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2018/19 NFL Season (the Buffalo Bills are worse than pizza with pineapple on it)


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Pythagorean W-L is meant to be used as a predictive stat to analyze the season. The thing about close wins and losses is that as fans, we go "at least we got the W" and players feel some relief -- but the coaches don't have that relief and when making decisions and analyzing their season, they don't say "you are what your record says you are".. they said "why was this game so close? Oh, here are things we could've done. We got lucky there, let's not try it again."

The analysts also look at these kinds of things because it's not interesting at all to just say "doesn't matter; got a W." The off-season is pretty much about roster turnover, predictions, and hype and saying "well at least they got 13 wins" isn't productive to any of those things. I'm also looking in as a Ravens fan who once had a season where we were 5-9 in one score games and almost undefeated if the games ended with two minutes left. One score games are more about luck than most care to admit.

Now at this point, I'm being labeled a hater or whatever weird random thing CA Valk is making a point. The 13-3 Steelers had the point differential of a 10.5 win team (basically, there's an adjusted stat which I think normalizes it for strength of schedule?) which means they definitely had a lot of luck on their side. Just because they went 13-3 one year doesn't mean that the next year, especially since a bunch of plays happened or bounced their way. You guys point to the Jesse James catch and I point to the other 8 50/50 games they played. 

As for the AFCN, the division is historically extremely strong and we've had 2 instances of sending 3 teams from our division in the past decade, and at least 5 instances of sending exactly 2. It's rare for the AFCN to not have two teams in the playoffs in any given season since the re-alignment. Bengals have a decent coach that can take them there and the Ravens are a low key complete team, whereas the Steelers are generally always dangerous. The last two years were "the Steelers against a Ravens team that doesn't know what it wants and a Bengals team with PTSD".. but given how the Ravens and Bengals closed out their seasons there's no way they will lie back and watch the Steelers cruise again.

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38 minutes ago, Lord Raven said:

why was this game so close?

Cuz the other team was playing hard and wanted to win too?  So does this mean Tom Brady's Super Bowl wins are diminished cuz they were all by one possession?

28 minutes ago, Lord Raven said:

Now at this point, I'm being labeled a hater or whatever weird random thing CA Valk is making a point.

When did I say that?  We get it: you're a smart dude and like football.  No need to try so hard to impress us :P:

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If only I were so confident about AFCS. All 4 teams are inconsistent, and one of them is younger than my younger sister by more than a year. The only real contender in it, besides my Titans bias, is Jacksonville, who caused a major AFC upset, and almost caused another one.

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1 hour ago, Lord Raven said:

Pythagorean W-L is meant to be used as a predictive stat to analyze the season. The thing about close wins and losses is that as fans, we go "at least we got the W" and players feel some relief -- but the coaches don't have that relief and when making decisions and analyzing their season, they don't say "you are what your record says you are".. they said "why was this game so close? Oh, here are things we could've done. We got lucky there, let's not try it again."

The analysts also look at these kinds of things because it's not interesting at all to just say "doesn't matter; got a W." The off-season is pretty much about roster turnover, predictions, and hype and saying "well at least they got 13 wins" isn't productive to any of those things. I'm also looking in as a Ravens fan who once had a season where we were 5-9 in one score games and almost undefeated if the games ended with two minutes left. One score games are more about luck than most care to admit.

Now at this point, I'm being labeled a hater or whatever weird random thing CA Valk is making a point. The 13-3 Steelers had the point differential of a 10.5 win team (basically, there's an adjusted stat which I think normalizes it for strength of schedule?) which means they definitely had a lot of luck on their side. Just because they went 13-3 one year doesn't mean that the next year, especially since a bunch of plays happened or bounced their way. You guys point to the Jesse James catch and I point to the other 8 50/50 games they played. 

As for the AFCN, the division is historically extremely strong and we've had 2 instances of sending 3 teams from our division in the past decade, and at least 5 instances of sending exactly 2. It's rare for the AFCN to not have two teams in the playoffs in any given season since the re-alignment. Bengals have a decent coach that can take them there and the Ravens are a low key complete team, whereas the Steelers are generally always dangerous. The last two years were "the Steelers against a Ravens team that doesn't know what it wants and a Bengals team with PTSD".. but given how the Ravens and Bengals closed out their seasons there's no way they will lie back and watch the Steelers cruise again.

I think I see. I apologize, I'm not good at wrapping my head around stuff like that. But I do agree, just saying "doesn't matter, we got a W" is less interesting.

But yeah, the AFCN is historically very strong barring the dumb Brownies lol. I do remember those instances we had three teams in the playoffs. And Steelers/Ravens has been one of the best rivalries of all time. And a bit more recently, there's the blood that's formed between the Steelers and Bengals (what's with my city and forming all these crazy rivalries, sheesh. Penguins and Capitals are out for blood between each other in the NHL lately too, probably due to the Capitals losing to us 9 times out of 10 in playoff series and the recent injuries Penguins players have sustained against just ONE guy from the Capitals. I swear, Tom Wilson is starting to look like the Vontaze Burfict of the NHL. The Flyers and their fans also hate our guts and the feeling is mutual.).

I don't think Marvin Lewis is a good coach though. His team always seems to lack discipline (see the Steelers/Bengals bloodbaths), he lets thugs like Burfict run around, and he's always one and done in the playoffs. It's one thing to make the playoffs, but if you keep getting there and not winning at all, that's pretty pathetic. Not saying he's a BAD coach, but he's not a good one either.

Edited by Anacybele
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1 hour ago, CA Valkyrie said:

Cuz the other team was playing hard and wanted to win too?  So does this mean Tom Brady's Super Bowl wins are diminished cuz they were all by one possession?

When did I say that?  We get it: you're a smart dude and like football.  No need to try so hard to impress us :P:

You're missing my point entirely. I would advise you to re-read my posts with the intention of listening, not responding, considering I've never said anything close to that. The way the Patriots have performed in Super Bowl 49 and 51 required all sorts of good and bad luck to go their way. One example is their formations in the divisional round in 2014-2015 -- such formations were made illegal as of that off-season. Then against Seattle they we're simultaneously unlucky with the Kearse catch and lucky with the Butler int. It makes sense though, because that was one of the greatest super bowls of all time and the only 50/50 in NFL history.

There's no doubt both teams "wanted" it. But if you go into the nuts and bolts -- Butler made a pick on a play that Seattle was largely successful with in the one yard line, and it was due to extremely good execution against pretty good execution. That's lucky, out executing your opponents on a routine play that you, in particular, practiced heavily for that moment.

And in 2014 itself, do you remember that NFCCG? The one where Seattle somehow took it to overtime and won it in a hilarious series of once-in-a-blue-moon errors?

Likewise, in SB51, remember the Edelman catch? The sack on Matt Ryan on 3rd down in field goal range?

It's really insane how much luck goes into this. You can conclude that the 01 Patriots were one of the worst teams to win a super bowl in the same breath as praising them, and you can extrapolate how 2002 might go based on their errors in 2001.

I'm not sure you understand why saying "doesn't matter they won" or "doesn't matter they lost" is a simplistic and unproductive way to look at the way the season went.. a close score means it was much more of a 50/50 game that went in their favor. As it stands, the Patriots are 5-3 in one score super bowls, and they would've been 4-4 had Atlanta not given up a 25 point lead. And that's... Kind of my point tbh, especially since their strongest team ever didn't even win a title. But the 07 Patriots is one of the most dominant teams of all time, and they still lost a coin flip game despite being clearly superior to 99.999% of teams to ever step onto the field.

This is how I speak on forums these days. Don't flatter yourself.

1 hour ago, Hylian Air Force said:

If only I were so confident about AFCS. All 4 teams are inconsistent, and one of them is younger than my younger sister by more than a year. The only real contender in it, besides my Titans bias, is Jacksonville, who caused a major AFC upset, and almost caused another one.

Tbf my team and the current iteration of the Browns are younger than I am so it's not that crazy. But since 2002 the AFCN has had a track record of cannibalizing playoff spots. It's actually one of the most interesting divisions to follow sometimes because somehow 3/4 teams can pull really dumb wins out of their asses. I could point to the Ravens in 2012, Bengals in 2013, and the Steelers in 2017 as the most blatant examples but these are really crazy teams that despise each other.

(Also Ana I follow hockey now and I'm a caps fan lol, there's something about Maryland and Pennsylvania that makes them hate each other in sports)

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38 minutes ago, Lord Raven said:

(Also Ana I follow hockey now and I'm a caps fan lol, there's something about Maryland and Pennsylvania that makes them hate each other in sports)

Well geez, we're just destined to be complete sports rivals, aren't we? lol DC's technically half Maryland and half Virginia, but still close enough. Looks like your Caps will finally do it this year though. Meaning taking out my Pens. Game 3 could've gone either way though, really. So who knows what'll happen in the next few. Besides, I'm happy enough my Pens repeated as cup champs!

Also, at least the Caps fans seem more respectable than the Flyers and Preds fans. Preds fans booed us to hell in the cup final last year rather than just focusing on cheering their own team (hats off to the Sharks fans in the cup final before that one, cheering for their team even when they lost). Flyers fans kept chanting "Crosby sucks!" and shit. And one Flyer fan dude flipped off Jake Guentzel as he was celebrating a goal. What asshats. Granted, I saw a Pens fan do the same to Alex Ovechkin of the Caps, but every fanbase will have some bad apples. The Preds fans and Flyers fans just seem to have a lot more of them.

The blood aside though, I'd honestly put the Pens/Caps rivalry on the level of Steelers/Ravens in terms of how awesome it is. They're consistently evenly matched teams despite the Pens usually prevailing and play each other hard!

Edited by Anacybele
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5 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

You're missing my point entirely. I would advise you to re-read my posts with the intention of listening, not responding, considering I've never said anything close to that. The way the Patriots have performed in Super Bowl 49 and 51 required all sorts of good and bad luck to go their way. One example is their formations in the divisional round in 2014-2015 -- such formations were made illegal as of that off-season. Then against Seattle they we're simultaneously unlucky with the Kearse catch and lucky with the Butler int. It makes sense though, because that was one of the greatest super bowls of all time and the only 50/50 in NFL history.

There's no doubt both teams "wanted" it. But if you go into the nuts and bolts -- Butler made a pick on a play that Seattle was largely successful with in the one yard line, and it was due to extremely good execution against pretty good execution. That's lucky, out executing your opponents on a routine play that you, in particular, practiced heavily for that moment.

And in 2014 itself, do you remember that NFCCG? The one where Seattle somehow took it to overtime and won it in a hilarious series of once-in-a-blue-moon errors?

Likewise, in SB51, remember the Edelman catch? The sack on Matt Ryan on 3rd down in field goal range?

It's really insane how much luck goes into this. You can conclude that the 01 Patriots were one of the worst teams to win a super bowl in the same breath as praising them, and you can extrapolate how 2002 might go based on their errors in 2001.

I'm not sure you understand why saying "doesn't matter they won" or "doesn't matter they lost" is a simplistic and unproductive way to look at the way the season went.. a close score means it was much more of a 50/50 game that went in their favor. As it stands, the Patriots are 5-3 in one score super bowls, and they would've been 4-4 had Atlanta not given up a 25 point lead. And that's... Kind of my point tbh, especially since their strongest team ever didn't even win a title. But the 07 Patriots is one of the most dominant teams of all time, and they still lost a coin flip game despite being clearly superior to 99.999% of teams to ever step onto the field.

This is how I speak on forums these days. Don't flatter yourself.

Relax, man. We good. But I do find your essay responses flattering ;):

Edited by CA Valkyrie
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21 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

Not an argument. The 9-7 Bills were a 5-11 quality team. The 9-7 Ravens were a 7-9 quality team. The numbers, stats, and the play on the field say completely differently, and projecting future outcomes require detailed analysis of previous outcomes.

Finally. Someone who nailed it about the Bills. We weren't deserving of that playoff spot but it didn't matter because we ended the drought.

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5 minutes ago, Life said:

Finally. Someone who nailed it about the Bills. We weren't deserving of that playoff spot but it didn't matter because we ended the drought.

That was pretty awesome for you guys!

Especially because it happened via the Bengals embarrassing the Ravens and stripping them of a playoff spot. lol

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25 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

That was pretty awesome for you guys!

Especially because it happened via the Bengals embarrassing the Ravens and stripping them of a playoff spot. lol

ಠ_ಠ

people really underestimate how much i hate them, theyre #3 to the Patriots and Steelers and once BB/TB retire they might leapfrog the Patriots

31 minutes ago, Life said:

Finally. Someone who nailed it about the Bills. We weren't deserving of that playoff spot but it didn't matter because we ended the drought.

The Bills' playoff drought was one of the weirdest phenomenon in sports and especially the NFL. They somehow have stayed so mediocre the last 17 years that when they had a mediocre team in a bad AFC they actually had a chance and took it. That's probably one of the main flaws of the salary cap (also that it harms players moving off their rookie contracts); mediocrity has a hard time leaving the cycle.

Edited by Lord Raven
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11 minutes ago, Lord Raven said:

people really underestimate how much i hate them, theyre #3 to the Patriots and Steelers and once BB/TB retire they might leapfrog the Patriots

I'm totally with you on the Bengals and Pats hate train, I despise them too! Bengals might leapfrog the Pats for me as well when stupid Brady and Belichick go.

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I do hope that under a former Pat ourselves that we can beat them, if we even play them this year. He's well versed in BB strats, so having him against the man who coached him is indispensable for the Titans.

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Wow, we're still quite a ways from the start of the regular season but today was a day from some noteworthy headlines:

1) Matt Ryan signed a 5-year, $150M ($100M guaranteed) contract extension with the Falcons.  A contract this size was inevitable given previous deals paid to other QB's of lesser caliber: Jimmy G ($27.5M/year, 7 career starts) and Kirk Cousins ($28M/year, 0 playoff wins)

2) Steelers convert $8.26M of injured LB Ryan Shazier's salary to signing bonus, meaning he gets that money right away.  Real classy move from the Steelers organization!

3) Jason Whitten retires after a 15 year career and will join the broadcast team of Monday Night Football this upcoming season.  Kinda surprised since I felt he still had 2 to 3 good years left in him.  But smart move on his part: he leaves the game physically intact and will go into a high profile job that gives him even more exposure.  Top class player both on and off the field, and wish him nothing but the best (feels weird saying that about a Dallas Cowboy :lol:).  Future Hall of Famer for sure, and might be able to make it in the first ballot.

Edited by CA Valkyrie
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Is anyone here interested in futures betting? For the past couple of years, I’ve considered betting on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl before preseason. Though these days I’ve been more conservative about gambling.

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17 hours ago, CA Valkyrie said:

1) Matt Ryan signed a 5-year, $150M ($100M guaranteed) contract extension with the Falcons.  A contract this size was inevitable given previous deals paid to other QB's of lesser caliber: Jimmy G ($27.5M/year, 7 career starts) and Kirk Cousins ($28M/year, 0 playoff wins)

Yeah, i think Rodgers was waiting on this too. Expect like a 32m/year and like a 110m guaranteed contract from Rodgers.

Makes me sad. Flacco, Rodgers, and Ryan began in the NFL (as starters) at the same time (2008) and got their extensions at the same time always. Flacco era is really about to be over.

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Speaking of later eras, Ben says the Mason Rudolph era won't begin for us for "3-5" years. Dude, Ben, you're not playing in no 5 years. lol I can only see him playing for two, maybe three more.

I'm looking forward to see how Rudolph does for us though! Also, he SO needs to wear antlers and a red nose for the Steelers' Christmas caroling videos at Christmas time. XD

Edited by Anacybele
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19 hours ago, Anacybele said:

Speaking of later eras, Ben says the Mason Rudolph era won't begin for us for "3-5" years. Dude, Ben, you're not playing in no 5 years. lol I can only see him playing for two, maybe three more.

I'm looking forward to see how Rudolph does for us though! Also, he SO needs to wear antlers and a red nose for the Steelers' Christmas caroling videos at Christmas time. XD

He complained that it won't help them win now.

In the off-season where a backup became Super Bowl MVP.

Like yeah it's not entirely false but don't throw your FO under the bus

Edited by Lord Raven
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4 minutes ago, Lord Raven said:

He complained that it won't help them win now.

In the off-season where a backup became Super Bowl MVP.

Like yeah it's not entirely false but don't throw your FO under the bus

FO? What's that?

Oh, you mean front office? Yeah, true.

And I do get where Ben's coming from, but I still also get why we drafted a QB. Ben's contemplated retirement and who knows if he will or won't again soon.

Edited by Anacybele
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On 5/4/2018 at 7:33 PM, SMEDIA said:

Is anyone here interested in futures betting? For the past couple of years, I’ve considered betting on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl before preseason. Though these days I’ve been more conservative about gambling.

Futures? No. I only bet second halves so that I can see how the game is going.

 

Plus, I'm usually better than Vegas when it comes to setting lines, especially O/Us. Vegas plays to the sucker and that where I get to clean up.

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23 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

Yeah, i think Rodgers was waiting on this too. Expect like a 32m/year and like a 110m guaranteed contract from Rodgers.

Yeah that sounds about right. I think Rodgers wanted to see what Ryan got before starting talks for his contract. 

The era of the $30M quarterback has begun, which took roughly 10 years to get to after the first $20M QB.  Interested to see how far we are from the first $40M QB, and who will get it (he's probably still in college or possibly in high school:lol:). It'll depend on a lot of things: the market, how the game evolves over time, rule changes, next CBA negotiations, and other things I neglected to mention.

23 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

Makes me sad. Flacco, Rodgers, and Ryan began in the NFL (as starters) at the same time (2008) and got their extensions at the same time always. Flacco era is really about to be over.

IDK. Everytime I see these new record breaking deals (Ryan-2018, Flacco-2008, even A-Rod in 2000) I always ask myself "Is anyone really worth that much money?" It's more of a philosophical question than a technical one.  But to be fair I do believe Ryan and Flacco were deserving at the time they did get their contracts. 

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Against my better judgement, I'll say I'm a Vikings fan. 

It kills me year after year to see so much potential go down the drain. Last year was particularly rough. So much could have changed if the Eagles were the #2 seed and the Vikings were #1. If Cousins leading the team doesn't save them from another disaster, I'll be on another cold streak with them. 

But yeah, you can put me down for Vikings. 

Edited by Slumber
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8 hours ago, CA Valkyrie said:

IDK. Everytime I see these new record breaking deals (Ryan-2018, Flacco-2008, even A-Rod in 2000) I always ask myself "Is anyone really worth that much money?" It's more of a philosophical question than a technical one.  But to be fair I do believe Ryan and Flacco were deserving at the time they did get their contracts. 

if it were up to me all the players would get 20m/year

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8 hours ago, Lord Raven said:

if it were up to me all the players would get 20m/year

I know, right?!

Just put a hard cap on how much money a player can make annually, with the performance variable being the guaranteed money.

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