but it feels like this when you get hit by such a low hit attack and take 10-15 damage with your pegasus.

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On 2/21/2018 at 11:40 PM, mangasdeouf said:

Hello,

Today I'm posting this to have answers:

Does anyone else find the hit rates completely false? In my Birthright playthrough, my Hinoka is regularly (as in 2x in a row against specific ennemies I need to reset several times to make her hit...) missing ennemies with 80+% hit rate. It happened in Moshuku  against a ninja at the beginning of the levels and now in the opera against the archer on the boat west from the starting point (she was riding with Jakob paladin as her backpack in the opera). This is always resulting in forced resets since she can't take an arrow without ending at 1 HP or so and getting killed by whatever sh*t hits her afterhand. I'm playing on hard casual. If it was one miss once in a hile...but when none of the hits land with 80+% hit rate and double attack, it feels like RNG is broken.

Are you using battle saves? If you miss with a given weapon, then reload a battle save, you'll miss again if you use the same weapon. Other than that, as others have mentioned, it's just what an RNG sometimes does. Sometimes you get good luck (like critting with 24 listed hit/18 listed crit to save your skin against a guy who ORKOes you at 82 listed hit); sometimes you get bad luck.

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32 minutes ago, Seafarer said:

Are you using battle saves? If you miss with a given weapon, then reload a battle save, you'll miss again if you use the same weapon. Other than that, as others have mentioned, it's just what an RNG sometimes does. Sometimes you get good luck (like critting with 24 listed hit/18 listed crit to save your skin against a guy who ORKOes you at 82 listed hit); sometimes you get bad luck.

I was reloading the chapter (restarting) then I used my god Tankumi to put them at 1 HP and kill them with Hinoka. The iron bow's base damage is scary.

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On 2018-02-21 at 5:40 AM, mangasdeouf said:

Hello,

Today I'm posting this to have answers:

Does anyone else find the hit rates completely false? In my Birthright playthrough, my Hinoka is regularly (as in 2x in a row against specific ennemies I need to reset several times to make her hit...) missing ennemies with 80+% hit rate. It happened in Moshuku  against a ninja at the beginning of the levels and now in the opera against the archer on the boat west from the starting point (she was riding with Jakob paladin as her backpack in the opera). This is always resulting in forced resets since she can't take an arrow without ending at 1 HP or so and getting killed by whatever sh*t hits her afterhand. I'm playing on hard casual. If it was one miss once in a hile...but when none of the hits land with 80+% hit rate and double attack, it feels like RNG is broken.

Well as much as it may seem stupid, really it’s just if it dosen’t say 100% that means it has a chance, even if it’s a really small one, to miss but I can see where you’re coming from.

Edited by HeyThatsMyCookie
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On 2/21/2018 at 2:53 AM, Purple Mage said:

It's kinda complicated, but Fates RNG is basically stupid, rigged, and broken. It can be summed up by this Awkward Zombie comic made for Shadow Dragon: http://www.awkwardzombie.com/index.php?page=0&comic=072312

Although Fates RNG is more ridiculous than Shadow Dragon's, to be honest.

I feel like the point of that comic flew over your head... (That or I'm misreading your post.)

Anyway Fates, like all FEs, has an RNG which, insofar as it is rigged at all, is rigged in your favour (that is, it raises hit rights in the 51-99 range to be higher than displayed, which generally helps the player more since their hit rates are higher than the enemies'). Worth noting though is that it does less of this rigging than most FEs, so if you're used to FE6-13 you'll see more "surprise" misses than you might expect, but still less than the numbers actually predict, and thus less than games whose projections actually the real hit %.

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12 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

I feel like the point of that comic flew over your head... (That or I'm misreading your post.)

Anyway Fates, like all FEs, has an RNG which, insofar as it is rigged at all, is rigged in your favour (that is, it raises hit rights in the 51-99 range to be higher than displayed, which generally helps the player more since their hit rates are higher than the enemies'). Worth noting though is that it does less of this rigging than most FEs, so if you're used to FE6-13 you'll see more "surprise" misses than you might expect, but still less than the numbers actually predict, and thus less than games whose projections actually the real hit %.

If this is true, then I really do have to wonder if I am cursed or something, since I always tend to miss anything below 85% while the enemy always hits everything above 10% when I play. Especially on the harder difficulties and especially especially on Conquest. And since Conquest has a lot of dodge tanks as enemies and you get a lot of blind fools who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, well...  let's just say that Skill buying and Certain Blow are godsends.
The rigged RNG is especially noticeable when you are in a tough spot, like say, you absolutely NEED to kill that one Archer else he kills your flier because you made a small mistake in positioning your units. Every attack against the Archer will miss and then the Archer will move in to kill your flier.  Or you have a chance to kill one enemy, but you miss and he suddenly crits you with a 1% and a low hit chance.
I have seen this and similar things happen way too many times to still be naive enough to believe it's a mere coincidence or the RNG just happens to roll that way at that point. Fates just loves to invoke Murphy's Law on you.
 

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On 05/03/2018 at 2:29 PM, DragonFlames said:

Fates just loves to invoke Murphy's Law on you.

Same feeling dude, same feeling. The one you have to kill with 88% hit rate often survives and slaughter one of your units right after that.

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General rule of thumb: you don't remember the dozens of times that the RNG broadly went your way (the enemy NOT getting a crit, or you landing ten ~80% hits in a row), while you do remember the bad experiences that screwed you over. That doesn't mean the RNG is rigged against you, it's just the way human memory works. Don't trust your memories of probabilistic events.

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I wonder if it could also be partly perception from context. I found that the other games that I played were generally more forgiving than Fates Conquest, which means that a miss in those games didn't matter as much, while an unlucky miss in, say, Conquest Chapter 10 is more likely to cost you the game, and "stands out" more to you.

Edited by henrymidfields
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