Roster Prediction Game!

[Johann]

I figured since everyone loves guessing who's gonna be in, we could have a little fun with it. Write up who you think will be in the game as either full characters, echoes, DLC, a general series rep prediction, or AT/boss. Based on how accurate your prediction is, we can assign points, and check out how it's looking with every reveal/direct. This is less about arguing who will be in the game and more about just having some low-stakes fun (try being the most wrong, it might be fun!). Let's break down the scoring and defining each group:

• Yes implies that the character is in, and appears in the capacity described. As an example, if you had guessed Ridley as a Newcomer, that'd be a Yes.
• No implies the character does not appear in any of the listed possibilities. A character who makes no appearance, or only appears as a trophy, for example, would be a No.
• Partial points can be awarded if they do appear in the game in another listed capacity.
• Newcomer: Character is revealed with its own number on the roster (not an echo) at launch. Partial points are awarded if the character is revealed to be an Echo or appears later on as DLC (echo or newcomer). No penalty if the character appears as an AT or boss.
• Echo: Character is revealed with ε symbol. Which character they are an echo of does not affect the score. Partial points if they are actually a full character, appear as DLC (echo or newcomer). No penalty if they appear as a boss or AT.
• New Rep: Any character from a specific series will appear in some capacity. This must be limited to a certain series, not a company, so saying "Final Fantasy character" is ok, but "Square Enix character" is not. This can be a series that already appears in the game (ie: "new pokemon"). You only get a point if this character is playable at launch (echo or newcomer).
• DLC: Character is eventually revealed to be playable, either as an echo or newcomer. No points are awarded if it's a series-wide guess. Scores will change over time due to DLC likely being a series of reveals over a long time.
• AT/Boss: Character is revealed to be an Assist Trophy or Boss (including both stage bosses like Metal Face, or seemingly Story Mode bosses like Rathalos appears to be). No penalty if the character appears in another capacity, including as DLC eventually. Pokemon from the Pokeball item also part of this category.
• Mii Costumes: Since we don't really know what's going on with those, I've decided not to count them for now, and if they return, a character who only appears as a costume would be a No.
• (?): For Newcomers and Echoes only, you can earn/lose half the points if you mark the characters with a ?, to show that you're not totally certain about their odds.
• Characters who end up appearing in a shared character slot will still get full score (ie: if you had guessed Charizard, who ended up being brought back in with Pokemon Trainer).
• You do not have to guess the entire roster.

Please make a list using bullet points or numbers for easier reading, and include the character's series and the capacity they will appear in. Here's mine as an example:

• Elma (Xenoblade): Newcomer
• New Pokemon Rep
• Geno? (Mario): Newcomer
• Dixie Kong (DK): Newcomer
• Ken (Street Fighter): Echo of Ryu
• Shadow (Sonic): Echo of Sonic
• Impa (Zelda): Echo of Sheik
• Medusa (Kid Icarus): Echo of Palutena
• Heihachi (Tekken): DLC
• Rex (Xenoblade): DLC
• Black Knight (Fire Emblem): AT/Boss
• Dr. Robotnik (Sonic): AT/Boss
• Porky (EarthBound): AT/Boss
• Rayquaza (Pokemon): AT/Boss

[Anomalocaris]

I'll be pretty conservative in my predictions.

• Ken (Street Fighter): Echo
• New Pokemon Rep: Newcomer
• Rex (Xenoblade): DLC Newcomer
• Edelgard (Fire Emblem): DLC Newcomer
• Geno (Super Mario Bros.): DLC Newcomer

I'm not going to try and predict future bosses, I sure as hell wouldn't have guessed Dracula or Rathalos. The Mashedpotato Samurai is very unpredictable with those.

Also I wager there's only two remaining newcomers (Echo or otherwise) to be revealed for the base roster. Not just because of the box theory, but because it feels in-line with the remaining time to launch and Sakurai's previous statement about not expecting too many newcomers. If I'm correct, is that worth points?

[Johann]

10 minutes ago, Anomalocaris said:

Also I wager there's only two remaining newcomers (Echo or otherwise) to be revealed for the base roster. Not just because of the box theory, but because it feels in-line with the remaining time to launch and Sakurai's previous statement about not expecting too many newcomers. If I'm correct, is that worth points?

Only if you guess who! You're at much lower risk of losing points for guessing a low number though, if that's any consolation.

[Anomalocaris]

3 minutes ago, Johann said:

Only if you guess who! You're at much lower risk of losing points for guessing a low number though, if that's any consolation.

I have my two newcomer guesses in my post. I was just wondering if the statement "we're only getting two more newcomers on the base roster" is worth points if correct.

[Johann]

2 minutes ago, Anomalocaris said:

I have my two newcomer guesses in my post. I was just wondering if the statement "we're only getting two more newcomers on the base roster" is worth points if correct.

Technically no, but you'd still end up scoring higher than anyone who guessed more than you by default, so it ends up working out the same way.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Ken (Street Fighter): Echo of Ryu
Incineroar (Pokemon): Newcomer
Geno (Mario?): Newcomer
Shadow (Sonic the Hedgehog): Echo of Sonic
Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong): DLC Newcomer
Skull Kid (Zelda): DLC Newcomer
Waluigi (Mario): DLC Newcomer
Lyn (Fire Emblem): DLC Newcomer
Isaac (Golden Sun): DLC Newcomer
Elma (Xenoblade): DLC Newcomer
Funky Kong (Donkey Kong): DLC Echo of Donkey Kong
Medusa (Kid Icarus): DLC Echo of Palutena
Ms. Pac-Man (Pac-Man): DLC Echo of Pac-Man
Black Knight (Fire Emblem): AT/Boss
Rayquaza (Pokemon): AT/Boss
Porky (Earthbound): AT/Boss
Dr. Robotnik (Sonic the Hedgehog):AT/Boss

Edited September 22, 2018 by Fire Emblem Fan

[Johann]

13 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

Geno (Mario?): Newcomer

Just to clarify, are you marking Geno with the ? to say you're uncertain, or marking the Mario series with a ? to say you're not sure if he'd count as part of that?

[Fire Emblem Fan]

9 minutes ago, Johann said:

Just to clarify, are you marking Geno with the ? to say you're uncertain, or marking the Mario series with a ? to say you're not sure if he'd count as part of that?

The latter, I'm uncertain if Geno counts as a Mario newcomer.

[Zapp Branniglenn]

• Ken (street fighter):Echo Fighter
• Shadow (Sonic): Echo Fighter
• New (not FF7) Square Enix character: Newcomer
• New Zelda rep: Newcomer
• Bandana Dee (Kirby): Newcomer
• Black Knight (Fire Emblem): DLC Echo Fighter
• Galacta Knight/Morpho Knight/Dark MetaKnight (Kirby): DLC Echo Fighter
• Hilda (Zelda) DLC Echo Fighter
• Impa (Zelda) DLC Echo Fighter
• Big Boss (Metal Gear Solid): DLC Echo Fighter
• Octolings (Splatoon): DLC Echo Fighter
• Jeanne (Bayonetta): DLC Echo Fighter
• James McCloud (StarFox): DLC Echo Fighter
• Dry Bowser (Mario): DLC Echo Fighter
• Ms Pac-Man: DLC Echo Fighter
• New Pikmin Echo Fighter: DLC Echo Fighter
• Plusle/Minun (Pokemon): DLC Echo Fighter
• Rex/Pyra/Both (Xenoblade): DLC Newcomer
• New ARMS rep: DLC Newcomer
  • Echo Fighter of the new ARMS rep: DLC Echo Fighter
• Edelgard (Fire Emblem): DLC Newcomer
• Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong): DLC Newcomer. 
• Sylux (Metroid): DLC Newcomer
• Banjo & Kazooie (Banjo Kazooie):DLC Newcomer
• Heihachi Mishima (Tekken): DLC Newcomer

I still think they'll get realllly crazy with Echo Fighters as post-release DLC the way they got crazy with the 36 Mii Fighter outfits in Smash 4. And I just slammed down a few half baked ideas for echo fighters since only Sakurai knows the true definition of an echo fighter and it's hard for me to come up with fully satisfying ideas when the definition is always changing with each new example.

Edit: Oh I forgot to put down boss predictions:

• Death Egg Robot (Sonic)
• Grima (Fire Emblem)
• Metroid Prime (Metroid)
• Magalor (Kirby)
• Scornet Maestro (Pikmin)
• Cragalanche (Kid Icarus)

Edited September 22, 2018 by Glennstavos

[Fabulously Olivier]

Base Roster Newcomers

Geno

Incineroar (unfortunately)

Isaac

 

Base Roster Echo Fighters

Ken (Ryu)

Shadow (Sonic)

Dixie Kong (Diddy Kong)

 

DLC Newcomers

Isaac

Elma

Edelgard

Rex & Pyra/Mithra

Banjo & Kazooie

Crash Bandicoot

Spyro

Lloyd Irving

Heihachi Mishima

Spring Man

 

DLC Echo Fighters

Zack (Cloud)

Jeanne (Bayonetta)

Ms. Pac Man (Pac Man)

Gardevoir (Mewtwo)

Octolings (Inklings)

 

AT/Boss

Black Knight

Rayquaza

Porky

Dr. Robotnik

Hades

Medusa

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Oh yeah, I'd also add

Crash Bandicoot (Crash Bandicoot): DLC Newcomer

to my list

[NSSKG151]

Suppose I will join in as well. Can't wait to see how much I get wrong.

• Pokemon Gen 7 Rep: Newcomer 
• Elma or Cross (Xenoblade X): Newcomer
• Terra Branford (Final Fantasy): Newcomer
• Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong Country): Newcomer
• Excitebiker (Excitebike): Newcomer
• Shadow (Sonic): Echo Fighter of Sonic
• Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei): DLC New Rep
• Springman (ARMS): DLC Rep
• New Fire Emblem Rep: DLC Newcomer
• Eevee (Pokemon): DLC Newcomer
• Rex (Xenoblade 2): DLC Newcomer
• Phoenix Wright (Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney): DLC Newcomer
• KOS-MOS (Xenosaga): AT
• Duster (Mother 3): AT
• Azura (Fire Emblem): AT
• Caeda (Fire Emblem): AT
• Black Knight (Fire Emblem): AT/Boss
• Grima (Fire Emblem): Boss
• Zygarde (Pokemon): Boss
• Death Egg Robot (Sonic the Hedgehog): Boss
• Phantoon (Metroid): Boss
• Beast Ganon (Legend of Zelda): Boss
• Petey Piranha (Super Mario): Boss
• King Boo (Luigi's Mansion): Boss
• Sephiroth (Final Fantasy): Boss

Edited: Added Phoenix Wright to my list

Edited October 3, 2018 by NSSKG151

[Johann]

1 hour ago, NSSKG151 said:

Duster (Mother 3): AT

Oh yeah, that was one I had in mind a while back. I recall there being rumors of a Duster AT back in Brawl during the demo days.

[NSSKG151]

17 hours ago, Johann said:

Oh yeah, that was one I had in mind a while back. I recall there being rumors of a Duster AT back in Brawl during the demo days.

I vaguely remember rumors and leaks for Brawl outside the ones concerning Geno, Bowser Jr and Cloud. The only reason I think Duster could be an AT is because the rest of Ness' and Lucas' main party members are shown in Ultimate one way or another. Plus I could see him being another AT that can chase down foes by trapping them with wall staples and then walking up and kicking but can still be KO'd.

[Johann]

31 minutes ago, NSSKG151 said:

I vaguely remember rumors and leaks for Brawl outside the ones concerning Geno, Bowser Jr and Cloud. The only reason I think Duster could be an AT is because the rest of Ness' and Lucas' main party members are shown in Ultimate one way or another. Plus I could see him being another AT that can chase down foes by trapping them with wall staples and then walking up and kicking but can still be KO'd.

Yeah, I was thinking the same exact thing

[Zapp Branniglenn]

Yeah throwing staples that pin characters to the ground is perfect for Duster. I could also see him being one of the non-combat ATs where he runs over to each ledge on a stage and builds staple ladders that can assist your recovery until they disappear. The only problem with that idea is the existence of stages that have no ledges, such as Tortimer Island. 

Edited September 23, 2018 by Glennstavos

[Book Bro]

1. Ken (Street Fighter): echo 

2. Incineroar (Pokemon): newcomer

3. Elma (Xenoblade): newcomer

4. New Square Enix character: newcomer

5. Isaac (Golden Sun): newcomer

6. Shadow (Sonic): echo

7. Medusa (Kid Icarus): echo

8. Dixie (DK): DLC echo

9. Rex and Pyra (Xenoblade): DLC newcomer

10. Malos (Xenoblade): DLC echo

11. Pokemon DLC newcomer 

12. Pokemon DLC echo

13. Heihachi (Tekken): DLC newcomer 

14. Jack Frost (SMT): DLC newcomer

15. Impa (Zelda): DLC echo

16. ARMS DLC newcomer 

Edited September 25, 2018 by Book Bro

[NSSKG151]

Ack, just realized I totally forgot to put Phoenix Wright in as a DLC newcomer on my list. I'm going to go edit my previous post and add him in if that's not a problem.

Edited October 3, 2018 by NSSKG151

[Johann]

yeah go for it