We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[SB.]

2 minutes ago, Makaze said:

So... wait

@SB.

Does Kaoz's PM mean that the jailer merely roleblocks?

Kaoz protects his target from all attempts made on their life that night. He also prevents them from carrying out any non-killing actions themselves.

[Snike]

I don't think it changes anything because the watcher on mayor slot suggests that they were idle both nights and I still believe 100% that via is town but it means that role is much weaker than we thought previously.

[Beru]

2 minutes ago, Snike said:

I don't think it changes anything because the watcher on mayor slot suggests that they were idle both nights and I still believe 100% that via is town but it means that role is much weaker than we thought previously.

?

[Makaze]

I mean Via is 100% town anyway

But why does it matter that it's weaker atp

Who does this make look worse, according to you

[Baldrick]

Snike, Soy. Who is mafia?

[Makaze]

@Beru i must have missed it but who did you target last night and what result did you get

[Beru]

Just now, Makaze said:

@Beru i must have missed it but who did you target last night and what result did you get

I didn't target anyone.

Sully targeted Bendrick, Kaoz visited Bendrick.

Because..... Bendrick is the mayor or something and that's a day role or something so Bendrick can't go anywhere at night so I actually see a result, or something.

[Makaze]

Just now, Beru said:

I didn't target anyone.

Sully targeted Bendrick, Kaoz visited Bendrick.

Because..... Bendrick is the mayor or something and that's a day role or something so Bendrick can't go anywhere at night so I actually see a result, or something.

sounds good

[Snike]

3 hours ago, Snike said:

The second example still isn't questioning sanity; esp since I followed up that point by linking the exchange. I switched to relying on other people's input after I realized I had horrible reads when shinori flipped. I should've stayed that way

I was asking to double check. And I thought that what you quoted marth as saying was more telling bc he said the scum kill, not a scum kill.

For the record I think for at least the next 24 hours I am not going to case. I have been playing and doing my fair share of effort/ casing this entire game and it has not been productive in terms of actually finding scum and more to the point I am more than a little tired of this game.

That being said; I can see a world where omega is ITP, but I don't think he is ever mafia. Where he had reacted to the partial suspicion on the rolespec by me (I think it was on like 52 or so; when I went in on refa) was odd IMO but then he tripled pegged scum so I cleared him as not mafia off of that. 

In terms of scumreads I still think there was more than just 1 scum on the Bartozio wagon. The voters for reference:

So I have to believe that one of the networkers is scum in this scenario because alette is probably obv town and I townread hard the other two.

Up until last third of D2 I was tunneling athena hard; coming into d3 I doubted that read, especially when read in relation to shinori.

The problem is Shinori's shaded both of those slots. I feel like kirsche/kill is probably the one shaded the most since on d2 I think it was just eclipse myself and shinori on the former, so I would think he is hard cleared the most. Yes there's the potential for the double bus but I think it's more likely athena of the two + I legitimately am townreading kill right now.

I also have couple of host meta reasons for suspecting that; A)I have no idea why my character would be a networker, or connected to gaius. B)I stabbed Iris really really hard in the eimm immediately before this game.

For other scum, outside of makaze, I was going to offer belu because I don't think self-watcher and lazy watcher can coexist, but I just realized that omega being itp solves that issue.  I think PoE I have to default to walrein despite the shade thrown on him by shinori because I would put Fable Refa Via over him and I think EvilManManMan is not that evil because he's only claimed vig variant.

I still think it's scum makaze though and it goes back to zeus slot looking bad with flipped scum from memory.

I have like zero confidence in my reads but here they are. With jailkeep rev I solidly think that the sully/beru slot has to be town.

I am going to bed and am not going to be very active tomorrow until maybe late.

[Makaze]

I mean quantitatively yes, he has shaded Kirsche

but he never voted him, and he never pushed that wagon

my reads have also been shit, but i think that

kirsche > athena

id like to hear a calm, rational case on athena from you if you think im wrong. and give examples of what makes you think the votes on athena are different from actually trying to lynch him

one without gaslights preferred

[Makaze]

@athena_57

Your absence is making you look like a good lynch option.

What do you make of the current gamestate?

Who is Mafia?

[Beru]

I feel like the last month has taught me that replacing into games is something I'm bad at and shouldn't do.

[Beru]

Alternatively I could try to get better at it but it's just... being able to put ~4 game days' worth of work into less than one Day. Technically possible, realistically not going to happen. z

[Beru]

Someone remind me to do vote analysis tomorrow, I'm going to bed o/

[Beru]

Also I can't get tampermonkey to work so I can't iso/case people yoooooooooooooooooolo it's ok i can just talk to you guys about things and stuff and maybe one of you will actually directly link a post for once. y'all keep talking about things and not linking to them and i have absolutely no idea what you're talking about T_T

ok bedtime

[Baldrick]

28 minutes ago, Makaze said:

id like to hear a calm, rational case on athena from you if you think im wrong. and give examples of what makes you think the votes on athena are different from actually trying to lynch him

 

I second this. Of your scumlist I already want to lynch kirsche, walrein is too flaky, and makaze I'm more sure of.

6 minutes ago, Beru said:

Also I can't get tampermonkey to work so I can't iso/case people

If you want to see people's posts in isolation, hover over someone's name, and select the "find content" option.

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

Alette (replacing Fenrir Aesir (replacing Anime27Arts))
athena_57
Baldrick (replacing eclipse)
Beru (replacing SullyMcGully (replacing Elieson))
EvanManManMan (replacing Lord Gaius (replacing Eärendil))
Fable
Killthestory (replacing Zkirsche)
Makaze (replacing zeus_112)
Omega (replacing Marth)
Refa
Via
Walrein

 

After Arc flipped Town, I feel like Sully is unlikely to be Mafia, since I was getting vibes that they were allies.

I'm quite honestly not sure what Omega's game is with the cryptic self-vote, so I'm down for lynching him.

I still think Lord Gaius was scummy for jumping on Eclipse wagon fast even though the case was weak imo. I think I had more reasons but I can't remember them at 2 am in the morning, but I'm sure I posted them before.

I'm still convinced that Kirsche was Town, his actions were way too extreme to be scum throwing teammates under the bus. There's no way he shat on three of them before Day 2 even ended.

Walrein is slightly less of a scum read since there's really not much to read, but I think if Walrein flips scum, then it should make Athena even more clear besides the points Makaze raised, since Athena is pretty much the only time Walrein has actively pushed for anything, and that was early Day 1 when he picked on Athena for being "overly explainy", which was super nitpicky. I know it was RVS, and it's pretty WIFOM if it was two scum trying to look like they're on opposite sides or scum Walrein legit stirring the pot, but I think Walrein's flip will say something about both of those.

Getting less sure if Makaze is Town having Tough Time, or if he's actually scum directing mislynches because everyone still playing is deflated af.

[Makaze]

7 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Alette (replacing Fenrir Aesir (replacing Anime27Arts))
athena_57
Baldrick (replacing eclipse)
Beru (replacing SullyMcGully (replacing Elieson))
EvanManManMan (replacing Lord Gaius (replacing Eärendil))
Fable
Killthestory (replacing Zkirsche)
Makaze (replacing zeus_112)
Omega (replacing Marth)
Refa
Via
Walrein

 

After Arc flipped Town, I feel like Sully is unlikely to be Mafia, since I was getting vibes that they were allies.

I'm quite honestly not sure what Omega's game is with the cryptic self-vote, so I'm down for lynching him.

I still think Lord Gaius was scummy for jumping on Eclipse wagon fast even though the case was weak imo. I think I had more reasons but I can't remember them at 2 am in the morning, but I'm sure I posted them before.

I'm still convinced that Kirsche was Town, his actions were way too extreme to be scum throwing teammates under the bus. There's no way he shat on three of them before Day 2 even ended.

Walrein is slightly less of a scum read since there's really not much to read, but I think if Walrein flips scum, then it should make Athena even more clear besides the points Makaze raised, since Athena is pretty much the only time Walrein has actively pushed for anything, and that was early Day 1 when he picked on Athena for being "overly explainy", which was super nitpicky. I know it was RVS, and it's pretty WIFOM if it was two scum trying to look like they're on opposite sides or scum Walrein legit stirring the pot, but I think Walrein's flip will say something about both of those.

Getting less sure if Makaze is Town having Tough Time, or if he's actually scum directing mislynches because everyone still playing is deflated af.

Which of these would you lynch?

How do you take LG/EMMM's claim?

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

Which of these would you lynch?

How do you take LG/EMMM's claim?

If they're red they should be lynched.

The claim sounded reasonable and genuine, but thinking about the overall game, isn't it strangely weak? I'll admit, I'm not super familiar with role balance on this forum, but so far, Town's only "reliable" superpower has been the Dayvig from Alette. We had Dreaming God that's unpredictable af and Reflexive Disabler, (possibly even Delayer?), roles that can shit on Town just as well. Mayor and Caffeinator are power roles, but their influence is relatively minor. We already have another conditional role with Via. And our Role Miller is literally useless. Unless you and Refa have some godlike stuff going on (assuming you're not scum), I've having doubts.

[EvanManManMan]

10 hours ago, Baldrick said:

Was going to dispute that, but Soy already did.

At the bottom of page 67, the wagons being 7 junko, 7 kirsche, 3 eclipse, Shinori voted for eclipse. He didn't seem to mind speaking out against the junko lynch and risking heat when he flipped, so it's actually weird that he didn't secure kirsche.

He'd been objecting to both junko and kirsche in favour of eclipse. I think his switch is justified, even if it is a snap decision, because eclipse had no momentum. And I think that as mafia, given Junko's flip, he would be wary of suddenly wanting to lynch kirsche even if he had a good reason.

So if you were mafia, Shinori would have two buddies on the eclipse wagon, and wouldn't want to vote with them.

In that case, why would Snike suggesting a CFD on eclipse be scummy? Since if he was mafia, he would know that there are two mafia on the wagon

I'll keep that in mind if Omega flips before you do.

Shinori not securing Kirsche can be explained by his day 2 reads which I plan to look at. Him not securing the slot doesn't ping me as Kill being scum.

 

The statement about Shinori not wanting to vote with 2 mafia buddies is correct, and I feel that one of the reasons Shinori voted Eclipse over Kirsche or Junko was because of scum clumping together in those areas. Snike suggesting to cfd onto Eclipse would be scummy becauae it shows scum attempting to pile together on what seemed like low hanging fruit but now that I think about it, that would only make sense if Kill was scum, which I don't think. It doesn't really matter though as I was incorrect in Snike wanting to cfd onto Eclipse but his targets weren't any better being BBM and Alette iirc.

[EvanManManMan]

9 hours ago, Fable said:

Also do people not know omega is pretty against busing so him coming in and busing junko the second he comes in is pretty unlikely? 

I'd take this more factually had Omega not been voting Kirsche at EoD2. And if Omega never busses as you say this just proves that Kill is town even more, if you want to scumread Omega.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

4 hours ago, Makaze said:

my reads have also been shit, but i think that

Yes. Yes, they absolutely have. Yet, people are still listening to you because you just act confident despite having no idea what the hell you're doing. I really hope you're wolf and don't pull this as village. You come in here, case people that no one in their right mind should want to lynch, are consistently wrong, and get called village for it. You actually tried to lynch noobtown Sully yesterday, and championed a confirmed wolf counterwagon. I have no clue why anyone reads you village, and it's among the most pathetic things I've seen on this site.

I self-voted for memes, and that's the most interesting thing you guys have to talk about? Wow. @Killthestory I'm playing differently because this is SF; I play more seriously here than what you've seen at MU.

@Refa

Makaze's flip-flopping is wolfy. I don't care that you've had games where you've been wrong the entire time; this game has had easy moments. It was quite clear that kirsche/Junko held a wolf, but Makaze resisted that. It was quite clear that Sully was noobtown, but Makaze found a way to be wrong there. It was quite clear to most of us that eclipse should not have been a play, but Makaze found a way to be wrong there. It's quite clear that I'm villager, but Makaze has found a way to be wrong. It's quite clear that mass claiming today would be horrible, but Makaze has found a way to be wrong. It's wolfy. You guys are just desensitized to it because good wolves know how to push stupid bullshit but make people think that they genuinely believe it. Makaze's either just a wolf, or among the worst villagers I have ever seen in my life. I'm leaning the former.

I read the beginning of D1 where Walrein was posting, and it looked villagery to me enough that I don't want to lynch there. I think Kill's probably villa and just having a horrible game. Snike has had enough villagery moments especially with his defensive post earlier that I don't want to really lynch him either.

I'm voting athena. He was wolfy AF D1, to hell with the bussing and other shit. Also, eclipse was targeted for a kill N1. Her main pushes were athena/zeus (now Makaze), and there was the debacle from page 9-13 where zeus/Bibbon/Fable/athena got into a huge slapfight. Bibbon was villager, Fable's off the table, so that leaves zeus/athena unless you tell me it was all a bunch of villagers fighting. I doubt it though; I think zeus was either a caught wolf or athena was taking advantage of an easy push. If for some horrible reason the Makaze slot is a villager, athena's usually the wolf jumping on an easy push there. Or zeus was just caught which would explain why Makaze has been open wolfing for quite some time now. I wanted to wait until him/Walrein posted, but this village has no idea what the fuck it's doing so just kill like him, Evan, and Makaze if you guys lynch me today.

##Vote: athena

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

And yeah I know a few people point out that wolves were pushing athena, but at this point you can come up with a spicy wolf play for almost any slot so I'm not putting excessive stock into wolves' interactions.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

7 hours ago, Fable said:

Athena got tunneled by wolves and and helped push junko and corrected my bad on shinori but let's lynch him over walrein who tunneled a probable village slot and then scapegoated arc when pressured because ???.

Being ITT makes me angry. 

Then who do you want? I dunno, I thought Warlen's early D1 was okay. Only other people I'd go are Evan or Makaze.

[EvanManManMan]

@Refa what does WRT mean?