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We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER


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Makaze, your confidence is... amusing. In fact, I'd say it helps townclear you in my book because I don't believe mafia would push someone they know is town (me) with this much certainty. Then again, I remember this same level of confidence EoD2 when Kirsche had committed an "absolute scumtell" of some sort. My confidence in your towniness is unshaken. My confidence in your reasoning is pretty much gone though. 

I'm town, people. You seem to believe otherwise with a lot of certainty, but if your plan is to lynch me tomorrow regardless of how Arc flips, go ahead and lynch me now. Because I feel like my flip will do more for town than Arc's in that case. If any of you would like to ask me about particular reads and such, I can explain myself, but if you're SO certain that I'm scum that you don't think you need to engage me, then you're going to look really stupid and not very townlike when I flip. 

The fact that almost everybody agrees with Makaze's logic on me is unsettling. And Arc's defense of me is either Arc trying to confirm everyone's suspicions by acting like we're buddies or Arc actually being genuine town standing up for me for standing up for them. I'm not convinced that my flip would prove anything about anyone else, but it seems we're all sheeping Makaze here and it would be better to get it out of the way. 

One thing I want to make clear is that when I flip town, it doesn't clear Arc (I still think the slot is scummy) or make Kill automatically scum (I find Kill's play scummy, but Kirsche's play is hard to reconcile with Junko flip.) At any rate, lynch me and you won't be losing a valuable role or a valuable contributor. Arc is neither of those either, but whoever is pulling the strings here seems prepared to use an Arc lynch and ensuing flip in their favor. Lynching me should catch them by surprise and give town a slight advantage.

I don't know what I can tell you to convince you that my role is real. It's real, I've been hinting at it all game and I don't see why it's such an upset. It's not much of a gamechanger as far as roles go, and it's horribly nerfed in a role madness game. The reason I said Eclipse was cleared earlier was because of how confirmed scum (Shinori) (also I was still uncertain about BBM at that point) had tried to get her lynched.

I honestly don't know whether I should feel honored that you think I'm some kind of master mafioso who has managed to stay undercover this long or to feel insulted that you think I'm Arc's scumbuddy and I'm letting them behave the way they are. But seriously: what are Arc's hypothetical scumbuddies? Whenever you lynch Arc, if they flips scum I'd assume the scumteam is very disorganized or (more likely) unmotivated, I don't see them letting Arc run around like they have been doing. Finally, if you're like Walrein and are scumreading Arc just based off of his tone, please stop and look at Weapons. Arc is too much of a wild card to predict alignment from their tone, and they have no previous scum experience for us to look at.

If you guys would like to point out what bothers you the most about my play, I'd be grateful. Regardless of how scummy my actions look, I'm town so there must be a town reason for them. Also, for those of you who don't think I'm interested in scumhunting, that's one of three things that could produce the kind of content I have. The others are that I'm no good at scumhunting or that I don't have time for scumhunting, and those are the two reasons that my play (outside of my apparent "obvtown" moments) has been kinda poor.

I'm pretty bad at defending myself. In P5, I pretty much depended on other players to defend me and when they stopped, that's when I got mislynched. I was in a hurry earlier, but I stand by what I said. Anybody who wants to lynch my slot today should go look back at P5. This whole situation is giving me de ja vu.

Well, bummer it has to end like this. I'm not giving up on defending myself, but it seems like most of you have given up on reconsidering me. Omega made some interesting points above that are already making me reconsider my stance on Makaze, I'll post more on that in a bit.

##Vote: SullyMcGully

I don't know if voting oneself is a towntell or a scumtell, but given the current circumstances, it's what I think is best for town. Tomorrow if Makaze says anything about "obvtown" or "definitely scum", I ask that you politely ignore him. He doesn't seem to know what he's talking about.

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Just now, SullyMcGully said:

Makaze, your confidence is... amusing. In fact, I'd say it helps townclear you in my book because I don't believe mafia would push someone they know is town (me) with this much certainty. Then again, I remember this same level of confidence EoD2 when Kirsche had committed an "absolute scumtell" of some sort. My confidence in your towniness is unshaken. My confidence in your reasoning is pretty much gone though. 

I'm town, people. You seem to believe otherwise with a lot of certainty, but if your plan is to lynch me tomorrow regardless of how Arc flips, go ahead and lynch me now. Because I feel like my flip will do more for town than Arc's in that case. If any of you would like to ask me about particular reads and such, I can explain myself, but if you're SO certain that I'm scum that you don't think you need to engage me, then you're going to look really stupid and not very townlike when I flip. 

The fact that almost everybody agrees with Makaze's logic on me is unsettling. And Arc's defense of me is either Arc trying to confirm everyone's suspicions by acting like we're buddies or Arc actually being genuine town standing up for me for standing up for them. I'm not convinced that my flip would prove anything about anyone else, but it seems we're all sheeping Makaze here and it would be better to get it out of the way. 

One thing I want to make clear is that when I flip town, it doesn't clear Arc (I still think the slot is scummy) or make Kill automatically scum (I find Kill's play scummy, but Kirsche's play is hard to reconcile with Junko flip.) At any rate, lynch me and you won't be losing a valuable role or a valuable contributor. Arc is neither of those either, but whoever is pulling the strings here seems prepared to use an Arc lynch and ensuing flip in their favor. Lynching me should catch them by surprise and give town a slight advantage.

I don't know what I can tell you to convince you that my role is real. It's real, I've been hinting at it all game and I don't see why it's such an upset. It's not much of a gamechanger as far as roles go, and it's horribly nerfed in a role madness game. The reason I said Eclipse was cleared earlier was because of how confirmed scum (Shinori) (also I was still uncertain about BBM at that point) had tried to get her lynched.

I honestly don't know whether I should feel honored that you think I'm some kind of master mafioso who has managed to stay undercover this long or to feel insulted that you think I'm Arc's scumbuddy and I'm letting them behave the way they are. But seriously: what are Arc's hypothetical scumbuddies? Whenever you lynch Arc, if they flips scum I'd assume the scumteam is very disorganized or (more likely) unmotivated, I don't see them letting Arc run around like they have been doing. Finally, if you're like Walrein and are scumreading Arc just based off of his tone, please stop and look at Weapons. Arc is too much of a wild card to predict alignment from their tone, and they have no previous scum experience for us to look at.

If you guys would like to point out what bothers you the most about my play, I'd be grateful. Regardless of how scummy my actions look, I'm town so there must be a town reason for them. Also, for those of you who don't think I'm interested in scumhunting, that's one of three things that could produce the kind of content I have. The others are that I'm no good at scumhunting or that I don't have time for scumhunting, and those are the two reasons that my play (outside of my apparent "obvtown" moments) has been kinda poor.

I'm pretty bad at defending myself. In P5, I pretty much depended on other players to defend me and when they stopped, that's when I got mislynched. I was in a hurry earlier, but I stand by what I said. Anybody who wants to lynch my slot today should go look back at P5. This whole situation is giving me de ja vu.

Well, bummer it has to end like this. I'm not giving up on defending myself, but it seems like most of you have given up on reconsidering me. Omega made some interesting points above that are already making me reconsider my stance on Makaze, I'll post more on that in a bit.

##Vote: SullyMcGully

I don't know if voting oneself is a towntell or a scumtell, but given the current circumstances, it's what I think is best for town. Tomorrow if Makaze says anything about "obvtown" or "definitely scum", I ask that you politely ignore him. He doesn't seem to know what he's talking about.

Lmfao.

@Killthestory

Thoughts, please.

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Day 3.zzzzz
Arcanite (8): Refa, via, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Walrein, Killthestory, Omega., Makaze, Mackc2
Lord Gaius (3): Kaoz, Fable, Arcanite
Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy (1): Alette
SullyMcGully (1): SullyMcGully
Walrein (1): Lord Gaius

Not Voting: athena_57, Baldrick

There are ~6 hours left in the day. With 16 alive, it takes 6 to lynch and 11 to hammer.

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Please Omega, it's a long enough post as is, you didn't have to quote the whole thing again.

OK, it's hitting me that Makaze's only "guaranteed scumread" isn't scum. I could see Makaze as being the tryhard scum on a team of demotivated players, willing to bus his buddies but preferring to bus innocents (like me) when he can. He doesn't have the best history with confirmed scum (we all remember Zeus) and after bouncing off of every wagon that provided a decent defense (or an associative defense, like how Kill got him off of LG) he's settled on someone who isn't scum as definitely being scum. I swear, if he bounces off of my wagon he would pretty much be broke as far as opinions go. Yes, his confidence almost proves he isn't scum, but he could be betting on that. I doubt he'd be afraid to make the point I made in my first paragraph of the long post up there in his defense. 

Remember what I said about Arc potentially being set-up for his lynch to be used to scum advantage? Well looking at his play so far, Makaze could very well be doing that. It's worth noting that despite the fact that he thinks I'm obvscum, he hasn't even put a vote on me. I just realized that despite everyone seeming to buy Makaze's logic on me, the only one voting for me right now is... me! Which would make sense. Makaze wants to lynch Arc, potentially bussing his teammate, and then look better after the flip. If you lynch me, he looks terrible after pushing for a mislynch. 

Would somebody really go to such great lengths as Makaze has as scum? I personally doubt it, but Omega has a point that if someone did, nobody would be prepared for it. There's a simple way to test it: mislynch me and see who reacts.

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And Makaze has already completely ignored my request that he present to me a specific problem with my gameplay. Are you really that cocky? 

I want to defend myself, but you don't want to offer me the opportunity. Do you realize that there's no way town benefits from that? If I'm scum, the worst I can do is incriminate other scum. But I'm not, I want to engage with players so there's something people can build reads with once I'm gone. Do you really want to throw away that opportunity?

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Because one, I can't convince everyone else to switch on short notice. And two, Arc has to be Mafia if I am right, so that argument makes no sense. "If I am scum then Arc is also scum. Why are you lynching Arc then?"

lol

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9 minutes ago, SullyMcGully said:

Out of curiosity, what's the meta on self-voting?

It's scummy but IN MY EXPERIENCE generally frustrated town does it and gets lynched because everyone thinks it's scummy.

But it's also like...anti wincon?  Like, FYPOV you know that you're town and reading into self votes is annoying for me.

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The meta is that you only do it as Mafia to hammer in a self-lynch, or as town to hammer in a self-lynch, for some reason or another. Any other time, it's pointless AtE. That is, it's bad for both alignments, but in the case of a town, they are doing a doublethink where they think that surviving personally is more important than finding the Mafia and winning.

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Arc isn't on any team I'm a member of. Plus, Arc doesn't want to die and I do. Lynch me instead.

It's better for town if you see my flip than if you see Arc's. Therefore, a Sully lynch is better than an Arc lynch. 

Makaze, you have pretty much written off 2 players as not worthy of your further attention. I want to know what of my play is scummy. This goes for everyone else too! I want people to have something to go off of. Among the people who think I'm scummy there are most certainly scum. If you have a reason to suspect me, state it!

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I have stated my case. I painstakingly color coded your ISO for bad stuff.

Nothing you say after being called out is going to change my mind about what you were thinking back when you made those posts. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. If you are truly town, then you can do better than just dying -- you can find the true mafia and case them.

Self-defense and suicide are both anti-town motivations.

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I'm not trying to save myself. As I understand it, the town wincon is eliminating the scum. It doesn't matter if you survive to the end as long as town beats scum. If I can draw out scum with whatever time I have left, then my existence is worth it.

Whoever is calling the shots here has two lynches lined up, Arc's today and I'm probably getting hammered tomorrow. This is an ideal set up for scum, regardless of whether Arc flips scum or not. Surely I'm not the only one who sees this. If people refuse to give me real answers, there's nothing to say they aren't the very scum I'm after, hiding in order to preserve their grand design from my interference. 

NOBODY SHOULD HAVE A PROBLEM WITH LYNCHING ME! Lynching us out of order won't change anything UNLESS scum wants things the way they are. I'd rather you all find out I'm town tonight and not tomorrow night. But of course, if somebody is planning all of this, they would not be happy with that outcome, would they? 

I'm being serious. I'm not doing this for towncred, I'm doing this to make my death mean something. If you think I'm scum, lynch me. Or if you don't! I don't care what you think of me, my death will do more for town than anything else at this point.

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Instead of actually trying to understand my case, you've just asked me to rehash it, and waste my time. Once again, anti-town motivation. There is no new content other than the defenses you just gave. They are so bad that I don't even need to highlight them for people to understand. They will scumread you just by seeing it.

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12 minutes ago, SullyMcGully said:

Makaze, you have pretty much written off 2 players as not worthy of your further attention. I want to know what of my play is scummy. This goes for everyone else too! I want people to have something to go off of. Among the people who think I'm scummy there are most certainly scum. If you have a reason to suspect me, state it!

Pretty sure I sheeped Makaze's read when I initially read it, or I forgot to say that.  

1 minute ago, SullyMcGully said:

Whoever is calling the shots here has two lynches lined up, Arc's today and I'm probably getting hammered tomorrow. This is an ideal set up for scum, regardless of whether Arc flips scum or not. Surely I'm not the only one who sees this. If people refuse to give me real answers, there's nothing to say they aren't the very scum I'm after, hiding in order to preserve their grand design from my interference. 

NOBODY SHOULD HAVE A PROBLEM WITH LYNCHING ME! Lynching us out of order won't change anything UNLESS scum wants things the way they are. I'd rather you all find out I'm town tonight and not tomorrow night. But of course, if somebody is planning all of this, they would not be happy with that outcome, would they? 

If Arc flips scum, then surely scum would want to go after you?  I don't get where this is coming from.  Are you townreading Arcanite?  If so, why?

Let's assume that you're town.  Do you genuinely think a Town!You flip will make people not willing to lynch Arcanite?

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2 minutes ago, SullyMcGully said:

I'm not trying to save myself. As I understand it, the town wincon is eliminating the scum. It doesn't matter if you survive to the end as long as town beats scum. If I can draw out scum with whatever time I have left, then my existence is worth it.

Whoever is calling the shots here has two lynches lined up, Arc's today and I'm probably getting hammered tomorrow. This is an ideal set up for scum, regardless of whether Arc flips scum or not. Surely I'm not the only one who sees this. If people refuse to give me real answers, there's nothing to say they aren't the very scum I'm after, hiding in order to preserve their grand design from my interference. 

NOBODY SHOULD HAVE A PROBLEM WITH LYNCHING ME! Lynching us out of order won't change anything UNLESS scum wants things the way they are. I'd rather you all find out I'm town tonight and not tomorrow night. But of course, if somebody is planning all of this, they would not be happy with that outcome, would they? 

I'm being serious. I'm not doing this for towncred, I'm doing this to make my death mean something. If you think I'm scum, lynch me. Or if you don't! I don't care what you think of me, my death will do more for town than anything else at this point.

Why can't this wait until the lynch on D4?

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2 minutes ago, Refa said:

Pretty sure I sheeped Makaze's read when I initially read it, or I forgot to say that.  

If Arc flips scum, then surely scum would want to go after you?  I don't get where this is coming from.  Are you townreading Arcanite?  If so, why?

Let's assume that you're town.  Do you genuinely think a Town!You flip will make people not willing to lynch Arcanite?

I'm not trying to protect Arcanite. I think they're probably scum. But I think that the mafia is equipped to use their death to their advantage. They're bussing him. Arc's post where he seems to imply that I'm his buddy suggests as much. Somebody is going to come out of this looking better than they should. If I die, then people can still lynch Arcanite tomorrow. But my death will make things happen for the Mafia faster than they want them to.

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Also I just checked and only me/Snike/Mackc2/Makaze were on board with your case, which seems a bit less than everyone.

Just now, SullyMcGully said:

I'm not trying to protect Arcanite. I think they're probably scum. But I think that the mafia is equipped to use their death to their advantage. They're bussing him. Arc's post where he seems to imply that I'm his buddy suggests as much. Somebody is going to come out of this looking better than they should. If I die, then people can still lynch Arcanite tomorrow. But my death will make things happen for the Mafia faster than they want them to.

Cool.  I just read your claim though and I think that's town, so...

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1 minute ago, SullyMcGully said:

I'm not trying to protect Arcanite. I think they're probably scum. But I think that the mafia is equipped to use their death to their advantage. They're bussing him. Arc's post where he seems to imply that I'm his buddy suggests as much. Somebody is going to come out of this looking better than they should. If I die, then people can still lynch Arcanite tomorrow. But my death will make things happen for the Mafia faster than they want them to.

That makes 0 sense. Mafia want to get to a world where they = the number of town as fast as possible. Every mislynch matters. If Arc is getting lynched either way, then Mafia would prefer the mislynches happen sooner, especially because it gives them time to NK the main leaders on the Arc wagon.

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@SullyMcGully Wait, what?  Why would lynching scum first over lynching you first (assuming scum is bussing Arcanite) be WORSE for scum?  Are you high?????

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