We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Omega. said:

I'd have to see the post, Refa. I don't remember that. I can tell you I'm inclined towards JB over Arcanite.

Also, wolves are scared of getting docblocked or they were confident BBM had a sick role. BBM's a great player, but I NEVER kill him over Refa/Via/Sully. That said, Via/Sully are outted rolewise so I guess it's in line with PR hunting.

This post.

[Iris]

Day 3.1
Jaybee (4): Omega, SullyMcGully, Via, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy

Not Voting: Everyone Else

There are ~71 hours left in the day. With 17 alive, it takes 6 to lynch and 12 to hammer.

[Mackc2]

On 17/04/2018 at 8:25 AM, Shinori said:

BBM quote 1: Felt the first post was slightly defensive, didn't see much in it outside of him responding to Kirsche and Refa.

Quote 2: Kind of empty unvote of JB.  Weird though cause he doesn't state he's townleaning on JB just that he wasn't his scummiest read anymore, this still implies he is still scum reading JB.

Quote 3: Weapons vote after saying he would reread Junko, not sure if he did; can't see his weapons case though in this quote.

Quote 4: Says junko > Kirsche, but a lot of people were doing that don't really have much to say about this post.  Feel like he's defending Athena here but I don't know context and it's hard to remember right now, pretty sur ehe defended athena a few times though and I kind of dislike that since I want Athena dead.

Quote 5: Weapons > Eclipse > Junko but I don't think he's voting Eclipse at the moment?  States some good reasons against Eclipse except for the fact that it feels like a chainsaw defense for Athena.

I'd lynch BBM.  Would rather Eclipse though > kirsche or Junko at the moment.

##Vote: Eclipse

Will consolidate towards Kirsche though if nothing else happens in the next few minutes.

This was well into the phrase while Kirsche had a majority, they easily could have shifted on the Kirsche wagon and likely gotten them lynched, the question is why didn't he why instead did he try to start an eclipse wagon? 

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

8 minutes ago, Refa said:

This post.

Why don't we throw this towards a null?

I don't mean you offense or to be dismissive towards you at all, but it's a good question I'd love to see answered by someone the village is trying to get a better bead on.

[Refa]

Also Fable read through half of your D2 posts and you're right in that you scumread him before he ever became a wagon, so fair enough on that.

4 minutes ago, Mackc2 said:

This was well into the phrase while Kirsche had a majority, they easily could have shifted on the Kirsche wagon and likely gotten them lynched, the question is why didn't he why instead did he try to start an eclipse wagon? 

Good question.  Do you think Scum!Kirsche would vote Shinori earlier in the phase instead of holding on to his bus?

##Vote: Makaze

[Mackc2]

2 minutes ago, Refa said:

Also Fable read through half of your D2 posts and you're right in that you scumread him before he ever became a wagon, so fair enough on that.

Good question.  Do you think Scum!Kirsche would vote Shinori earlier in the phase instead of holding on to his bus?

##Vote: Makaze

There are too many contradictions in play for scum!Kirsche, their main bus was Junko which I could see them doing to possibly gain towncred but then switching from that bus to bus another scum, I'd consider it a possibility but I don't think its a big enough possibility to follow with a lynch. 
also why Makaze?   

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Mackc2 said:

There are too many contradictions in play for scum!Kirsche, their main bus was Junko which I could see them doing to possibly gain towncred but then switching from that bus to bus another scum, I'd consider it a possibility but I don't think its a big enough possibility to follow with a lynch. 
also why Makaze?   

I'm confused then.  What are you hoping to get out of your questioning?  Assuming Town!ZKirsche, why do you think Shinori avoided voting him?

JB has enough votes, don't want the phase to stagnant just because everyone has settled on Scum!JB.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Refa, have you seen Weapons as a wolf? What's he like? Does he ever bus?

Fable, I've only seen Shinori's wolf game once and he hard defended/ignored his buddy getting pressure. That said, this is more recent and I believe he said he was trying a new strategy there. Yet, his "I don't like this Junko lynch" here is in line with that.

For those who have played with him more, how does Scumnori generally treat his wolfbros?

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Just now, Omega. said:

Refa, have you seen Weapons as a wolf? What's he like? Does he ever bus?

I ask because I actually do want to answer you, but this will inform my response.

[Percivalé]

shinori is not afraid to defend his buddies, especially when he thinks they're being scumread for bad reasons.

[Snike]

@Refa Theory: Weapons was being pushed at that point in time. Would that vote and then him being lynched and flipping scum give more cred to town!Shinori? The read on BBM could also align with the nightkill; since I think whoever janned bbm most likely also didn't think he would be ML'ed, ever.

Like I was null reading that slot as of last night but the ending is starting to bother me more now.

I'm guessing makaze's worsening on reread?

[Snike]

Yeah Brexitland when he rolled scum with eury he hard defended her d1 which got them kinda townread at first.

[Mackc2]

Just now, Refa said:

I'm confused then.  What are you hoping to get out of your questioning?  Assuming Town!ZKirsche, why do you think Shinori avoided voting him?

JB has enough votes, don't want the phase to stagnant just because everyone has settled on Scum!JB.

Thats why I'm confused, the only evidence to suggest Scum!Kirsche is Shinori's vote and possibly the fact that he landed on both scum (What are the chances he landed on both scum as town? Is it possible he instead did it to gain town cred if he outlived his scum buddies?), I don't think that is enough to push a lynch but at the same the only other explanation I can think of is that Shinori did not want to be caught jumping onto ZKirsche's wagon late because they where going to flip town, the problem there being that their scum buddy was the other option, or that they wanted to set up a base to try and get eclipse lynched tonight. I might read exactly what happened to that Shinori vote of Kirsche to make my decision. 

[Refa]

Just now, Omega. said:

Refa, have you seen Weapons as a wolf? What's he like? Does he ever bus?

Fable, I've only seen Shinori's wolf game once and he hard defended/ignored his buddy getting pressure. That said, this is more recent and I believe he said he was trying a new strategy there. Yet, his "I don't like this Junko lynch" here is in line with that.

For those who have played with him more, how does Scumnori generally treat his wolfbros?

I don't think so.  I played one game where he was scum, but I was scum lovers with him...

The last game I played w/Scumnori (before the one you're talking about) was Cuphead Mafia where he hard bussed one of his buddies.  However, neither the playstyle me/Via suggested really lines up with his stance on Junk, where he basically waffled on the slot and voted elsewhere.  IMO Shinori was trying to avoid a D1/D2 scum lynch this game but he wouldn't go out of his way to hard defend them.  Brexitland was a 2 man scumteam, so of course he'd hard defend there.  

2 minutes ago, Snike said:

@Refa Theory: Weapons was being pushed at that point in time. Would that vote and then him being lynched and flipping scum give more cred to town!Shinori? The read on BBM could also align with the nightkill; since I think whoever janned bbm most likely also didn't think he would be ML'ed, ever.

Like I was null reading that slot as of last night but the ending is starting to bother me more now.

I'm guessing makaze's worsening on reread?

IMO it only makes sense if Weapons was a leading/counterwagon, which I don't think he was at the time.  Also gut read but his tone when he was making that post doesn't seem like scum to me.  What do you mean by the ending?

Oh, I already mentioned that it's just Makaze's stance on Junk where he said he'd be willing to vote him but was super reluctant to vote him later on.  Again, I don't think the change in opinion itself is the problem but the lack of reasoning which gets me.  I don't really have an issue with any of Makaze's other content...

1 minute ago, Mackc2 said:

Thats why I'm confused, the only evidence to suggest Scum!Kirsche is Shinori's vote and possibly the fact that he landed on both scum (What are the chances he landed on both scum as town? Is it possible he instead did it to gain town cred if he outlived his scum buddies?), I don't think that is enough to push a lynch but at the same the only other explanation I can think of is that Shinori did not want to be caught jumping onto ZKirsche's wagon late because they where going to flip town, the problem there being that their scum buddy was the other option, or that they wanted to set up a base to try and get eclipse lynched tonight. I might read exactly what happened to that Shinori vote of Kirsche to make my decision. 

Yeah, I can relate because I'm not really sure what to make of him pushing Eclipse.  Maybe he thought an Eclipse vote would gain more support?

[Baldrick]

Whoever shot shinori, u da real MVP.

 

makaze/via/ω, can you elaborate on why you thought kirsche's tone is scummy?

refa, why did you switch back to junko?

snike, do you still think refa/athena, if so what do you make of junko's interaction with refa?

athena, I want you to explain something, see below

 

##vote: snike

tl; dr snike's athena case uses his inexperience in pushing people to frame him as not having any initiative.

for interactions, I think the timing of his move to kirsche LD2 was convenient, go into more detail when I can. Haven't looked into Shinori's interactions yet.

Using this post as my reference.

- athena being snippy about jb. athena had previously put jb on his scumlist, and was calling him out for pressuring fable over not contributing anything, then unvoting fable without contributing anything. athena did miss jb's follow-up until D2, so he should explain.

- OMGUSing on soy on page 6/7. he later acknowledges soy was also doing it, why is soy town and athena scum?

- the zeus interaction being padded. I don't see how trying to get zeus to content is scummier than snike's own zeus read, "just vig him", which is lazy.

-athena's questioning of bibbon is ignored entirely

-he finishes by saying athena has been reactive, not proactive, when the interactions above are examples of him being proactive. that they didn't yield anything is more due to his inexperience than to scum intent.

 

[Mackc2]

Wait when did Baldrick sub in?

[Fable]

Shinori ISO

-Defends Zeus and JB on page 18 but in a direct way just in a "you should be voting for people other than them" kinda way. 

-Also does a nightmare case on the same page which looks good for mack I think.

-Suggests Refa as 3p on page 40? Seems like a weird angle to take on something that's w/w. Probably looks good for Refa? 

-Pushes against Bibbon's defense of BBM which looks good for the bibbon slot if people have doubts there still. 

-He pushes a Athena a ton so Athena should be clear af 

-He's super hedgy on Walrein, says he's wolfy but manages to say he's gotten way better and defends him with Junko on page 47 in the same post.

-That Omega slot is lock clear with how Shinori gets with him on page 48.

-He pushes on Nightmare a lot too over the course of the two days. 

##Vote:Walrein

I think JB is a good lynch but obviously would be boring if I piled on there too and I think the way he talked about Walrein is a lot like how he treated Junko, wolf read him but always found a way to say he was getting better or shouldn't be lynched. That tied with how obvious V the Omega slot is and how Walrein parked on him for 2 straight says make me not like him so much anymore.  

 

-

 

 

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Baldrick said:

refa, why did you switch back to junko?

needed to get a lynch

i'd love to say it's because i had a change of heart regarding kirsche but it really was just for consolidation

[Baldrick]

cut by a lot

I have no opinion on jb yet, I will read the cases on him.

I have a waffly opinion on makaze, hopefully his answer will help me read him.

[Baldrick]

mackc2 do you seriously not remember my D1 + D2? That hurts, man.

refa okie dokie

[Snike]

Brexitland mentioned he was trying to change his scum meta which is why I brought it up;

Like that post I kinda townread, but the ending just before he subbed out was a lot of emotion (NULL) but like the only time I've seen him display something similar was a game from a few years back when he rolled scum. I haven't been able to shake off the feeling that he's been odd this game in terms of posting style + votes and part of that basis is that memory. I'll have to go look it up.

LolBaldrick. I stayed on kirsche wagon not to mess with the wagons at the end of the day and because I thought it was the safer lynch. What do people think about that vote?

I don't think refa is in any world scum; I'm doubting athena hard too.

I don't think soy was omgusing???

And like the zeus/athena is bad imo since it isn't scumhunting it's looking active while stating the obvious stuff?

I uh don't know where this is coming from.

[Snike]

Most of above before baldrick is talking about weapons and is directed to @Refa.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Spicy entrance by Baldrick and digging the directions Refa/Fable are pushing at the moment.

Refa hot take on Weapons' post is that it's decent but I dunno man, the rest of his play doesn't inspire much confidence for me and I'd have to analyze the gamestate in which he made that post. I think JB/Weapons usually holds at least 1 wolf. Not as confident as I was with Junko/kirsche but a few reasons for this:

- I vaguely remember thinking this when I entered the game yesterday.

- Both were early on the Bart lynch and Fable mentioned something about one of the first 4 voters there likely holding a wolf there with some logic I found reasonable.

- BBM cased both.

Not saying this is set in stone, but it's a thought process I'm operating on for the time being.

[Mackc2]

3 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

mackc2 do you seriously not remember my D1 + D2? That hurts, man.

You are messing with me, eclipse was definitely still in D2. 
 

Okay quick comment on the Shinori playstyle he was mentioning many times that he does not approve of a Junko vote (because he thinks others are more evulz) 

[Fable]

I think the wolf in the first 4 voters on Bart is always JB now ftr. 

I mean Arcanite needs to do stuff but random Shinori vote makes me think that's less likely.