We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Beru]

2 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

Well Alette is a day vig and my shot is conditional so it's not like 1 night 1 kill disproves 3 vigs

does alette... have more than one shot

that's not what I meant like the other way where 

 

actually did jk guy ever claim when he was alive who did he target n1 if so and if that secret is lost forever I sad

[Refa]

6 minutes ago, Vi-astra said:

yeah sorry i'll decide who i think is the scumteam is after a nap with my cat. had a bad brain day and i need some sleepies. i re-thought something though and i think it's entirely possible snike could be scum now.

eh don't feel pressured to change your reads to conform, just want to know your thoughts cause i could be right/wrong on snike and wanted more opinions

7 minutes ago, Makaze said:

If Snike flips scum, it seems incredibly unlikely that Athena is mafia. Reasoning:

Shinori hardcore pushed the wagon. His first post about athena:

11 hours ago, athena_57 said:

RVS is boring. Let's see how fast we can get out of this...

##Vote: Zeus

Get your lazy ass over here, goddamnit.

FTR I'm leaning slightly town on the hydra slot, but I could see them being scum. Scum/Town hydra seems extremely unlikely, but I have to say it would also be extremely GAS

This post is bad.

I don't see any Shinori posts on that page?

9 minutes ago, Alette said:

Pretty sure that Kill can be w/w with Snike because of the D3 Arc push and he never really mentioned Snike much.

What do you think of Makaze's reasoning for why Kill's slot doesn't make sense as scum?  I SHEEPED IT.

4 minutes ago, Vi-astra said:

fwiw beru shinori was being universally townread by most of the game so it's possible the itp thought they were shooting town.

man i didn't know this was a thing until shinori died

like i went into d3 fully expecting to vote shinori and get him lynched as easy as jaybee

 

[Refa]

Just now, Beru said:

actually did jk guy ever claim when he was alive who did he target n1 if so and if that secret is lost forever I sad

eclipse/baldrick n1, via n2, eclipse/baldrick n3 (judging from your results anyways)

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

22 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

Snike also supported and eclipsd cfd which prompts some degree of buddying.

We didn't support the Eclipse wagon at all, if I understand your sentence properly. Snike was very vocally against it, while I thought the cases on Eclipse were poorly developed.

[EvanManManMan]

2 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

We didn't support the Eclipse wagon at all, if I understand your sentence properly. Snike was very vocally against it, while I thought the cases on Eclipse were poorly developed.

You are correct and I misread Snike's posts, but his cfd targets were BBM, flipped town, and myself, who should be proven town based on day 2 VCA. Not much better tbh. Though the buddying argument can't be played what can be played is the fact that BBM was night killed the night after, which could easily have been Snike distancing from scum actions.

[Beru]

6 minutes ago, Refa said:

eclipse/baldrick n1, via n2, eclipse/baldrick n3 (judging from your results anyways)

ahhhhh

 

that might be where the other kill went then

[Iris]

Day 4.5 - Votals
Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy (4): Makaze, Refa, Alette, EvanManManMan
EvanManManMan (1): Omega.
Omega. (1): Killthestory

Not Voting: Everyone Else

You have ~68.5 hours left in the day. With 13 alive, it takes 5 to lynch and 9 to hammer.

[EvanManManMan]

I asked in my wall why Makaze is not being scumread and I still haven't gotten an answer.

[SullyMcGully]

2 hours ago, Makaze said:

I have a post that I was working on overnight and I will post it now.

Sully post draft:

----

I spent about ten minutes last night refreshing the page and yelling at Iris about death godfathers before she told me this wasn't a bastard game. GG Weapons, may you never play again.

About an hour has passed since phase end for me and I am calming down and going to actually consider a world where Sully's waffling and generally sheeping of the entire town is not a scum tell. I also actually read his late phase defenses. Towards the end of his defenses he reads way more genuine, like how despite me thinking that his constant P5 meta shit is scummy, his final appeal to it reads good tonally. I think I can understand where people are coming from saying he's just bad, and I don't see any reason not to engage him.

I am now reading P5 Mafia.

---

I've read his ISO. I do not like his play there either, because he is jumpy and opportunistic in his cases and it is harder to follow his reasoning than if he had a clear logic. If there is any difference between P5 Mafia and now, it's that he has some buffers between his cases, and always questions the people he is voting.

I don't think I can criticize him on his style of vote swapping as alignment indicative. However, I think that his reads in this game were not based on pushes to gain information like in P5, because they did not come with questions. Simply put, he followed the town here, and in P5, he was doing his own thing, within reason.

Some points against him on meta are that he also talked more to his scum suspects directly, and I definitely did not see the kind of room reading and waters testing behavior he has had this game in P5 mafia. In this game he has not expressed anywhere near the same level of personal thoughts on players. In particular, he has soft shaded many people but has not followed up on a lot of the things he said he would. In P5 Mafia he actually did address many people multiple times and seemed to be working multiple cases at once. Compared to P5 Sully seems to be one track minded in this game and only passingly comments on the flow of the game instead of showing the flow of his own mind.

I think there is a world where he intentionally decided to sheep this time instead of push every thought he has because of bad reads in P5, but his play in P5 was townier for the same reason: it was obvious he was actually trying to come up with ideas and bring out new information that the town didn't already have.

Compared to then, he has barely questioned anyone this game. That's the definitive difference I've seen because while most of the other elements are in this game, he hasn't explicitly tried to get information from anyone. He has seemed content to get a read of how others will take his push, assess the game state, and sheep consensus, and oddly, the only things he disagrees with in that consensus are scumreads on confirmed scum. In a world where he is town, this meta change and the sheer ridiculousness of the cases seems bad.

JB is one contradiction to this argument, but he did defend JB at one point and then went back on it. Instead of just defending him like he did Junko and Shinori, he sheeped both the initial vote on JB and the unvote with some form of "I agree with what someone else said against them/in their favor". This is not alignment indicative and reads the most genuine of their flipped scum interactions, but the completely lack of personal thoughts still doesn't help matters. Questions on this later.

There are definitive differences in his play between these games, and I think the changes are scummy with regard to: how much he interacts with people he is casing; how many questions he asks to confirm his suspicions; how much independent reading he follows up on compared to what he says he needs to; and how accurate his reads have been in general. As generating new content for town goes, he has not contributed at all compared to P5.

Back to the topic at hand: I think that his defenses at the end of the day read genuine, even if his logic on Arc is ridiculous, and I cannot see a world where this makes sense as any alignment, so the tone is really all I have to go on. I initially took it for granted that they would be terrible because he self-voted and went into AtE land, but actually reading them, he is seriously trying to convince me and the way he is insisting doesn't seem faked.

Makaze, I think I can see where you're coming from here. In P5, I was constantly under FoS and had to fight hard to be townread. I forced everything I did to be as townie as possible. In this game, I entered as a townread and admittedly, got lazy. I felt more comfortable making sheepy votes or using half-thought-out reasoning. The only time I actually put real effort in was making the Kirsche case. That was because I genuinely thought Kirsche was the scum in the 1v1 situation and that Junko was about to be mislynched. This game, I've felt comfortable doing scummy things because I didn't think I was at risk of being scumread. In a way, it's only right that I'm getting scumread like this.

I cannot begin to express how mad I am about the Weapons slot.

I am willing to give him a chance to answer my concerns and show his mind.

@SullyMcGully What I'd like is for you to explain your progression in the quotes below. I will be specific about what bothers me and I want you to explain why you voted that way and why you unvoted later, to make it make sense.

What were your personal thoughts on JB at this time? What made you want to sheep this read instead of another one?

I honestly don't remember. All I can recall is that at the time there was solid evidence against JB and I had nothing to show for a Kirsche case.

What did you think of Shinori when you wrote this? What were your suspicions with Kirsche's intentions/associations?

Shinori was a prominent townread at the time, and I didn't feel like challenging that. It's worth noting I'm always wary of scumreading Shinori, I got a ton of flak for tonereading him in P5 (even though he was scum!) Compared to that game and Antiheroes, I thought Shinori was keeping remarkably cool in this game and I thought that was more of a town Shinori thing.

Noting you towncleared Kirsche here. You also claimed to have been scumreading Shinori the whole time, along with BBM. At what point did you start to suspect Shinori, and how did it fit in with your Kirsche read? Citing the post where it changed is a plus.

I began suspecting Shinori the moment Junko flipped scum. No sooner, no later. The reason was that while Omega had first proposed the 1v1 when he first entered, it wasn't until Kirsche became a viable lynch along with Junko that Shinori (and BBM also) decided to come down against it. It seemed like Shinori and BBM could both be scum who had settled for a Junko lynch, but then seen a chance to postpone it when the Kirsche wagon popped up. They could avoid casing Kirsche himself and looking scummy after his flip, but make it so that town wouldn't immediately lynch Junko after Kirsche flipped. That's the way I saw it at the time, I might have been right about Shinori but I was definitely wrong about BBM. 

What were you thinking when you made this vote? How does it relate to eclipse?

JB was kinda the best option. Something I struggled with a lot in P5 was having unique reasoning for all of my votes. Since I was being townread at the time, I felt comfortable with more boldfaced sheeping of popular wagons. It's unrelated to clearing Eclipse as town, that was tied to the Shinori flip.

What scenario are you imagining happening here? Walk me through your reasoning behind this question/argument.

As I said earlier, I suspected BBM for the same reasons as I suspected Shinori. 

Note: I think this spec rules out any world where Sully is an SK, just by sheer thought process.

I also have a second post where I did rereads and I will post that after Sully responds.

OK, so here's how I'm seeing Makaze right now. I'd say he's about 90% town, with a 10% chance he's a really, really good scumplayer. My debacle yesterday was supposed to call Makaze's judgement into question, he read me as obvscum, I felt like all of town agreed with him, and I thought that as long as I existed, I would be an easy lynch for scum so might as well go ahead of Arc anyway. If I had died first, than whoever was planned on profiting from bussing Arc (I was convinced Arc was scummy based on his content, NOT HIS TONE) would have to deal with the suspicion of having mislynched me instead. Alternatively, the self-vote scandal seems to have backfired. I successfully brought towncred back to my slot somehow. 

In a hypothetical 10% universe where Makaze is scum, the fact that a lot of obvtown players (Via, Refa, Alette, and Arc I guess) swept my way at EoD3 and my wacky defense strategy scared him off of mislynching me today because it would draw to much attention to him. If I were to be mislynched today, it would be two mislynches in a row primarily led by Makaze. Maybe without my accusations targeted at that slot, Scumkaze would feel confident enough to support that. This is all wild conjecture though, Makaze is probably town. I trust my sub will provide you with actual reads.

Thank you Iris for graciously allowing me to reply to this. I'm not subbing out because of in-game circumstances, I'm subbing out because my best friends are holding an intervention to get me to stop stressing out about stuff and this is one of the things that's been stressing me. I promise I'll stop reading after this. Good luck Beru, and good luck town. May my slot distract you from the pursuit of scum no longer.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Beru said:

ahhhhh

that might be where the other kill went then

yeah eclipse is either mafia who got blocked on the kill (unlikely) or town who got shot at.

1 minute ago, EvanManManMan said:

I asked in my wall why Makaze is not being scumread and I still haven't gotten an answer.

 the way he's analyzing and reinterpreting things on such a rapid basis is not only extremely difficult to do as scum, but also completely unnecessary.  also scum!makaze doesn't townread multiple potential lynch targets so easily, it'd just make him look bad later on when he has to lynch them.

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

3 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

You are correct and I misread Snike's posts, but his cfd targets were BBM, flipped town, and myself, who should be proven town based on day 2 VCA. Not much better tbh. Though the buddying argument can't be played what can be played is the fact that BBM was night killed the night after, which could easily have been Snike distancing from scum actions.

Why would scum kill off their scumread targets when they can push for a mislynch with them in the Day? I don't think that line of reasoning makes sense. Regardless of whether or not scum townreads or scumreads someone, scum is going to kill Town anyway. I think the "distancing from scum actions" argument is too contrived.

[Alette]

4 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Why would scum kill off their scumread targets when they can push for a mislynch with them in the Day? I don't think that line of reasoning makes sense. Regardless of whether or not scum townreads or scumreads someone, scum is going to kill Town anyway. I think the "distancing from scum actions" argument is too contrived.

I know this isn't directed at me, but i would get weary if a lot of  started going after a scum read

[EvanManManMan]

2 minutes ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Why would scum kill off their scumread targets when they can push for a mislynch with them in the Day? I don't think that line of reasoning makes sense. Regardless of whether or not scum townreads or scumreads someone, scum is going to kill Town anyway. I think the "distancing from scum actions" argument is too contrived.

This point always gets countered with what you said, and the reason one would kill a potential mislynch target is to play this exact card in defense. I know the argument is heavily based on WIFOM but that shouldn't nullify it entirely.

 

Snike is also not the only mafia member and a scum rolecop/PR hunting are also plausible causes for the BBM kill if Snike was mafia.

[Alette]

gdi

[Beru]

6 minutes ago, Refa said:

yeah eclipse is either mafia who got blocked on the kill (unlikely) or town who got shot at.

 the way he's analyzing and reinterpreting things on such a rapid basis is not only extremely difficult to do as scum, but also completely unnecessary.  also scum!makaze doesn't townread multiple potential lynch targets so easily, it'd just make him look bad later on when he has to lynch them.

super unlikely considering he was blocked last night too :p

 

ye this is probably town Makaze. unfortunately his personality is Just Like This. trying to engage with him to change his mind is a waste of time and you're better off waiting for him to do it on his own probably why am I writing this this is his home forum lmao y'all know this already

[EvanManManMan]

Spicy Tinfoil: Snike/Satsuma claimed miller hoping a scum buddy would claim rolecop but they died before they claimed.

[Alette]

1 minute ago, Alette said:

I know this isn't directed at me, but i would get weary if a lot of people started going after a scum read. It would set an alarm in my head unlike them pushing their own reads.

EBWOP

[Alette]

@RefaI'm not seeing the explanation on Kill

[EvanManManMan]

Wait did Makaze get roleblocked?

 

In that case, unless Omega claimed roleblocker, Makaze would be confirmed  town as there is no town roleblocker claim.

[Refa]

Just now, EvanManManMan said:

Spicy Tinfoil: Snike/Satsuma claimed miller hoping a scum buddy would claim rolecop but they died before they claimed.

I don't think Scum!Snike claims Role Miller without it being his fakeclaim, which does imply a Town Rolecop existing!  Presumably one of the unclaimed people lol, but who knows.  I wouldn't scumread him because of his, anyways.

Just now, Alette said:

@RefaI'm not seeing the explanation on Kill

It's in his wall post.

1 minute ago, EvanManManMan said:

Wait did Makaze get roleblocked?

In that case, unless Omega claimed roleblocker, Makaze would be confirmed  town as there is no town roleblocker claim.

AFAIK, he didn't (did he claim this?).  Baldrick was the one who got jailed on N3.

[Alette]

25 minutes ago, Beru said:

does alette... have more than one shot

that's not what I meant like the other way where 

 

actually did jk guy ever claim when he was alive who did he target n1 if so and if that secret is lost forever I sad

I only had that one shot

[Beru]

2 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

Spicy Tinfoil: Snike/Satsuma claimed miller hoping a scum buddy would claim rolecop but they died before they claimed.

maybe they're just acting in advance of a town investigative in general

[Alette]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

I don't think Scum!Snike claims Role Miller without it being his fakeclaim, which does imply a Town Rolecop existing!  Presumably one of the unclaimed people lol, but who knows.  I wouldn't scumread him because of his, anyways.

It's in his wall post.

AFAIK, he didn't (did he claim this?).  Baldrick was the one who got jailed on N3.

All he stated was kill can't be mafia, but not the reason for it. 

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

3 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

This point always gets countered with what you said, and the reason one would kill a potential mislynch target is to play this exact card in defense. I know the argument is heavily based on WIFOM but that shouldn't nullify it entirely.

 

Snike is also not the only mafia member and a scum rolecop/PR hunting are also plausible causes for the BBM kill if Snike was mafia.

That's three levels of WIFOM and more like a waste of time, in my opinion.

1 minute ago, EvanManManMan said:

Spicy Tinfoil: Snike/Satsuma claimed miller hoping a scum buddy would claim rolecop but they died before they claimed.

We claimed our role way back, as soon as Snike subbed in.

 

tfw everyone refers to Snike almost like a separate slot

[Refa]

Also judging from general SF meta, scum almost 100% has a Rolecop, so they could definitely claim it to clear Snike if they haven't already.