fe8 FE8 auction #4: Seth enters the Matrix

[JudgeWargrave]

Next up, we have Sacred Stones round 2, and Seth is out on probation (useable from chapter 6 onward). Furthermore, the secondary lord and Myrrh are not free; each will be joining only one team as well. This means the final team sizes will be smaller by 1.25 on average (Lord + Tethys + 7.75 =9.75 as opposed to 2 Lords + Tethys + Myrrh + 7 = 11), but final teams of size 11 generally have filler anyway. Plus I never saw a unit I didn't want to crowd source ratings to input into a computer that outputs a number to tell me how good they are. Except dancers, they dynamically change the value of other units too much. But I don't see why everyone should require Ephraim and Myrrh.

Oh, and no free rides for trainees in the Tower: if you suck, your presence on a team will not be subsidized.

I disallowed some undrafted unit behavior that is normally allowed, like shopping, trading around equipped items on drafted units, picking up NPCs, etc. If anyone thinks this is too restrictive I'd be open to changing my mind. They can still dig up desert items though; blocking that would just create more quasi-mandatory RNG abuse.

Team structure:

1a. There will be four players.
1b. There are 31 units to assign. One team will have 7 units; the other three will have 8.

2. All teams may use:
  a. The main lord, (Ephraim counts as the main lord for 5x)
  b. Tethys,
  c. Orson,
  d. The secondary lord for 8 and 15.

3. If assigned, Seth may only be used starting chapter 6.

Rules:

1. The game will be played on Hard Mode.

2a. Unassigned units may move, recruit units, rescue/drop unassigned units, trade between chapters, and dig up items in the desert.
2b. Unassigned units may not do anything else, including but not limited to enter combat, use items, trade/merch mid-chapter, visit (any building), rescue/drop assigned units or NPCs, steal, pick, or build Supports.
2c. Assigned units may do as they please without penalty.

3. Defend chapters count the last played Player Phase for turns if the timer is waited out.

4. Map shopping is allowed.

5. Do not enter avoidable skirmishes, the Tower, or Ruins. Unavoidable skirmishes must be immediately fled from.
5*. Tower is NOT allowed for Amelia or Ewan

Penalties:

1. You may use an unassigned unit as assigned unit with a 4 turn penalty, per unit per chapter.
1*. There is NO special penalty for Seth.

 

The bidding system has been upgraded with new, fancy number crunching and lots of matrices (hence the thread title). Check out the attached pdf for a thorough explanation and the txt files for how the system would have worked on the past auctions. Here is the github repo for the code that executes the auction. It isn't required reading though, just bidding as in the previous rounds should be fine. It's not like you need an html tutorial to use this website after all.

SHA256 of my bids: C704068DE12BFB256C60A9AEC85AD403BBDEB8E0880D0C1916AED00515CC4ABE

Send your bids in a PM like in the spoiler. These numbers are the median bids from the first FE8 auction, which also allowed Tower training, so don't just blindly copy (or do, I'm not your boss). There's also one empty team slot which will automatically be entered as a bid of zero for everyone.

I was also wondering about using two bids per unit, one for each route. I'm not implementing that this time, but what do you think of the idea? It seems like you only go Ephraim route if you get Cormag, but that still leaves one team that potentially is misrated.

Spoiler

Franz		10.47
Gilliam		5.37
Vanessa		11.11
Moulder		3.45
Ross		3.44
Garcia		5.47
Neimi		1.58
Colm		2.55
Artur		7.75
Lute		4.85
Natasha		3.05
Joshua		2.93
Seth>=6		?
Forde		3.7
Kyle		4.66
Tana		6.98
Amelia		1.05
Gerik		3.07
Innes		1.56
Marisa		0.06
Dozla		1.83
L'Arachel	1
Saleh		5.46
Ewan		0.35
Cormag		2.99
Rennac		1.22
Duessel		1.55
Knoll		1.53
2nd Lord	?
Myrrh		?
Syrene		0.77

 

 

feAuctionDoc.pdf

fe8output.txt

fe7Aoutput.txt

fe7Boutput.txt

[Sturm]

In, sent you my bids.

Regarding some of the rules:

I'm fine with not allowing unassigned units to trade and shop etc if only to see what sort of difference it makes, everyone's in the same boat so I don't see a problem though I know i'm gong to regret saying this because it will inevitably mess up some strategy, i can just tell.

I'm pretty sure Ephraim and Myrrh are free simply to make the number of unit's divisible by the number of players and those are the most obvious candidates to make free because of their unique nature, otherwise you would just end up with Marisa and whatever other scrub nobody wants free for everyone but for this style I'd agree it's not necessary. 

Even without tower Ewan is probably still better than Marisa.

Seth free by Chapter 6 seems early to me, I mean it doesn't matter because you have to pay for him but I would have thought maybe Chapter 8/9 would make more sense?

Regarding the route split that's the biggest difficulty I feel, as you say the only reason to go Epharim's route is Cormag and maybe Duessel if you get a lacklustre team which in itself is not a problem because you just take that route, it's fine as long as you have Cormag. The problem lies in if you get certain combinations of characters the most notable being Cormag and Saleh/Lute, because Eirka!Cormag sucks and Ephraim!Saleh sucks so you're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Lute is in a bad position because Tethys doesn't show up till later on Ephraim's route and you also don't get a Guiding Ring until later unless you get the one by visiting all the houses in Joshua's join map, so it's harder, though not impossible, to reach A Staves in time, Artur has Bishop so it's less of a problem for him. Those are the big ones but even getting something like Cormag/Gerik or Duessel/Saleh is not good. Maybe you could add some kind of negative weighting that would reduce the chance of getting certain unit combinations though it's not a simple case of just looking at their promotion items or when they join so I don't know what sort of value to put on that.

I'll read though the documents tomorrow, haven't slept in about 30 hours and it's 1am already.

 

 

[DarthR0xas]

Well, color me interested. I've never really done a draft, much less an auction draft before, so this is all a little overwhelming. I will try to get my bids pm'ed soon, but needless to say, I'll need to figure out the system first.

[AnonymousSpeed]

1 hour ago, DarthR0xas said:

Well, color me interested. I've never really done a draft, much less an auction draft before, so this is all a little overwhelming. I will try to get my bids pm'ed soon, but needless to say, I'll need to figure out the system first.

I am similarly interested. A run like this sounds like a good challenge but I don't even have experience with drafting. Still, if you don't mind having 50+% of your players being new to this then I'd like to participate. Is there any range for values to bet? Is it the turn handicap?

I've submitted bids based on the above assumption.

Edited August 12, 2018 by AnonymousSpeed

[JudgeWargrave]

Thanks folks, bids all received, give me a bit to input them and format the output.

13 hours ago, Sturm said:

Seth free by Chapter 6 seems early to me, I mean it doesn't matter because you have to pay for him but I would have thought maybe Chapter 8/9 would make more sense?

Chapter 9 would be a natural time because of the route split and you can start promoting other units around then, my philosophy was, as long as Seth isn't the most highly bidded unit, he can't really be called overcentralizing, so I wanted to push him back a bit and see what happens. I didn't want to pick a join time that would make him middle of the pack, I wanted one that would make him slightly worse than the best unit, since it doesn't make sense to handicap him more than that; if so, it would be inconsistent to not also handicap Vanessa.

13 hours ago, Sturm said:

Maybe you could add some kind of negative weighting that would reduce the chance of getting certain unit combinations though it's not a simple case of just looking at their promotion items or when they join so I don't know what sort of value to put on that.

Yeah, it's tricky. I thought about doing something purely with the difference in join time between routes, like scaling Saleh's value proportional to the number of chapters he is present on each route, which isn't quite accurate, but requires no additional work from the bidders, and is at least closer to the truth than ignoring the route split. A more accurate way is the bidders choose for themselves how Saleh's value changes and submit two values for him, but that complicates things and I didn't want to add too much in one iteration. There's also the fact that Tethys isn't bid on at all, but has different join times. We'll see how things go.

11 hours ago, AnonymousSpeed said:

Still, if you don't mind having 50+% of your players being new to this then I'd like to participate.

New blood is much appreciated. Rather it's necessary, the number of non-new people to this form of draft is not much more than single digits!

11 hours ago, AnonymousSpeed said:

Is there any range for values to bet? Is it the turn handicap?

Correct, specifically the handicap given a team with average total value. Handicaps are adjusted toward average, slightly down for above average teams and slightly up for below average teams. If a team contains 50% of the total of your bids (a pretty unlikely distribution of value, but just for example), it will be evaluated as if it actually saves turns equal to 40% of the total, to account for redundant capabilities. This is because past experience shows teams of mostly good units have a harder time erasing their handicap than they probably should.

[JudgeWargrave]

OK, here we go!

My bid string for SHA256 check: "Franz 11.0, Gilliam 6.5, Vanessa 13.0, Moulder 5.5, Ross 4.0, Garcia 5.5, Neimi 2.0, Colm 3.0, Artur 8.0, Lute 6.0, Natasha 3.5, Joshua 2.5, Seth>=6 9.5, Forde 6.0, Kyle 6.0, Tana 8.0, Amelia 0.0, Gerik 2.0, Innes 1.0, Marisa 0.0, Dozla 2.0, L'Arachel 1.0, Saleh 3.5, Ewan 0.0, Cormag 3.0, Rennac 0.3, Duessel 1.0, Knoll 0.8, 2nd Lord 1.0, Myrrh 1.0, Syrene 1.0"

Bids

Spoiler

-BIDS-
           Wargrave   Sturm      DarthR0xas AnonymousS 
Franz       11.00      10.00       9.83       7.50     
Gilliam      6.50       6.00       1.47       1.00     
Vanessa     13.00      12.00       3.94      12.00     
Moulder      5.50       3.00       7.50       7.50     
Ross         4.00       5.00       4.68       4.00     
Garcia       5.50       6.00       3.50       5.50     
Neimi        2.00       3.50       2.01       3.00     
Colm         3.00       2.00      10.19       3.00     
Artur        8.00       9.00       5.48       8.00     
Lute         6.00       9.00      11.11       4.00     
Natasha      3.50       1.50       7.50       2.50     
Joshua       2.50       2.00       5.00       3.50     
Seth>=6      9.50       9.00      16.39       9.00     
Forde        6.00       5.50       0.59       4.00     
Kyle         6.00       6.00       1.88       7.80     
Tana         8.00       9.00       8.03       8.00     
Amelia       0.00       2.00       1.50       0.00     
Gerik        2.00       6.50       3.50       6.50     
Innes        1.00       1.50       4.24       3.80     
Marisa       0.00       0.01       0.03       0.00     
Dozla        2.00       1.50       1.01       2.00     
L'Arachel    1.00       1.00       5.50       0.00     
Saleh        3.50       7.00       3.00       7.00     
Ewan         0.00       0.25       0.01       0.50     
Cormag       3.00       9.00       6.47       2.00     
Rennac       0.30       0.50       2.59       1.00     
Duessel      1.00       2.00       4.79       0.00     
Knoll        0.80       1.50       3.56       0.00     
2nd Lord     1.00       2.00       6.82       2.00     
Myrrh        1.00       1.50       5.98       4.00     
Syrene       1.00       1.50       5.00       2.00     
BLANK        0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00     
-------------------------------------------------------
raw sums   117.60     136.26     153.10     121.10     
max unrestricted satisfaction: 90.6466666667

 

Question for R0xas, did your Colm and Vanessa bids end up swapped around? If so I can swap them and run it again, if not carry on. In fact, everyone should just check that I input the bids correctly, especially Sturm because your bids came in sorted by bid not recruitment order, so I may have messed up getting each number in the right row. I'll continue assuming everything is correct for now.

Edit: Yes those bids did end up swapped, deleting everything that came after this and re-running, hopefully Sturm doesn't come in with a correction as well, lol.

Allocation

Spoiler

Initial unoptimized teams

Wargrave      V                         item   chapter
Franz      ~11.00~ 10.00   9.83   7.50  Kgt C   1  Escape!
Gilliam    ~ 6.50~  6.00   1.47   1.00  Kgt C   1  Escape!
Vanessa    ~13.00~ 12.00  10.19  12.00  eWhip   2  The Protected
Forde      ~ 6.00~  5.50   0.59   4.00  Kgt C   8  It's a Trap!
Rennac     ~ 0.30~  0.50   2.59   1.00         14A Queen of White Dune
Knoll      ~ 0.80~  1.50   3.56   0.00  gRing  15  Scorched Sand
Syrene     ~ 1.00~  1.50   5.00   2.00         17  River of Regrets
BLANK      ~ 0.00~  0.00   0.00   0.00         21  Sacred Stones
Raw sums:   38.60  37.00  33.23  27.50 
HANDICAP:  2.68

Sturm                V                  item   chapter
Ross         4.00 ~ 5.00~  4.68   4.00  Ocean   2  The Protected
Garcia       5.50 ~ 6.00~  3.50   5.50  Hero    2  The Protected
Neimi        2.00 ~ 3.50~  2.01   3.00  oBolt   3  The Bandits of Borg
Artur        8.00 ~ 9.00~  5.48   8.00  gRing   4  Ancient Horrors
Amelia       0.00 ~ 2.00~  1.50   0.00  Kgt C   9A Distant Blade 9B Fo
Gerik        2.00 ~ 6.50~  3.50   6.50  Hero   10A Revolt at Carcino 1
Saleh        3.50 ~ 7.00~  3.00   7.00         12A Village of Silence 
Cormag       3.00 ~ 9.00~  6.47   2.00  eWhip  13A Hamill Canyon 13B F
Raw sums:   28.00  48.00  30.14  36.00 
HANDICAP:  7.14

DarthR0xas                  V           item   chapter
Colm         3.00   2.00 ~ 3.94~  3.00  Ocean   3  The Bandits of Borg
Lute         6.00   9.00 ~11.11~  4.00  gRing   4  Ancient Horrors
Natasha      3.50   1.50 ~ 7.50~  2.50  gRing   5  The Empire's Reach
Joshua       2.50   2.00 ~ 5.00~  3.50  Hero    5  The Empire's Reach
Seth>=6      9.50   9.00 ~16.39~  9.00          6  Victims of War
L'Arachel    1.00   1.00 ~ 5.50~  0.00  gRing  11A Creeping Darkness 1
Duessel      1.00   2.00 ~ 4.79~  0.00         15  Scorched Sand
2nd Lord     1.00   2.00 ~ 6.82~  2.00  Heven  16  Ruled by Madness
Raw sums:   27.50  28.50  61.05  24.00 
HANDICAP: 11.77

AnonymousS                         V    item   chapter
Moulder      5.50   3.00   7.50 ~ 7.50~ gRing   2  The Protected
Kyle         6.00   6.00   1.88 ~ 7.80~ Kgt C   8  It's a Trap!
Tana         8.00   9.00   8.03 ~ 8.00~ eWhip   9A Distant Blade 9B Fo
Innes        1.00   1.50   4.24 ~ 3.80~        10A Revolt at Carcino 1
Marisa       0.00   0.01   0.03 ~ 0.00~ Hero   10A Revolt at Carcino 1
Dozla        2.00   1.50   1.01 ~ 2.00~        11A Creeping Darkness 1
Ewan         0.00   0.25   0.01 ~ 0.50~ gRing  12A Village of Silence 
Myrrh        1.00   1.50   5.98 ~ 4.00~        16  Ruled by Madness
Raw sums:   23.50  22.76  28.68  33.60 
HANDICAP:  0.00

current score: 62.22 
optimizing swaps

Swapping: Sturm      Garcia <-> Tana       AnonymousS
new score: 62.68 

Swapping: AnonymousS Garcia <-> Gerik      Sturm     
new score: 63.49 

Swapping: Sturm      Garcia <-> Knoll      Wargrave  
new score: 63.62 

Swapping: DarthR0xas Colm <-> Rennac       Wargrave  
new score: 65.09 

Swapping: DarthR0xas Lute <-> Knoll        Sturm     
new score: 66.06 

Swapping: DarthR0xas Joshua <-> Syrene     Wargrave  
new score: 67.54 

Swapping: AnonymousS Marisa <-> BLANK      Wargrave  
new score: 67.54 
one swap pass

Swapping: Wargrave   Colm <-> Dozla        AnonymousS
new score: 67.58 

Swapping: Wargrave   Joshua <-> Ewan       AnonymousS
new score: 67.90 

Swapping: AnonymousS Gerik <-> Saleh       Sturm     
new score: 68.01 

Swapping: Wargrave   Marisa <-> BLANK      AnonymousS
new score: 68.01 
one swap pass

Swapping: AnonymousS Colm <-> Ewan         Wargrave  
new score: 68.43 
one swap pass

Swapping: Wargrave   Colm <-> Marisa       AnonymousS
new score: 68.48 
one swap pass

couldn't improve allocation

current score: 68.48 
optimizing permutations

Swapping: 1 Wargrave   Garcia     -> 2 Sturm     
Swapping: 2 Sturm      Lute       -> 3 DarthR0xas
Swapping: 3 DarthR0xas Rennac     -> 4 AnonymousS
Swapping: 4 AnonymousS Colm       -> 1 Wargrave  
new score: 68.50 

current score: 68.50 
optimizing swaps

Swapping: Sturm      Gerik <-> Saleh       AnonymousS
new score: 68.56 
one swap pass

couldn't improve allocation

Swapping: 2 Sturm      Saleh      -> 4 AnonymousS
Swapping: 3 DarthR0xas Lute       -> 2 Sturm     
Swapping: 4 AnonymousS Joshua     -> 3 DarthR0xas
new score: 68.70 

current score: 68.70 
optimizing swaps

Swapping: DarthR0xas Joshua <-> Rennac     AnonymousS
new score: 68.77 
one swap pass

couldn't improve allocation

permute pass

couldn't improve allocation by rotation

 

Final Teams

Spoiler

Wargrave      V                         item   chapter
Franz      ~11.00~ 10.00   9.83   7.50  Kgt C   1  Escape!
Gilliam    ~ 6.50~  6.00   1.47   1.00  Kgt C   1  Escape!
Vanessa    ~13.00~ 12.00  10.19  12.00  eWhip   2  The Protected
Colm       ~ 3.00~  2.00   3.94   3.00  Ocean   3  The Bandits of Borg
Forde      ~ 6.00~  5.50   0.59   4.00  Kgt C   8  It's a Trap!
Marisa     ~ 0.00~  0.01   0.03   0.00  Hero   10A Revolt at Carcino 1
Dozla      ~ 2.00~  1.50   1.01   2.00         11A Creeping Darkness 1
BLANK      ~ 0.00~  0.00   0.00   0.00         21  Sacred Stones
Raw sums:   41.50  37.01  27.06  29.50 
HANDICAP:  0.34

Sturm                V                  item   chapter
Ross         4.00 ~ 5.00~  4.68   4.00  Ocean   2  The Protected
Garcia       5.50 ~ 6.00~  3.50   5.50  Hero    2  The Protected
Neimi        2.00 ~ 3.50~  2.01   3.00  oBolt   3  The Bandits of Borg
Artur        8.00 ~ 9.00~  5.48   8.00  gRing   4  Ancient Horrors
Lute         6.00 ~ 9.00~ 11.11   4.00  gRing   4  Ancient Horrors
Tana         8.00 ~ 9.00~  8.03   8.00  eWhip   9A Distant Blade 9B Fo
Amelia       0.00 ~ 2.00~  1.50   0.00  Kgt C   9A Distant Blade 9B Fo
Cormag       3.00 ~ 9.00~  6.47   2.00  eWhip  13A Hamill Canyon 13B F
Raw sums:   36.50  52.50  42.78  34.50 
HANDICAP:  5.65

DarthR0xas                  V           item   chapter
Natasha      3.50   1.50 ~ 7.50~  2.50  gRing   5  The Empire's Reach
Seth>=6      9.50   9.00 ~16.39~  9.00          6  Victims of War
L'Arachel    1.00   1.00 ~ 5.50~  0.00  gRing  11A Creeping Darkness 1
Rennac       0.30   0.50 ~ 2.59~  1.00         14A Queen of White Dune
Duessel      1.00   2.00 ~ 4.79~  0.00         15  Scorched Sand
Knoll        0.80   1.50 ~ 3.56~  0.00  gRing  15  Scorched Sand
2nd Lord     1.00   2.00 ~ 6.82~  2.00  Heven  16  Ruled by Madness
Syrene       1.00   1.50 ~ 5.00~  2.00         17  River of Regrets
Raw sums:   18.10  19.00  52.15  16.50 
HANDICAP:  2.23

AnonymousS                         V    item   chapter
Moulder      5.50   3.00   7.50 ~ 7.50~ gRing   2  The Protected
Joshua       2.50   2.00   5.00 ~ 3.50~ Hero    5  The Empire's Reach
Kyle         6.00   6.00   1.88 ~ 7.80~ Kgt C   8  It's a Trap!
Gerik        2.00   6.50   3.50 ~ 6.50~ Hero   10A Revolt at Carcino 1
Innes        1.00   1.50   4.24 ~ 3.80~        10A Revolt at Carcino 1
Saleh        3.50   7.00   3.00 ~ 7.00~        12A Village of Silence 
Ewan         0.00   0.25   0.01 ~ 0.50~ gRing  12A Village of Silence 
Myrrh        1.00   1.50   5.98 ~ 4.00~        16  Ruled by Madness
Raw sums:   21.50  27.75  31.11  40.60 
HANDICAP:  0.00

 

Wargrave: Franz, Gilliam, Vanessa, Colm, Forde, Marisa, Dozla, BLANK, HANDICAP:  0.34

Sturm: Ross, Garcia, Neimi, Artur, Lute, Tana, Amelia, Cormag, HANDICAP:  5.65

DarthR0xas: Natasha, Seth>=6, L'Arachel, Rennac, Duessel, Knoll, 2nd Lord, Syrene, HANDICAP:  2.23

AnonymousS: Moulder, Joshua, Kyle, Gerik, Innes, Saleh, Ewan, Myrrh, HANDICAP:  0.00

I deleted my old comments but the teams ended up close to the same so that was foolish. I have the two best units, but to balance that out, for the 3rd time no Warper (and Warp is more important in FE8), plus I have only 6 units if I don't wait for Marisa, and late promoting Gilliam and Forde.

Sturm has plenty of units early game, potentially 5 mounts for lategame, and didn't get Cormag+Saleh after all. Quite a nice team imo, going by handicaps its apparently the best one. I'm regretting my magic user bids right now!

R0xas's handicap looks quite a bit better after correcting the bids, who would have guessed? About half of the game will be a Seth solo. Eirika only for combat means a Seth penalty for some chapters seems pragmatic, so he'll show up even more!

Anonymous will also probably take a Seth penalty, at least for chapter 3. Eirika bashing through the walls alone already loses two turns, to say nothing of getting past the enemies. I'm curious if Towerless Ewan manages to help in any way, it would be cool if he did.

Miscellaneous info

Spoiler

Perceived Benefit from Raw Handicaps (academic only, raw not used)
           Wargrave   Sturm      DarthR0xas AnonymousS 
Franz        0.00      10.25      10.12       8.38     
Gilliam      0.00       6.13       2.73       2.38     
Vanessa      0.00      12.25      10.89      12.25     
Moulder      6.00       4.13       7.50       0.00     
Ross         4.25       0.00       4.76       4.25     
Garcia       5.63       0.00       4.13       5.63     
Neimi        2.38       0.00       2.38       3.13     
Colm         0.00       2.25       3.70       3.00     
Artur        8.25       0.00       6.36       8.25     
Lute         6.75       0.00      10.58       5.25     
Natasha      4.50       3.00       0.00       3.75     
Joshua       2.75       2.38       4.63       0.00     
Seth>=6     11.22      10.85       0.00      10.85     
Forde        0.00       5.63       1.94       4.50     
Kyle         6.45       6.45       3.36       0.00     
Tana         8.25       0.00       8.27       8.25     
Amelia       0.50       0.00       1.63       0.50     
Gerik        3.12       6.50       4.25       0.00     
Innes        1.70       2.08       4.13       0.00     
Marisa       0.00       0.01       0.02       0.00     
Dozla        0.00       1.63       1.26       2.00     
L'Arachel    2.13       2.13       0.00       1.38     
Saleh        4.38       7.00       4.00       0.00     
Ewan         0.13       0.31       0.13       0.00     
Cormag       4.50       0.00       7.10       3.75     
Rennac       0.87       1.02       0.00       1.40     
Duessel      1.95       2.70       0.00       1.20     
Knoll        1.49       2.01       0.00       0.89     
2nd Lord     2.46       3.21       0.00       3.21     
Myrrh        1.75       2.13       5.49       0.00     
Syrene       2.00       2.38       0.00       2.75     
BLANK        0.00       0.00       0.00       0.00     

Raw Team Value Matrix
           Wargrave   Sturm      DarthR0xas AnonymousS satisfaction
Wargrave    41.50      36.50      18.10      21.50      16.13     
Sturm       37.01      52.50      19.00      27.75      24.58     
DarthR0xas  27.06      42.78      52.15      31.11      18.50     
AnonymousS  29.50      34.50      16.50      40.60      13.77     

R-by-chapter Adjusted Team Value Matrix
           Wargrave   Sturm      DarthR0xas AnonymousS satisfaction
Wargrave    34.71      32.90      19.28      22.16       9.93     
Sturm       32.92      43.88      20.51      27.19      17.01     
DarthR0xas  27.12      39.27      45.10      31.54      12.46     
AnonymousS  27.69      32.05      18.06      35.41       9.48     

HANDICAPS    0.34       5.65       2.23       0.00     

Adjusted Team Value - Handicap Matrix
           Wargrave   Sturm      DarthR0xas AnonymousS satisfaction
Wargrave    34.37      27.25      17.05      22.16      12.22     
Sturm       32.58      38.23      18.28      27.19      12.22     
DarthR0xas  26.78      33.63      42.87      31.54      12.22     
AnonymousS  27.36      26.40      15.82      35.41      12.22     

Expected Victory Margin Matrix
           Wargrave   Sturm      DarthR0xas AnonymousS satisfaction
Wargrave     0.00      -7.12     -17.33     -12.21      12.22     
Sturm       -5.65       0.00     -19.96     -11.05      12.22     
DarthR0xas -16.09      -9.24       0.00     -11.33      12.22     
AnonymousS  -8.06      -9.01     -19.59       0.00      12.22     

END

 

So based on the bids we entered, the units we got, and the R-adjustment, the Expected Victory Margin Matrix theoretically shows that not only do we each expect to win, we expect to win by 12 turns on average. It will be interesting to compare that to reality at the end!

Also, I made this little chart showing the median bids for your interest:

Edited August 12, 2018 by JudgeWargrave
Fixing R0xas's bids.

[Sturm]

Ah, sorry, I put them in order of cost to see if the values I'd rated units made sense in a best to worst fashion but forgot to change it back, anyway everything looks right iirc.

I'm going to end up with the coveted Cormag/Saleh team aren't I , rip.

Edited August 12, 2018 by Sturm

[DarthR0xas]

Alright, glad we got that all sorted out. I should mention first and foremost that I am not that good at Fire Emblem, but hey, this'll  be a way to improve my skill

Spoiler

With that, the prologue (4/4)

My strategy was to trade Seth's sword to Eirika, which she can't use (dangit), anyways, I put her in front of the first enemy, and wait. When the enemy's turn happens, I get hit by the first foe, but then get a crit and kill him, then the second brigand comes and Eirika

 

Dies. Consider this proof for my first statement

Ok, trying again, hope I get some better RNG this time

Attempt 2 goes marginally better, unfortunately, I didn't get any crits on the bandits, meaning it took me three turns to clear them, but Eirika didn't get hit, so I consider that good. Anyways, got a crit on O'Neal, and get this decent level up

I'll be honest, I'd like some strength with that, but more defence on Eirika is always good. 

So the Prologue ends with me clearing it in four turns, and my units as such

Unit	Lvl	  Hp  Str  Ski  Spd  Luk  Def  Res
Eirika  2/-       17   4    9    10   5    4    2

Next, we get Chapter 1 Escape! (5/9)

This map took me four tries. I won't bore you with three pictures of my Eirika failing, one right before the boss (COME ON EIRIKA)

Now, on my fourth, and successful attempt, I essentially blitzed it with Eirika, keeping Seth out of the way of all foes, since I can't use him yet. I moved to two under the rightmost brigand, then waited, he thankfully missed, then, since I don't know how to explain this move well, I did this (shown in picture) , rescued Gilliam with Franz to allow them to avoid combat. Eirika then proceeded to murder everyone, get a great level-up (I'll show her stats at the end, she get's two more great level ups

Then I move her here, vulnerary, and wait. After murdering a few foes, and getting a decent level, I move Eirika and finish off my vulnerary. 

Of course, I kill Baguette in one turn, due to the power of the 69

Anyways, here's my Eirika, since I'm only using her for a while, I'll just show her stats instead of making that graph thing that I'm not good at

Yep, the RNG Gods heard my plea and granted my Eirika to gain 3 points of strength in my three level-ups. This might be normal for all I know, but in my other playthroughs, Eirika rarely levelled strength, at least early game. 

I realized now I could've used Seth, and it would be worth the penalty to speed it up. Ah whatever, next chapter

Chapter 2 The Protected (5+4/18)

Pre Battle Preparations: I gave Seth a Javelin, an iron axe, and his steel sword back. I gave Eirika a fresh vulnerary and an iron sword.

I bit the bullet and used Seth this chapter, simply to speed things vastly up which I'll probably do next map as well. Anyways, I start turn one by just moving Seth down and using Eirika to visit the red gem village. Turn 2 Seth kills a bandit, and Ross dies. I thought I was going to fail because he died, but the map kept going, and Garcia, in a blind rage, looks at his son's killer, and then promptly goes over to an archer

He doesn't even kill the archer. Kinda disappointing. Needless to say, Seth takes the next two turns killing almost everyone down there. Meanwhile, Eirika handles the mountain-side reinforcements.

Seth, you missing was not part of the plan.

Garcia runs away from the enemies, but fortunately the bandit suicides on him. 

At this point, it's chapter five, and due to Garcia's running away, I am worried that this'll take 6 turns. But the AI was on my side for once, as Garcia takes out the final enemy, allowing for the finished turn to be 5, plus 4 for Seth penalty.

And I'll do one more chapter for now, Chapter 3  The Bandits of Borgo (7+4/29)

Pre-Battle-Preparations: I didn't do anything here

I should mention that I continue my trend of failure here, right at the boss again (This is going to become one annoying trend)

On my successful second try, I used Seth to break down a wall, Eirika attacked the bandit inside, and killed him on enemy phase. Repeat that, except the bandit now has a hand axe, so he wasn't killed on enemy phase.

 

Also, for the heck of it, Moulder and Vanessa went out on a nice romantic walk, while Gilliam, Neimi, and Franz worked on a support triangle

 

After clearing all of the immediate foes, Seth went on to kill the axe door guard, the sword door guard, and the boss

I recruited Colm for the items he stole, and then seized with Eirika. Here are the results for proof

These are how my unit's stats look so far

Unit     LVL   HP  STR  SKI  SPD  LUK  DEF  RES
Eirika   07/-  19  9    13   14   9    5    3
Seth     -/02  31  15   13   13   13   11   9

I'm pretty happy with how my units are turning out. Seth is the man of 13's and Eirika is becoming a bit of a pseudo-glass cannon.

 

7

Looking back at my gameplay, I can tell I'm playing pretty sub-optimally. Despite all of my failures, this was a ton of fun, and I'm super glad I signed up for it. I'll try to update later today, and if you guys have any tips I'd be glad to hear them! 

Edited December 13, 2018 by DarthR0xas
Adding a Spoiler tag for browsing convenience

[AnonymousSpeed]

7 hours ago, JudgeWargrave said:

New blood is much appreciated. Rather it's necessary, the number of non-new people to this form of draft is not much more than single digits!

Glad to help out.

7 hours ago, JudgeWargrave said:

This is because past experience shows teams of mostly good units have a harder time erasing their handicap than they probably should.

Right, I remember that point from the pdf.

5 hours ago, JudgeWargrave said:

AnonymousS: Moulder, Joshua, Kyle, Gerik, Innes, Saleh, Ewan, Myrrh, HANDICAP:  0.00

I knew I should have bid 13 on Vanessa.

Based on handicaps, I have the worst team. I really cannot argue with that. Aside from no fliers and no early mounts, something I didn't even think about when bidding is my nonexistent 1-2 range options for the early game.

5 hours ago, JudgeWargrave said:

Anonymous will also probably take a Seth penalty, at least for chapter 3. Eirika bashing through the walls alone already loses two turns, to say nothing of getting past the enemies. I'm curious if Towerless Ewan manages to help in any way, it would be cool if he did.

Not only does it make getting past these walls harder, but it will make route maps a lot more tricky as well, due to the less enemy phases I'll have. Really should have put more into Garcia or even Ross. If only slight, my underestimation of how much others value them is going to present some trouble.

...

So, those Seth penalties are added up how again?

Edited August 12, 2018 by AnonymousSpeed

[Sturm]

OK, I'm pretty happy with that team actually, though if I go Eirika's route I'll probably end up skipping Cormag so I'm effectively a unit down. Ephraim's route might also be a possibility though it'll be worse early especially the first map of the route split but better late seeing as I'll have two fliers. I'll probably keep a save and try out the route I don't choose at some point. Also I might be able to do some neat Warp/Rescue strategies seeing as I have both Artur and Lute, we'll have to see.

Wargrave with the no Warp team again, well you managed to make it work last time but your Handicap is no where near as big, still you have the number one and two units so that should be good. It'll be interesting to see how well Vanessa and Franz work in unison, seeing as that would never ever happen normally.

2 hours ago, DarthR0xas said:

With that, the prologue (4/4)

My strategy was to trade Seth's sword to Eirika, which she can't use (dangit), anyways, I put her in front of the first enemy, and wait. When the enemy's turn happens, I get hit by the first foe, but then get a crit and kill him, then the second brigand comes and Eirika

For future reference, there's a well known two turn of the prologue using only Eirika, if you hard reset the game (as in go to file > reset not press A/B/Start/Select) then move Seth one up all the way left and then drag the cursor north across the river. After that move Eirika three right, she'll get three crits and kill both Bandits then on turn two move her onto the forest and end turn O'Neil will attack her and she'll kill him with another crit.

2 hours ago, DarthR0xas said:

Looking back at my gameplay, I can tell I'm playing pretty sub-optimally. Despite all of my failures, this was a ton of fun, and I'm super glad I signed up for it. I'll try to update later today, and if you guys have any tips I'd be glad to hear them!

You're not doing too badly actually, I would say just be careful about when you use Seth as it's still four turns extra, you have to really make sure he makes a difference. For example I think you could do Chapter 2 in 6-8 turns with just Eirika which would be better than using Seth, still not bad so far.

1 hour ago, AnonymousSpeed said:

So, those Seth penalties are added up how again?

If you use a unit that you aren't assigned you simply add four to your turn count for each unassigned unit you use per chapter. So if you complete a map in five turns but use Seth it's as if you did it in nine turns instead and that's reflected in your running total, sometimes it's worth taking a penalty but typically you want to use it as little as possible, if at all, though it depends on how good your team is.

@JudgeWargrave Maybe you pointed it out somewhere and I can't see it but I'm wondering what the asterisks on the graph are signifying.

Edited August 12, 2018 by Sturm

[JudgeWargrave]

3 hours ago, DarthR0xas said:

this was a ton of fun, and I'm super glad I signed up for it.

Glad to hear that! I will echo Sturm's point about chapter 2, Eirika should be able to solo it in 8 or fewer turns, which should be more than enough time for Garcia to clear up his side. This will also benefit you by getting more exp to Eirika. For chapter 3, the screenshots look like you get stuck in a bottleneck for more than one turn due to enemies not dying on their attacks. You might want put Seth in front for that one and leave Eirika out of range to ensure all the enemies are cleared efficiently. You can also probably save a turn by picking Eirika up and dropping her in range to seize; it looks like the turn you kill the boss she is 7 tiles away, so she had to walk for two turns after the throne opened. I believe Seth can one-round the enemies even when carrying her so he shouldn't get blocked.

1 hour ago, Sturm said:

if I go Eirika's route I'll probably end up skipping Cormag

Yeah it takes a long time to be able to recruit him doesn't it, you have to wait til turn 6. I'm not sure if he can save 4+ turns from that point since you already have Tana. The question is, which is faster, Eirika route without him or Ephraim route with him?

1 hour ago, Sturm said:

I'm wondering what the asterisks on the graph are signifying.

Ah, those just mark units that can gain a horse when promoting.

[AnonymousSpeed]

3 hours ago, Sturm said:

If you use a unit that you aren't assigned you simply add four to your turn count for each unassigned unit you use per chapter. So if you complete a map in five turns but use Seth it's as if you did it in nine turns instead and that's reflected in your running total, sometimes it's worth taking a penalty but typically you want to use it as little as possible, if at all, though it depends on how good your team is.

But I can use Seth as much as necessary, and the penalty will still be the same, yes?

 

1 hour ago, JudgeWargrave said:

Ah, those just mark units that can gain a horse when promoting.

That explains the color.

 

I've completed and recorded the prologue. I'll try and get a couple more chapters done and post them all together in the near future.

[DarthR0xas]

As I said, I've come back to do some more playing. I've used some strategies which will undoubtedly cost me some turns early-game, but I'm hoping with Seth and my team, in general, I'll be able to make up for lost turns, as for said strategies those will be listed below.

Spoiler

Where did I leave off? Oh yeah.

Chapter 4 Ancient Horrors (7+4/40)

Pre Battle Preparations: Nothing much happened here, just the usual upkeep of vulneraries.

I used Seth again for this chapter, Eirika simply can't handle all of the foes here (I tried, it just get's too long) without me getting any early game units, I just had to use Seth again, and for the next chapter to make the strategy I used work as efficiently as possible. But enough about the next chapter, or my team based more around end-game, let's get to the chapter

So to no one's surprise, I failed. BUT THIS TIME it wasn't because Eirika died. No, it was because this idiot had to attack Artur

So in my good attempt, I was aware of the reinforcements, and thusly was able to keep Artur away from any danger

Eirika went left, Seth right, and Artur went away from any enemy.

 

After a solid few rounds of Seth and Eirika cleaning the upper half of the map, they began to advance towards the bottom.

 

Well, Seth did, Eirika got a little distracted by the reinforcements.

 

So Eirika went up, and got welcomed by these fine gentlemen, which she promptly murdered.

 Monster: "Hi, how are yo-" ded.

I did all of these in one go, so I'll just tell you guys all the stats at the end, since I didn't keep track of all of those throughout, I must apologise for my lack of upkeep on that. But now, we get my relative failure of

Chapter 5 The Empire's Reach (7+4/51) The hopefully last chapter where that +4 will appear.

Pre-Battle Preparations: I gave Natasha the heal staff.

Now my strategy here involved getting the Guiding Ring, as it is the only promotion item I need, and I need 3 of them. This will allow me to early promote Natasha, and by the time my other two ring requirerers come I'll have more rings for them.

I sent Natasha down to the bottom right house, Eirika straight up, and Seth to the left. (I would get a picture of all of them, but they're too wide apart for that). Anyways, after turn one ends, I sent Natty to get the DRACOSHIELD

Wonder who'll get that. 

Seth continues to make his way up, so he can visit this lonely houseso he can get Eirika the torch

Meanwhile, Eirika get's bodied by the surprisingly hard-hiting soldiers, and thusly kills yet another vulnerary.

 

She goes through like, one a map. I thought I had healers to fix this, but appearantly all they do is fetch shields.

I'll be efficient here.

Killed Joshua (wanted his killing edge, but this was faster)

 

Got 4000 gold (which I think I actually used instead of selling it, whoops)

Got this weapon which I didn't even use thanks to the power of Seth

And Killed the boss

Showing my turn counts

And from here, we get the Ephraim castle seige. 

Chapter 5x (11/62)

Orson leads the charge, with Ephraim honestly just getting as many kills as he can while moving forwards as fast as possible.

Nothing much interesting happens, just a lot of killing generic foes. 

Here we see Ephraim do it 

Here we see Orson do it

And here we see Orson, taking out the boss.

Honestly, not much to talk about with this map. Just a straightforward rush to the boss. Pretty satisfied with how this chapter turned out.

Chapter 6: Victims of War (4/66)

Finally, no plus 4, it's time for Seth to shine. 

Pre-Battle Preparations: Used Draco shield on Eirika, and Secret Book on Natasha, also got Seth a new Javelin

 

So I'm playing the map, when somehow, I manage to kill Seth

 

I didn't even know that was possible.

So restarting, and with a newfound sense of fear, I decide to better use Natasha's torch to see the area Seth will rush into to see what foe killed him.

 

It turns out, the dude had a Halberd

 

Killed that dude, but unfortunetally, Seth then gets poisoned.

Seth didn't like that, and thusly criticaled that bandit. 

He went on to kill the boss, as Seth does. 

 

 

Hey, that's almost what the Black Knight said (No it isn't but that was the reason I took this screenshot, so I'll stick with the joke)

And lastly for a while, I present to you Chapter 7: Waterside Renvall (8/74)

Didn't do anything pre-battle prep-wise, and this entire chapter can be summarised as such:

Seth kills literally everything, picks up Eirika, ferries her to the boss, kills that, while I sit and wonder how the hell I'm going to get Natasha any levels, as I kinda want her to promote before I get La'Rachel

The following are pictures of the Renvallian masacre

 

Here we see two men, so in fear of their lives that they'd rather back away then save their general

 

More showing of my status

Anyways, as promised here are my units

Unit     LvL   HP   ATK   SKI   SPD   LUK   DEF   RES   ITEM
Eirika   13/-  24   10    17    19    15    8     5     DraShi
Seth     -/7   36   17    15    16    13    12    10 
Natasha  1/-   18   2     6     8     6     2     6     SecBok

I must say, I'm kinda disappointed with Natasha. I had assumed that she would at least be to level 3 by now, but as you can see, that didn't happen. I was still thinking like I was playing regular FE, not an LTC. Natasha just doesn't have that many times to heal on open maps. I'm hoping that perhaps I'll be able to use her much more indoors on the next map. 

As for my other units, Eirika is doing pretty dang good, and Seth is Seth.

4

I'm honestly amazed at how much fun I'm having. Normal Fire Emblem is a blast, but speed-running it with only a few units is quite the rush. I just hope I can recover from my Seth unit penalty hole. I probably won't be able to work much on this run for a little while, school's starting back up, and homework comes with it.

Also, should I go Eirika or Ephraim's route? I'm thinking Eirika, but Ephraim's would get me more experience for him. Although I think his path is longer. Anyways, I'm just not sure

Ignore these images, Serenes Forest refuses to let me delete them

 

 

Edited December 13, 2018 by DarthR0xas
Some images got misplaced

[Sturm]

 

 

OK, got the first four chapters done.

Prologue: The Fall of Renais.

Turns - 2/2

Eirika did it!

Unit     Class  Level  HP  Atk Skl Spd Lck Def Res Weapon Level Stat Boosters
Eirika	 Lord   02.45  16  05  08  10  06  03  01  E Swords  

Chapter 1: Escape!

Turns - 5/7

Eirika rapier'd everything on her way to the boss, she used more Rapier uses than strictly necessary but that gave her the best level ups and I'll take a few less Rapier uses for two Strength levels any day.

Unit     Class  Level  HP  Atk Skl Spd Lck Def Res Weapon Level Stat Boosters
Eirika	 Lord   05.08  18  07  09  12  06  04  03  D Swords  

Chapter 2: The Protected

Turns - 5/12

Anna be praised for this RNG, Eirika grabbed the Red Gem on turn one and then went down to take care of everything while Ross and Garcia took care of the enemies in the east. I had Vanessa block the spawn point of the left Bandit reinforcement meaning he spawns a space to the north instead so he can get off the mountain quicker. Eirika got a Rapier crit on Bone allowing for the five turn and also got Strength on both levels it was great. If anyone wants to copy these strategies you need to hard reset after each map fyi.

Unit     Class  Level  HP  Atk Skl Spd Lck Def Res Weapon Level Stat Boosters
Eirika	 Lord   07.54  19  09  10  13  08  04  03  C Swords  

Chapter 3: The Bandits of Borgo

Turns - 6/18

My three new recruits arrived just in time to help Eirika out here, I bought a selection of Axes for Garcia and Ross as well as a Slim Sword for Eirika to help out with feeding kills to my scrubs. Neimi and Garcia broke the first wall and Eirika brought the bandit to 1 HP for Ross to finish. Turn two Garcia attacked the second Wall while everyone else stayed back so the Hand Axe!Bandit would move out the way to attack Garcia. Turn three Ross gave the Hatchet to his dad so he could feed the Bandit to Neimi and Ross broke the Wall allowing Eirika to run through, Garcia didn't have anything to steal and Seth blocked Ross from getting attacked so the Thief attacked Eirika. Turn four Neimi finished the Thief and Eirika ran through, Eirika was one Speed too slow to double the Mercenary and just short of dealing enough damage with the Steel Sword to allow Niemi or Garcia to finish with the Iron Bow/Hatchet so Garcia had to hit a 39 displayed hit Hand Axe which he managed to do allowing Eirika to stand in front of the boss. The Boss has 26 displayed hit on her but he ended up hitting so she had to heal, Garcia came through again though and managed to kill him with another ~30 hit Hand Axe which is great because he gets the Boss Kill experience instead of Eirika, meanwhile Neimi and Ross finished some enemies for some experience. Neimi is a work in progress, she got a nice first level, hopefully her horse will prove to be worth it though with all these early game units I'm not sure how quickly she'll reach level 10, Ross is also off to a good start.

Unit    Class       Level  HP  Atk Skl Spd Lck Def Res Weapon Level Stat Boosters
Eirika	Lord        08.19  19  10  11  13  09  04  03  C Swords  
Garcia  Fighter     05.36  28  09  07  07  04  06  01  C Axes
Ross    Journeyman  03.26  15  06  03  05  08  04  01  E Axes
Neimi   Archer      02.40  18  05  06  06  05  03  03  D Bows

14 hours ago, AnonymousSpeed said:

But I can use Seth as much as necessary, and the penalty will still be the same, yes?

Yes it doesn't matter if you have Ross chip one enemy of have Seth solo an entire map it's four turns no matter what you do.

13 hours ago, DarthR0xas said:

Now my strategy here involved getting the Guiding Ring, as it is the only promotion item I need, and I need 3 of them.

13 hours ago, DarthR0xas said:

Got 4000 gold (which I think I actually used instead of selling it, whoops)

Yeah that's kind of a shame you need so many Guiding Rings, remember you also get a Master Seal in chapter 15 which might be easier to get, something to keep in mind. You aren't really desperate for Cash in Sacred Stones, it's not like FE6 where every bit of gold matters so in my opinion using it is probably the better choice though on the other hand you don't really have anyone that would appreciate it so it's whatever really.

13 hours ago, DarthR0xas said:

So I'm playing the map, when somehow, I manage to kill Seth

Haha, that must be some sort of glitch .

13 hours ago, DarthR0xas said:

I must say, I'm kinda disappointed with Natasha. I had assumed that she would at least be to level 3 by now, but as you can see, that didn't happen.

Yeah training up healers is one of the most difficult things to manage, I rate them pretty low because of that.

15 hours ago, JudgeWargrave said:

Yeah it takes a long time to be able to recruit him doesn't it, you have to wait til turn 6. I'm not sure if he can save 4+ turns from that point since you already have Tana. The question is, which is faster, Eirika route without him or Ephraim route with him?

The more I think on it the more difficult this choice seems, if I go Ephraim's route I could maybe skip the Chapter 8 Elysian Whip and promote whoever I don't promote out of Tana and Cormag with the Chapter 15 Master Seal, which will probably save ~3 turns on Chapter 8 though it might cost some turns before chapter 15 from having one flier unpromoted. On the other hand if I go Ephraim's route then I can't promote either Lute or Artur until later, meaning I'll probably have to go Sage!Lute and Bishop!Artur for the extra Staff Rank where as if I go Eirika's I can probably go Sage!Artur and Mage Knight!Lute which might be a bit better for rout maps, it's a tough choice.

[AnonymousSpeed]

11 hours ago, Sturm said:

Yes it doesn't matter if you have Ross chip one enemy of have Seth solo an entire map it's four turns no matter what you do.

Right, might as well use him all the way during the Bandits of Borgo. Maybe.

I'm currently stuck on an 8-turn clear for Chapter 2, but it comes with some good level ups for Eirika (if I stick with my latest go through it's 2 strength and 1 defense, 1-2 points of speed but I don't quite remember) and some Moulder staff EXP. I also wouldn't want to so quickly resort to copying your strategy, though that is a total of 3 turns so I'll probably do that anyway. I noticed you left Ross there, that's something that I didn't do because I figured he'd just die and then I'd feel bad, but it looks like I should let him use that hatchet while his father throws that hand axe at nothing like a drunken idiot.

One last question about Chapter 2 though, am I allowed to use Moulder to heal Ross? It wouldn't save me any turns but would give me another turn of having Moulder using his staff.

Edited August 14, 2018 by AnonymousSpeed

[JudgeWargrave]

19 hours ago, AnonymousSpeed said:

am I allowed to use Moulder to heal Ross?

Yes, Moulder is on your team so he can do whatever he wants:

On 8/11/2018 at 4:51 PM, JudgeWargrave said:

2c. Assigned units may do as they please without penalty.

Technically Moulder can't do something that causes another unit to break a rule though, such as dropping an unassigned (blue) unit where an enemy attacks them, causing that unit to break rule 2b.

[AnonymousSpeed]

Prologue (2/2 Turns):

Spoiler

This isn't the standard way to Eirika solo the first chapter in two turns, it's a little something I cooked up myself. The level up Eirika gets using this method isn't as good though, so I don't think I made any earth-shattering discovery here.

 

Chapter 1 (5/7 Turns):

Spoiler

 

It was necessary to rig the RNG so that Eirika gained a point of strength off her first level up this map, because otherwise she wouldn't be able ORKO the soldier or fighter on turn 2 Enemy Phase. It's an issue which could have been avoided by using the more common Prologue method. Overall my Eirika is turning out a bit worse the Strum's. This chapter is also the first where you see something I hope to be doing less of in the future: RNG abuse.

 

Chapter 2 (5/12):

Spoiler

 

Leaving Ross on the other side really did help contribute to a 5-turn clear, I underestimated his ability to handle himself. I maybe could have gotten Moulder a use of his staff but I sent him for the Elixer instead, which might not have been a good idea. Eirika managed to save a few Rapier uses with iron and slim swords, and while a Steel would have worked I like that Slim Sword crit on the second enemy phase. This chapter features more RNG abuse, though not too terribly much of it. You don't even have to do any on your last turn, it just gets Eirika a better level (leaving her still behind Strum's at the same level). I could have burned more numbers to get a strength level maybe, but I decided it wouldn't be a super-wise investment of time.

 

The video quality isn't coming through too great for me. I guess that's what using VBA's default AVI recording gets you. Anyone else seeing that in the above videos?

[DarthR0xas]

14 hours ago, AnonymousSpeed said:

The video quality isn't coming through too great for me. I guess that's what using VBA's default AVI recording gets you. Anyone else seeing that in the above videos?

Well, it's only coming in at 144p. A popular method for recording would be Bandicam, but that would involve either being fast, or cutting it into multiple segments due to how the free version works. It'd probably have higher quality. There are obviously other recording methods, but Bandicam was the easiest system to me. Another thing I've done is record it on my phone, which came in at 240p. The Bandicam method is what I'm going to start doing, typing all of those witty jokes, while fun, took up a lot of time. You'll see with my my next update post (which I hope I'll have the time to do so on Saturday).

Also, and this is something that you don't need to do, but many others make a small graph showing what their units stats look like, as shown with Sturm and my posts. It makes it easier when you're scrolling through to see how units change from time to time. Click to two arrows going in opposite directions, and just follow what Sturm did, as his looks better. 

Edited August 15, 2018 by DarthR0xas
Adding detail

[AnonymousSpeed]

3 hours ago, DarthR0xas said:

Well, it's only coming in at 144p. A popular method for recording would be Bandicam, but that would involve either being fast, or cutting it into multiple segments due to how the free version works. It'd probably have higher quality. There are obviously other recording methods, but Bandicam was the easiest system to me. Another thing I've done is record it on my phone, which came in at 240p. The Bandicam method is what I'm going to start doing, typing all of those witty jokes, while fun, took up a lot of time. You'll see with my my next update post (which I hope I'll have the time to do so on Saturday).

 

My personal recommendation is OBS. Using the built-in recorder over that was just me being lazy.

 

3 hours ago, DarthR0xas said:

Also, and this is something that you don't need to do, but many others make a small graph showing what their units stats look like, as shown with Sturm and my posts. It makes it easier when you're scrolling through to see how units change from time to time. Click to two arrows going in opposite directions, and just follow what Sturm did, as his looks better. 

I'll try and do that next time then, though maybe not for every chapter.

[Sturm]

Here, have some more chapters.

Chapter 4: Ancient Horrors

Turns - 4/22

Pretty easy four turn for my team here thanks to having so many early units. Garcia made a bee line towards the boss and took care of the whole of the south east, this map is one of his best performances as he can easily one round all the Revenants at base. Artur took care of the Bone Walker reinforcements and most of the Mogalls while Eirika went south and broke the Snag to take care of a few enemies around Lute's Village whilst feeding a couple of kills to Neimi on her way. Vanessa triggered the Revenant reinforcements on turn one so Ross would have plenty of time to clean them up. Ross has got Speed five out of six levels, can't complain.

Unit    Class       Level  HP  Atk Skl Spd Lck Def Res Weapon Level Stat Boosters
Eirika	Lord        08.90  19  10  11  13  09  04  03  C Swords  
Garcia  Fighter     07.79  28  11  07  08  05  06  03  C Axes
Ross    Journeyman  07.21  18  08  06  08  10  05  01  D Axes
Neimi   Archer      03.38  19  05  07  07  06  03  04  D Bows
Artur   Monk        04.14  19  08  08  10  02  02  06  E Light

Chapter 5: The Empire's Reach.

Turns - 5/27

By far the hardest map so far, I needed to get all the Villages for the Guiding Ring and I figured I have enough units to get them all in five turns but it was no easy task because everyone aside from Garcia is 2HKO'd even Eirika, and nobody except Eirika can really ORKO things so there was a lot of trial and error involved in this one. Ross made his way down and got the Dracoshield!Village and he also managed to kill the 'Bandit Boss' which was pretty nice, I just had him sit on top of the Village until the last turn because it gives +10 avoid before it's visited allowing him to pull off two dodges and counter kill him over three enemy phases. Artur headed up to the Torch!village with Niemi following to finish off enemies to clear his way, Lute helped out against the Mercenary from over the wall as the three of them had to gang up to kill him. Garcia led the way through the centre gap with Lute following to help Eirika with the middle area, Eirika made a dash towards the boss through the eastern area, had to burn some RN's so she would survive the Soldiers near the end. Lute and Garcia got the Secret Book and Armourslayer respectively on turn five,Seth helped Natasha to reach Joshua and I ended up routing the map except for two enemies. In an ideal world I would like to be able to give most of Eirika's experience to other units but it's really just not viable, and I can't really complain about this clear too loudly, except for Artur missing a Fighter and costing Neimi a kill that was kind of annoying .

Unit    Class       Level  HP  Atk Skl Spd Lck Def Res Weapon Level Stat Boosters
Eirika	Lord        11.12  22  11  14  16  11  05  04  B Swords  
Garcia  Fighter     08.91  28  12  07  09  05  07  04  C Axes
Ross    Journeyman  08.30  19  09  06  08  11  05  01  D Axes
Neimi   Archer      03.83  19  05  07  07  06  03  04  D Bows
Artur   Monk        04.69  19  08  08  10  02  02  06  E Light
Lute    Mage        03.07  17  08  08  08  08  04  05  C Anima

Chapter 5x: Unbroken Heart

Turns - 7/34

Pretty standard Ephraim/Orson duo run, did a similar strategy to last time but I found a better place to drop Ephraim on the last turn that gives him a much better level up, might be irrelevant if I go Eirika's route but if I do go his route he's got a nice start. Have to burn some RN's for Orson to get the Chest Keys because he misses a ~90% hit Javelin and ruins it. I also messed up at the end, originally I couldn't take the Javelin because Ephraim's Inventory was full with Reginleif, Elixir, two Chest Keys and the Silver Sword but I realised I never actually used the Silver Sword so I had Forde take it at the beginning so Ephraim could take the Javelin as well but then I forgot to actually take it out of habit and couldn't be bothered to redo it, doubt it will make a difference in Chapter 8.

Chapter 6: Victims of War, old clear.

Turns - 4/38

Managed to get Garcia the Boss kill instead of Eirika which was nice. He had to get one Strength and one Speed out of two levels on his way to the Boss in order to ORKO with a Hand Axe, he could also have theoretically killed over a player phase plus enemy phase but his chance of surviving would be very slim. The Strength is trivial but finding a sequence of moves that gave Speed was a bit tricky but I found one after a while,  it wouldn't have been the end of the world if I couldn't as Artur and Garcia could have easily dropped Eirika to get the kill if needed. Lute, Artur and Neimi got experience while standing on the mountains and Eirika helped feed some kills to Ross so he hits level ten because he needs to be promoted for next chapter.

Unit    Class       Level  HP  Atk Skl Spd Lck Def Res Weapon Level Stat Boosters
Eirika	Lord        11.67  22  11  14  16  11  05  04  B Swords  
Garcia  Fighter     11.42  31  14  08  10  07  08  04  C Axes
Ross    Journeyman  10.00  19  10  07  09  13  05  01  D Axes
Neimi   Archer      04.87  19  06  07  08  07  04  04  D Bows
Artur   Monk        05.38  20  09  09  10  02  02  06  D Light
Lute    Mage        04.60  18  09  08  08  08  05  06  C Anima

 

Edited September 9, 2018 by Sturm

[JudgeWargrave]

Prologue: The Fall Of Renais 2/2 turns
Ch 1: Escape! 4/6 turns
Ch 2: The Protected 5/11 turns
Ch 3: The Bandits of Borgo 6/17 turns
Ch 4: Ancient Horrors 4/21 turns

I commentated the videos which was a bit time consuming so I'm not going also put descriptions here.

I'm actually contemplating Ephraim route myself. Would it really be so bad? Fort Rigwald is the only chapter that is significantly worse, and going to Grado has advantages. I can get an earlier 2nd Knight Crest after Chapter 10, get Cormag's Elysian Whip in Chapter 10 instead of the one in Chapter 8's chest, get a better main lord, and probably I can actually get Marisa, who might actually have time to contribute on a Warpless, small team.

[AnonymousSpeed]

Chapter 3 (9/21)

 

I didn't put too much thought into this clear, to be honest, but I'm pretty sure that a 5 turn clear (with a 4 turn Seth penalty) is as good as it gets with just Eirika and Moulder. The latter got a chance to use his heal staff, while Neimi awkwardly ran around in case it was convenient to recruit Colm. He auto-joins at the end of the chapter anyway though so it's not really important.

One thing to note is that Seth needs his Silver Lance equipped to OHKO that mercenary near the end, since he doesn't double them.

The penalty is more than made up for by how much time Seth saves, I think it takes about 13 turns to get Eirika to solo the map? It denies her a couple of levels but whatever, it also saves 4 turns overall and fills me with pessimism about my final turn count.

Speaking of Eirika's levels, here's where her stats are now. No levels this map so it's the same as last chapter.

Unit    Class       Level  HP  Atk Skl Spd Lck Def Res
Eirika	Lord        7.55   18  08  12  12  08  05  04

Lastly, since I actually bothered to use OBS, you can see the LUA script I've been using to find good crits and keep track of how many RNs to burn.

Edited August 26, 2018 by AnonymousSpeed

[JudgeWargrave]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKx64t1gJz8&list=PLtOZhNAJqDYkb0XV5Wsc2t9xxOMFsEu5k&index=6&t=0s

I redid chapter 4 to promote Franz earlier, only the last turn is different.

Ch 5: The Empire's Reach 4/25
Ch 5x: Unbroken Heart 7/32
Ch 6: Victims of War 3/35
Ch 7: Waterside Renvall 4/39
Ch 8: It's a Trap! 5/44
 

[Sturm]

Chapter 7: Waterside Renvall, old clear.

Turns - 5/43

If I could somehow make the boss equip his Javelin I think I could four turn this as Ross would be able to OHKO him with the Halberd but as it is I see no way to get a unit two spaces away from him on turn three so a five turn seems like the best I can do. Ross walked across the River and Eirika also got dropped onto the River by Artur and Garcia, Neimi rescued Lute so she could also be carried across the River so that I could distribute experience a bit better. Everyone is starting to look a bit more competent.

 

Unit    Class       Level  HP  Atk Skl Spd Lck Def Res Weapon Level Stat Boosters
Eirika	Lord        13.15  24  12  14  17  12  05  06  B Swords  
Garcia  Fighter     11.63  31  14  08  10  07  08  04  B Axes
Ross    Pirate      02.83  22  12  08  10  14  06  01  D Axes
Neimi   Archer      06.26  20  08  08  10  09  05  05  D Bows
Artur   Monk        06.29  20  10  10  11  03  03  07  D Light
Lute    Mage        05.79  19  10  08  09  08  06  07  C Anima

Chapter 8: It's a Trap!, old clear

Turns - 9/52

I decided to go Eirika's route because I did Ephraim's last time so I had to get the Elysian Whip which cost a lot of turns, I'm pretty far behind at this point hopefully I can make it up, I don't think there's any way I could get any faster than this when I have no one with more than five move. There's not really much to say on this one it was pretty much just walking forward as fast as possible, and then Artur, Garcia and Ross broke through the Wall while Eirika took on TIrado, Lute ended up finishing him off because Eirika left him on 1HP. Ephraim fought his way through so I could hand the Chest Keys over and to keep Kyle and Forde out of combat.

Unit    Class       Level  HP  Atk Skl Spd Lck Def Res Weapon Level Stat Boosters
Eirika	Lord        13.51  24  12  14  17  12  05  06  B Swords  
Garcia  Fighter     13.26  32  15  10  11  08  10  05  B Axes
Ross    Pirate      05.35  25  12  11  11  16  08  03  C Axes
Neimi   Archer      08.66  21  10  10  12  10  05  06  C Bows
Artur   Monk        07.23  21  11  10  12  03  04  08  D Light
Lute    Mage        08.85  21  13  09  11  10  06  09  C Anima

On 20/08/2018 at 12:21 AM, JudgeWargrave said:

I'm actually contemplating Ephraim route myself. Would it really be so bad? Fort Rigwald is the only chapter that is significantly worse, and going to Grado has advantages. I can get an earlier 2nd Knight Crest after Chapter 10, get Cormag's Elysian Whip in Chapter 10 instead of the one in Chapter 8's chest, get a better main lord, and probably I can actually get Marisa, who might actually have time to contribute on a Warpless, small team.

I expect you've already made your mind up at this point but I'd definitely consider it, I think the reputation Ephraim route has is worse than it actually is a bit like Sacae route in FE6 really. The only really bad thing about Ephraim's route is that it's a lot harder to train a staff user because Tethys shows up later and his later maps are quite short in comparison so you have less time to spam staves but that's irrelevant for your team so I think it would be pretty decent. I expect you'll probably draw about even but having Marisa will probably save a turn in Chapter 18 at the very least so you might come out on top overall.

Edited September 9, 2018 by Sturm

[JudgeWargrave]

1 hour ago, Sturm said:

Ephraim fought his way through so I could hand the Chest Keys over and to keep Kyle and Forde out of combat.

Technically speaking, staying out of combat isn't all they need to do:

On 8/11/2018 at 4:51 PM, JudgeWargrave said:

2b. Unassigned units may not do anything else, including but not limited to enter combat, use items, trade/merch mid-chapter, visit (any building), rescue/drop assigned units or NPCs, steal, pick, or build Supports.

When I put this in I was thinking of unassigned units changing equipped weapons, but it also covers using them as part of a trade chain, at least with other unassigned units. They could technically be involved under the rules as written, as long as a unit on your team initiates each trade. Therefore, this wouldn't stop you from getting the Whip, because you could just move Kyle next to the chest and have Artur initiate the trade, take the key from him, and open the chest, as

On 8/11/2018 at 4:51 PM, JudgeWargrave said:

2c. Assigned units may do as they please without penalty.

Arguably, I didn't do the best job of making unambiguous rules, as it's unclear if 2c actually overrides the inability to trade in 2b--it's up to interpretation whether another unit opening a trade menu with you means that you traded. My interpretation is that is doesn't, and assigned units can initiate trades with unassigned units. (For instance I have Eirika take Seth's Steel Sword in Chapter 1 because there's no prep menu yet.) In this case it's moot, as the alternative interpretation is even less permissive, and neither permits unassigned units initiating trades.

I wanted to define rules such that, once the prep menu became available, unassigned units could be used for only two purposes: recruiting units, and digging up desert items (because 1 it's traditional, 2 getting Warp and Swiftsoles makes a huge difference, and 3 it would be too unfriendly to RNG agnostic playstyles). It's tricky, because you can't just say "unassigned units may only be deployed to recruit," because what if I need another unit to keep that unit out of combat? And if a unit is deployed and can move, at the very least it can affect enemy AI even if it never enters combat. I tried to list out as many disallowed actions as I could while still allowing everything that would be necessary to acquire assigned units with minimal added pain.

Perhaps that's getting too much into the fine print? Anyway, the Robe is a lot less necessary than Whip, and I doubt it will provide any unfair advantage.