August Legendary Banner Expectations

[Johann]

NEXT MONTH'S THREAD:

Please use the most recent thread if you intend to make posts about future banners. Feel free to use this thread for analysis of trends, etc.

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Since we have a great number of tempting banners coming up, including the daily ones and potentially CYL2, I think I should get this thread underway as soon as I can.

CONFIRMABLE: The following heroes named are confirmed to return based on the notifications, leaving the last open slot for a red hero, as neither Ike or Ryoma will return.

• Fjorm
• Gunnthra
• Legendary Robin
• New Red Legendary Hero - See below for speculation and analysis on this hero.

SEASONALS: In the past, we'd get 4 seasonals, often 2 from varying banners, and never have we seen 2 of the same color from the same original banner (such as Spring Lucina + Spring Xander). However, the last two banners have given us only 3 seasonals. There could be a few reasons for this, such as getting in more regular banner heroes, slowing down the rate at which seasonals return, or even just the fact that the NY and Bridal banners only had 3 summonable heroes. Based on this, it's reasonable to assume that there may be just 3 seasonals in August as well.

• LA Hector - Extremely high odds due to being the remaining LA hero. Only thing that I would think they'd hold him off for is if they felt the need to put Grima (M) in the banner, due to both being armors with very valuable skills. We also still have quite a few green seasonals to get through before there's some balance. I highly doubt they'd put him off, especially since Legendary Hector will appear in September, and there's no freakin' way they'd put two Distant Counter fodder Hectors on the same banner.
• Spring Alfonse - Good odds, same as Sharena, especially considering they need to clear some of these green seasonals out. I'd expect one of them alongside Hector if they don't add in a normal pool green.
• Spring Sharena - Same as Alfonse. There is zero chance both her and Alfonse will be on the same banner though, so it's more like that there's very good odds of seeing one of them.
• Spring Catria - Very good odds, considering they seem to like putting in newer blues over older ones for some reason.
• Spring Kagero - Good odds, only colorless seasonal until summer returns. The lack of options on colorless kinda forces them to bring back old ones or throw in some seasonals.
• Bridal Tharja - Very low odds. Probably too early for the brides to appear, but she's the next seasonal red up, so if they surprise us with anybody, it'd be Tharja.
• Bridal Sanaki - Not gonna happen, due to the other seasonals waiting in the wings ahead of her.
• Bridal Ninian - Extremely low odds due to Catria and the greens needing to appear first.

REGULAR 5★ HEROES: A tricky thing to predict, but in theory it should be 4 or 5 units, some of which are rather recent.

• Brave Roy - Very good odds. Next in line after Sigurd for a reappearance from non-seasonals. Roy is also the only CYL1 hero not to make a reappearance on Legendary banners.
• Reinhardt (sword) - Pretty low odds, main competition being Brave Roy. While he would be the next red hero by release, having two powerful sword cavalry on the same banner seems unlikely to me.
• Lene - Pretty good odds. She comes after Reinhardt chronologically, but Lief showed that they don't seem to mind that. Arguably, Azura's appearance in July suggests that 5★ dancers may get a little more attention too.
• Fallen Robin (M) - Decent odds. The only non-seasonal green I could envision getting on the banner, unless they skip him and go to Olwen. However, we still have some green seasonals to get through, and I'm not sure if they'd put him on a banner with Hector due to both being powerful units with highly desirable skills.
• Olwen (green tome) - Very low odds, if only because she's got competition from the seasonals, Robin, and the fact that with Gunnthra, we'd have two green cavalry mages on the same banner. They seem to like some diversity in weapon/movement types when possible.
• Brave Lucina - Good odds. Brave Lyn's 3rd appearance in July shows they're really ok with bringing CYL characters back again and again, and that they aren't on the same kind of rotation as other 5★ units.
• Ninian - Decent odds, given how she'd follow-up Azura as not only a dancer, but as a Hero Fest character as well. However, I'm not so sure they'd put both her and Lene on the same banner, and red seems a little more predictable this time around.
• Nephenee - Decent odds, another Hero Fest character, and while she got her Hero Fest appearance after Ninian, she's not a dancer.
• Sumia - Very low odds. She is the newest 5★ blue after Ishtar, but they've only just added her. It's also technically possible she'll be demoted, though that seems extremely unlikely.
• Shiro - Possible, he'd be the first normal blue hero (excluding Brave Lucina) to make a reappearance on a Legendary banner.
• Other blues - Hard to say at this point, only other significant blue I can think of beyond the ones I've listed that haven't appeared yet would be Hinoka.
• Takumi - Good odds, previous colorless have made reappearances, Takumi and Faye are next in line. While I think certain rare skills like Close Counter are taken into consideration when they make a banner, I don't think the other potential colorless heroes have anything that would make it "too good" of a pool.
• Faye - Same as Takumi.
• Mirabelle - Very low odds. Like Sumia, she seems too new, though she is the newest 5★ colorless since Hinoka, who just appeared.
• Jaffar - Zero chance, I just wanted to include him here as he's the next colorless unit in line after Takumi and Faye. He's also the last one before they started the cycle over again.

MY PREDICTED LIST: This is my own guess based on everything above.

• New Red Legendary Hero (Red Tome?)
• Brave Roy
• Lene
• Gunnthra
• LA Hector
• Spring Sharena
• Fjorm
• Spring Catria
• Brave Lucina
• Legendary Robin
• Takumi
• Faye

WHO'S THAT POKEMON NEW HERO? Oh boy, red has got to be the hardest color to predict. There are countless sword heroes, darkness tomes, dragons, and even red bows are a possibility. Will the 2 girls > 2 guys trend continue? I'll let you guys go crazy predicting the character themselves, but here's what I think regarding unit types and elements:

• Element - While we know it won't be Wind, Earth and Water are a little less likely since we have heroes of those elements for red (though, as Lyn showed, this is not a hard rule). Going by the calendar, the week this character is released WILL be Fire season, regardless of whether the hero is Fire themselves.
• Swords - I would expect a sword user be Fire, since we already have Water and Earth sword users. This could potentially be someone like Roy, who is of course a very strong candidate due to his popularity, or perhaps Eirika, who could (in theory) work well with Ephraim. If we do get a sword user who is water or earth, I'd expect them to have a different movement type than Ike or Ryoma. The Muspell sisters and Hrid are also sword users, though Hrid would certainly not be Fire.
• Red Tomes - Dark tomes, fire tomes, there are a lot of possibilities here, and does help diversify the red legendaries a bit. With Lucina and Lyn, they've shown they're not afraid to branch out from a character's default weaponry, too, so while there are canonically a ton of sword users, they don't mind playing with the rules. I'm kind of expecting a red tome, especially if it's someone like Celica.
• Red Bows - I'm not sure we'd see a red bow hero just after getting a blue one. Color bows seem like a cop-out to me still. I wouldn't rule it out for October though.
• Red Dragons - Plenty of dragons to pick from for final bosses and other major characters. I don't expect a secondary character like, say, Kurthnaga though.

FUTURE ANALYSIS: Unconfirmed but likely heroes will be italicized, based on the banner notes:

• September: Ike, Hector, Robin, New Blue Hero
• October: Ephraim, Lyn, Robin, New Red Hero
• November: Ryoma, Lucina, either a green or colorless hero
• We just might have 4 heroes of each color (except colorless) before Robin sits a banner out
• It will be curious to see if they return to having 4 seasonals on a banner again. This shift is changing the way we can predict these banners, and I'd almost think it's a long-term one if it happens a 3rd time in a row.
• Whenever CYL2 heroes come out, I wouldn't expect them on these banners until like November, but that's just a wild guess based on when original CYL and Legendary banners occurred.

Previous threads:

• June Banner Expectations
• July Banner Expectations

Edited August 30, 2018 by Johann

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I feel like it's gonna be either Marth or Hrid. Marth because it'll be so close to CYL 2 and it might be something akin to going along with that. Marth as a red fire hero boosting resistance is something I could see, and seems somewhat likely. Hrid just because both Fjorm and Gunthra are returning, so family reunion?

[Rafiel's Aria]

Red is probably the most difficult spot to predict since there are so many characters. XD If they continue the M/M/F/F trend, then we're going to have another lady. And fire does seem like the most likely element... For ladies who could possibly be red, there's Celica, Eirika, F. Corrin (with Yato), and maybe Lilina or Caeda (throwing them in just because I feel like if Ryoma can get it, she probably can too). The problem is, of those ladies, only  Celica and Lilina stick out as potential fire units. (Then again...I'm not sure what Lucina has to do with wind...) Another red Celica so close to CYL's release is...pretty dirty.... But it's difficult imagining Eirika sharing an element with her brother since their gimmick is their opposite approach to things. And F. Corrin would likely lean towards water. 

I know people are pushing for Hrid...and sure he's already had more screen time than Gunnthra, but we do have two sword ladies (and a ton of other OCs who could probably be legendary heroes before him) from the fire kingdom. I think that Laevatainn might have a pretty good chance of getting the spot. But I suppose it depends on how the next story chapter unfolds... 

[Interdimensional Observer]

The strict enduring pattern so far would make the next Red Female OC/lord right? Well Eirika fits this, as does Forrin. And transXander.

If we break the gender aspect, Hrid, Marth, or Roy would work. Marth would finally put a representative in for Archanea, and Roy is Smash FE6. Red Bow Alm is another choice and adds Valentian representation. I think Eliwood/Chrom, if they should be Legended, go the Lance route since Blue Legends options aren't many. I have similar if not so definite feelings for Sigurd, Seliph, and Leif.

Micaiah as Red Tome, although a 0.00001% chance here, wouldn't be impossible if she channeled Yune the Goddess of Chaos to attack. Make the "tome" Lehran's Medallion. Chaos and Darkness are interlinked like Light and Order in Tellius, it'd work.

[Tybrosion]

The legendary will probably be another damn sword, but I would love it if they followed up legendary Hector with legendary Lilina as a red tome armor.

[Diovani Bressan]

1 hour ago, Johann said:

FUTURE ANALYSIS: Unconfirmed but likely heroes will be italicized, based on the banner notes:

• September: Ike, Hector, Robin, New Blue Hero
• October: Ephraim, Lyn, Robin, New Red Hero
• November: Ryoma, Lucina, either a green or colorless hero
• We just might have 4 heroes of each color (except colorless) before Robin sits a banner out
• It will be curious to see if they return to having 4 seasonals on a banner again. This shift is changing the way we can predict these banners, and I'd almost think it's a long-term one if it happens a 3rd time in a row.
• Whenever CYL2 heroes come out, I wouldn't expect them on these banners until like November, but that's just a wild guess based on when original CYL and Legendary banners occurred.

I don't believe IS would release Hríd as Legendary Hero before the CYL 2, so we can easily see him as the October Legendary Hero. I also don't believe it will be a sword hero, because Hríd has a sword. 4 sword heroes? Meh. Maybe a Red Archer, but two archers in a row? Meh again. My hopes are for a red tome hero, with res bonus... but please no Legendary Celica!

Spoiler

Yune possessing Micaiah could be a good option as red mage legendary hero.

 

[Midnox]

I don't care who it might be, but about time we get a water LH

[NekoKnight]

If we assume the gender pattern holds, my money would be on F!Nohrrin or Celica (Maybe improved Ragnorok so vanilla Celica can get a better weapon). If anyone is fair game, Marth or Bow Alm would be reasonable choices. Hrid is an option but he seems so unnecessary in the story.

In my heart of hearts, I pray for Laegjarn, with Laevetein's sword.

[NSSKG151]

After thinking about it for a while and assuming August's legendary hero will be female my guesses are between Eirika and (Female) Corrin.

Haven't played Sacred Stones but to my understanding Eirika and Ephraim are both supposedly the main character of their game so it doesn't seem right that one gets a legendary without the other. Eirika also seems to be a very popular lord if both CYL polls are anything to go by as she did rank high if both of them (6th in CYL1, 4th in CYL2). I can see her wielding a new Sieglinde on a horse like her canon promotion and I guess she would have lunar brace to mirror her brother. I'll take a guess and say she would have the water element and boost res for her bonus.

Corrin is my other guess who is probably bound to get a legendary eventually. Corrin could realistically be any type of red unit due to the Nohrian Noble class using all three of those weapons (Sword, Dragonstone, and Tomes). Honestly wouldn't mind seeing them making up a fire or dark tome for Corrin to use with their artwork having them in their Nohrian Noble class(my preferred class for Corrin) though if they really wanted to screw with us they could make her a red bow and handwave it as Takumi teaching her how to use one (their support in Fates does have Takumi teaching Corrin how to use a bow). Corrin's element would obviously be water though I don't know what stats she would boost, probably not attack though.

Celica is another possibility for red but I doubt they would release a legendary of her with CYL2 units coming soon. Kind of don't want to see the backlash that would ensue from that. If they break the gender pattern and it ends up being male for August the most likely options are Roy (fire element), Hrid (I'm guessing earth element for him) or Alm (could be fire or earth element) though I am actually expecting one of them to show up in October.

[Ae†her]

So we're due for a red legendary hero then right? In that case I hope it's Legendary Seliph with Wind Blessing, but that's probably very unlikely. Though I say Seiph deserves it, he's the only main FE protag other than Sigurd to not have an alt, and unlike Sigurd his stats are mediocre and his regular Tyrfing has no good refine yet nor is it good in general. Seliph just deserves it imo even if he's not popular. Also you can always make him popular like Reinhardt and Sigurd by giving him some game-breaking skills that people will meme about.

[TheWill]

I'm sure they'd choose Alfonse over Shareena due to Green being desirable thanks to Distant Counter alone. 

A lot of people assumed Lilina would join Lissa and Lyn (both desirable/popular), so I think it's pretty likely they'd "save" Shareena for a time where the other greens aren't too stacked. 

[Vaximillian]

57 minutes ago, NekoKnight said:

Celica

Alts galore. This will bring Celica up to four versions considering CYL.

17 minutes ago, SlipperySlippy said:

Shareena

You spelt Alfonse’s name correctly, yet out an extraneous e in the name of his sister. This makes me sad.

[Johann]

25 minutes ago, Ae†her said:

So we're due for a red legendary hero then right? In that case I hope it's Legendary Seliph with Wind Blessing, but that's probably very unlikely.

It could be Seliph, but if it is, he wouldn't be wind-- they always touch on all 4 elements before using one again, so the next 3 Legendary heroes have to be Water, Earth, and Fire in some order that we can't verify right now.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Hm, I would really like it if it was Eliwood. I wouldn’t mind Hríd either.  

[Humanoid]

Green's going to be stacked either way, so I feel the Alfonse/Sharena order will be pretty arbitrary. I'll assume Vector must run this month to avoid double-Hector next month, so assuming for a moment that we're pretty certain of Gunnthra + Vector, we either double up on a cavalry, or double up on a tome. Grima is a distant third choice because we assume they'll want to split up the siblings. I lean towards Alfonse first if only to ensure there's one female unit each month.

Legendary Palla / Swordhardt / Lyn

Fjorm / Linde / Hinoka

Gunnthra / Vector / Spring Alfonse

F Grima / Spring Kagero / Faye

 

Then to follow up because why not:

Ike / Lene / Bride Tharja

Legendary Oscar / Ephraim / Spring Catria

Hector / M Grima / Sharena

F Grima / Jaffar / Genny

 

Let's go deeper:

Legendary Gregor / Karla / Leo

Ephraim / Bride Ninian / Delthea

Lyn / F Kana / Sanaki

F Grima / Maribelle / Noire

[Johann]

1 hour ago, SlipperySlippy said:

I'm sure they'd choose Alfonse over Shareena due to Green being desirable thanks to Distant Counter alone. 

Considering August will likely have LA Hector, and September will have Legendary Hector, they're both extremely likely to appear alongside a Hector alt.

[NekoKnight]

59 minutes ago, Vaximillian said:

Alts galore. This will bring Celica up to four versions considering CYL.

I don't know why people are fussed by alts on Legendary banners. These have always been alts of main characters until Ryoma or OCs. If ire towards excessive alts should be directed anywhere, it should be permanent banner alts or too many seasonals.

Edited August 1, 2018 by NekoKnight

[Vaximillian]

1 minute ago, NekoKnight said:

I don't know why people are fussed by alts on Legendary banners. These have always been alts of main characters until Ryoma or OCs. If it towards excessive alts should be directed anywhere, it should be permanent banner alts or too many seasonals.

“Legendary” heroes shoud have been OCs—as they started out—or actual legends. But if they oh so absolutely must include alts of already existing characters, why not those who yet don’t have alts? Four Hectors are still four Hectors. Four Lucinas are still four Lucinas. Five Lyns are still five Lyns, no matter where the alts are placed.

[Florete]

Guessing the new hero:

• I don't think the gender pattern will break, so female is likely.
• So far, no character has both a legendary alt and an (non-brave) alt in the standard summoning pool. I think this trend will be kept, so Celica, Eirika, and Hinoka are out. (And Olwen, Nino, and Olivia, but I would never expect them to get legendary alts in the first place)
• I think it won't be a sword since we have two already. They didn't triple up on lances before giving us a new weapon, and I believe swords will hold.

Given the above...there aren't many options. Female Nohr Noble Corrin with a red tome is probably my best guess. Young Tiki (red dragon...again) is plausible. I could see them go a bit more wild again and give Micaiah Balberith (and put Pelleas fans on suicide watch). There really just aren't many candidates.

Wait, I got it...Red Bow Anna.

[NekoKnight]

19 minutes ago, Vaximillian said:

“Legendary” heroes shoud have been OCs—as they started out—or actual legends.

I don't disagree with this.

19 minutes ago, Vaximillian said:

But if they oh so absolutely must include alts of already existing characters, why not those who yet don’t have alts? Four Hectors are still four Hectors. Four Lucinas are still four Lucinas. Five Lyns are still five Lyns, no matter where the alts are placed.

There are definitely some better choices for Legendaries they could have made. Marth should have been the first. Ike is fine as his older self (who was certainly renown by RD). Ephraim (or Eirika) is fine. Robin and Chrom are the Awakening lords but they already have a number of alts, but excluding them or Lucina would mean no Awakening rep. Eliwood would have been a better choice than Lyn, but sadly he isn't as popular. Hector would have the same amount of alts as Eliwood if he was chosen by CYL (which was likely decided after both Hector alts were planned), so I can't criticize his inclusion. Corrin would be better than Ryoma for Fates.

In summary, not everyone in the Legendary category should be there, but in the case of some characters, notably Awakening's,  they didn't have a choice in choosing an underrepresented lord.

Edit: I'm definitely open to other games getting reps in there, like Jugdral, Archanea and SoV.

Edited August 1, 2018 by NekoKnight

[Johann]

Something just occurred to me-- the elements have shifted through a sort of cycle, starting in a new spot and going in any direction:

Nothing revelatory about that, but if that cycle holds into the next 3 months, then we'd get:

• Either an Earth or Water hero in August, giving us our second red for either element.
• After that, it would mean that the September hero would be our second blue Fire.
• October's expected red hero would be the second red hero of which element the August hero wasn't between Earth and Water.

So, 3 heroes of already existing color/element combos in a row if that cycle holds up. Under those circumstances, I would expect that none of them would use swords or a lance, as they'd end up matching their predecessors (Ike, Ryoma, and Ephraim). Regardless of the elements possibly playing out that way, I'd like to think that they're planning a more diverse selection of weapons for these upcoming heroes anyway.

[Lord-Zero]

You people keep mentioning heroes but since F!Grima became a thing, the next legendary could be a villain as well. If that’s the case, Legendary Arvis as an armored mage, Legendary Jahn or Idunn, Ashnard, Legendary Zephiel, Legendary Sumeragi or Mikoto. Screw the “pattern” that has been broken before. 

[Johann]

12 minutes ago, Lord-Zero said:

You people keep mentioning heroes but since F!Grima became a thing, the next legendary could be a villain as well. If that’s the case, Legendary Arvis as an armored mage, Legendary Jahn or Idunn, Ashnard, Legendary Zephiel, Legendary Sumeragi or Mikoto. Screw the “pattern” that has been broken before. 

Idunn is one of the most probable antagonist characters we'd see be a legendary hero, in my opinion. She'd be a very suitable colorless dragon too, if they want to actually more colorless units.

Edited August 1, 2018 by Johann

[Mackc2]

The next legendary hero still isn't colourless? The inequality here is incredibly annoying, colourless had the greatest potential to actually be interesting 

[Hilda]

I hope they break their ruling and that we get Hrid. If not Hrid then please Marth. I really would like to have more OC playable characters...