Training Mafia 3.0: Advanced - GAMEOVER

[Athena_57]

Oh yeah, just noticed during ISO-ing him RAD's only scumread ever was on Fenrir early on for ignoring my vote in his pocket theory, which was dropped for a satsuma pressure vote.

I don't even know why I had him in townreads anymore, I think it was for asking questions early on? Maybe coasting on a townread, maybe just busy, in any case I'm dropping my read to null until he actually cases someone.

 

16 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

@athena_57

sleep is for the weak, have more reading material.

I am unconvinced? Like, I get keeping reads to yourself is bad, but I don't think this is enough to make someone a top lynch candidate. Scumlean, sure, biggest scumread, no. 

[Makaze]

22 minutes ago, athena_57 said:

Mkay.

Could you answer my question on where your "never w/w"-statement came from?

Which one?

[Athena_57]

3 minutes ago, Makaze said:

Which one?

On Bart/Evan, you said they were never w/w at first. Why?

[Zeonth]

5 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

I agree with the notion of it being really unlikely all three are scum and Makaze being the most towny.

What makes you disregard Evan and Fable as mafia bussing though, considering you think they're both individual scummy?

Wait, what? Why in the world does Evan and Fable flipping scum make scum!Makaze more likely, when you "view it as almost impossible that all three are scum based on their history of interactions"?

 

I do not dismiss the possibility of Fable and Evan as bussing, hence: Before *ylo, I would like to see Evan lynched (and first out of these three). If Evan flips town, I would read Fable as likely scum. If Evan flips mafia, then I would see Fable and Makaze as town. 

If Fable were to be lynched before Evan and he flips town, my scumread on Evan remains. If Fable is lynched first and flips mafia, my scumread on Evan remains (though, weakened)

The chances that they could be scum together is still there, just slightly less likely based on flip order. I view Evan as most likely scum, and so if he flips scum first, it detracts the idea that the others are. If Fable flips scum first, it doesn't take away the scumminess that Evan has shown, though the likelihood of two scum in the three is significantly lower. 


The possibility that Makaze can also be scum comes only after the other two flip scum. It's not at all a likely thing, but if they bussed once (fable/evan) then I will not dismiss the possibility that they triple bussed to throw town off in a *ylo situation. It's wifom, mostly. 

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, athena_57 said:

On Bart/Evan, you said they were never w/w at first. Why?

Evan would never passively town read his scum partner when they were about be lynched like this, and not fight harder for it. If Evan is Mafia his only motivation for doing that would be distancing from a mislynch he thinks is going to happen.

[EvanManManMan]

23 minutes ago, Zeonth said:

Reads part ⅓. Expect aq lynch at the end of post 3.

First group are Makaze, Fable, Evan, as I feel these three are so closely intertwined at this point that I’m surprised nobody has mentioned their scumread circle-jerk.

Makaze starts the day (1) with an early scumread on Fable that sticks around up to this current point. He also brings one up on Evan in the same post and keeps this scumread throughout the game until now, too (voted Fable initially D1 and has changed to vote Evan D2 as of the time I am writing this). Fable OMGUSes Makaze early on and by the time D1 ends, both Fable and Evan have each other lynched. They also both start off D2 this way and continually scumread each other (without much real logic (mostly from Evan)).
____________________________________________________________________________

Individual reads:


Makaze- Starts off D1 focusing solely on Fable to the point where all of his reads are NAI and basically useless to me (pointed out in my first post where I said he was trying to look active while doing fuck all). Over the course of late D1 (mostly where he posts his reads list, I get a much clearer picture of him and see that he is focusing on more than just his two gut reads, although still prioritizing them. His interactions with Athena D2 and his willingness to change his mind when faced with new opinions as well as shifting plur and applying pressure to me and Evan reads very townie, as I honestly expected him to remain stubborn in his reads and assume he was right. Town Read.

Fable- Honestly, between the promises of better content and activity towards the end of D1, I was disappointed that he never really offered solid reasonings on his reads. His refusal to ask questions (referring to me, as he claims he has had some but has yet to make a post and tag me in it) while also saying he needs to interact with people to get reads makes me think he is sliding by too easily without very much pressure. He can afford to keep making weak reads/pushes as the only people threatening him so far are the two he’s threatened back. He chocks all of this up to “meta” and I’ve seen a lot of other talk about player’s meta in this thread since most of you have played with each other before. As someone who has not played with you all before, would you read me the same way as Fable or let me slide if I made the same kinds of moves as him? (I am currently being pressured by 2-3 people based on my posts thus far). Leaning Scum Read.

Evan- An early intro post that I can only assume was meant to be a joke made me initially scumread him and his random reappearance to townread only Athena before vanishing again without posting reasonings (while Athena was in the middle of the Xand/Bartozio interactions) felt even further off. His late phase posting on D1 (described as potshots) seemed very ill-informed and he spent most of the time reacting to new posts in the last few hours without catching up on previous pages (he claimed being on page 5 while actively replying to Fable and others on the current pages) leaving me to believe a lot of his late phase reads hold little to no merit and were likely not well thought out. His continuation of these lackluster reads (current posts, including the sentiment that he can’t get a proper read on the game because of my/xand’s lack of posts) does not help his case for me, as he should be able to make a reads post of the players who are active. He also made this post: “I'm completely aware that I'm not doing a very good job. And I know that at this rate, I'm going to be the mislynch in LyLo” which leaves a very bad taste in my mouth as he is assuming he will make it to lylo for some reason? I view this as an attempt at wifom (he uses this early sentiment to keep lynches away from himself in lylo) or as an excuse for later lackluster logic in a *ylo setting. It’s not something I would view a town player as saying, at the very least. Scum Read.

____________________________________________________________________________

There are 3 mafia members left. Of this pool of three (maka, fable, evan), I view it as almost impossible that all three are scum based on their history of interactions. There’s bussing, and then there’s this. At the very least, I view two of them as being town (with the possibility of 1 scum in this pool) with Evan being the most likely scum and Maka being most likely town. Fable is leaning scumread.

Before *ylo, I would like to see Evan lynched (and first out of these three). If Evan flips town, I would read Fable as likely scum. If Evan flips mafia, then I would see Fable and Makaze as town.

If Fable were to be lynched before Evan and he flips town, my scumread on Evan remains. If Fable is lynched first and flips mafia, my scumread on Evan remains (though, weakened) and the possibility of Makaze being third scum comes into play (primarily if Evan is then lynched to flip second scum).

In no scenario do I wish Makaze to be lynched as of this moment based on my reads of him.

____________________________________________________________________________

I am aware of the post you made, Athena, while I was writing this post here and will be sure to express my thoughts at EoD 1 and their evolution in a follow up post for each player, these three included.

Saying that my reads day one were lackluster is completely correct. However it isn't anything scummy because as both alignments, I would have few detailed and caught up reads having only read half of the game. I have been making reads on the players who have been active with the exception of Fenrir who I plan to read overnight. As for the statement you quoted, that's not something I plan on using earlier or something I was using as an excuse. It's just the truth when looking at the current gamestate. There really isn't much content behind your read on me and most of your reasons are NAI or wrong.

And then there is this. Somehow, if I flip wolf, Fable is town BUT if Fable flips wolf I'm still a wolf AND Makaze is a wolf. So not only are you saying we are v/w and w/w at the same time, you are implying that Makaze has bussed both of his partners at some point in the game. That's terrible logic for what should be obvious reasons.

[Makaze]

2 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

Saying that my reads day one were lackluster is completely correct. However it isn't anything scummy because as both alignments, I would have few detailed and caught up reads having only read half of the game. I have been making reads on the players who have been active with the exception of Fenrir who I plan to read overnight. As for the statement you quoted, that's not something I plan on using earlier or something I was using as an excuse. It's just the truth when looking at the current gamestate. There really isn't much content behind your read on me and most of your reasons are NAI or wrong.

And then there is this. Somehow, if I flip wolf, Fable is town BUT if Fable flips wolf I'm still a wolf AND Makaze is a wolf. So not only are you saying we are v/w and w/w at the same time, you are implying that Makaze has bussed both of his partners at some point in the game. That's terrible logic for what should be obvious reasons.

Do you think Zeo is scummy based on his postings?

[EvanManManMan]

Oh my god he said that the flip order dictates his read. That's absolutely awful.

Pretty sure that Zeo is scum with Fable, due to somehow being resistant to call us v/w in a scenario where Fable is scum. He's basically making sure he still has my lynch available after fable flips scum while clearing fable if i flip scum. I'm staying on Fable for now but I will gladly consolidate.

[Bartozio]

5 minutes ago, athena_57 said:

I am unconvinced? Like, I get keeping reads to yourself is bad, but I don't think this is enough to make someone a top lynch candidate. Scumlean, sure, biggest scumread, no. 

Then I assume you're saying you can see this as bad town play?

Asking because I'm having trouble seeing it like that.

3 minutes ago, Zeonth said:

I do not dismiss the possibility of Fable and Evan as bussing, hence: Before *ylo, I would like to see Evan lynched (and first out of these three). If Evan flips town, I would read Fable as likely scum. If Evan flips mafia, then I would see Fable and Makaze as town. 

If Fable were to be lynched before Evan and he flips town, my scumread on Evan remains. If Fable is lynched first and flips mafia, my scumread on Evan remains (though, weakened)

Okay, we're good up till here.

3 minutes ago, Zeonth said:

The chances that they could be scum together is still there, just slightly less likely based on flip order. I view Evan as most likely scum, and so if he flips scum first, it detracts the idea that the others are. If Fable flips scum first, it doesn't take away the scumminess that Evan has shown, though the likelihood of two scum in the three is significantly lower.

okay, fair enough.

3 minutes ago, Zeonth said:

The possibility that Makaze can also be scum comes only after the other two flip scum. It's not at all a likely thing, but if they bussed once (fable/evan) then I will not dismiss the possibility that they triple bussed to throw town off in a *ylo situation. It's wifom, mostly. 

Okay, so are you saying that after Fable and Evan both flip scum, scum!Makaze becomes more or less likely?

Do you think a theorectical scum!Makaze is more likely to bus one buddy (say Makaze/Evan/notFable), instead of both his buddies (Makaze/Evan/Fable)?

I understand everything is possible, I want to know what you find more likely, cause it's confusing me.

[Zeonth]

2 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

Okay, so are you saying that after Fable and Evan both flip scum, scum!Makaze becomes more or less likely?

Do you think a theorectical scum!Makaze is more likely to bus one buddy (say Makaze/Evan/notFable), instead of both his buddies (Makaze/Evan/Fable)?

More likely. I believe the possibility of scum!makaze bussing both partners to be much higher than him bussing only one, assuming his buddies are both fable and evan. If fable and evan are not the same scum alignment, Makaze gets a much clearer townread from me. Assuming both fable and evan are townflips, my read on makaze becomes null, leaning town (for his previously mentioned town vibes in my read of him).

Does that clear things up?

[Mackc2]

Im here for about 5 minutes is it too late to vote to pressure zeo? 

[Zeonth]

 

1 minute ago, Mackc2 said:

Im here for about 5 minutes is it too late to vote to pressure zeo? 

I have 3 (plur) atm. Feel free if you need to. 

[Mackc2]

Sorry I don't have time right now I was just checking if my vote was still needed cause makaze pinged me while I was asleep 

[Mackc2]

Hey @Bartozio Why did you stop tunnelling Xand? Why did you then vote fable? And how do you feel about those two now? If you have already answered this feel free to ignore me 

[Mackc2]

And I would like specifics, such as what posts gave you your opinion of them and what about them. 

[Bartozio]

3 minutes ago, Zeonth said:

More likely. I believe the possibility of scum!makaze bussing both partners to be much higher than him bussing only one, assuming his buddies are both fable and evan. If fable and evan are not the same scum alignment, Makaze gets a much clearer townread from me. Assuming both fable and evan are townflips, my read on makaze becomes null, leaning town (for his previously mentioned town vibes in my read of him).

Does that clear things up?

It does, thank you.

54 minutes ago, Zeonth said:

I view it as almost impossible that all three are scum based on their history of interactions.

This is basicly a lie then, because Makaze being more likely scum when the other two flip scum directly contradicts with this.  (they're unlikely all 3 scum, but if two flip scum, the other is more likely scum.)

Also hard dissagree with the first quote in general, I doubt Makaze pushes both buddies the whole time (way too likely to lose both, and probably a scum pr in the process), but I could see one.

##Unvote

##Vote: @Zeonth

Please explain the inconsistency.

I seriously feel like lynching all 3 (Zeonth, Fable and Evan) now until we hit a town, but let me sit on this for a night on whether I'm being paranoid or not.

[Bartozio]

6 minutes ago, Mackc2 said:

Hey @Bartozio Why did you stop tunnelling Xand? Why did you then vote fable? And how do you feel about those two now? If you have already answered this feel free to ignore me 

Sorry, but I'm tired and I already quoted you in my wall (so it should be easy to find). If you feel like it's not in there, let me know and I'll reiterate, but I feel I explained it there.

If that covers it, please respond to my Fable case (more then "one liners are bad" please) in said wall and Zeonths inconsistency I just posted?

[Zeonth]

 

11 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

This is basicly a lie then, because Makaze being more likely scum when the other two flip scum directly contradicts with this.  (they're unlikely all 3 scum, but if two flip scum, the other is more likely scum.)

Also hard dissagree with the first quote in general, I doubt Makaze pushes both buddies the whole time (way too likely to lose both, and probably a scum pr in the process), but I could see one.

##Unvote

##Vote: @Zeonth

Please explain the inconsistency.

I seriously feel like lynching all 3 (Zeonth, Fable and Evan) now until we hit a town, but let me sit on this for a night on whether I'm being paranoid or not.

Almost impossible and impossible =/=. 

In my preferred scenario, Evan is lynched first and flips scum, detracting from a Fable scumread (which I would not push unless further evidence comes up). Even if Fable is lynched first, my scumread of Evan remains. I currently do not expect Fable to be lynched first or flip scum (but note my thoughts if he does). I also do not expect Makaze to be scum or to have bussed both partners based on my townread of him and would only view him as scum based on the flips of Evan and Fable being scum. My read on him is one of town unless other evidence comes up to contradict it (namely the alignments of fable and evan, who he has early and consistent history with).

 

 

13 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

I seriously feel like lynching all 3 (Zeonth, Fable and Evan) now until we hit a town, but let me sit on this for a night on whether I'm being paranoid or not.

1- Does this mean you now suspect me as scum with Evan and Fable and me to be bussing both my partners? 

2- If I flip town first, does that mean you townread Evan and Fable?

3- You lynch me based on this post before seeing my reads on the rest of the players. Are you hard sold on scum!zeo? 

[Iris]

Day 2: Automated Votals from #425 to #693

Zeonth (4): athena_57, Fenrir Aesir, Makaze, Bartozio
Fable (1): EvanManManMan
EvanManManMan (1): Fable
Bartozio (2): Junk, XnadrojX
Not voting (3): Mackc2, RADicate, Zeonth

Phase ends in 16h45m. Hammer at 8.

Vote history:

 

athena_57 (1): Zeonth

Bartozio (2): Fable -> Zeonth

EvanManManMan (1): Fable

Fable (1): EvanManManMan

Fenrir Aesir (1): Zeonth

Junk (1): Bartozio

Makaze (3): Zeonth -> EvanManManMan -> Zeonth

XnadrojX (1): Bartozio

<Beta v2.0.4>

Edited June 22, 2018 by Iris

[Fable]

[Fable]

Zeo probs village tbh.

That analysis felt really pure to me and I don't even see where the contradiction is? It's just pointing out a "how far deep does the rabbit hole go" in that world which is silly but not wolfy IMO. He's not even saying Mak is autowolf in that world just that it would have to be considered and I'm seeing a lot of overreactions to that which is interesting.  

[Fable]

All the shady votes from satsuma + evan there or willing to go there is lel btw. 

[Fable]

@Fenrir Aesir

I went back and looked at RAD again and didn't really get anything from it? His satsuma vote seemed to be a pressure vote and then he kinda left it alone and unvoted at EoD. I can maybe see a reason you would want me to look at it as "isn't it interesting RAD unvoted the runaway V wagon and didn't push anything else" which is the cynical way to look at it and think he did that to get out of accountability but not seeing it that way. I think he derped about EoD and didn't have time for that which is NAI. I guess if anything I would take issue that the satsuma vote was there for so long without him either pushing it or trying to push something else and shift somewhere but it's only a minor gripe. 

[Fable]

Bart repeatedly going after lhf and going for gotchas every chance he gets feels bad. Like I wouldn't say he's not solving but that solving lacks any sort of critical thinking and in place we get "well all wolves are obviously bad and the game is easy" which how can you remain dogmatic isn't that kind of approach after the satsuma lynch? I think it is the inflexibility that gets me with Bart he jumps to a conclusion and runs with it and the unwillingness to reevaluate is a huge ping for me. Like his case for me is the same case it was on d1....except it's d2 now and I (I mean I think at least) that I have started to find my groove a little and have started to contribute but no I didn't do that d1 (which again I said would happen) so I'm still a wolf. Also him agreeing with Zeo is lol because I don't think either of them know but Mak actually will bus in ??? scenarios so Zeo thinking that isn't unreasonable. Like Bart's push on Zeo is "I disagree with this person therefore he is wolf" which is not at all how this game works and is laughable as a reason to lynch someone. . 

[Fable]

5 hours ago, Bartozio said:

 

The shading is bad, but it reminds me of my previous game with Evan (where he was town). His cases don't seem that bad, although some are missinformed (you trying to cw Evan when Mak had more votes is odd, but you did indeed suspect his earlier).

It's like... his posts are bad, but they're better then last game, so I'm not really scumreading him for it?

 

 

2 hours ago, Bartozio said:

It does, thank you.

This is basicly a lie then, because Makaze being more likely scum when the other two flip scum directly contradicts with this.  (they're unlikely all 3 scum, but if two flip scum, the other is more likely scum.)

Also hard dissagree with the first quote in general, I doubt Makaze pushes both buddies the whole time (way too likely to lose both, and probably a scum pr in the process), but I could see one.

##Unvote

##Vote: @Zeonth

Please explain the inconsistency.

I seriously feel like lynching all 3 (Zeonth, Fable and Evan) now until we hit a town, but let me sit on this for a night on whether I'm being paranoid or not.

Also this stands out to me Because Bart isn't wolf reading Evan but wants to lynch him? 

@Bartozio Can you explain why Evan is listed here becuase you've only given him passes for his BS up until now (there is another post where that I didn't include between these two where you make an excuse for him V reading you but not doing anything to keep you from being lynched).