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Wings of Fate Summoning Event (April 24 ~ May 9): Shigure, Kana (F), Hinoka (WITH DATAMINE 4/24/18)


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10 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

I've only had to use more than 150 orbs to get a focus unit like...twice. :/

You're much luckier than you think, then.

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46 minutes ago, Othin said:

You say CYL doesn't matter, and then in the next breath you say the more obscure characters don't matter. CYL is exactly what shows Reina isn't one of the more obscure characters. Are you arguing for popularity mattering, or not?

Or you know, both don't matter? Have you ever thought of that, hm?
You really should drop your fixation on CYL and popularity, considering IS has proven multiple times that that isn't their criteria. Just because Reina is within Top 200 (which is already a stretch to be called relevant) doesn't make her remotely a candidate among the sea of others.
If there is some criteria in IS' scheme it's probably "story relevance" (e.g. Shiro, Siegbert, Shigure, Kana, Leif) and even that is not reliable really.

46 minutes ago, Othin said:

"If we get another Fates banner" is quite a strange way to look at it, when we just got two Fates banners in just over four months. There will be plenty more Fates banners coming over however many more years Heroes lasts. Not necessarily anytime soon, but eventually.

Keep in mind that Fates didn't get any original character until Book II and only children units were added on the first banner which the initial roster didn't even touched upon. Heck, this batch is mostly made of children as well and Kaze is the only new Gen 1 character (who is ironically not even available).
After the potential Nohr banner the only massive gap in Fates line-up is still the children and going by your criteria they are far more likely than Reina will ever be.

Btw. Fates is already over-represented in Heroes. They have 40 Heroes + 16 Seasonals in the game. Only Elibe comes close to that with 32 + 6.

46 minutes ago, Othin said:

We've been getting like 4 new characters per month. If Heroes keeps that up for another four years, that's about 200 more new characters

I don't count Alts as new, so it's 3 additions per month (1 of which is a GHB or TT reward). Plus IS released some misc. banner with regular Alts between them like CYL or the Fallen banner. If they continue like this it shrinks down to just above 140 which is not a lot to split between 12 games with some of them still being heavily under-represented (Judgral and Tellius mostly).

Also 4 years? Are you trying to copy Nostradamus? Get real. I imagine FE18 by that point, with Beast units being a common thing and IS selling FE to potential collabs with Cipher, TMS or whatever brings in money while still missing plenty of characters from each game.

Edited by Zeratul
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1 minute ago, Anacybele said:

I don't think so. I see people get way luckier than me.

There's always somebody luckier. Not to mention usually it's the luckier people who will bother to post gacha pulls. But you're definitely on the higher end if 80 orbs seems bad to you(plus 2 5*s within that already, whether who you wanted or not is pretty nuts..) Like Othin said, 100-150 seems pretty average from what I've seen. I'll gladly trade luck with you if you want lol

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I don't get this Reina's sudden popularity. On paper she looks like she cannot carry a banner. Heck she cannot sell. Looks wise she's something that won't appeal to casuals. This salt for this character with barely any supports in-game is shocking. Maybe the noise is only from the vocal minority. If Leif got overshadowed by Reinhardt then there's no way a nobody like Reina with a scar on her be able to sell enough to justify her own banner. Fates has far better looking characters they can go for than Reina. Heck Aversa is someone that can sell at least on paper.

Edited by Arvin
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1 minute ago, Zeratul said:

Or you know, both don't matter? Have you ever thought of that, hm?
You really should drop your fixation on CYL and popularity, considering IS has proven multiple times that that isn't their criteria. Just because Reina is within Top 200 (which is already a stretch to be called relevant) doesn't make her remotely a candidate among the sea of others.
If there is some criteria in IS' scheme it's probably "story relevance" (e.g. Shiro, Siegbert, Shigure, Kana, Leif) and even that is not a reliable criteria.

Keep in mind that Fates didn't get any original character until Book II and only children units were added on the first banner which the initial roster didn't even touched upon. Heck, this batch is mostly made of children as well and Kaze is the only new Gen 1 character.
After the potential Nohr banner the only massive gap in Fates line-up is still the children and going by your criteria there are far more likely than Reina will ever be.

I don't count Alts as new, so it's 3 additions per month (1 of which is a GHB or TT reward). Plus IS released some misc. banner with regular Alts between them like CYL or the Fallen banner. If they continue like this it shrinks down to just above 140 which is not a lot to split between 12 games with some of them being heavily under-represented.

Also 4 years? Are you trying to copy Nostradamus? Get real. I imagine FE18 by that point, with Beast units being a common thing and IS selling FE to potential collabs with Zelda, Mario or whatever while still missing plenty of characters from each game.

Popularity has proven to be a good indicator of which non-main characters get added, and we've gotten the main ones. Now that there isn't so much to worry about with the earlier games (except FE4 Gen 2, I'd say), they've been circling back to the 3DS games to add characters they missed from them, since those are popular games and have a lot of popular characters.

When I said 4 new characters per month, I wasn't counting alts either. As I outlined earlier in this thread, in the first four months of 2018, we've gotten 18 new characters, which is actually a rate of 4.5 per month. And of course every month of 2017 had at least 4, because non-CYL New Heroes banners didn't have alts then.

You're right that future FE games will complicate things. So, sure, Reina isn't at all guaranteed. But she has perfectly decent odds, which is all I've been trying to say this whole time. There are plenty of characters I'll say are unlikely to ever get added (like Osian), but Reina is not one of them.

Speaking of Osian: Reina got 1,291 votes on CYL2 while Osian got 327. So from where I'm standing, this whole Reina fuss looks completely silly.

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16 minutes ago, Arvin said:

Maybe the noise is only from the vocal minority.

That happens a lot. It is usually the minority that screams the loudest. It is a good thing sometimes since otherwise the majority is just silent.

Edited by XRay
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Anyone that has played Fire Emblem Heroes ever since the beginning is mathematically extremely unlikely to have been significantly luckier or unluckier in the number of 5* pulled compared to everyone else. We all have pulled several hundreds of time. It evens out at some point.

We just all get that impression during unlucky waves and when people brag about their lucky ones

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1 hour ago, Othin said:

Popularity has proven to be a good indicator of which non-main characters get added

And yet we've got plenty of characters that somehow managed to pull over more popular picks from both CYL despite not being main characters.

1 hour ago, Othin said:

When I said 4 new characters per month, I wasn't counting alts either. As I outlined earlier in this thread, in the first four months of 2018, we've gotten 18 new characters, which is actually a rate of 4.5 per month. And of course every month of 2017 had at least 4, because non-CYL New Heroes banners didn't have alts then.

We got both TT rewards and GHBs in several months which shouldn't be taken as the norm, considering 2017 had long droughts without the latter at least. Plus we also got some months where we had 2 regular banners which is also not normal based on 2017's progress (where it was mostly 1 seasonal, 1 regular from Summer onwards).
Not saying that the future ones have to be capped at 3 but I don't consider regular banner + GHB + TT not the norm.

1 hour ago, Othin said:

But she has perfectly decent odds, which is all I've been trying to say this whole time. There are plenty of characters I'll say are unlikely to ever get added (like Osian), but Reina is not one of them.

Which is based on "Reina made it into Top 200" while Orsin suffers somewhere down below because he comes from a forgotten game.
Be it Orsin, Reina, Benny or any outlier character in any Fire Emblem they are all similarly unlikely because they don't have a big enough fanbase or relevance in their game to be considered. Anything below Top 100 is really not a good indicator of being popular, being over Top 300 is being not forgotten.
What happens if Thracia gets a remake within 4 years? Suddenly Orsin becomes more exposed and Reina starts to be irrelevant, no?

Your whole argument is based on "popularity" and "over many years" both being incredibly fickle. We don't know how long Heroes will go on or how popularity will be shaped over time. It could be that Reina will be included but at the same time the game might just shutdown before that happens. Preaching "she has good chances in the next4 years" only sounds like Nostradamus stuff (therefore worthless, basically). If people say Reina is unlikely to be included I'm pretty sure it's within a more realistic timeframe (say 1-2 years at most) where making theories about possible Heroes is feasible.

1 hour ago, Othin said:

So from where I'm standing, this whole Reina fuss looks completely silly.

I don't think you even realize that the "Reina fuss" and "Reina being an unlikely additon in the future" is not necessarily the same subject, do you? Reina for me has the same relevance as a character as Vyland. Don't know him? Then you get my point because I also find the former camp silly because Reina was unlikely all the time.

Edited by Zeratul
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1 hour ago, Alkaid said:

There's always somebody luckier. Not to mention usually it's the luckier people who will bother to post gacha pulls. But you're definitely on the higher end if 80 orbs seems bad to you(plus 2 5*s within that already, whether who you wanted or not is pretty nuts..) Like Othin said, 100-150 seems pretty average from what I've seen. I'll gladly trade luck with you if you want lol

Yeah, I suppose that's true.

But...holy mother of Heroes gods, my luck suddenly flipped like crazy. I finally got Hinoka, but that's not the best part.

She's +Atk, -HP!

But wait, that's not all.

I got a +Spd, -Res 5 star Sothe too! This was out of nowhere, holy shit. lol

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12 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

Yeah, I suppose that's true.

But...holy mother of Heroes gods, my luck suddenly flipped like crazy. I finally got Hinoka, but that's not the best part.

She's +Atk, -HP!

But wait, that's not all.

I got a +Spd, -Res 5 star Sothe too! This was out of nowhere, holy shit. lol

You sure you don't wanna trade luck with me? My 250 orb -atk Hinoka still hurts.

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16 minutes ago, Zeratul said:

And yet we've got plenty of characters that somehow managed to pull over more popular picks from both CYL despite not being main characters.

We got both TT rewards and GHBs in several months which shouldn't be taken as the norm, considering 2017 had long droughts without the latter at least. Plus we also got some months where we had 2 regular banners which is also not normal based on 2017's progress (where it was mostly 1 seasonal, 1 regular from Summer onwards).
Not saying that the future ones have to be capped at 3 but I don't consider regular banner + GHB + TT not the norm.

Which is based on "Reina made it into Top 200" while Orsin suffers somewhere down below because he comes from a forgotten game.
Be it Orsin, Reina, Benny or any outlier character in any Fire Emblem they are all similarly unlikely because they don't have a big enough fanbase or relevance in their game to be considered. Anything below Top 100 is really not a good indicator of being popular, it's rather being not forgotten.
What happens if Thracia gets a remake within 4 years? Suddenly Orsin becomes more exposed and Reina starts to be irrelevant, no?

Your whole argument is based on "popularity" and "over many years" both being incredibly fickle. We don't know how long Heroes will go on or how popularity will be shaped over time. It could be that Reina will be included but at the same time the game might just shutdown before that happens. Preaching "she has good chances in the next4 years" only sounds like Nostradamus stuff (therefore worthless, basically). If people say Reina is unlikely to be included I'm pretty sure it's within a more realistic timeframe (say 1-2 years at most) where we can at least realistically make theories how Heroes will progress.

I don't think you even realize that the "Reina fuss" and "Reina being an unlikely additon in the future" is not necessarily the same subject, do you? Reina for me has the same relevance as a character as Vyland. Don't know him? Then you get my point because I also find the former camp silly because Reina was unlikely all the time.

I don't think we're getting an FE5 remake in the next 4 years, but if we do get one while Heroes is still running, that'd be a huge boost to the odds of characters from it, yeah. That'd be pretty sweet.

I've been going with 4 years because Ice Dragon has said a few times that 5 years is the expected lifespan of a gacha game. Who knows how much that'll apply here, but it seems like a nice baseline.

I maintain that Reina has plenty decent odds of showing up at some point (where "decent" is at least, say, 20%), but I don't feel like continuing this argument. We're not going to convince each other. If you want to believe it's impossible for her to get in, go ahead.

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39 minutes ago, Alkaid said:

You sure you don't wanna trade luck with me? My 250 orb -atk Hinoka still hurts.

Nah, sorry, I don't think I'd want that. xP But that is a real bummer.

Still, I know that feeling. I blew some money and a bunch of orbs trying to get a better Ryoma than my -Spd one awhile back...only to end up with another -Spd. :/

Edited by Anacybele
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16 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

Nah, sorry, I don't think I'd want that. xP But that is a real bummer.

Still, I know that feeling. I blew some money and a bunch of orbs trying to get a better Ryoma than my -Spd one awhile back...only to end up with another -Spd. :/

I feel you there too. I had the same thing happen with Summer Corrin back on her first banner. I got a -spd one with all my F2P orbs, spent money and got 2 more -spd ones before I gave up. :( That was like the roughest banner I've had. Luckily I got to fix her with a +atk -res one off the legendary banner a month ago, so that was a huge relief.

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4 hours ago, Lord-Zero said:

Well, Surtr really did nothing remarkable as a villain so him killing Gunnthrá, wounding Xander and nearly killing Veronica was just there to reaffirm his status as the big bad as well as making the audience discard any crazy ideas of him being redeemed or having any “good” traits at all.

Oh, don't get me wrong, when you isolate them, those things are fine for the narrative, and in fact the Veronica/Xander bit is a logical progression as to where the plot needs to go. The scene with Gunnthra, however, is weak because it happens without developing Gunnthra as a character first-- they killed her too soon in the narrative, or introduced her far too late. It's not helped that Surtr himself appears out of nowhere with no explanation, which is pretty awkward when compared to the narrative of the Laegjarn chapters right before it.

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1 hour ago, Johann said:

The scene with Gunnthra, however, is weak because it happens without developing Gunnthra as a character first-- they killed her too soon in the narrative, or introduced her far too late. It's not helped that Surtr himself appears out of nowhere with no explanation, which is pretty awkward when compared to the narrative of the Laegjarn chapters right before it.

Yes. Unfortunately, Gunnthrá’s character was hardly developed before Surtr came in and BBQ’d her. Surtr himself would probably get some development or...at least having part of his backstory explained when the story moves to the moment where we have to fight him directly which should be...really soon. 

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Between Fjorm and Veronica, I'd say Surtr has enough on his list of awfulness that Gunnthra isn't likely to do much to change people's opinions of him.

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Gunnthra's fate was the least stupid part of that chapter really. A low bar, to be sure, but the other events around that were easily stupider. Even if we exclude inexplicable magical teleporting ability (because clearly invincibility isn't enough of a superpower), there's still the afterthought of Laegjarn's escape and why Fjorm was supposed to be acting as prison guard in the first place.

(I haven't played the latest chapter due to laziness since I'm not going to use the orbs until the next banner, but have read up ahead)

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Is Shigure likely to drop to 4-5* after the banner ends? I don’t know if I should keep pulling for him, but if he stays 5* only, if I don’t get him now, I probably won’t until the next time he gets a focus, since I don’t usually snipe for blue.

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17 minutes ago, Humanoid said:

Gunnthra's fate was the least stupid part of that chapter really. A low bar, to be sure, but the other events around that were easily stupider. Even if we exclude inexplicable magical teleporting ability (because clearly invincibility isn't enough of a superpower), there's still the afterthought of Laegjarn's escape and why Fjorm was supposed to be acting as prison guard in the first place.

(I haven't played the latest chapter due to laziness since I'm not going to use the orbs until the next banner, but have read up ahead)

Fjorm as prison guard was pretty bogus, yeah.

1 minute ago, ShadowAlchemist said:

Is Shigure likely to drop to 4-5* after the banner ends? I don’t know if I should keep pulling for him, but if he stays 5* only, if I don’t get him now, I probably won’t until the next time he gets a focus, since I don’t usually snipe for blue.

Seems like most people expect him to drop, but some are expecting f!Kana instead.

I'm pretty confident Shigure will be the drop, personally. Ward Fliers at 4* would make way more sense right now than Goad Dragons.

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My gut is saying Shigure will be the drop, but I hope Kana will be the one because of how few appealing green units are to +10 that aren’t locked at 5*. I’d rather use Kana over Fae any day as well, and while Shigure is impressive stat wise, I already have a dedicated lance flier in Cordelia. 

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Yeah, I reason that even if I do get Shigure, he will on average have a 33/37 offensive statline. Good to be sure, but a lot of people will already have a 38/35 or 35/38 Cordelia. I'd say that makes him more whale-bait than a general appeal unit but then again I don't actually know if he's appealing to whales either. There's also the fact that his shoulderpads are made out of coffee mugs.

Then again, I don't really see a reason for a player like myself to go for Kana over Myrrh so eh, double demotion please. ;)

One thing this banner does is make me wish new unit banners ran for three weeks with a one-week overlap period. Now that I have the one unit I wanted from it, I'd rather go back and try for a Thracia hero (I got none out of an admittedly meagre four pulls) than to go for either of the two above. Oh well, there's still a reasonable choice coming up between Ayra and new Legendary (and a small chance of a mystery banner).

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9 hours ago, Humanoid said:

Yeah, I reason that even if I do get Shigure, he will on average have a 33/37 offensive statline. Good to be sure, but a lot of people will already have a 38/35 or 35/38 Cordelia. I'd say that makes him more whale-bait than a general appeal unit but then again I don't actually know if he's appealing to whales either. There's also the fact that his shoulderpads are made out of coffee mugs.

Then again, I don't really see a reason for a player like myself to go for Kana over Myrrh so eh, double demotion please. ;)

One thing this banner does is make me wish new unit banners ran for three weeks with a one-week overlap period. Now that I have the one unit I wanted from it, I'd rather go back and try for a Thracia hero (I got none out of an admittedly meagre four pulls) than to go for either of the two above. Oh well, there's still a reasonable choice coming up between Ayra and new Legendary (and a small chance of a mystery banner).

Outside Hinoka, this banner is not that strong. Shigure is "meh" for me (the blue unit in my flying team is Summer Corrin) and I am sure he will be demoted, and Kana is a good unit but Myrhh and Grima are better choices. Well... F!Kana is the fastest green dragon, at least.

We have 2 banners until the next main banner: Legendary Hero and Countering Skills. I hope the L' Hero banner has some really good units. It will probably have PA!Shigure and at least one halloween unit. I hope for one of the Fallen Heroes to appear in this banner, one of the Brave Heroes (because every L'Hero banner had a Brave unit) and maybe Elincia (I would like to have her). The Countering Skills banner will probably be units with breaker skills, although most of the breaker skill units are in the 3-4 pool.

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On 4/26/2018 at 4:45 AM, Othin said:

Popularity has proven to be a good indicator of which non-main characters get added, and we've gotten the main ones. Now that there isn't so much to worry about with the earlier games (except FE4 Gen 2, I'd say), they've been circling back to the 3DS games to add characters they missed from them, since those are popular games and have a lot of popular characters.

When I said 4 new characters per month, I wasn't counting alts either. As I outlined earlier in this thread, in the first four months of 2018, we've gotten 18 new characters, which is actually a rate of 4.5 per month. And of course every month of 2017 had at least 4, because non-CYL New Heroes banners didn't have alts then.

You're right that future FE games will complicate things. So, sure, Reina isn't at all guaranteed. But she has perfectly decent odds, which is all I've been trying to say this whole time. There are plenty of characters I'll say are unlikely to ever get added (like Osian), but Reina is not one of them.

Speaking of Osian: Reina got 1,291 votes on CYL2 while Osian got 327. So from where I'm standing, this whole Reina fuss looks completely silly.

I think a remake is likely especially if the new FE SWITCH does well. They can just reuse the engine like Echoes and call it a day. If FE Switch bombs then that could definitely hurt the chance of a remake happening.

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