We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Percivalé]

I have to work and will be gone for potentially 7 hours and might not be here for phase end I'll try my best though 

[Percivalé]

I'll read your case when I get back makaze but for the record I don't think sully voting himself really means anything aside from he's frustrated & he hasn't played a lot of mafia here yet so I think he legitimately believes killing himself is the best thing for town. I've done the same thing

[Percivalé]

has arc even claimed yet?

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

http://www.strawpoll.me/15542728

In the interest of determining our villa reads, please fill out the above poll. Free villa points to whoever picks the right answer. Players only.

[Makaze]

Alright, now that is an actual defense.

I have some counter points: You never expanded on eclipse. Furthermore, this isn't about what town thinks about eclipse. Even this defense is scum oriented: You are just reading the room and saying "So this is what we think now. Okay."

That's also why that bit about Bibbons is blue and the vote itself is red. You read the room. You spoke to the room to get a feel for how people would react to your vote. Then you voted.

You have hedged on people, but ultimately you voted people who were being scumread by others and tested the waters before you made moves.

The only times you haven't done this have been times when you were defending people we now know are flipped mafia.

That's the gun.

Even now you're asking people about meta on self-votes.

[Percivalé]

it makes me kind of paranoid makaze that you jumped for the sully case the very minute refa and I expressed very brief concern about him, like very opportunistic. the timing is weird.

[SullyMcGully]

2 minutes ago, Makaze said:

@SullyMcGully There is one question in your scenario that needs answering and that is, who would be your deep wolf if Arc is Mafia and you are town? How can you be sure that the town will correctly find this wolf if you can't even do it, are the only one who suspects it, and are lynching yourself instead of casing other people?

How is town helped if we don't find the other Mafia before you die?

You wouldn't have to find them before I die. You would find them after I was dead. My death, including those who cased me and their reasons for doing so, would produce material for reads. Particularly, it would get you scumread like crazy. 

I believe my actions so far have drawn enough attention to the potential ramifications of a townread like Makaze being in-deep in this situation. You can still lynch me and I believe it will still produce favorable long-term results, but I believe my point has been made. 

##Vote: Arcanite

It will happen sooner or later. I don't mean to stand in the way of it, but with the amount of mud that has been thrown in the water around this one, there is no way we're getting any good reads out of this one if it flips scum.

[Makaze]

Second counter point on eclipse claim: Why would you watch eclipse if you weren't already reading her town before that night? And why would the town's consensus matter more to you than the result, to the point you didn't even think to bring it up in this defense?

[SullyMcGully]

The reason what town says matters is because if town wasn't already townreading Eclipse, I would see fit to make that point myself. Since it was kind of obvious, there was no such need because nobody was coming out and saying they thought the Eclipse slot was more scummy after what had happened that night. And while I didn't have a strong townread on Eclipse leading up to the D2 lynch, after Shinori flipped my reasoning was:

1) Tomorrow everyone will know Eclipse is town

2) The scum knows that everyone knows that

3) The scum might target Eclipse with the NK tonight

4) Eclipse is the only confirmed player who can't mess with my ability

5) I should watch Eclipse and see if she gets NKd.

[Makaze]

3 minutes ago, Vi-astra said:

it makes me kind of paranoid makaze that you jumped for the sully case the very minute refa and I expressed very brief concern about him, like very opportunistic. the timing is weird.

The reason for that is that it actually was caused by someone suspecting him causing me to check my list and make sure I was still sure he couldn't be Mafia. When I checked my notes Sully was the only town read on my PoE that I had not ISO'd since scum had flipped and I originally wrote a post that began with "Actually I think that Sully is cleared. Let me see:" This was in response to Refa, iirc. If you check my PoE you'll notice that I cleared Sully but I have never actually interacted with him until today. That is because I had never read him and had taken it for granted that he was town without having any specific reasons for thinking so.

Then when I read Sully I actually quoted all of his votes and decided to highlight my reads. Originally I was going for green and red, with orange for wishy-washy. Firstly I noticed that he had weird interactions with JB, from his first vote post in the game. Then the Bibbons "i will vote here later" comment. And most importantly, he voted and unvoted people like 4 times in a row. It was obvious he was not actually casing or solving, but was trying to get a feel for how people felt so that he could sheep reliably. That got me onto him, and when I highlighted all of the things I saw, there was actually nothing clearing, and in fact, he had only read consensus and sheeped it, except on confirmed scum players. I made a point of highlighting his posts instead of giving my own logic because I wanted was so convinced that it was accurate that I don't need to spin my own narrative other than point out how consistent his play is with the same tactics for every lynch.

[Makaze]

Sorry to go off on that, but I consider my thought process obvious and don't mind explaining it, especially in this case where you're right, it was because of what Refa said.

[Makaze]

9 minutes ago, SullyMcGully said:

The reason what town says matters is because if town wasn't already townreading Eclipse, I would see fit to make that point myself. Since it was kind of obvious, there was no such need because nobody was coming out and saying they thought the Eclipse slot was more scummy after what had happened that night. And while I didn't have a strong townread on Eclipse leading up to the D2 lynch, after Shinori flipped my reasoning was:

1) Tomorrow everyone will know Eclipse is town

2) The scum knows that everyone knows that

3) The scum might target Eclipse with the NK tonight

4) Eclipse is the only confirmed player who can't mess with my ability

5) I should watch Eclipse and see if she gets NKd.

Is there a reason you wouldn't do this action as Mafia with your role? Why or why not.

[SullyMcGully]

Just now, Makaze said:

Is there a reason you wouldn't do this action as Mafia with your role? Why or why not.

Why would Mafia want a watcher? To confirm town roles? I honestly don't know what scum would do with a watcher role, but I suppose if scum watched Eclipse, they could see if anybody visited her and then maybe NK that person later as a probable protective role.

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, SullyMcGully said:

Why would Mafia want a watcher? To confirm town roles? I honestly don't know what scum would do with a watcher role, but I suppose if scum watched Eclipse, they could see if anybody visited her and then maybe NK that person later as a probable protective role.

That's not the question I asked. Assuming you got that role as Mafia, how would you use it? How would it be different from what you did in this scenario?

[Makaze]

Would you have targeted eclipse at all? If not, who?

[SullyMcGully]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

That's not the question I asked. Assuming you got that role as Mafia, how would you use it? How would it be different from what you did in this scenario?

I would use it on either Eclipse or Omega. Eclipse for reasons stated before, Omega just to test his role and see if it was faked.

[SullyMcGully]

I've gotta go now. I'm leaving my vote where it is. I thought Snike's jump on me a few pages ago seemed fishy, but I've wasted all of my time defending myself instead. 

[Makaze]

I agree, you should actually case your other mafia suspect(s).

The fact that you went full AtE and both you and Arcanite self-imploded is NOT what town should do to win. It's simply not. I especially don't like that you're not hard scum reading me. You aren't solving. You aren't even paranoid. You're acting like you know what to do in this situation despite not knowing who the last Mafia is, and that's worrying.

@Vi-astra I think you said you saw that the way that Sully has handled the Arc slot throughout the game does not look good. I've stated my side. Can you give your own thoughts on that? 

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

I agree, you should actually case your other mafia suspect(s).

The fact that you went full AtE and both you and Arcanite self-imploded is NOT what town should do to win. It's simply not. I especially don't like that you're not hard scum reading me. You aren't solving. You aren't even paranoid. You're acting like you know what to do in this situation despite not knowing who the last Mafia is, and that's worrying.

@Vi-astra I think you said you saw that the way that Sully has handled the Arc slot throughout the game does not look good. I've stated my side. Can you give your own thoughts on that? 

More on this: You have picked a strategy, a very bad strategy, and it does not involve coming up with alternatives. It involves convincing me you are town, and that's all. I don't buy for a second that you want to get lynched as any alignment. Nothing you do is honest, and even if your strategy does come from town, you're just trying to entrap someone into casing you, which no self-respecting scum is going to do in this situation. It's so bad that it's mind boggling, and I cannot believe that anyone would town read you for it. You are never getting lynched when you pull this, unless the wagon is already happening in the same phase and it's not a CFD to lynch you. This simply doesn't hold up.

Here's the thing. You are hyper conscious of the game state and actively sheep the town's reads, which is why I'm scumreading you. Therefore you KNOW this strategy has no chance of leading to your lynch today, and you also know that it has the best chance of making people doubt my case me and not lynch you D4. What I'm not seeing from you is helping them solve beyond keeping yourself alive. In fact, you have actively said that you think it's impossible, and you'd rather die. And now you're outing for the rest of the phase.

This is scummy and I am still shocked that people are even halfway buying it.

[Makaze]

PS: Just to make my PoE clear: Only world I see where I am wrong on Sully and right on Arcanite is one where LG is mafia. LG is cleared if and only if Sully flips scum.

@Omega. I'd like to see some actual thoughts here please

 

[SB.]

Day 3.zzzzz+1
Arcanite (9): Refa, via, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Walrein, Killthestory, Omega., Makaze, Mackc2, SullyMcGully
Lord Gaius (3): Kaoz, Fable, Arcanite
Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy (1): Alette
Walrein (1): Lord Gaius

Not Voting: athena_57, Baldrick

There are ~2 hours left in the day. With 16 alive, it takes 6 to lynch and 11 to hammer.

[Alette]

I'm not really sure how to articulate why I currently don't like the Arc wagon, but the push to it seems very messy. I'm not liking how the hydra is there, but how kill is pushing it just vibes scummy. I'm still catching up from page 108 to, but weapons frustration before Arc came in seemed townie too.

[Alette]

Arc has been sounding weird and I will agree there, but like the pile on now seems like a mislynch is about to happen. 

[Makaze]

Alette, how many Mafia do you think are alive? The game started with 22 players and 3 are dead. At maximum we have 6 Mafia, and 1 ITP. I have suspected for the whole game that Weapons is the ITP, but these associations with Sully make him look more like he has buddies after all, and Sully is one of them. There are enough people people in the town to make this lynch happen without a single mafia vote. If we assume Arc is one of them, then only two could be Mafia votes.

Alette, please read this post: 
If you do nothing else this game, read it, and give your opinion on it

 

[Alette]

6 minutes ago, Makaze said:

Alette, how many Mafia do you think are alive? The game started with 22 players and 3 are dead. At maximum we have 6 Mafia, and 1 ITP. I have suspected for the whole game that Weapons is the ITP, but these associations with Sully make him look more like he has buddies after all, and Sully is one of them. There are enough people people in the town to make this lynch happen without a single mafia vote. If we assume Arc is one of them, then only two could be Mafia votes.

Alette, please read this post: 
If you do nothing else this game, read it, and give your opinion on it

I'm catching up before that post too because I wanted to understand what happened. Then I saw the Arc stuff and I think it's at least 5 mafia and probably 1 3rd party role. 6 mafia in a 22 player game seems too imbalanced with a 3p.