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We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER


Iris
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1 minute ago, BBM said:

it's honestly impressive how many words eclipse managed to write to come to a null conclusion on both junko and kirsche

I know, I'm impressed, too.

So, are you going to talk about my "why", or just make a snarky comment?  Because if you're casing me, I expect the latter.

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ehhh I think I'll probably keep shinori in the leaning town pile. I think his d1 was pretty good and i thought he had some pretty good points on bartozio early on and nightmare later. i think his start to d2 was kind of weak because he didn't really talk much about his reads but he clarified them later and they seem reasonable. i don't quite like his auto "scumread everyone finding bibbon suspicious" but that's relatively minor.

@Snike- honestly I forgot about eclipse's rvs case; i kinda skipped over rvs when rereading her (and everyone else's) posts. i agree that it doesn't really fit the pattern of the rest of her play but I think coming up with those kinds of rvs scum intent cases is a lot easier than doing it later in the game, because later on as scum you have to start actively ignoring townie things that people are doing. so I don't give the rvs stuff as much importance.

20 minutes ago, eclipse said:

I know, I'm impressed, too.

So, are you going to talk about my "why", or just make a snarky comment?  Because if you're casing me, I expect the latter.

my big mafia-related takeaway was that I didn't like it because it seemed like you came up with plenty of good reasons to find junko suspicious (non-evolving reads, misrep on kirsche, tunneling), and yet still ended up at a null read on him. it feels like you're pushing the wagon while trying not to tie yourself to it. just not sure if i'm confirmation biasing because although it's scummy it doesn't quite fit the type of scummy you've been so far.

my big non-mafia-related takeaway was that you got a migraine from a stomach ache and that sounds like a bad time.

interested to see what your read on omega is. i feel like your reads post before you started the big kirsche/junko reread was less a reads post and more of a "this is what I remember about these people" post. you said that athena "was" the scummiest person. what's your current read on him?

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to elaborate a bit, it feels with junko that the main thing you're using to balance out the suspicious things junko did is that he's explained himself better than kirsche. i don't really see that as the case at all so it feels really weak.

actually, thinking you two might be buddies now, as opposed to what I said in the last post about you pushing for a mislynch without tying yourself to the wagon. that makes more sense, although i'm not putting a ton of stock into that reading of it without a scum flip from one of you

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anyways i'm off for the night, I should be around tomorrow morning for a little while but unfortunately i won't be here for phase end, or if i am it'll be with less than 30 minutes left

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I might as well read Omega as the last thing for the night.

7 hours ago, Omega. said:

This is dumb. Every game I play here, I push someone, people come out of the woodwork with meta defenses that I have no way of having, then call me scum for it instead of actually engaging with me and trying to get me to understand, or even making the simplest effort to understand my own thought process behind why I'm making the push I'm making.

Welp.  I'm about to yell at you, not because you don't know meta, but because I think your thought process is faulty.

And that self-deprecating tone is the worst thing I have against you, because it's so out-of-place from the rest of your posts.

16 hours ago, Omega. said:

I'm villa, baby!

Do we have a vig?

Why on earth did you guys not lynch between Zkirsche/Junko yesterday? There's definitely scum between them.

Why are you guys townreading eclipse and Walrein?

Why are people voting/suspecting confirmed villager Marth?

Lol @ this village. The foolishness stops today. We kill Junko, and if he flips town kill kirsche next. If he flips villa, I think maybe JB is a good shot. I don't like Shinori either, nor Weapons. Shinori, please talk to me more about Nightmare. Your guys' interaction was interesting.

There's probably a wolf or 2 who is deep. eclipse and Walrein are both voting Marth who was obviously a villager, so perhaps it's between them.

I really need people who are more familiar with kirsche/Junko to talk to me about how they're acting in this game. Lynching between them today and vigging the other if we hit villa would be a homerun play. Apparently we have only until tomorrow to make the play; I'm going to be in and out and checking on stuff.

The way Sully claimed today likely comes from villa. Setsuna made a post earlier that I thought was villagery as well.

Apparently my vote is on JB. He was was wolfy from what I remember reading along. Can someone link a case? Also, hello Refa. Is there anything important I should know? Who's likelier wolf between Junko/kirsche?

Because Marth isn't a confirmed anything to me.  I can't even test his role (and if I had some cute throw-away role like messenger, I totally would).

By my logic, I'm confirmed town, and Makaze shouldn't exist because his slot should've been vig'd on N1.  But that doesn't help anyone, because no one else can see my role PM, and there was only one kill on N1.

16 hours ago, Omega. said:

The kirsche/Junko interaction pinged me hard. Reminds me of Arcanite/Prims 2 games ago and Marth/Boron in the last game. I would be shocked if both were villa here.

With eclipse, she seems to just be picking at people for weak play. I haven't seen her push anyone for things that might actually be scummy. Is she usually like this? Serious question, I don't get the townreads.

Gimme a bit. I'm going to pull up some things.

It's two things.  First, I get on people's cases for being bad at things.  Then, I scream at everyone who inevitably votes me for this.  Except there's not enough time for the latter.

15 hours ago, Omega. said:

Whoa there cowboy.

I just replaced in. I was reading along and was pretty sure Marth was villa. Now, I KNOW he's innocent and because of that, I'm pretty sure he/I am on the mislynch list. I really do not get why people who have played with Marth before thought he was wolfy here. I misread him the last game we played but after I understood his playstyle better, he was an easy read for me here. So, I think at least 1 wolf has pushed the slot and I'm surprised anyone wants to lynch him over like 1 of kirsche/Junk, JB, athena, etc.

Because I'm NOT you.  Your job is to explain yourself to the point that I can understand you.

15 hours ago, Omega. said:

Sully also claimed a track on kirsche in his first post, didn't he?

I was reading that as likelier villager as well. He gains almost nothing from doing that as a wolf. I also found his thought processes reasonable upon his entrance in the game.

I echo the sentiments being expressed earlier that Weapons' was overdoing his trolling shtick btw. That said, I really have enjoyed his trolling here. I also think there's a wolf or 2 between him/JB.

Shinori, your push on Nightmare interested me because I believe you were the first to pick at him in the game if I remember correctly. It looked like the kind of push I would make as wolf, or maybe you're a villager who's picked up on a wolf that other people haven't. Basically, the fact that you singled him out at a point in the game where no one was really paying him much mind was really interesting to me and I wanted to know more about it.

I mean, we agree on Sully (right down to the logic), and while I think Shinori picking on Nightmare at that point in the game was null, it's a good point.  Doesn't necessarily mean we're the same alignment - just that we came to the same conclusions.

14 hours ago, Omega. said:

Another quick hit: The way Refa bounced and expressed doubt between Junko/kirsche yesterday aligned with my thought process pretty hard. He's a harder read but I'm slightly leaning villager on him ATM.

Weapons, I was pretty confident on Marth/Boron holding a wolf last game but perhaps my posts didn't express it as strongly as I thought. That game was difficult due to all the village infighting which got me distracted, but I'm feeling focused here and better about Junko/kirsche holding a scum. The odds that these two have fought to the death for two dayphases in a row with both of them being villagers is extremely low. It's my hardest ping thus far, just a matter of pinpointing.

Actually. . .I can see it.  And for that, I need to hack out the meta.

I remember kirsche for his tunneling.  In the past, it was over multiple day phases.  He also did this regardless of alignment.  This is why I'm not too bothered with the fact that kirsche's case hasn't moved.

Junko is known for being passive.  Weapons mentioned that his announcement is in tiny-text because of that.

So when you combine a passive player with someone who sits on their reads, the result is the debacle you're talking about.  Meta's heavily used to color my reads on the two of them.

13 hours ago, Omega. said:

Do people think Makaze is villa btw?

I am null on him but I don't think I'd lynch him today. If someone has a strong V read on him, I suggest you look back when zeus was getting dogpiled. A wolf or 2 would have been going on him because he was about as easy pickings as it gets. I thought it was weird how much effort was put into questioning him.

I'm glad someone agrees with me that Shinori's posts have felt like going through the motions. I also rescind my light V read on Satsuma/Snike. BBM, truth be told I've been skimming his posts hard but I know he's been tiptoeing around the kirsche/Junko conflict which I found strange. I like Refa's direction though; this game needs a good kick in the butt.

@Kaoz

In SB's Alice in Brexitland Mafia, Prims and Arcanite crossvoted/suspected each other early in the game. I got scumvibes and suspected that there was a scum between them, and a lot of my play revolved around that. Same with the last game where Boron/Marth did the same, though I later got distracted by a lot of townies fighting each other myself included.  

Basically what I'm trying to tell you is that I have a propensity to pick up on early game conflicts and strongly read them as scum vs. town.

Makaze's unfortunate enough to sub into the slot I wanted gone.  As I decided that commenting on things that aren't me was more important than self-defense, I haven't read him in detail.

12 minutes ago, BBM said:

my big mafia-related takeaway was that I didn't like it because it seemed like you came up with plenty of good reasons to find junko suspicious (non-evolving reads, misrep on kirsche, tunneling), and yet still ended up at a null read on him. it feels like you're pushing the wagon while trying not to tie yourself to it. just not sure if i'm confirmation biasing because although it's scummy it doesn't quite fit the type of scummy you've been so far.

my big non-mafia-related takeaway was that you got a migraine from a stomach ache and that sounds like a bad time.

interested to see what your read on omega is. i feel like your reads post before you started the big kirsche/junko reread was less a reads post and more of a "this is what I remember about these people" post. you said that athena "was" the scummiest person. what's your current read on him?

Read above for my thoughts on Omega (which I'll sum up after this).

The issue I have with your conclusion is that everything you mentioned can also come from apathy/being overwhelmed with a lot of new pages, which is null (I'm being apathetic because of RL things).  Junko's tone is also throwing me for a loop, because he manages to keep it really even despite everything.  I'm honestly not sure what to make of him, hence the null read.

---

@Refa Snike stuff: The fact that he's been sitting on Athena this long is a point in his favor.  After the general disinterest shown by several people, it would be easier to drop him as a read and focus elsewhere, yet he hasn't.  The paranoia's odd (Nightmare's supposed slip being one), but I don't think it's enough to warrant a case.  I've been mostly happy with Satsuma's stuff, too, and they're the same slot.

---

I don't agree with Omega's approach, because it relies on the assumption that the rest of the game is supposed to know that he's town.  However, his content has been far better than Marth's, so I'm not inclined to lynch this slot today.

This is my last post of the phase, because I'm at work when the phase ends.  There's a lot I missed, and I'll deal with that later.

Omega had a good point regarding the kirsche/Junko thing - getting rid of one means that the game will move on, and I get a better read on these two.  So even if my heart isn't in this. . .

##Vote: Junko

Might as well flip that coin and see where it lands.  It'll give people casing me something to talk about.  And maybe, just maybe, we'll avoid the end-of-D1-clusterfuck.  But if I had it my way, I'd have another 48 hours to read everything, so I could name a scum team.

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Day 2.Almost to the end
Junko (6): Omega., Refa, athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse
athena_57 (2): Shinori, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
Mackc2 (2): Jaybee, Zkirsche
Weapons (2): BBM, Alette
eclipse (1): Makaze
Jaybee (1): Via
Omega (1): Walrein
Shinori (1): Weapons
Zkirsche (1): Junko

Not Voting: Kaoz, Lord Gaius, Fable, SullyMcGully

You have ~11.5 hours left in the day.  With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.

Edited by Iris
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I mean........after mulling it over I suppose I can concede on junko. I really just want to see a flip.

I feel bad about weapons because I feel like the frustration was genuine and not on an ate level but more just like I hope he's okay I'm kinda worried about him

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Something has happened!

It's pretty unfortunate that you had to leave your Weapons at home, but if you get a pretty cool robot, it's worth the trade, right?

Arcanite has subbed in for WeaponsofMassConstruction.

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11 minutes ago, Iris said:

It's pretty unfortunate that you had to leave your Weapons at home, but if you get a pretty cool robot, it's worth the trade, right?

That's what I'm talking about!

 

 

Now I have to re-read 59 pages for scum reads too ~ This'll be fun

Anyway I'll make a more in-depth post/content soon enough
(Also I'm a robot so say they/them or it please)

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51 minutes ago, Omega. said:

Via, what do you think of eclipse?

still trying to decide! earlier D2 I questioned the quality of her play; her response to me didn't feel like scum. I think that after more flips I'll get a better feel for her though. she used to be my strongest townread, but her content earlier today (esp in regards to what she said about my reaction to weapons' fakeclaim) made me ?????????????? and it reminded me of last game in which a pretty good player who was scum said something similar about me ("i'm wary of you") without a conclusion to it and it made me :thinkingemoji: but I've been reading her latest content and although she at first was hesitant on junko it didn't bother me that much.

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again she's going to be one of those cases I need more ingame information to know how I feel about her. she isn't my strongest townread anymore like she used to be but I've been back and forth on her.

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@Refa Quoting that spoiler post isn't going to work, but this is what you said:

Spoiler

Athena's early D1 replies to me show that he's thinking about the game in a way that would be hard to fake as scum.  I like his first voteswap off of Satsuma when he realized he couldn't get anything more out of the slot, very protown move.  Also IMO his revote on Satsuma reads as a natural progression (this guy is still bothering me the most even after I stepped off) to me.  Why did you approve on the case on Bartozio early on (here), but not see any merit in joining?  Why was there no merit?  Also I feel like here, he'd have to have serious balls as scum to describe his play in this game and be like "that's my play as scum".

You should target me again IMO.  I want OC w/BBM/Bibbon/Omega/Sully/Via in particular.

The reason I didn't see any merit in joining is that he hadn't posted in a while and he already had a number of pressure voted on him (3 I think?), me adding a fourth doesn't really add any meaningful pressure.

I'd consider targeting you if you didn't keep asking for a jailor... Or am I mistaken in that a jailor stops me from connecting you?

10 hours ago, Snike said:

This would also explain the improvement of the quality of posts by athena;

compare this (page 24)

 

to this (page 42)

They don't strike me as a natural evolution of a player's posting style within 72 hours or so.

Are you seriously suggesting I let someone else write a post for me? Quite frankly, I feel insulted you don't believe I am capable of writing a good post. Look at the tone, look at the vocabulary, that second post matches my other posts way more than it matches anyone else here, especially Refa, who writes a lot more casual. If you really want, I can browse my documents for some reports I've written in English and you'll see the same style. The difference between these two posts merely rests on structure. Now, the first post was made 3 hours before phase end as a real-time response whilst I was on the brink of being lynched. The second post was a post I had some time to chew on, meaning I took my time to think about how I could best phrase my case. I was also a lot more certain of my reads in the second post, which makes me more determined and thus structured. I wouldn't describe the change as evolution in my posting style, but rather as me falling back on my normal posting style after the dust has settled a bit.

 

8 hours ago, Snike said:

But if you're aware this isn't satsuma's first game, what do you think about the delayed role claim?

To be honest? I'm not sure, but after my initial surprise/concerns I don't hate it as much anymore. On the one hand, I'd expect someone with a bit of experience to see the merit in claiming such a blatantly anti-town (note:not scummy, just negative utility) ability as it can only assist town to claim it. On the other hand, if they learned to play somewhere where talking about your role is 'not done' than I can understand the hesitation. I think I'm okay with it.

5 hours ago, Snike said:

Jaybee: How do I put it; I don't think he's been that townie; I think the bbm case on him is good, and I think pushing the jailkeeper claim (which is basically a doc) despite the claim is suspicious; I understand the player's play's been suboptimal but DO NOT LYNCH PROTECTIVES EARLY is a motto I could live by. Especially jailkeeper because there's a chance they could block scumkill too.

And then he jumps to the other protective claim;.

but then the nightmare case is good;

But I think the weapons case is bad; I don't think 2 where he's flaming a readspost is that bad?

I scumread the slot but not as strongly as my other stuff.

 


RADicate (replacing Junko): Like the reason I'm hesitating is paranoia; Athena's on the wagon; mack's now on the wagon; Refa's on the wagon; I was previously biased against him being scum  because it was kirsche posting + I think marth's case on him was bad  and suspicious d1; I don't think there's a convincing reason (logically) not to lynch him today from what is out in thread because the flip would be huge associations-wise.

 

On the JB stuff: Mostly agree with what you're saying, BBM's case is the bulk of the case on him of course, but how do you feel about the stuff I've said on him?

On Junko: You say you're townreading Kirsche and appear to be scumreading Junko, except for the fact that your other scumreads are on that wagon. You also said Junko flipping town doesn't really influence your Kirsche read.

So you really think the odds of this being town vs town is so high? Because I really disagree on that. Town misrepping a fellow townie doesn't make sense and considering both of them have repeatedly accused the other of misrepping them, I'm interpreting it as the scummy one misrepping the other and trying to get away with it by accusing the other of the same thing, I just don't see this blowing up the way it did in a town vs town scenario?

I was going to stop defending myself against you, since like you said it just turned into this back and forth of opinions on whether or not my behaviour is scummy, but when you start doubting scumreads I agree with because of it, I'm going to object. I would urge you to take a step back and consider the possibility you got stuck in the mindset of scumreading me without considering any of my recent stuff or the game around it. And if you're still absolutely certain I'm scum after that, who, besides Refa whom you've mentioned, make sense as my scumbuddies? Cause if I recall correctly, the only people who've been defending me so far have been people who are amongst your townreads, so BBM, Kirsche, Fable, Bibbon.

 

Gamestance on Eclipse:

The first part of Eclipse's stuff where she gets mad at people calling her out on the "easy" cases she's been advertising where she's attacking poor play bothers me.
Then she continues by attacking Makaze for being in a slot that should be gone, which confuses me. I thought she was nullreading Zeus as well, but wanted to get rid of him for not producing, which is fine. But now Makaze is producing, so I don't see why she still wants the slot gone? I'd appreciate some clarification here, @eclipse.

Then she spends some time talking about Junk/Kirsche without really coming to a conclusion, but I personally don't mind this, in fact I quite like it as I'd expect scum to have a stronger opinion on this conflict.

TL;DR Not sure about this slot, I'm thinking null, maybe slightly town?

 

My voting priority:

It doesn't change much. I still have Junk > JB > Mack as biggest scumreads, but agree Mack's role makes him a bad lynch. Junk is way more valuable associative-read wise than both of them and I'm also more confident of him flipping scum. My vote stays on him and is in fact more solidified than before.
Junk being forced to sub back in sucks for him, and having missed so much defending himself is going to be hard, but I still want him lynched today.

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On 4/14/2018 at 12:29 AM, Fable said:

Bartozio (10): Jaybee, WeaponsofMassConstruction, BBM, Zkirsche, athena57, Nightmare, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Fable, Fenrir, Refa
athena_57 (4): , Shinori, eclipse, Eurykins
Magnificence Incarnate (3): Walrein, vi-astra, Bartozio
zeus_112 (1): Bibbon,
Zkirsche (1): Junk
Junk (1): Magnificence Incarnate
Shinori (1): Elieson
Bibbon (1): zeus_112

Not Voting: EĂ€rendil

Kinda where I'm at in terms of reads, one thing I'll note is walren is falling off a bit and needs to post more.

I think my goal for today is to just sort out the Bartozio wagon cuz I think it's pretty likely there's wolves  in the first 4 voters on that wagon.

Why specifically the first 4? Also, how do these reads generally stand now?

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2 minutes ago, Omega. said:

Why specifically the first 4? Also, how do these reads generally stand now?

I presume because the other votes were all consolidation votes made in the last hour or so to prevent a no lynch.

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