Training Mafia 3.0: Advanced - GAMEOVER

[Athena_57]

4 hours ago, athena_57 said:

I only mentioned Mackc because Mackc was online at the moment. An RVS pressure vote is meaningless if you can't interact off of it. I do think your observation holds for Mackc though as in his case it was more an observation, less an attempt to start a conversation I feel.

@Zeonth Online here meaning online on discord and in thread recently==>probably not sleeping, not online in thread of course

[Iris]

VOTALS

SatsumaFSoysoy (4): RADicate, Junk, Mackc2, athena_57
Makaze (3): Rapier, Zeonth, Fable
Fable (2): Makaze, Bartozio
athena_57 (2): Fenrir Aesir, SatsumaFSoysoy
Bartozio (1): XnadrojX
Rapier (1): EvanManManMan

~11 Hours remain!

[Zeonth]

24 minutes ago, athena_57 said:

@Zeonth Online here meaning online on discord and in thread recently==>probably not sleeping, not online in thread of course

Going to respond to this right away before the rest of my posts because it’s an easy one while at work. Even if it can be played as a real time game when you’re both online, we still have big deadlines and so had you mentioned Evan earlier, too, it could have been pressure he’d have to respond to. Reasoning accepted for now. 

 

What are are your thoughts on Evan and Mack atm? 

[Athena_57]

11 minutes ago, Zeonth said:

Going to respond to this right away before the rest of my posts because it’s an easy one while at work. Even if it can be played as a real time game when you’re both online, we still have big deadlines and so had you mentioned Evan earlier, too, it could have been pressure he’d have to respond to. Reasoning accepted for now. 

 

What are are your thoughts on Evan and Mack atm? 

Evan does not have enough posts to be a reasonable lynch candidate, I don't remember their stuff as bad, mostly just non-existent. Flaking is null, so yeah.

Wrt Mackc, unimpressed so far, worst vote on the Satsuma wagon imo. However, I'm reading their flip-flop an Bartozio as town. I doubt scum would shift gears that quickly.

 

Both leaning ever so slightly scum

[Athena_57]

17 minutes ago, Zeonth said:

Going to respond to this right away before the rest of my posts because it’s an easy one while at work. Even if it can be played as a real time game when you’re both online, we still have big deadlines and so had you mentioned Evan earlier, too, it could have been pressure he’d have to respond to. Reasoning accepted for now. 

I like my pressure to be focused early on.

[Fable]

5 hours ago, Mackc2 said:

Okay Fable you think Makaze is scum then some questions, what is the main factor that gives you this impression? Who would be scum buddies with them? Are you sure makaze's actions are scummy instead of just being rude? Is there anything about makaze's play that stands out as different from their town game? 

Also you did your vote wrong

I've explained why it's wolfy. As for partners I'd maybe cross off Bart as less likely because I don't think all the wolves pile onto me unless the third is satsuma or something. Thought about what that would mean for Evan and I don't think it would actually mean anything since Mak has barely pushed him and I've seen Mak bus for no reason d1 before. Nothing else really jumps out at me in terms of associations. 

[Rapier]

13 hours ago, Makaze said:

Perhaps @Rapier has some questions for me

I do. You mentioned earlier that you dropped your Mack pursuit because he didn't answer your questions correctly, and that you felt like giving him time and analyze his plays before going back to him. What do you think of Mack now, all things considered? If you said anything of the sort earlier and I missed it, my bad.

Also, I still don't think it feels natural to just drop Mack's case. He didn't answer your questions in the way you wanted him to, but you didn't address anything from his reaction and vote switch either. Do you have any opinions on his switch to Fenrir at that time?

8 hours ago, Zeonth said:

*Rapier lynches Athena for “setting people up for faulty reasoning” then provides faulty reasoning about him in the same post.

What faulty reasoning are you talking about? You didn't expand enough on this for me to properly reply and justify my past stance.

8 hours ago, Zeonth said:

*Mack uses the opportunity Makaze gave him to throw a lynch on Fenrir by using his question “who would you lynch right now” to move there. I’d have been more convinced of your read on Fenrir had you made that of your own accord, not under pressure. You also use the reasoning of another player ((Rad’s reasoning)) to justify your lynch. Do you have anything more on Fenrir? Maybe thoughts of your own?

I agree with this read (I had mentioned earlier how odd it was for Mack to suddenly decide to switch to Fenrir when pressured about his read by Makaze, but Zeonth took it much further). Not to mention an Evan vote is pretty much an easy vote.

7 hours ago, athena_57 said:

I literally said I voted for pressure. I had a slight townlean on him, but if the opportunity arises to watch him under pressure to either affirm or correct my read I'm going to take it.

Okay. I found it odd because you didn't show any previous inclination to vote him (you had a townread on him, after all), but then after Bart's interaction and vote you flipped to a "slight scumread". (according to you)

@SatsumaFSoysoy

I'm not very invested in solving the game at Day 1, when reads will be mediocre and quickly subject to change.

Reads don't become any better than mediocre and quickly subject to change if we don't start somewhere from D1 and work on it. This behavior doesn't really promote any improvement on reads or discussion. I can understand having trouble with reads on D1, but this "Yup, I don't really want to scumhunt on D1" attitude is detrimental regardless. I actually agree with Athena on this.

8 hours ago, Fable said:

Like I just really need to vent this. I don't play this game to watch other people post thread summaries, I play it to solve a puzzle that's investigative in nature which requires actually talking to people and if the meta on this site is just exist in a bubble and post thoughts with no interaction I don't find that fun nor interesting. and I'm not going to actually do anything that way. because it simply snuffs out my own playstyle because I thrive on two things, interaction and having time to analyze votals on later days . So that being said maybe it is just better to get me out of the game now if people are just going to exist in bubbles and give me shit because I'm not writing a fucking thesis on only 100 posts. 

Vote: @Fable

I think focusing less on Makaze would be a good start, if you feel your interactions with him are unproductive. There are plenty of people who you can talk to, and this site's meta actually encourages this!

I've yet to take a look on Bart's case on Xnad, but for now I don't think it'd make sense for scum to push for an unprobable lynch when there are other easy wagons lying around which can be easily justified.

[Rapier]

wait no, Bart has a case on Fable, not Xnad, derp. omit

[Athena_57]

Rapier, where are you at in terms of reads currently? I'm liking your questions, but if you could give a gamestance of some sort (doesn't have to be as big as a readlist) that'd be great. According to the votals your vote is on Makaze, but I can't even find where you voted him and am unsure whether that's your preferred lynch atm.

[Athena_57]

I won't be here at phase end btw, but will be checking out 2 or 3 hours earlier. If anyone has questions / wants me to vote somewhere / wants to impress me (hint hint satsuma), do it before then.

[Makaze]

I get off work at 8edt so 8 will be here for lunch and last break but not EOD.

I am willing to consolidate on either Bart or Satsuma if necessary.

[Makaze]

2 hours ago, Rapier said:

I do. You mentioned earlier that you dropped your Mack pursuit because he didn't answer your questions correctly, and that you felt like giving him time and analyze his plays before going back to him. What do you think of Mack now, all things considered? If you said anything of the sort earlier and I missed it, my bad.

Also, I still don't think it feels natural to just drop Mack's case. He didn't answer your questions in the way you wanted him to, but you didn't address anything from his reaction and vote switch either. Do you have any opinions on his switch to Fenrir at that time?

 

What faulty reasoning are you talking about? You didn't expand enough on this for me to properly reply and justify my past stance.

 

I agree with this read (I had mentioned earlier how odd it was for Mack to suddenly decide to switch to Fenrir when pressured about his read by Makaze, but Zeonth took it much further). Not to mention an Evan vote is pretty much an easy vote.

 

Okay. I found it odd because you didn't show any previous inclination to vote him (you had a townread on him, after all), but then after Bart's interaction and vote you flipped to a "slight scumread". (according to you)

 

 

Reads don't become any better than mediocre and quickly subject to change if we don't start somewhere from D1 and work on it. This behavior doesn't really promote any improvement on reads or discussion. I can understand having trouble with reads on D1, but this "Yup, I don't really want to scumhunt on D1" attitude is detrimental regardless. I actually agree with Athena on this.

 

I think focusing less on Makaze would be a good start, if you feel your interactions with him are unproductive. There are plenty of people who you can talk to, and this site's meta actually encourages this!

I've yet to take a look on Bart's case on Xnad, but for now I don't think it'd make sense for scum to push for an unprobable lynch when there are other easy wagons lying around which can be easily justified.

I wasn't really casing Mackc so much as prodding him, but I think I explained my thoughts fairly well. There is one thing I will say:

I think Mackc's behavior is intentionally cautious, but I haven't gotten a feeling that he is lying or being ingenuine either. He's just being very careful about what he's doing. I think this is more likely to be scummy, but any case I made would be easy and not gut based, so I prefer not to get "tells" from behavior that I objectively can't read and subjectively don't have feelings about. I'd prefer to see him come out and risk something by making a reads list or something. Not hold himself in check.

[Makaze]

I just ISO'd Mackc2 to get some context and with the stuff Zeonth pointed out and the way he has responded to me, I don't feel like he is doing it intentionally. Posts like this don't read as scum motivated to me (especially given the lack of prodding between the posts to cause the change):

14 hours ago, Mackc2 said:

Call it a gut feeling but something is tonally off about Bartozio's responses, I can't quite figure out what it is though. I need a bit of time to re-evaluate my reads and see if they are still valid 

 

13 hours ago, Mackc2 said:

I feel like Xan vs Bart is town vs town, I feel if one of them where mafia they would have tried to back down by now especially since their interactions haven't drawn any extra votes their way or started any wagons. 

I'm officially dropping my suspicion until further notice.

Also ISO'd Satsuma. Some stuff pings me:

On 6/18/2018 at 9:35 PM, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Care to explain why you're tunneling Evan so hard that Mack can get a townread just by asking one question?

He never followed up on this or even got a read off of how I responded (I replied with one word "No").

On 6/18/2018 at 11:40 PM, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Not quite on board with a Fable lynch. I don't see the point when he's only interacted with Makaze and no one else. I'd rather lynch someone else like Xnad for D1, since that'll give us an idea about Athena, Bart and Fenrir.

"Not quite on board with" pings me as hedging and qualitatively different from "I'm going to need sold on" and things like that. He's also not trying to interact with Fable himself, which makes this look worse.

On 6/19/2018 at 3:11 AM, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Now that I think about it, this is the exact same development from SF Mafia Mafia 5... Athena votes for someone mildly inactive on Day 1, and stops the pressure in one back and forth. Then Bart comes in to weigh in on that same person, and Athena sheeps Bart. Then Athena gets called out for both backing off quickly and sheeping Bart. And Athena was scum that game.

I don't really like using meta, and there's probably going to be much more compelling reasons for a D1 lynch later, but I'd be down to test this pattern lol.

I don't like this sideways shading because what he is doing is not actually testing his theory or engaging with athena, and I really don't see the town motivation in talking around someone instead of at them when you aren't sure about them.

Athena's case looks especially good with this. Leaning Satsuma/Fable buddies based on the weird way they dismissed a Fable lynch, so this lynch is fine with me, and gives more information than Fable (might also help convince you guys if he flips scum and provide some evidence to go with my gut read).

[SatsumaFSoysoy]

10 hours ago, athena_57 said:

Don't do this to me, man. You're replying to my "You're not gamesolving" with "Yup" and I really don't know how to take this as the attitude is similar to what I've seen from town!you, but it's also really convenient for scum!you.

Here's some stuff I want you to answer:

- You mentioned nadroj was a good info lynch, but your response to my question on what info that was was "I'd give the pocket theory more credit". What else are you getting from it? Cause I don't feel that deserves to be called a good info lynch. Could you also at least try to form an opinion on them?

- There's a train building up on you. Do you think there is scum intent in there or all we all misguided townies? If at least one of us is scum, who is it?

Maybe I should just be honest like Fable and say that I will probably never scumhunt the way you want me to on Day 1 in my entire life because of my playstyle and personality. I try to look at patterns over time instead, because frankly, I'm not fast enough to immediately catch mistakes. I can participate in discussions depending on how active I can be, which I guess is not very much at the moment. Also, I don't know if it's just me, but sometimes people seem to just talk to themselves when posting.

I didn't say it was a good info lynch, I said it was a better lynch because it gives some info compared to Fable. The pocket theory involves more than just you, because Bart, Fenrir and RAD have also been weighing in on it. That same discussion can continue in a different direction the next day if it's brought up again, depending on what Xnad flips. As for Xnad himself, I think his posts are well thought-out and I think he responded to Bart very well (I don't really think Bart's push was good anyway), but that doesn't really tell me anything because scum appearing scummy on Day 1 is just throwing the game. The only scummy person that actually was scum on Day 1 in games I've played was a guy who misunderstood the rules in his first game. That's the main reason why I don't put any stock in reads on Day 1.

Eh. There probably is scum intent in there somewhere since it's quick and easy to get someone who doesn't conform, and everyone will just blame the lynched guy for digging his own grave. I think both you and Junk have reasonable things to say, and RAD's vote was just a pressure vote with no real bite. That leaves Mack, who I guess you could call put a pressure vote on me, but was basically just hopping on board with what you, Xnad and one other guy keep telling me. If there's a vote with scum intent in there, I suppose it'd be Mack.

12 minutes ago, Makaze said:

Leaning Satsuma/Fable buddies based on the weird way they dismissed a Fable lynch, so this lynch is fine with me, and gives more information than Fable

I dismissed your lynch idea because I didn't think your gut lynch was really worth anything when Fable is basically just getting mad at you for pressing him without giving him reasons for doing so. All that lynching him would do is tell us whatever he flips, and then we possibly go down your list, at least until you either magically get all of scum team right or we stop trusting your gut. I'm basically not gonna be on board with gut lynches unless there's other dirt.

[RADicate]

I'll be here for the last about hour and a half of phase. @ work atm 

[Makaze]

##Vote @SatsumaFSoysoy

I have an hour starting now.

I just re-read Bartozio's ISO and I definitely don't get strong impressions either way, and don't feel especially bad about the way they voted Fable either.

@Bartozio What do you think of people other than Fable and Xdranoj?

Offically making a ##Votals call.

[Athena_57]

2 minutes ago, Makaze said:

I just re-read Bartozio's ISO and I definitely don't get strong impressions either way, and don't feel especially bad about the way they voted Fable either.

Your bias on the correctness of the vote aside, would you agree it's an easy vote for scum? Asking since for me it almost singlehandedly moves him from leaning town to consolidation territory.

 

My response to Satsuma's post can be summed up as AAAAAAARRRRGGGHHHHHH.

I was okay with the first part, but the "Eh, there probably is scum intent somewhere" pings me again. I'm currently ISO-ing their town game to cross-reference (yeah, yeah, single game meta bad)

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, athena_57 said:

Your bias on the correctness of the vote aside, would you agree it's an easy vote for scum? Asking since for me it almost singlehandedly moves him from leaning town to consolidation territory.

 

My response to Satsuma's post can be summed up as AAAAAAARRRRGGGHHHHHH.

I was okay with the first part, but the "Eh, there probably is scum intent somewhere" pings me again. I'm currently ISO-ing their town game to cross-reference (yeah, yeah, single game meta bad)

I think it's a fundamentally easy vote for scum even if they are partners, but the absence of other pings and the way he presented it in that post just makes me think it's a lazy switch because he hasn't done his reading after moving off of Xdranoj, but it doesn't read as agenda'd to me. It's lazy at worst (which is not alignment indicative).

Finally ISO's Fenrir. I feel like he is town as well, just from the pacing and complexity of his thoughts, which puts my PoE at:

Fable
Satsuma
EvanManManMan
athena
Bartozio
Mack

From most to least scummy.

What do you think of Fable? Is there anything you want to ask them?

[Makaze]

The last three can be in any order, it's hard for me to pin down priority there.

Wouldn't lynch them today anyway.

[Athena_57]

Okay, finished the ISO on town!satsuma from IDNSFMM5. 

They started out similarly and were quite stubborn for a long time on not having solid reads or voting. Angered/annoyed tone in response to people questioning this is similar.

There are a few differences

- They entered a 1v1 with someone who accused them (hey, it's scum!me). This in contrast with here where he's more nonchalant about the wagon on him, though I should mention he never backed that up with a vote either and kept it at a slight scumread. I did see more interaction there however.

- Late day 1 he actually had reads and shit, though this was after his flaked hydra-partner was replaced (so ignore this point)

- There was no real shading, as opposed to the stuff he's done this game

 

7 minutes ago, Makaze said:

What do you think of Fable? Is there anything you want to ask them?

Bad lynch. Behaviour is pretty NAI and lynch grants no info besides confirming/denying your gut feeling. There's nothing in particular I want to ask them, I'd mostly be interested to see whether/how he picks up steam in later days.

Do you think it makes sense FMPOV (knowing I'm town) to look at my early day wagon for scum and conclude Fenrir is the most likely to flip scum?

[Athena_57]

Most interesting stuff from the ISO was no shading that game (contrast with meta-potshot at me) and engagement+accusation of accusers. Do you think we should put stock in this at all or is this just me inflating meta differences over a single game?

I know I'm reaching a bit, but I'm not getting much to work with here.

[Athena_57]

I think Evan is a pretty poor lynch as well actually

[Makaze]

3 minutes ago, athena_57 said:

Okay, finished the ISO on town!satsuma from IDNSFMM5. 

They started out similarly and were quite stubborn for a long time on not having solid reads or voting. Angered/annoyed tone in response to people questioning this is similar.

There are a few differences

- They entered a 1v1 with someone who accused them (hey, it's scum!me). This in contrast with here where he's more nonchalant about the wagon on him, though I should mention he never backed that up with a vote either and kept it at a slight scumread. I did see more interaction there however.

- Late day 1 he actually had reads and shit, though this was after his flaked hydra-partner was replaced (so ignore this point)

- There was no real shading, as opposed to the stuff he's done this game

 

Bad lynch. Behaviour is pretty NAI and lynch grants no info besides confirming/denying your gut feeling. There's nothing in particular I want to ask them, I'd mostly be interested to see whether/how he picks up steam in later days.

Do you think it makes sense FMPOV (knowing I'm town) to look at my early day wagon for scum and conclude Fenrir is the most likely to flip scum?

I don't understand your last question. Can you quote what you're talking about?

[Athena_57]

2 minutes ago, Makaze said:

I don't understand your last question. Can you quote what you're talking about?

The early wagon on me was Rapier/Fenrir/Junk.

Do you think it's reasonable to look for scum there?

Do you think that townreads on Rapier/Junk combined with Fenrir basing their case on a (in my eyes flawed) pocket theory and bad questions which he shows by quoting an RVS joke of mine as example makes him the most likely scum of the bunch?

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, athena_57 said:

I think Evan is a pretty poor lynch as well actually

This I would agree because if Evan is town he will be a good asset later on, and his lynch is pretty much a modkill at this point (no content). He's just high on my PoE because I don't have any reasons not to suspect him (hence PoE instead of casing).