Who Would Logically Win the Hoshidian-Nohrian Conflict

[Soleater]

So I'm sure a good chunk of people are sick and tired of people beating on Fates for it's story, plot (holes), contrivances, etc.  Generally, everything to do with it's writing is often criticized, from what I've seen.  However, after thinking about it, I feel one of the most poorly written, unrealistic things about Fates yet, is the war they're trying to set up itself.

Let me explain:

In Fates (particularly in Birthright), it's mentioned how poor off Nohr is compared to Hoshido - sure, Nohr is described as more vicious, often apparently surviving through, plundering and conquest (ha), but with rebellions happening every few days, famines, faceless attacks, and, before Mikoto is killed, a constant push to start war with a country that is clearly better off than you, it was no wonder why Conquest is the harder of the two games - Nohr is struggling to even survive.

Ryoma: So this is Windmire...
Avatar: Yes. I'm finally back... It feels like it's been a lifetime. I never got to spend much time out here. I was always locked away. Still, being so close to the castle. It feels like...returning home. *sigh* It's strange, though. I haven't seen a soul since we arrived. It's so empty and quiet here. It's like the complete opposite of Hoshido.
Ryoma: Yes, it's hard to believe that this is the capital city of a major kingdom.
Silas: Believe it. I'm afraid that the city has been this way for quite some time now. Most regular folks just stay indoors. That way they won't be harassed by brigands or roving Faceless... That's just how it is in Nohr.
Ryoma: Is that so?
Silas: Yes, I'm afraid so. Remember the Woods of Forlorn?  How the trees arched and craned to soak up every possible bit of light? That's how us Nohrians must live as well. Food, resources and even light are limited. That's why our kingdom learned to fight and conquer other countries to prosper. We're like those trees, searching for the sun and trying to survive as best as we can.

But they use plundering and conquest to survive, right?...Yeah, but people don't settle in areas that are unworkable on purpose - in fact, the literal fire river that actually resides in Nohr was a result of an accident.  But, more importantly, what's even left to conquer anyway?  Everything on the western side is seemingly under Nohr's control - the Ice Tribe, Cheve, Marcarth, and Nestra are all occupied by Nohr to an extent, which means they don't have enough resources to support Nohr, or they wouldn't be in this famine in the first place, right?

So that's why (not counting the evil dragon elephant in the room) they went after the eastern territories, right?  To take over their stuff?

That in lies the exact problem with all of this.

Remember the Ice Tribe and Cheve?  They aren't happy under Nohrian control, and are either trying to, or are in the middle of, rebelling.  This means Nohr is not a unified nation, therefor, a weaker nation, since not all of it's army can focus on Hoshido if they're constantly quelling rebellions, and less people can easily be drafted into said Nohrian army if their ranks get low without violent resistance.  Garon is not a popular ruler either, so it's not like the rebels would be willing to sit down talk, and maybe stop rebelling?  It's not going to happen, because Garon uses fear and executions to keep people in line - however, it had the opposite intended effect of spurring people into action rather than keeping them line (in fact, it's revealed that the people of Cheve are working with Hoshido, and LET THEM INTO NOHRIAN TERRITORY in Conquest)

Now look at Hoshido.

Ryoma: That's terrible. Coming from the fruitful land of Hoshido, I had no idea... When this war ends, we'll have to see what we can do to share our resources.
Silas: You're...you're offering aid to a kingdom that you're at war with?
Ryoma: Of course. As the next of kin, I will naturally ascend the throne once I return to Hoshido. And my first priority as king will be revising our foreign policy toward Nohr. We have an abundance of food in Hoshido. More than we can even consume. Why should our neighbors suffer while we live in excess?

Hoshido has food.
Hoshido has men.
Hoshido has happy people that won't rebel (save for one little kingdom, but they were eeeeeeeevil anyway, so) and will fight until their end for Hoshido.

Hoshido has a magical barrier that can keep Nohrians out, that, while up, was basically an age of peace, save for a few Faceless running around.  It wasn't until big demon daddy dragon intervened that Nohr could actually make a move.

And they just instigated a war with a nation with more resources, moral, and likely people, since they aren't being murdered or dying of starvation all the time.

Why?!

Nohr was already struggling to survive, why get into a messy, costly war that would likely just drain them of resources than it would actually benefit them?  Hoshido wasn't bugging them at all, even when Nohr killed their King, Hoshido just put up a magical barrier and told Nohr to screw off.  Why didn't Nohr just try to not tick off the more powerful nation that would wipe them out in just a few days (or however long that game takes place...It's so hard to tell honestly), as was shown in Birthright?

If we were in a scenario where Corrin was a non-factor, and didn't have a magical blade of destiny and was an actual demi-god, if Nohr managed to break through that barrier and start their war with Hoshido, they would be slaughtered nearly instantly - low food means they can't survive sieges, low numbers of army men because of said lack of food means they can't restock troops or even advance in the war, as Nohr would be too busy playing defense and probably losing major ground to the much better off Hoshidians to actually "conquer" anything.  Not to mention, Cheve and the Ice Tribe seem to be on Hoshido's side on this, so free shelter and (little) food for the Hoshidians during their campaign!  Whilst the only place willing to really vouch for Nohr was Mokushu, which was ready and willing to betray Nohr if it didn't suit their means, and if they saw Hoshido ripping the Nohrians a collective new one, would Mokushu really want to side with the losing side in this case?  Nestra seems to be a non-factor too, since they aren't shown having any sort of proper army, or trying to intervene when Hoshidians invaded.  The Flame Tribe is pro-Hoshido, the Wind Tribe is mostly neutral, so that rules them out as potential allies and food sources, so really, Nohr is fighting this comparative giant of a kingdom all on their own.  With nothing but dwindling food, starving, rebellious people, and a bunch of uncontrollably cannon fodder at their disposal, how do you think a country like that is supposed to survive at all in a war?

Nohr couldn't get anywhere without Anankos' help, so if they were on their own, Nohr would be killed in less than a few weeks at best, I feel.

Oh, and this isn't even mentioning the environment Nohr has to deal with on a day to day basis - giant rivers of fire?  Haunted forests that also double as Faceless-infested graveyards?  Who the heck would even live in this place if they could just immigrate to Hoshido and avoid all of this day-to-day stress?  Mikoto seems like a nice ruler - she'd probably give them food and let them live in Hoshido if they wanted...

Tl;dr, if Nohr were to fight Hoshido, logically, they'd get pummeled into the dirt because of their lack of resources, military power, unification, allies, and a reliable source of new soldiers to replace the ones that inevitably would fall to Hoshido's stronger, more well-fed, more loyal forces.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Soleater

[Ertrick36]

This is always what I didn't understand when people would say that Nohr is easily capable of conquering Hoshido; that could only be true if they weren't already suffering so horribly from famines, rebellions, and just general crime.  And what's this about forming an army of straight up crooks like Hans?  How is it that none of these people have tried to kill Garon or some other powerful Nohrian nobles?  It's a wonder Nohr's army is even able to function at all, let alone carry out an invasion of a nation that is much better off.

I get that adversity can make one strong, but I mean... at some point, you'll just be too exhausted (or dead) to do anything at all if there's enough adversity.  And I think Nohr's in this state of too much adversity.  I can get how the conflict works in Echoes because Zofia's fields also become barren and they're unable to adjust, but nothing ever suggested that Hoshido was facing the same problem at any point.  In fact, if you play through most of Birthright, things are so calm and comfortable back there that even the guy in charge of the defense force joins you because he feels the automatons are sufficient enough to defend the nation and keep the peace.

It's also why I always imagined that the story of Conquest would never venture outside of Nohr.  I didn't think Nohr would be strong enough to outright invade Hoshido; in fact, I thought Hoshido would invade first and we'd fight them in their outposts/forward operating base (which would explain the generally Japanese scenery in the custcenes they showed off of Ryoma preparing to attack you).  Honestly, I think it just ties into the problems FE generally has with scale.  The writers don't take into consideration the amount of resources and people necessary to properly wage a war.  Realistically, the Hoshidan-Nohrian conflict would probably be most like the Koreas; just a big, nasty stalemate where one of the nations rules with fearmongering and intimidating numbers while its people slowly die off from lack of food resources and technological progress.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Ertrick36

[ZeManaphy]

I would say Nohr. Nohr has access to horses, and having access to cavalry is a huge advantage in campaigns for war.

[joshcja]

And yet the dirtiest urchinist nhorian people are... lookin pretty well fed, dressed, and sheltered.

On the other hand.... Mozu.

----------------------------------------

If we go by class distro... Hoshido has... Oni Savage/spearmaster/Merchant as uniques.

Nhor is like "Hey, we're gonna go Rohan on your ass with all this horse" and then they back it with the best foot in the game, and then they got ya covered on seige/airpower. Also our magic (Staves and tomes) is just straight up better. Also all of our weapons are straight better.

Looking at skills as "training" in the traditional class split... Nhorians get huge low level boosts/reductions to raw damage given/taken for fighting smart. Hoshido has... jack shit till x/15. So we can assume Hoshido cranks out some kickass lone wolves while Nhor is more professional. Sadly Nhornumbers stack higher than epic samurai guy en-mass. (For every single soilder in the formation)

------------------------------

TL:DR:

Nhor is running a professinally trained, well suplied, and competently led army with what looks like merit based promotion. This is straight up terrifying in-period.

Hoshido is... calling up levies, handing them spears, and slapping the nobility up front.

Edited May 29, 2018 by joshcja

[Ertrick36]

1 hour ago, ZeManaphy said:

I would say Nohr. Nohr has access to horses, and having access to cavalry is a huge advantage in campaigns for war.

Hoshidans have flying horses, which are better in just about every way except they're apparently weak to archers in this world.  And most of the time you only see bandits and ruffians as such in Nohr; the only actual knights who are archers are bow knights, who are likely of wavering loyalty if we consider their base classes are either "outlaw" or "mercenary".

In actuality, Nohr's army is of a questionable makeup compared to Hoshido's.  There are soldiers who wear barely anything (fighters and mages), soldiers who wear too much (armor knights), and soldiers of questionable allegiances (mercenaries and outlaws).  I'd also mention the healers and servants, but Hoshido also sends healers who are ill-fit for combat onto the field.  Hoshido does not have soldiers of wavering loyalty, and the least appropriately dressed units are the diviners who are modest in comparison to Nohr's mages.  And most of them are pretty damn loyal and even nationalistic to a degree, so there's no question if they'll follow their orders to the letter.

I'd say as far as equipment and units are concerned, the main thing the Nohrians have going for them is their horseback and dragon knights all wear suitable armor barring a few female characters depending on class decisions made.  And they seem to be about evenly matched with the Hoshidans as far as actual weapons are concerned.  And if there's one good thing about the Nohrians' lack of loyalty and moral ground, it's that they're willing to do things your average soldier wouldn't be caught dead doing.

[Soleater]

On 5/29/2018 at 1:35 AM, Ertrick36 said:

This is always what I didn't understand when people would say that Nohr is easily capable of conquering Hoshido; that could only be true if they weren't already suffering so horribly from famines, rebellions, and just general crime.  And what's this about forming an army of straight up crooks like Hans?  How is it that none of these people have tried to kill Garon or some other powerful Nohrian nobles?  It's a wonder Nohr's army is even able to function at all, let alone carry out an invasion of a nation that is much better off.

I get that adversity can make one strong, but I mean... at some point, you'll just be too exhausted (or dead) to do anything at all if there's enough adversity.  And I think Nohr's in this state of too much adversity.  I can get how the conflict works in Echoes because Zofia's fields also become barren and they're unable to adjust, but nothing ever suggested that Hoshido was facing the same problem at any point.  In fact, if you play through most of Birthright, things are so calm and comfortable back there that even the guy in charge of the defense force joins you because he feels the automatons are sufficient enough to defend the nation and keep the peace.

It's also why I always imagined that the story of Conquest would never venture outside of Nohr.  I didn't think Nohr would be strong enough to outright invade Hoshido; in fact, I thought Hoshido would invade first and we'd fight them in their outposts/forward operating base (which would explain the generally Japanese scenery in the custcenes they showed off of Ryoma preparing to attack you).  Honestly, I think it just ties into the problems FE generally has with scale.  The writers don't take into consideration the amount of resources and people necessary to properly wage a war.  Realistically, the Hoshidan-Nohrian conflict would probably be most like the Koreas; just a big, nasty stalemate where one of the nations rules with fearmongering and intimidating numbers while its people slowly die off from lack of food resources and technological progress.

Not to mention they have barely controllable people like Peri in the army (as a retainer), and don't seem to bat an eye...meaning this is probably normal and they're even worse off that we originally thought.

SoV thought out it's conflict better, hands down; the only way I can think Nohr could possibly have a fighting chance is if they take the tactic Germany did in WWII - don't go after the big guys until you capture a bunch of smaller nations that each have the resources you need, and then use said resources to further the campaign.  But Nohr instead charges straight for the capitol, and expects everything to be fine.

...Hoshido also was generally peaceful even when a bunch of undead monstrosities were wandering their lands.  Because they had OP Lobster boy taking care of everything

Both ideas would actually be really interesting - a defense, anti-siege focused campaign, and a story that focuses on a stalemate rather than a fullblown war, while political intrigue and maybe demon dragons if you wanted to throw that in ensues.  Tad more interesting than just "Grrr evil black kingdom invades good white kingdom again grrrr" at the very least.

On 5/29/2018 at 4:12 AM, ZeManaphy said:

I would say Nohr. Nohr has access to horses, and having access to cavalry is a huge advantage in campaigns for war.

22 hours ago, Ertrick36 said:

Hoshidans have flying horses, which are better in just about every way except they're apparently weak to archers in this world.  And most of the time you only see bandits and ruffians as such in Nohr; the only actual knights who are archers are bow knights, who are likely of wavering loyalty if we consider their base classes are either "outlaw" or "mercenary".

Yes, while cavalry is good and all, there's a reason why air superiority is such a crucial thing in warfair - yes, Nohr has Wyverns, this little comment is made in Chapter Eleven, while the Nohrian party is trying to climb the mountain:

Camilla: Aww, my poor widdle Avatar. You look so exhausted! Why don't you have a little rest? You can ride my dragon for a bit.
Avatar: That's very sweet of you, Camilla. But I'll survive. Surely someone else could use the break more then myself. 

.......Wait, if they have dragons, then why didn't they just fly up the mountain?
This implies to me at least that Wyvern's don't actually have great endurance, since Corrin refers to it as "a break", it's likely that the wyvern isn't actually flying up (then it probably wouldn't be a break, it'd either be at the top of the mountain, or it'd be way ahead of the rest of the party), rather, it's probably just a person sitting on top of it while it's walking.

Meanwhile.

During that same Chapter, you fight Hinoka, who brought multiple Pegasus Warriors here (By contrast, the your Nohrian party would likely only have two Wyvern Riders at this point in the game, Camilla and Beruka), beat your time, brought an entire army, and has enough energy to fight you at that.

This tells me that A: the Pegasus Knights either fly faster or have more endurance than Wyvern Riders, and B: that the Hoshidian army can mobilize fast.  Speed and air control both being deathly important in war, and being things that the Hoshidians are better at than the Nohrians (seemingly).

Not to mention the Kinshi Knights, who could clear the way of Wyvern Riders so the Pegasus could dive-bomb ground troops willy-nilly.  Sure, Archers, but that's where the other Hoshidian ground troops come in; all the Wyvern lines have for aerial control is magic and...magic sucks in this game (and also Peggy Knights resist magic anyway, so it's not that helpful compared to the aerial assistance Kinshi Knights give to Pegasus Knights)

On 5/29/2018 at 7:59 AM, joshcja said:

And yet the dirtiest urchinist nhorian people are... lookin pretty well fed, dressed, and sheltered.

On the other hand.... Mozu.

----------------------------------------

If we go by class distro... Hoshido has... Oni Savage/spearmaster/Merchant as uniques.

Nhor is like "Hey, we're gonna go Rohan on your ass with all this horse" and then they back it with the best foot in the game, and then they got ya covered on seige/airpower. Also our magic (Staves and tomes) is just straight up better. Also all of our weapons are straight better.

Looking at skills as "training" in the traditional class split... Nhorians get huge low level boosts/reductions to raw damage given/taken for fighting smart. Hoshido has... jack shit till x/15. So we can assume Hoshido cranks out some kickass lone wolves while Nhor is more professional. Sadly Nhornumbers stack higher than epic samurai guy en-mass. (For every single soilder in the formation)

------------------------------

TL:DR:

Nhor is running a professinally trained, well suplied, and competently led army with what looks like merit based promotion. This is straight up terrifying in-period.

Hoshido is... calling up levies, handing them spears, and slapping the nobility up front.

Yeah, but Silas is proven to be a reliable source of information in the games, so I don't think he should be discredited when he says that "Food, resources and even light are limited" in Nohr.  And about Mozu, her village wasn't suffering from famine, or anything like that - it was a Faceless attack, and that wasn't something anybody could control (save for the Nohrians who summoned the Faceless in the first place).

I don't think it's ever implied that Hoshido has a bunch of villagers for soldiers?  Like, not just, at least - look at Hinoka's force when you fight in her Conquest - mostly well-trained Pegasus Knights (It's mentioned in Hinoka's supports that she had a hard time training her pegasus to listen to her, so they can't just be greenhorn farmhands).  Ninja, which make up a decent chunk of the Hoshidian army, can't just be newly drafted peasants either - they have to be trained rigorously before anyone would consider them an actual ninja.

Mechanics (Mechanistic, whatever those weird puppet people are called) seem like they would need a lot of practice to move those puppets around too, so that rules them out as well.

So there are a lot of members of the Hoshidian army that, by their classes and lore alone, can't be new soldiers from random villages, just because the training to be one of those classes would be enough to make them formidable fighters.

And who said Nohr was well-supplied?  Not Silas, who basically knows everything about the politics and and situations of these kingdoms, it seems.

Edited May 30, 2018 by Soleater

[Interdimensional Observer]

5 hours ago, Soleater said:

.......Wait, if they have dragons, then why didn't they just fly up the mountain?
This implies to me at least that Wyvern's don't actually have great endurance, since Corrin refers to it as "a break", it's likely that the wyvern isn't actually flying up (then it probably wouldn't be a break, it'd either be at the top of the mountain, or it'd be way ahead of the rest of the party), rather, it's probably just a person sitting on top of it while it's walking.

Speaking of this, there is a little something from Path of Radiance that might apply to Fateslandia and the rest of the series:

Spoiler

Jill
Watching you all fight those crows like a band of street rats with sticks,I could see you were no match for me. But even if I were to leave this ship, the land is too far away for me to reach.

Ike
Nonsense. I can see land in the distance from time to time, and I thought you could go anywhere on that wyvern of yours. 

Jill
No wyvern could fly that far without resting, and these islands are thick with half-beast scum. Even if I wanted to, I couldn't leave this ship.
 

This, and yet Jill, by herself, flew from Crimea to Goldoan-Phoenician waters over the course of a month. Had she to land on the continent, well Gallia is half-breeds and landing in Goldoa = you're dead, so she must have just flown from little island to little island which just so happened to be there. Darned that is tenacious, Jill deserves more cred. Although the sheer distance looks utterly untenable from that one quote above, self-contradiction. And we don't know the distances Ike is speaking of.

RD also mentions Jill and Haar starting up a wyvern delivery service together, but we don't know the details of size and quantity the cargo they ferried. Probably nothing heavy though. No more than a camel's back at most I'd guess, flight demands should limit loads.

 

5 hours ago, Soleater said:

and...magic sucks in this game

Horse Spirit, Lightning, Mjolnir and Brynhildr aren't bad, and Excalibur wouldn't be either were it not so restricted. Gameplay weakness does not equal story/lore weakness. Who is to say Nohr couldn't rain magical fire from above? It'd outdo Hoshidan Kinshi volleys of fire arrows (assuming they'd use such a weapon, reasonable I think).

 

Air units in FE can't be WWII bombers I think, with the power to level cities hundreds of miles away and return relatively unscathed. Light load and personnel transfers (RD does the latter with River Crossing- the GMs and Ranulf's bunch of generics basically being special forces), surveillance, some raid and razing potential, and of course air support in the middle of a battle. So still very useful.

[Ertrick36]

2 hours ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

Gameplay weakness does not equal story/lore weakness.

That's why I don't consider things such as character stats as much of an indication of actual character strength.  With enough effort, you can make a Revelation!Gunter the strongest unit in your army, but he's not supposed to be too terribly strong (certainly not stronger than people like Xander).  I only mentioned weakness to archers when talking about the pegasi because the characters actually treat arrows as serious threats to fliers in story and supports like this one:

Rinkah: After our enemies began to retreat, you pushed on and pursued them. You kept going for quite a distance.

Subaki: I didn't chase them that far...

Rinkah: No, you did. Even if we had attempted to follow, it would have taken a great deal of time to catch up.

Subaki: Hmm... Perhaps that's true. It's hard to recall in hindsight.

Rinkah: It seemed unnecessarily dangerous, don't you think? What would you have done if a band of archers had been waiting to ambush you?

That being said, if there are some general trends (e.g. samurai being speedier than most other units), I might consider them.  Not necessarily in the vein of the specific RNG mechanics in Fates making dodge-tanking less viable, but rather stuff like Falcon Knights being more resistant to magic than average, thus being a decent counter to Malig Knights wielding magic instead of axes or the fact that Silence is a spell Hoshidans in particular wield (and that the Silence Rods are not very durable).

8 hours ago, Soleater said:

Ninja, which make up a decent chunk of the Hoshidian army, can't just be newly drafted peasants either - they have to be trained rigorously before anyone would consider them an actual ninja.

Now, this is true, but one pertinent point about ninjas is they aren't actually supposed to be combatants.  This doesn't mean they'd be useless in an army...  It's just that they're better suited to espionage.  Even the story sort of recognizes this in some fashion, because Kaze says this in the beginning:

Kaze: A ninja’s shuriken may not cut deep, but it can sap you of your strength. Your death need not come all at once.

This implies that the shuriken - the main weapon of the ninja in this world - is not enough to outright kill someone immediately in a combat situation, and on the battlefield that is probably the worst kind of weapon to wield.  As such, the ninjas are only capable of self-defense.  Even when Saizo challenged Subaki - a polearm wielder - to a duel, they never implied that the former was evenly matched with the latter (at least in combat ability) because Corrin stopped it before it got very serious.

The fact that Hoshido uses them as combatants isn't particularly ideal.  They ought to be using their samurais, spear fighters, air fighters, archers, dread fighters (it's listed as a Hoshidan class, so I'm assuming they exist in-Fates-canon), and weapon masters as main combatants more than any others, with the tribal classes (kitsune and oni savages/chieftains) backing them up, the dedicated healers completely off the battlefield (the Falcon Knights are good enough field medics), the diviners using whatever magical prowess they have to support the main troops, and the merchants/apothecaries supporting the army outside the battlefield through convoys and medicinal aid.  It's a similar case to Nohr sending maids, butlers, and troubadours to the field; they really should stay back and just help those back at the base.

This all being said, I generally agree; most soldiers in the Hoshidan army seem quite professional and capable.  A good number of Hoshidan supports revolve around sparring and training, so you actually see that they train quite a lot.  Hell, dedication to training is one of Hana's and Subaki's main gimmicks.  That's proof enough that the soldiers in general train quite a lot and all have some level of merit.  And the reason the retainers are picked is they're meant to be servants.  That could mean serving as an actual combatant (Hana, Subaki, Oboro, Hinata, and Setsuna seem quite capable of this), but it could also mean they're good with other functions.  They aren't military generals; they're personal assistants for the nobility, and as such it doesn't matter if they were picked based off of merit since they're only meant to serve the needs of each individual royal figure.  And Mozu is clearly a special case that happens only in Corrin's presence, thus she can't be factored in this equation.

9 hours ago, Soleater said:

Mechanics (Mechanistic, whatever those weird puppet people are called) seem like they would need a lot of practice to move those puppets around too, so that rules them out as well.

Another thing... something needing a lot of practice doesn't always make it ideal.  If something's encumbrance outweighs the value it could provide, it's not of much use.  As such, it is especially important to consider the strengths and weaknesses of that class.  It can shoot both arrows and small blades, the latter of which I'd say is more useful than simply slashing/throwing because if it fires like a bow it probably will make a more powerful impact.  And it also has more movement speed than infantry, enabling it to act as cavalry that doesn't need to be taken care of like a horse would (though it probably needs to be oiled and the like).  But they can't really fight against opponents in their face, and they actually retain some of the same weaknesses that armored units do (I actually saw that sting shurikens do bonus damage against them).

[Soleater]

8 hours ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

Speaking of this, there is a little something from Path of Radiance that might apply to Fateslandia and the rest of the series:

  Reveal hidden contents

Jill
Watching you all fight those crows like a band of street rats with sticks,I could see you were no match for me. But even if I were to leave this ship, the land is too far away for me to reach.

Ike
Nonsense. I can see land in the distance from time to time, and I thought you could go anywhere on that wyvern of yours. 

Jill
No wyvern could fly that far without resting, and these islands are thick with half-beast scum. Even if I wanted to, I couldn't leave this ship.
 

This, and yet Jill, by herself, flew from Crimea to Goldoan-Phoenician waters over the course of a month. Had she to land on the continent, well Gallia is half-breeds and landing in Goldoa = you're dead, so she must have just flown from little island to little island which just so happened to be there. Darned that is tenacious, Jill deserves more cred. Although the sheer distance looks utterly untenable from that one quote above, self-contradiction. And we don't know the distances Ike is speaking of.

RD also mentions Jill and Haar starting up a wyvern delivery service together, but we don't know the details of size and quantity the cargo they ferried. Probably nothing heavy though. No more than a camel's back at most I'd guess, flight demands should limit loads.

 

Horse Spirit, Lightning, Mjolnir and Brynhildr aren't bad, and Excalibur wouldn't be either were it not so restricted. Gameplay weakness does not equal story/lore weakness. Who is to say Nohr couldn't rain magical fire from above? It'd outdo Hoshidan Kinshi volleys of fire arrows (assuming they'd use such a weapon, reasonable I think).

 

Air units in FE can't be WWII bombers I think, with the power to level cities hundreds of miles away and return relatively unscathed. Light load and personnel transfers (RD does the latter with River Crossing- the GMs and Ranulf's bunch of generics basically being special forces), surveillance, some raid and razing potential, and of course air support in the middle of a battle. So still very useful.

Nohr could rain magic attacks from above, but they never show any magical prowess to that extent, but you do have a point - save for some generalities, gameplay doesn't equal story.  I was just making a joke about the magic system in general, while trying to make a point that Pegasus and Kinshi Knights don't seem to be particularly bothered by magic, sorry if I didn't make it clear ^^"

And I don't think Pegasus Knights would be bombers (though, dropping small metal spearhead-type things or perhaps small, magically infused bombs would be terrifying, but I digress), I was just saying that they could pick off land units from the air, while the land units wouldn't be able to do anything, since the Pegasus Knights would just swoop back into the air out of range.  That's what I meant when I said dive-bombing, not literal bombing, but the latter would still be really cool ngl ^^  (And the Nohrians could use this technique too - it could have even given them an edge over grounded Hoshidian encampments)

Interesting though that Fire Emblem seems to make a point that Wyvern's aren't as enduring as Pegasus Knights - maybe an in-lore nod to Pegasus Knights generally being faster than Wyvern Knights in gameplay?

4 hours ago, Ertrick36 said:

That's why I don't consider things such as character stats as much of an indication of actual character strength.  With enough effort, you can make a Revelation!Gunter the strongest unit in your army, but he's not supposed to be too terribly strong (certainly not stronger than people like Xander).  I only mentioned weakness to archers when talking about the pegasi because the characters actually treat arrows as serious threats to fliers in story and supports like this one:

Rinkah: After our enemies began to retreat, you pushed on and pursued them. You kept going for quite a distance.

Subaki: I didn't chase them that far...

Rinkah: No, you did. Even if we had attempted to follow, it would have taken a great deal of time to catch up.

Subaki: Hmm... Perhaps that's true. It's hard to recall in hindsight.

Rinkah: It seemed unnecessarily dangerous, don't you think? What would you have done if a band of archers had been waiting to ambush you?

That being said, if there are some general trends (e.g. samurai being speedier than most other units), I might consider them.  Not necessarily in the vein of the specific RNG mechanics in Fates making dodge-tanking less viable, but rather stuff like Falcon Knights being more resistant to magic than average, thus being a decent counter to Malig Knights wielding magic instead of axes or the fact that Silence is a spell Hoshidans in particular wield (and that the Silence Rods are not very durable).

Now, this is true, but one pertinent point about ninjas is they aren't actually supposed to be combatants.  This doesn't mean they'd be useless in an army...  It's just that they're better suited to espionage.  Even the story sort of recognizes this in some fashion, because Kaze says this in the beginning:

Kaze: A ninja’s shuriken may not cut deep, but it can sap you of your strength. Your death need not come all at once.

This implies that the shuriken - the main weapon of the ninja in this world - is not enough to outright kill someone immediately in a combat situation, and on the battlefield that is probably the worst kind of weapon to wield.  As such, the ninjas are only capable of self-defense.  Even when Saizo challenged Subaki - a polearm wielder - to a duel, they never implied that the former was evenly matched with the latter (at least in combat ability) because Corrin stopped it before it got very serious.

The fact that Hoshido uses them as combatants isn't particularly ideal.  They ought to be using their samurais, spear fighters, air fighters, archers, dread fighters (it's listed as a Hoshidan class, so I'm assuming they exist in-Fates-canon), and weapon masters as main combatants more than any others, with the tribal classes (kitsune and oni savages/chieftains) backing them up, the dedicated healers completely off the battlefield (the Falcon Knights are good enough field medics), the diviners using whatever magical prowess they have to support the main troops, and the merchants/apothecaries supporting the army outside the battlefield through convoys and medicinal aid.  It's a similar case to Nohr sending maids, butlers, and troubadours to the field; they really should stay back and just help those back at the base.

This all being said, I generally agree; most soldiers in the Hoshidan army seem quite professional and capable.  A good number of Hoshidan supports revolve around sparring and training, so you actually see that they train quite a lot.  Hell, dedication to training is one of Hana's and Subaki's main gimmicks.  That's proof enough that the soldiers in general train quite a lot and all have some level of merit.  And the reason the retainers are picked is they're meant to be servants.  That could mean serving as an actual combatant (Hana, Subaki, Oboro, Hinata, and Setsuna seem quite capable of this), but it could also mean they're good with other functions.  They aren't military generals; they're personal assistants for the nobility, and as such it doesn't matter if they were picked based off of merit since they're only meant to serve the needs of each individual royal figure.  And Mozu is clearly a special case that happens only in Corrin's presence, thus she can't be factored in this equation.

Another thing... something needing a lot of practice doesn't always make it ideal.  If something's encumbrance outweighs the value it could provide, it's not of much use.  As such, it is especially important to consider the strengths and weaknesses of that class.  It can shoot both arrows and small blades, the latter of which I'd say is more useful than simply slashing/throwing because if it fires like a bow it probably will make a more powerful impact.  And it also has more movement speed than infantry, enabling it to act as cavalry that doesn't need to be taken care of like a horse would (though it probably needs to be oiled and the like).  But they can't really fight against opponents in their face, and they actually retain some of the same weaknesses that armored units do (I actually saw that sting shurikens do bonus damage against them).

They really should be using the ninja as the actual assassins that they are instead of throwing them in the front lines - shurikens shouldn't even be used as weapons, as they're actually distractions; chalk that up to Fates using pop culture towards building their ninja rather than fact.  (Here's what I'm talking about btw, under "Usage".  Ik it's Wikipedia, but the thing I'm talking about is sourced, so it should be fine)  Ninja should be fighting with daggers if anything (or, since Hoshido seems to be culturally based off of the period when the Sengoku Jidai was happening, early guns called arquebuses could be used.  I'm not even joking).  My point wasn't if the Hoshidians were using the ninja well, it was a point towards the Hoshidian army actually being well trained, instead of just throwing a bunch of drafted farmers into battle without decent training that @joshcja was implying.  Same goes for the Mechanist - I'm not sure how practical it is, but my point wasn't if it was a practical fighting style, it was if a farmhand could use that without extensive training, which I think is no.

Also about the practicality of the ninja in the game, Saizo has an identifiable scar that makes him immediately recognizable, Kagero has no idea what a shirt is, Kaze exposes his entire face, I don't think these ninja are very historically accurate as a whole (not to mention, since most ninja can learn the Poison Strike skill, is Fates saying they can poison...with shurikens??).

I don't think Fates is accurate to anything as a whole for the record, or we wouldn't be having this discussion :/

[Ertrick36]

13 minutes ago, Soleater said:

I don't think Fates is accurate to anything as a whole for the record, or we wouldn't be having this discussion :/

Well sure, it being a work of fiction means anything goes.  But as such, there's an old, tired saying I always refer to, and it's that "There's nothing new under the sun"; even being the unique creation of artists, the game draws from a number of wells rooted in reality.  Therefore, some things could logically apply, and I believe the point of this discussion is to see just how much logic you could apply to this work of fiction and practice debate and critical thinking skills.

I mostly see this and various other discussions regarding lore as sort of thought and debate exercises.  I honestly could care less if Fates is inaccurate because technically everything written besides straight up mathematics and some scientific works is inaccurate to a degree due to simple human error and the fact that we honestly have pretty unreliable memories.

18 minutes ago, Soleater said:

My point wasn't if the Hoshidians were using the ninja well, it was a point towards the Hoshidian army actually being well trained, instead of just throwing a bunch of drafted farmers into battle without decent training that @joshcja was implying.  Same goes for the Mechanist - I'm not sure how practical it is, but my point wasn't if it was a practical fighting style, it was if a farmhand could use that without extensive training, which I think is no.

Of course, and that point wasn't lost on me.  It's like if you were talking about the level of training one would need to fire a javelin launcher or fly a fighter jet.  I merely was just trying to mediate and consider every aspect of the Hoshidan troops.  Also was just trying to see if I could think of proper functions for each of the classes in an army, and I sort of projected those thoughts into a long-winded post.

[Soleater]

4 minutes ago, Ertrick36 said:

Well sure, it being a work of fiction means anything goes.  But as such, there's an old, tired saying I always refer to, and it's that "There's nothing new under the sun"; even being the unique creation of artists, the game draws from a number of wells rooted in reality.  Therefore, some things could logically apply, and I believe the point of this discussion is to see just how much logic you could apply to this work of fiction and practice debate and critical thinking skills.

I mostly see this and various other discussions regarding lore as sort of thought and debate exercises.  I honestly could care less if Fates is inaccurate because technically everything written besides straight up mathematics and some scientific works is inaccurate to a degree due to simple human error and the fact that we honestly have pretty unreliable memories.

Of course, and that point wasn't lost on me.  It's like if you were talking about the level of training one would need to fire a javelin launcher or fly a fighter jet.  I merely was just trying to mediate and consider every aspect of the Hoshidan troops.  Also was just trying to see if I could think of proper functions for each of the classes in an army, and I sort of projected those thoughts into a long-winded post.

I mean, there's a difference between throwing magic and dragons into a work of fiction, and trying to pretend to have semi-accurate ninja running around without disguises and throwing shuriken around like their throwing knives.  Not to mention, Fire Emblem rarely seems to roll with it's absurdity, instead acting like you should take it's female cavilers not wearing pants, or the complete lack of proper chaffing protection for the Wyvern Riders, and everything about Camilla, seriously.  But I suppose you have a point - let's just take the complete lack of armor for the Nohrian rider classes as another point against Nohr winning against Hoshido instead!  If they aren't going to proper suit up their riders, I'm just going to assume they didn't have the budget for butt armor, and they're gonna get penalized for it in my book, son.

But yeah, overall it's probably best not to get too hung up over mathematical details, it's just stuff like the ninja and the Nohrian riders that bugs me tbh ^^"

Though on the topic of Mechanist's being functional, I feel like their best usage wouldn't be as actual mounts, since the Hoshidians already have perfectly functional Pegasi and Kinshi (why they don't have horses is beyond me, since Japan had many fighters who HAD to be ridiculously adept on horseback, since they had to shoot arrows while the horse was moving, usually aiming for a moving target as well).  I think the automatons would be best as like...mobile turrets?  Sort of like those weird puppet things you see randomly in the game that aren't acknowledged at all in universe, but like, surveying fortresses and attacking trespassers and the like.  They're probably magical to an extent, since we don't really see anything nearly as advanced as it to any degree (not to mention, magic in this universe can create semi-loyal lifeforms, the Faceless, so), so it's possible they could alert the mage to the presence of outsiders?  Just anything but those clunky looking mounts, probably.

[Shoblongoo]

Realistically--if we're going by real world history--armored knights with shields and broadswords beat ninja and samurai. Every time. Katanas and naginatas and yumis were objectively inferior in form and function to their medieval European counterparts. 

Nohr has the superior fighting force.

 

Edited May 30, 2018 by Shoblongoo

[Soleater]

46 minutes ago, Shoblongoo said:

Realistically--if we're going by real world history--armored knights with shields and broadswords beat ninja and samurai. Every time. Katanas and naginatas and yumis were objectively inferior in form and function to their medieval European counterparts. 

Nohr has the superior fighting force.

 

Are you talking about the fact that Katanas were often made out of pig iron, instead of the more pure ones of Europe?  Sure, that may be the case, but better weapons aren't going to save you if you're starving to death, and you have people constantly rebelling underneath you while you're trying to fight a war here, people.  Not to mention the already discussed air superiority Hoshido has over Nohr.

I still say Hoshido > Nohr, even if Nohr arguably has better made weapons, it won't save them from famine.

[Shoblongoo]

57 minutes ago, Soleater said:

Are you talking about the fact that Katanas were often made out of pig iron, instead of the more pure ones of Europe?  Sure, that may be the case, but better weapons aren't going to save you if you're starving to death, and you have people constantly rebelling underneath you while you're trying to fight a war here, people.  Not to mention the already discussed air superiority Hoshido has over Nohr.

I still say Hoshido > Nohr, even if Nohr arguably has better made weapons, it won't save them from famine.

I really don't see how anyone can be making the case for Hoshido having superior air power when Nohr has wyverns. 
Hoshido having a surplus of food to Nohr's native scarcity is mitigated by Nohr's ability to get what it needs from looting neighboring territories. (Hell--the threat of famine is all the more reason for Nohr to get up in there and start racking up wins)

And its not like the royals or the army is starving--its the peasants that don't eat if food is scarce. Hans and friends are bulking up on whatever they can plunder. The army is fine. 

_____

...The issue with medieval Japanese vs. European war gear is that their weapons were made to be just big and strong enough to penetrate the strongest armor they would be facing in battle (any excess size and heft would be needless extra weight and loss of maneuverability, and therefore pointless)

Japan never developed the kind of heavy metal platemail favored by European knights; the heaviest armor encountered on a medieval Japanese battlefield would be constructed primarily from bamboo, with only minimal metal covering.  

The more slender and elegant Japanese weaponry was thus constructed to be just big enough and have just enough cutting/piercing power to get through bamboo armor.

Whereas  the flanged maces, spiked lances, and warhammers  in use on European battlefields were weapons designed to buckle and penetrate metal.

Simply put--no matter how skilled the samurai--the samurai can't get past the knight's plate. And the knight can take out the samurai with one clean hit. 

If the Hoshidan/Nohr conflict is supposed to be roughly equivalent to a medieval European army fighting a medieval Japanese army--advantage Nohr. The gap in war-gear is severe. 

  

Edited May 30, 2018 by Shoblongoo

[Jingle Jangle]

4 minutes ago, Shoblongoo said:

I really don't see how anyone can be making the case for Hoshido having superior air power when Nohr has wyverns. 

 

Kinshi Knight are designed to be an anti-air class. especially  with the skill air superiority that allows then to control the sky.(And cause me several resets in Conquest.)

[Shoblongoo]

7 minutes ago, Jingle Jangle said:

 

Kinshi Knight are designed to be an anti-air class. especially  with the skill air superiority that allows then to control the sky.(And cause me several resets in Conquest.)

Aren't we trying to use real world logic and not game mechanics?

Because if that's what we're doing, that strikes me as something that should be dismissed out-of-hand as a game mechanic.

There is no logical reason why a better armored, better armed soldier on a mount packing natural armor somewhere in the ballpark of crocodile-hide to plated dinosaur should be fighting at a disadvantage against a Kinshi Knight. 

Edited May 30, 2018 by Shoblongoo

[Sasori]

Going by ingame logic i'd say the normal Nohrian troops would be the weakest of the bunch. They generally don't have skills and they are in the easier birthright game. I believe that makes some amount of sense since all Hoshidans take their duties very seriously while Nohr seemingly doesn't have many standards. Going by  people like Hans and Peri I can see Nohr just giving every random psycho or lunatic a weapon and sending them out on the field.

Meanwhile yes most Hoshidan soldiers are royals, but there isn't a single one that doesn't take their duty very seriously. They are all trained from birth too so they are probably elite soldiers .

That being said the final (human) opponents on both routes are Nohrian soldiers. They are some of the strongest enemies and that makes sense too. Nohr is a warlike country so they probably have a lot more practice in warfare then their peaceful opponents. Their magic is better too since Iago and even a lower ranked mage like Zola shows some skills that Hoshido can't seem to replicate. Their mages can also create faceless which would only cause Hoshido to be further outnumbered.

Nohr probably has fewer elite forces, but their elites are probably stronger then their Hoshidan counterparts. They outnumber Hoshido with their normal forces and have access to powerful magic and monsters. I don't really see how Hoshido would stand a chance if we go by the things shown ingame.

Edited May 30, 2018 by Sasori

[Interdimensional Observer]

4 hours ago, Soleater said:

And I don't think Pegasus Knights would be bombers (though, dropping small metal spearhead-type things or perhaps small, magically infused bombs would be terrifying, but I digress), I was just saying that they could pick off land units from the air, while the land units wouldn't be able to do anything, since the Pegasus Knights would just swoop back into the air out of range.  That's what I meant when I said dive-bombing, not literal bombing, but the latter would still be really cool ngl ^^  (And the Nohrians could use this technique too - it could have even given them an edge over grounded Hoshidian encampments)

 

And I was just trying to make the point that while air superiority would be a very good thing, it wouldn't be quite as incredible as it is in the one big real war that made use of it.

And I do recall hearing in some FE4 manga, Travant's forces rain Javelins on Quan's during battle. Quan in turn knows from a history of Thracian conflict how to maneuver his agile cavalry out of the way. This should explain why Travant waits until Quan is in Yied before he brings about his fatal attack- to cripple Quan's evasive counters. Javelins/Tomahawks are probably the safest way for fliers to fight, since it lets them strike from far out of reach of enemy melee weapons, and all the G force from plummeting so far should make them pretty powerful. 

Once out of throwing weapons, a flier should be much more vulnerable, since if they miss on the dive-bomb, they're quite liable to being killed I would think before they can return to safe heights. And I don't think trained airborne soldiers and their flying mounts are easily replaceable. 

Overall, in battle, I speculate that the most common use of airborne strikes would be on underprotected rather immobile infantry troops- ones who can neither deflect nor dodge the assault. If you could bring down a fortified line of Archers or some cavalry, that would be great, just not as easily accomplished.

 

23 minutes ago, Sasori said:

Their magic is better too since Iago and even a lower ranked mage like Zola shows some skills that Hoshido can't seem to replicate. Their mages can also create faceless which would only cause Hoshido to be further outnumbered.

A question can then be raised: where does Iago Macbeth get his Faceless powers and such from? If it is indirectly from Anankos, then one can ask should Nohr vs. Hoshido be viewed with Anankos's manipulation of Nohr present, or without it for a more "normal" Nohr?

 

55 minutes ago, Shoblongoo said:

Hoshido having a surplus of food to Nohr's native scarcity is mitigated by Nohr's ability to get what it needs from looting neighboring territories. (Hell--the threat of famine is all the more reason for Nohr to get up in there and start racking up wins)

Though if things stagnated and Nohr failed to work out a good occupation administration (should such a thing exist at this time), it wouldn't take too long before plunder depleted the landscape. 

[Soleater]

52 minutes ago, Shoblongoo said:

I really don't see how anyone can be making the case for Hoshido having superior air power when Nohr has wyverns. 
Hoshido having a surplus of food to Nohr's native scarcity is mitigated by Nohr's ability to get what it needs from looting neighboring territories. (Hell--the threat of famine is all the more reason for Nohr to get up in there and start racking up wins)

And its not like the royals or the army is starving--its the peasants that don't eat if food is scarce. Hans and friends are bulking up on whatever they can plunder. The army is fine. 

_____

...The issue with medieval Japanese vs. European war gear is that their weapons were made to be just big and strong enough to penetrate the strongest armor they would be facing in battle (any excess size and heft would be needless extra weight and loss of maneuverability, and therefore pointless)

Japan never developed the kind of heavy metal platemail favored by European knights; the heaviest armor encountered on a medieval Japanese battlefield would be constructed primarily from bamboo, with only minimal metal covering.  

The more slender and elegant Japanese weaponry was thus constructed to be just big enough and have just enough cutting/piercing power to get through bamboo armor.

Whereas  the flanged maces, spiked lances, and warhammers  in use on European battlefields were weapons designed to buckle and penetrate metal.

Simply put--no matter how skilled the samurai--the samurai can't get past the knight's plate. And the knight can take out the samurai with one clean hit. 

If the Hoshidan/Nohr conflict is supposed to be roughly equivalent to a medieval European army fighting a medieval Japanese army--advantage Nohr. The gap in war-gear is severe. 

  

Then why does Nohr make a straight shot for Hoshido's captial, instead of slowly taking over territory with necessary resources?  If they get their food from looting, why don't they...loot?  Instead, Silas makes it seem like Nohr is doing pretty bad, and is in no shape for a war (besides, shouldn't they have gone after smaller locations for looting, rather than go after the giant, powerful country).  If they were, if they had enough food from their raiding and conquest of other nations, then they woudln't be in this situations, since they have Cheve and the Ice Tribe, and it's apparently not enough.

Peasants will make up the army when the nobles fall, and nobles need food too - if all the food goes to the war effort, peasants will starve, and oops, now you can't resupply your army.

Strong isn't the only factor in swordplay.  Speed tends to be more important, because if you can end it quick, then there's no need for raw strength.

Wait, who said Japanese armor was primarily made out of bamboo?  (Look under "Construction")  Looking at this, it's mostly a combination of metal and leather, which would be more than enough to stop blades (cloth can stop swords, since swords only really work on flesh, so).  Not to mention, swords, fighting styles favored speed in Japan (third paragraph under "history") and ending battles quickly, and since plate armor HAD to have openings in order to allow movements, you could still get some nasty hits in.  You said it yourself - the katanas are slender and elegant, so they could easily get through those slim openings (plus, katana aren't the only blade that Hoshidians would have access to).

I think when it comes to gear, the combats are more easily matched than that.

52 minutes ago, Shoblongoo said:

Aren't we trying to use real world logic and not game mechanics?

Because if that's what we're doing, that strikes me as something that should be dismissed out-of-hand as a game mechanic.

There is no logical reason why a better armored, better armed soldier on a mount packing natural armor somewhere in the ballpark of crocodile-hide to plated dinosaur should be fighting at a disadvantage against a Kinshi Knight. 

Ehhhhhhhhhhh it's basically applying real world logic to game mechanics a little, but mostly lore - it's mentioned in Sukbaki's and Rinkah's supports that Pegasus Knights are actually weak to bows, and have you seen the damage bows can do?  Those things are terrifying!  Definitely could pierce crocodile-hide no problem, since a well-placed arrow could pierce through basically anything but complete metal (have you seen some of the crazy stuff arrows can do?  I've seen people with traditional arrows shoot through one-hundred layers of very thick cloth, and burst through the other side - a sword can't even get through one usually, since they're again, mostly made for cutting flesh).  Kinshi Knights would still be terrifying anti-air units, I think, since they could take out Wyvern Knights (and ground units) with ease.

47 minutes ago, Sasori said:

Going by ingame logic i'd say the normal Nohrian troops would be the weakest of the bunch. They generally don't have skills and they are in the easier birthright game. I believe that makes some amount of sense since all Hoshidans take their duties very seriously while Nohr seemingly doesn't have many standards. Going by  people like Hans and Peri I can see Nohr just giving every random psycho or lunatic a weapon and sending them out on the field.

Meanwhile yes most Hoshidan soldiers are royals, but there isn't a single one that doesn't take their duty very seriously. They are all trained from birth too so they are probably elite soldiers .

That being said the final (human) opponents on both routes are Nohrian soldiers. They are some of the strongest enemies and that makes sense too. Nohr is a warlike country so they probably have a lot more practice in warfare then their peaceful opponents. Their magic is better too since Iago and even a lower ranked mage like Zola shows some skills that Hoshido can't seem to replicate. Their mages can also create faceless which would only cause Hoshido to be further outnumbered.

Nohr probably has fewer elite forces, but their elites are probably stronger then their Hoshidan counterparts. They outnumber Hoshido with their normal forces and have access to powerful magic and monsters. I don't really see how Hoshido would stand a chance if we go by the things shown ingame.

Yeah, but even going by in-game logic, you get classes titled "Outlaw", "Thief", and "Trickster", telling me that Nohr's army is mostly made up of criminals that they just picked up off the street - probably not as fearsome as Hoshidian warriors, which, looking at the opposite set of classes (Ninja, Sword Masters, Pegasus Knights), those take time and effort and training to make functional.  And if we aren't going by in-game mechanics, it's never made clear how many nobles/royals/peasants/outlaws make up each of the armies, so I don't think it's a number we can take into account without making huge guesses.  Like, for my money, I'd say that both countries draft, but Nohr drafts from places like Cheve (places that don't like Nohr), whereas Hoshido has more happy, loyal villages, so those who get drafted are less likely to rebel and cause in fighting.  Not to mention Nohr's zeal for taking in unpredictable criminals (Hans, Shura), but at this point, it's mostly just guesses as to the ratio of villagers to outlaws, of greenhorns to well-trained nobles, so y e a h...

I don't think it's ever really stated in-universe how powerful Nohrian magic is compared to Hoshidian magic, so I'm not sure if we can really compare mages without, again, making guesses.

Also monsters...In-game, Faceless are terrible units.  In-universe, they are apparently supposed to be really powerful, but even when they were getting through and making a mess of Hoshido, they didn't seem to take it too seriously...Not enough to go and attack Nohr for slaughtering their people, so it couldn't have been that bad (if when their Prince/ss decides to go over there is considered by them as a better time to declare war...).  Faceless also are kind of a larger investment?  Since they tend to kill the mages who summon them?  And we no nothing about the Stoneborn, what they are, who made them and how, how powerful they are in comparison to Faceless, nothing.  So they're probably better to be considered a non-factor, since they're never acknowledged in-universe, nor is their like a "Stoneborn Maker" like there is a "Mechanist" for the Puppets.

21 minutes ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

And I was just trying to make the point that while air superiority would be a very good thing, it wouldn't be quite as incredible as it is in the one big real war that made use of it.

And I do recall hearing in some FE4 manga, Travant's forces rain Javelins on Quan's during battle. Quan in turn knows from a history of Thracian conflict how to maneuver his agile cavalry out of the way. This should explain why Travant waits until Quan is in Yied before he brings about his fatal attack- to cripple Quan's evasive counters. Javelins/Tomahawks are probably the safest way for fliers to fight, since it lets them strike from far out of reach of enemy melee weapons, and all the G force from plummeting so far should make them pretty powerful. 

Once out of throwing weapons, a flier should be much more vulnerable, since if they miss on the dive-bomb, they're quite liable to being killed I would think before they can return to safe heights. And I don't think trained airborne soldiers and their flying mounts are easily replaceable. 

Overall, in battle, I speculate that the most common use of airborne strikes would be on underprotected rather immobile infantry troops- ones who can neither deflect nor dodge the assault. If you could bring down a fortified line of Archers or some cavalry, that would be great, just not as easily accomplished.

 

A question can then be raised: where does Iago Macbeth get his Faceless powers and such from? If it is indirectly from Anankos, then one can ask should Nohr vs. Hoshido be viewed with Anankos's manipulation of Nohr present, or without it for a more "normal" Nohr?

 

Though if things stagnated and Nohr failed to work out a good occupation administration (should such a thing exist at this time), it wouldn't take too long before plunder depleted the landscape. 

Cavalry is important, I can't deny that.  (What I don't understand is why Hoshido doesn't HAVE cavalry, but w/e I guess)  But my point is that despite how scary cavalry can be, it's no match for flying units like Pegasus Knights and Kinshi Knights, since having the upper ground is such an advantage (and since Nohr doesn't seem to have any form of anti-air unit that isn't stuck on the ground...).  While yeah, you make a very good point about swooping, and how dropping stuff would be better, but that just makes the Hoshidian air-force all the more terrifying.  My main point though is that no matter how much of a cavalry Nohr has, they wouldn't get anywhere without food or resources, so Hoshido could just either wait them out, or pick them off, with or without cavalry.  (Though I won't deny how helpful that would be for Hoshido...They need horses)

I was generally trying to take Anankos out of the equation, since how much he helps tends to be...kind of weird?  Like he breaks the barrier keeping Nohr out, but then like, doesn't send his Vallite Troops to help out?  If he were helping out the whole time, then I would think Nohr would have a fighting chance, but his units just seem to be all over the place and attacking whoever they want, so I don't think Anankos is a very reliable ally.

[Etrurian emperor]

Nohr being poor and starving doesn't have to be to their detriment in the war. In fact it might even be a boon because they are a  fiercer people, better adjusted to handle the hardship that come with war. Its worth noting that ''barbarians'' from barren places often make better soldiers than citizens from soft, spoiled countries. China's been punched around by their nomadic neighbors a lot in its history, and the Romans and Persians didn't always fare much better. 

The game also pretty consistently portrays Nohr as having the upper hand in the war. In Conquest their invasion is a smashing success and in Birthright the war only ends because Hoshidans manage to ''sneak'' into Windmire and dethrone Garon. Isn't there a scene in birthright were the siblings discuss just how badly things are going on the homefront? In Revelations Hoshido doesn't fare too well either. Takumi's captured and and Ryoma goes missing relatively quickly. In the routes were Nohr doesn't win the war through conquest the war ends tends not to end in an outright Nohrian defeat, it ends because the new regime, whether its Xander or Leo wants the war to end. 

Nohr generally keeps their neighbors in line through force and they do rebel, but at the end of the day they are at least nominally on Nohrs side. Most of Hoshido's neighbors pretty much ignore the war. The wind tribe, Fire tribe and Izumo are isolationists while Mukushu is just itching to turn on Hoshido. Nohr and Mukushu would be able to attack Hoshido from both sides while the other minor nations just sit back and watch.

This may veer a bit into headcanon but I believe that while Hoshidan has the better army it also has a much smaller army than Nohr does. Just about every Hoshidan unit comes from a long line or retainers or are of the nobility. The playable units in Conquest however are pretty much all recruited from the gutter. Iago and Hans further prove that Nohr is willing to let pretty much every psycho join the army. This small army as well as Mikoto being Emmeryn II might suggest that Hoshido just isn't prepared to fight a war.

 

[Dandy Druid]

Hoshido, and here's why I think why:

• Nohr is likely lacking on resources. Even if they do take some from neighboring lands, in a war of attrition, Hoshido can last longer. In contrast, Hoshido has plenty of resources.
• Hoshido's soldiers are more loyal. It's easier to fight for the side that's being invaded, because there is a purpose to fighting. As for the invading side, some may see the war as pointless and will be unmotivated.
• Nohr probably has more untrained soldiers, since most seemed to be criminals probably given the choice of being imprisoned or a soldier, with them opting as a soldier. It's not like they wanted to be a soldier.
• Nohr has a 2 sided war, with Cheve causing a ruckus. They'll have to somehow proportion troops in both the East and the West. Nestra is also in opposition to Nohr. Meanwhile, Hoshido only needs to worry about Mokushu, which is in the same general direction of Nohr. They still wouldn't need to order troops all over the place.
• Nohr does have better armor and better weapons, HOWEVER, if they are low on resources, we can assume that many soldiers are missing essentials like armor, weapons, and even shoes.

[Etrurian emperor]

56 minutes ago, Dandy Druid said:

Meanwhile, Hoshido only needs to worry about Mokushu, which is in the same general direction of Nohr. They still wouldn't need to order troops all over the place.

Isn't Mukushu on a peninsula south of Hoshido while Nohr borders the entire western side of Hoshido? It doesn't really have to be the same general direction. In fact, Nohr can probably only reach Mukushu by boat. 

[starburst]

I find this discussion really interesting, and have read various clever points for each side.

Regarding Nohr being ‘poor’, does it not have the greatest mines? The diverse ore from those mines would not only be highly valuable in trading but also extremely useful for amour and weapons. Granted, one cannot eat rubies or sapphires, but ore can be traded for food and goods (to the Hoshidian Merchants.)

The way I see it, Nohr is experiencing a succession of long, terrible winters and worse harvests when the story begins. (I have never considered that there is a literal eternal night in Nohr, as some supports suggest.) And no matter how powerful the House of Garon was, harsh nature will certainly accentuate the struggles within a realm.

In this scenario, starting a conquest campaign may be the best solution for an already bellicose people like Nohr: It strengthens the identity of the realm, activates chores on every level of the society and, most importantly, demonstrates power. Blame the ‘greedy Hoshidian Merchants’ for the supplies shortage and there is a foe to defeat. War is a political instrument.

I think that Nohr would win the war. They need to.

[Dandy Druid]

2 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

Isn't Mukushu on a peninsula south of Hoshido while Nohr borders the entire western side of Hoshido? It doesn't really have to be the same general direction. In fact, Nohr can probably only reach Mukushu by boat. 

Yeah, but that would mean the Nohrians would have to cross the gorge, which doesn't seem too easy. It's possible, but it would be slow and it would put the Hoshidans at a defensive advantage. There's a reason why both stories travel by boat- it's easier to arrive in Mokushu in bigger quantities. There would be a western front, but it wouldn't be as intense as a front from the South. Plus, either way, they're still in Hoshido, and not terribly spread out. Compared to Nohr, which not only has to invade Hoshido from multiple points, but also has to defend at Cheve. The Nohrians are just more screwed. Luckily, they're strong, but it's not a formula for long term success, imo.

[joshcja]

A lot of people in this thread need to read up on what a standing army did to food production in period.

Also history in general. Pony matters.

Gameplay prespective. Outlaw!Bow knight has 9 move at the point where Kinshi gets AS. Nhor has exclusive access to the freeze and entrap staves. Generic kinshi's struggle to orko equivilant xl WL's and MK's without Very High End bows beastkiller can ohko Kinshi, as can basicly any tome a MK choses to wield. Nhor has Falco's and Kinshi.

Nhor has air advantage, infantry advantage, and a ton of horse.

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Ninja assasins are potentially deadly (eventually) but... entrap stave is Absolute Death immediately and can be wielded by the Nhor equivilants (Servant/Adventurer) or it can just be strapped to a horse/horsebird.

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Nhor has an infinite supply of disposable shock troops (faceless) that can be dropped anywhere by magic. This is really stupid and begs the question... why does hoshido even exist?

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The main army on both routes belongs to Nhor. It marches unimpeded over the gap and blitzes hoshido in record time.

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The gaps in plate are filled by fucking chain mail, leather, and more plate.. Knights can hardly even move when fully armored without a pony which is also armored. That is how much metal is on those dudes. Katanas do not cut steel no matter what the movies tell you. They were an officers side arm (similar to a cav saber) used as a last resort or vs unarmored nerds as a policeing tool. Samurai in battle primarily used bows, polearms, and heavy blunt shit. From horseback.

There is a reason every single weapon in midevil times was triangular and pointy (splits mail) or blunt and heavy (ignores mail entirely). Mail (ring or chain) was not nobility exclusive.

Japanese armor was noble only and used boiled leather with steel strike plates. This is not chain mail and it's absolutely not plate. It was to stop Untipped arrows and deflect light slashing/stabbing blows by flat blades from vital areas.

Edited May 31, 2018 by joshcja