New Heroes: Rulers Of The Laguz

[mcsilas]

Brave Celica likes the Herons' healing support.

Shame Ranulf and Caineghis get left out but I'm wondering if we'l get a Gallean (?) banner in the future instead which could have a combination of Ranulf, Lethe, Caineghis and maybe Skirmir?. Mordecai and Gifca would be nice but they don't seem as popular.

I hope we get Janaff sometime, even though they pretty much used up all the popular birds. At least would be a nice demote laguz.

Edited January 9, 2019 by mcsilas

[Garlyle]

Although Reyson seems to be the obvious demotion from the banner, Nailah would be better for the game balance. Nailah is the perfect Anti-Veronica with her skillset, every skill she has supports to counter Veronica who is the meta right now. I'd rather see Nailah running around rather than a 3 move flying dancer at this point.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Garlyle

[Sylphid]

I'm really excited for everyone but Leanne (she's nice too though), so opening the orb floodgates. So glad I resisted the New Year's Muspell and Nifl units! Free Naesala is just a big fat cherry on top of everything too, I think I know where my grails will go.

 

I do agree with @Anacybele that Ranulf would have been nice though. As would have been Muarim.

Also, powercreep is kinda dumb.

[DefyingFates]

With SS4 and Sturdy Impact having bonus effects on top of Hone Atk 4 giving 7 Atk instead of 6 (and Impact defying maths too), Death Blow 4 is really sticking out like a sore thumb here (because it's less sore than the others).

Given the Laguz's transformation conditions are in their weapons, maybe future Laguz will have different conditions (e.g. Ranulf/ the 3DS beasts could transform near human allies)?

I also think it's neat that everyone's Prfs start at 14 (like ranged Prfs) but becoming the standard melee stat of 16 once they transform. A cute touch~

It sucks that this is a 4 person banner, meaning the odds are much worse than 3-person ones but I'm happy beasts are finally here and look really fun! It sucks that obvious demote Reyson is so blatantly lacking in skills though :/

Here's hoping Naesala is good and we don't have to wait another year for more Laguz (I'm hoping for Lethe and Mordecai myself)!

Edited January 9, 2019 by DefyingFates

[Jotari]

5 minutes ago, DefyingFates said:

With SS4 and Sturdy Impact having bonus effects on top of Hone Atk 4 giving 7 Atk instead of 6 (and Impact defying maths too), Death Blow 4 is really sticking out like a sore thumb here (because it's less sore than the others).

Given the Laguz's transformation conditions are in their weapons, maybe future Laguz will have different conditions (e.g. Ranulf/ the 3DS beasts could transform near human allies)?

I also think it's neat that everyone's Prfs start at 14 (like ranged Prfs) but becoming the standard melee stat of 16 once they transform. A cute touch~

It sucks that this is a 4 person banner, meaning the odds are much worse than 3-person ones but I'm happy beasts are finally here and look really fun! It sucks that obvious demote Reyson is so blatantly lacking in skills though :/

Here's hoping Naesala is good and we don't have to wait another year for more Laguz (I'm hoping for Lethe and Mordecai myself)!

How does a fourth character lower the odds? As I understand it it's a flat 3% (initially) regardless. Do you mean it lowers the odds of getting all of them? Because that's not really lowering the odds, that's just means there's more content out there to get. 

[Nowi's Husband]

Pulling for Nailah, Nowi needs her B skill, to counter healers and sweeps.  Also any of them would be welcome pity breakers in the future, loved the Tellius games.  Doubtful any will be demoted, even Reason with his lower skill set is still flying singer.  At least Naesala is free.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Nowi's Husband

[Etria]

Nnnnnh, I love the art of all of them, but especially Reyson. Sexy motherfucker, that dude. I think I want all of them. <3

[DefyingFates]

5 minutes ago, Jotari said:

How does a fourth character lower the odds? As I understand it it's a flat 3% (initially) regardless. Do you mean it lowers the odds of getting all of them? Because that's not really lowering the odds, that's just means there's more content out there to get. 

You have a lower chance of getting any specific focus unit the more focus units there are.

[Fabulously Olivier]

24 minutes ago, DefyingFates said:

You have a lower chance of getting any specific focus unit the more focus units there are.

Wouldn't that only hold true if there were multiple focus units on a single color? Because they're all on different colors here.

[mampfoid]

Do we know already if beasts hit RES or DEF? 

I just checked Galeforce and there seems to be no restriction for beasts ... 

[Landjager]

The Laguz transform method is really interesting, and I like it a lot. It definitely seems to promote an even/odd turn synergy but doesn't force it, as well as a mixed transformers/non-transformers hybrid team.

Unless my math is wrong, Nailah has 29 -31 Atk. If it is 31, and if she has 164 BST, she might end up with the same stat spread as Joshua. I doubt it will be the exact same but i could see it being very similar. She'll probably have the highest Res of any melee unit who comes naturally with the ability to counterattack regardless of range. I want three of her, but I will probably only get one. I will only have about 400 orbs for this banner. Everyone else is cool; I would never mind accidentally getting one, but I will be sniping blue I think this time. Has anyone done the calculations for the individual rates yet?

[redlight]

Oh my god. Just listened to the JP trailer out of curiosity and Reyson is voiced by Akira Ishida. IS, please give us the option to switch language audio and I might consider reinstalling the game

[Othin]

So, looking back on past "normal" banners since the New Heroes alts started, and counting side units associated with them:

• FE10: 3 new (Micaiah, Sothe, Oliver), 1 alt (Zelgius)
• FE8: 4 new (Myrrh, L'Arachel, Lyon, Marisa), 1 alt (Eirika)
• FE13: 3 new (F Morgan, M Morgan, Gerome), 1 alt (Chrom)
• FE5: 4 new (Leif, Nanna, Finn, Saias), 2 alts (Reinhardt, Olwen)
• FE14: 3 new (F Kana, M Kana, Kaze), 2 alts (Hinoka, Shigure)
• FE4: 4 new (Ishtar, Lene, Ares, Julius), 0 alts
• FE7: 4 new (Karla, Legault, Canas, Linus), 1 alt (Nino)
• FE13: 4 new (Sumia, Maribelle, Libra, Walhart), 1 alt (Olivia)
• FE4: 5 new (Quan, Lewyn, Silvia, Ethlyn, Jamke), 0 alts
• FE14: 5 new (Flora, Ophelia, Nina, Silas, Garon), 0 alts
• FE10: 5 new (Nailah, Tibarn, Leanne, Reyson, Naesala), 0 alts

It really looks like things have been getting better since they had time to see the reactions to past New Heroes alts and adjust accordingly.

Adrift is still bizarre, but hopefully they learned their lesson.

1 hour ago, Jotari said:

How does a fourth character lower the odds? As I understand it it's a flat 3% (initially) regardless. Do you mean it lowers the odds of getting all of them? Because that's not really lowering the odds, that's just means there's more content out there to get. 

With four characters on a 3% banner, each character is in 0.75% of orbs. With three characters on a 3% banner, each character is in 1% of orbs.

43 minutes ago, Etheus said:

Wouldn't that only hold true if there were multiple focus units on a single color? Because they're all on different colors here.

No, sharing a color is basically irrelevant. They don't split the focus rate between them, that's not how the game rolls summons.

On a standard 3% banner with no pity rate, the rates are 36% for 3*, 58% for 4*, 3% for focus, and 3% for off-focus 5*. So when the game is generating an orb in a summon sequence, first it rolls to determine which of those four categories the unit falls into, then it rolls to determine which of the units in that category it'll be, with all of them having an equal chance. Then it displays it as an orb marked with the color of the unit within.

The result of this is that when multiple focus units share a color, the likelihood of getting a focus unit in that color is correspondingly higher, at the expense of the colors without focus units.

[XRay]

45 minutes ago, Etheus said:

Wouldn't that only hold true if there were multiple focus units on a single color? Because they're all on different colors here.

If there is only one Focus unit, there is a 3% chance he or she will appear per circle. If there are two Focus units, each unit has a 1.5% chance to appear. If you want a specific Focus unit, having more Focus units is bad since an individual's chance of appearing is lower.

[Kiran_]

Ooooh, finally beast units. That means my favorites will be added relatively soon! But glad we're getting a free unit since while I love all of them, I don't have any specific connections to these ones personally from the games, so I can save my orbs! But will definitely use the tickets to see if I get any of them (for fodder). That Null Range move and the Sturdy Impact look perfectttttt, I'm going to have so much fun choosing the perfect unit for them to sacrifice themselves too if I'm lucky enough to get them on any of the free pulls!

[Fabulously Olivier]

19 minutes ago, XRay said:

If there is only one Focus unit, there is a 3% chance he or she will appear per circle. If there are two Focus units, each unit has a 1.5% chance to appear. If you want a specific Focus unit, having more Focus units is bad since an individual's chance of appearing is lower.

I see. In that case, I will consider myself fortunate that I want every focus unit on this banner.

[Garlyle]

1 hour ago, mampfoid said:

Do we know already if beasts hit RES or DEF? 

I just checked Galeforce and there seems to be no restriction for beasts ... 

My money is on DEF, just because of the attacks of Tibarn and Nailah. Reyson's attack might look otherwise, but it's wings, not breaths, so it can be targeting on DEF.

[mampfoid]

4 minutes ago, Garlyle said:

My money is on DEF, just because of the attacks of Tibarn and Nailah. Reyson's attack might look otherwise, but it's wings, not breaths, so it can be targeting on DEF.

Yeah, I was sure it was DEF until I saw Reyson. 

[Ice Dragon]

3 hours ago, mampfoid said:

How do you like the fact level 4 A-skills get pretty strong B-Skill effects on top? For me it gets annoying to check which of the enemies skills fiddles with follow-ups. 

I personally find it interesting. One of the problems with the current skill system is just how varied the effects of B skills are. Therefore, running a particular B skill prevents you from running a large number of different alternatives. The most common example is the fact that so many units want to run Quick Riposte, but doing so locked them out of other useful skills like Guard or Shield Pulse until the Sacred Seal for Quick Riposte was released.

Putting B-skill-type effects on A skills adds more interesting options and also slightly changes how skill effects compete with each other. In particular, A skills compete most heavily with Distant Counter, which makes this one of the more significant buffs to units with Distant Counter on their weapons, most of which suffer from competition themselves against stronger weapons like Slaying weapons.

 

As for checking enemy skills, the yellow border is enough to tell me to pay attention. After that, it's just knowing what skill does what, which is something we already have to do.

 

1 hour ago, Jotari said:

How does a fourth character lower the odds? As I understand it it's a flat 3% (initially) regardless. Do you mean it lowers the odds of getting all of them? Because that's not really lowering the odds, that's just means there's more content out there to get. 

1 hour ago, Etheus said:

Wouldn't that only hold true if there were multiple focus units on a single color? Because they're all on different colors here.

It's how conditional probability works, i.e. calculating your probability of an event happening given that you already know more information.

In particular, the 3% focus rate we are given is before we know the color of the character, but when we pick an umbrella to summon, that's after we know the color of the character. Because we know more information about the system than the base probabilities give, it affects the probabilities.

 

Here's an example:

Say you have 10 marbles: 1 shiny red, 1 shiny blue, 2 red, 2 blue, 2 green, and 2 white.

This means that the probability that you pick a shiny marble without any other knowledge of the marble you have picked is 20% (2 in 10). You can think of this as the "base" focus rate for this marble banner with 2 "characters".

However, if you're first shown the color of each marble, but not whether or not it's shiny, you now know more information about the system. If you grab a red or blue marble, your chance of picking a shiny marble is now 33% (1 in 3), whereas if you grab a green or white marble, your chance of picking a shiny marble is 0% (0 in 2).

 

Now, let's change the 10 marbles: 2 shiny red (representing the same character), 2 red, 2 blue, 2 green, and 2 white.

This means that the base focus rate is still 20%, but is only for a single character instead of 2 different characters.

If you're shown the color of each marble before picking, if you grab a red marble, your chance of picking a shiny marble is now 50% (2 in 4) instead of 33% before on the 2-character banner. If you grab a blue, green, or white marble, your chance is 0% (0 in 2).

 

One more time: 1 shiny red, 1 shiny blue, 1 shiny green, 1 shiny white, 5 red, 4 blue, 3 green, and 4 white.

The base focus rate is still 20%, but it's now split across 4 characters. I've adjusted the distribution of the non-shiny marbles to reflect what the standard summoning pool looks like in Heroes with more reds and fewer greens.

If you pick a red marble, you have a 17% (1 in 6) chance of picking a shiny. Blue and white have a 20% (1 in 5) chance. Green has a 25% (1 in 4) chance.

 

As you can see, as I increased the number of "focus characters" on my marble banner while keeping the overall focus rate the same (at 20%), the sniping rate for individual focus characters decreases. With only one focus character, I had a 50% sniping rate because it was all pooled into a single color. With two, it decreased to 33%. With four, it decreased to 20%.

If you think of the example above of one focus character as two characters sharing a color, you'll notice that it's lower than two characters on different colors with a 25% sniping rate each (totaling 50%).

 

If you're familiar with the Monty Hall paradox, this is a similar principle where knowing more about your system changes the probabilities of the outcomes.

 

1 minute ago, Etheus said:

I see. In that case, I will consider myself fortunate that I want every focus unit on this banner.

That actually makes it worse. For a simple case, imagine trying to get each of 4 things at 25% chance each compared to getting each of 2 things at 50% each. For the former, you'd need a minimum of 4 tries with a higher chance of duplicates as you collect more. For the latter, you'd only need a minimum of 2 tries with a smaller chance of duplicates before finishing the set.

[Fabulously Olivier]

2 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

That actually makes it worse. For a simple case, imagine trying to get each of 4 things at 25% chance each compared to getting each of 2 things at 50% each. For the former, you'd need a minimum of 4 tries with a higher chance of duplicates as you collect more. For the latter, you'd only need a minimum of 2 tries with a smaller chance of duplicates before finishing the set.

Okay, let me rephrase that. I want any of these characters, not necessarily one of all.

[Ice Dragon]

3 minutes ago, Etheus said:

Okay, let me rephrase that. I want any of these characters, not necessarily one of all.

In that case, it's still worse than a banner with fewer characters, but the difference is smaller.

The idea is that if you're pulling all colors indiscriminately (even the colors that have no focus characters), you'll always get exactly the stated chance (3% without pity bonus).

If you choose only the color with the highest chance of pulling a focus character (if there are two characters sharing a single color, then pick that, otherwise, pick the color with the fewest non-focus characters, usually green), you'll always have a better chance than the base stated chance.

And when there are fewer characters on the banner, the chance of each individual character increases, meaning you're still better off on a banner with fewer characters.

So if you want "any" of the characters, the best way is to focus on the one with the highest rate, in this case, Reyson (who unfortunately is the most likely to demote) due to being green.

 

Just being technical.

[Tenzen12]

Doesn't really matter. Point is, percentage rate up ISN'T for unit but for ORB that contain rate up units. Basicaly if game determine session has one rate up unit under marble you have 1:4 chance it will be let's say blue one (Nailah) and 3:4 it will be red, colourless or green marble (Tibarn, siblings). If Lenne wasn't in banner chance that rate up unit will be under blue marble and not red or green will rise to 1:3

 

[Corrobin]

Why does Nailah sound Australian?

[Jotari]

1 minute ago, Corrobin said:

Why does Nailah sound Australian?

Clearly Hatari is Australia. We've been fooled into thinking they were wolves all this time when really they were dingos!

[mampfoid]

... so koala beasts are possible?