Etrian Odyssey 3 Mafia - Game Over

[Eurykins]

My point is, there are so many variables that I do not think there is really ANY means of FOR SURE clearing ANYONE in this game thus far. At least in my head.

Rolecop is questionable in any game state.

Neighbors- one of us- is likely not town. I know from my PoV that I'm town, but Snike/Boron would likewise claim the exact same thing. Not really a means to tell who is telling the truth until one of us flips.

Ascetic and Commuter are in the same boat as Rolecop. Liable of being either side, and hard to prove either at this point. (And even then, proving those aspects of the roles don't do much as a whole.)

Doc/Omniguard, RB/Role delayer, RB shot (item?), Bodyguard/Redirection/bussing?, and can even include Commuter again as a means of anti-killing. The fuck are the amounts of protection floating around? Not all of these can reliably be stated as being town-sided. Unless scum has means of breaking through them to ensure that there is some means of guaranteeing or highly increasing the chance of succeeding on a NK.

[Shinori]

More like scum probably controls some of those abilities.

Or scum has the ability to ignore them.

Such as Ascetic.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

I just want this game to end

[Eurykins]

Ascetic gets around RB/redirection/copping. Doesn't get around Doc. 

Having only one role/slot that can cope with those amounts of means to affect action-disabling roles though, seems unlikely to me. Because literally claiming ascetic, if they ended up being scum ascetic, means that tenfold everyone else on your scum team is going to harbor the risk of being blocked or redirected in some fashion.

It's odd though, because unless Ascetic got shot or something by our claimed vig, had that slot survived to be the last one standing, there would be no real way to defend against them? Outside of commuting to safety or doc shots (and assuming these two roles get nullified via TP loss or get killed at some point), the rest of our utility as townside would be null and void. No way to track/see them, or otherwise verify one way or another if/when they kill someone. That's actually pretty nasty, when I think about it. Moreso than a ninja role. 

PEDIT: This is also probably why we need to not NL this day phase. We just fucking massclaimed, and we're gonna lose a strong power role within this next night phase almost guaranteed. 

[Eurykins]

*Actually, can a watcher see an ascetic kill someone? As they'd be watching over someone being visited by said person? I didn't quite consider that, but that would also rely on us having a watcher, which I don't think we had? Just a tracker? (Unless I'm dumb and missed a claim or whatnot.)

[Shinori]

Ascetic alone is enough to block most of the stuff that has been claimed.

Especially since the only hard things they have to play around really is a 1x roleblock and a limited doc.  Most of the other things means they still get to kill.  Delayer means they kill just a night later.  Redirect still means they get to kill, just hopefully not redirected to one of themselves.

[Percivalé]

sorry I haven't been in the prime mood for figuring out this role mess. I'm kinda set on lynching snike anyway, I was going to reconsider him but as per my remark from before he's just trying to convince us to lynch bart which is weird. so I'm not convinced

[Shinori]

When is phase end? @Grace

[Grace]

Midnight GMT 3/26; I think it’s 40 hours 35 minutes from now, math is hard when I don’t have a computer 

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

TBH, I’m okay with voting Snike even though I don’t think they’re scum; this game has entered not worth it territory.

[Snike]

I lost a post and I don't want to retype it.

I reread and Bart's right that he wasn't under any pressure. I still don't feel good about the slot, but I noticed a few things:

1) Weapons was talking about testing the ascetic claim d2. Why didn't he do that instead of attempt to drive omega?"

2) If Prims is scum rolecop, why is shinori alive assuming he's town? Why NK lynchbait instead of the omniguard claim? And why would he not out tp assuming prims is scum rolecop and scanned it? I doubt tp would be omitted from a scan.

3)Why do omniguard and driver/action absorber (martyr/decoy/whatever you want to call it) exist in this setup? I don't know if they'd be aligned together and that's a lot of interference.

##Unvote

I don't think Bart's getting lynched today at this point, so no point keeping the vote up esp. since MYLO. I'd lynch Weapons or Shinori though based off of above.

In fact I'd support an NL since it wouldn't be a roll on me.

Desperate? Yeah, but that's because I don't want town to lose because of a modkill and rolespeccing a Negative Utility role as scum.

[Athena_57]

11 hours ago, Bartozio said:

How am I needed for Weapons to be scum? There's literally nothing tying our roles together.

I didn't say you were needed for that? My first PoE led to you two remaining, nothing more, nothing less. It didn't say anything about you two being tied together.
In case you're referring to my "Weapons is right...."-statement, I meant that if what weapons said was right, you had to be scum, not that weapons being scum implied you were scum.

Also, Shinori, I think you're being way to handwavey about Weapons and Eury, you're instantly dismissing the possibility Eury suggested about a redirect from Omega and ýou don't seem to really spend time on scumteams including the 2 of them or the possibility of Eury being scum but clearing town!weapons for towncred. Which by the way you ARE considering for Prims if I'm reading your stuff correctly.
And your reason for suspecting me is that I'm scumreading people you are townreading? I'm listing all scumteams possible, I have put basically everyone in one of the possible scumteams, so of course your townreads will be in there. Unless you're specifically referring to my Weapons/Bartozio stuff, in which case I find it very weird you're NOT considering them as scumcandidates.

On the flip side, I think I have personally not spent enough thought on the town!shinori + scum!Prims configuration. I first felt it was ridiculous scum!Prims would leave towndoc!Shinori alive and also clear him, but perhaps I should start looking at scumteams including him, considering my other scumteams aren't that much better.

Overall I'm thinking of something like this:

Eury/Weapons/Prims or Snike/Bartozio/???, where ??? can be anyone from Weapons, Prims and maaaybe Via (though I think that last one is VERY unlikely, as I'm still townreading Via and Shinori)

Imo these are the only teams that make sense and a flip from either Eury or Snike would for me lock down the rest of the scumteam. I'm not sure who I'd rather lynch atm though.

For the record, I still dislike the no lynch plan as it let's scum decide on a 4vs3 or 5vs3, why should we let them decide exactly?

[Bartozio]

Honestly, at this point Shinori can just have the game from me if he turns out to be scum. Him not being a doc would require a very spicific scum team, and a scum doc sounds very weird. Add to that that I'd townread him purely off of play as well, and I'm really not buying it.

Weapons being scum sounds like a really weird gambit to me. Not only would it require sacrificing a very likely misslynch target just to give Weapons some towncred (when he would have likely won out over Omega without all of this anyway), it also has the risk of either him being investigated by people targetting Omega (since you know, he was a big scumread) if he's not lying about his role, or people counterclaiming him if he's lying.
I also feel like Weapons' role is basicly confirmed in case of town Eury for what it's worth (chance of her role specificly being redirected from Omega to Weapons by rng is pretty small), but since I'm not sure Eury is town, that's not really relevant for my read on Weapons.

Honestly, if Via is scum with Prims and weapons he could be lying about his role, but considering Marth's role it sounds unlikely to me that there wouldn't be a townsided role that could pass out items. Based on that and his play, I'm pretty sure Via is town.

As a side note, I have no clue as to what Marth's own items were for. I'm guessing either SB could use them or they were just meant as a red haring to not immediatly tell Marth there were other items in the game? Not really important anymore I guess.

Since I know I'm not scum, that leaves Prims, Eury, Snike and Athena as candidates for the scumteam. That free Eury flip would have been really nice right about now

Athena is the most likely to be lying about his role, as there's literally nothing confirmed about it, nor are we likely to confirm anything about it. I could easily see him being a janitor and this just being SB's role tbh.

The thing about Prims' claim is that while it's indeed weird for scum to tell town they know who the doctor is instead of just killing him, it's also weird to let scum know Shinori is a towny role when Shinori is unlikely to get lynched anyway. @athena_57 Why do you think Prims gambiting here is less likely then the Weapons thing again?
I could even see this as a way for Prims to make a later rolecop claim less suspicious if they decide to kill Shinori N2.

Ascetic is looking like a really scummy role at the moment, and I think Snike's recent push on me was pretty scummy, both because the logic was so shaky and because I'm more inclined to role over dead when getting pushed then other people. Mostly the shaky logic though. Am I the only person who would be annoyed if Omega turns out to have been right about Marth vs Boron being TvS?

Eury's recent post feel more towny to me, but I'm not fully willing to townread her just yet.

Since I don't think Eury and Snike/Boron are scum buddies, I'd rather lynch between Prims and Athena right now, but I'm willing to consolidate on Snike.

[Shinori]

8 hours ago, athena_57 said:

Also, Shinori, I think you're being way to handwavey about Weapons and Eury, you're instantly dismissing the possibility Eury suggested about a redirect from Omega and ýou don't seem to really spend time on scumteams including the 2 of them or the possibility of Eury being scum but clearing town!weapons for towncred. Which by the way you ARE considering for Prims if I'm reading your stuff correctly.
And your reason for suspecting me is that I'm scumreading people you are townreading? I'm listing all scumteams possible, I have put basically everyone in one of the possible scumteams, so of course your townreads will be in there. Unless you're specifically referring to my Weapons/Bartozio stuff, in which case I find it very weird you're NOT considering them as scumcandidates.

I'm not being handwavey but logically speaking Eury/weapons being a scum team would require some massive gambiting and most likely wouldn't be pulled off.  Especially since I don't see the two of the them as the type of people to pull off some crazy ass gambit made up on the spot.  You have to realize unless bart is their buddy, which would have just been suicide for Bart, Eury/Weapons would have 100% expected Eury to die last night and wouldn't have found out what happened until the this day phase started.  Thus some semi-elaborate plan based off of night actions with redirecting and all that jazz is super weird, especially since Weapons first priority was to VOTE FUCKING EURY.

No way in hell they make up a gambit on the spot that makes them more likely to be town after Weapons instantly opens up with a vote on Eury upon day phase start and that should be looked at.

Weapons isn't getting lynched. Weapons isn't scum.  If he is then he deserves this win at the moment I feel.  It's not happening.  You can find it 'very weird' that I'm not considering Weapons or Bart as scum all you want, but thinking about actions logically would say those two are town.  Bart being scum would have been a terrible gambit on D2 when he WAS NOT under pressure that would have resulted in his DEATH if Eury didn't flip up dead today.  Scum!Bart doesn't randomly claim vig having shot Eury for ZERO fucking reason.  And reasons for Weapons have already been stated.

Yeah this is scum.

##Vote: Athena

Would also vote Prims or Snike but Athena's play today has been constant pushing of people who are basically conf town(Weapons/Bart) and commuter role is probably a lie.

Weapons can then also test the Ascetic claim if we want, but I believe the ascetic claim is probably true.

[Percivalé]

I'm really torn on prims because his role is a scum role but I don't read his play as scum

##vote: snike

if weapons or Bart are scum they can have the game at this point

[Percivalé]

I can also see scum!prims using his role to "clear" his buddy shinori but that's so unlikely I really don't want to overthink this if this is the case they can have the game. I don't see scum!prims claiming the role he did in that way either. 

[Percivalé]

so I don't know. idk! if I overthink this I'm going to die irl mafia sucks 

[Shinori]

IMO we should lynch Athena today.

[Shinori]

So in the past 24 hours 10 posts have been made.

People need to get here and people need to drop their votes down since day phase should be ending in about a day or so.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

sure

##Vote: Athena

[Athena_57]

Okay, I'm done with this crap about my commuter role being a lie. It seems I can't hide this any longer.

I used it night 1.
I unbinded night 2.
I have it available now, I can use it tonight, weapons should have an action left, correct? He can check my role.

Today we lynch Snike/Prims/whoever we decide on, tonight Weapons check me, after that you  can all decide whether

-Ascetic AND commuter in the same scumteam makes any sense (Hint:It doesn't)
-A scumteam without Snike, so with Eury, with me and with a 3rd person of your choice is the most likely
-A scumteam with Snike, so without me and Eury is more likely, including something like Prims and a townread third, imo Bart is still the most likely but looks like that ain't happening.

Obviously I'm going for the latter, I'd be down for lynching Snike, Eury (or Bart, for the record)

16 hours ago, Bartozio said:

@athena_57 Why do you think Prims gambiting here is less likely then the Weapons thing again?

I don't. In my post before yours I listed Prims in 1 of my 2 scumteams, weapons in the other. I stopped townreading Prims, I thought I made that clear.

[Shinori]

@Eurykins @Snike @Prims @Bartozio

[Snike]

Not going to vote yet just in case we get blitzed. @Shinori you should unvote to avoid it too, but I am willing to consolidate on a Athena lynch. Her claimed role and mine shouldn't exist on the same side itg.

[Bartozio]

##Vote: Athena

 

I have no idea what the current vote count is, but this should at least be enough to get Athena lynched.

[Prims]

##Unvote
##Vote: Athena
I'm okay with this.