New Heroes: Fire and Ice!

[Ice Dragon]

45 minutes ago, Astellius said:

As for Loki, she was on the other banner because she scored highly in the CYL polls. That said, they could've just included someone else on the other banner and put her here. This just seems like poor planning. These banners are planned out months in advance, but this one was completely phoned in. It's not like they had to commission anyone to do the art, since these OCs were already in the game.

"Someone else"... like who?

The highest-ranking female character in CYL 2 that isn't already in the game, wasn't already on the banner and its associated Grand Hero Battle, and isn't a weapon type that doesn't yet exist (beast or Laguz) was Charlotte at #67.

For comparison, Loki placed #10, Owain #26, Kliff #33, and Aversa #41.

 

Oh, and Surtr placed #62, making the highest-ranking male character satisfying the same conditions. (Radiant Dawn Haar also beat Charlotte at #64.)

[Magical Glace]

2 hours ago, The Priest said:

Likewise. FEH's issue of powercreep has gotten much worse when it first began and now it's plainly visible.
Just spent more time on farming for Diarmuid to forget FEH gradually.

I wish I knew what changed in IS's management when they started making Ayra.  The game was so good about containing powercreep prior to that, there were strict rules units followed.  Since then it's just been IS feeding a broken arbitrary scoring system, and pushing powercreep far too fast for the game to keep up.

Diarmuid is a good boy and a worthy investment, I swear!  DW will buff him eventually right?  RIGHT???

[Shiki]

22 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

"Someone else"... like who?

The highest-ranking female character in CYL 2 that isn't already in the game, wasn't already on the banner and its associated Grand Hero Battle, and isn't a weapon type that doesn't yet exist (beast or Laguz) was Charlotte at #67.

To be fair, Charlotte doesn't even qualifiy under your conditions because she is technically in the game as a seasonal alt. It would be Louise at #72 if you're looking for a female representative.
... which in my opinion needs to die at some point because IS can't keep making banners where they have to have at least 1 woman but that's a discussion for another day.

Haar with combined votes scores around #46 which is close enough to Aversa tbh. Considering how good Aversa is it wouldn't have been a farfetched idea to switch out Owain for Aversa in the GHB spot (because same color) and have Kliff, Aversa and Haar as the Brave Redux banner.
Sure, it's technically a 3:1 ratio but nobody said that would matter for the banner ratio.

[Troykv]

44 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

"Someone else"... like who?

The highest-ranking female character in CYL 2 that isn't already in the game, wasn't already on the banner and its associated Grand Hero Battle, and isn't a weapon type that doesn't yet exist (beast or Laguz) was Charlotte at #67.

For comparison, Loki placed #10, Owain #26, Kliff #33, and Aversa #41.

 

Oh, and Surtr placed #62, making the highest-ranking male character satisfying the same conditions. (Radiant Dawn Haar also beat Charlotte at #64.)

Yeah! That was exactly my point; after Aversa you need to scroll down A LOT to get another Non-Playable Character, and even more to get a female one; Aversa is barely outside the Top 40, the next choices are outside the Top 60, that is too far from the "Top Choices" the Brave Redux wants to represent for it's good will.

I wonder now if Owain appearing in the Brave Redux Banner is also a matter of compromise with the image of Brave Redux because the next choices would have been Haar; which is outside the Top 60 too as you said.

After all this thinking I ended up to the conclussion that the only character that would have been here if the choices were done in CYL1 way it would be Kliff; because the other characters are outside the Top 40 or are "Alts".

Edited November 20, 2018 by Troykv

[RexBolt]

2 minutes ago, Troykv said:

Yeah! That was exactly my point; after Aversa you need to scroll down A LOT to get another Non-Playable Character, and even more to get a female one; Aversa is barely outside the Top 40, the next choices are outside the Top 60, that is too far from the "Top Choices" the Brave Redux wants to represent for it's good will.

The only reason we have to scroll down a lot is because of the broken voting system for the CYL. If characters present in multiple games weren't having their votes split the placements would be very, VERY, different.

[Troykv]

1 minute ago, RexBolt said:

The only reason we have to scroll down a lot is because of the broken voting system for the CYL. If characters present in multiple games weren't having their votes split the placements would be very, VERY, different.

If that was the case, Marth would have won CYL2, or at least being Top 2; I wonder if he would still be the Legendary Character that month.

[Shiki]

3 minutes ago, RexBolt said:

The only reason we have to scroll down a lot is because of the broken voting system for the CYL. If characters present in multiple games weren't having their votes split the placements would be very, VERY, different.

Actually it wouldn't change that much.

There aren't that many Tellius or Archanea characters in the Top 100. Sure, some would have been featured within them (like Jill) but they still wouldn't place high within the first 100 spots.

Unless you mean the voting behaviour itself would have changed which we really can't make a statement of. Considering how absurdly stacked the first 20 spots are (likely because of them showing results midway) it could have gone either way.

[Azuni]

Pretty excited seeing a 2 unit (1 green) banner, that smells like heaven for someone sniping green. I'm also very happy that Surtr got in via a banner instead of being a GHB/TT reward, which would have made him compete against (and lose to) monsters like Duel Skill-wielding Aversa/Young Azura who are my priority for Grails.

[Rezzy]

Does anyone have the math on the odds of pulling the focus units?  It looks like the focus percentage doc hasn't been updated for a while.

[Ice Dragon]

8 minutes ago, Rezzy said:

Does anyone have the math on the odds of pulling the focus units?  It looks like the focus percentage doc hasn't been updated for a while.

7.9% Surtr. 5.5% Ylgr.

34% of no greens in one session. 20% of no blues in one session.

[Ice Dragon]

39 minutes ago, RexBolt said:

The only reason we have to scroll down a lot is because of the broken voting system for the CYL. If characters present in multiple games weren't having their votes split the placements would be very, VERY, different.

If you combine games (I'm keeping Ylisse Tiki separate from Akaneia Tiki, but merging all Annas), all you'd get for the top Brave Redux contenders are

• Loki (10)
• Owain (27, down from 26)
• Kliff (36, down from 33)
• Aversa (46, down from 41)
• Haar (52, up from 64 and 219)
• Jill (69, up from 129 and 139)
• Surtr (71, down from 62)
• Charlotte (74, down from 67)
• Ilyana (76, up from 131 and 168)
• Bruno (78, down from 71)
• Louise (79, down from 72)
• Severa (80, down from 73)

Haar switches with Surtr for third- and fourth-highest males, and Jill and Ilyana come up as third and fifth for females. But Jill's position after the merge would still be below Charlotte's position before the merge.

And we've already established that going to the upper 60's is pretty much dredging the bottom of the barrel for this particular theme.

[RexBolt]

51 minutes ago, The Priest said:

 

Unless you mean the voting behaviour itself would have changed which we really can't make a statement of. Considering how absurdly stacked the first 20 spots are (likely because of them showing results midway) it could have gone either way.

Yes, that's what i'm talking about.

[Rezzy]

31 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

7.9% Surtr. 5.5% Ylgr.

34% of no greens in one session. 20% of no blues in one session.

Those are pretty good odds at least.  I've got 140 Orbs, maybe I'll get lucky.

 

Now I just have to wait for the 1 unit Banners.

[bottlegnomes]

4 minutes ago, Rezzy said:

Now I just have to wait for the 1 unit Banners.

Plus two sets of GHBs and TT characters to balance it out right?

But for real, if they do an Alm/Celica's Army type thing, I wouldn't mind this continuing for the same reason those were way better than Blazing Shadows. I just really hope they don't drop it to 2 and not makeup the other characters somewhere else. How fast they're adding characters already feels glacial.

@Ice Dragon Are you calculating chances of a color to appear per orb as (color pool size/total pool size) + focus percent or is there more to it that I'm missing? Just asking out of curiosity.

[Astellius]

1 hour ago, Ice Dragon said:

"Someone else"... like who?

The highest-ranking female character in CYL 2 that isn't already in the game, wasn't already on the banner and its associated Grand Hero Battle, and isn't a weapon type that doesn't yet exist (beast or Laguz) was Charlotte at #67.

For comparison, Loki placed #10, Owain #26, Kliff #33, and Aversa #41.

 

Oh, and Surtr placed #62, making the highest-ranking male character satisfying the same conditions. (Radiant Dawn Haar also beat Charlotte at #64.)

These conditions, however, are totally artificial, and the actual banner itself already doesn't even conform to them. Owain was already in the game in the form of Odin. But, even if they had to follow those conditions and we're making an exception for the Owain/Odin situation, I'd have no objection to them going so far down on the list as to reach Haar, Charlotte, or Louise. They'll likely have to do something like that next year, should they want to continue with this type of banner. Or else they might need to include alts of popular characters as well. Really, I also would've been fine with the inclusion of RD Mia, or Severa. I don't see any of this as problematic.

Moreover, the inclusion of beast units is long overdue. They've dragged their feet long enough on that one that I don't give them a pass for it. And I rather expect that, if they don't include them by the time CYL3 comes around, the player base will force their hands by rallying around someone like Selkie.

[Ice Dragon]

44 minutes ago, RexBolt said:

Yes, that's what i'm talking about.

Even if merging split votes were to happen, it wouldn't make much of a difference as far as Farfetched Heroes-type banners would be concerned.

Of the characters that qualified for this one, Haar, Jill, and Ilyana were the only ones that came even remotely close, and I highly doubt Haar could have garnered 25% more votes than he did just to match Kliff. Jill also would have needed 25% more votes simply to break into the top 50 and catch up to Aversa.

 

16 minutes ago, bottlegnomes said:

Are you calculating chances of a color to appear per orb as (color pool size/total pool size) + focus percent or is there more to it that I'm missing? Just asking out of curiosity.

P(pulling Ylgr)
= P(pulling focus character) / [number of focus characters]
= 3% / 2
= 1.5%

P(umbrella is blue)
= [number of blue focus characters] × P(pulling focus character) / [number of focus characters]
+ [number of blue 5-star characters] × P(pulling 5-star character) / [number of 5-star characters]
+ [number of blue 4-star characters] × P(pulling 4-star character) / [number of 4-star characters]
+ [number of blue 3-star characters] × P(pulling 3-star character) / [number of 3-star characters]
= (1 × 3% / 2) + (26 × 3% / 102) + (29 × 58% / 108) + (25 × 36% / 96)
= 1.5% + 0.8% + 15.6% + 9.4%
= 27.2%

P(pulling Ylgr | umbrella is blue)
= P(pulling blue Ylgr) / P(umbrella is blue)
= P(pulling Ylgr) / P(umbrella is blue)
= 1.5% / 27.2%
= 5.5%

 

5 minutes ago, Astellius said:

Owain was already in the game in the form of Odin.

Tell that to anyone who wanted Owain or wants Severa in the game or wants Inigo to get a normal version.

And if you consider Owain and Odin to be the same character, then do you consider each Anna to be a different character from the others and therefore ineligible for merging votes?

Edited November 20, 2018 by Ice Dragon

[bottlegnomes]

@Ice Dragon Oh right, non-focus percentages are a thing. Thanks!

[Baldrick]

Re: Farfetched Heroes, Micaiah was the highest scoring female not in the game at the time, above Mia and Lute. Yes, she was being planned for an RD banner, but Loki was obviously being planned for this banner.

2 hours ago, Azuris said:

Getting two unit banners for the rerun side banners would be amazing ("Healer with Prf weapons" banner please.)

Why stop at two? One unit banners would give even better odds. You could even rotate them daily, doing away with the free pull to keep it from being overly generous.

Just keep New Heroes banners with as many units as possible.

[Troykv]

2 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

Re: Farfetched Heroes, Micaiah was the highest scoring female not in the game at the time, above Mia and Lute. Yes, she was being planned for an RD banner, but Loki was obviously being planned for this banner.

Why stop at two? One unit banners would give even better odds. You could even rotate them daily, doing away with the free pull to keep it from being overly generous.

Just keep New Heroes banners with as many units as possible.

I think the problem is the fact IS didn't expect to get so many beasts units as the second, third and even fourth most wanted females after Loki... You would need to scratch the middle of the barrel to get the potential Female Choice; at it would feel so random for a banner that already feels a bit random it's line-up, but at least is easy to understand the idea.

[Baldrick]

7 minutes ago, Troykv said:

I think the problem is the fact IS didn't expect to get so many beasts units as the second, third and even fourth most wanted females after Loki...

So put Selkie on as a dagger unit. As long as you announce beforehand that beasts will eventually be added, people will be mollified, right?

On beast units, I'd have to agree with Astellius.

Edited November 20, 2018 by Baldrick

[Lewyn]

15 hours ago, Sentinel07 said:

I view the OC's similarly, hence why I always look forward to them.

Yeah essentially the characters from other games are like spotpass characters, they are side characters that have nothing to do with the story (except Xander I guess).  

6 hours ago, Michelaar said:

I really appreciate your positivity here! We need that in this community (Not a bash to anyone in particular)

Anyway, this banner is pretty cool. I don't see why everyone is steaming angry about a 2 person banner, it looks great to me. Surtr looks busted as shit and Ylgr looks adorable as always. Since it won't seem I will get shit from the adrift banner I guess i'll try for one of these.

I just think there is a lot to be excited about here.

2 very powerful units with very powerful (new) skills, only our 2nd blue dagger user, no alts on banner, original characters.  Then likely GHB will be original character and legendary too, meaning Forging bonds will focus on these characters.  This could mean OG Veronica, Bruno, Hrid!  We also got very little on Surtr and Ylgr so this will be a chance to really flesh out those characters more learn about their motivations and in essence make the main story better as well. 

[Icelerate]

6 minutes ago, Troykv said:

I think the problem is the fact IS didn't expect to get so many beasts units as the second, third and even fourth most wanted females after Loki... You would need to scratch the middle of the barrel to get the potential Female Choice; at it would feel so random for a banner that already feels a bit random it's line-up, but at least is easy to understand the idea.

I see no reason why IS can't add characters far from the top 20 if all the higher ranking characters have already been added.  

[Troykv]

44 minutes ago, Astellius said:

These conditions, however, are totally artificial, and the actual banner itself already doesn't even conform to them. Owain was already in the game in the form of Odin. But, even if they had to follow those conditions and we're making an exception for the Owain/Odin situation, I'd have no objection to them going so far down on the list as to reach Haar, Charlotte, or Louise. They'll likely have to do something like that next year, should they want to continue with this type of banner. Or else they might need to include alts of popular characters as well. Really, I also would've been fine with the inclusion of RD Mia, or Severa. I don't see any of this as problematic.

Moreover, the inclusion of beast units is long overdue. They've dragged their feet long enough on that one that I don't give them a pass for it. And I rather expect that, if they don't include them by the time CYL3 comes around, the player base will force their hands by rallying around someone like Selkie.

 

3 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

So put Selkie on as a dagger unit. As long as you announce beforehand that beasts will eventually be added, people will be mollified, right?

On beast units, I'd have to agree with Astellius.

Yeah; if for some reason the release of Beast Units ends up being hold up (again), people will go nuts with the CYL3.

2 minutes ago, Icelerate said:

I see no reason why IS can't add characters far from the top 20 if all the higher ranking characters have already been added.  

It's a problem about presentation; the characters in the middle road aren't characters that are presented in the Top 40 Characters (the characters that were show in the Mid-Results and Full Results).

[Baldrick]

2 minutes ago, Icelerate said:

I see no reason why IS can't add characters far from the top 20 if all the higher ranking characters have already been added.  

By my count, Aversa was the 23rd female, so they have already broken that rule anyway. Unlike Brave Heroes, Farfetched Heroes didn't have any strict guidelines regarding what ranking characters were to be added.

[Icelerate]

2 minutes ago, Troykv said:

It's a problem about presentation; the characters in the middle road aren't characters that are presented in the Top 40 Characters (the characters that were show in the Mid-Results and Full Results).

Sure, but would people be in an uproar if characters like Haar, Jill, Louise, Charlotte, etc. were to get added next year despite not being in the top 20 of their gender? I'm pretty sure a banner of alts of the most popular characters in CYL3 that weren't Brave Heroes would be less satisfactory. I sure don't want two full alt banners related to CYL.