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Twitch Plays Pokemon Mafia NOC(15p)(GAME OVER TOWN WINS)


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Time to knock out more ISO reads.

SB

Gunned out the RVS ED1 with Athena case, which was already stated that I didn't really care for or agree with.

Expecting Athena to be scumhunting at that point in the game seemed highly unrealistic and oddly nit-picky.

Moves off of Athena in lieu of Randa.

This post (and the one before) kind of waffles on Refa, but ends up as a null-tell on him.

Waffles more on Refa, and almost seems to soft-defend him and to handwave him as being scum for the most part. Based around the demotivated parts, saying he probably wasn't scum unless his buddies were disconnected from the game, etc.

TL:DR: Refa is playing "too badly" to be scum defense notions.

If Refa's scum, then he should feel bad for posting like this! (Basically saying he really wouldn't do so as scum.

Super waffly read on Evan and Bart and Athena. Lists Randa > Bart > Evan as priorities.

Light convo/interactions with Refa, supporting of Randa/Evan choices for end of day, but not Refa. Continues to defend Refa with notions of, "was too blatantly bad to come from scum unless he's like... scum with Randa and some other hard inactive player but it feels too specific. "

Minimalistic casting of shade on Refa but once again non-commital/not really giving a read on his slot.  Is basically on the wall with basically every read in this post, maybe sans Athena.

Disinterest in putting Evan in priority (apparently due to BBM reading skills noted in later posts).

Backpedals on prior Evan non-priority/Ice priority and swaps them from previous posts. (AKA. Suspects Evan more and drops Ice for the most part)

Unvote and moves back to Athena.

Moves Evan above Randa. Uncertain if Evan was put above Athena though at this point?

Still uncertain as to what was garnered on the Athena read/notions here?

Have a weird vibe that timeframe of posting was used to kind of put some distance between SB and voting RAD come near the end of the day phase.

SB Re-read on Refa: Not scum with Randa, but also guilty of easy voting on the Evan wagon and plausible false casing on himself (SB)? Still not really hard scum reading though, intent or otherwise. Also keeps priority scum read on RAD slot.

Update on reads. On Refa specifically: "He's more "life" in his posts than demotivated Scum!Refa"

I think I might've missed responding to this, so covering that now @SB. I think Refa would act the way he did with Shinori as scum pulling scum gambit with each other. Mainly due to the fact that, if Refa was picked to be lynched, he told us not to bother with Shinori and that any chances of it being a mislead would be due to a TAILOR. Never really got anything wrt him flipping scum, but then again scum!Refa would never be like, 'BUT MAN IF I FLIP SCUM SHINORI SHOULD DEF BE TRUSTED THEN" or something stupid like that. 

> Either way, based on the wording of Refa's post and his reaction, Shinori seems to be offered the best interest to looking good no matter how Refa flipped, if he got lynched instead of RAD last day phase.

1. Also, you aren't wrong about me not fully buying into Shinori's claim. I told everyone since D1 that I was having really weird gut vibes on his slot, and was not sure how I felt about his slot. His ill-time reaction test did not make me feel any better about that, if you couldn't tell by now by the other massive wall post today.

2. I've already stated Refa as being scummy before, and has been in my priority since the start, but as stated again earlier, RAD was my priority/main interest for D2, especially after having wagoned Evan off the first day phase over that slot. Didn't really feel the need to be like, 'SO YOU GUYS KNOW I FELT LIKE REFA WAS SCUM, SO WHOO HOO LETS GO WITH THS SHINO GUILTY CLAIM AND CHOO CHOO OFF TO LYNCHERINO NOOOOOSE!" sort of reaction?

== Cut by drunken SB posts. My brain can't translate everything, sorry, but will get through what I can.==

I'm assuming the demotivated not fighting back would imply Refa's reaction, which basically states that Refa is moreso in a good light based on the Guilty Gambit. So alongside Shinori (the biggest gunner of Refa IMO), SB is now also opting for a more positive outlook based on "fighting back", which is something I really don't see. Unless stating BULLSHIT (Since when would scum ever be like, "Yeh ok bro you got me! Damn you so good!") and activating his ability is considered "fighting back" in a townie manner, I'm not really seeing it.

I also got prodded, as have several other people in this thread so far this game. Granted, mine was partially due to shitty work hours, but does getting prodded suddenly mean someone's demotivated? At what point does it turn into lurking/coasting scum?

Being conscripted into a game or coerced by some outside means doesn't matter. If Refa was really demotivated to the point of not wanting to play, there is the option to saying NO. That is not a reason to be inactive or perform in a demotivated way. Another option is also to ask for a sub. Also talking/interacting with someone loud/active is not a bad way to entice activity levels, and is easier to do than to hunt for quieter people for associations/interactions. A loud mouth will always be willing to interact so long as you shoot them questions, cases, etc.

Past games are past games. If his demotivation stemmed from a past game's player base not reacting/listening to him, how would he expect people to listen to him if he's not putting forth much of anything? If he doesn't feel like saying much because "no one's going to listen to me", it doesn't validate not being moreso active/proactive in a new game? **Granted, last game also had much LOUDER parties including some like Makaze/Omega thundering throughout the day phase and running a lot of what was going on, so it could've been partially affected by the players themselves. Not that any of them are in this game though.

"don’t agree with baldrick’s refa case but i’ll let refa answer him". What? I don't think Refa requires PERMISSION to answer/respond to someone's post? Or is this another side note consideration of fighting off another Refa case, in which case it's moreso you defending him again?

My reads are being refined as we speak. Going through ISO's currently, and will refine a vote thereafter. Also now reading Refa based on tone?

Describe being more "scattered" in responses and at what point is someone "making up thought processes"? Same as artificing cases/points or different?

-- Passing on the next couple of posts since they were cased on me and I already responded to them. --

My reaction was partially based on the fact that I don't fully trust Shinori's slot. Even less so, now. Refa being claimed guilty also put RAD, my top candidate yesterday, on the back burners, which I didn't like.

I don't actually know what the case status is on Bartozio atm, so I'll post thoughts later wrt this vote.

Saw this earlier, but opted to answer you via this reads post instead of spam posting small shit. @SB. So you can see the answer/response to your last post.

The way I see it, he loses less by claiming this as scum!nori than town!nori.

1. He's informing people that he can see who's targeting him. And if multiple people already hit him with varied means, then it's implying that he's more of a witness-esque passive role that is not one really necessary to mess with. Gut implies that this was also a small gambit in dissuading people from doing things like aiming RB's at him. Which, as scum, would still affect him because of NK participation? (And if it IS scum!nori, then he's one of the towniest players currently being read and one least likely to be nailed by information/interference abilities currently.)

2. Now my question is moreso, "Why would town!nori crumb this role?". IF he is town!nori, then I'm assuming he assumed that whoever dropped non-lethal (assuming as such since he didn't die that night phase?) actions were seen, to little to no effect. Maybe cop was on him, maybe doc was on him, maybe someone else? But if there were multiple people, I don't really understand why he'd bother stating this fact, as he wouldn't know whether he got scanned by a role cop, attempted to be blocked, or something else (As I'm under the general impression of watchers is that they see people, not the actions they perform, unless the Mafia wiki thing is inaccurate on that account) or from whom the actions came from? The one sole information I could garner is that maybe whoever WASN'T at his place was NOT the killer of Via, as janitor is usually an activated ability (so would require them to use the ability and do the kill in one spot)? But even then, that doesn't do a whole lot since another scum member could've been checking him out instead (just verifies that they weren't Via's killer, but could be scum nonetheless).

But the problem with this is that it would discourage scum from wanting to mess with him if/when he did crumb it, so why did he? Unless someone wants to get a random DOC claim or something else verified by him by showing up at his place (and showing up on his reads as a result), I don't actually know why town!nori would bother stating the crumb.

TL;DR read on SB Slot: Pretty bad.

He defends Refa almost excessively, and most of the reasons used as justifications just don't sound good/solid to me.

Athena reads flicker constantly in his reads (something to consider in terms of associations), and he is constantly interacting with people (including Shinori) who seem to have issues with Refa cases.

In addition, apparently he sat his vote on Athena at the end of D1. Did not fully catch that earlier, but I question that vote, as Athena lynch was not of a main interest as the day phase was winding down. This also bothers me, because you're not really helping town reach any sort of meaningful consensus by not contributing the vote to one of the ending lynches, even after you stated you would lynch Evan wagon over Randa/RAD's?

Bartozio case/vote I need to personally look into as I have not re-read into Bartozio's slot overall, but overall I'm not really impressed by SB's content/ISO. 

I sense interactions/associative reads strongly with Refa, and lesser ones with Shinori- the latter is mostly bantering about Shinori's Refa cases/notions and SB arguing against them. The ED1 banter back and forth between Shinori/SB also reads a bit as "Lets get out of RVS together and paint things for us in a townier light for #efforting out of RVS" to me, which is bothering me with their interactions.

Moving onto Refa/Bartozio (so I can get back to the SB thing on him).

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Hi.

I'm reading today rn but I haven't really been keeping up with the game. If anyone wants to summarize I'd appreciate it otherwise I'm going to have to take a bit to get a post out. What are wagons rn?

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For real though:

D1 started off with Randa getting piled on.  I had a lot of interactions with them.

D1 ended with Evilmanman lynch building fairly quickly and him getting lynched.

D2 Rad wasn't really around and got lynched but I also faked a guilty on Refa during this day.

D3 is now and the wagons are all over the place.  Some people are pushing Refa kind of weirdly(imo) based off of his reaction to my fake claim.  Bart/Eury are other wagons at the moment with some people wanting to lynch SB.

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1 minute ago, Snike said:

You're supposed to ask that in the qt genius.

No, I think you're probably town.

Why do you think I'm town assuming you haven't been keeping up with the game all that much.  What have you read that implies you think I'm town?

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Incidentally ( this is unrelated) Is this the mythical Town Athena? I really like the case even though I haven't read d2 tone-wise and it looks like he's not playing super reactive like he has in the past. It's like seeing a unicorn.

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Refa

Sheeping SB's Athena case/vote (Though he apparently doesn't fully agree/support it himself?)

Redirects several players (including myself) to look at SB's said case. Not the worst intent-wise given ED1, and assisted in at least building some sort of opinions in RVS.

Definitely claiming town doesn't make you actual town. Also being pinged by SB/Baldrick on their push against Randa without having a read on Randa yourself sounded bad. 

And so it begins, the Shinori v. Refa battle. You note points against Randa, but one post is tonally enough for you to get a town vibe off of it? (To doubt your read on Randa) Additional drabbles with SB wrt being defended by him, odd bits at Athena. Refa then ends his post with the priority of Shinori > Randa > SB.

Refa starts picking at Shinori.

More Banter in response to Shinori. The comments wrt SB feels like a mild shade of defense/validation wrt SB's case towards Shinori's points.

I'd sheep dat Evan case, Refa says (to Via).

Ends up dropping Shinori vote as this (and a few posts prior) acknowledges some points that he drops against him.

This post bothers me for a few reasons.

1. "I didn't mention this before, but everyone being okay with voting Randa is giving me second thoughts on the slot.  It's not just that one post BTW, it's his tone overall, I'm just too lazy to link some of his later posts that gave me the same vibe."

You express concerns wrt Randa wagon, even noting that multiple of his posts have been giving you more townie than scummy vibes, YET YOU CHOOSE NOT TO LINK THEM IN LIEU OF LAZINESS. This basically tells me that, "I think something's wrong (and multiple people were barking up the wrong tree), but I can't be asked to actually tell/prove you why." This is along the same lines as some of the people stating, "Randa/Evan wagons seem to be moving along without much resistance- seems suspect", but not really doing anything to STOP or FIGHT it. 

2. "Can you explain where Randa is backpedaling?  He does that as scum, so I'd feel more confident in a vote there if you linked me to that" - a question Refa asked regarding Randa.

So you ask someone ELSE to provide quotes of him being scum, but you can't bother pulling up quotes you feel made him sound TOWN to you? Being purposely selective here or giving yourself a way/means to adjust your Randa read into a scummier one?

Baaaaaaaaaaaa vote on Evan coming as a result of sheeping Via.

Going into D2, opens up with another Shinori vote/case, and a priority of Shinori > Athena > Elemina > Eury (Hey look I'm here! Wait...) He's concerned of general consensus of the Randa/RAD slot, when neither players really did anything to rectify the slot. (This makes me question if this is due to him KNOWING that RAD slot is town, which only scum would 100% have known, unless he had him cleared/confirmed in another side/role manner.) Pushes Athena as being scummy under Shinori, flip-flops on the read on me, sheeps JB's read on Elemina, and finds Shinori most scummy in the end. 

Assuming the vote swap off of Shinori onto Athena is due to Faked Guilty claim from Shinori. The rest has already been taken apart in prior posts.

This post is another reason why I don't fully buy into the FAKE GUILTY CLAIM as NOT being staged. "Oh man this was good/bad reaction to the test, etc. etc." 

> In addition, the following notion rubs me the wrong way: "Don't see this reaction test coming from Scum!You, so uh...at least it helped me out in that aspect despite stressing me the hell out." Consider the following notions:

1. If you're town, and someone claims against you to have read you as scum/guilty on you, you are the one who knows 100% that you are town. Why, then, would you become stressed out over a false guilty charge?

2. With the end result of the claim being completely fake, why then could Scum!nori not have pulled this reactionary gambit? He explicitly did it in a fashion to avoid end of the day phase from happening with everyone on you, but this also means that he would not have been liable HAD you flipped town. Nothing he said or did caused any massive shift in terms of who lived, who died, and who flipped. In fact, nothing but your claim came out of this, and him supposedly getting a better read out of your reaction. So I ask once again, @Refa, what inherit risk does this action/gambit host towards Scum!nori and why couldn't he have done it from a non-town perspective? (Especially when he had you in his interests to either convict or otherwise rattle you for information if he was suspecting you as much as he was.)

This is why I view this reaction test as something that benefited both Shinori and Refa. And why exactly it is plausible for both of them to be scum and pull this off as they have.

Why are you asking who to vote? This is basically just sheeping all over again.

Stating "I'm such obvious town" when you're not really that obvious to the rest of us.

Asked who to vote, never actually swapped LMAO. That efforting tho.

Vote on Conqueror (Someone else I need to read and see the cases about), and states OK consolidation on Bartozio due to SHEEPING Athena and SB. Baaaaaaaaaa Also, why so disinterested in the Elemina slot?

--- I'm going to breeze over Refa v Conqueror banter because I don't know the full casing behind Conqueror's ISO. I will return to it shortly once I'm done with Bart's ISO. ---

Refa sheeping SB's case (and asks for verification from SB before voting me). Baaaaaa baaaa baaaaa black sheep.

TL;dr on Refa's slot: Can you cut me a bit of profit of that wool you got there? 'Cause you must have a massive flock of sheep by this point.

Realtalk: He has not really improved much since D1 for me. I will have to look at the interactions within the Conqueror situation, but again, lacking the information currently as I'm making this post. Will be covering it later. His slot still looks bad to me.

Plenty of interactions with Shinori, and both parties (Shinori and Refa) have eventually backpedaled away from reading each other as scum as a result of the Fake Guilty reaction test. Both of you guys clearly had a strong negative on each other, which apparently evaporated upon the gambit event taking place- this seems extremely unrealistic and way too fast to be jumping overall reads without any solid REASONS (flips, scans, etc.) to validate one to the other as being scum or not. This is an important association to consider if/when either start flipping.

> Also why would you not care to vote swap/consider your vote when you dealt with the situation in D2? That makes little sense to me, and isn't a means/source of demotivation factor IMO.

Vote wrt Evan was also poorly made, as has most of his sheeping instances and cases.

Has frequent interactions with SB, and seeks opinions/justifications from SB's cases somewhat frequently before going along with them in multiple occasions. Both have picked at each other, but also defended each other on certain points, which makes for a relatively steady associative read with SB slot as well.

Despite having points in which he found Randa OK, Refa did nothing to stand up much against the cases. Being "too lazy" to post anything as counterpoints to the prominent wagon basically means you don't have the interest to defend an actual town read and put forth a stronger scum read in its place. That is something I find scummy, because you're watching someone go to the lynch that you REALLY don't think is scum but shrugging it off for your own things.

--- Moving onto Bartozio. --

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BTW Eury's town.

Would not lynch.

Eury's smart enough to know I'm not getting lynched today but still pushes me fairly hard while saying I'm connected to Refa/SB.  Also if I was a theoretical doc target last night Scum!Eury would know this and I don't think ANY scum member pushes a person that got doc saved the following night.

Probably.

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16 minutes ago, Eurykins said:

Plenty of interactions with Shinori, and both parties (Shinori and Refa) have eventually backpedaled away from reading each other as scum as a result of the Fake Guilty reaction test. Both of you guys clearly had a strong negative on each other, which apparently evaporated upon the gambit event taking place- this seems extremely unrealistic and way too fast to be jumping overall reads without any solid REASONS (flips, scans, etc.) to validate one to the other as being scum or not.

I feel you aren't looking at it from the persons perspective.

Put yourself in Refa's position.  Let's say I state I have a guilty on you.  If you are town, you know you're town and you know said guilty is false.  No; does scum do something like this and trade 1 for 1 for like zero reason? No.  Any scum play that might be similiar would be super ballsy and still wouldn't end well.  Thus why Refa dropped his read on me for the most part.

And then in my position; I've already explained this.  Yeah I still feel that Refa's D1 was pretty scummy but his reaction from my PoV was good. Scum!Refa should(optimally) either start spewing or stop talking period.  That's not quite what Refa did though so I felt better about it.

I have not wrote him as obvious town though and I've even stated this before, but he's not in my lynch pile anymore at the moment.

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Hi KTS.

@ShinoriSee I disagree with that because I think a lot of eury stuff I've read so far (and a tone shift) reminds me of Brexitland. The other thing is the rage wrt the gambit could be motivated by scum getting denied a night kill, which is something I'm keeping in mind because I think it's unlikely (if at all possible) that they no killed and you would think a roleblocker would've claimed by now if they had for an easy ML. I've only read up to like half of 30 though and I haven't looked at the ios posts, so I'm witholding judgement for right now.

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Constructing a post, but just want to respond to this.

5 minutes ago, Shinori said:

Put yourself in Refa's position.  Let's say I state I have a guilty on you.  If you are town, you know you're town and you know said guilty is false.

Now that it's out in the open, do you not think Refa might have noticed the same thing I did, and Eury did, and so know that you didn't have a guilty on him?

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7 hours ago, Conqueror said:

I made a post here quoting Randa's progression on his Shinori read. You can ignore everything else for now, but please, please tell me how you liked that progression on the Shinori read because like I said, even after I know Randa was town, the progression looks terrible and I don't know why you liked it, which makes me think you're making up your read.

>Says Shinori confuses him and it was a gut reaction, which is why he voted SB over Shinori.

>Later mentions that he believes Shinori was forced.

>Rereads Shinori after Shinori questions him, decides its more likely to come from scum.  This reconsideration is more likely to come from town because it follows his original thought process; he's not reinventing a read on Shinori here.

>Has issues with Shinori throwing shade on him.

>Says that his argument is meta relevant and explains why that's the case.

>Not relevant to his Shinori read but I hard agree w/Randa saying that he was defensive because most of the content was ABOUT HIM.  That's where my read started to shift, because I think someone getting piled on and then getting shit for being defensive is more likely to come from cases in bad faith.

>Read on Shinori changes based on talking with SB and Shinori's newer posts.  People are complaining about this because "it could come from scum" but it really doesn't benefit Scum!Randa to completely drop his Shinori read.

@Eurykins I'm more bothered by your lack of pushes today.  Your reaction to the guilty bothers me but it's not the main issue I have with your slot.  I know you haven't been on much, but you still had enough time to get salty at Shinori even though he's been townreading you and you haven't been scumreading him.

I think I'd rather lynch Eurykins than a slot that isn't even existent.  @SB. Why is Bartozio worse than Eurykins?  I'd agree that he's worse disregarding D3, but it bothers me that Eury hasn't really pushed anyone this whole day TMK.  I mean, you could say the same for Bartozio, but he's also like not here so I'm not as confident there.

Orihime's catch up posts are okay, I want to see where her reads are actually at though because I can't really get a handle on them.

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3 minutes ago, Refa said:

@Eurykins I'm more bothered by your lack of pushes today.  Your reaction to the guilty bothers me but it's not the main issue I have with your slot.  I know you haven't been on much, but you still had enough time to get salty at Shinori even though he's been townreading you and you haven't been scumreading him.

I think I'd rather lynch Eurykins than a slot that isn't even existent.  @SB. Why is Bartozio worse than Eurykins?  I'd agree that he's worse disregarding D3, but it bothers me that Eury hasn't really pushed anyone this whole day TMK.  I mean, you could say the same for Bartozio, but he's also like not here so I'm not as confident there.

...Have you read ANYTHING that I posted so far today/tonight? I don't... even... what????

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