We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Beru]

that shouldn't be "and also" that should be "but also"

[Beru]

how is this still the same Day i subbed in wtf

[Athena_57]

The more Makaze interactions I see, the less I like it. Though I can still see the Omega ITP theory, I also like Omega's points on Makaze. The interactions between them make me willing to lynch either of them, if only for the associative reads it would provide. I would reread Makaze, but I honestly don't know if I'll get around to reading the fuckton of posts he made, so I guess I'll stick with rereading the last 24 hours or so in depth.

The roleblocking shenanigans around Walrein don't necessarily clear him, but I don't think we should lynch him for now.

Regarding Snoyke, I suppose I phrased it a bit awkwardly in my previous posts, I didn't mean I was townreading them the entire time, I meant I saw their overall behavior as towny for a long time. Their defense is bad in my eyes, I'd be willing to lynch here as well.

Can people tell me why Beru is clear again? I don't remember and they would be in my PoE pool. I can understand townreading them slightly over gut, but they're nowhere near as clear as some others.

Giving Evan a chance to prove his role seems fair and I like motivating him, which is another reason to not lynch Walrein yet.

Alette, Via, Fable, Refa still clear in my eyes. I'm not buying the Refa ITP theory, I think there are more likely targets out there. Perhaps if everyone besides these 4 is gone I'd consider it, but not until then.

After these 4 Baldrick is the biggest townread, extremely close to being clear. Kill is looking pretty towny as well I think, though I'm having trouble judging him due to his posting style.

 

Assuming I just missed the reason why Beru is clear, I'd be willing to lynch any of Snoyke, Omega, Makaze.

If it's just a collective gutread, I'd honestly consider voting Beru over Snoyke.

 

I'm holding off on judging between Makaze and Omega and thus voting until I've reread the former, expect me to have done it in about 4 hours from now.

[Percivalé]

the biggest thing I don't like about makaze is he's led the town at least three circles around and we stop at the same place every time, inconclusive.  and it's making me paranoid he's doing this on purpose 

[Refa]

It's finally happened.  I've started drinking entirely due to a mafia game.  Anyways, I'm back, I skimmed what happened before.  Kill scumread me because I scumread him (bitch please, I invented the word town) which reminded me of my earlier town games but I should read in more detail, Makaze/Omega totally want each others' dick (BTW, they're both town), and I feel like Makaze is stealth insulting me by saying I'd be a "really good ITP" when I'm town.

 

[Refa]

7 hours ago, Omega. said:

Refa, do you get anything out of that votecount? Specifically 3.16.

Open question to everyone while we're contemplating anyone at this point.

Did you get anything out of it??

If there are two scum, then the answer's easy.  Scum's on the Arcanite wagon.  If there's only one scum left, I'd look into people who didn't seem like they cared what wagon they were on.  I mean, I know you wanted to lynch both, but something more apathetic.  I'd look into Snike/Athena/Kill for that.  Also shoutouts to Lord Gaius avoiding the lynch even though he wasn't even around to vote his counterwagon.

@Killthestory Firstly, I mentioned that I didn't have the time to look at all of your posts (going to do it now, after replies).  Secondly, quite frankly your posts weren't as important to me.  You subbed in after all of the flipped scum got lynched/killed and didn't interact w/any of them.  I cased you just now because all of my other scumreads died out and I needed to reread people.  

I had an entire paragraph deconstructing your points but you're literally taking every single thing I do and saying "well, this could be scum".  @Omega. I'm pretty sure I could dayvig scum at this point and he'd still find a way to say that it's scummy ("Damn, ITP!Refa is trying to win those town points").  Like this is ridiculous, I'm legitimately getting frustrated here.  Please explain to me why this slot is obvious town after he cases me and then says "no nevermind, literally everything Refa did is scummy now because he cased me!".  That's a serious not-rhetorical question.  @Makaze You said his responses were town, you can answer this too.  He did a similar thing to Snike despite Snike only voting Kill because me/Makaze convinced him.  But yeah, CLEARLY Snike was being super opportunistic.

@Makaze Not related to Kill but what's your read on Evan?  If Walrein is scum, I'll be super salty because I claimed to him a day ago (it affected my reads on some people and I wanted SOMEONE'S input and was like "well, this all checks out and his role is obvious town).

[Baldrick]

2 hours ago, athena_57 said:

Can people tell me why Beru is clear again? I don't remember and they would be in my PoE pool. I can understand townreading them slightly over gut, but they're nowhere near as clear as some others.

Can't speak for other people, but near the beginning of the day I said I thought the way Sully interacted with Arcanite last phase suggests he didn't know Arcanite's alignment and so is not mafia.

##vote: Snike

[Refa]

Sully was obvious town.  Never lynch.  Don't think he made sense as ITP either, what with the lack of self preservation.

[Athena_57]

13 hours ago, Snike said:

Also I think athena townreading my slot consistently is false. I distinctly remember him reading me as mostly null and I believe yesterday he scumread?

Noticed this whilst rereading, missed it the first time around. You're right, I wasn't townreading you consistently, I phrased it a bit awkwardly, I was referring back to mid day 1 to mid day 3, which is where I townread you iirc. So when I said it's hard to leave my townread behind I was referring to that.

7 minutes ago, Refa said:

Sully was obvious town.  Never lynch.  Don't think he made sense as ITP either, what with the lack of self preservation.

I'm not sure I agree on the obvtown part, but you're right they can't be ITP. In any case, I agree they're not the lynch today.

 

Rereading Makaze made me more confused tbh. What I noticed was that whilst reading his post I was more getting into the flow of his thought process than actually analyzing the intent behind it, which I guess is a good thing? @Refa Could you try to explain what makes Makaze town for you or is it just the same feeling I have where his cases feel genuine despite being bad? I personally am torn between good gut vibes and bad actual behavior here.

Also, I realized I forgot to give my take on the empower/Kaoz thing. I agree either Walrein is lying about the modmistake or the empowered person killed Kaoz. I also agree the most likely empower target was someone he jailed. Alette, Baldrick, Omega and Snoyke had claimed to not have night actions. I now it wasn't me. I don't think Sully had either a powerful role or was likely to be killed. Kaoz was scumreading LG.
This leaves Fable, Kill, Makaze, Refa, Via and Walrein. I am certain enough in Fable and Via being neither mafia nor ITP to scrap them off this list. Assuming Walrein didn't lie about the modmistake (which we're assuming in this scenario), he can't be the killer either.

Between Kill, Makaze and Refa I'd lynch Makaze > Kill >>>>> Refa (Pretty sure he's town, just not 100%, more like 95%).

I need some input from people on this though as I'm still torn on Makaze.

[Refa]

Also someone said Fable could be ITP but I don't think Role Bomb is a good ITP role unless it works w/BPV.  For ITP, I'd look into anyone who's not Alette/Via/Makaze/Beru/Fable/EvanManManMan.  

Thinking about it, Snike makes way more sense as an ITP over mafia to me.  If only he'd flip that and not town...

[Athena_57]

3 minutes ago, athena_57 said:

Also, I realized I forgot to give my take on the empower/Kaoz thing. I agree either Walrein is lying about the modmistake or the empowered person killed Kaoz. I also agree the most likely empower target was someone he jailed. Alette, Baldrick, Omega and Snoyke had claimed to not have night actions. I now it wasn't me. I don't think Sully had either a powerful role or was likely to be killed. Kaoz was scumreading LG.
This leaves Fable, Kill, Makaze, Refa, Via and Walrein. I am certain enough in Fable and Via being neither mafia nor ITP to scrap them off this list. Assuming Walrein didn't lie about the modmistake (which we're assuming in this scenario), he can't be the killer either.

Between Kill, Makaze and Refa I'd lynch Makaze > Kill >>>>> Refa (Pretty sure he's town, just not 100%, more like 95%).

Wait actually Kaoz jailing Makaze makes no sense either after the Arc flip, right?

[EvanManManMan]

11 hours ago, Refa said:

I wrote a quote wall on his prior slot.

That quote wall has no actual evidence. The most damning thing in the entire wall is an unexplained vote on Mack, but that can come from both alignments.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, athena_57 said:

Noticed this whilst rereading, missed it the first time around. You're right, I wasn't townreading you consistently, I phrased it a bit awkwardly, I was referring back to mid day 1 to mid day 3, which is where I townread you iirc. So when I said it's hard to leave my townread behind I was referring to that.

I'm not sure I agree on the obvtown part, but you're right they can't be ITP. In any case, I agree they're not the lynch today.

Rereading Makaze made me more confused tbh. What I noticed was that whilst reading his post I was more getting into the flow of his thought process than actually analyzing the intent behind it, which I guess is a good thing? @Refa Could you try to explain what makes Makaze town for you or is it just the same feeling I have where his cases feel genuine despite being bad? I personally am torn between good gut vibes and bad actual behavior here.

Also, I realized I forgot to give my take on the empower/Kaoz thing. I agree either Walrein is lying about the modmistake or the empowered person killed Kaoz. I also agree the most likely empower target was someone he jailed. Alette, Baldrick, Omega and Snoyke had claimed to not have night actions. I now it wasn't me. I don't think Sully had either a powerful role or was likely to be killed. Kaoz was scumreading LG.
This leaves Fable, Kill, Makaze, Refa, Via and Walrein. I am certain enough in Fable and Via being neither mafia nor ITP to scrap them off this list. Assuming Walrein didn't lie about the modmistake (which we're assuming in this scenario), he can't be the killer either.

Between Kill, Makaze and Refa I'd lynch Makaze > Kill >>>>> Refa (Pretty sure he's town, just not 100%, more like 95%).

I need some input from people on this though as I'm still torn on Makaze.

I'm confused, if you already left behind your townread on Day 4 why is it hard to leave it behind now?

WRT Sully, it's more...something I got from playing P5 mafia w/him, where he has the exact same tells, thought process, and reactions to being cased.  Even disregarding meta, just the whole way he dealt with being suspected felt very honest and sincere to me.  I just can't see that slot being scum.

Makaze OTOH...I can really empathize with you/Omega/Via when you say that he's been wrong so many times that it's starting to have scum intent.  I felt the same way yesterday until I took a closer look at his content.  I think his alignment will become super obvious (and by his alignment, I mean his UPRIGHT alignment ey ey, it was a great joke fuck you) in time.

I don't remember Kaoz townreading Makaze.

1 minute ago, EvanManManMan said:

That quote wall has no actual evidence. The most damning thing in the entire wall is an unexplained vote on Mack, but that can come from both alignments.

It did lol.

[EvanManManMan]

9 hours ago, Killthestory said:

evan feels like he tmi'd on me regardless of this. he pulled up an old meta game and came in later to go "why is kill a wagon" but never actually progressed the read or showed any real interest in pushing me as town. their play isn't out of their villa range anyway, but i thought their tone was super consistent until that. im gonna reread the slot. 

The old meta game was because Omega asked for it. I showed apparently little interest at the time because I went to sleep. You can't really analyze that because it's my personal needs.

[SB.]

Day 4.26 - Votals
Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy (7): Alette, EvanManManMan, Makaze, Walrein, Killthestory, Baldrick (L-2!)
Killthestory (2): Refa, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
Makaze (2): Omega., Fable
Omega (2): Via, Beru

Not Voting: athena_57

You have ~8.25 hours left in the day. With 13 alive, it takes 5 to lynch and 9 to hammer.

[EvanManManMan]

9 hours ago, Omega. said:

@Walrein @EvanManManMan

Can I get your guys' thoughts on Kill's reentrance here and what he does on the rest of the page this links to?

This is the exact spew I would expect from Kill if he was town. His play resonates to me in a way that is iconic and I recognize it well. 

Killing a networker at this point is retarded because of how useful the ability can be in terms of forcing scum slips and reinforcing town reads. For role spec if nothing else, we shouldn't lynch Kill. The argument against him is trash anyways.

[EvanManManMan]

9 hours ago, Killthestory said:

##vote Evanmanman

Where did this come from? You said you were townreading me and found one tonal inconsistency and you have stronger scum reads. I know this was moved but I want to hear the reasoning behind this vote.

[EvanManManMan]

Refa's push on Kill has very little basing as it is entirely on Kirsche's slot, and doesn't manage to incriminate them. The fact that their best way of backing up their points is "lol no" proves that their case is bullshit and shouldn't be taken more seriously than "lol no" unless Refa take it more seriously than that.

[Refa]

3 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

Refa's push on Kill has very little basing as it is entirely on Kirsche's slot, and doesn't manage to incriminate them. The fact that their best way of backing up their points is "lol no" proves that their case is bullshit and shouldn't be taken more seriously than "lol no" unless Refa take it more seriously than that.

Dude, you said the quote wall has no evidence.  You're literally not reading it.

Kirsche's slot was the one that interacted w/scum.  Okay, explain to me why Kill is town other than "he's playing to his town meta, all cases on him are bullshit lol".

[EvanManManMan]

14 minutes ago, Refa said:

Dude, you said the quote wall has no evidence.  You're literally not reading it.

Kirsche's slot was the one that interacted w/scum.  Okay, explain to me why Kill is town other than "he's playing to his town meta, all cases on him are bullshit lol".

I did read it and your wall failed to convince me in any way. I townread Kirsche as well as Kill. His posts are literally slapping your face and pointing to a big sign saying "I'm town." Kirsche should be proven town based on EoD2 wagons and reactions. 

[Makaze]

21 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

I did read it and your wall failed to convince me in any way. I townread Kirsche as well as Kill. His posts are literally slapping your face and pointing to a big sign saying "I'm town." Kirsche should be proven town based on EoD2 wagons and reactions. 

Depends. There are multiple ways to interpret the way scum reacted there. I had the same idea -- first cleared him, then thought "hey wait, scum went for eclipse instead of kirsche counter wagon". It was weird and I tinfoiled.

This is just that again, with the added reason of Walrein's claim.

But I don't think Kill can be Mafia and play this way.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Refa, if Kill flips V, where are you at? If you're just confused and don't really know, then say that.

Isn't pretty much everyone we were going to lynch at some point like Evan, Walrein, probably someone else being read V solely for their claim at this point? I doubt the game is that easy; otherwise, just massclaim for an insta win. I'm not saying to actually do that, just making a point.

I've caught a sickness. I don't know how much I'll be doing today; I've got some things to take care of then need to sleep.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Refa, saw your questions, will try to get to it before deadline.

[Makaze]

Goddammit it just ate my post again

3 hours ago, Refa said:

Did you get anything out of it??

If there are two scum, then the answer's easy.  Scum's on the Arcanite wagon.  If there's only one scum left, I'd look into people who didn't seem like they cared what wagon they were on.  I mean, I know you wanted to lynch both, but something more apathetic.  I'd look into Snike/Athena/Kill for that.  Also shoutouts to Lord Gaius avoiding the lynch even though he wasn't even around to vote his counterwagon.

@Killthestory Firstly, I mentioned that I didn't have the time to look at all of your posts (going to do it now, after replies).  Secondly, quite frankly your posts weren't as important to me.  You subbed in after all of the flipped scum got lynched/killed and didn't interact w/any of them.  I cased you just now because all of my other scumreads died out and I needed to reread people.  

I had an entire paragraph deconstructing your points but you're literally taking every single thing I do and saying "well, this could be scum".  @Omega. I'm pretty sure I could dayvig scum at this point and he'd still find a way to say that it's scummy ("Damn, ITP!Refa is trying to win those town points").  Like this is ridiculous, I'm legitimately getting frustrated here.  Please explain to me why this slot is obvious town after he cases me and then says "no nevermind, literally everything Refa did is scummy now because he cased me!".  That's a serious not-rhetorical question.  @Makaze You said his responses were town, you can answer this too.  He did a similar thing to Snike despite Snike only voting Kill because me/Makaze convinced him.  But yeah, CLEARLY Snike was being super opportunistic.

@Makaze Not related to Kill but what's your read on Evan?  If Walrein is scum, I'll be super salty because I claimed to him a day ago (it affected my reads on some people and I wanted SOMEONE'S input and was like "well, this all checks out and his role is obvious town).

 

@Refa I think he is just reacting emotionally. His behavior after he calmed down reads very strongly of someone who is actually thinking to me. More than that, he actually listened and took in what I was saying. I can quote specifics, give me a sec. Firstly he progresses on Omega, in a way that I feel actually is organic (see how you read Omega before and after his defenses).

On 4/22/2018 at 2:53 PM, Killthestory said:

yah it was hilaruous, but why shouldnt i believe you cant make that post as a wolf? like i said, i think ur wolfgame is pretty strong bud, and ur recents are lookin worse and worse. talk to me about your reads? where u sitting? whats ur preferred go to lynch? rn all ur doing is being hyper reactive and defense, and thats defo not prototypical yolo.

@Makaze generally i dislike how yolo is taking all the pressure. it wasnt apparent until ppl started locking votes on him, but hes just getting super reactive and defense and dropped any pretense of gamesolving. i get his point that this is a new forum, but ive pressured and tunneled him in the past. when hes villa, nothing slows him down, and he always constantly searches for wolves in the face of adversity. here? not so much.

 

On 4/23/2018 at 12:09 AM, Killthestory said:

stop trying to fucking manipulate me dude. i'm gonna power lynch you if you keep trying this shit. yes, i can read you, and yes, i can understand you being town probably more than anyone here. what i don't understand is why you're making posts directed with threatening messages towards me while also trying to somehow get me to defend you?

and what's this with makaze? why should him being wrong effect my read on him? he's been read all game, but it's not until he's wrong about you that he somehow is wolf? wtf yolo 

 

11 hours ago, Killthestory said:

i think that's a scummy quote regardless because scum have trouble getting into the game and pressuring people they know are town, and they think are obvious town. 

omega doesn't read scum, i think. i wanted to scumread him because of the massive amounts of ate mainly at me, but i think he does that as a villager, too. i'm not sure. he's not a wolf AT ALL. for sure. itp would make sense, but i feel like he'd be a lot more passive when being pressured? idk if it makes sense, but yolo doesn't like ate, i think he used it here because he genuinely thought he was a clear townie (which is why he mentioned princess bride because i was getting pushed there when i felt i was a clear townie, or i guess here, too) and it would make sense that he'd ate. if he was a third party, of course he'd understand getting scumread and wouldn't go hard up the ass to just avoid it. that doesn't make sense by what i know from yolo. that's why i'm looking in other places. 

you think the last scum are going to lay themselves out for us while they cook up a nice tan? lmao

the last line of this reads pretty genuine to me

11 hours ago, Killthestory said:

he's never entertained the notion of interacting with me if he was pushing me another phase, and he never has come as hard down on me as this one where he could just as easily made the same case against me yesterday.

this is a genuine thought he is having, i don't think he's making it up. i can follow his thought process

11 hours ago, Killthestory said:

that's so ridiculous i can't help but laugh LOL 

he does a 180 after being told what Omega did and laughs about it, also seems natural

10 hours ago, Killthestory said:

it feels like plenty of people who were scumreading me have interacted with me except for him. thats like wolfy af. how can you not see that but push makaze?

and it didnt even make a dent in the gamestate. that thing dropped once the momentum was lost on the clear, and he switched it over to what you identify me as a mislynch.

also good argument re:refa, i think he is seriously scumreading you, and his reasons are based on lack of actually reading you before now

On Evan: There are multiple things that make me read him town, but most importantly, the way he is being skeptical, questioning people, and had instantaneous and logical choices for his vigs if he bets correctly strongly makes me believe he is playing from a town mindset. Quotes from him:

On 4/23/2018 at 10:10 AM, EvanManManMan said:

Wait Walrein claiked his action failed night 1. Didn't a scum compulsive roleblocker flip? That would clear Walrein if he truly was roleblocked

Also Walrein, you are motivating myself or Alette tonight to get extra kill power. Motivating anybody else won't benefit as most of the PRs left have no beneficial action from an extra charge.

Evan thought this up on his own and suggested logical steps for pro-town uses of his role.

On 4/23/2018 at 10:20 AM, EvanManManMan said:

If you have suspicions that I'm mafia just give it to Alette. It shouldn't matter too much.

There would be nothing he could do about this and it reads genuine to me.

On 4/23/2018 at 10:34 AM, EvanManManMan said:

These reads should honestly clear Athena and Kill. Shinori, in this scenario, wouldn't bus a partner. The fact that both are co networkers is pinging me some way but I can't put my finger on it. It's probably coincidental though. They gave very little info as to why Kirsche was scum. They just said "his day play is bad." That doesn't ping me as a bus, and it was probably more of a bandwagon read because Kirsche was being scum read by many. Athena would not get pushed by Shinori in this scenario so I'm confident they are town as well.

Their ITP speculation on Refa is just bad and is just shade. They simply stated "I think Refa is ITP" but gave no reasoning whyand said they specifically wouldn't try to lynch them.

Their Walrein read is interesting though. They tone read him as town day one but retracted that and called them scum for low activity in day 2. It reminds me of Makaze's flip now. The resemblence is odd and is giving me strange vibes. It makes me trust Makaze less. Walrein is probably town from these points, ignoring role spec.

Evan came up with his own interpretations based on the reads, and specifically pointed out how bullshit Shinori's Refa as ITP was. @EvanManManMan Have you changed your mind since this quote?

Evan's progression with my Walrein case reads genuine to me because he actually pauses and considers when new information is presented. But, he doesn't just change his mind. He acts like he's genuinely got opinions that can be swayed, but just aren't.

22 hours ago, EvanManManMan said:

Pocketing somebody doesn't require high attention to detail. It just requires pandering to your audience. If giving him free towncred is what panders to him then he will do it. I also can't take your defense of "That's not what I would do to pocket him" seriously. Saying you wouldn't do something means nothing. It means absolutely nothing. Why? Because you can simply ignore that statement and do the opposite. This site has better players than I am used to but the one criticism I have is how everybody uses self meta and treats meta like fact. Like no, that's not how it works and mafia is way more complex than that.

First he goes at me and argues that I was trying to pocket Walrein by just townreading him out of nowhere.

22 hours ago, EvanManManMan said:

If that's the context you failed to give any of that in your post and I would like it rewritten so i can understand what you are saying

First he thinks I'm being scummy with my case on him, then I lay out my reasoning with a narrative based on how Shinori treated him. He wasn't getting it with just quotes, but when I explain my process, he asks for more, and calms down on scumreading me.

22 hours ago, EvanManManMan said:

Mellow players who are lazy and haven't read up would do that, and that is exactly how I perceive Walrein right now. A single read for small reasons is easy to overlook, especially if little emphasis is put on it, which your read follows.

I can't download the program you linked because I'm on mobile. It's not my fault I don't understand the point you are conveying anyways so it's your job to make it clear to me.

Middle post at someone else. Looks good progression wise IMO.

21 hours ago, EvanManManMan said:

Looking at it with the context it just seems as if you are blowing things our of proportion tbh. I kinda get where you draw your conclusion from but I don't agree. I think that you are taling Shinori's posts as more then they are. He never really shaded Walrein and his denial of mentioning them was something that could easily just be human error. I really thinm that you are stretching the truth here.

Final response to my full argument. He has accepted that I believe what I'm saying and I have a reason for it, he's just not convinced it means as much as I think.

This change in opinion is town IMO. Evan does not know Walrein's alignment, or mine.

17 hours ago, EvanManManMan said:

Btw nobody speculate about my actions.

I know what to do.

 

16 hours ago, EvanManManMan said:

I'm not dying tonight unless scum decides that removing a high PoE suspect is somehow a good idea 

 

16 hours ago, EvanManManMan said:

I'm just gonna say I'm aware of what I am doing.

Him trying for this FPS makes no sense as Mafia in that it is unnecessary and I strongly believe he is trying to do something. Not sure what it is, but I see more town reasons than Mafia.

[Percivalé]

>>>iii.aivotem snike smike.