December 2018 Legendary Banner Expectations

[Johann]

NEXT MONTH'S THREAD:

Please use the most recent thread if you intend to make posts about future banners. Feel free to use this thread for analysis of trends, etc.

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Holy smokes, there's so much on the horizon that it's hard to make any kind of concrete predictions. Let's look at what we can determine or wildly assume:

LEGENDARIES/MYTHICS: The following are confirmed based on the notifications:

• Legendary Marth
• Legendary Hector
• Fjorm
• Eir

With Hrid's banner being the first to feature 5 Legendary heroes, it is not impossible that we end up getting two new Legendary heroes. As absurd as this may sound, remember that early December will also launch Book III, and it's reasonable to think that we see at least one new OC Legendary upon its arrival (like with Fjorm). If this is the case, this hero would appear sooner than the actual banner. Perhaps we'd get a free version early and then they'd appear on the banner later in the month? As a crazy person, I speculate that this may be the case, with this hypothetical new hero appearing alongside an established mainline FE character who also gets a new Legendary version.

Edit: Eir is confirmed (via notifications) to return for this banner

SEASONALS: The 3 seasonal rule not only stays true, but seems to be reinforced by the notion of having 5 Legendaries, leaving the remaining 4 slots for other 5* heroes.

• Summer Takumi - I'm 100% certain that either he or Summer Linde will appear, but not both.
• Summer Linde - See above.
• Summer Tiki (Young) - Very good odds, next in line for red seasonals.
• Summer Camilla - Very good odds, next in line for blue seasonals.
• Hoshidan Summer Heroes - Likely still too soon. If one does make it in, it'd be Elincia, but I'd still doubt that would happen just yet. They also may do what they did with Performing Arts and spread them across multiple banners, in which case Elincia would likely appear first (next green in line) and Xander would be last (still gotta get through Takumi and Linde).

REGULAR 5★ HEROES: With 5 Legendaries and 3 seasonals, we'd be getting 4 regulars. However, with CYL2 freshly added to these banners, it's probable that one of these 4 slots is assured to be a CYL2 hero for the next year. If true, this may help figure out who will appear in these slots. Also, in the latest banner, no regular heroes from previous Legendary banners appeared, suggesting that it'll be newer units from here on.

• Flora - High odds. Next red unit in line.
• Laegjarn - Decent odds. With Laevatain's jump to the front of the line, it's possible that another Muspell hero will make a similar jump. Yet, part of my thinking--too-hard-about-this brain suspects that it was a choice to give Hrid's release more characters from his source game (ridiculous theory alert).
• Brave Celica - Decent odds, though I suspect that if they stick to adding only one CYL2 per banner, then Veronica would likely take precedence due to the lack of colorless to use.
• Olwen (green tome) - Very good odds, being the next in line for greens. I also suspect that they would want to put her, a comparatively less popular unit, on a banner with Hector compared to the other possibilities.
• Flying Nino - Good odds, she might not have competition with Olwen this time unless there's a surprise green Legendary hero.
• Brave Ephraim - Very low odds, only because Olwen and Nino haven't appeared yet. Also seems really unlikely to me that they'd put him on the same banner as Legendary Hector
• Lewyn - Very low odds, but they do surprise us sometimes. He's pretty far down the list due to how many greens there are.
• Helbindi - Extremely low odds, since he's also really far down the list. It'd take a Muspell Miracle for him to make an appearance.
• Quan - High odds, he's the next blue in line. I figure it'd take a surprise extra blue Legendary for him to not show up, or Ophelia cutting ahead of him.
• Ophelia - Decent odds, hurt by Quan preceding her. Almost certainly only one spot for regular blues this season.
• Brave Veronica - Very good odds, as there are few colorless lined up barring seasonals. Her chances are boosted by the likelihood that older colorless won't be appearing, making her next in line.
• Loki - Low odds. If Veronica doesn't appear, it's likely Loki would in her place, being the next following her. Seems a little too soon though.

MY PREDICTED LIST: This is my own guess based on everything above.

• Legendary Marth
• Summer Tiki
• Flora
• Legendary Hector
• Olwen (G)
• New Legendary Xander!?!?
• Fjorm
• Summer Camilla
• Quan
• Eir
• Brave Veronica
• Summer Linde

WHO'S THAT POKEMON NEW HERO? So many old rules and theories are out the window. What planet are we even on anymore? As I stated above, I am suspecting that we get a surprising 2 new Legendary heroes: An OC revealed at the launch of Book III, and a mainline FE character revealed for this banner as per usual. Let me throw out some absurd theories and you can all shake your head and say "what happened to you"

• New Colorless OC - To celebrate Book III, a la Fjorm, we get a freebie character. I suspect that this character will be a healer for the simple reason that newer players don't have many opportunities to get healers (Veronica being optional that many new players may overlook). That's really all I got, Book III could have who knows what in store. Eir, the new colorless Mythic hero, will appear on this banner.
• Xander - As an axe flier or cavalry, wielding Bolverk. My rationale here is based on a few things: 1) Fates is (by IS's standards) overdue for another Legendary, and it certainly won't be Camilla, Corrin, or Azura (if justice exists); 2) Green is the least populated color for Legendaries after colorless, so it seems a bit more likely, and I don't know who else would fit unless they add more wind tomes or green dragons; 3) The silly notion that they want to put new Legendaries on a banner alongside characters from the same game, as they did with Eirika and Hrid. That last point is more likely a coincidence, though they also had Legendaries to appear alongside-- if this is an actual thing, then it'd really make more sense for March when Ryoma returns, but I think IS was on too much of a Fates kick to not get him out there.
• Eliwood - As some kind of, I dunno, blue mage armor or something. Who knows. I'm not really putting a lot of thought into this, I just think that they might round out the Blazing Blade trio with a non-sword choice for Eliwood, and put him on the same banner as Hector (and Nino?) for funsies.
• Who the hell knows, make your own wacky guesses

FUTURE ANALYSIS: We're in a weird spot since there's so many possibilities ahead, making it near impossible to predict what the plans are.

• December: Marth, Fjorm, Hector, Eir
• January: Ike, Eirika, Tiki, Lyn, New Mythic
• February: Hrid, Ephraim, Gunnthra, Robin, New Legendary
• March: Ryoma, Lucina, New Mythic
• Robin's reign of terror (or fun times, if you want her) has ended. With her not returning til February, it suggests that we may end up seeing not one, but two colorless heroes, one in December and one in January.
• Hrid's release is the first time we haven't had a hero match the current season, complicating predictions further (or it would be if characters' elements were something we could ascertain better).
• Someone @ me if there's datamining that shows a change in seasons, or further seasons revealed edit: Wind was the intended season and it's been changed accordingly
• Post Book III Launch Edit: Not only is Eir confirmed to return for December, but we will be getting a Mythic hero in January, Legendary in February, and alternating like that from there

Previous threads: 

• June 2018 Banner Expectations
• July 2018 Banner Expectations
• August 2018 Banner Expectations
• September 2018 Banner Expectations
• October 2018 Banner Expectations
• November 2018 Banner Expectations

Edited January 2, 2019 by Johann

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I honestly have no idea what to expect for December's Legendary, any and all supposed patterns have been broken. I originally thought Micaiah might be December's Legendary, but now I'm thinking she might be January's to go along with the Radiant Dawn banner. I suppose maybe Xander, Eliwood, a new OC for Book III, or something else entirely is very possible. Man, I dunno. If December's Legendary really is colorless and Micaiah really doesn't come until January, then I suppose maybe Leif could come as a healer in reference to his mother?

[Johann]

6 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

I originally thought Micaiah might be December's Legendary, but now I'm thinking she might be January's to go along with the Radiant Dawn banner.

I too suspect that she'll be January's, especially if the "Radiant Dawn heroes in January" thing is anything to put too much stock in go by

[Arcphoenix]

In the post, you keep saying "next in line" as if you know the order units get placed on legendary banner. Has there been some pattern IS has been following or are you guessing?

Edited November 29, 2018 by Arcphoenix

[colossus86]

10 minutes ago, Arcphoenix said:

In the post, you keep saying "next in line" as if you know the order units get placed on legendary banner. Has there been some pattern IS has been following or are you guessing?

Generally units, especially seasonals, show up in the order of their release. For example we should be getting the Hoshidan Summer units before we get this year's Halloween units.

[Venmi]

I'm hoping for a Tellius legendary, but it makes sense that they could appear in January.  Tellius has a lot of good colorless options: healer Micaiah or Elincia (Micaiah please, since Ike was the other Tellius legendary) or a heron like Reyson (I want a colorless flying dancer laguz...).  So, my hope is we'll get one in the next two months.

I also saw someone mention Leif in the other thread- if we've got Tellius coming in January, I fully support a staff wielding Leif for December.  Start spreading out those legendaries!

[Vaximillian]

Queen Caeda with Wing Bow, please. Or Queen Caeda with Wing Axe on a Dragon, please.

And Veronica for good measure.

[colossus86]

18 minutes ago, Venmi said:

 I also saw someone mention Leif in the other thread- 

Master Knight Leif will save us all.

[daisy jane]

• Legendary Marth
• Summer Tiki
• Flora
• Legendary Hector
• Olwen (G)
• New Legendary Xander!?!?
• Fjorm
• Summer Camilla
• Quan
• New Legendary Colorless (brand new OC)
• Brave Veronica
• Summer Takumi

if this is the list I am so screwed. 
I want one of each in Red, one of each in Green. Quan and Veronica and Summer takumi LOL
thought I'd rather Elincia. (but maybe she'd usher in the RD banner?)

Edited November 29, 2018 by daisy jane

[Zapp Branniglenn]

This sounds like it may be a gooood banner for me. I better start digging into PvE content I've been neglecting for years. Those GHB Elite quests are about to expire too.

[Florete]

3 hours ago, Johann said:

it certainly won't be Camilla, Corrin, or Azura (if justice exists)

Sorry, man.

 

But as for predictions, mine are always wrong so maybe I'll make some predictions to ensure they won't happen.

[Arcphoenix]

4 hours ago, Johann said:

• Robin's reign of terror (or fun times, if you want her) has ended. With her not returning til February, it suggests that we may end up seeing not one, but two colorless heroes, one in December and one in January.

You know, I'm starting to think that IS is just incapable of making a proper colorless legendary without changing its color.

 

I'm not at all going to be surprised if we get a colorless tome or colorless range 1 physical legendary

[Sentinel07]

I'm still waiting and hoping for a Jugdral or Valentia Legendary, as the only ones with none after a whole year of this. I mean, so far the breakdown is...

Heroes- 3 (Fjorm, Gunnthra, Hrid)

Mystery of the Emblem- 2 (Marth, Tiki)

Gaiden/Echoes: Shadows of Valentia- 0

Genealogy/Thracia- 0

Binding Blade/Blazing Blade- 2 (Hector, Lyn)

Sacred Stones- 2 (Ephraim, Eirika)

Path of Radiance/Radiant Dawn- 1 (Ike)

Awakening- 2 (Robin, Lucina)

Fates- 1 (Ryoma)

[redlight]

Red is looking good if that's the case

[mampfoid]

4 hours ago, daisy jane said:

if this is the list I am so screwed. 
I want one of each [...]

Pretty much this. 

If the two new Legendaries aren't too cool to miss, I'll probably skip this banner. Book III/Christmas will rob me of orbs anyway. 

Two new Legendaries would be something new, right? Perhaps something totally different will get the open slot. 

[Diovani Bressan]

I don't know about the idea of 2 new legendary heroes in December... it looks weird for me.

But your prediction looks good! From the ones you predicted, I don't have Flora, Summer Camilla and Quan.

[Mau]

If that prediction comes true I'm either gonna stick to red for a better Young Tikini, or colorless for a Veronica since most F2P guides use her and I don't have one. Mostly depends on the colorless legendary I guess, as usual these last few months I'm hoping for bow Alm, would def pull for him.

Edited November 29, 2018 by Mau

[Vaximillian]

Our next 8% is Micaiah with a staff, calling it now.

[Stercus]

5 minutes ago, Vaximillian said:

Our next 8% is Micaiah with a staff, calling it now.

I shudder to think of what a Wrazzle Dazzle unit can do with Micaiah's usual attack numbers.

[Vaximillian]

10 minutes ago, Stercus said:

I shudder to think of what a Wrazzle Dazzle unit can do with Micaiah's usual attack numbers.

Right now we’ve got Genny with 35/25, Mikoto with 35/32, and Maribelle with 35/33. Considering that regular Micaiah clocks in at 35/28 and Dancing Micaiah at 34/20, it wouldn’t be that farfetched to expect something in the ballpark of 38/26 from the hypothetical Sage Micaiah.

OR Micaiah might come in January along with the RD banner, and this time we’re getting a light-aligned Alm with a bow because people apparently like Alm or something. This is possible too.

Edited November 29, 2018 by Vaximillian

[Fire Emblem Fan]

With the possible leak of Light and Dark blessings, I now think a new OC for December might be the most likely candidate for the next Legendary and I think they'll be a Light hero. And Micaiah will be the first Dark one, in January, since if I remember correctly she had a Dark affinity in RD.

[Fabulously Olivier]

3-13 archer.

[SuperNova125]

Spoiler

I believe it will be one or even two new book iii OCs. Considering book iii is coming in December they will focus on this and possibly light or darkness ones as it was kinda spoiled by learning with Shareena. Micaiah will be on January I think with the rest of her tellius friends. Just please give us a free unit I.S.

 

[Icelerate]

12 hours ago, Vaximillian said:

Queen Caeda with Wing Bow, please. Or Queen Caeda with Wing Axe on a Dragon, please.

And Veronica for good measure.

Weren't you complaining about legendary Hrid not doing enough to deserve being a legendary and here you are asking for Caeda who pales in comparison to Hrid who managed to infiltrate Muspell by himself and escape from Surtr and his army? 

If we are no longer sticking to lords, how about L! Tauroneo? 

[daisy jane]

1 hour ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

With the possible leak of Light and Dark blessings, I now think a new OC for December might be the most likely candidate for the next Legendary and I think they'll be a Light hero. And Micaiah will be the first Dark one, in January, since if I remember correctly she had a Dark affinity in RD.

 

 

7 minutes ago, SuperNova125 said:

  Hide contents

I believe it will be one or even two new book iii OCs. Considering book iii is coming in December they will focus on this and possibly light or darkness ones as it was kinda spoiled by learning with Shareena. Micaiah will be on January I think with the rest of her tellius friends. Just please give us a free unit I.S.

 

both of those are truly intriguing.